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SI.com article on 16 year-old Bryce Harper (1 Viewer)

"In 66 games, he hit 31 home runs, 98 RBI, hitting .443/.526/.987 (AVG/OBP/SLG). His 31 home runs broke the school's previous record of 12. He was named the 2010 SWAC Player of the Year. "Won the Golden Spikes award.That's pretty close to major league ready.
:thumbup: in JuCo?
yeah, in JuCo, with wooden bats. And he won the Golden Spikes award which encompasses all of amateur baseball.Not sure what more you wanted to see, .600 average? 40 homers in 66 games? His 31 homers beat the schools previous record of 12 homersI guess Albert Pujols wasn't major league ready when he went .329/.389/.565 with 17 homers in 104 games in low a ball @ 20 years old.
I think you are really overvaluing JuCo in context to even rookie ball. I wouldn't begin to say thats "pretty close to major league ready".
 
Harper is no where near MLB ready.A major league deal has to be off the table for this kid. To be required to burn his options when he's 16, 17 and 18 years old is plain insane.
These ideas put togethermake sense. But, I haven't heard anything about him being nowhere near MLB ready. If the Nats think he's MLB ready soon, he'll get the major league deal. And, as mentioned, your ages are off. He'll still be 17 when he signs the deal, but he'll be 18 two months later. So, 3 years after signing his contract, he'll almost be 20. If he's not MLB ready by then, then the hype is WAY off on him. I wouldn't be surprised with a September call up in 2011 and a legit shot at making the opening day roster in 2012.
He'll go to rookie ball after signing. He'll start next year in low A. The kid has never seen anything approaching MLB pitching and it takes a while for players to adjust at each level. Your timetable is much more accurate for a kid from LSU or Miami that's already a polished hitter and fielder. Right now, he's got amazing power, but he needs to develop his pitch recognition and contact abilities as well as spend some time learning to play OF.
Look, I'm no MLB scout, I'm not familiar with MLB draft/hype history, and I really don't know how long players usually take to get to the bigs based on age and experience. But, what I do realize is that you aren't putting him on a pedestal. That's fine and you are being consistent with your analysis based on that view.However, from what I've read about him, he's better than most. Saying "it takes a while for players to adjust at each level" is a general comment and may not apply to him. Saying my "timetable is much more accurate for a kid from LSU or Miami that's already a polished hitter and fielder" is, again, a general comment about a 17 year old and may not apply to Harper.Why the big fuss over him if he fits into the same general progression pattern as everyone else? I assumed the hype and taking him #1 overall and likely giving him a huge contract is based on the belief that he is "much more like a kid from LSU or Miami that's already a polished hitter" than a typical 17-year old.The angle you're taking here leads me to ask: So why was he the #1 pick?
 
"In 66 games, he hit 31 home runs, 98 RBI, hitting .443/.526/.987 (AVG/OBP/SLG). His 31 home runs broke the school's previous record of 12. He was named the 2010 SWAC Player of the Year. "Won the Golden Spikes award.That's pretty close to major league ready.
:goodposting: in JuCo?
yeah, in JuCo, with wooden bats. And he won the Golden Spikes award which encompasses all of amateur baseball.Not sure what more you wanted to see, .600 average? 40 homers in 66 games? His 31 homers beat the schools previous record of 12 homersI guess Albert Pujols wasn't major league ready when he went .329/.389/.565 with 17 homers in 104 games in low a ball @ 20 years old.
You don't know if Pujols will turn out to be a good MLB player...sample size is too small.
 
