Sleeper RB of 2007! (1 Viewer)

[longshanks7]

so last week I asked a message board who everyone thought was the sleeper RB for 2007. I noticed a continuing trend throughout the picks. I saw a lot of people mentioning value and choosing the older (veteran RB) in 2 back systems... ie...

"I like JJ in Dallas as the value pick, and in keepers, he could be even better elsewhere."

so i did some research this past week into actual value players.

i also read an awesome article on chad johnson vs. tj houshmanzadeh.... ill post it "I'm not saying TJ is a better receiver. He is not. But fantasy football is not simply a talent contest. It is first and foremost a numbers game. So why would I draft a less consistent receiver in the 2nd round of my draft, when I could have a more consistent receiver in the 4th round that will get me about the same amount of points? Consistency is king in head to head leagues, and TJ was all over CJ in that department in '06."

anyways, i went scouting around for something that would actually rank so called value and take into consideration draft pos. and consistancy.

thehuddle.com has something called consistancy rankings, which i thought was interesting, but did little very little for me in terms of value... the top 3 RBs were LJ, SJax, and Tomlinson. That seemed to me like the overall rankings rather than actual "value".

i also found another site called fantasyquants.com

they list a select number of value picks at each position. the top 3 RBs looked like:

K Jones (who i am high on)

Deuce

J Jones

seemed pretty cool.

im wondering if any has any other sources or idea for so called "value"?

 

[AnonymousBob]

What?

 

[TheWick]

I think all three of those guys are huge risks this year. Kevin Jones might start on the PUP list and if he is deemed healthy before your draft then he won't come so cheap. Reggie Bush will take more of Deuce's carries this year I think and who knows if JJ will get the ball more than Marion. Too risky.

 

[IM666]

What?

 

[Mack DAddy]

What?

He's talking about value picks or VBD. To answer the original question, though, I am not aware of any sites geared specifically towards Value Based Drafting. To me, it pretty much comes down to the "Sleeper" projections that everyone likes to throw out. As for your original three RB's, I do think you could be getting some value with JJ potentially. But there is a reason these guys are going later in drafts... it's because they have risk associated with them. K Jones may not even start the year healthy, Duece is in a RBBC as is JJ. It's all a gamble if you ask me... But if you must know, I think Adrian Peterson takes over as the main starter in Minny by week 6!

 

[ImTheScientist]

What?

He has writing ADD and doesn't really tell us anything new AT ALL.

 

[longshanks7]

yes, so thats basically what i have noticed.... the older, less sexy players always are being undervalued, while the new hot tickets are always overrated....

i remember a couple years ago, i selected jj arrington in the 2nd round.... we all know how that did. but i then got tiki and curtis martin in later rounds and hit huge!

i think thats what this fantasyquant.com data is showing, and even know i cant read their math completely, it seems cool. the rookies, like adrian peterson (every year) are taken way too early.

for example, last year, ahman green / fred taylor were steals late....

 

[tomarken]

yes, so thats basically what i have noticed.... the older, less sexy players always are being undervalued, while the new hot tickets are always overrated....i remember a couple years ago, i selected jj arrington in the 2nd round.... we all know how that did. but i then got tiki and curtis martin in later rounds and hit huge!i think thats what this fantasyquant.com data is showing, and even know i cant read their math completely, it seems cool. the rookies, like adrian peterson (every year) are taken way too early.for example, last year, ahman green / fred taylor were steals late....

Frank Gore and MJD were late steals last year too. There's no "math" to this, other than the basic math that goes into VBD. The guys you listed are "value" picks because there is a large amount of risk associated with taking them. Kevin Jones can be had late in drafts, and has the potential to put up #1 RB numbers. If you think he will put up those numbers this year, then he is a "valuable" pick at his ADP. But there is a substantial possibility that he will not do so, and at this point no amount of math is going to tell you whether he will or not.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Cedric Benson....yeh!!!!

 

[rdstorm]

yes, so thats basically what i have noticed.... the older, less sexy players always are being undervalued, while the new hot tickets are always overrated....

i remember a couple years ago, i selected jj arrington in the 2nd round.... we all know how that did. but i then got tiki and curtis martin in later rounds and hit huge!

i think thats what this fantasyquant.com data is showing, and even know i cant read their math completely, it seems cool. the rookies, like adrian peterson (every year) are taken way too early.

for example, last year, ahman green / fred taylor were steals late....

Before I get into my reply, what is this fantasyquant.com? I get nothing when I try to go there. Is it maybe fantasyquants.com?Usually the more risk associated with a player, the greater his potential value as well, because he'll drop down the rankings due to his risk. You saw this with Portis last year, and are seeing it with a number of players this year including Caddy, Portis again, Jamal Lewis, Ahman, etc. Of course, risk isn't the only thing that makes this happen; in fact, as you mentioned, an older steady player without much buzz will usually be available at a draft spot lower than his actual value. Donald Driver is a prime example of this most years.

