Sell High Studs? (1 Viewer)

[mr roboto]

I've held Turner a bit too long IMO.

When do you guys think of selling a stud who is not yet at that decline point? Guys like Brady, Roddy White, or backs like Turner and Jackson maybe 2 years ago?

Is it mostly about the strength of your team? ie win now and keep them, rebuild and sell them?

 

[az_prof]

I've held Turner a bit too long IMO. When do you guys think of selling a stud who is not yet at that decline point? Guys like Brady, Roddy White, or backs like Turner and Jackson maybe 2 years ago?Is it mostly about the strength of your team? ie win now and keep them, rebuild and sell them?

I don't think there is a hard and fast rule. Part of it depends on how your team is doing and where you are at competitively. I have Roddy and know I probably should have sold him last season. But I didn't because I knew I had a team that could win the trophy--and I did end up in the championship game and took second. Had I traded him for younger players I would have been a low end playoff team at best. On the other hand, if I had looked at my team and realized that I was a long shot to make the playoffs then I would have traded Roddy. Ideally you want to unload a WR around age 30, a RB around age 27, a QB around age 32 and a TE around age 29. But if you are in position to win a trophy why would you trade a guy just because he hit that threshold? That's giving up a sure opportunity for a future, possible opportunity.

 

[Bruce Hammond]

I get heat sometimes from some people for my dynasty rankings because I follow a policy of downgrading players in the post-prime and soon-to-be decline phase of their careers when the stats don't yet show it. And if you look at dynasty rankings around the web you'll see most still ranking Brady top 3-5 in their rankings, WRs in their 30s like Andre Johnson and Welker and Roddy as top 2-10, etc.

Yet if you try to trade those players at those guys' ranking values you'll get nothing but rejections, and if you draft in a start up draft using their rankings your team will be old and hopelessly in trouble two years from now. We only have so much draft or trade capital, and to invest that capital in assets with 1-2 good years left, while paying full price, makes little sense to me. If one's time horizon is just 2 years he will never be competitive long term in dynasty leagues.

Dynasty owners MUST think and plan ahead, and not be afraid to pass on or trade away a player who just had a good year because he seems to still have a lot left in the tank. The problem is, most times you don't see the decline coming because he was so good so recently and he's a stud player everyone loves. And when it happens it's too late. Age is your best clue. Don't trust media or players who say they have 4-5 great years left. They don't know. Trust history.

I'd seriously lower expectations at about 33 for QB, 29 for RB, 32 for WR and 31 for TE. Note that in general prime is 27-29 for QB, 24-25 for RB, 26-28 for WR, and 25-27 for TE. QBs decline slowest in general, then WRs, then TEs, then RBs.

So, somewhere in that period between prime and the fall is your time to act. As you get in that stage between prime and the "seriously lower expectations" ages I mentioned above, remembering that the positions decline at different rates, it may be time to look for players approaching their prime and make a deal before the drop off has become apparent to all and trade value is gone.

Superstars may extend beyond those lowered expectation ages, but it's still best to consider it a bonus if they have elite years more than a couple years beyond then. And IMO the risk they will soon be valueless is much greater than the chance they will continue on being elite. People love to point to a player who beat the odds and hold that up as evidence to rationalize why this guy or that guy will be the next exception. But we are in the game of predictions, and in the long run your best bet is to go with, not against, the odds. Father Time gets them all, and I'm not going to be the guy picking Brady for example as QB 3-5 in dynasty at age 35.

 

[Chazzhawk]

There is no exact answer, I think you can ride quarterbacks, as long as they have been healthy for the most of their career until the end. While drafting or watching the waiver wire for the next great one to have on your bench.

Running backs I like the sell high theory, each running back is different though, in my opinion the end of the this year/start of next year is going to be the last time you will get fair value for Ray Rice. He was given the starting job early in his career and the Ravens have had deep runs in the playoffs, to add to his carries. Other guys like Thomas Jones didn't get a lot of carries early in his career so it was better to ride him into the ground, because you would never get fair value for a 30 + back that produced the way he did.

Receivers are tricky too because we have seen more guys like Moss, Owens, Harrison and others produce well into their 30's. So selling high on them might be around the 31 or 32 age if they have been pretty healthy for their career. (Not like Andre Johnson, I think selling him high passed over a year ago.)

Tight ends seem to start losing it around 32 unless your name is Tony Gonzalez. Dallas Clark looked really old last year, Marcus Pollard got old fast back in the day, Gates has had major injury problems since turning 30.

 

[chickensoup]

The simple answer: don't get into a situation where you have to trade a guy or your team has nothing behind him. While its nice to be the cool guy with all the young studs on it the fact is vets win you the league now and all it takes to not be caught in a Shaun Alexander situation is some planning, specifically at RB. The deeper your league the better it is to have aging vets because you can have multiple outs.

