Several Cowboys & Texans Test Positive for COVID19 (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Week 14 injury report:

Christian McCaffrey - Out (CV19)

I agree with several people above, unless we find a way to get a major handle on this thing over the next few months I sadly would not be that surprised if the season is canceled even though up until very recently I thought they'd very likely be playing.  The logistics just seem to be a nightmare.  If one player tests positive you have to have the entire team quarantine, right?  Then what do you do, cancel their games and the games of the team they played the week prior?  This will probably happen multiple times, how many games can they cancel and still keep some semblance of a season going where we don't have some teams that have played 16 games and other that have played 12.

Yep. 

though I suspect that would be more for outbreaks to multiple players.

i don’t know for sure, and this is speculative. 

But for just one player I speculate they would likely implement a much more rigorous testing regimen, do contact tracing & go from there. 

that player would be quarantined until 2 weeks after tests showed negative. If that player developed symptoms, this delays it further.

if that player happens to be say, Lamar Jackson, that might be pretty impactful on the Ravens season. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think part of the plan is trying to avoid this from happening and I do not thing it will. However, if literally half of a team had the virus, that would be a worst case scenario and then sure postponement or even a cancellation might be an option. I think most of these athletes will be fine however.

The thing is the Bundesliga has been going forward for over three weeks now with no issues whatsoever. There is constant contact on the field in a soccer game for those that may think its a "non-contact" sport. 

Bundesliga so far is a good sign but to be fair they have a much better handle on the virus than we do here.  We have 4x the population of Germany but 55x the number of new cases per day.

I suppose massive, constant testing of the players is the best thing we have going for making the season work.  How does the virus work with tests?  I know you can be asymptomatic up to 14 days but how quickly does the test pick it up?  Immediately?

 

[menobrown]

Week 14 injury report:

Christian McCaffrey - Out (CV19)

I agree with several people above, unless we find a way to get a major handle on this thing over the next few months I sadly would not be that surprised if the season is canceled even though up until very recently I thought they'd very likely be playing.  The logistics just seem to be a nightmare.  If one player tests positive you have to have the entire team quarantine, right?  Then what do you do, cancel their games and the games of the team they played the week prior?  This will probably happen multiple times, how many games can they cancel and still keep some semblance of a season going where we don't have some teams that have played 16 games and other that have played 12.

If the season is played fully I anticipate we see a lot of key players miss two plus weeks and from a fantasy angle depth is going to be more critical this year then it's ever been in the past.

As for the season my expectation is that it starts on time but getting through the entire season could be a challenge.

My best guess on how they handle some of the stuff you are referencing:

I don't even think they'd try to return if a one player positive test meant the whole team had to be quarantined. I don't view that as realistic. I believe last plan I heard was to test players every other day or 3 times a week with the less intrusive saliva test. Granted you won't test positive if you just got exposed and even after a few days of exposure current tests will only show about a 40% infection rate to those that are exposed. So just looking at this from my non-medical common sense angle. They know they can't quarantine an entire team when one guy tests positive, that's just not doable. So instead they will constantly test as well as monitor temps and likely quarantine anyone showing symptoms until at least those symptoms reside and a test does not show positive. This means during flu season and in general we should anticipate a lot of players missing games that don't test positive for Coronavirus but don't feel well.  But  I personally don't anticipate non-symptomatic players who don't test positive being quarantined even if in the presence of players that do test positive.

So in summary if you are non-symptomatic and don't test positive I think the plan is to roll the dice and play no matter if for example you are a RB and 2-3 people in the RB room tested positive.  The risk here is obvious but it's possible passing the virus while non-symptomatic and not even testing for positive yet is not as easy as once thought combined with safety features like helmet shields they are discussing I think this is the plan, if you are feeling well and not testing positive you go.

Now the worry is what  happens if large swaths of a team do end up testing positive? When a player does test positive, will most or all return in two weeks provided they feel well?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If the season is played fully I anticipate we see a lot of key players miss two plus weeks and from a fantasy angle depth is going to be more critical this year then it's ever been in the past.

As for the season my expectation is that it starts on time but getting through the entire season could be a challenge.

My best guess on how they handle some of the stuff you are referencing:

I don't even think they'd try to return if a one player positive test meant the whole team had to be quarantined. I don't view that as realistic. I believe last plan I heard was to test players every other day or 3 times a week with the less intrusive saliva test. Granted you won't test positive if you just got exposed and even after a few days of exposure current tests will only show about a 40% infection rate to those that are exposed. So just looking at this from my non-medical common sense angle. They know they can't quarantine an entire team when one guy tests positive, that's just not doable. So instead they will constantly test as well as monitor temps and likely quarantine anyone showing symptoms until at least those symptoms reside and a test does not show positive. This means during flu season and in general we should anticipate a lot of players missing games that don't test positive for Coronavirus but don't feel well.  But  I personally don't anticipate non-symptomatic players who don't test positive being quarantined even if in the presence of players that do test positive.

So in summary if you are non-symptomatic and don't test positive I think the plan is to roll the dice and play no matter if for example you are a RB and 2-3 people in the RB room tested positive.  The risk here is obvious but it's possible passing the virus while non-symptomatic and not even testing for positive yet is not as easy as once thought combined with safety features like helmet shields they are discussing I think this is the plan, if you are feeling well and not testing positive you go.

one consideration here is the stress this puts on the players.

Even in the best case scenario where a player pops positive & the team has to go massive continuous testing, while the team is isolated, that’s gonna take a mental toll on players. 

heck, many Americans couldn’t go a month without a haircut or dinner at Applebee’s. We’re talking about invasive testing (my niece is a caregiver and has had 2 tests in 2 months - said it suuuuucks. Like the swab shoved up your nose into your brain kinda feeling) happening daily, living in a bubble, with constant risk of exposure on their minds.

as with any population, some will be ok with this. Some won’t. If extreme measures are taken, I’d expect some players to say “F it - I’ll sit out a year”. 

Now the worry is what  happens if large swaths of a team do end up testing positive? When a player does test positive, will most or all return in two weeks provided they feel well?

As I’ve said before, 2 weeks is a dramatic underestimate. 

someone previously claimed an “average of 2 weeks”. That was, is, and will continue to be a false statement. 

