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Shonne Greene (1 Viewer)
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Dez
Footballguy
Probably goes for 2,000 yards and 20 TD's since I just traded him a few weeks ago.
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
With one of the best O-lines on a franchise 2nd only to the Chiefs in rush attempts, with the luxury of basically a HOF Fullback he: rushed for an avg. of 4.1 with 2 TD's total and couldn't outshine LT. and doesn't catch passes. Whatever you spin Shottenheimer
NajehHejan
Footballguy
If Greene underwhelms again, who is the beneficiary? An aging Tomlinson? 2nd year guy McKnight? The rookie Powell?
Andrew Garda
Moderator
I'm bullish on Powell. I think initially LT would get more work but if Greene was underwhelming, Powell is the guy IMO. I don't think McKnight can pull it together.
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
I think you have more chance to see some Powell later in the season as seems to be the Ryan MO in the 2 prior seasons as his older starters wear down. I like Powell as well, but you will see some McNight used more this season as well.
These numbers are a bit mis-leading.Were the Jet's one of the best O-lines in the NFL in 2010?Absolutely, they paved the way for the 4th highest YPC of any team. What's misleading, though, is what Greene did behind that line.The 4th ranked 2010 Jets O-line allowed their RBs to rush for 4.0 yards-per-carry. Greene averaged 4.1 YPC (better than the O-line's average), the same as LT, despite the fact that Greene was relied upon to handle most of the between the tackles grunt work in obvious running situations, while LT was given more opportunities on outside plays and (more importantly) plays that weren't obviously run plays.Did Green only score 2 TDs? Absolutely, but he only had 3 rushes from inside the opponents 5. It's hard to score TDs when you aren't given the opportunities. In fact, the Jets had the 5th fewest rushes from inside the 5 in 2010, after being tied for 11th most in 2009. Greene's lack of TDs can be attributed to chance. Schottenheimer and Ryan seem to be coaches who prefer to run the ball, so I'd be willing to assume their 2011 goal-line rushes will be more in line with 2009 than 2010.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Your view of Greene is not uncommon and I just don't get it. I've never seen so many that are ready to jump OFF the bandwagon of a guy averaging 4.5 yards a carry in his first 300 career attempts than Shonn Greene. Because he's slow. A plodder. Four yards and a pile of dust. Yet Peyton Hillis averages less (4.4 ypc) last year and he's a beast. We can't get enough of him. I have a hunch it's because of the stone hands. Hillis is the anti-Greene as a receiver and the fantasy crowd loves our dual-threat RB's. I'm not saying Greene is a top 7 RB or anything. He has his faults. He's not a receiver. He's not a home run threat. But L.T. wore down big time in the second half of the season - Greene did outshine him later in the year. McKnight is too slight of build to play more than a complimentary role and, while I like Powell long term, he's yet to pick up a playbook and won't for the foreseeable future.
Shonn Greene is far away the Jets best option on first and second down this year. And in this offsense, that role is good for 270 rushing attempts. Assuming that carries with it more than 1.5 rushing attempts inside the opponent's red zone each week (see: 2010), the touchdowns shouldn't be a problem either. Greene has his faults, but people are writing him off way too soon.
I am willing to accept that the TDs will come, but the carries may be a different story.
The Jets ran a huge number of plays (around 1050) last season. The split was about 50-50 pass and run. If the split holds and the number of plays goes down to a more reasonable (yet still high) 1000 plays, then you have about 500 carries to go around. I'd say a minimum 80 of those go to Sanchez, WRs (Brad Smith or Kerley) and the FBs.
How many of the 420 does Greene get? To reach 300 carries, he needs to claim 70%+ of the remaining pie. His highest last season was 58%. He averaged 50% starting in Week 11 (I chose Week 11 as the cutoff, because that's when Greene started seeing the majority of carries). Note that those figures were without McKnight or Bilal in the mix.
Sure, the percentage should increase in 2011, but I don't see it getting to 71%. So I'd say 60% for 250 carries is a more realistic expectation.
