Sinkers and Floaters is (or will be) an annual article detailing guys that I think will exceed their expectations, and guys that will disappoint compared to their expectations. Sinkers are the guys that will disappoint, and floaters are the guys that will excel.
I've included a quick write-up with each of the players. I left out the hardcore stat crunching since, for most of these guys, I or someone else has already presented the numbers over the course of the offseason.
Please forgive any grammatical errors, as I was rushing to get this out before the season started so I didn't really have time to do much proof-reading. So, let's get on with it.
Sinkers
Matt Stafford
People on this site think I have an irrational hatred for Stafford. I don't hate Stafford, not in any way. I just don't think he is, or ever will be, a very good player. Five years ago he was a guy with a big arm but poor accuracy, touch, and decision making. He was seen as a guy who could develop those things to go along with his cannon of an arm, and become the complete package. Five years later, he's still that same guy. His decision making has improved slightly, but his accuracy and lack of touch are still the same as they've always been, and I haven't seen any indication of that changing.
People are willing to give Stafford a pass on his decision making since he's young as an NFL player, and I can live with that. However, I just haven't seen anything out of him, at any level, to make me think he's going to develope that skill. People have thought of Stafford as any "NFL guy" since he was in high school. I see the opposite, he just doesn't throw the ball like an NFL player should. He has one throwing style; gun it into an open receiver. He doesn't lay corner routes over the top. He does put fades up in the air. He has one throwing speed. Fast.
Knowshon Moreno
Moreno's value has dropped since the hamstring injury, but I was down on Moreno even before that. Moreno will be serviceable for you this year if he stays healthy, if only because he will get a lot of touches. That won't last though, as Moreno is just not that talented at the NFL level, and won't be a starter for long beyond this year.
To be clear on Moreno's talent, it's not that he's not a talented guy, it's just that his game doesn't translate to the NFL. He has the same body type and mindset as Cadillac Williams, and suffers the same drawbacks. That is, he runs like a guy who weighs 20lbs more than he actually does. Like Caddy, Moreno made a living off of breaking tackles and running through guys in college, despite his relatively small frame. At the college level, just wanting to run a guy over was enough. At the NFL level, he needs the bulk to back it up, and he just doesn't have it.
For Caddy, it led to a disappointing ypc and a slew of injuries. Moreno's career has started the same, and even if he doesn't suffer the tremendous injury setbacks that Caddy did, I do believe he will find himself out of a starting job in the future.
LeSean Mccoy
Another "talent over situation" in reverse guy here. McCoy is in a good spot, and should get a lot of touches, which will keep his value afloat for another year. I just don't think he's a very good running back though, and those guys don't stick around. I wasn't as impressed with McCoy as a prospect as most of this board yet, and he's certainly done nothing to change my mind. McCoy's biggest problem is that arm tackles slow him down too much, and the defense can then pile on. Despite how quick he looked at the college level, that doesn't seem to have translated to the pro's and he looks like a watered down version of Westbrook that is not NEARLY as good at breaking tackles as Westy was.
Steve Smith (NYG)
Eli Manning's 2009 season has "career year" written all over it. A team that loves to run and play defense had some injuries and was forced to pass more than usual, and Eli Manning heavily eclipsed his career averages. Let's not get carried away here folks, Eli Manning is a 3300/24 type guy, and I expect him to return to these levels next year. You take a guy like Steve Smith, who doesn't seem to be anything special talent-wise, then take 700 yards out of the passing game and add an up and coming WR in Hakeem Nicks that will take a much larger chunk than he had last year, and I'm not liking what's left over. Smith will get a smaller piece of a smaller pie this year, and I don't think he's talented enough to keep next year's looks away from Nicks. Like Manning, Smith's 2009 season has "career year" written all over it, and I would not be in the least bit surprised if he never comes close to putting up those numbers ever again.
Terrell Owens
Owens seems to have become a sexy pick ever since Carson Palmer targeted him a few times too many in the first preseason game. That was just Palmer trying to satisfy his new toy. Even if it wasn't, Owens has always made a living on big plays, and with Owens about to turn 37 and playing with a quarterback who looks like he's 47, that's not going to be as big a factor as it needs to be for Owens to make a big fantasy splash this year. The days of Palmer slinging the ball downfield are over, and whether it be his knee or something mental, he's become a game manager. A plodding offense is not going to produce two top fantasy receivers, and the downfield threat is the one that gets the shaft here. If you feel comfortable getting 900/5 out of the spot you're drafting Owens then you may be fine with him, but those expecting a TO resurgance will be disappointed.