A symptomatic case of COVID19 commonly lasts for 3 weeks. That’s the average time of symptoms to recovery.

then it’s 2 weeks of testing clear before ending quarantine.

so more predictably it will be 5 weeks absence for a symptomatic player.

an asymptomatic player who tests positive will be out a minimum of 2 weeks. Then IF they test clear for two weeks they can return. But that 2 week clock only starts ticking once they no longer test positive. So best case scenario for an asymptomatic player is still longer than 2 weeks. 

It’s a mess. I don’t know how the NFL pulls this off without a stoppage. It’ll be interesting to see if any players sit out the season. We’re already seeing comments to that effect in MLB & the NBA. 

 

[Deamon]

one consideration here is the stress this puts on the players.

Even in the best case scenario where a player pops positive & the team has to go massive continuous testing, while the team is isolated, that’s gonna take a mental toll on players. 

heck, many Americans couldn’t go a month without a haircut or dinner at Applebee’s. We’re talking about invasive testing (my niece is a caregiver and has had 2 tests in 2 months - said it suuuuucks. Like the swab shoved up your nose into your brain kinda feeling) happening daily, living in a bubble, with constant risk of exposure on their minds.

as with any population, some will be ok with this. Some won’t. If extreme measures are taken, I’d expect some players to say “F it - I’ll sit out a year”. 

As I’ve said before, 2 weeks is a dramatic underestimate. 

someone previously claimed an “average of 2 weeks”. That was, is, and will continue to be a false statement. 

A symptomatic case of COVID19 commonly lasts for 3 weeks. That’s the average time of symptoms to recovery.

then it’s 2 weeks of testing clear before ending quarantine.

so more predictably it will be 5 weeks absence for a symptomatic player.

an asymptomatic player who tests positive will be out a minimum of 2 weeks. Then IF they test clear for two weeks they can return. But that 2 week clock only starts ticking once they no longer test positive. So best case scenario for an asymptomatic player is still longer than 2 weeks. 

It’s a mess. I don’t know how the NFL pulls this off without a stoppage. It’ll be interesting to see if any players sit out the season. We’re already seeing comments to that effect in MLB & the NBA. 

2 weeks is not a dramatic underestimate.  Symptoms can last even just a few days in mild cases, and average a few weeks.  Given the Athlete's typical health, immune system, and access to the top medical care (yes of course there are some exceptions), it should be on the lower end of that.  They also suggest not returning to work for 2 weeks after symptoms end TO BE SAFE (as they can't keep retesting people over and over).  NFL players coming off of a covid diagnosis will probably be tested DAILY.  If a player tests positive, I'd expect him to miss 2 weeks, maybe 3.  Definitely not 5.

 

[Mingooch]

Cant say about the NFL, but as a first responder, they want us out a minimum of 2 weeks and we have to be completely symptom free for 72 hours minimum before we can go back to work

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Cant say about the NFL, but as a first responder, they want us out a minimum of 2 weeks and we have to be completely symptom free for 72 hours minimum before we can go back to work

Man, my hat goes off to you. This is a hell of a time to be in that line of work. Nothing but respect for the risk you put yourself in every day.

my ex GF is on a bus daily. She went to school & became a coroner for a while, but she missed the action so went back to being a paramedic last year. Now she has more action than she ever dreamed of having.

be safe out there. 

 

[Mingooch]

Thank you, 

 

[Deamon]

Cant say about the NFL, but as a first responder, they want us out a minimum of 2 weeks and we have to be completely symptom free for 72 hours minimum before we can go back to work

Yep, Im sure it will be similar for the NFL.  Out 2 weeks and 72 hours symptom free with daily tests.  Should mean these players are missing 2-3 games if they are infected mid season.

 

[CalBear]

Well for someone who just blasted me for making assumptions, you then go on to make a bunch of your own that are false.

"Some number would die" I believe is completely false.  Based on the numbers, ZERO of 1500 infected healthy people in their 20's would die.  Even if they DIDN'T have the top health care available in the country (which they do), you're looking at about 1 in 500 000.  Even if you make the extremely unlikely assumption that NFL players on average have the same health and pre existing conditions as the average person in America, AND have no better health care, it's a mortality rate of 1 in 3000 dying from it who are infected in this age group.  It would be an absolute miracle (for lack of a better word) if 1 in those 1500 NFL players infected died from it... to say "maybe 1, maybe 5, maybe 10" is ludicrous.  Suggesting maybe up to 100 would have life long strokes/lung damage and even more having month long recoveries too... this is extreme exaggeration which you could technically "defend" with the easy way out "we just don't know" blanket claim.  It's far far more likely (yes based on facts and numbers) that 0 players would die than 1. 

"1 in 500,000" is a completely made-up number. 

In New York City, 1 in 500 people has already died of COVID. And we know that that's an undercount.

There was a study published just this week that almost 50% of COVD-related stroke victims are under 50. (By the way: People don't get strokes because they caught a bad cold.)

And there's almost no science yet on the long-term effects, because it's so new, but it's clear that a lot of survivors are going to have very long-term health impacts.

It's a serious, serious thing. Anyone who tells you differently is selling you something.

 

[Deamon]

"1 in 500,000" is a completely made-up number. 

In New York City, 1 in 500 people has already died of COVID. And we know that that's an undercount.

There was a study published just this week that almost 50% of COVD-related stroke victims are under 50. (By the way: People don't get strokes because they caught a bad cold.)

And there's almost no science yet on the long-term effects, because it's so new, but it's clear that a lot of survivors are going to have very long-term health impacts.

It's a serious, serious thing. Anyone who tells you differently is selling you something.

It's not made up.  The chance of death if you are between 20-29 is 0.03% of people known to be infected with Covid.

- This doesn't even take into account the fact that the vast majority who are infected with Covid, never even get tested so that number is much lower.
- This doesn't even take into account the fact that the vast majority of these 0.03% deaths are from people with other pre-existing conditions, making NFL player risk much lower.
- This doesn't even take into account the fact that NFL players have access to the best doctors and medicine in the country, making NFL player risk much lower.

I've not once said this isn't a serious, serious thing.  I believe it is very very serious.  But the actual serious health effects/death of a healthy 20 year old NFL player is as close to 0 as it comes.

 

[I-ROK]

"1 in 500,000" is a completely made-up number. 