The ypc is another bothersome stat. The 4.1 ypc people are talking about is on the season as a whole. After the bye week, as Greene starts seeing more carries, the number drops to 3.9. It's 3.8 in games he got 15 carries or more. Anybody who projects Greene to improve on the 4.1 ypc from last season should consider these numbers.
The Jets ran a huge number of plays (around 1050) last season. The split was about 50-50 pass and run. If the split holds and the number of plays goes down to a more reasonable (yet still high) 1000 plays, then you have about 500 carries to go around. I'd say a minimum 80 of those go to Sanchez, WRs (Brad Smith or Kerley) and the FBs.
How many of the 420 does Greene get? To reach 300 carries, he needs to claim 70%+ of the remaining pie. His highest last season was 58%. He averaged 50% starting in Week 11 (I chose Week 11 as the cutoff, because that's when Greene started seeing the majority of carries). Note that those figures were without McKnight or Bilal in the mix.
Sure, the percentage should increase in 2011, but I don't see it getting to 71%. So I'd say 60% for 250 carries is a more realistic expectation.
The ypc is another bothersome stat. The 4.1 ypc people are talking about is on the season as a whole. After the bye week, as Greene starts seeing more carries, the number drops to 3.9. It's 3.8 in games he got 15 carries or more. Anybody who projects Greene to improve on the 4.1 ypc from last season should consider these numbers.
Again, while this stat may technically be true, the way it is presented is mis-leading.Did Greene "see more carries" after the bye? Absolutely, about .8 more carries/game. He was seeing 11.8 carries/game before the bye, and he saw 12.6 carries/game after the bye. This is statistically insignificant, therefore the decrease in YPC after the bye is not linked to his extra .8 carry/game he received.
Can anyone think of a suitable precedent for a successful Shonn Greene? Some other RB with a similar first two years that went on to be killer? My first instinct was Mendenhall, but he only disappointed his rookie year before showing something. Anyone else?
Greene was supposed to be the bellcow last year, and I specifically remember him losing his nerve in Game 1 against Baltimore. LT was supposed to be the 3rd down guy LAST year, but ended up having a modestly successful year taking all of Greene's carries.
I'm not usually one to push an 'eyeball' test, but give Greene a look on youtube; his highlights are all 'head of steam' runs through gaping holes (LT was much more impressive, IMO).
That being said, the Jets enjoy a disproportionate amount of media coverage, and people remark endlessly about how the key to their success is Sanchez's improvement, the pass rush, etc., without mentioning the fact that the lead back in their ground-based offense is completely unproven.
You would think drafting Bilal Powell puts Greene 'on notice,' but all the coverage of it revolved around how the Jets are displeased with Joe McKnight. I guess I'm at a loss.
It's been proven countless times a strong running game doesn't need an uber-talented back, so given the quality of the Jet's O-line and Greene being the #1 guy, he ought to be a serviceable flex guy if nothing else. Ultimately, from a value-drafting perspective, I'd rather take a late shot at Powell or LT (who will likely get the goalline carries again, BTW), then spend a higher pick on Greene. There are better breakout candidates for 2011.
Greene was supposed to be the bellcow last year, and I specifically remember him losing his nerve in Game 1 against Baltimore. LT was supposed to be the 3rd down guy LAST year, but ended up having a modestly successful year taking all of Greene's carries.
I'm not usually one to push an 'eyeball' test, but give Greene a look on youtube; his highlights are all 'head of steam' runs through gaping holes (LT was much more impressive, IMO).
That being said, the Jets enjoy a disproportionate amount of media coverage, and people remark endlessly about how the key to their success is Sanchez's improvement, the pass rush, etc., without mentioning the fact that the lead back in their ground-based offense is completely unproven.
You would think drafting Bilal Powell puts Greene 'on notice,' but all the coverage of it revolved around how the Jets are displeased with Joe McKnight. I guess I'm at a loss.
