last year youll be able to get heyward after the 2nd round for the next 5 years....Like breakout as in young mid rounder becomes early rounder and young early rounder becomes 1st rounder?Jason Heyward
Travis Snider
That looks to be what the average fantasy baseball fan also ranks him.Some guys that I think are undervalued:
Buster Posey - unflappable demeanor and no telling how good he can be; I rank him #2 at catcher behind Mauer
nice list. maybe a little too optimistic on lowrie and hanrahan.like your moxie, kidSome guys that I think are undervaluedexter Fowler - needs to be more efficient stealing bases, but could be amazing this year hitting leadoffPrince Fielder - back over 40 HR and 115 RBIAdam Dunn - 45 HR looking inevitable at U.S. CellularNeftali Feliz - I'd rank him my #1 closer if that's his settled roleAdam Jones - you realize he's 25, right?Joel Hanrahan - elite power arm on a much improved teamKyle Drabek - love the pedigree and the curve; super consistent in the minorsTommy Hanson - makes the jump into the top 10 with enough inningsMatt Thornton - coasts to top 10 closer status, if not top 5; no one believes for some reason (Sale? C'mon..)Jay Bruce - few in baseball have his power skills, and hits in a lineup with VottoJhoulys Chacin - 23 years old and getting his control in orderAroldis Chapman - just get that heater anywhere near the zoneMatt Joyce - plenty of playing time and good power potentialRicky Nolasco - the outcomes have to match the skills eventuallyJed Lowrie - OPS stud in need of an opportunity; destroys lefties, but isn't dreadful against rightiesBuster Posey - unflappable demeanor and no telling how good he can be; I rank him #2 at catcher behind Mauer
Every year there is a stud setup man that lands into a closer role and thrives. Think guys like Heath Bell and JJ Putz. This year that guy is Thornton. I agree top 5.Matt Thornton - coasts to top 10 closer status, if not top 5; no one believes for some reason (Sale? C'mon..)
ozzie was extremely loyal to the crap pile that was bobby jenks, so thornton could have some job security too...Every year there is a stud setup man that lands into a closer role and thrives. Think guys like Heath Bell and JJ Putz. This year that guy is Thornton. I agree top 5.Matt Thornton - coasts to top 10 closer status, if not top 5; no one believes for some reason (Sale? C'mon..)
Playing time is a huge issue here. Otherwise you're probably right.For the price (OF63), it's worth a shot to see if Tyler Colvin's legit.He was a 1st round pick, slugged .480 his last season in the minors and essentially put the exact same numbers as Mike Stanton as a rookie. Plenty of flaws (got lucky with the HR/FB rate, strikes out too much like Stanton, and needs the Cubs to give up on ####udome), but unless last year was a total fluke, he'll be a top 30 OF next year.
Shhh. I need this to stay quiet for a few more weeks please.Edwin Encarnacion.....hits 30 bombs this year. Book it, done.
I've yet to see a draft where Posey went second at catcher.That looks to be what the average fantasy baseball fan also ranks him.Some guys that I think are undervalued:
Buster Posey - unflappable demeanor and no telling how good he can be; I rank him #2 at catcher behind Mauer
For reference, ADP from NFBC satellite leagues shows Posey as the #3 catcher off the board with an ADP of 38.77. Ahead of him are Joe Mauer (23.62) and Victor Martinez (34.54). Honestly, I think most people see Posey as the 2nd best talent, but the DH role for V-Mart might put him a notch above Posey for 2011 value.I've yet to see a draft where Posey went second at catcher.That looks to be what the average fantasy baseball fan also ranks him.Some guys that I think are undervalued:
Buster Posey - unflappable demeanor and no telling how good he can be; I rank him #2 at catcher behind Mauer
perhaps. even with the hype i think he's 15-18th 2B off the board which still leaves plenty of room for value IMO.I think the hype on Raburn is getting extreme. No longer a value, IMO.