Robert Meachem
Robert Meachem aka Donte Stallworth aka Devery Henderson aka Lance Moore. Every year we get a new guy who's ready to blow up as the #2 WR in New Orleans, and every year we are disappointed. The Saints love to spread the ball around, they've had success spreading the ball around, and they have no reason to change that. The style of offense they run will only support one stud receiver at a time and Colston is just more talented than all the other WRs on the roster, so he gets to be that guy. Don't fall victim to trying to find the consistent Saints WR2 that will never come.
Jahvid Best
I'm not particularly down on Best, at least not where his value was. However, it seems like after that 51 yard preseason run his value has all of the sudden vaulted up all the way to the second round in current drafts. That's a level of rookie hype that has only ever been matched by Adrian Peterson, and Peterson was considered the best RB prospect in most of our lifetimes. Best has been talked up all offseason on these boards, and coupled with a solid preseason has catapulted his value to insane levels.
Let's take a chill pill here. This is a Detroit team that averaged just over 3 ypc rushing last year, and while many people think Detroit is an offense on the rise, it seems like that's a story we've been hearing for the better part of the last half dozen years. I believe that Kevin Smith will still get a good chunk of the carries this year, and I am not as high on Best's talent as most of this board. I had him as my 4th rookie before the NFL draft and that hasn't changed for me.
5th round, sure, he's worth a shot. 2nd round though? Even being a "swing for the fences" guy myself, I think he's a longshot to even match that spot and has almost no chance of exceeding it.
Ray Rice
I'm not ready to call Ray Rice a bust, as I think he'll have a solid season. I do think that of the big 4, however, he is the most likely to be this year's guy that drops way down. My main reasoning for this is that I believe there's a good chance his receptions will drop significantly this year.
Historically, guys that aren't seen as "receiving backs" that have big receiving years have a tough time maintaining it. The good news for Rice is that many are able to maintain near those levels for another year, but not long after that. Guys who are purely receiving backs that have big receiving years have had no problem maintaining those numbers. However, when you look at guys who are supposed to be workhorse backs, that just happen to catch a bunch of passes one year, often do. Guys like Steven Jackson, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, and Ladainian Tomlinson all fall into this mold, and were all guys who had 70-100 receptions and within a couple years were lucky to be pulling in 35 per year.
Rice has never been viewed as a "receiving back". In fact, he was pulled on 3rd downs for much much of his college career. He is a workhorse back who happened to fall into a spot where lots of passes were dumped off to the running back last year. Rice looks just like these other guys I mentioned above, and couple that with Baltimore bringing in a couple big name receivers (Boldin and Housh), and Flacco maturing a bit more (which usually leads to less running back dumpoffs) leaves the writing on the wall here.
The good news is that Cam Cameron is still his offensive coordinator, and he does love to use the heck out of his running backs.
Floaters
Ryan Matthews
It's not exactly going out on a limb to say that Ryan Matthews is going to have a good year. Lots of people believe that. However, I think it will go beyond just a "good year" this season for Matthews. Matthews will finish as a top 10 running back this year, and by this time next year he will be a consensus top 5 overall pick in dynasty leagues.
Matthews is a talented every down back, playing for a coach that loves every down backs, in a league that doesn't have many every down backs. People questioned Matthews ability, but watching him play, I don't see anything to question. Further, he's looked great in the preseason, showing good burst, strength, and lateral agility. San Diego will have plenty of scoring opportunities this year and Vincent Jackson being virtually gone means that's one less redzone threat to take away from Matthews.
The only concern for Matthews is some rumors that Tolbert might be used as a goaline back this year. However, Matthews is a good goaline runner and Norv has had a long career of not using goaline backs, so I don't think it's going to happen.
Ahmad Bradshaw
Ahmad Bradshaw is the next big thing in fantasy football. From a talent perspective, I feel like Bradshaw may be the most underrated skill position player in the league. People are aware that Bradshaw has great lateral agility and can make some nasty cuts, but many don't realize how strong he is. He has that rare ability not just to break tackles, but to run through arm tackles without being slowed down, which is one of the keys to breaking off big runs. Breaking tackles is all well and good, but if you have to slow down enough for six other defenders to pile on, it's no big deal.