There are a number of ways to find potential value, and most of them involve looking at factors that most people miss or don't accurately project the effects of. Coaching changes are a huge example of this. Look at Martz going ot Detroit last year; most of the Detroit fantasy players were values: Kitna in the 10th (for me at least, but he could have been had later in most leagues), Roy Williams, and of course Furrey was a waiver wire pickup. That's good value. Where might that happen this year? Top on my list is Arizona, where Whiz and Russ Grimm come in; it may only be a big boost for Edge, but I'd bet it will give Leinart and at least one WR (I'm betting on Boldin) a big boost in numbers as well.

Some other places to look: players coming off injuries that affected their production last year (SA), players moving to better situations (T Henry), young players who caught fire at the end of the year but may have had mediocre overall stats (Santonio Holmes is one), RBs or WRs whose QB is drastically better (Caddy fits here), RBs or QBs whose O-Line gets better (Caddy fits here too), WRs who get better WRs on the other side to draw more coverage away (Roy Williams anyone?), QBs who get better WRs (Kitna again, Brady), QBs who go from year 1 to year 2 in a complicated system (Kitna). You can also find value around players who are getting too much buzz. Look at Deangelo Williams this year; he's being drafted higher than Deshaun, but Deshaun has been named the unquestioned starter. Deangelo's getting the buzz, but Deshaun is where the value could be (assuming he can stay healthy, which is a big if).

 

[Chunky Soup]

AP

 

[buster c]

K Jones (who i am high on)

is that what the kids are calling it these days?

 

[longshanks7]

i think your right on the spelling there.... with the s, not sure...

older players that would fit into this model

edge

deuce

julius

k jones

fred taylor

ahman

etc....

 

[Stealthycat]

K Jones (who i am high on)

Out until week 6 to 8 IMO

Deuce

Bush gets more looks this year in carries, just as many recpetions, Deuece gets TD's and a nice numbers but R Bush is the man

J Jones

Barber will be featured back after a few weeks if not in the opener

 

[enfuego]

Norwood....hands down.

 

[rdstorm]

Norwood....hands down.

If he starts, I agree. If not, he's just another Deangelo, only the guy in front of him (Dunn) doesn't have the injury history.

 

[kensat30]

Norwood has Brian Westbrook potential IMO. Even if he doesn't start or get the majority of the carries, I think he can still be a solid RB#2 with a RB#3/4 price tag. That doesn't even go into his potential if he DOES end up starting and getting the majority of the touches. Behind Julius Jones, Norwood is my RB to target after round 4/5.

 

[rdstorm]

Norwood has Brian Westbrook potential IMO. Even if he doesn't start or get the majority of the carries, I think he can still be a solid RB#2 with a RB#3/4 price tag. That doesn't even go into his potential if he DOES end up starting and getting the majority of the touches. Behind Julius Jones, Norwood is my RB to target after round 4/5.

I agree, Norwood has Westbrook potential. So does Deangelo.I disagree that either could be a solid RB2 if they are not the starter. To be a solid anything requries consistency, and if they are not starting, the consistency won't be there. If they are playing a team and losing big after teh first half, the RB that didnt' start will not get his touches. So that makes him a good RB3/RB4 with upside, not a solid RB2.

If he starts ("him" being Norwood or Deangelo), he could be in RB1 territory.

 

[flyingsushi]

K Jones (who i am high on)

Out until week 6 to 8 IMO

Deuce

Bush gets more looks this year in carries, just as many recpetions, Deuece gets TD's and a nice numbers but R Bush is the man

J Jones

Barber will be featured back after a few weeks if not in the opener

I was wondering bout K Jones as well. I thought Detroit did or was going to put him on the PUP list? It will be interesting to hear more about what the deal is with his health. If it is not good, I kind of like getting Tatum Bell. It seems he can be drafted late with possibly great value. Especially if K Jones in not really healthy.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

What?

:X

 

[nygiants56]

What?

Poor dude just joined this board on Friday, and he's already getting the classic one-liners!priceless

 

[longshanks7]

yea tough crowd....

oh well....

what i love to see is fantasy football stats applied to some solid math. if you guys follow MLB players and Sabr Metrics, its alot of the same info...

 

[twitch]

Im wondering what Willis McGahee's ADP is. Somewhere around 15? If so, Im liking his chance at exceeding that position. He plays on a team with a proven veteran QB and a decent but not prolific passing O. They also play great D and will provide a ton of short field situations, and will win atleast 10 games. And they dont play in a division with tremendous D outside of their own. And McGahee is a proven runner that doesnt fumble alot, plays hurt and doesnt have a history of injury (outside of the knee several yrs ago), and he's being payed like a feature back. Obviously he's not an under the radar sleeper in the traditional sense, but if he's picked up as a 2nd back in the 2nd or early 3rd, I like his value.