I've yet to see a draft where Posey went second at catcher.That looks to be what the average fantasy baseball fan also ranks him.Some guys that I think are undervalued:
Buster Posey - unflappable demeanor and no telling how good he can be; I rank him #2 at catcher behind Mauer
His value is heavily dependent on position eligibility and doesn't have a ton of upside at age 30. If he spends all year in the OF, he's no great shakes in fantasy. But a utilityman with a career OPS+ of 110 has value in real-life. He's obviously worked hard to get where he's got and it'll be nice to see him get rewarded with a contact (hopefully not from the Giants).I think the hype on Raburn is getting extreme. No longer a value, IMO.
His value won't come from a 110 OPS+. His value MAY come from finally getting the chance to play every and putting up that .970 OPS that he did over the last two months of last year (the only months where he had 100+ PA).His value is heavily dependent on position eligibility and doesn't have a ton of upside at age 30. If he spends all year in the OF, he's no great shakes in fantasy. But a utilityman with a career OPS+ of 110 has value in real-life. He's obviously worked hard to get where he's got and it'll be nice to see him get rewarded with a contact (hopefully not from the Giants).I think the hype on Raburn is getting extreme. No longer a value, IMO.
Wow, I was going to call you crazy on Morneau, but you may have flipped meMy auction strategy hasn't changed much over the years and has served me well.
1. I refuse to punt any position. Ill pay full price for stud MI's and stud SP's, and then dumpster-dive for CI, OF, Backend SP, and Closers where its easier to find low-priced guys that can still contribute.
2. I always try to buy low and sell (trade or keep) high. In other words, I never target a guy at the draft unless I believe his ceiling is higher than the stats he posted the previous season. This eliminates a lot of (but not all of) the top-dollar players, and gives you a better chance at drafting great keepers at low contracts. Some of the guys Im keeping from last years draft include Hamilton, Weeks, Liriano, Price, and Sanchez. These are definitely not the kind of guys I would be targeting at this year's draft, but Im happy to have them as keepers with contracts well below market value. Im usually looking at guys coming off injury or a disappointing season, or late bloomers (prospects who may be taking a little longer than expected to develop).
3. I tend to avoid old guys. Sure, i miss out on a few good ones here and there, but these guys typically dont come at a huge discount and rarely make good keepers because no one believes they can "do it again" anyway.
I haven't done all my research yet, but these are the guys I'm targeting at each position because I expect them to outproduce their projections. Also, important to note that my league uses obp instead of avg which factors heavily into my thinking.
1B - bargain shopping
Morneau - can't really say Im targeting him at this point, but definitely watching. when some people hear his name they think "old and breaking down". the guy is only 29. thats just one year older than Adrian Gonzalez and 2 years younger than Ryan Howard (hell, its only 5 years older than "prospect" Ike Davis). he was injured at the end of '09 (still had a 30/100/85/363 season) and a question mark coming into '10. he only lasted half a season (concussion), but if you projected his stats over a full season he would have had a line of 36/112/106/437! its very concerning that they're still babying him from a concussion received 8 months ago, but if he's healthy, it could be just what you need to get an incredible discount on a proven stud.
Moreland - never had an OPS below .833 at any level. only thing keeping him from being discussed among other top prospects is his lack of pedigree (drafted in the 17th round). slated as the primary 1B in a great lineup and having a nice spring already.
Ka'aihue - great plate discipline and high % of hits for XB. also having a nice spring so far.
2B - ive already got my keepers here and am only looking for 1 low end guy. the fact that both these guys are ranked with the OFs greatly increases their value.
Zobrist - lineup not quite the same w/o crawford, but he's still the #3 hitter. coming off a disappointing season (this is a good thing). potential 20/20 and strong obp makes him a great gamble
Raburn - will finally have a FT job, but how will he handle righties? if he plays a full season, 20+ hrs are a good bet. not bad for an end-game 2B.
will post some thoughts on other positions when i have some more time... gimme your feedback and tell me what other players i should be considering at these positions...