It's been proven countless times a strong running game doesn't need an uber-talented back, so given the quality of the Jet's O-line and Greene being the #1 guy, he ought to be a serviceable flex guy if nothing else. Ultimately, from a value-drafting perspective, I'd rather take a late shot at Powell or LT (who will likely get the goalline carries again, BTW), then spend a higher pick on Greene. There are better breakout candidates for 2011.
I am not really after selling Greene as good or bad here. You will think of him whatever you think of him. I am just using my best analytical and quantitative skills to figure out how I personally feel about Greene's FF prospects in light of his coach's comments.Using the bye week is a fine cut off. However, I prefer the Cleveland game in Week 10, which I view as the game in which Greene re-established himself in the primary role. I see a noticeable difference in the number of carries before and after: 10.9 vs 14. But there is one stat I offered that is more meaningful: the ypc when given 15+ carries.Anyway, my bottomline is: I probably won't be owning Greene in redrafts because there will too many people higher on him like yourself. In PPR, it looks even bleaker for me.In dynasty, I don't own him. If I did, I'd be probably be looking to sell high and hope to catch someone who projects 300 carries, 4.5 ypc.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
I think you might be overestimating how good Greene has to be to be good. The key is keeping expectations in check and at an ADP of 4.11, #21 RB overall, I'd say the average mocker is doing that. Nobody's proclaiming him to be anything more than a bubble top 10 RB (at best). Good luck with hoping to sell hi for a back that projects for 300 att. and 4.5 ypc. Only 7 RB's surpassed 300 carries last year and of those only one (Arian Foster) averaged greater than 4.5 ypc. In fact, only 8 RB's averaged 4.5 or better on 200+ attempts. You may end up being right about him, but that ypc on 15+ attempts that you believe is more meaningful, that's jumping to a lot of conclusions based on the three games he had 15+ attempts.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Thomas Jones is the poster-boy for this scenario from his days in AZ (while not putting up great numbers in TB, that is where he first showed signs of life and I think that was 4 years into his career). More recently, Cedric Benson was also flat-out "not good" in CHI and has done a nice job on a worse team in Cincy.You also have guys like Ryan Grant and Derrick Ward who could not get on the field with their first teams and excel a few years in when given more of a chance, but that is a little different than this case.
While Greene did not seize the job in NY, you have to admit, he was playing along capable (though older) RBs in LT and Jones. He is not going to have many more chances in NY, but it is not like he is averaging 3.0 yards/carry...he is just not killing it like we all hoped he would.
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
These are all interesting points and certainly possible, but for where he is being drafted there are many other players I'd feel better about. Aside from the stat argument, he has shown me nothing that instills any confidence going forward that he can be that clear cut a better option over not only the other RB's on his own team, but others I can draft instead of him.
Good points. I would only add that unlike Benson or Jones, Greene is not a former first-round pick with the kind of natural ability that warrants optimism despite poor production. He's replaceable, and you'd think Powell is that possible replacement were it not for all the Joe McKnight talk. With LT being one of the best redzone backs in NFL history and still around, I also don't see why some people see it as a given that Greene's TD's will increase by any meaningful degree.In the end, it seems as if everyone is in agreement. One of the more optimistic posters mentioned Greene as a 'bubble top-ten' at best; I'm down on him yet I agree with that completely.
What do we think about Bilal Powell? I've seen highlights; he looks like a capable 'between-the-tackles' guy, and I can't imagine why they'd draft him to be anything else since McKnight and LT are both 3rd-down types, but that being said, I'm sure someone here knows better.
With all due respect, you may think you are trying to evaluate Greene fairly, but you appear to have a bias against him.
If you are truly trying evaluate Greene's FF prospects "in light of his coach's comments," why did you choose 15 carries as your benchmark? Schottenheimer clearly mentioned 18+ carries/game:"Schottenheimer says .... expects him to be a consistent 18+ carry per week back."
Because if you use 18+ carries/game as the benchmark, Greene averaged 4.3 YPC.
It would seem that evaluating Greene in light of Shottenheimer's comments would make his FF prospects look better than you are predicting.