In my dynasty startup this year (35 players IDP start 16 guys) I took 9 RB. Some older (SJax) some middle(Charles Hillis) some younger (Pead). I have outs if SJax falters.

To me it's far better short and long term to be balanced than youth crazy. Remember, young guys are erratic. Some are one year wonders. Some rookies have all the talent in the world but end up in a bad situation, or get hurt and are this years Mark Ingram.

 

[todisco1]

Yet if you try to trade those players at those guys' ranking values you'll get nothing but rejections, and if you draft in a start up draft using their rankings your team will be old and hopelessly in trouble two years from now. We only have so much draft or trade capital, and to invest that capital in assets with 1-2 good years left, while paying full price, makes little sense to me. If one's time horizon is just 2 years he will never be competitive long term in dynasty leagues.

Dynasty owners MUST think and plan ahead, and not be afraid to pass on or trade away a player who just had a good year because he seems to still have a lot left in the tank. The problem is, most times you don't see the decline coming because he was so good so recently and he's a stud player everyone loves. And when it happens it's too late. Age is your best clue. Don't trust media or players who say they have 4-5 great years left. They don't know. Trust history.

"Hopelessly in trouble" seems to me like it would only apply if you weren't stocking up on youth talent to back up the aging vets. I mean sure, if you're starting RBs are Gore and SJax and you have no young RBs behind them you could be in trouble in the near future, but I always adjust my strategy based on what's on my team - if I have studs with only a year or two left in the tank, I usually find their trade value is not nearly what they are worth on your team. As long as I have some young guys behind them who I feel have a good shot at breaking out, I'm happy riding the vets into the ground.

 

[chickensoup]

Yet if you try to trade those players at those guys' ranking values you'll get nothing but rejections, and if you draft in a start up draft using their rankings your team will be old and hopelessly in trouble two years from now. We only have so much draft or trade capital, and to invest that capital in assets with 1-2 good years left, while paying full price, makes little sense to me. If one's time horizon is just 2 years he will never be competitive long term in dynasty leagues.

Dynasty owners MUST think and plan ahead, and not be afraid to pass on or trade away a player who just had a good year because he seems to still have a lot left in the tank. The problem is, most times you don't see the decline coming because he was so good so recently and he's a stud player everyone loves. And when it happens it's too late. Age is your best clue. Don't trust media or players who say they have 4-5 great years left. They don't know. Trust history.

"Hopelessly in trouble" seems to me like it would only apply if you weren't stocking up on youth talent to back up the aging vets. I mean sure, if you're starting RBs are Gore and SJax and you have no young RBs behind them you could be in trouble in the near future, but I always adjust my strategy based on what's on my team - if I have studs with only a year or two left in the tank, I usually find their trade value is not nearly what they are worth on your team. As long as I have some young guys behind them who I feel have a good shot at breaking out, I'm happy riding the vets into the ground.

Exactly. Everyone should feel comfortable with that IMO. To me it makes no sense giving up 3 or 4 years of good solid production for perceived production. Setting an arbitrary age to trade studs at usually leaves your team full of speculative talent and you end up in the middle of the pack in perpetuity. The teams that are successful long term, year in year out do two things as far as I've seen:1) they are not afraid to hold onto an older player unless they can get near market value for them. Trading Andre for Green is a no brainier trade but noone makes that offer so why take Stevie Johnson for him when you can just stock up on younger players through other trades?

2) they are not afraid to package deal hype players for proven players. This allows them more room on their bench for waivers guys and grabbing unknown guys who could be the next hype players as kickers in trades.

 

[Tanner9919]

isn't it time to include Brady in the sell-high stud list? 35 yr old immobile QB, sacked 32 times last year , hit some 69 times, just begging to be walloped by a DE or LB..

he's taken a fair share of hits lately..eventually , one of those is going to pay off..

Steve Smith (Car.), is another player who is getting close to, or has already gone past his expiration date..

Peyton Manning might already be there.

 

[bigmarc27]

Play it by ear. I've had it work out both ways. Sold Larry Johnson a few years back for up and comers Greg Jennings and Deangelo Williams which worked great, but the sold Vick too early and kept Shaun Alexander until the end. Other owners know what you're doing too so you have to sell at less than market unless they're desperate. Roddy White probably has two big years left in him, but you probably couldn't get Denarius Moore for him right now.

People prefer to gamble on youth - that's what makes it fun.

 

[Shutout]

I think one of the worst things you can do is assign an age to any player position. If you are playing this game correctly then you are WATCHING what your players are doing and you have a sense. With that said, for a less-experienced owner wanting a starting point to begin watching closer, I like Bruce's guideline a lot better than AZ professors.

