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His total rankings, workload, and numbers have improved every year, LT is gone, and the Jets really didn't do much to add a threat to take away carries. He may not be a sexy pick, but he ranked 18th last year and his ADP is currently RB 24. IMO, he is available at a discount and he should be viewed as a "buy."
According to MFL's ADP for 2011 he was taken as RB19 (non-ppr) and RB20 (ppr). He finished as RB19 (non-ppr) and RB 20 (ppr). Don't see how anyone could have gotten 'burned' by him last year unless they were over-drafting him.I actually think Greene is a very underrated fantasy RB for 2012. Sure, he doesn't have the talent you want in a franchise back, but there are some things he does well (runs hard and with good pad level, breaks tackles, has cut down on fumbles and didn't lose one in 2011). Combining the coaching staff's talk of recommitting to the ground game with (hopefully) improved line play and a contract year for Greene, I think we should see a slight improvement in his production. Last year he put up about 1300 total yards and 6 TDs, and I could easily see him going for 1400/8 this year, though I'm sure most would disagree with me on that. He's currently (according to MFL) being drafted as RB26/27 so to me he looks like a steal. Great dynasty back to build your team around? Probably not, but he is what he is and his situation looks primed for decent production in 2012. Just my two cents...
I don't buy that at all
I should've added at the goal line-taking away what little production S Greene there.
How do you dismiss that?Tebow went 660/6 last year.
McGahee had a career year with Tebow at QB and Greene has always had another player taking his TDs. It's basically the same situation he's always been in, so matters aren't any worse.
For starters, Tebow hasn't posted 660/6 for the Jets yet.But since you brought it up, here were all the other times QBs ran for 600/6 in a season and how the RB(s) did on that team. I listed total yfs and total TD, since for fantasy purposes there is no real difference in most leagues.
QB Year Ryds RTD RB YFS TTDCam Newton 2011 706 14 Williams/Stewart 2175 12Tim Tebow 2011 660 6 Willis McGahee 1250 5Michael Vick 2010 676 9 LeSean McCoy 1672 9DCulpepper 2002 603 10 Michael Bennett 1647 6Michael Vick 2002 777 8 Warrick Dunn 1304 9Donovan McNabb 2000 629 6 Autry/Staley 1154 5Steve McNair 1997 674 8 Eddie George 1443 7RCunningham 1988 624 6 Byers/Toney 1980 15Bobby Douglass 1972 968 8 RBBC 1417 16Tebow if/when he takes over will only help create running lanes for Greene. I am a Jets diehard and I am certainly not impressed with Greene's talent level but McGahee and the entire Broncos running attack did better once Tebow took the reigns. Agree that Shonn is undervalued. Good target as a 3rd RB you can nab in round 8.
mcgahee's yardage was great and he had a career year in that aspect, but only 4 TD's. not exactly a ringing endorsement for a plodder like greene who needs TD's to score points.
The only guy stealing Greene's TD's last year was Brian Schottenheimer. He hated S.Greene at the goal line. 1st and goal was play-action pass 99% of the time.So I had hopes that bringing Sporano in would change that. But now with Tebow, I'm not so sure. I wouldn't count on Greene as a RB2, but would be happy with the upside as a RB3.ETA: Greene could have easily had 10-12 TD's last year if not for the play calling at the goal line.
I see your points (very good ones, BTW), but I actually like him in PPR for the following:He is not a 3rd down guy who will get you 4 points one week and 15 the next...whatever he will bring, it will be consistent (making it possible for you to pick up a guy who is more boom/bust later). He is the undisputed starter and though it may not be much, you could almost call him a bell-cow RB. The Jets, unless they get McKnight more involved, have to replace the catches that went to Jones and LT in years past. Sparano used his starter as a pass-catching RB (Brown and Bush) in Miami...the real question is, can Greene catch the ball or did they just use someone else to do it. ADP was not known as a pass catching RB when he came into the league and saw his receptions rise from 19-21-43-36 in his first four years. Not huge, but in Year 1, he had 45 points in PPR on receptions/yards and that ballooned to 86 in Year 3. Greene went from 0 points in PPR receptions/yards to 51 FF PPR points in the receiving game in Year 3, and that was with LT still on the roster.I am a Jets fan, and while the production is not pretty, it is there at the value...hard to argue with a guy who finished with a higher fantasy production in 2011, who actually has a lower ADP coming into 2012, coupled with the loss of a guy (LT) who had 42 receptions that has not been replaced on said team.
Bingo Bilal Powell, while maybe holding promise, hasnt shown anything to date. McKnight cant stay away from the MCD drive-thru. Only concern is usage of Tebow in a vulture role. Not prediciting any huge breakout here. Just playing a numbers game.
FWIW, Greene was a poor passing downs RB in college. Poor blocking technique and fought the ball instead of bringing it in. Not saying he can't learn it, but based on his issues in college and use so far in the pros I think betting on him developing that aspect of his game would be a poor one.