Using the bye week as a cut-off came from YOUR post, not mine. But, again, using this new cut-off fails to take into account the whole picture. In the first 10 games (before the Browns game), the Jets played against run D's that were, on average, the 12th easiest run defense. The toughest D the Jets faced over this span were the 13th ranked Patriots. Over the final 5 games (the Browns game on), the run D's the Jets faced were, on average, the 10th hardest run defense. These teams included the #1 ranked Steelers, and the 3rd toughest against the run Bears.Don't you think that the .5 YPC drop could be attributed to the quality of run defense the Jets faced, and not Greene "wearing down" with additional carries, as you seem to by hypothesizing?
As I noted above, picking 15 carries/game as a benchmark is arbitrary. If you pick 18 (as his coach mentioned), (or even 13 carries/game, whenhe averaged 4.1 YPC) you get better numbers.
I probably won't be owning him either, as I see him as a fine RB2, but I feel he will go for a RB1 price. I just believe your logic for de-valuing him was flawed. BTW-in PPR, his value definitely goes down.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
That's what they want and if he didn't fumble twice in the 1st game last yr he might of had a 300 carry season. The staff is going to give him a chance for a 300 carry season and he should atleast have goal-line opps. High RB2 with RB1 floor imo.
I don't see a bias against Greene at all, but I don’t have an issue if you think I have one. It’s all fair in love and FF projections.On the ypc - I used what makes sense to me (15 carries, Week 10). 15 carries is arbitrary indeed. You can go with the 13 or 18 if you like those more. 13 is too few for me, 18 is very small sample size, so I will stick with the 15. The point here is not the exact ypc. The point is that I think his ypc will be low at a high rate of carries. For projection purposes, I give him a cautiously optimistic 4.0 ypc. One can surely go with the 4.3 or higher, but going below 4.0 might be easier to substantiate.On the cutoff point - Week 10 is the only point that makes sense to me. That’s where he took over as the main guy. I incorrectly typed ‘bye week’ in my very first post (sorry!!), but you can see my numbers match the Week 10 data. Again, the point is not the exact cutoff. The point is to estimate what percentage of the total pie Greene sees. On the number of carries – I see no reason to buy the 18 carries talk as an exact number. You might, but I just don’t. All I see in that statement is “Greene will be my main guy.” I explained earlier why I find it unlikely that the numbers can add up to a full 18 on a weekly basis. Bottomline, I see the guy as 15-16 carries a week, 4.0 ypc. If I owned Greene and could find someone who sees 18 carries, 4.3 ypc, that would be when I happily trade.I don’t have enough to go on for any credible analysis of the TD count. It would be interesting to research Greene’s effectiveness inside the 5 and then projecting the number of trips the Jets will make there, but too much work. I’d blindly peg the TDs at 9, acknowledging it could easily be +4 or -4. 250/1000/9
But why does that make sense to you? You are picking an arbitrary number, which happens to prove your point. If you are doing so intentionally, that shows bias. If it is just a coincidence, it is one that shows a major flaw in your logic.Greene has averaged 4.5 YPC over his 2-year career, including a 4.7 YPC in the 7 games where he has had 15+ carries. How would it be "easier to substantiate" using a YPC of 4.0 (and call it optimistic), when he's proven the ability to do much better than that?
Greene averaged 14 carries/game over those games, and LT averaged 13.7. That's pretty much a 50/50 split. Estimating a 50/50 split, when the OC has come out and say one RB will be the "bellcow" doesn't make much sense.
No offense, but I see more reason to buy the 18 carry talk from the OC than to buy the 15 carry idea you have, which (IMO) is not logical.
If you owned him, I'd imagine you'd be able to find plenty of trade partners, then. I would bet that most people are going to project him at 280-290 carries, with a 4.2-4.3 YPC. I'm not saying he'll hit that, but I feel that this is where his average projections will be, especially after the Schottenheimer quote.Thanks for the debate. It's nice to have one that doesn't turn into insults and arguments, as often happens.