As far as the next Maurice Jones-Drew? Ive gotta think if Lendale White can get his fat tail in shape and come in with the right attitude, then he's got potential to meet whatever his minimal expectations currently are.

 

[The Mechanic]

What?

Poor dude just joined this board on Friday, and he's already getting the classic one-liners!priceless

Best Laugh I had all day.Got to agree here, that's why I usually keep my mouth shut.

 

[AnonymousBob]

yea tough crowd....oh well....what i love to see is fantasy football stats applied to some solid math. if you guys follow MLB players and Sabr Metrics, its alot of the same info...

Welcome to the board. Slow down and try speaking in complete sentences until we understand you better.You keep talking but even now I'm not entirely sure what you're looking for. Are you simply looking for players we feel will be great values? Try doing a search-it's the box in the lower left hand corner of the page. Type in "sleeper", "undervalued" or whatever other term pops into mind. If you aren't sure how to use the search feature don't hesitate to start a thread or PM myself or most people on the board. You'll find a LOT of useful information if you go back a few pages. If you're looking for threads where people really bust out all kinds of statistics, those are usually found in threads dedicated to certain players or draft strategies. I would recommend you look for the drafting a TE early thread or the Peyton Manning as the #5 pick thread. Those are examples of quality threads with numbers.

 

[Sultans]

My top sleeper especially is PPR leagues is Tatum Bell. I just have a feeling we won't be seeing KJ period and Bell will do well on Turf catching passes in the wide open Martz offense. You can grab him real late too which is the best part.

 

[AnonymousBob]

My top sleeper especially is PPR leagues is Tatum Bell. I just have a feeling we won't be seeing KJ period and Bell will do well on Turf catching passes in the wide open Martz offense. You can grab him real late too which is the best part.

His ADP is running back #37. I suspect if KJ is still crippled once we get closer to the season TinkerBell's ADP will skyrocket.

 

[ceo3west]

My top sleeper especially is PPR leagues is Tatum Bell. I just have a feeling we won't be seeing KJ period and Bell will do well on Turf catching passes in the wide open Martz offense. You can grab him real late too which is the best part.

All I know is if Bell can't get it done in Denver, I don't like his chances in Detroit. I'm washing my hands of him.

 

[turfman]

My top sleeper especially is PPR leagues is Tatum Bell. I just have a feeling we won't be seeing KJ period and Bell will do well on Turf catching passes in the wide open Martz offense. You can grab him real late too which is the best part.

All I know is if Bell can't get it done in Denver, I don't like his chances in Detroit. I'm washing my hands of him.

2004 Denver Broncos 14 0 75 396 5.3 29 3 2 18 2005 Denver Broncos 15 1 173 921 5.3 68 8 10 41 2006 Denver Broncos 13 13 233 1025 4.4 51 2 7 43 TOTAL 42 14 481 2342 4.9 68 13 19 102 Looks good to me, just didn't get the opportunity to be every down back

 

[ceo3west]

My top sleeper especially is PPR leagues is Tatum Bell. I just have a feeling we won't be seeing KJ period and Bell will do well on Turf catching passes in the wide open Martz offense. You can grab him real late too which is the best part.

All I know is if Bell can't get it done in Denver, I don't like his chances in Detroit. I'm washing my hands of him.

2004 Denver Broncos 14 0 75 396 5.3 29 3 2 18 2005 Denver Broncos 15 1 173 921 5.3 68 8 10 41

2006 Denver Broncos 13 13 233 1025 4.4 51 2 7 43

TOTAL 42 14 481 2342 4.9 68 13 19 102

Looks good to me, just didn't get the opportunity to be every down back

Yes, he did. Shanahan gave him the role until he couldn't hold up anymore and got hurt as per usual. He ended up in an RBBC with Mike Bell. Not exactly stud material. And in Denver, those numbers you posted aren't exactly impressive.

 

[Stealthycat]

nobody "holds onto the roll" in Denver, nobody

Tatum Bell is THE sleeper this year. His yards per carry is great, Martz will get the best out of him in a way Shannahan never could.

Shanny plays games with RB's

Bell has the talent, he's got the situation, look for big numbers from T Bell

IF Kevin Jones comes back ? He'll get hurt again, and split with Bell until he does. he's worse than Fred Taylor for injuries !