Harper is no where near MLB ready.A major league deal has to be off the table for this kid. To be required to burn his options when he's 16, 17 and 18 years old is plain insane.
These ideas put togethermake sense. But, I haven't heard anything about him being nowhere near MLB ready. If the Nats think he's MLB ready soon, he'll get the major league deal. And, as mentioned, your ages are off. He'll still be 17 when he signs the deal, but he'll be 18 two months later. So, 3 years after signing his contract, he'll almost be 20. If he's not MLB ready by then, then the hype is WAY off on him. I wouldn't be surprised with a September call up in 2011 and a legit shot at making the opening day roster in 2012.
He'll go to rookie ball after signing. He'll start next year in low A. The kid has never seen anything approaching MLB pitching and it takes a while for players to adjust at each level. Your timetable is much more accurate for a kid from LSU or Miami that's already a polished hitter and fielder. Right now, he's got amazing power, but he needs to develop his pitch recognition and contact abilities as well as spend some time learning to play OF.
Look, I'm no MLB scout, I'm not familiar with MLB draft/hype history, and I really don't know how long players usually take to get to the bigs based on age and experience. But, what I do realize is that you aren't putting him on a pedestal. That's fine and you are being consistent with your analysis based on that view.However, from what I've read about him, he's better than most. Saying "it takes a while for players to adjust at each level" is a general comment and may not apply to him. Saying my "timetable is much more accurate for a kid from LSU or Miami that's already a polished hitter and fielder" is, again, a general comment about a 17 year old and may not apply to Harper.Why the big fuss over him if he fits into the same general progression pattern as everyone else? I assumed the hype and taking him #1 overall and likely giving him a huge contract is based on the belief that he is "much more like a kid from LSU or Miami that's already a polished hitter" than a typical 17-year old.The angle you're taking here leads me to ask: So why was he the #1 pick?
dparker is right, for the most part. I think he's underplaying the level of competition Harper faced at juco and what he did there a bit (he was in the best Juco league in the country and was a man among boys), but otherwise he's right on .The kid's not gonna be playing in the big leagues in 2011, and he's not gonna be on an opening day roster in 2012. I think it's reasonable to think he might be a September 2012 callup and look for an opening day spot in 2013. No matter how good you are, you need to log significant time playing every day at your position (and remember, he's put in almost no time as an OF to date) before you are ready for big league baseball, and you need to see a lot of different pitches at the AA and AAA level- pitches with speed and movement he's never seen before. It's reasonable to think he'll be a big leaguer at 20 or maybe even before his 20th birthday, but not much before that.The fuss is because (1) he's more likely to be a big leaguer at the end of that progression, and (2) he's more likely to be a star big leaguer at the end of that progression. Not because he's ready to play in the majors in six months.
 
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So what are some historical comparisons for the best case scenario? I mean, if he's really "A once-in-a-generation talent", who do we have to compare him to and hope for?

The one name to obviously come to mind is Junior. Looks like he was drafted in 1987 as a 17 year old (birth date very close to Harper's), signed in 1987, and played some A- ball in 1987. He spent 1988 in A and AA and debuted in the majors in 1989. Are there any comparable examples of something happening faster? You know, outside of some midget in 1906 or something weird like that?

Looks like Junior's path would be comparable to Harper playing in the Arizona Fall League in 2010 and Potomac and Harrisburg in 2011 with no September call up and a 2012 debut. I understand that might be pie-in-the-sky best-case-scenario thinking. But, when someone is referred to as "A once-in-a-generation talent", that shouldn't be impossible. Again, not knowing much baseball history, I don't know what kind of hype Junior received and if his rise was a surprise.

Thanks for the info. Being a lifelong DC area resident, I'm new to this whole baseball thing.