Shutout
Footballguy
This will Greene's year (I'm replying to this post because a few things were mentioned that I think fits with my points.Like said above, there are guys that fit the mold of having that break out performance and greens has played with older, yet HOF type players.'Sweet Love said:
My theory on a breakout is this:
Some backs need a certain rythmn and number of carries to be able to see what they can really do in a game. Jones, Benson, and others are like that but the guy I really think of when I think of Greene is Jamal Lewis or perhaps Michael Turner. these are guys that end up with the good totals and are effective as a result of their combined work. They may run 7 times and average 2.3 yards early in games BUT when they are featured and the team is committed to running (as the Jets will be and will have opportunities), they wear down teams late in games and then break those larger runs or get the TD late in the game.
The Jets are a perfect team for this kind of scenario because they ARE a good team and will have their share of leads and teams will get worn out from trying to take a pounding from a big back late in the game when they have all but lost. We used to see this with Lewis and Jones and guys like that all the time. We saw it a time or two last year with Turner.
But the difference this year will be that Greene will get the chance to operate this way. Last year, the Jets didn't wear teams out with LT and greene didn't have the worn down defenders to smash. But, IF YOU GO BACK to Greene's rookie season when they had Jones and they played much more like they will now with Greene, then you see how effective he was.
The other part to my thoughts on this is, if you take out fantasy and just look at it from a real life perspective, this is setting up for it to be Greene's time for the next few years. Realistically, the Jets were very smart. They played older Rbs that were still capable a lot. gave them lots of work. And did it as they were building up the rookie QB and putting other things into place and without wearing out their young RB. Now, all the guys are in place (and it can't be overlooked that they get key defenders bcak this year that should make the teamd better with a healthy Revis, Leonhard, some of the D-line that played nicked up, etc), and the Jets have a fresh young brusing RB that can wear teams out.
I think the real life production from greene will be great this year and it will translate into RB1 production in Fantasy. I really think people in FF communities have just soured on him too quickly because he was expected to be so good so quick. When he came in, everyone noted how the Jets made a point to go up in the draft and get him and everyone thought Jones was done so when so many people drafted him high thinking he was going to be a year one bellcow, they were disappointed. BUT they saw a flash late int he season and the playoffs. SO they went into the NEXT year thinking "Ok, NOW its time". And then the Jets got rid of Jones and people were REALLY like "Ok it's definitely on now". But then the Jets threw a curve ball and brought in LT and so the hopes were dashed again for a 2nd year and FF people don't usually have alot of patience for someone they bought high on or drafted with a top 6 or so rookie pick. The bar was high.
But its different now. No Jones, LT can't do it, and the coaches have flat out said "18+ carries a game...he WILL be our bellcow". On a good team, you gotta take that for what its worth. When the Steelers say it, people listen. When the Browns said it last year, people learned it. Its time to pay attention.
Debate is good. Rational, insult-free criticism helps me refine my thinking. I appreciate that wherever I can find it.
Now…………
I explain why 15 carries makes sense to me. 12 is too few for a ‘bellcow’. 18 does not have enough data points.
Regardless, the discussion about the choice of 15 is kinda overkill. I am not using the 15-carries data for anything beyond highlighting that Greene did not get better with more carries. His average when given 15+ is below his total 2010 average - that’s all I am pointing out. If you think my finding is not worth much because looking at 13 or 18 carry games is more logical, I won't argue.
Your point about including all of Greene’s performance from 2009 is excellent and I will gladly concede that. Yes, he performed better in the past. But if you are going to rely on that, then you must have a theory why the ypc fell off so badly? The drop between the first and the second half of the season is signficant.
• Do you think Greene got worse, or tired, or dinged?
• Or do you think the Jets got worse as a running team, since LT’s numbers fell off as well?
• Most importantly, which set of data points do you put more weight on for projecting 2011?
Clearly, I value later weeks more.
I do think my post is pretty clear on projections. I am not projecting Greene / LT in an even split, not even close. I gave Greene 60% of all RB carries, including LT, McKnight and Powell. You don’t see this as fair? I think he averaged 50% after our famous Week 10 and that’s sharing only with LT. What percentage do you think he gets?
