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So Who Is Breaking Out in 2012? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ceo3west
- Start date
Hoos First
Footballguy
Travis Snyder. Gotta happen at some point, right?
Eephus
Footballguy
I like @lolomarlins this year. The new ballpark should favor left handers and batting near the middle of Miami's improved lineup will provide opportunities in the counting categories. Ozzie Guillen is a wildcard but it seems like he and Morrison are more kindred spirits than a guy like Jack McKeon.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
I'd go with Rasmus in the big white Blue Jays outfielder who used to be a top 5 MLB Prospect but has sucked category, at least he's assured a spot. Snider is still my favourite player though, he only has 4 years left to win that MVP award I promised...
MAC_32
Footballguy
Rasmus is definitely a finally removed his head out of his ### candidate.
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Buster Olney talked about Tyler Greene of the Cardinals.
The guy has torn it up in the minors but hasn't really been given a long-term shot.
He has a lot of physical skills, but just hasn't put it all together.
The guy has torn it up in the minors but hasn't really been given a long-term shot.
He has a lot of physical skills, but just hasn't put it all together.
ceo3west
Footballguy
Either of these.. just give me guys who will significantly exceed their value.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
That's a good one but I'm starting to wonder if Fowler is more freak athlete than he is baseball player.Speaking of Coors, what about a 30+ HR year from Cuddyer? In Yahoo he still has 2B elligibility.'Matthias said:
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Not at all - if he loses the battle with Thames for the LF job he could easily start the year at AAA
brewer
Footballguy
I like Yonder Alonso to put up Billy Butler type of numbers now that he will get a shot to play every day. Not terribly exciting, but the kind of player you can grab late and plug into your lineup. His average and OBP should be very good. I'm thinking something like .300 AVG, .375 OBP with 18-20 HR is not out of the question.
Eephus
Footballguy
Those power numbers will be a stretch, especially in Petco. He's never shown that kind of power in the minors. I think Casey Kotchman is a more realistic comp than Butler.
RnR
Footballguy
If Petco weren't in the equation, I'd agree with the OP on Alonso's upside. I don't understand the Kotchman comparison though, Alonso has massive power. He just also happens to have a line drive swing. In that regard, I feel the Butler comparison is accurate.
Jethro Q. Walrustitty
Footballguy
Tyler Colvin is interesting to me if he somehow manages to get regular playing time. Considering the inevitable breakdown of Helton and/or Blake, Cuddyer could easily see significant time in the IF.
Mat Gamel another guy full of post-hypey goodness.
Mat Gamel another guy full of post-hypey goodness.
Eephus
Footballguy
I haven't seen much of Alonso so I'm basing my comps on his minor league stats. I don't see massive power there. His Minor League numbers aren't way off from Kotchman's. Butler had one year where he dominated at High Desert.I don't think Alonso has to hit HRs to have value. He'll be a regular middle of the lineup bat and has CI/OF eligibility.
