Situational choices in redrafts. 1st up RBs after the top5 (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

You have a draft slot outside of the top5. Perhaps in the middle to later part of the 1st and you want to try and secure 1 RB. I'm a fan of WR/WR but that's not the topic here. You must choose one of these 5 as they are currently according to ADP the next 5 RBs off the board after ADP, CJ, MJD, RR, and Gore.

What I am going to do with several threads over the next week is try and gauge what the SP is thinking when faced with a real situational choice. So maybe Steven Jackson will be the run away pick in this group, maybe he won't.

What says you?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let me clarify just a bit...this would be if you have a pick in the middle to late 1st, but if you think you can grab one of these guys on the way back in the 2nd and you are more comfortable with let's say Mendy in the early 2nd over SJax at the 1.07/1.08 that's fine.

Mid to late 1st thru early 2nd round we'll say...you have a pick somewhere in there and you want one of these RBs.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

ppr - SJAX -

nonppr - Turner

 

[rizzler]

ppr- turner

non ppr - turner

conclusion: im high on turner. his rushing yds and TD production will override his severe lack of receptions (IMO of course)

 

[footballman_696969]

ppr - SJAX - nonppr - Turner

 

[Instinctive]

Steven Jackson should definitely be a runaway. Here's why:

He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction for one team. And all of that is true with him missing an average of 2 games per year and playing for an offense that has been historically bad the last 2-3 years.

He averages almost 100 yards per game...in rushing alone. He averages over 100 ypg including receiving yards, even if you decide to toss out the monster 2006 season from your analysis.

So, he's one of the top players when he misses games, and he's a grand slam when he doesn't. What's not to like?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Steven Jackson should definitely be a runaway. Here's why:He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction for one team. And all of that is true with him missing an average of 2 games per year and playing for an offense that has been historically bad the last 2-3 years.He averages almost 100 yards per game...in rushing alone. He averages over 100 ypg including receiving yards, even if you decide to toss out the monster 2006 season from your analysis.So, he's one of the top players when he misses games, and he's a grand slam when he doesn't. What's not to like?

And he's missed a boatload of time and owners have been crying in the SP for the past 2-3 years about him. He was a bust in 2007 when his ADp was like 1.02/1.03. Just saying but I don't want this to turn into the SJax thread. Great post, you provided plenty of info but many owners myself included are not comfortable with SJax nor his offense right now.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So it might be a 2 horse race in PPR...non PPR looks like Turner, very little comfortability with Mendy and Greene in the early 2nd as an alternative.

DWill has been going in the 2nd in a lot of redrafts so he's a solid choice for owners that don't get a top5 pick it appears.

See how the votes progress thru the morning and afternoon. Appreciate everyone taking the time to vote.

 

[Instinctive]

Steven Jackson should definitely be a runaway. Here's why:He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction for one team. And all of that is true with him missing an average of 2 games per year and playing for an offense that has been historically bad the last 2-3 years.He averages almost 100 yards per game...in rushing alone. He averages over 100 ypg including receiving yards, even if you decide to toss out the monster 2006 season from your analysis.So, he's one of the top players when he misses games, and he's a grand slam when he doesn't. What's not to like?

And he's missed a boatload of time and owners have been crying in the SP for the past 2-3 years about him. He was a bust in 2007 when his ADp was like 1.02/1.03. Just saying but I don't want this to turn into the SJax thread. Great post, you provided plenty of info but many owners myself included are not comfortable with SJax nor his offense right now.

What's uncomfortable though? He averages 2 missed games a year, and he's still always been a RB1. His offense has been historically bad---it's practically impossible to score under 200 points, but they did it last year---and he's still a RB1 who finished SECOND in the NFL in total rushing. His TDs were the lowest they've ever been, which woul indicate and anomaly. Recent rookie OLineman have gathered an offseason and experience. His situation can't possibly get worse, can it? What's not to like? I got burned at 1.02 in 2007 due to injury so I should never take him again?ETA: that said, I like Turner a lot too, PPR and nonPPR. He's easily 2nd for me in PPR, and I'd consider it a tie in nonPPR.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I voted DeAngelo in both. I feel he has the highest floor of any of these guys, with a still very good chance of ripping off a monster season. Turner and SJax scare me because of injury concerns, and I am not really sold on the talent level of Greene and Mendenhall, although they are both in good situations.