 
So what are some historical comparisons for the best case scenario? I mean, if he's really "A once-in-a-generation talent", who do we have to compare him to and hope for?The one name to obviously come to mind is Junior. Looks like he was drafted in 1987 as a 17 year old (birth date very close to Harper's), signed in 1987, and played some A- ball in 1987. He spent 1988 in A and AA and debuted in the majors in 1989. Are there any comparable examples of something happening faster? You know, outside of some midget in 1906 or something weird like that?Looks like Junior's path would be comparable to Harper playing in the Arizona Fall League in 2010 and Potomac and Harrisburg in 2011 with no September call up and a 2012 debut. I understand that might be pie-in-the-sky best-case-scenario thinking. But, when someone is referred to as "A once-in-a-generation talent", that shouldn't be impossible. Again, not knowing much baseball history, I don't know what kind of hype Junior received and if his rise was a surprise.Thanks for the info. Being a lifelong DC area resident, I'm new to this whole baseball thing.
Chipper and A-Rod were also #1 overall picks at the same age as Harper with undisputed talent. Other than an 8 AB cup of coffee, Chipper didn't make it to the bigs until he was 23. A-Rod moved a lot faster, getting quick looks at 18 and 19 before arriving for good at age 20. A-Rod seems like a reasonable comparison to me. He was also a "once in a generation" five tool type guy as a youngster. Hopefully Harper is not a cheater like A-Rod. Anyway, I think that timeline looks reasonable, although I'm not sure how September cups of coffee affect the tolling of the arbitration clock.I think you have to consider the fact that he's never played the OF regularly. The Nats aren't gonna put a guy out there who doesn't know when to throw to the cutoff man and what route to take to fly balls. At least not until Nyjer Morgan is gone. can't afford more than one guy like that :confused:
 
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"In 66 games, he hit 31 home runs, 98 RBI, hitting .443/.526/.987 (AVG/OBP/SLG). His 31 home runs broke the school's previous record of 12. He was named the 2010 SWAC Player of the Year. "Won the Golden Spikes award.That's pretty close to major league ready.
:confused: in JuCo?
yeah, in JuCo, with wooden bats. And he won the Golden Spikes award which encompasses all of amateur baseball.Not sure what more you wanted to see, .600 average? 40 homers in 66 games? His 31 homers beat the schools previous record of 12 homersI guess Albert Pujols wasn't major league ready when he went .329/.389/.565 with 17 homers in 104 games in low a ball @ 20 years old.
I think you are really overvaluing JuCo in context to even rookie ball. I wouldn't begin to say thats "pretty close to major league ready".
The JuCo league he was in was very competitive...probably the best. He nearly triples the existing home run record using a wood bat. I don't understand the points trying to be made against Harper. He's 17, he's destroyed baseballs all long. He's in college at 16 destroying records. What's with the hate and negativity. There's all sorts of guy who come from community college or straight from high school. I think the kid could play next year. He won't but he's got the talent.
 
Just for the record I'm pretty sure 8 other players on his JUCO team were also drafted.

JUCO LOL

I honestly feel some people would better be served to avoid this forum or at a minimum just stick to the Yankees threads.

 
I think you have to consider the fact that he's never played the OF regularly.
Yeah, I have to go with "I'm new to baseball" defense again. Is it really that hard to learn? I mean, RF, that's where they put the loser kids, no? :lmao:
The Nats aren't gonna put a guy out there who doesn't know when to throw to the cutoff man and what route to take to fly balls. At least not until Nyjer Morgan is gone. can't afford more than one guy like that :)
:lmao:Yes, they clearly have a no-nonsense defensive philosophy.
 
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I think you have to consider the fact that he's never played the OF regularly.
Yeah, I have to go with "I'm new to baseball" defense again. Is it really that hard to learn? I mean, RF, that's where they put the loser kids, no? :lmao:
The Nats aren't gonna put a guy out there who doesn't know when to throw to the cutoff man and what route to take to fly balls. At least not until Nyjer Morgan is gone. can't afford more than one guy like that :)
:lmao:Yes, they clearly have a no-nonsense defensive philosophy.
They put the loser kids in LF or at 1B. More decisions to make in RF, with runners tagging from second to third sometimes. It's definitely an "offensive" position as compared to the up the middle spots, but it's nice to have a guy with a big arm out there. The Nats moved Dunn to 1B in part so they could hide Willingham in LF, because they didn't like playing him in RF. Although Dunn's suckiness in LF due to lack of mobility was obviously a part of the decision also. Harper's perfect for RF because he's obviously has a gun for an arm (he's been a catcher all his life) and some speed as well.
 