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Overemphasizing September splits from a 30 year old utilityman isn't the shark moveHis value won't come from a 110 OPS+. His value MAY come from finally getting the chance to play every and putting up that .970 OPS that he did over the last two months of last year (the only months where he had 100+ PA).His value is heavily dependent on position eligibility and doesn't have a ton of upside at age 30. If he spends all year in the OF, he's no great shakes in fantasy. But a utilityman with a career OPS+ of 110 has value in real-life. He's obviously worked hard to get where he's got and it'll be nice to see him get rewarded with a contact (hopefully not from the Giants).I think the hype on Raburn is getting extreme. No longer a value, IMO.
That's why I emphasized the MAY. I'm not trying to sell him, though I am high on him from a Tigers fan perspective, but I am pointing out that any value won't come from what he is, but from what people hope he just might be.Overemphasizing September splits from a 30 year old utilityman isn't the shark moveHis value won't come from a 110 OPS+. His value MAY come from finally getting the chance to play every and putting up that .970 OPS that he did over the last two months of last year (the only months where he had 100+ PA).His value is heavily dependent on position eligibility and doesn't have a ton of upside at age 30. If he spends all year in the OF, he's no great shakes in fantasy. But a utilityman with a career OPS+ of 110 has value in real-life. He's obviously worked hard to get where he's got and it'll be nice to see him get rewarded with a contact (hopefully not from the Giants).I think the hype on Raburn is getting extreme. No longer a value, IMO.
CBS has him eligible at OF only to start the year. Not sure I'd peg him as a starting OF in a 12 or 14 teamer starting 3 OF's at this point.His value is heavily dependent on position eligibility and doesn't have a ton of upside at age 30. If he spends all year in the OF, he's no great shakes in fantasy. But a utilityman with a career OPS+ of 110 has value in real-life. He's obviously worked hard to get where he's got and it'll be nice to see him get rewarded with a contact (hopefully not from the Giants).I think the hype on Raburn is getting extreme. No longer a value, IMO.
Depends on your league. I don't think he's draftable as an OF in mixed leagues. But if he gets 2B eligibility and is still getting starter PAs, he may be worth a flyer. Either way, I don't think he meets the definition of a breakout.CBS has him eligible at OF only to start the year. Not sure I'd peg him as a starting OF in a 12 or 14 teamer starting 3 OF's at this point.His value is heavily dependent on position eligibility and doesn't have a ton of upside at age 30. If he spends all year in the OF, he's no great shakes in fantasy. But a utilityman with a career OPS+ of 110 has value in real-life. He's obviously worked hard to get where he's got and it'll be nice to see him get rewarded with a contact (hopefully not from the Giants).I think the hype on Raburn is getting extreme. No longer a value, IMO.
Guess I should have also mentioned that my targets only include players available at my draft so Im working with a pretty limited field. As much as I love guys like Heyward, Snider, Brett Anderson, etc to breakout, they're unavailable to me, so I wont be including him in my target list.SS - 1 HanRam please.My auction strategy hasn't changed much over the years and has served me well.
1. I refuse to punt any position. Ill pay full price for stud MI's and stud SP's, and then dumpster-dive for CI, OF, Backend SP, and Closers where its easier to find low-priced guys that can still contribute.
2. I always try to buy low and sell (trade or keep) high. In other words, I never target a guy at the draft unless I believe his ceiling is higher than the stats he posted the previous season. This eliminates a lot of (but not all of) the top-dollar players, and gives you a better chance at drafting great keepers at low contracts. Some of the guys Im keeping from last years draft include Hamilton, Weeks, Liriano, Price, and Sanchez. These are definitely not the kind of guys I would be targeting at this year's draft, but Im happy to have them as keepers with contracts well below market value. Im usually looking at guys coming off injury or a disappointing season, or late bloomers (prospects who may be taking a little longer than expected to develop).
3. I tend to avoid old guys. Sure, i miss out on a few good ones here and there, but these guys typically dont come at a huge discount and rarely make good keepers because no one believes they can "do it again" anyway.
I haven't done all my research yet, but these are the guys I'm targeting at each position because I expect them to outproduce their projections. Also, important to note that my league uses obp instead of avg which factors heavily into my thinking.