When it comes to my 1st and 2nd round picks I really value players with what I think is a low bust risk.

 

[-jb-]

I would either go Moss/AJ + Williams, or Turner + BWRA.

Standard scoring.

 

[fightingillini]

I voted DeAngelo in both. I feel he has the highest floor of any of these guys, with a still very good chance of ripping off a monster season. Turner and SJax scare me because of injury concerns, and I am not really sold on the talent level of Greene and Mendenhall, although they are both in good situations. When it comes to my 1st and 2nd round picks I really value players with what I think is a low bust risk.

Not sure why you think DeAngelo has a lower floor than Turner. Turner had a high ankle sprain last year, not a chronic injury. Turner IMO if healthy is a great bet for 1500 rushing yards and 14-16 TDs. He's my pick in a nonPPR league. DeAngelo has to share the ball with Stewart, and we all saw how good Stewart was last year in a lead dog role. Monster season only comes with an injury to Stewart. Turner is going to get his carries.....at least 20 a game and get all the goalline love.In a PPR league, it's a tougher call. I wouldn't be in this spot since I would take AJ, but we're talking RBs here. I would take SJax and not be too happy about it. At least Jackson is going to catch 40-60 passes, so that helps him negate the lower TD totals that he will have.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What's uncomfortable though? He averages 2 missed games a year, and he's still always been a RB1. His offense has been historically bad---it's practically impossible to score under 200 points, but they did it last year---and he's still a RB1 who finished SECOND in the NFL in total rushing. His TDs were the lowest they've ever been, which woul indicate and anomaly. Recent rookie OLineman have gathered an offseason and experience. His situation can't possibly get worse, can it? What's not to like? I got burned at 1.02 in 2007 due to injury so I should never take him again?

ETA: that said, I like Turner a lot too, PPR and nonPPR. He's easily 2nd for me in PPR, and I'd consider it a tie in nonPPR.

Your definition of that spot and mine are different. I have talked with Jeff Tefertiller about this and we conclude that there really are not 12 RB1 spots even in a 12 team league. The weeks you miss out on SJax which in 2007 was 4 games and he had a very high ADP, doubt a lot of owners felt they need another RB before the 4th or 5th round, this further compounds the problem as during those weeks you are now marching out an RB2 at best into your RB1 spot. I know injuries are a part of the game but please just hear me out and I'm not trying to stop you or anyone from taking SJax, please take him.In 2008 he missed weeks 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12...it's not 2 games a year as you would like to believe. Let's just be honest about what has happened.

I look at SJax as an RB1 when he actually plays but I feel he is a major down step from the true RB1 types like CJ, ADP, MJD, Rice, and even Gore perhaps.

Look at last year...Johnson avg 24 ppg, then there is a tier of 4 guys Rice, MJD, Gore, and ADP that are right at 20 ppg. You are going to be facing these guys week in and week out form the other owners in your league. SJax was an RB1 last year, but barely at 16 PPG and he missed a little time on top of that.

Matt Forte was 12th in total points for RBs last year in PPR...do you consider him an RB1? I don't. How about Ryan Grant, Ricky Williams, and Joseph Addai?

Please don't take offense to anything I posted, just trying to show the flip side of the coin.

This year I see maybe 7-8 RB1 types.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I would either go Moss/AJ + Williams, or Turner + BWRA.Standard scoring.

Solid

 

[baconisgood]

Went S jax/Turner.

Jackson's 3.3 catches per game over his career make this one an obvious choice for 1 pt ppr leagues. The past 3 years he has been at 3.2, 3.3 and 3.4 receptions per game and he has 2006 5.6 rpg upside. The other players on the list are starting out 10-30 yards per game deficit based on their reception totals- and given the fact that Sjax outproduces all of them in total yards you are demanding a high TD total to catch up.