Brandon Jacobs is still around, and will hold Bradshaw's value down in the short term. Whether it be part of the way through this year or next year though, when Bradshaw gets the job to himself, he's going to be huge. He can be had in the 7th-9th rounds in most leagues, and that's a bargain for a guy that is a special talent and could blow up and win you a championship on his own.
Kevin Kolb
People have really soured on Kolb after a disappointing preseason. Some of the concerns are merited, as the middle of that offensive line has just looked horrific, which is a nightmare for any QB. I believe Andy Reid will get it sorted out though, and with any time to throw, Kolb is going to be huge.
Aaron Rodgers seems to have actually lowered Kolb's value rather than raised it, since many people are dismissing Kolb as being just some guy that people are hoping will be the next Aaron Rodgers. With or without Aaron Rodgers, Kevin Kolb is a good quarterback, with good weapons. In his chances to show it on the field, he has produced like a fantasy monster. Many have dismissed these efforts as coming against weak defenses, but remember that one of them was against the Saints last year, and it was early on last year when the Saints defense was playing very well.
Lee Evans
Lee Evans is the new Eric Moulds, rotating good seasons and bad seasons every other year. This year, the good season is on serve.
In all seriousness though, Evans was in a really bad spot last year. He was a deep threat playing in an offensive scheme that refused to throw the ball deep. With both Owens and the conservative Jauron out of town, we'll again get to see some of those big plays out of Evans that the talented receiver is capable of. I would be very surprised if Evans does not eclipse 1000 yards this year, and likely have at least a half dozen TDs to go along with it. In the 10th round and beyond, where he is commonly dropping too, that is great value.
Steve Smith (Car)
With the arm issues and unproven QB, Steve Smith's value has plummeted this offseason. Let's really look at this though. Smith has played his entire career with bad or mediocre QBs. Just two years ago, he put up an astounding 1421 yards in 14 games on a team that only had 3200 yards passing for the entire season.
Smith had a down year last year because Delhomme went from being a bad QB in 2008 to being a putridly awful QB in 2009. No matter how bad Moore is in 2010, he cannot be worse, or even as bad, as Delhomme was circa 2009.
Moore started four games with Smith at the end of last season and in those games Smith had 19 catches for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over a full season that's 76 catches for 1348 yards and 12 touchdowns, and honestly other than maybe the touchdowns, I don't see those as out of reach for Smith in 2010. Given that he's now going in the mid to late 3rd round outside the top 10 among wide receivers, he's a great play.
Beanie Wells
Beanie's value has plummeted with the preseason carry distribution and with the knee tweak in the last preseason game. You can now get him in the 6th round and beyond, which is absurd for a guy with his ability.
Beanie Wells has man among boys disease. Last season, he just looked like a monster running the ball. The thing that surprised me most about him is his burst, which is phenomenal for a guy his size.
Hightower is still in town, and that won't help Wells. However things have changed in Arizona. It was ok to have Hightower in there plodding along for three yards when Kurt Warner was leading efficient drives downfield. Warner is gone though, and with Arizona's QB woes they need guys who can make things happen on their own. Beanie is one of those guys, and Hightower is not.
Hightower's short yardage and receiving abilities are overrated (this has been covered many times on this board so I won't repeat it here), and I don't believe him to be superior to Beanie in either. In fact, I think Beanie is going to surprise people with the number of receiving yards he puts up this year. Arizona doesn't ask their running backs to run exotic routes, and Beanie is much more dangerous after the ball gets into his hands than Hightower is.
People that stick with Beanie are going to be rewarded.
Steven Jackson
I've always been high on Sjax and I was finally ready to move him off this list. Then his ADP just kept dropping....and dropping....and dropping, to the point where now in some leagues you can get him in the late 2nd or even 3rd round. That's crazy for a guy who, when healthy, is the safest runner in fantasy football.
