The second tier of WR1s is very tightly packed this year - White, Austin, Marshall, DJax, Jennings, Colston, Wayne among others - and this news is enough for me to bump Rice to the bottom of that tier until we find out more.
Consider:
[*]Rosenhaus said this on Twitter:
Sidney does not anticipate that this injury will require surgery and he's hopeful that he will be fully healthy for the start of the season.
Sure sounds soft for an agent doesn't it? The declaration of no surgery is not 100% and the word "hopeful" is also not reassuring. [*]Rosenhaus also said the injury was lingering from the playoffs - umm, it's six months later... Rice is NOT a fast healer. His knee injury from 2008 wasn't completely healthy until part way through the offseason. He is not a receiver who relies on tight routes and being a big part of the game plan no matter what the game script is, he relies on his considerable physical gifts, so his production could be more sensitive to lingering/aggravated injuries...
[*]Even Rice's "no big deal" declaration included an admission that the docs said to rest it and that he hasn't been cutting and what-not, just running. Once again, this does not sound like something that is 100% right now, very close to the open of camp.
[*]Carter's comments seemed pretty vicious:
"I don't know. You have to ask him. I don't know what it's like to have one good year and then disappear. I don't know what it's like. That's on him. I really don't know. If I had that kind of impact on him he should have been here today." Carter was then asked if he was mad that Rice was attending camp. "I don't look mad do I?" he said. "I don't get mad about kids coming or not coming. ...Sidney is not here so I guarantee he's not getting no better today."
You have to wonder if they saw the rejection of the invitation as a dis? He used the ominous word "disappear" in his criticism, and it sure seems like there is more to this than just skipping Fitzgerald's camp[*]You also have the risk factor of Favre, who in a lot of ways made Rice's fantasy value last year by being willing to throw passes in Rice's vicinity and letting him do the rest. Jets fans can testify to how Favre's game can degrade when he is hurt.
I still think there is better chance than not (maybe even as much as 95%) that this all blows over and Rice is fine this year, still a fine low-end WR1, however, I do believe last year does represent his ceiling, and in a big group of second-tier WR1s that is tough to separate, this news is enough to ding his value down to the bottom of the group. I wouldn't even fault someone for passing on Rice to take Crabtree or Nicks a round later. While I don't want to blow this news out of proportion, when a group of fantasy players is packed so tightly, you basically have to blow some things out of proportion to achieve clarity on who to target and who to pass on.