 

[-jb-]

What's uncomfortable though? He averages 2 missed games a year, and he's still always been a RB1. His offense has been historically bad---it's practically impossible to score under 200 points, but they did it last year---and he's still a RB1 who finished SECOND in the NFL in total rushing. His TDs were the lowest they've ever been, which woul indicate and anomaly. Recent rookie OLineman have gathered an offseason and experience. His situation can't possibly get worse, can it? What's not to like? I got burned at 1.02 in 2007 due to injury so I should never take him again?

ETA: that said, I like Turner a lot too, PPR and nonPPR. He's easily 2nd for me in PPR, and I'd consider it a tie in nonPPR.

Your definition of that spot and mine are different. I have talked with Jeff Tefertiller about this and we conclude that there really are not 12 RB1 spots even in a 12 team league. The weeks you miss out on SJax which in 2007 was 4 games and he had a very high ADP, doubt a lot of owners felt they need another RB before the 4th or 5th round, this further compounds the problem as during those weeks you are now marching out an RB2 at best into your RB1 spot. I know injuries are a part of the game but please just hear me out and I'm not trying to stop you or anyone from taking SJax, please take him.In 2008 he missed weeks 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12...it's not 2 games a year as you would like to believe. Let's just be honest about what has happened.

I look at SJax as an RB1 when he actually plays but I feel he is a major down step from the true RB1 types like CJ, ADP, MJD, Rice, and even Gore perhaps.

Look at last year...Johnson avg 24 ppg, then there is a tier of 4 guys Rice, MJD, Gore, and ADP that are right at 20 ppg. You are going to be facing these guys week in and week out form the other owners in your league. SJax was an RB1 last year, but barely at 16 PPG and he missed a little time on top of that.

Matt Forte was 12th in total points for RBs last year in PPR...do you consider him an RB1? I don't. How about Ryan Grant, Ricky Williams, and Joseph Addai?

Please don't take offense to anything I posted, just trying to show the flip side of the coin.

This year I see maybe 7-8 RB1 types.

I'm going to contest this, MoP. In fact, I think you're raising an excellent point regarding perceived value and actual value. Grant, Williams and Addai WERE RB1s last year. Not sexy, but top 12 nonetheless. With Jackson, his downside is when he goes out of a single game with an injury. That will cost you, because you can't fill in behind him (non-best ball). However, in the games that he's declared out of prior to k/o, then you get to insert another player. Yes, in all likelihood, they won't be as good (although I had Peterson the year Jackson went down - patsselfonback), but they can still produce points. What happens when you combine the points of Jackson and whoever you used to fill his absence with? How does that compare to the guys that didn't miss time?Quick exercise...2008 style:

Jackson - 1042/379/8 = 190 points

Let's arbitrarily pick Jackson's fill-in - Leon Washington (RB30 that year). During the span that Jackson was out, 8-12, Washington scored 39 points. Nothing flashy. Jackson's 190 + Washington's 39 = 229 points. That would have made him RB6. The RBs that finished 7-12 were:

Tomlinson (16)

Portis (16)

Drew (16)

Westbrook (14)

Johnson (16)

Jacobs (13)

So, you could do the same exercise for Westbrook and Jacobs, but for a smaller amount of games. Even if they moved up, that would make Jackson + Washington no worse than RB8.

All that said, I like Turner before Jackson.

 

[Chaka]

Steven Jackson should definitely be a runaway. Here's why:He has been a RB1 (top 12) for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL who can claim that. He has rushed for over 1000 yards for EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 5 years. He is literally the only player in the NFL to hold that distinction for one team. And all of that is true with him missing an average of 2 games per year and playing for an offense that has been historically bad the last 2-3 years.He averages almost 100 yards per game...in rushing alone. He averages over 100 ypg including receiving yards, even if you decide to toss out the monster 2006 season from your analysis.So, he's one of the top players when he misses games, and he's a grand slam when he doesn't. What's not to like?