While this may be true, fact is they fed him 30 recpts last year at 7.0 per recpt. While that isn't optimal, there is nothing to indicate he won't receive a similar level this year. In ppr, one could do a lot worse than this for an RB 2/3, especially in the late 6th or later of a redraft....just my opinion'MAC_32 said:
It really shouldn't matter how good Greene is if he is going to push 300 touches. Based on the chart you just linked to, his ADP (at least there) is RB27.In the past 10 seasons, there have been 120 times when a RB had 300+ touches. Larry Johnson had by far the worst season of them all, scoring only 107 fantasy points in 2009 when he scored 0 TD with a 2.97 ypc. 114 times in that time span the RB had at least 160 fantasy points. Last season, 160 points would have ranked as the #20 RB. 98 times backs with 300+ touches scored at least 180 fantasy points. In 2011, that would have ranked as the #13 RB. By my math, 300+ touch backs the past 10 years had a roughly 95% chance of ranking in the Top 20 and an 82% chance of ranking near RB1 status.Certainly there is nothing etched in stone that will make Greene hit the magic 300 touch threshold. He could get benched. He could lose touches to Tebow. He could get hurt. It could turn into a RBBC. At this stage, I don't see any of those things happening, so IMO I see Greene pushing that 300 touch mark if he can stay healthy . . . even if his pedigree is less than stellar.Maybe the other options you mentioned have higher total upside if they win the starting job outright and if everything plays out their way. But I would happily take a guy with Greene's projected workload in the SEVENTH ROUND when I would already have a stable of other guys I could rely on. IMO, perfect #3 fantasy RB, flex option, or just plain depth for when byes and injuries hit.
This.Not expecting top ten numbers or a stud by any means, but he's under-rated and can easily function as your RB2 purchased at a RB3 pricetag.
Except for getting hurt I see all of those things as extremely likely. Let's face it, the run game HAS to work for the Jets. Their passing game will suck. Their defense depends on the run to allow them to win games 14-10. Unless Greene turns into a totally different player we will likely see as much McKnight and Tebow in the run game as they can get in. I'd be surprised if Greene eclipsed 250 based on his performance as a pro thus far.
I think you are underselling Greene a little bit. As outlined earlier, his numbers and workload have GONE UP since he came to the Jets. He's also become more integrated in the passing game. His career ypc is a respectable 4.32 (which climmbs to 4.44 when you add in his post season carries). The Jets didn't really add anyone to either take his job or compete for carries. From Week 5 on last year, he ranked as the #12 fantasy RB in 0 ppr leagues . . . a couple points behind Chris Johnson, Darren Sproles, and on par with Ryan Mathews.Here were the ypc totals for the Jets backs since Greene came to New York:
McKnight has the most home run power, so he'd be the best dice roll. I wouldn't bother except in incredibly deep/dyno leagues though. In all likelihood it'll be a messy timeshare if something were to happen to Greene and none of these guys will get the goal line anyway.
Where I own Greene, I've added Powell. I don't think McKnight is a threat to take Greene's job. No clue on Ganaway though.
Everyone has the right price. I just don't buy a vision of him being good enough to warrant a workhorse approach centered around him. The JEts desperately need to improve their offense so they are not wholly dependent on their declining defense.Here are their ranks the past three seasons
I may be way off here, but MAYBE the reason the Jets rushing yardage has dropped may be due to the fact they went from 607 attempts to 534 attempts to 443 attempts. That has nothing to do with Greene. IMO, that is more an indictment of the defense. They went from being tops in the league (allowing the offense to ground and pound) to being suspect at times (forcing the offense to have to throw a lot more). Again, not sure that has anything to do with Greene.
Plus, it was well documented (and Jets fans know this), the line looked awful at times last year. While nothing was done to majorly, they have brought in a few vets in case Wayne Hunter continues to struggle...they were forced to start him last year.
Totally agree. I owned him the last couple years in PPR and a typical game would be like 60-80 yards no TDs and two receptions for 13 yards (just off the top of my head).I am probably not the one to ask as I've just really soured on this guy because I had really high hopes for him. I shopped him like crazy this offseason in a PPR $100 cap auction/keeper league and finally traded him as part of a package to move up in my rookie draft and secure Andrew Luck (2012 2.2 + 2013 first + Green ($5/2013 for Luck).I can see "buy"-ing him as a no-upside RB3 or you could maybe have him as a bottom of the barrel RB2 if your team is loaded elsewhere and you can live with getting 8 points most weeks from that spot. But as said prior I'd probably shoot for RBs with higher upside around his ADP.The 2012 situation could get better with Sparano/Tebow etc but again I just wouldn't put my money on it. There have been reasons for optimism before and lots of positive coach-speak but little results.
Final year of his contract. Wear him out as much as his pedestrian self will allow.
Just picked up McKnight and Powell off the wire base on this post. 
30 catches last season, that's not so bad. I agree about the no upside aspect but I don't think he's that much of a liability in the passing game if he can get 30+ catches.
You forgot Ganaway.This backfield looks like an RBBC for this year and the future.Final year of his contract. Wear him out as much as his pedestrian self will allow.
If he's there in the late 2nd or 3rd round, you could do worse. But this guy has disappointed severely. After his rookie year in the playoffs, this guy was prime to take over as a top 5 guy. He's wasted that chance but he's still in a system that provides opportunity with no clear rival in the backfield with him.