In New York City, 1 in 500 people has already died of COVID. And we know that that's an undercount.

There was a study published just this week that almost 50% of COVD-related stroke victims are under 50. (By the way: People don't get strokes because they caught a bad cold.)

And there's almost no science yet on the long-term effects, because it's so new, but it's clear that a lot of survivors are going to have very long-term health impacts.

It's a serious, serious thing. Anyone who tells you differently is selling you something.

Did that study look at NFL football players? 

 

[I-ROK]

Let’s try to stay focused on football. Studies that look at 50 year old Chinese women, or New Yorkers who aren’t elite athletes don’t really apply to this discussion because most NFL athletes are in their 20s and, well, are NFL players. The only studies worth talking about are studies on at least that age group, but ideally done on NFL athletes. The young population is very minimally impacted. Some coaches may be at risk, sure, but the team can play without its coach. How your buddy in his late 30s handled the disease doesn’t matter because his job isn’t to work out every single day. I imagine being in elite shape will lead to an easier time with this disease more often than not. 

Go to the other forum if you want to debate the disease. Let’s keep it to football. And even to the title of this thread. The fact that these players tested positive is a great thing for their fantasy outlook because, assuming antibodies will stay long term, they won’t get it during the season. If we can assume they’ll all be taking breaks eating lunch and call that a fair argument, I think we can consider a more likely assumption that the antibodies will stick around long term. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Did that study look at NFL football players? 

Are football players a different species? 

 

[I-ROK]

Are football players a different species? 

You clearly don’t understand the scientific mode 

 

[I-ROK]

I’ll help you out, although I’ll say I may be a little rusty since it was 20 years ago that I was getting my Masters, but you can’t take a study on one group of people and apply it to a completely different group of people. Not even a study on 20 year old men and apply it to 20 year old women.
 

The only study that can make definitive statements on how current NFL athletes handle this virus is a study done on current NFL athletes. Anyone saying otherwise is just trying to sell you something 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Plenty of NFL players over age 29.  That's not accounting for what happens if someone like Belichick, Carroll, or Reid catches it.

 

[CalBear]

I’ll help you out, although I’ll say I may be a little rusty since it was 20 years ago that I was getting my Masters, but you can’t take a study on one group of people and apply it to a completely different group of people. Not even a study on 20 year old men and apply it to 20 year old women.
 

The only study that can make definitive statements on how current NFL athletes handle this virus is a study done on current NFL athletes. Anyone saying otherwise is just trying to sell you something 

I'm not talking about a study. I'm talking about the actual population of the actual New York City, where one in 500 people has died of COVID. Reported deaths divided by population.

If that doesn't scare you, you're not paying attention.

And there is a sizable number of deaths which have been attributed to causes other than COVID, or which occurred outside of hospital settings and thus are not included in the fatality totals.

Connecting back to the NFL: Let's imagine a scenario where things start up, infections start to happen, and one player with name recognition winds up in the hospital on a ventilator. What kind of effect do you think that will have on the rest of the players, the player's union, the morale of the league?

The NFL has a long track record of not caring about the health of its players. It will try to open back up. But the PR is going to be very bad when something bad happens, and it will.

 

[I-ROK]

I'm not talking about a study. I'm talking about the actual population of the actual New York City, where one in 500 people has died of COVID. Reported deaths divided by population.

If that doesn't scare you, you're not paying attention.

Well sure the exceptions to the norm are scary. I thought this was a football forum, and a football topic. Bringing up how grandma handled a disease doesn’t add anything to the conversation about 20 year olds in their prime

 

[I-ROK]

What if there are a lot of players like EZE who are asymptomatic? 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’ll help you out, although I’ll say I may be a little rusty since it was 20 years ago that I was getting my Masters, but you can’t take a study on one group of people and apply it to a completely different group of people. Not even a study on 20 year old men and apply it to 20 year old women.
 

The only study that can make definitive statements on how current NFL athletes handle this virus is a study done on current NFL athletes. Anyone saying otherwise is just trying to sell you something . 
 

this is all kinds of wrong. It’s not a study, it’s a pandemic. 

theres a mountain of evidence that we can use for 1:1 comparisons across the spectrum of NFL Players and personnel, which spans a wideR swath of the populace than you’re asserting.

thanks for the help. You must be “rusty”.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well sure the exceptions to the norm are scary. I thought this was a football forum, and a football topic. Bringing up how grandma handled a disease doesn’t add anything to the conversation about 20 year olds in their prime

The NFL has a broad enough range of ages and preexisting health conditions between players and coaches that they shouldn’t be any different from other populations. 

Player age ranges from 22-44

Coaching staffs often have anywhere from 30-75 year olds. 

we can even determine racial makeup of the player population.

and the population is large enough as to compare well to @CalBear’s example above. 

Age was considered a major factor of COVID18 early on, with some suggesting it only effected the elderly & that children weren’t at risk. 
 

however, as more has been learned about this disease over time we know that children can be asymptomatic carriers, and also that children have succumbed to the disease.

And if you insist on focusing on age, there are 20 year-olds dying of COVID, as well as 30 year-olds and 40 year-olds. As such we can make an apples to apples comparison of the % of those populations who are likely to develop what symptoms based on millions worldwide who have contracted the disease.

As humans, NFL players also have the same co-morbidities as other humans. OL frequently weigh in at 300+ lbs. there are cancer survivors, sickle cell trait, diabetes, etc. 

So pardon my skepticism, but I find your methodology a bit off. 

 

[Cobbler1]

The NFL has a broad enough range of ages and preexisting health conditions between players and coaches that they shouldn’t be any different from other populations. 

Player age ranges from 22-44

Coaching staffs often have anywhere from 30-75 year olds. 

we can even determine racial makeup of the player population.

and the population is large enough as to compare well to @CalBear’s example above. 

Age was considered a major factor of COVID18 early on, with some suggesting it only effected the elderly & that children weren’t at risk. 
 

however, as more has been learned about this disease over time we know that children can be asymptomatic carriers, and also that children have succumbed to the disease.

And if you insist on focusing on age, there are 20 year-olds dying of COVID, as well as 30 year-olds and 40 year-olds. As such we can make an apples to apples comparison of the % of those populations who are likely to develop what symptoms based on millions worldwide who have contracted the disease.