1B - bargain shopping
Morneau - can't really say Im targeting him at this point, but definitely watching. when some people hear his name they think "old and breaking down". the guy is only 29. thats just one year older than Adrian Gonzalez and 2 years younger than Ryan Howard (hell, its only 5 years older than "prospect" Ike Davis). he was injured at the end of '09 (still had a 30/100/85/363 season) and a question mark coming into '10. he only lasted half a season (concussion), but if you projected his stats over a full season he would have had a line of 36/112/106/437! its very concerning that they're still babying him from a concussion received 8 months ago, but if he's healthy, it could be just what you need to get an incredible discount on a proven stud.
Moreland - never had an OPS below .833 at any level. only thing keeping him from being discussed among other top prospects is his lack of pedigree (drafted in the 17th round). slated as the primary 1B in a great lineup and having a nice spring already.
Ka'aihue - great plate discipline and high % of hits for XB. also having a nice spring so far.
2B - ive already got my keepers here and am only looking for 1 low end guy. the fact that both these guys are ranked with the OFs greatly increases their value.
Zobrist - lineup not quite the same w/o crawford, but he's still the #3 hitter. coming off a disappointing season (this is a good thing). potential 20/20 and strong obp makes him a great gamble
Raburn - will finally have a FT job, but how will he handle righties? if he plays a full season, 20+ hrs are a good bet. not bad for an end-game 2B.
will post some thoughts on other positions when i have some more time... gimme your feedback and tell me what other players i should be considering at these positions...
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He's a .240 hitter that strikes out over 30% of his PAs. He's already gotten nearly 1300 PAs in the majors. Even if he tops 30 HRs, he's a liability in average, and no great shakes in SB, runs or RBI, especially when he'll hit no higher than 6th.3B
Ian Stewart - an extreme flyball hitter with huge power turning 25 this year and finally getting a full season of ABs, I like Stewart to top 30 and maybe even approach 40 HRs. With the guys hitting ahead of him, im expecting more RBIs than projected as well. Potential top 5 material, IMO.
Yeah, I don't see a ton of value with I-Stew. He's being drafted right around the guy who he might someday be (Reynolds). He's Reynolds without the track record.He's a .240 hitter that strikes out over 30% of his PAs. He's already gotten nearly 1300 PAs in the majors. Even if he tops 30 HRs, he's a liability in average, and no great shakes in SB, runs or RBI, especially when he'll hit no higher than 6th.3B
Ian Stewart - an extreme flyball hitter with huge power turning 25 this year and finally getting a full season of ABs, I like Stewart to top 30 and maybe even approach 40 HRs. With the guys hitting ahead of him, im expecting more RBIs than projected as well. Potential top 5 material, IMO.
No.He's Reynolds without the track record.
I wouldn't sell Stewart short. He's taking a bit longer to display it, but he could develop Reynolds-type power one day.No.He's Reynolds without the track record.
Stewart is entering his age 26 year in 2011, Reynolds his age 27 year. Aside from one year in the launching pad of Colorado Springs, all of Stewart's minor and major league ISOs have been lower than Reynolds major league average.Stewart could be a savvy late rounder in NL only leagues but chances are slim to none that he'll ever deliver the HRs like Reynolds. Reynolds in spite of his obvious SOs and defensive shortcomings, is a guy with over 100 HRs over the past three years.'pollardsvision said:I wouldn't sell Stewart short. He's taking a bit longer to display it, but he could develop Reynolds-type power one day.'RnR said:No.'pollardsvision said:He's Reynolds without the track record.