The angle you're taking here leads me to ask: So why was he the #1 pick?
Simple answer: Chicks dig the long ballThe guy has as much raw power as anyone the scouts have seen at that age. The hype started because of his HR hitting in BP or a HR derby at like 15. He also has a very strong arm and is a good overall athlete that was playing catcher. However, the level of pitching any amateur sees just isnt that good. Most scouts also don't project him to hit for a high average - an OK average, just not a good average. Plus he's moving off catcher to a corner OF spot. As for the hype, he's a great prospect, certainly deserving of a number 1 overall pick, but he's not in Strasburg's class. Strasburg would be the top pitcher taken in pretty much any draft at any time. You just don't see that kind of stuff and control for an amateur. Harper is an elite prospect, but just not at that level.
 
Just for the record I'm pretty sure 8 other players on his JUCO team were also drafted.

JUCO LOL

I honestly feel some people would better be served to avoid this forum or at a minimum just stick to the Yankees threads.
How many guys have made the jump from JuCo to the bigs, Professor Doubleday?My issue isn't with playing Juco or saying its competitive, its making an argument that someone could be "close to the big leagues" based on a season there.

I'll hang up and listen.

 
Just for the record I'm pretty sure 8 other players on his JUCO team were also drafted.

JUCO LOL

I honestly feel some people would better be served to avoid this forum or at a minimum just stick to the Yankees threads.
How many guys have made the jump from JuCo to the bigs, Professor Doubleday?My issue isn't with playing Juco or saying its competitive, its making an argument that someone could be "close to the big leagues" based on a season there.

I'll hang up and listen.
I don't think anyone was suggesting he was being called up this year :lmao: Pretty sure Jackie Robinson made the jump as did a few others. If you don't think the kid is close to big league talent I think you're wrong. Look at some of the bums who get called up everyday. But what do I know. I just DESTROY fantasy leagues nationwide.
 
Like I said, there was a less than zero % chance he wasn't going to sign. There was literally zero upside to him NOT signing.

 
Premier said:
Smack Tripper said:
Cant' believe they bit on a major league contract.
I'd be pretty shocked, and agents would be fired, if you ever see a #1 pick who doesn't get that again.
If there was an option to pay more in bonus to get off of that, it would be worth it.My issue would be, with a kid and PARTICULARLY a 17 year old kid, you are not serving him well by putting him on a major league deal, apart from potential financial reward. But you aren't aiding the long term development if you rush him to the majors. A polished college kid, 21-22 who's undergone the latter phases of physical maturity, fine, but not a high schooler.
 
Harper took his first BP at Nats Park. A couple reports:

Bryce Harper goes long at batting practiceWashington Nationals top pick Bryce Harper took batting practice today at Nationals Park before his introductory news conference, and in front of team executives, agent Scott Boras, players from both teams and a throng of media he promptly deposited a pitch into the third deck in right field.That display of power has been a rarity at Nationals Park. Only Adam Dunn has hit it to that area during a game this season, and Harper is only 17 years old.In his second round, Harper homered to right center approximately five rows deep, then belted three homers in a subsequent round. He hit another ball over the letter E in GEICO adorning the wall in center, and later sent one into the lower deck.Harper's best power output came in his final round of batting practice, when he homered on three straight pitches. The first landed in the left field bullpen, the next in the right field bullpen and the third to straightaway center field.
and
Bryce Harper, who will be formally introduced in a couple of hours, is taking his first round of batting practice at Nationals Park. And I've got to say, it's quite a show. The 17-year-old laid down a couple of token bunts to get started, then intentionally struck several line drives toward center and left-center fields. Then he finally attempted to pull the ball for the first time ... and reached the third deck down the right-field line. Yeah, that's right. Harper has hit about five other home runs during five rounds so far. Impressive.
 