brewer
Footballguy
Agree with both of you guys about Petco and will not be shocked if he only hits like 15 HRs this year, but I do think that 20 is possible and I think his HR numbers will go up as he matures.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Shin Soo Choo and Jason Heyward immediately come to mind among guys that could vault into the top 15-20. Stanton, Lawrie, and Castro too but they're teetering closer to 50 than Choo and Heyward. Digging deeper I likeC - Salvador Perez and Mesoraco, although I think Mesoraco needs another year1B - Brandon Belt as a post hype breakout and Ike Davis, may have a slow start though as I don't trust the Mess training staff. Rizzo may benefit from the change of scenery too. Although I always get red flags about prospects that bounce between 3 teams as quickly as he has. I don't really feel good about anyone outside of the top 6 as my starting 1B though. These are all CI's.2B - Kipnis is the potential gem. Kelly Johnson and his every other year trend should provide a profit again this year followed by frustration next year. I still refuse to give up on Eric Young too, but he badly needs to be traded. I could see myself waiting to fill this position.SS - If a diamond is too emerge it's Cozart, although I'll probably gamble on Dee Gordon everywhere as I'm trending more towards power over the first 10 rounds and will need the speed. Hopefulyl gordon's my MI.3B - A lot of potential dark horses here, I'd bet on Moose first. Upwards trending and little competition for his job. I would like to avoid this being my starting 3B too and hope to have one of the top 8.OF - Colby Rasmus and Logan Morrison first. I also really like Bourjos and Fowler. Reimold too, but he seems like the type that needs a new team too otherwise I see Baltimore looking for a reason to get him off an every day job rather than trying to give it to him. You need to get OF's early on, but don't max out on OF and UTIL too quickly as there are some gems late.P - Kenley Jansen may be this yea'rs Kimbrel. Starters I have a list of guys I'm going hard after between rounds 12 and 15ish. Matt Moore, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Beachy, Cory Leubke, Neftali Feliz, and finally Chris Sale. There are others but those are the guys I feel strongest about. Per usual waiting on starters is the best route to go. Get a horse and a quality 2nd fiddle then wait. Unless the value is just too good I won't have 3 arms before round 11 or 12.'ceo3west said:
Captain Hook
Footballguy
You must be in some really small leagues - Moore, Gonzalez, Garza, Marcum, Beachy, Luebke all gone in the first ten rounds in three separate $$ drafts
MAC_32
Footballguy
Currently in the 12 team KFFL draft, rounding the 8/9 elbow and they're all still there. I guess it really depends on your competition. Unfortunately these guys value arms like I do. I usually don't have 2 until round 11 or 12, but Cliff Lee fell to the 4th and in the 9th I'm looking at Gallardo, Cain, and CJ Wilson. 6 picks out and I figure at least one of them falls.I figure I'll be happier in my local leagues when I'll be able to sweep up Starlin in round 4 and Lawrie in the 5th then mine for gold with arms late in the draft and throughout the season like I usually do. Neither of those guys made it to the 4th in this one. Bats, bats, and more bats. Tough crowd...
RnR
Footballguy
Mildly related, and since MAC32 just brought him up, Brett Lawrie is a guy being way over drafted to this point. It is creating a situation where there is very little room for profit on a pick spent on him. He can have a semi-breakout and still not be worth where he is being taken. Too many people getting way too geeked over a partial season.
Eephus
Footballguy
Eric Young Jr. doesn't have 2B eligibility carrying over from 2011. The Scutaro trade and a crowded OF makes it unlikely he'll get enough playing time to matter.
His dad didn't get regular run until relatively late so there's still hope Jr. will have a career. He needs some luck and some injuries to happen to somebody else. Unfortunately, he's been the one with the injuries and ill-timed slumps so far.
His dad didn't get regular run until relatively late so there's still hope Jr. will have a career. He needs some luck and some injuries to happen to somebody else. Unfortunately, he's been the one with the injuries and ill-timed slumps so far.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
If he does that should also set up a nice year for Brennan Boesch if he bats behind Jackson & in front of Cabrera & Fielder.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
I think he's a potential 30/30 players in 2 years. I also think there's a good shot he reaches one of those this year, but not the other - 20/30 or 30/20. If he gets to the 5 hole that's top 30 value from a thin position. I see him finishing top 5 among 3b's and maybe top 3.If I miss 3b in the first 3-4 rounds I'm all about him and I may take him as my CI anyway.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Eric Young completely depends on whether he gets traded. He needs out of Colorado if he'll ever pan out, clearly they don't believe in him. I think he's well worth a last round flier to see if an injury opens up a trade in spring training.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
He is going to be at least a 20/20 hitter at 3B.......how much do you think he is being overdrafted?
MAC_32
Footballguy
Agreed, but I think most Tigers fans expect him to be a 9 hole quality hitter unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid he's going to be a huge issue both offensively and defensively all year. We need to hope and prey Atlanta tanks early on going into sell mode making Michael Bourn available.