The golden rule is "better a year early than a year late". Self explanatory. If you are on the fence, then I would pull the trigger early and take my lumps that way because mitigating the loss is still better than zero (which is exactly what you will get at some point).

Overall, I think when you are dealing with the more proven players (the stars of the NFL), that you're actually better off being a late-buyer than a late-seller. Guys like AJ are getting written off prematurely IMO. He just happens to have a "3" in front of his age and he got hurt. People are jumping to a conclusion. There is little hope of getting anything even close to his value, but his true value is he is a guy who could easily be a top 1-5 WR this year. I'm more inclined to buy than sell, given that scenario and that is not dependent on whether I am a contender or not. If I am a contender, I buy. If I'm not, I still buy because I know that if I buy him low enough (basically, if I'm right on this one), that, worst case scenario, I will still trade him for more than I paid sometime in November when a contender comes knocking on the door of my 2-7 team. Again, this is only my theory on proven players because, let's face it, if Titus Young is having a top 15 season this year and AJ is having a top 12 season...and my team sucks...then a contender is going to be drawn to the name AJ, and also know that the price to buy Titus will be more because of age, regardless of the fact that AJ is having the better season.

QBs, I think, are immune to the aging out theory. If you have a QB that you are still interested in for your fantasy team when he is in his early 30's, then that usually means that he has been pretty good for a long time. Players like that don't tend to drop off the proverbial cliff unless there is a career-ending injury (which could happen to ANY player at any time). Will there be a time when your player DOES retire or whatever? Sure. But you are playing in a dynasty. Two years ago (going on 3), I bought a 32(?) year old Brady in dynasty. The guy laughed at me when I gave him a young QB (26-27 at the time) AND a 1st. Well, the QB didn't ascend as he thought and isn't Brady and the 1st was a very late pick. And I coudn't be happier. I don't tell the story to say "I did good"..I tell it to illustrate what this guy was thinking (because he told me). He thought the age of Brady was working against him. But like I said, I think you can trust in the proven guys as long as they play.

The idea of a dynasty isn't purely to pretend you are on Wall Street. The best Dynasty teams are "layered". You have your vets, and you have developmental players, and you have your new infusion. In my experience, the best long-running dynasty teams are always the ones with a strong mix and if you ask those guys, they will generally tell you that they plan to have a shot at winning in any given year (which IS kind of the point, right?) and they rarely get into these movements where they are either completely all-in right now or thinking "just wait until two years from now".

 

[Buck Stop]

Steve Smith (Car.), is another player who is getting close to, or has already gone past his expiration date..

You didn't watch him last year did you? He basically had the last 2 or 3 seasons off since he had no QB. With Cam, he's back to an elite player. He said he plans on playing at least 3 more seasons. Is he getting old, sure, but his speed and fire is still there so he's no where near expired.

 

[todisco1]

Steve Smith (Car.), is another player who is getting close to, or has already gone past his expiration date..

You didn't watch him last year did you? He basically had the last 2 or 3 seasons off since he had no QB. With Cam, he's back to an elite player. He said he plans on playing at least 3 more seasons. Is he getting old, sure, but his speed and fire is still there so he's no where near expired.

I guess the point is you never quite know when someone will drop off the cliff. It doesn't appear that Smith has lost much of a step, but you see it happen with players reasonably often where they go from dominant to nearly worthless. I do think Smith will be good for a couple more years, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't pull down another 1k season again either. Speed can be lost in a hurry. It's not an exact science.

 

[Warhogs]

My approach really isn't to trade off really good players when they reach a certain age. It seems to me that if I am discounting a player due to age all my trading partners are discounting him even more so I never seem to have any luck moving these guys. I prefer to ride them into the ground and hope I have built a bench that has solid replacements.

The angle I try to play more is to trade the guys I think had career years regardless of age because I feel that is how I can maximize value. Chris Johnson was worth a king's ransom after his 2000 yard rushing season, now he has fallen back with the pack.

A couple of guys I would be shopping if I had them on my current clubs would be Cam Newton (I just never see his value as being higher) and Rob Gronkowski (it just seems unlikely he can be that much better than any other TE). Those are just a couple of examples. I'm not giving those guys away but if I find an owner willing to shell out a king's ransom I am selling.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I agree that building a team in a startup around a bunch of 2-year window players is obviously a bad idea.

In established leagues, though, in my experience it's much, much harder to get any value in return for players that are even remotely approaching the dropoff. There have been a lot more owners that over-value youth as opposed to the opposite in every league I've ever been in, so the best play has usually been to take advantage of this. I don't worry too much if I end up with the older player in a trade, as long as he is the better player. Not talking about young studs like AJ Green obviously, but the young semi-scrubs that fill the back half of rosters everywhere. The Jacquizz Rodgers types, whose value, chances are, is totally short term and situation based (behind an old guy). If I have a positional need, and can get a decent "old" starter, I'll do it all day. One decent starting season from Michael Turner, Antonio Gates, or Reggie Wayne is worth more than anyone will ever get from most "young backup" types.