Harper gave an interview on local radio today and said that he's a fan of the Cowboys, the Yankees, the Lakers, and Duke. Baseball's LeBron = confirmed.

link

 
Harper gave an interview on local radio today and said that he's a fan of the Cowboys, the Yankees, the Lakers, and Duke. Baseball's LeBron = confirmed.

link
Don't forget he mentions UT as his favorite college football team.This D-bag sports frontrunning has got to stop!!!

 
Harper is headed to the Arizona Fall League. He'll be a Taxi Squad member, meaning he can only play two days a week.

 
Harper is now 6-17 with a HR and two doubles in 4 games in Arizona.
It's obviously a small sample size, but when you consider the quality of opposition, it's absolutely remarkable. The AFL is one of the last stops before getting to the bigs for many guys, and he's at least two years younger than everyone else. I'm surprised he's not getting completely embarrassed on every AB. I might revise my ETA for him a bit. I was thinking cup of coffee in September 2012, opening day roster 2013, but now I'm wondering if he doesn't make it to the big leagues by early 2012.
 
Your Bryce Harper update:

Six games into his professional career, as a member of an Arizona Fall League "taxi squad" (where he is the youngest player in the league by two years), Harper's slash line is .348/.423/.988.

I'm not entirely sure what the organization does with this kid. How do you send a guy that can best the AFL to single-A ball? I think they have to start him at AA, and I have a feeling he moves quickly and is on the major league roster by the 2012 All-Star Break.

 
Your Bryce Harper update:Six games into his professional career, as a member of an Arizona Fall League "taxi squad" (where he is the youngest player in the league by two years), Harper's slash line is .348/.423/.988.I'm not entirely sure what the organization does with this kid. How do you send a guy that can best the AFL to single-A ball? I think they have to start him at AA, and I have a feeling he moves quickly and is on the major league roster by the 2012 All-Star Break.
While I'd love to see him reach DC as quickly as possible, I also selfishly want him to play A ball in Potomac so I can easily see him play some minor league ball next year.
 
Your Bryce Harper update:Six games into his professional career, as a member of an Arizona Fall League "taxi squad" (where he is the youngest player in the league by two years), Harper's slash line is .348/.423/.988.I'm not entirely sure what the organization does with this kid. How do you send a guy that can best the AFL to single-A ball? I think they have to start him at AA, and I have a feeling he moves quickly and is on the major league roster by the 2012 All-Star Break.
I am going to guess he comes up sometime in 2011. September roster expansion maybe? There is no way that Washington isn't going to capitalize on the hype as soon as possible. Plus, I just think the kid may be one of those once a generation talents that can play at this level right away.If he is going to hit 900 homers, it would help to get a head start. :lmao: (I retract this entire statement if they decide to keep him a catcher.)
 
Your Bryce Harper update:Six games into his professional career, as a member of an Arizona Fall League "taxi squad" (where he is the youngest player in the league by two years), Harper's slash line is .348/.423/.988.I'm not entirely sure what the organization does with this kid. How do you send a guy that can best the AFL to single-A ball? I think they have to start him at AA, and I have a feeling he moves quickly and is on the major league roster by the 2012 All-Star Break.
I am going to guess he comes up sometime in 2011. September roster expansion maybe? There is no way that Washington isn't going to capitalize on the hype as soon as possible. Plus, I just think the kid may be one of those once a generation talents that can play at this level right away.If he is going to hit 900 homers, it would help to get a head start. :thumbup: (I retract this entire statement if they decide to keep him a catcher.)
I had been critical of him, but I'll admit I'm excited to see what he can do, I think he's in DC by July.
 