As humans, NFL players also have the same co-morbidities as other humans. OL frequently weigh in at 300+ lbs. there are cancer survivors, sickle cell trait, diabetes, etc. 

So pardon my skepticism, but I find your methodology a bit off. 

This is just so wrong. You really don’t see a difference between Ronnie Stanley weighing 300+ because he needs to have the strength to lift a small car, exercising likely daily and JimBob from Alabama weighing 300+ because he eats McDonald’s and fried chicken every day and has no idea how to turn on a treadmill? Thinking the US population is representative of the NFL population is just mind numbing to me. Sure some NFL players have co-morbidities but it’s fairly obvious this is a select population, different from the general population. 
 

Speaking of populations, the CDC numbers from 6/10 list 756 deaths for the age groups 15-34. That’s out of over 96,000 deaths they had official documentation for. There are 2.21 million cases today. That’s 3 deaths per 10,000 cases. I understand there’s noise in this data. The CDC death count lags the deaths and the deaths lag the cases. You could probably add a good 15-30% more deaths in that age range to account for that. But you could also multiply the official documented cases by 5-10x since we know a large portion of cases aren’t being captured. Combining these corrections brings that death rate for 15-34 significantly lower than the already low 3 in 10,000. And again that’s if you pretend NFL players are as at risk as other 15-34 year olds...which they’re not.

*NONE OF THIS MEANS COVID ISN’T A BIG DEAL. I’m working from home, I mask in public, I’m distancing. As a healthy 34 year old I understand it poses little risk to myself but I don’t want to be the guy who kills someone’s grandma or asthmatic friend and I hope that enough people think like that so my own grandmother isn’t put at more risk by selfish pricks who want to bar hop. I’ve spent a ton of time trying to get dummies to see the logic in wearing a mask and why this is different from the flu. But as far as risk to a NFL player? It’s really not. Doesn’t mean there won’t and shouldn’t be a large impact on the season though. Stopping/slowing the spread of the disease saves lives and the NFL is a part of that.*

 

[CalBear]

This is just so wrong. You really don’t see a difference between Ronnie Stanley weighing 300+ because he needs to have the strength to lift a small car, exercising likely daily and JimBob from Alabama weighing 300+ because he eats McDonald’s and fried chicken every day and has no idea how to turn on a treadmill? Thinking the US population is representative of the NFL population is just mind numbing to me. Sure some NFL players have co-morbidities but it’s fairly obvious this is a select population, different from the general population. 
 

Speaking of populations, the CDC numbers from 6/10 list 756 deaths for the age groups 15-34. That’s out of over 96,000 deaths they had official documentation for. There are 2.21 million cases today. That’s 3 deaths per 10,000 cases. I understand there’s noise in this data. The CDC death count lags the deaths and the deaths lag the cases. You could probably add a good 15-30% more deaths in that age range to account for that. But you could also multiply the official documented cases by 5-10x since we know a large portion of cases aren’t being captured. Combining these corrections brings that death rate for 15-34 significantly lower than the already low 3 in 10,000. And again that’s if you pretend NFL players are as at risk as other 15-34 year olds...which they’re not.

*NONE OF THIS MEANS COVID ISN’T A BIG DEAL. I’m working from home, I mask in public, I’m distancing. As a healthy 34 year old I understand it poses little risk to myself but I don’t want to be the guy who kills someone’s grandma or asthmatic friend and I hope that enough people think like that so my own grandmother isn’t put at more risk by selfish pricks who want to bar hop. I’ve spent a ton of time trying to get dummies to see the logic in wearing a mask and why this is different from the flu. But as far as risk to a NFL player? It’s really not. Doesn’t mean there won’t and shouldn’t be a large impact on the season though. Stopping/slowing the spread of the disease saves lives and the NFL is a part of that.*

On the other side, Males are more likely to be hospitalized than females, and Black people significantly more likely to be hospitalized than other races and ethnicities. And we don't really know if intense physical activity in the presence of virus particles increases your likelihood of conducting the disease, but it sure seems likely.

3 in 10,000 should be a scary number. NFL teams employ over 3,000 people each. Some of those won't be needed because the stadiums will be empty, but even if each team employs 500 game-day people, that means you might expect one death per six teams. 

And you don't need people to die for the season to be seriously in jeopardy. A high-profile person hospitalized and intubated would really make it hard to continue. Baseball is already seeing this; the players really are pushing back on being exposed to risk at reduced compensation. (With good reason.)

 

[Cobbler1]

On the other side, Males are more likely to be hospitalized than females, and Black people significantly more likely to be hospitalized than other races and ethnicities. And we don't really know if intense physical activity in the presence of virus particles increases your likelihood of conducting the disease, but it sure seems likely.

3 in 10,000 should be a scary number. NFL teams employ over 3,000 people each. Some of those won't be needed because the stadiums will be empty, but even if each team employs 500 game-day people, that means you might expect one death per six teams. 

And you don't need people to die for the season to be seriously in jeopardy. A high-profile person hospitalized and intubated would really make it hard to continue. Baseball is already seeing this; the players really are pushing back on being exposed to risk at reduced compensation. (With good reason.)

I’m commenting purely on the ridiculousness of comparing the NFL players to the general population. It doesn’t seem like you disagree with that. 

 

[huthut]

This is just so wrong. You really don’t see a difference between Ronnie Stanley weighing 300+ because he needs to have the strength to lift a small car, exercising likely daily and JimBob from Alabama weighing 300+ because he eats McDonald’s and fried chicken every day and has no idea how to turn on a treadmill? Thinking the US population is representative of the NFL population is just mind numbing to me. Sure some NFL players have co-morbidities but it’s fairly obvious this is a select population, different from the general population. 

Not to put words in @Hot Sauce Guy 's mouth, but I think the point is that it is wide spread enough that you could find an enough people for any demographic data set. You don't need to compare specifically to NFL players which is obviously a small sample size, you could use other athletes or gym rats who are more athletic/muscular than the population at large and see if it confers any benefit. Death is the only stat that is really being tracked outside of infections, but there are healthy young people that get major issues like the guy who had a leg amputated or the 20 something year old woman who needed a double lung transplant. Or there are stories about how people got it 3 months ago and still get winded walking to the bathroom. They did not die, but it still would not be ideal for an NFL player or anyone really. Is it likely that a ton of NFL players would die? Probably not, but it is possible some might. Would heavier linemen or older coaches be at increased risk? Possibly? I dunno. If you add the risk of death + any sort of long term physical issue it seems likely that some NFL player might have an early retirement. I guess how much people care depends on if it is a 3rd string safety or Mahomes. 