 

[rickyg]

I win my dynasty league championship last season and just traded welker away for the #6 pick in our rookie draft. His price tag was a bit high and I don't like keeping pricey players. Plus, his value was sky high right now and his production can only go south from last year with the presence of Lloyd and the continued emergence o Hernandez. also the bitterness of the contract issues scared me away a bit.

Instead I'll get a cheap rook like David Wilson, Ronnie hillman, Doug martin, Kendall wright, etc.

My theory is that if you feel like the player had a terrific year but his situation has changed and you think he might have a down year then sell high.

 

[squistion]

My approach really isn't to trade off really good players when they reach a certain age. It seems to me that if I am discounting a player due to age all my trading partners are discounting him even more so I never seem to have any luck moving these guys. I prefer to ride them into the ground and hope I have built a bench that has solid replacements.

The angle I try to play more is to trade the guys I think had career years regardless of age because I feel that is how I can maximize value. Chris Johnson was worth a king's ransom after his 2000 yard rushing season, now he has fallen back with the pack.

A couple of guys I would be shopping if I had them on my current clubs would be Cam Newton (I just never see his value as being higher) and Rob Gronkowski (it just seems unlikely he can be that much better than any other TE). Those are just a couple of examples. I'm not giving those guys away but if I find an owner willing to shell out a king's ransom I am selling.

That is my approach and over the last 10 years, I have done a lot better in Dynasty leagues than the people in this forum that constantly harp about dumping a player at a certain age (like RBs at 26) and stressing "future value" and "exit value," over present value. In my experience, the people who always live 2-3 years in the future generally come up short in the current year - usually because they are lacking that older veteran depth that can come in handy (particularly when you have injuries).It is a matter of strategy and I prefer to try to win now and hope that I can replace my studs when they age out rather than have a team that looks great on paper for 2013/2014. Remember, kids: The only year you can win is the one you are currently competing in.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

As long as you're competitive and acquiring young talent along the way I think you just hang onto these guys and ride them into the ground.

Turner was a solid RB2 at 28 and 29 and is projected to be RB2 this year as well (all on a pts/game basis). No one was going to give you a stud prospect for a 28 year old Turner, so you'd either have to swing for the fences on a boom/bust prospect or trade him for someone who probably wasn't going to give you as much production you could get by keeping him.

 

[MAC_32]

My blanket strategy is

-Build with a 3 year window in mind

-Throw darts

-As darts develop, trade starters for #1's or package them for better players

-Throw more darts

-Repeat

-Then package several starters together to get stars

-If darts don't hit and starters are aging, trade from positions of strength to get younger at weak position

I would rather jump ship before it sinks, but I will only do it if I have internal replacements. i.e. I held onto Gates too long because my in-house darts didn't hit, I made a series of trades to acquire Jimmy Graham, who I then used to get Trent Richardson when I couldn't sell Gates. Like TE, my darts at RB haven't hit as it's been Chris Johnson and a whole lot of not much behind him since 2008. Before Addai died I found Hillis (then sold after 2010) then rotated in Bradshaw (who I sold after getting Richardson). Felt I needed to lock down my future at RB before Chris Johnson fades into the dark then throw a bunch of darts at RB and hope something hits this time. I'm now left a little weak at TE (Olsen/Cameron/Casey), but given the trade market for TE's I feel better about patching that together in a couple of years I have to than I would RB.

I've been able to churn out starters at QB, WR, and LB with regularity though before their prices get too high (salary cap league). As is I have a very good starting lineup (Rivers/C Johnson/Richardson/Jennings/Dez/Steve Smith/Gates), but am a little too thin/young with depth. However, if those darts connect I may have a juggernaut on my hands.

 

[Concept Coop]

There is no secret or strategy that gives you an advantage over any other strategy. It's simply maximizing career VBD and balancing that with current roster. Period.

There is no value in picking one side of the fence vs. the other (sell or ride to end). You are doing yourself a disservice by NOT looking at every player and every potential trade scenario as it's own individual collection of potential outcomes.

Both of these thought processes are self-limiting: "I need to trade MJD now, before his wheels fall of" and "I need to ride him into the ground to get the most value".

In reality, the thought process should be: "MJD has X amount of career VBD over X years left. How does that fit my current roster, and what is he worth to me? What is he worth to my league mates?" etcetera.

There is some value in trying to predict perception of player type X (27 YO RB) around your leagues. But, your finger should constantly be on the pulse of your league for EVERY player, at EVERY stage of their career.