I often don't post in depth analysis here, but breakout wide receivers and indicators fascinate me - and this hurricane scare has created some extra free time tonight.
I took a small sample size of deep sleeper breakout wide receivers (2008, 2009, 2010) from Ryan Hester's WR Wakeup Call article and tried to apply my own indicators to possibly find deep sleepers this year.
I feel there are different indicators for different situations. Perhaps the height and offensive categories mentioned by Hester fit the mold for the non-deep sleepers, but I think there are different indicators at work for deeper Sleepers like Brandon Lloyd, Sidney Rice, and Antonio Bryant. After looking at these players, I came to the conclusion that new qb situations (or past qb success with said receiver) and semi-high draft round (4 or above) may be better indicators.
Sidney Rice
You could argue that Brett Favre was the primary reason for Rice's success.
Brandon Lloyd
Originally, I thought Orton was the reason for Lloyd's success, but after further investigation, it looks as they were together a few years earlier. After even more investigation (and wikipedia stats), it looks as they they had decent reception to games started ratios back then. in 2008, Lloyd started 5 games (but played in 11) and had 26 receptions (approximately 5 per game started) and in 2009 Lloyd started 1 game (played in 2) and had 8 receptions. Subtle and easy to spot in hindsight but the clues may have been there.
Antonio Bryant
For Bryant, I had to dig around a bit. This was his first season with TB after some legal, drug, and off field issues. Garcia was coming off of a pro bowl season, but was benched for Griese for 5 or so games. Based on the game logs, it looks like he generally scored much better with Garcia as the QB instead of Griese.
Draft Rounds
Bryant and Rice were 2nd round picks while Lloyd was a 4th rounder.
I read something about Denarius Moore recently that made me think about how wide receivers can perform much better in different situations. I'm pretty sure it was a FBGuys article - the gist of it was that Moore was a crisp route runner in college, but the team may not have had the skill level to show off his talents adequately. At the NFL level, his crisp route running is showing as the quarterbacks are able to get him the ball in practices and scrimmages. Maybe some wide receivers with talent don't have the surrounding talented quarterbacks or teams to get them the ball. All of the players had high draft marks (4th round or higher) and had new situations where different quarterbacks were able to get them the ball. Maybe there are a few wide receivers that can fit this mold this year.
The Logic
The logic here is that the wide receivers have talent (as demonstrated by their draft position), but they haven't had a quarterback that was able to get them the ball in the past, or perhaps their quarterback lost confidence in them. If a wide receiver has talent, then hopefully a different quarterback can help take advantage of that talent.
The List
In the list below, I didn't add Tavaris in this list because he's looked awful (in my opinion) this preseason and i don't expect BMW or Sidney Rice to be values at their current ADP.
New Quarterbacks
Donovan McNabb - Minnesota
Bernard Berrian - he had a few nice catches tonight. He had another one that he almost caught in the end zone on a bounce. Favre helped Sidney Rice's value as a deep threat in Minnesota. With McNabb's cannon, perhaps Berrian could be in a for a big year. Berrian came into the league as a 3rd round pick.
Kevin Kolb - Arizona
Doucet/Roberts - Don't want to go into a ton of detail about these guys because they're hot sleeper picks, but they were both 3rd round picks. Without a huge TE vulture in Arizona, I think they can both have value in Garcon/Collie/Wayne/Clark all have value in Indy.
Matt Hasselbeck - Tennessee
Nate Washington - undrafted free agent - doesn't fit my criteria
Damian Williams - round 3 - Matt Waldman mentioned this guy as a guy to watch last season. He was a third round pick, and has great hands and runs solid routes. These are attributes that Matt Hasselbeck can help take advantage of.
Lavelle Hawkins - round 4 - He had 72 receptions his senior year at Cal playing second fiddle to Desean Jackson. Cal traditionally produces good NFL players. He also has really good athleticism.
Matt Stafford - Detroit
Nate Burleson - round 3 - Stafford isn't a new quarterback, but he's played so infrequently, that he might as well be one. I like Burleson. Stafford started weeks 8 and 9 last season - during those weeks, Nate Burleson was the 11th best WR in ppr leagues. I think that's enough to warrant sleeper consideration this season.
This is the brief list I put together in the past hour or so. Feel free to add names to the list or curse me out for my choices.
Edited to add: I focused on quarterbacks in new locations - I'm sure there are a few wide receivers in new locations that can and should be added to the list. (MSW perhaps?)