And he's missed a boatload of time and owners have been crying in the SP for the past 2-3 years about him. He was a bust in 2007 when his ADp was like 1.02/1.03. Just saying but I don't want this to turn into the SJax thread. Great post, you provided plenty of info but many owners myself included are not comfortable with SJax nor his offense right now.

What's uncomfortable though? He averages 2 missed games a year, and he's still always been a RB1. His offense has been historically bad---it's practically impossible to score under 200 points, but they did it last year---and he's still a RB1 who finished SECOND in the NFL in total rushing. His TDs were the lowest they've ever been, which woul indicate and anomaly. Recent rookie OLineman have gathered an offseason and experience. His situation can't possibly get worse, can it? What's not to like? I got burned at 1.02 in 2007 due to injury so I should never take him again?ETA: that said, I like Turner a lot too, PPR and nonPPR. He's easily 2nd for me in PPR, and I'd consider it a tie in nonPPR.

Jackson is without question a premier talent at RB and is definitely the pick here in a PPR league but non-PPR leagues require rushing TDs so I have trouble going with Jackson in non-PPR formats.The problem is with his team. The Rams have scored 17 rushing TDs over the last three seasons (6 fewer than any team). And Jackson averages only six total TDs/season over the last three years. Unless you think Feely/Bradford/Null is better than Bulger/Boller/Null (and I do not) their QB play is going to be worse this year so it is difficult to imagine their TD production improving. And last year Jackson barely finished as RB#12 scoring only 4 total TDs.

 

[Herm23]

What's uncomfortable though? He averages 2 missed games a year, and he's still always been a RB1. His offense has been historically bad---it's practically impossible to score under 200 points, but they did it last year---and he's still a RB1 who finished SECOND in the NFL in total rushing. His TDs were the lowest they've ever been, which woul indicate and anomaly. Recent rookie OLineman have gathered an offseason and experience. His situation can't possibly get worse, can it? What's not to like? I got burned at 1.02 in 2007 due to injury so I should never take him again?

ETA: that said, I like Turner a lot too, PPR and nonPPR. He's easily 2nd for me in PPR, and I'd consider it a tie in nonPPR.

Your definition of that spot and mine are different. I have talked with Jeff Tefertiller about this and we conclude that there really are not 12 RB1 spots even in a 12 team league. The weeks you miss out on SJax which in 2007 was 4 games and he had a very high ADP, doubt a lot of owners felt they need another RB before the 4th or 5th round, this further compounds the problem as during those weeks you are now marching out an RB2 at best into your RB1 spot. I know injuries are a part of the game but please just hear me out and I'm not trying to stop you or anyone from taking SJax, please take him.In 2008 he missed weeks 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12...it's not 2 games a year as you would like to believe. Let's just be honest about what has happened.

I look at SJax as an RB1 when he actually plays but I feel he is a major down step from the true RB1 types like CJ, ADP, MJD, Rice, and even Gore perhaps.

Look at last year...Johnson avg 24 ppg, then there is a tier of 4 guys Rice, MJD, Gore, and ADP that are right at 20 ppg. You are going to be facing these guys week in and week out form the other owners in your league. SJax was an RB1 last year, but barely at 16 PPG and he missed a little time on top of that.

Matt Forte was 12th in total points for RBs last year in PPR...do you consider him an RB1? I don't. How about Ryan Grant, Ricky Williams, and Joseph Addai?

Please don't take offense to anything I posted, just trying to show the flip side of the coin.

This year I see maybe 7-8 RB1 types.

