Should you put any stock in postseason performance for SP? (1 Viewer)

[elguapo07]

Looks like John Lester is on his way out of Boston. He's has a very good track record in the postseason and has been fantastic in the WS. Does this count or is it just a smaller sample of a good pitcher pitching a bit better than his career norms? Having a debate with a friend and he claims that postseason performance is irrelevant. He totally discounts athletes stepping up on a big stage and contens that a larger sample size said players would regress to their norms.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Looks like John Lester is on his way out of Boston. He's has a very good track record in the postseason and has been fantastic in the WS. Does this count or is it just a smaller sample of a good pitcher pitching a bit better than his career norms? Having a debate with a friend and he claims that postseason performance is irrelevant. He totally discounts athletes stepping up on a big stage and contens that a larger sample size said players would regress to their norms.

Of course he does. The gospel of SABR does not subscribe to the notion of clutch under pressure. In fact, the whole playoff tournament is a crap shoot. Bob Gibson and Jack Morris weren't great big game pitchers, they were just good players who randomly performed well within a small sample size. SSS is the go to response to anything doesn't fit a narrative. In the same vein, SABRmetrics does not acknowldege hot or cold streaks. Players are not streaky; we just cherry pick artificial end points to justify a perception.

 

[MAC_32]

Yes, but not as much as mainstream media does.

 

[Gopher State]

isn't price like 1-4 in post season with an earned run average of 5:06. small sample but something to think about