If people want to drop Jackson because they're worried about his back, that's fine, I can respect that. Personally, I don't think it will be an issue as it should be even healthier than it was last year (when he had his best ypc as a starter for his career) after the surgery, but like I said, if it scares people I can live with it. What I don't get, however, is people who are staying away from Jackson because he's on a bad team. To those people, I ask, where have you been for the last three years? Jackson has been on not only the worst offense in football, but some of the worst offenses of the current decade, and still produced as a top running back every year. Jackson finished 10th last year despite missing a game and only scoring 4 TDs on a horrible offense. He finished top 5 in ppg the year before that on another horrible offense. The offense can't get any worse, if Jackson plays his numbers can only go up, and he's one of the few every down backs left.
These guys that put up high yardage numbers and low TD totals are an anomaly, and are great guys to target in the following year. We saw it with Thomas Jones 2007-2008 and we'll see it with Steven Jackson this year. Guys just don't put up 1800yds with only 4 TDs often, and certainly not twice in a row. People can try and blame it on the bad offense, but even on bad offenses it just doesn't happen. The StL offense was just as bad in 2008 and 2007 and Jackson had 8 TDs in 12 games in 2008, and 6 TDs through 12 games in 2007.
When Jackson plays, he's the safest guy in the league because he's the ONLY one that's proven he can still produce top 10 numbers on a horrific team. Meanwhile, if the StL offense improves to even mediocre or just "bad", Jackson could blow up like we saw him do the last time StL had a mediocre offense. Other running backs depend on their situation being maintained or getting better. Jackson can produce in any situation.
Adrian Peterson
Ok, so it's a bit silly to have a guy on this list that is already ranked as the consensus #2 FF player. I mean, how can he really outplay that ADP, right?
I'm including Peterson on this list for two reasons. The first is this bizarre idea out there that Peterson's poor finish last year means that his workload is already catching up to him and he is "declining" at the ripe old age of 25. Fantasy football stats don't work in a bell curve, and great players will see their numbers go up and down, and go through "slumps" much like a baseball player would. I'll take this opportunity to point out that Ladainian Tomlinson suffered an almost identical (if not worse) finish to one of his seasons. The next season he put up 2300 total yards and set the NFL record for touchdowns.
The second reason I've included Peterson in this list is because I believe he'll finish as the #1 fantasy runner this year, and could be primed for one of those monster record setting seasons. Peterson's number of big runs were way down last year, largely because of horrific offensive line play. With some time to gel, if the line can be even servicable this year, Peterson can combine the huge runs he had in his first two seasons with the sheer scoring opportunity he had last year, and put up a fantasy season for the ages. Let's also remember that Chester Taylor accounted for 400 yards receiving last year and he's gone now, with no one brought in to replace him. Chester Taylor was one thing, as he was a proven, solid NFL running back. But does anyone really think Minnesota is going to consistently sit Peterson on third downs for Albert Young? I'm not seeing it. Gerhart will get some work when Peterson needs a blow, and other than that it will be All Day all day.
Percy Harvin
Sidney Rice is out for half the year and Favre is returning. Good news for Bernard Berrian? Perhaps, but it's great news for Percy Harvin. Harvin was underrated as a receiver by many on this board from day one. Many described him as an athlete, a running back, and a guy who was, at best, raw at wide receiver. All of these were wrong, as Harvin had the second best pure wide receiver skills of his draft class (behind only Crabtree) from day one. Keep in mind I'm talking pure wide receiver skills here, even if you took all his athletic ability away. Percy Harvin runs good routes, has exceptional hands, and attacks the ball in the air as well as anyone for his size, which is my favorite thing to see out of a wide receiver.
Pierre Garcon
Rumors of Reggie Wayne's demise early in this offseason were greatly exaggerated, but that doesn't mean there's not still room for Garcon to have a big year as well. Peyton has fed multiple top fantasy wide receivers plenty of times before and his trust in Garcon grew quickly as last season went on. It went away a bit after a drop by Garcon early in the Super Bowl, but Peyton is smart enough not to hold that one play against him this far in the future. Garcon is a natural fit in Indy's timing offense, and with the #2 spot all but locked up in Indy this looks to be a true breakout year for Garcon, all at the cost of a 5th-7th round pick. Numbers finishing around 1100/8 shouldn't be much of a stretch for Garcon in 2010.