Love all the comparisons to Reynolds! I see Alvarez as a better comparison though (fewer HR's, better OBP). According to Yahoo Reynolds is going for $11.2, Alvarez is going for $11.8 and Stewart is going for $1.9. That's exactly the type of risk/reward Im looking for.Stewart is entering his age 26 year in 2011, Reynolds his age 27 year. Aside from one year in the launching pad of Colorado Springs, all of Stewart's minor and major league ISOs have been lower than Reynolds major league average.Stewart could be a savvy late rounder in NL only leagues but chances are slim to none that he'll ever deliver the HRs like Reynolds. Reynolds in spite of his obvious SOs and defensive shortcomings, is a guy with over 100 HRs over the past three years.'pollardsvision said:I wouldn't sell Stewart short. He's taking a bit longer to display it, but he could develop Reynolds-type power one day.'RnR said:No.'pollardsvision said:He's Reynolds without the track record.
Rockies manager Jim Tracy hinted Thursday that Ian Stewart (knee) may open the year on the disabled list.Stewart has been sidelined since late February with an MCL sprain. "He's only played three innings and it's the 11th of March, so am I a little concerned?" Tracy said. "I'll tell you this: I do not want to feel compelled to think we have taken anybody and tried to rush him to the finish line to try to throw him out there. You're asking for trouble." If Stewart is not ready, Ty Wigginton will probably patrol third base for Colorado on Opening Day.
I agree with you. I was just making a poor attempt at sarcasm. I was originally saying that Stewart isn't a great value if he's going around the same spot as Reynolds.Because of that, I was assuming that RnR was saying that Stewart is better than Reynolds. I could've been wrong on that.Anyway, I like Stewart well enough, but if the price is close, I'd much rather have Reynolds.Stewart is entering his age 26 year in 2011, Reynolds his age 27 year. Aside from one year in the launching pad of Colorado Springs, all of Stewart's minor and major league ISOs have been lower than Reynolds major league average.Stewart could be a savvy late rounder in NL only leagues but chances are slim to none that he'll ever deliver the HRs like Reynolds. Reynolds in spite of his obvious SOs and defensive shortcomings, is a guy with over 100 HRs over the past three years.'pollardsvision said:I wouldn't sell Stewart short. He's taking a bit longer to display it, but he could develop Reynolds-type power one day.'RnR said:No.'pollardsvision said:He's Reynolds without the track record.
It's crazy how much different the values at ESPN are. Apparently, ESPN drafters absolutely hate Reynolds.On ESPN, Reynolds is only going 5 picks before Stewart and their price is virtually identical ($4.6 and $4).Love all the comparisons to Reynolds! I see Alvarez as a better comparison though (fewer HR's, better OBP). According to Yahoo Reynolds is going for $11.2, Alvarez is going for $11.8 and Stewart is going for $1.9. That's exactly the type of risk/reward Im looking for.Stewart is entering his age 26 year in 2011, Reynolds his age 27 year. Aside from one year in the launching pad of Colorado Springs, all of Stewart's minor and major league ISOs have been lower than Reynolds major league average.Stewart could be a savvy late rounder in NL only leagues but chances are slim to none that he'll ever deliver the HRs like Reynolds. Reynolds in spite of his obvious SOs and defensive shortcomings, is a guy with over 100 HRs over the past three years.'pollardsvision said:I wouldn't sell Stewart short. He's taking a bit longer to display it, but he could develop Reynolds-type power one day.'RnR said:No.'pollardsvision said:He's Reynolds without the track record.
The consensus over at rotojunkie (or whatever it is now) is that the Yahoo rankings/values were much closer to reality.It's crazy how much different the values at ESPN are. Apparently, ESPN drafters absolutely hate Reynolds.On ESPN, Reynolds is only going 5 picks before Stewart and their price is virtually identical ($4.6 and $4).Love all the comparisons to Reynolds! I see Alvarez as a better comparison though (fewer HR's, better OBP). According to Yahoo Reynolds is going for $11.2, Alvarez is going for $11.8 and Stewart is going for $1.9. That's exactly the type of risk/reward Im looking for.Stewart is entering his age 26 year in 2011, Reynolds his age 27 year. Aside from one year in the launching pad of Colorado Springs, all of Stewart's minor and major league ISOs have been lower than Reynolds major league average.Stewart could be a savvy late rounder in NL only leagues but chances are slim to none that he'll ever deliver the HRs like Reynolds. Reynolds in spite of his obvious SOs and defensive shortcomings, is a guy with over 100 HRs over the past three years.'pollardsvision said:I wouldn't sell Stewart short. He's taking a bit longer to display it, but he could develop Reynolds-type power one day.'RnR said:No.'pollardsvision said:He's Reynolds without the track record.
