ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I initially had the idea to start a thread in the Politics Forum with a title like, "Is Putin the new Hitler?" but ... how should I put this ... I wasn't so sure that would produce the highest level of discussion.
Anyway, I was an undergrad history major, and I realized what I was really curious about was how to fit Russia's recent actions in a historical context. Because no, I don't think Putin is Hitler, but I do think we're perhaps in the scariest moment since World War II, and among the many directions things could go from here, outcomes even worse than World War 2 are definitely within the realm of possibility. That's why I specifically referenced 1939, because at that point it was still unclear where Hitlerism would end up.
So let's take a look at the record: On the one hand, we once again see a dictatorial leader of a proud-but-recently-humiliated state with a long list of grievances. That leader represents the vanguard of a worldwide movement of authoritarianism posing a challenge to democratic governance. Once again, the world is emerging from a searing emotional calamity (the Great Depression in the '30s, Covid now). And after some early troublemaking in semi-disputed border areas with large members of their own ethnic group, the dictator has crossed a pretty bright line with a completely unprovoked invasion of a neighboring country.
As for the differences, obviously the biggest one is that Russia is a nuclear state, which dramatically raises the stakes of any war they're involved in. On the other hand, they are facing a world much more united against them. Instead of a thoroughly ineffective League of Nations, we now have the UN and NATO. Also, Hitler skillfully played his rivals off against each other, first striking the Munich deal with France and England to take over Czechoslovakia, then turning around and signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Stalin to take Poland. If they had all remained united, it would have been far harder for him to achieve the successes he did in the late '30s. Hopefully, the same will be true with Putin this year. Also, it's been remarked in recent days that, even if he conquers Ukraine, Putin will have a hard time installing a puppet regime with any credibility. While that was also true in Poland in '39, the Poles were by far the exception. In just about every other state the Nazis invaded -- up to and including France -- there were local leaders more than willing to be German quislings.
Anyway, I'm sure I could come up with more items for both lists, but the real question is, what do those similarities/differences tell us about how things are likely to play out going forward? If this really is another 1939, what do we need to do differently to ensure the next six years won't be as disastrous as the period of 1939-45 was? And if this situation is fundamentally different, how do we need to adapt to that?
Anyway, I was an undergrad history major, and I realized what I was really curious about was how to fit Russia's recent actions in a historical context. Because no, I don't think Putin is Hitler, but I do think we're perhaps in the scariest moment since World War II, and among the many directions things could go from here, outcomes even worse than World War 2 are definitely within the realm of possibility. That's why I specifically referenced 1939, because at that point it was still unclear where Hitlerism would end up.
So let's take a look at the record: On the one hand, we once again see a dictatorial leader of a proud-but-recently-humiliated state with a long list of grievances. That leader represents the vanguard of a worldwide movement of authoritarianism posing a challenge to democratic governance. Once again, the world is emerging from a searing emotional calamity (the Great Depression in the '30s, Covid now). And after some early troublemaking in semi-disputed border areas with large members of their own ethnic group, the dictator has crossed a pretty bright line with a completely unprovoked invasion of a neighboring country.
As for the differences, obviously the biggest one is that Russia is a nuclear state, which dramatically raises the stakes of any war they're involved in. On the other hand, they are facing a world much more united against them. Instead of a thoroughly ineffective League of Nations, we now have the UN and NATO. Also, Hitler skillfully played his rivals off against each other, first striking the Munich deal with France and England to take over Czechoslovakia, then turning around and signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Stalin to take Poland. If they had all remained united, it would have been far harder for him to achieve the successes he did in the late '30s. Hopefully, the same will be true with Putin this year. Also, it's been remarked in recent days that, even if he conquers Ukraine, Putin will have a hard time installing a puppet regime with any credibility. While that was also true in Poland in '39, the Poles were by far the exception. In just about every other state the Nazis invaded -- up to and including France -- there were local leaders more than willing to be German quislings.
Anyway, I'm sure I could come up with more items for both lists, but the real question is, what do those similarities/differences tell us about how things are likely to play out going forward? If this really is another 1939, what do we need to do differently to ensure the next six years won't be as disastrous as the period of 1939-45 was? And if this situation is fundamentally different, how do we need to adapt to that?