 

[CalBear]

I’m commenting purely on the ridiculousness of comparing the NFL players to the general population. It doesn’t seem like you disagree with that. 

Correct. But they're different in many ways, some of which probably put them at less risk and some of which probably put them at greater risk. We really don't know very well what the risks would be. But I think it's clear that it'd be closer to 1 in 500 serious cases than it is to 1 in 500,000. The idea that the risk is low is based on fantasy.

 

[Cobbler1]

Not to put words in @Hot Sauce Guy 's mouth, but I think the point is that it is wide spread enough that you could find an enough people for any demographic data set. You don't need to compare specifically to NFL players which is obviously a small sample size, you could use other athletes or gym rats who are more athletic/muscular than the population at large and see if it confers any benefit. Death is the only stat that is really being tracked outside of infections, but there are healthy young people that get major issues like the guy who had a leg amputated or the 20 something year old woman who needed a double lung transplant. Or there are stories about how people got it 3 months ago and still get winded walking to the bathroom. They did not die, but it still would not be ideal for an NFL player or anyone really. Is it likely that a ton of NFL players would die? Probably not, but it is possible. Would heavier linemen or coaches be at increased risk? Possibly? I dunno. If you add the risk of death + any sort of long term physical issue it seems likely that some NFL player might have an early retirement. I guess how much people care depends on if it is a 3rd string safety or Mahomes. 

If there are stats available for high level athletes, link them! I took issue with him assuming the NFL athletes are captured in the data of the general US population or the population of NYC. Which they obviously are not.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is just so wrong. You really don’t see a difference between Ronnie Stanley weighing 300+ because he needs to have the strength to lift a small car, exercising likely daily and JimBob from Alabama weighing 300+ because he eats McDonald’s and fried chicken every day and has no idea how to turn on a treadmill? Thinking the US population is representative of the NFL population is just mind numbing to me. Sure some NFL players have co-morbidities but it’s fairly obvious this is a select population, different from the general population. 

This is a disease that attacks the blood vessels. We know this now. It causes strokes and embolisms, and attacks healthy lung tissue, and even the brain. 

weight is 1 factor, but not the only factor.
 

Here’s a marathon runner who succumbed to COVID19. He was 51, and “the picture of health”.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/maryanngeorgantopoulos/coronavirus-victim-anick-jesdanun-ap-marathons
 

Per WaPo, 

“Young people are developing Covid-19 at significant rates—and hundreds have died

According to an analysis of state data by the Washington Post, at least 759 people under the age of 50 in the United States had died from Covid-19 as of Wednesday. The Post identified at least 45 deaths among patients in their 20s, at least 190 deaths among patients in their 30s, and at least 413 deaths among patients in their 40s. The Post noted that the actual number of Covid-19 deaths among people younger than 50 is likely higher, as not all states report Covid-19 deaths by age.”

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/04/13/covid-young-people

From this same article,

“Why are some healthy, young people dying of Covid-19?

Health experts aren't sure why some otherwise healthy, young people are suddenly dying of Covid-19, but they do have some theories.

One theory is that some people are genetically predisposed to developing more severe cases of Covid-19 than others. For example, Philip Murphy, a biomedical researcher at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told ScienceMagazine's Jocelyn Kaiser that variations in a person's ACE2 gene receptor potentially "could make it easier or harder for the virus to get into lung cells."

So tell me - what % of the population of the NFL has the genetic makeup to cause them to be more or less susceptible, and what does that possibly have to do with them being able to lift weight or their diet? 

that was rhetorical - it has nothing to do with it. Some will be genetically predisposed & some will not. Just like the rest of the population of the United States or the world.

Speaking of populations, the CDC numbers from 6/10 list 756 deaths for the age groups 15-34. That’s out of over 96,000 deaths they had official documentation for. There are 2.21 million cases today. That’s 3 deaths per 10,000 cases. I understand there’s noise in this data. The CDC death count lags the deaths and the deaths lag the cases. You could probably add a good 15-30% more deaths in that age range to account for that. But you could also multiply the official documented cases by 5-10x since we know a large portion of cases aren’t being captured. Combining these corrections brings that death rate for 15-34 significantly lower than the already low 3 in 10,000. And again that’s if you pretend NFL players are as at risk as other 15-34 year olds...which they’re not.

except they are. See above. 

*NONE OF THIS MEANS COVID ISN’T A BIG DEAL. I’m working from home, I mask in public, I’m distancing. As a healthy 34 year old I understand it poses little risk to myself but I don’t want to be the guy who kills someone’s grandma or asthmatic friend and I hope that enough people think like that so my own grandmother isn’t put at more risk by selfish pricks who want to bar hop. I’ve spent a ton of time trying to get dummies to see the logic in wearing a mask and why this is different from the flu. But as far as risk to a NFL player? It’s really not. Doesn’t mean there won’t and shouldn’t be a large impact on the season though. Stopping/slowing the spread of the disease saves lives and the NFL is a part of that.*

The first part is spot on. Thanks for doing your part to prevent the spread.

your statements about NFL players being at less risk are simply not true. 

there’s a lot of research now. It’s important to understand who this disease effects (everyone) and who is at risk (everyone). Unfortunately we know more because more and more people are dying, and we know now that young people with no preexisting conditions / co-morbidities are also dying in higher numbers than expected.

and that’s all based only on reporting, which some states are not doing accurately for reasons that belong in the politics forum.  

 

[Cobbler1]

Correct. But they're different in many ways, some of which probably put them at less risk and some of which probably put them at greater risk. We really don't know very well what the risks would be. But I think it's clear that it'd be closer to 1 in 500 serious cases than it is to 1 in 500,000. The idea that the risk is low is based on fantasy.

I don’t think so man. I’d start at 3/10,000 as the baseline. Multiply it to 3/100000 or 3/50,000 pretty quickly to attempt to account for the actual number of cases. Then you can adjust for race/gender on one end and health care access/reduced co-morbidities/frequent testing etc on the other end and I’d guess you end up reducing the risk even further. It’s a lot of educated guesses. What’s clear and my initial point is that the NFL population doesn’t mimic the general US population.