I'm going to contest this, MoP. In fact, I think you're raising an excellent point regarding perceived value and actual value. Grant, Williams and Addai WERE RB1s last year. Not sexy, but top 12 nonetheless. With Jackson, his downside is when he goes out of a single game with an injury. That will cost you, because you can't fill in behind him (non-best ball). However, in the games that he's declared out of prior to k/o, then you get to insert another player. Yes, in all likelihood, they won't be as good (although I had Peterson the year Jackson went down - patsselfonback), but they can still produce points. What happens when you combine the points of Jackson and whoever you used to fill his absence with? How does that compare to the guys that didn't miss time?Quick exercise...2008 style:

Jackson - 1042/379/8 = 190 points

Let's arbitrarily pick Jackson's fill-in - Leon Washington (RB30 that year). During the span that Jackson was out, 8-12, Washington scored 39 points. Nothing flashy. Jackson's 190 + Washington's 39 = 229 points. That would have made him RB6. The RBs that finished 7-12 were:

Tomlinson (16)

Portis (16)

Drew (16)

Westbrook (14)

Johnson (16)

Jacobs (13)

So, you could do the same exercise for Westbrook and Jacobs, but for a smaller amount of games. Even if they moved up, that would make Jackson + Washington no worse than RB8.

All that said, I like Turner before Jackson.

This is an EXCELLENT post! The thing that every single detractor of Steven Jackson seems to miss is that just because he misses a game does NOT mean you automatically get 0 points out of his spot in the lineup. What you actually get is the points that your replacement player scores. While this most likely means you are certainly taking a hit and won't have the same potential, it is not even CLOSE to being as bad as having an automatic 0, as most people seem to infer occurs every time Jackson misses a game. What is the difference between having 13 weeks of Jackson performing and netting you solid, consistent, fairly high level production and 3 weeks of one of your bench players netting you medicore production and a player like Mendenhall or Green or DeAngelo Williams or Turner? Sure those guys may all play 16 games, but none of them are the sure bets week in and week out that Jackson is and their down weeks are really nothing better than the weeks you are replacing Jackson in your lineup. This means its basically a wash, only Steven Jackson gives you the great value of knowing you are going to get points every single week because he is a PPR and yardage monster and does not rely on touchdowns for any of his value, really.Taking this into consideration (and crediting Jackson's spot in the lineup with whatever mediocre points his replacement would score during any game he misses...lets say 2-3 games per year), he is EASILY a top 8 RB and without question a very solid RB1, and its not close. His essentially guaranteed production while in the lineup MORE than makes up for the dip in points you would be forced to take for the 2-3 games he is injured. On top of that, the upside if he manages to stay healthy for a full season and can find a way to score more than 4 times is immense.

 

[TeamSnooki]

I agree with the SJax-PPR & Turner-non-PPR crowd.

FWIW, I have Mendenhall 2nd (7th RB overall) in each ranking. He has enough catches to pass Turner in PPR, but not enough to not be passed by SJax.

 

[fightingillini]

What's uncomfortable though? He averages 2 missed games a year, and he's still always been a RB1. His offense has been historically bad---it's practically impossible to score under 200 points, but they did it last year---and he's still a RB1 who finished SECOND in the NFL in total rushing. His TDs were the lowest they've ever been, which woul indicate and anomaly. Recent rookie OLineman have gathered an offseason and experience. His situation can't possibly get worse, can it? What's not to like? I got burned at 1.02 in 2007 due to injury so I should never take him again?

ETA: that said, I like Turner a lot too, PPR and nonPPR. He's easily 2nd for me in PPR, and I'd consider it a tie in nonPPR.

Your definition of that spot and mine are different. I have talked with Jeff Tefertiller about this and we conclude that there really are not 12 RB1 spots even in a 12 team league. The weeks you miss out on SJax which in 2007 was 4 games and he had a very high ADP, doubt a lot of owners felt they need another RB before the 4th or 5th round, this further compounds the problem as during those weeks you are now marching out an RB2 at best into your RB1 spot. I know injuries are a part of the game but please just hear me out and I'm not trying to stop you or anyone from taking SJax, please take him.In 2008 he missed weeks 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12...it's not 2 games a year as you would like to believe. Let's just be honest about what has happened.

I look at SJax as an RB1 when he actually plays but I feel he is a major down step from the true RB1 types like CJ, ADP, MJD, Rice, and even Gore perhaps.