I guess that's because the ESPN experts have them ranked almost identical. Both $7, Stewart 3B13, Reynolds 3B14.
RotoJunkieFix/RJ BullpenThe consensus over at rotojunkie (or whatever it is now) is that the Yahoo rankings/values were much closer to reality.It's crazy how much different the values at ESPN are. Apparently, ESPN drafters absolutely hate Reynolds.On ESPN, Reynolds is only going 5 picks before Stewart and their price is virtually identical ($4.6 and $4).Love all the comparisons to Reynolds! I see Alvarez as a better comparison though (fewer HR's, better OBP). According to Yahoo Reynolds is going for $11.2, Alvarez is going for $11.8 and Stewart is going for $1.9. That's exactly the type of risk/reward Im looking for.Stewart is entering his age 26 year in 2011, Reynolds his age 27 year. Aside from one year in the launching pad of Colorado Springs, all of Stewart's minor and major league ISOs have been lower than Reynolds major league average.Stewart could be a savvy late rounder in NL only leagues but chances are slim to none that he'll ever deliver the HRs like Reynolds. Reynolds in spite of his obvious SOs and defensive shortcomings, is a guy with over 100 HRs over the past three years.I wouldn't sell Stewart short. He's taking a bit longer to display it, but he could develop Reynolds-type power one day.No.He's Reynolds without the track record.
I guess that's because the ESPN experts have them ranked almost identical. Both $7, Stewart 3B13, Reynolds 3B14.![]()
Good list. Love Adam Jones since he's been forgotten already by most.Victorino is undervalued imo. With Utley's issues Victorino is virtually assured of batting in the top 3.So many late pitchers could get into the top 20 or higher. Volquez, Gio Gonzalez, D Hudson, Stauffer, Chacin, Kennedy. And there's the consistent old underrateds who find their way onto my team every year....Lilly and Kuroda.WW gems....any SD starter when pitching at Petco.Some guys that I think are undervaluedexter Fowler - needs to be more efficient stealing bases, but could be amazing this year hitting leadoffPrince Fielder - back over 40 HR and 115 RBIAdam Dunn - 45 HR looking inevitable at U.S. CellularNeftali Feliz - I'd rank him my #1 closer if that's his settled roleAdam Jones - you realize he's 25, right?Joel Hanrahan - elite power arm on a much improved teamKyle Drabek - love the pedigree and the curve; super consistent in the minorsTommy Hanson - makes the jump into the top 10 with enough inningsMatt Thornton - coasts to top 10 closer status, if not top 5; no one believes for some reason (Sale? C'mon..)Jay Bruce - few in baseball have his power skills, and hits in a lineup with VottoJhoulys Chacin - 23 years old and getting his control in orderAroldis Chapman - just get that heater anywhere near the zoneMatt Joyce - plenty of playing time and good power potentialRicky Nolasco - the outcomes have to match the skills eventuallyJed Lowrie - OPS stud in need of an opportunity; destroys lefties, but isn't dreadful against rightiesBuster Posey - unflappable demeanor and no telling how good he can be; I rank him #2 at catcher behind Mauer
Harang is an interesting option this year. His peripherals were always decent, but extreme flyball pitchers just dont do well in Cinci. If Petco can contain him, he could be a decent sleeper.WW gems....any SD starter when pitching at Petco.
Ka'aihue - great plate discipline and high % of hits for XB. also having a nice spring so far.
Kila Ka'aihue stayed hot on Sunday, going 2-for-3 against the Brewers.
He's now hitting .370 through his first 27 at-bats this spring, collecting three home runs and eight RBI in the process. His hot spring probably doesn't mean much, but should at least guarantee the Royals will give him a steady diet of at-bats in April.