Now…………
I explain why 15 carries makes sense to me. 12 is too few for a ‘bellcow’. 18 does not have enough data points.
Regardless, the discussion about the choice of 15 is kinda overkill. I am not using the 15-carries data for anything beyond highlighting that Greene did not get better with more carries. His average when given 15+ is below his total 2010 average - that’s all I am pointing out. If you think my finding is not worth much because looking at 13 or 18 carry games is more logical, I won't argue.
Your point about including all of Greene’s performance from 2009 is excellent and I will gladly concede that. Yes, he performed better in the past. But if you are going to rely on that, then you must have a theory why the ypc fell off so badly? The drop between the first and the second half of the season is signficant.
• Do you think Greene got worse, or tired, or dinged?
• Or do you think the Jets got worse as a running team, since LT’s numbers fell off as well?
• Most importantly, which set of data points do you put more weight on for projecting 2011?
Clearly, I value later weeks more.
I do think my post is pretty clear on projections. I am not projecting Greene / LT in an even split, not even close. I gave Greene 60% of all RB carries, including LT, McKnight and Powell. You don’t see this as fair? I think he averaged 50% after our famous Week 10 and that’s sharing only with LT. What percentage do you think he gets?
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I do have a theory, but it's not very scientific. Here it is:it happens.
Over the last 6 games of the 2010 season, Chris Johnson only averaged 3.9 YPC (after averaging 4.5 up to that point). Does that mean anything more than he had a stretch of bad games?
Over the last 7 games of the 2009 season, ADP only averaged 3.5 YPC (after averaging 4.7 up to that point). Did that mean anything more than a stretch of bad games?
Sometimes RBs have bad stretches, and that's all that it is. That being said, I do think the Jets tried to rely too much on Sanchez, and got away from their "bread-and-butter" which is the old Raven's blueprint of get the lead, then have your running game and D hold the lead.
I think your post is very clear with your projections. I just happen to disagree with some of your reasoning.I haven't done any projections yet; seeing as how the lockout has prevented much with which to base projections on. However, given the little bit of information we have (LT's age, Schottenheimer's statement, the fact that the Jets were not successful when they "went against their nature" & tried to be more of a passing team), I'd throw out 290 carries (a little over 18/game), at 4.3 YPC, for 1250 yards, 20 catches for 135 yards. I'd guess between 8-10 TDs.
Based on those numbers, I don't see myself acquiring him. I will not be surprised if Greene is projected by many people for 300+ carries, 1300+ yards, and 10+ TDs. He will likely cost more in a trade, or a higher pick than I'd be willing to invest.
Never was a Greene guy. He is an average talent when compared to other featured backs in this league (a dying breed at that). I had a very good feeling LT would steal the thunder and although the numbers say Greene should be an effective NFL back his skills tell me otherwise. He is one trick pony, has zero wiggle, losuy hands and IMO is also soft for a brusing power back.
The Jets will employ the RBBC again in full force with LT being the man in the red zone and on thrid down. He still has some gas left in that huge HOF tank.
The Jets will employ the RBBC again in full force with LT being the man in the red zone and on thrid down. He still has some gas left in that huge HOF tank.
foxco
Footballguy
Greene caught 16 balls in part-time duty last year. If he's on the field more I don't see why he can't grab about 25. He's not going to be Brian Westbrook but I don't think he's as horrible in the passing game as a guy like Michael Turner, who has never had more than 12 catches in a season.
He was being drafed as a number one last year and was not even startable most weeks.
foxco
Footballguy
Was he really being drafted as a #1? In my drafts I *think* I remember him going between rounds 5-7, which is #2 territory for sure. There are certainly risks involved with this guy, but I think he has a great shot at being a solid #2 with upside this season if they do rely on him more.
bonesman
Footballguy
Your leagues have smart owners then because he was typically a late 2nd early 3rd kind of guy. A few people took him late first early 2nd. The latest he was drafted on FFcalc was 3.12
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I did 2 drafts last yr and he was a mid 2nd, RB10ish