 

[NoDigg41]

K Jones (who i am high on)

Out until week 6 to 8 IMO

Deuce

Bush gets more looks this year in carries, just as many recpetions, Deuece gets TD's and a nice numbers but R Bush is the man

J Jones

Barber will be featured back after a few weeks if not in the opener

I was wondering bout K Jones as well. I thought Detroit did or was going to put him on the PUP list? It will be interesting to hear more about what the deal is with his health. If it is not good, I kind of like getting Tatum Bell. It seems he can be drafted late with possibly great value. Especially if K Jones in not really healthy.

Hope your league awatds points for fumbles!!!Remember how pedestrian his numbers were in RB-heaven (a.k.a. Denver), now put his butter fingers behind a shoddy Detroit Line.

Yeah tons of upside there!!!

 

[ceo3west]

nobody "holds onto the roll" in Denver, nobodyTatum Bell is THE sleeper this year. His yards per carry is great, Martz will get the best out of him in a way Shannahan never could. Shanny plays games with RB'sBell has the talent, he's got the situation, look for big numbers from T Bell IF Kevin Jones comes back ? He'll get hurt again, and split with Bell until he does. he's worse than Fred Taylor for injuries !

Sorry, but Shanny doesn't play with RB's - when he finds one who doesn't get hurt all the time and produces, he sticks with him:1998 Davis 2008/367 yds & 23 TD's1999 Gary 1159/159 & 7 TD's2000 Anderson 1487/169 & 15 TD's2001 injuries2002 Portis 1508/364 & 17 TD's2003 Portis 1591/314 & 14 TD's2004 Droughns 1240/241 & 8 TD's2005 Anderson 1014/212 & 13 TD's2006 Bell 1025/115 & 2 TD'sBell is no stud, sorry to disappoint. Even if he manages to stay healthy and rack up yards, he'll neven be a big TD guy, especially in the Martz offense. They'll be throwing to Williams & Johnson inside the 5.

 

[Sultans]

You are disappointing me?? lol

Bell did produce on the field. Shanny is a tough guy and perceived Bell as soft. Kevin Jones looked soft two years ago perhaps bust of the year but last year was on route to being a top 6 Back in PPR leagues. Did I say I was going to take him in the 5th round. I have seen him fall to 13th round or later a couple of times in drafts I have done. You never know who is going to be a stud. Why is Denver still RB heaven? I think playing a in Martz offense has just as many advantages. Again I qualified in PPR league. Tiki fumbled too, things can change. He is in a plum situation.

 

[cobalt_27]

yea tough crowd....

oh well....

what i love to see is fantasy football stats applied to some solid math. if you guys follow MLB players and Sabr Metrics, its alot of the same info...

Welcome to the board. Slow down and try speaking in complete sentences until we understand you better.

You keep talking but even now I'm not entirely sure what you're looking for. Are you simply looking for players we feel will be great values? Try doing a search-it's the box in the lower left hand corner of the page. Type in "sleeper", "undervalued" or whatever other term pops into mind. If you aren't sure how to use the search feature don't hesitate to start a thread or PM myself or most people on the board. You'll find a LOT of useful information if you go back a few pages. If you're looking for threads where people really bust out all kinds of statistics, those are usually found in threads dedicated to certain players or draft strategies. I would recommend you look for the drafting a TE early thread or the Peyton Manning as the #5 pick thread. Those are examples of quality threads with numbers.

 

[Routilla]

Chester Taylor. AP hype fizzles as the season gets going.

 

[AnonymousBob]

nobody "holds onto the roll" in Denver, nobodyTatum Bell is THE sleeper this year. His yards per carry is great, Martz will get the best out of him in a way Shannahan never could. Shanny plays games with RB'sBell has the talent, he's got the situation, look for big numbers from T Bell IF Kevin Jones comes back ? He'll get hurt again, and split with Bell until he does. he's worse than Fred Taylor for injuries !

What are you talking about? Shanahan is great with rb's. Just as Martz works wonders with qb's. Tatum may or may not be a great player for Detroit but to think Martz will be able to get something out of him when Shanahan couldn't is just Shanahan does NOT play games with his rb's. That's a stereotype that just won't die.

 

[hephner]

nobody "holds onto the roll" in Denver, nobodyTatum Bell is THE sleeper this year. His yards per carry is great, Martz will get the best out of him in a way Shannahan never could. Shanny plays games with RB'sBell has the talent, he's got the situation, look for big numbers from T Bell IF Kevin Jones comes back ? He'll get hurt again, and split with Bell until he does. he's worse than Fred Taylor for injuries !

What are you talking about? Shanahan is great with rb's. Just as Martz works wonders with qb's. Tatum may or may not be a great player for Detroit but to think Martz will be able to get something out of him when Shanahan couldn't is just Shanahan does NOT play games with his rb's. That's a stereotype that just won't die.

You're saying this just to try to motivate Tatum Bell, right?