I took a small sample size of deep sleeper breakout wide receivers (2008, 2009, 2010) from Ryan Hester's WR Wakeup Call article and tried to apply my own indicators to possibly find deep sleepers this year.
I feel there are different indicators for different situations. Perhaps the height and offensive categories mentioned by Hester fit the mold for the non-deep sleepers, but I think there are different indicators at work for deeper Sleepers like Brandon Lloyd, Sidney Rice, and Antonio Bryant. After looking at these players, I came to the conclusion that new qb situations (or past qb success with said receiver) and semi-high draft round (4 or above) may be better indicators.
Sidney Rice
You could argue that Brett Favre was the primary reason for Rice's success.
Brandon Lloyd
Originally, I thought Orton was the reason for Lloyd's success, but after further investigation, it looks as they were together a few years earlier. After even more investigation (and wikipedia stats), it looks as they they had decent reception to games started ratios back then. in 2008, Lloyd started 5 games (but played in 11) and had 26 receptions (approximately 5 per game started) and in 2009 Lloyd started 1 game (played in 2) and had 8 receptions. Subtle and easy to spot in hindsight but the clues may have been there.
Antonio Bryant
For Bryant, I had to dig around a bit. This was his first season with TB after some legal, drug, and off field issues. Garcia was coming off of a pro bowl season, but was benched for Griese for 5 or so games. Based on the game logs, it looks like he generally scored much better with Garcia as the QB instead of Griese.
Draft Rounds
Bryant and Rice were 2nd round picks while Lloyd was a 4th rounder.
I read something about Denarius Moore recently that made me think about how wide receivers can perform much better in different situations. I'm pretty sure it was a FBGuys article - the gist of it was that Moore was a crisp route runner in college, but the team may not have had the skill level to show off his talents adequately. At the NFL level, his crisp route running is showing as the quarterbacks are able to get him the ball in practices and scrimmages. Maybe some wide receivers with talent don't have the surrounding talented quarterbacks or teams to get them the ball. All of the players had high draft marks (4th round or higher) and had new situations where different quarterbacks were able to get them the ball. Maybe there are a few wide receivers that can fit this mold this year.
The Logic
The logic here is that the wide receivers have talent (as demonstrated by their draft position), but they haven't had a quarterback that was able to get them the ball in the past, or perhaps their quarterback lost confidence in them. If a wide receiver has talent, then hopefully a different quarterback can help take advantage of that talent.
The List
In the list below, I didn't add Tavaris in this list because he's looked awful (in my opinion) this preseason and i don't expect BMW or Sidney Rice to be values at their current ADP.
New Quarterbacks
Donovan McNabb - Minnesota
Bernard Berrian - he had a few nice catches tonight. He had another one that he almost caught in the end zone on a bounce. Favre helped Sidney Rice's value as a deep threat in Minnesota. With McNabb's cannon, perhaps Berrian could be in a for a big year. Berrian came into the league as a 3rd round pick.
Kevin Kolb - Arizona
Doucet/Roberts - Don't want to go into a ton of detail about these guys because they're hot sleeper picks, but they were both 3rd round picks. Without a huge TE vulture in Arizona, I think they can both have value in Garcon/Collie/Wayne/Clark all have value in Indy.
Matt Hasselbeck - Tennessee
Nate Washington - undrafted free agent - doesn't fit my criteria
Damian Williams - round 3 - Matt Waldman mentioned this guy as a guy to watch last season. He was a third round pick, and has great hands and runs solid routes. These are attributes that Matt Hasselbeck can help take advantage of.
Lavelle Hawkins - round 4 - He had 72 receptions his senior year at Cal playing second fiddle to Desean Jackson. Cal traditionally produces good NFL players. He also has really good athleticism.
Matt Stafford - Detroit
Nate Burleson - round 3 - Stafford isn't a new quarterback, but he's played so infrequently, that he might as well be one. I like Burleson. Stafford started weeks 8 and 9 last season - during those weeks, Nate Burleson was the 11th best WR in ppr leagues. I think that's enough to warrant sleeper consideration this season.
This is the brief list I put together in the past hour or so. Feel free to add names to the list or curse me out for my choices.
Edited to add: I focused on quarterbacks in new locations - I'm sure there are a few wide receivers in new locations that can and should be added to the list. (MSW perhaps?)
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