 

[huthut]

If there are stats available for high level athletes, link them! I took issue with him assuming the NFL athletes are captured in the data of the general US population or the population of NYC. Which they obviously are not.

I don't have the data, but the sample size is large enough for someone to collect/analyze whatever is there. It is definitely possible being an athlete means you will get less severe issues, but we don't know if that is true, and then if it is what level of benefit you get. Maybe it means you are 1% less likely to have severe symptoms/issues, or maybe it is 80% less likely. I just don't think it is safe to say that since they are athletes, they will be ok. We do not know that. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m commenting purely on the ridiculousness of comparing the NFL players to the general population. It doesn’t seem like you disagree with that. 

Because NFL players are part of the general population.

your assertion above makes it sound like there’s two groups:  “NFL players” and “fat slobs sitting in their couch gettin their Big Mac on”, when in fact the general population is a wide array of humans in various age groups and health status. 

and while true that Americans are On average more obese/unhealthy than other countries, the fitness trend is higher now than it’s ever been. There are a lot of very fit humans in the general population as well, and some of them have becomes sick and died from COVID, or just become sick. 

i mentioned dude in my FBB league. When we drafted in April he had a 99 fever, popped positive & was in quarantine. He was symptomatic for ~4 weeks. It’s been 2.5 months and he still gets exhausted easily, sleeps like ####, hasn't fully recovered taste or smell. He’s 38, and a runner. Zero preexisting conditions/co-morbidities.

the population is the population. We now know that COVID is in part a blood disease. When it comes to other blood diseases like say, leukemia, we don’t say, “well, those guys are football players! No way could they get leukemia!” because leukemia doesn’t care how big strong or fit you are. 

and we are learning that oftentimes COVID doesn’t wither. 

So back to the NFL, the risks are the risks. Players will have to assume that there is a spectrum of risk: that they could get sick & miss time. That they could have their career jeopardized. Or that they could die. Or, as in ~80% of cases, they feel no or mild symptoms and recover in a couple weeks with no lasting effect.

but that spectrum is roughly the same for Patrick Mahomes as it is for the fat slob dripping special sauce down his wife-beater. Maybe the football player (or healthier citizen) improves their chances of prognosis by a %, but that isn’t the same as eliminating the risk.

that will impact whether we have a season. Numbers of players & personnel falling ill, or numbers of players & personnel deciding it’s not worth the risk. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don’t think so man. I’d start at 3/10,000 as the baseline. Multiply it to 3/100000 or 3/50,000 pretty quickly to attempt to account for the actual number of cases. Then you can adjust for race/gender on one end and health care access/reduced co-morbidities/frequent testing etc on the other end and I’d guess you end up reducing the risk even further. It’s a lot of educated guesses. What’s clear and my initial point is that the NFL population doesn’t mimic the general US population.

Correct - the NFL likely has a higher risk, as there are a higher % of African Americans in the NFL than in the general population. That population, as @CalBearsuggested above, had a greater predisposition genetically to the co-morbidities that contribute to severity of COVID infection, such as diabetes or sickle cell trait.   

Genetics don’t care what sport someone plays. 

 

[Cobbler1]

This is a disease that attacks the blood vessels. We know this now. It causes strokes and embolisms, and attacks healthy lung tissue, and even the brain. 

weight is 1 factor, but not the only factor.
 

Here’s a marathon runner who succumbed to COVID19. He was 51, and “the picture of health”.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/maryanngeorgantopoulos/coronavirus-victim-anick-jesdanun-ap-marathons
 

Per WaPo, 

“Young people are developing Covid-19 at significant rates—and hundreds have died

According to an analysis of state data by the Washington Post, at least 759 people under the age of 50 in the United States had died from Covid-19 as of Wednesday. The Post identified at least 45 deaths among patients in their 20s, at least 190 deaths among patients in their 30s, and at least 413 deaths among patients in their 40s. The Post noted that the actual number of Covid-19 deaths among people younger than 50 is likely higher, as not all states report Covid-19 deaths by age.”

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/04/13/covid-young-people

From this same article, “

Why are some healthy, young people dying of Covid-19?

Health experts aren't sure why some otherwise healthy, young people are suddenly dying of Covid-19, but they do have some theories.

One theory is that some people are genetically predisposed to developing more severe cases of Covid-19 than others. For example, Philip Murphy, a biomedical researcher at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told ScienceMagazine's Jocelyn Kaiser that variations in a person's ACE2 gene receptor potentially "could make it easier or harder for the virus to get into lung cells."

So tell me - what % of the population of the NFL has the genetic makeup to cause them to be more or less susceptible, and what does that possibly have to do with them being able to lift weight or their diet? 

that was hypothetical - it has nothing to do with it. Some will be genetically predisposed & some will not. Just like the rest of the population of the United States or the world.

except they are. See above. 

The first part is spot on. Thanks for doing your part to prevent the spread.

your statements about NFL players being at less risk are simply not true. 

there’s a lot of research now. It’s important to understand who this disease effects (everyone) and who is at risk (everyone). Unfortunately we know more because more and more people are dying, and we know now that young people with no preexisting conditions / co-morbidities are also dying in higher numbers than expected.

and that’s all based only on reporting, which some states are not doing accurately for reasons that belong in the politics forum.  

None of this proved anything. 759 people died under the age of 50? I quoted 756 ages 15-34. That’s bigger than your number! And really really really small compared to the total number of deaths, total number of confirmed cases, and speculated number of actual cases. A story about a singular marathon runner? Show me 5% of marathon runners infected are dying and this would be a much bigger deal to marathon runners. In a discussion about millions it means nothing. Unless you think I’ve been saying that literally no healthy people are dying, which I’m obviously not saying.

So there’s a theory about a genetic component being a factor? Makes total sense I’m sure that’s a part of it. Expect the general population will likely have the same genetic risk factors while also dealing with other factors like age most importantly and all the other co-morbidities that would be greatly reduced amongst an elite young athletic population.

Was your singular point that there could be a genetic factor amongst players that make them just as likely as dying as other humans in that regard? I wouldn’t disagree with that. But I’d say that’s just one of several factors and a whole bunch of factors are either proven to be in favor of young elite athletes or are highly likely to be in their favor.