RnR
Footballguy
He has that potential, but with an ADP of 46 and range of pick 21 to pick 60 in NFBC drafts, where is the upside? Round 2-4 picks need to have a stable production history. You take your gambles on potential after you've built your base, IMO. I'm not saying he won't return the par value of a 46th overall selection, I'm saying it takes quite a leap of faith to make that assumption without a track record at that point in the draft, and it puts people in a situation where anything other than a break-out from a young hitter is crippling their chances of success.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
IF you want him.....and you think that 20/20 is a reasonable floor (and I do) then you either take him in the 4th round or wave him goodbye and let someone else have him - in a draft their is no alternative
RnR
Footballguy
Well, that's certainly true. I'll be the one waving goodbye and wishing him the best. Too many times before people have been burnt by this theory. See: Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, etc. They are all "can't miss" until they miss.
Eephus
Footballguy
Heyward was good value in his rookie year. 2011 not so much. He's a few months older than Lawrie
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Eggsactly! I bought in on Heyward in his rookie year - even before it was clear he would make the opening day roster....no so much last year....but I think he rebounds this year. There is NO cut and dry with the very young guys......Heyward was good value in his rookie year. 2011 not so much. He's a few months older than Lawrie
RnR
Footballguy
... and he was 21 years old going in the top 3 rounds of drafts last year. Drafting potential in the mid-late rounds wins leagues (Heyward, 2010), not necessarily true for drafting it in the first 3-4 rounds (Heyward, 2011).Heyward was good value in his rookie year. 2011 not so much. He's a few months older than Lawrie
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MAC_32
Footballguy
It's not an exact parallel, but if Lawrie goes like Ryan Braun then yes he is absolutely worth the going rate. I was burned like many from Heyward last year, and am calling the bounce back this year, but you can't let that effect how you draft this season. Not every top prospect takes time to adapt. I don't see any signs from Lawrie that he does need time.
RnR
Footballguy
<_< ... you show me one guy that has a monster year at 22, I'll show you 10 that don't. We seem to go through this with every big name prospect these days. I guess it is the instant gratification the internet brings out in us, but baseball players haven't suddenly changed the way they develop. Most guys gradually turn into front line performers, easing their way into their prime. Lawrie may break the mold and be the next Ryan Braun, but he would be an exception to the rule.My whole issue with Lawrie is the draft pick needed to draft him. I'm sure he'll have a fine season, but he better effin' produce if he's my 3rd round pick.
Eephus
Footballguy
The thread is titled "who is breaking out" not "who will outperform their draft position"
RnR
Footballguy
Carry on then, I'll shut up if you don't find my input on the discussion useful.
Eephus
Footballguy
No, wait. You forgot your shinebox
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
I'll say Howie Kendrick.....105R/20HR/80RBI/.305BA/18SB
Pedroia #'s 5 rounds later.
Pedroia #'s 5 rounds later.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Reasonable. And I agree re Pedroia, he's not a top 20 pick yet it's what he usually commands.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
It has become comical how hot Lawrie has been in ST so far. Another double, triple, and SB again today. I've got to stop watching ST stats or I'm going to reach a couple rounds for this guy.
I've already bet alot on Lawrie in my 4 player points keeper league... Drafted him at the beginning of the 6th along with Hosmer because I had two 6th round picks. Gonna live and die by trying to jump on the hype train. In my dreams he is the next Longoria, of course he could just as easily be the next Gordon Beckham.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
He runs more than Longoria. He's more like D Wright when he was right.
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
Sal Perez
Eric Hosmer
Johnny Giavotella
Mike Moustakas
wait, I am just listing the wealth of Royals talent here.
Actually I do like Perez and Hosmer to produce way above their cost this year. Also like Lawrie A LOT.
Eric Hosmer
Johnny Giavotella
Mike Moustakas
wait, I am just listing the wealth of Royals talent here.
Actually I do like Perez and Hosmer to produce way above their cost this year. Also like Lawrie A LOT.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Haven't read today's news?