Miles Austin
Miles Austin, whom you may beging calling Austin Miles after a few concussions, is not a guy who I expect to necessarily outperform his ADP (which is already pretty high) so much as he is a guy I expect to live up to it, amongst many doubters. The big questionmark with Austin is whether or not he's a one year wonder. To me, there's no question that Austin is not. When I watch Austin play, I see a receiver, not an athlete. I find Austin to be a similar type of player to Larry Fitzgerald. Not particularly superior than his peers athletically, but he's just a pure-bread football player. He reaches out and snatches the ball with ease, and he attacks the ball in the air. The guys who have a single studly season based purely on their athletic ability and don't seem to have natural hands or football skills are the guys I fear will end up as one year wonders. The guys like Braylon Edwards and Peerless Price. Austin does not fall into that category for me, and his pure football talent leaves me not only not finding him to be a risky play, but to actually be one of the safest plays at WR this year. Outside of Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne, I'm not sure there's another receiver that I am more sure will not be a bust in 2010.
Jason Witten
Jason Witten is another example of a guy with huge opportunity and low TDs in year X having great value in year X + 1. Witten had 94 catches for 1030 yards last year, but can currently be had as the 4th or 5th TE off the board because he had only 2 TDs. That is not repeatable, and I expect that number to settle back in somewhere around 6-8 TDs this year given the same number of receptions and yards, which will easily put him into contention to finish as TE1.
Some are worried about the addition of Dez Bryant, but that won't be a major factor for Witten until at least next year, and even then I don't expect it to impact Witten's numbers too much.
CJ Spiller
Fred Jackson is hurt, and **** Jauron is gone. While Spiller's situation isn't ideal, it looks like it will at least be a little better than we thought. Lynch's role still remains to be seen, but I really believe that Spiller will be option 1 for Buffalo this year, and being the best receiver of the group certainly won't hurt on a team that figures to be trailing a lot, and I love Spiller from a talent standpoint. People question his ability to run between the tackles, but I don't see it.
Tim Tebow
A couple "down the road" picks here, the first being Mr. Tebow. I'm a Gator homer, so let me get that out of the way first, and you can take this with a grain of salt. While some of the criticism Tebow gets is deserved, much of the criticism he's received on these boards was just hyperbole. "He's never thrown an NFL route". "He has horrible accuracy". "He has a weak arm". Poppy-####. People need to go back and watch Tebow play in 2007, back before the uber conservative Steve Addazio came to town and decided that Florida was just going to run up the middle every play. Tebow has thrown every NFL route, timing routes, etc. Florida's offense was so incredible in 2007 because of Tebow's passing ability, not his running ability.
Anyhow, Tebow put all the physical doubts aside this preseason. To be quite frank, he threw a pretty ball in his time in there. The accuracy was good, and he put to rest the arm strength concerns when he slung that pass while rolling out, across his body, 35 yards downfield on an absolutely frozen rope and hit his receiver right in stride. Tebow looked much better in those few games than I ever thought he would in the NFL. And I don't buy this "his long delivery will make him miss his windows" stuff. That's just pure, made-up theorycraft like we see all so often on these boards.
Physical issues aside, the jury is still out on Tebow for the one thing that I doubted him most about coming into the NFL....his reads. In those preseason games he was playing against vanilla defenses with little pressure. I believe that when Tebow finally gets in there in a real game, defensive coordinators are going to confuse the heck out of him with all kinds of exotic blitzes that he's just not going to be able to figure out. There will be growing pains, but I believe he'll get it corrected in time and become a solid NFL QB. Certainly well beyond the "yeah he'd make a good NFL player.......as a tight end LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL" crowd that thinks they're so clever.
Jimmy Clausen
When I watch Jimmy Clausen play I see everything that people wanted Matt Stafford to be. He's got the big arm, but unlike Stafford he knows when he has to take a little off the ball and put some touch on it. He's also got that little thing we like to call accuracy, and he's also much better at handling pressure and getting the ball out quickly than Stafford has ever been. Stafford has shown some improvement in this area, but he's still behind Clausen, who hasn't even played a down in the NFL.
It pains me to say that I think Clausen will be a good NFL player, because as a Gator I loathe the entire Clausen line. And let's be honest here, the guy just looks like a jerk.
And on that note (calling a guy a jerk for no reason other than the way he looks), we'll wrap this thing up...