 

[Cobbler1]

Correct - the NFL likely has a higher risk, as there are a higher % of African Americans in the NFL than in the general population. That population, as @CalBearsuggested above, had a greater predisposition genetically to the co-morbidities that contribute to severity of COVID infection, such as diabetes or sickle cell trait.   

Genetics don’t care what sport someone plays. 

Jesus man. So they’re higher risk because they’re black but you won’t admit lower risk because they’re younger?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

None of this proved anything.

didn’t say it proved anything. But it is evidence that “NFL player” vs “Not NFL player” is not a scientific approach to determining who’s susceptible to COVID, which was the theory you asserted. 

Was your singular point that there could be a genetic factor amongst players that make them just as likely as dying as other humans in that regard? I wouldn’t disagree with that. But I’d say that’s just one of several factors and a whole bunch of factors are either proven to be in favor of young elite athletes or are highly likely to be in their favor.

I suggested many factors, but that was a singular trait shared by the entire population, including NFL players, yes.  And it’s accurate.

if, as suspected, there are genetic markers for COVID, then what someone does as a profession is largely irrelevant in predicting their outcome.’

 

[Cobbler1]

Because NFL players are part of the general population.

your assertion above makes it sound like there’s two groups:  “NFL players” and “fat slobs sitting in their couch gettin their Big Mac on”, when in fact the general population is a wide array of humans in various age groups and health status. 

and while true that Americans are On average more obese/unhealthy than other countries, the fitness trend is higher now than it’s ever been. There are a lot of very fit humans in the general population as well, and some of them have becomes sick and died from COVID, or just become sick. 

i mentioned dude in my FBB league. When we drafted in April he had a 99 fever, popped positive & was in quarantine. He was symptomatic for ~4 weeks. It’s been 2.5 months and he still gets exhausted easily, sleeps like ####, hasn't fully recovered taste or smell. He’s 38, and a runner. Zero preexisting conditions/co-morbidities.

the population is the population. We now know that COVID is in part a blood disease. When it comes to other blood diseases like say, leukemia, we don’t say, “well, those guys are football players! No way could they get leukemia!” because leukemia doesn’t care how big strong or fit you are. 

and we are learning that oftentimes COVID doesn’t wither. 

So back to the NFL, the risks are the risks. Players will have to assume that there is a spectrum of risk: that they could get sick & miss time. That they could have their career jeopardized. Or that they could die. Or, as in ~80% of cases, they feel no or mild symptoms and recover in a couple weeks with no lasting effect.

but that spectrum is roughly the same for Patrick Mahomes as it is for the fat slob dripping special sauce down his wife-beater. Maybe the football player (or healthier citizen) improves their chances of prognosis by a %, but that isn’t the same as eliminating the risk.

that will impact whether we have a season. Numbers of players & personnel falling ill, or numbers of players & personnel deciding it’s not worth the risk. 

EXACTLY. The general population is a wide array of different populations with different ages and health statuses. NFL football players are not.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jesus man. So they’re higher risk because they’re black but you won’t admit lower risk because they’re younger?

Correct. 

Because people can be any age and carry the same genetic risk, but black people also do have a greater predisposition to certain diseases that put them at even greater risk. 

that seems pretty straightforward. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

EXACTLY. The general population is a wide array of different populations with different ages and health statuses. NFL football players are not.

Of course. But they do share traits with the greater population, right?

there are young people getting sick and/or dying with no preexisting conditions. 

there are people who are incredibly fit getting sick/dying of COVID as well.

yes, it is at a smaller rate than a sample of 350 lb bubbas binging on Taco Bell at 03:00 AM, but it’s not 0. 

so with the data sets we have we can make a direct comparison in age, ethnicity and health to determine that yes, NFL players are at risk. 

Just like there’s young healthy dentists and nurses and auto mechanics falling ill with COVID, there are also young healthy NFL players who are at the same risk. 

It’s certainly not “no risk”, which was your assertion. 

 

[Cobbler1]

Correct. 

Because people can be any age and carry the same genetic risk, but black people also do have a greater predisposition to certain diseases that put them at even greater risk. 

that seems pretty straightforward. 

But age is a proven HUGE RISK. Bigger than potential genetic makeup or race by many many magnitudes. I think that I better understand what you’re saying- there could be specific genetic factors at play that make football players no better off than any person. Sure I agree. But there’s soooo many other things (namely age) that makes them less susceptible.

 

[Cobbler1]

Of course. But they do share traits with the greater population, right?

there are young people getting sick and/or dying with no preexisting conditions. 

there are people who are incredibly fit getting sick/dying of COVID as well.

yes, it is at a smaller rate than a sample of 350 lb bubbas binging on Taco Bell at 03:00 AM, but it’s not 0. 

so with the data sets we have we can make a direct comparison in age, ethnicity and health to determine that yes, NFL players are at risk. 

Just like there’s young healthy dentists and nurses and auto mechanics falling ill with COVID, there are also young healthy NFL players who are at the same risk. 

It’s certainly not “no risk”, which was your assertion. 

Nope never my assertion. Don’t put “no risk” in quotes and attribute it to me. My assertion is that you can’t extrapolate all the risk the general population faces to NFL players because they are not the same makeup as the general population. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But age is a proven HUGE RISK. Bigger than potential genetic makeup or race by many many magnitudes. I think that I better understand what you’re saying- there could be specific genetic factors at play that make football players no better off than any person. Sure I agree. But there’s soooo many other things (namely age) that makes them less susceptible.

Of course. I am not arguing agains this at all.

an outbreak in an elderly care facility is likely to be significantly worse than an outbreak in an NFL locker room. i don’t think anyone is arguing differently. 

so for each group being evaluated, you have to look at all of the factors. Age is just 1 factor.

• underlying health

• genetic predisposition 

• preexisting conditions

• lifestyle - drugs & alcohol, unprotected sex (STDs, HPV, etc) 

• Ethnic markers

etc.

so even within a population of NFL players, you’re going to see a wide array of sub-groups who may have some, none, or all of the risk factors. 

And while relatively young age & good health put them at significantly less risk than the elderly care facility, there will still be a % of players who

• contract the virus

• are symptomatic

• are asymptomatic

• are effected adversely

• succumb to the illness. 

