well, if the post shows up then you pretty much did it correctly -- it's mostly about clicking the right button.This is my first post, so I hope I'm posting this correctly. I was just wondering if anyone out there knows why Antoine Cason's numbers have dipped so low in weeks 3 and especially 4 after scoring so high in weeks 1 and 2. Also, would Tyrann Mathieu be a better start this week. What about Bradley Fletcher, who has put up a lot of points recently instead?
my short answer would be I have no idea.
my long answer is I'd suspect simple statistical variance.
now, since we're not talking about a truly random event like a roulette wheel, or dice, the seemingly 'random' variance could certainly be the result of who he's covering, what scheme he defends, who the qb is, what stadium they're at, etc, but a lot of this comes down to perception.
after 2 weeks he had 16-3, 2 pd, 1 int, 2 ff, 1 fr
over 16 games that extrapolates to 128-24, 16 pd, 8 int, 16 ff, 8 fr ---- that has probably never happened in the history of football.
any cb you look at will have wildly fluctuating good games and bad games, and it just so happens he had 2 good ones in weeks 1 + 2 to set your expectations to an unrealistic level --- he could've had those 2 good weeks in 3 + 4 after a couple slow weeks in 1 + 2 and you'd be asking a different question, while his production after 4 weeks would be exactly the same.
week 3 seems perfectly productive for a corner, and looking at the week 4 game, just about every ball goes to steve smith, a back, or the te, so if he's not covering smiff he's not getting much opportunity.
(11:16) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 82-T.Smith [95-C.Johnson]. PENALTY on CAR-20-A.Cason, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at BAL 48 - No Play.
(8:04) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Smith. PENALTY on CAR-20-A.Cason, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 46 - No Play.
looking at the play by play above he may have been mostly on torrey smith. who got 3 targets, and probably pulled him deep, away from the action.
edit: I forgot the follow ups
just pulling this out of my ###, but I would imagine fletcher is just subject to the same variation as cason, or most other corners.
there are some schemes that advantage a guy like winfield, in the past, but I'm not aware of any particular reason to chase points on fletcher.
now that I look at it, that's kind of a funny one because he's pretty much just the reverse of cason, like I mentioned in my hypothetical earlier.
mathieu is definitely very interesting, but bear in mind he was on a very low snap count, so he'd be more of a stash and hold until his snaps came up.
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