Look at last year...Johnson avg 24 ppg, then there is a tier of 4 guys Rice, MJD, Gore, and ADP that are right at 20 ppg. You are going to be facing these guys week in and week out form the other owners in your league. SJax was an RB1 last year, but barely at 16 PPG and he missed a little time on top of that.

Matt Forte was 12th in total points for RBs last year in PPR...do you consider him an RB1? I don't. How about Ryan Grant, Ricky Williams, and Joseph Addai?

Please don't take offense to anything I posted, just trying to show the flip side of the coin.

This year I see maybe 7-8 RB1 types.

I'm going to contest this, MoP. In fact, I think you're raising an excellent point regarding perceived value and actual value. Grant, Williams and Addai WERE RB1s last year. Not sexy, but top 12 nonetheless. With Jackson, his downside is when he goes out of a single game with an injury. That will cost you, because you can't fill in behind him (non-best ball). However, in the games that he's declared out of prior to k/o, then you get to insert another player. Yes, in all likelihood, they won't be as good (although I had Peterson the year Jackson went down - patsselfonback), but they can still produce points. What happens when you combine the points of Jackson and whoever you used to fill his absence with? How does that compare to the guys that didn't miss time?Quick exercise...2008 style:

Jackson - 1042/379/8 = 190 points

Let's arbitrarily pick Jackson's fill-in - Leon Washington (RB30 that year). During the span that Jackson was out, 8-12, Washington scored 39 points. Nothing flashy. Jackson's 190 + Washington's 39 = 229 points. That would have made him RB6. The RBs that finished 7-12 were:

Tomlinson (16)

Portis (16)

Drew (16)

Westbrook (14)

Johnson (16)

Jacobs (13)

So, you could do the same exercise for Westbrook and Jacobs, but for a smaller amount of games. Even if they moved up, that would make Jackson + Washington no worse than RB8.

All that said, I like Turner before Jackson.

This is an EXCELLENT post! The thing that every single detractor of Steven Jackson seems to miss is that just because he misses a game does NOT mean you automatically get 0 points out of his spot in the lineup. What you actually get is the points that your replacement player scores. While this most likely means you are certainly taking a hit and won't have the same potential, it is not even CLOSE to being as bad as having an automatic 0, as most people seem to infer occurs every time Jackson misses a game. What is the difference between having 13 weeks of Jackson performing and netting you solid, consistent, fairly high level production and 3 weeks of one of your bench players netting you medicore production and a player like Mendenhall or Green or DeAngelo Williams or Turner? Sure those guys may all play 16 games, but none of them are the sure bets week in and week out that Jackson is and their down weeks are really nothing better than the weeks you are replacing Jackson in your lineup. This means its basically a wash, only Steven Jackson gives you the great value of knowing you are going to get points every single week because he is a PPR and yardage monster and does not rely on touchdowns for any of his value, really.Taking this into consideration (and crediting Jackson's spot in the lineup with whatever mediocre points his replacement would score during any game he misses...lets say 2-3 games per year), he is EASILY a top 8 RB and without question a very solid RB1, and its not close. His essentially guaranteed production while in the lineup MORE than makes up for the dip in points you would be forced to take for the 2-3 games he is injured. On top of that, the upside if he manages to stay healthy for a full season and can find a way to score more than 4 times is immense.

Agree that many people don't get that......when SJax misses time, you can fill in a RB3 or RB4 into his slot.But remember, the FF season is a sprint and not a marathon. Jackson missing 2-3 games can easily mean making and missing the playoffs, since you will be likely playing shorthanded for 2-3 games.....and in most cases, you should expect to lose when your 1st round pick is injured. Say Jackson will score 15 pts a game. With that same scoring system, a likely RB3 or RB4 will score 9-11 pts. That's a 4-6 point disadvantage.

And this doesn't factor in times when he gets hurt during the game and you already have him in your lineup.

So the concerns about Jackson being an injury risk is a valid one.