2-4 with 2 triples and 2 RBI last night.
Forget a July callup. Tell me who he can't beat out to make the Nats 25-man roster out of Spring Training.:drinkingthesmearedeyeblackKoolAid:
Very impressive so far, but its a very small sample size and alot of AFL pitchers are gassed. Plus, he is going to need to play in the field, and I've heard no reports on how he's adjusting to the outfield.
 
dparker713 said:
Bogart said:
dgreen said:
2-4 with 2 triples and 2 RBI last night.
Forget a July callup. Tell me who he can't beat out to make the Nats 25-man roster out of Spring Training.:drinkingthesmearedeyeblackKoolAid:
Very impressive so far, but its a very small sample size and alot of AFL pitchers are gassed. Plus, he is going to need to play in the field, and I've heard no reports on how he's adjusting to the outfield.
Wait - I missed that. They are moving him to OF? Why?
 
dparker713 said:
Bogart said:
dgreen said:
2-4 with 2 triples and 2 RBI last night.
Forget a July callup. Tell me who he can't beat out to make the Nats 25-man roster out of Spring Training.:drinkingthesmearedeyeblackKoolAid:
Very impressive so far, but its a very small sample size and alot of AFL pitchers are gassed. Plus, he is going to need to play in the field, and I've heard no reports on how he's adjusting to the outfield.
Wait - I missed that. They are moving him to OF? Why?
It was agreed to when the Nats drafted him- they announced him as an outfielder when they announced the pick. It gets him to the majors quicker and keeps him healthy longer, which obviously benefits him tremendously and allows the Nats to burn a 40 man roster spot on him without wondering if he'll need several years in the minors honing his defense.I'm still torn on whether it's in the Nats' best interests. The Nats do have Wilson Ramos and Derek Norris, so they're set as far as young catching talent goes, and I like the idea of having him on the major league squad for most or all of Zimmerman's prime, but his value as a slugger goes up tremendously if he's a catcher with respectable defensive skills.
 
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2-4 with 2 triples and 2 RBI last night.
Forget a July callup. Tell me who he can't beat out to make the Nats 25-man roster out of Spring Training.:drinkingthesmearedeyeblackKoolAid:
Very impressive so far, but its a very small sample size and alot of AFL pitchers are gassed. Plus, he is going to need to play in the field, and I've heard no reports on how he's adjusting to the outfield.
I have not heard a full report on in the field either. Every now and again, I'll catch a tweet about a player testing Harper's arm, followed by "bad idea". Anyway, it sounds like he's definitely got the arm that you need for the OF (which is what the scouting reports all said), but I'm not sure how he's doing fielding-wise, etc.
 
2-4 with 2 triples and 2 RBI last night.
Forget a July callup. Tell me who he can't beat out to make the Nats 25-man roster out of Spring Training.:drinkingthesmearedeyeblackKoolAid:
Very impressive so far, but its a very small sample size and alot of AFL pitchers are gassed. Plus, he is going to need to play in the field, and I've heard no reports on how he's adjusting to the outfield.
Wait - I missed that. They are moving him to OF? Why?
If he's got the ability to play the OF(ie not a defensive liability or speed risk) then why not get 155 games a year out of him instead of 120-130? I heard he's got good speed too, you have to figure catching would compromise that.
 
2-4 with 2 triples and 2 RBI last night.
Forget a July callup. Tell me who he can't beat out to make the Nats 25-man roster out of Spring Training.:drinkingthesmearedeyeblackKoolAid:
Very impressive so far, but its a very small sample size and alot of AFL pitchers are gassed. Plus, he is going to need to play in the field, and I've heard no reports on how he's adjusting to the outfield.
Wait - I missed that. They are moving him to OF? Why?
If he's got the ability to play the OF(ie not a defensive liability or speed risk) then why not get 155 games a year out of him instead of 120-130? I heard he's got good speed too, you have to figure catching would compromise that.
He stole 20 bases in 24 attempts over a 68 game schedule in JuCo, and stole a base yesterday in the AFL.
 

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