We have no immunity to this virus COVID19.  And we don’t know what we don’t know. We keep clinging to narratives that prove to be false because they get reported out and we desperately want to believe them, but the reality is this is a deadly virus with no cure and we have no immunities.

we don’t even yet know if there are mutations or whether we will have immunity after contracting it.  It’s theorized & speculated on,, but we lack the evidence. 

i have my doubts that we will have an NFL season without extreme measures. 

what a time to be alive.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Nope never my assertion. Don’t put “no risk” in quotes and attribute it to me. My assertion is that you can’t extrapolate all the risk the general population faces to NFL players because they are not the same makeup as the general population. 

That’s fair. My apologies - I didn’t mean to misquote you.

I disagree with your assertion because some factors can’t be measured as easily as simply age or profession, nor can the risks be dismissed simply because someone is healthy or young. 

 

[Cobbler1]

The NFL has a broad enough range of ages and preexisting health conditions between players and coaches that they shouldn’t be any different from other populations. 

This is where I jumped in because while having some things in common they are a very select population not represented by the general population. The ratios within their population will be starkly different at some key measures than the US population.

That’s fair. My apologies - I didn’t mean to misquote you.

I disagree with your assertion because some factors can’t be measured as easily as simply age or profession, nor can the risks be dismissed simply because someone is healthy or young. 

I think you’re actually agreeing with me. I said you can’t extrapolate all the risk across the nfl population and you are saying some (as in not all) factors can’t be easily measured. I’m assuming this means the other factors can be measured easily and they differentiate the NFL population tremendously.

 

[menobrown]

Not sure if anyone read the details of the NBA's plan to reopen, I read it on The Athletic and since it's behind a paywall won't link it, but it's pretty comprehensive and done in ways the NFL can't possibly match. Some have said NBA would be a litmus test of sorts for the NFL but to me only in so much if it fails the NFL season is going to look doomed because  the level of  safeguards they are planning on taking the NFL can't match.

 

[Deamon]

Plenty of NFL players over age 29.  That's not accounting for what happens if someone like Belichick, Carroll, or Reid catches it.

The percentages from age 30-40 aren't much higher.  And healthy people in their 50's and 60's with the best health care out there, also are very very low risk.

 

[Cobbler1]

Not sure if anyone read the details of the NBA's plan to reopen, I read it on The Athletic and since it's behind a paywall won't link it, but it's pretty comprehensive and done in ways the NFL can't possibly match. Some have said NBA would be a litmus test of sorts for the NFL but to me only in so much if it fails the NFL season is going to look doomed because  the level of  safeguards they are planning on taking the NFL can't match.

This will be interesting to follow for sure and yeah I agree that if it fails it’s more of a baaaaad sign than succeeding would be of a good sign. 

 

[Deamon]

Connecting back to the NFL: Let's imagine a scenario where things start up, infections start to happen, and one player with name recognition winds up in the hospital on a ventilator.

 But the PR is going to be very bad when something bad happens, and it will.

Care to make a wager on if any NFL players end up in this situation?  No players are going to be in life threatening state this year from covid.

3 in 10,000 should be a scary number. NFL teams employ over 3,000 people each.

A high-profile person hospitalized and intubated would really make it hard to continue.

3 in 10 000 is ALL cases.  You're completely ignoring the other factors on purpose to fit your side.  If you add in that only 1 in 5-10 who have it are even tested, you're looking at 3 in 100 000.  In which case 90% have pre existing conditions.  So 3 in every 1 million average americans in the NFL player age group who get it, will die.  With daily testing, better than average bodies, and the best hospital care, you're looking at 1 in 1 Million NFL players with covid dying from it and that's being EXTREMELY generous to your side of the argument.  No NFL player is gonna die from this.

 

[Deamon]

Not to put words in @Hot Sauce Guy 's mouth, but I think the point is that it is wide spread enough that you could find an enough people for any demographic data set. You don't need to compare specifically to NFL players which is obviously a small sample size, you could use other athletes or gym rats who are more athletic/muscular than the population at large and see if it confers any benefit. Death is the only stat that is really being tracked outside of infections, but there are healthy young people that get major issues like the guy who had a leg amputated or the 20 something year old woman who needed a double lung transplant. Or there are stories about how people got it 3 months ago and still get winded walking to the bathroom. They did not die, but it still would not be ideal for an NFL player or anyone really. Is it likely that a ton of NFL players would die? Probably not, but it is possible some might. Would heavier linemen or older coaches be at increased risk? Possibly? I dunno. If you add the risk of death + any sort of long term physical issue it seems likely that some NFL player might have an early retirement. I guess how much people care depends on if it is a 3rd string safety or Mahomes. 

There's exceptions for everything.  The risk of driving and getting in a car accident is greater.  Yet no one scoffs when Zeke drives himself down the highway, putting his life at a greater risk then a covid infection is to him.

 

[barackdhouse]

Connecting back to the NFL: Let's imagine a scenario where things start up, infections start to happen, and one player with name recognition winds up in the hospital on a ventilator. What kind of effect do you think that will have on the rest of the players, the player's union, the morale of the league?

The NFL has a long track record of not caring about the health of its players. It will try to open back up. But the PR is going to be very bad when something bad happens, and it will.

This is absolutely going to happen. Whether it gets to the point of a player or coach being put on a ventilator, or even simply hospitalized, is one thing. But the idea that you can be asymptomatic and still highly contagious, and that the incubation period is so long, is what truly makes this bug so formidable, more so than the mortality question. It makes it unbelievably difficult to manage from the standpoints we're talking about, like how to have an NBA season in Orlando where there is a major outbreak right now. Or how the NFL might follow suit.

So consider this, forget for a second the question of hospitalizations, what happens if more than one player test positive in the same locker room? Or more than one player/coach? It would be considered incredibly plausible that the whole team needs to be isolated. EVEN IF WE DISAGREE ABOUT THAT, you know that's what the players, unions, agents, and press will say, because the likelihood that the bug has spread beyond those two positives, is INCREDIBLY high. It would be disastrous if a couple weeks later most of team subsequently tested positive. This does not seem far fetched and if it happens, again regardless of whether any of these 20-44 year old healthy (many POC) males ever end up in a hospital, I gotta think the season gets shut down.