Some HUGE favorites in week 11 (1 Viewer)

[Raider Nation]

New England -15½ @ Buffalo

Indianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas City

Dallas -10½ vs. Washington

Philadelphia -10 vs. Miami

Green Bay -10 vs. Carolina

Pittsburgh -9 @ New York Jets

I like Buffalo quite a bit plus the points at home.

 

[Chase Stuart]

New England -15½ @ BuffaloIndianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas CityDallas -10½ vs. WashingtonPhiladelphia -10 vs. MiamiGreen Bay -10 vs. CarolinaPittsburgh -9 @ New York JetsI like Buffalo quite a bit plus the points at home.

Take New England give the points.

 

[AllVolUT]

Depends on the Lynch situation. Hard to bet against NE coming off a bye, although I'll stay neutral as I hate laying serious chalk.

Not a big fan of any of the games, however I could see the 'Skins coming out to play and the Cowboys due for a let down after a big victory.

 

[Ghost Rider]

They might end up covering, but given how inconsistent they have been this season, you have to be out of your mind to take the Eagles minus that many points over anyone, including Miami.

 

[Notinuse]

NE, Dallas, GB, and Pitt will cover.

 

[AllVolUT]

NE, Dallas, GB, and Pitt will cover.

Thanks for the crystal-ball insight.

 

[Perfect Tommy]

Here is some betting insight you shouldn't ignore. If you like BUF vs. NE, take BUF on the moneyline. NE likes to run up the score. That is something that doesn't go unnoticed by bettors. But the ML is just based on a formula relative to the pointspread. So you gain a lot of value taking BUF with the ML rather than the points. You can 10-1 at one casino I checked out.

 

[eagles2007]

new orleans was a pretty big favorite in week 10. how did that work out?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

New England -15½ @ BuffaloIndianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas CityDallas -10½ vs. WashingtonPhiladelphia -10 vs. MiamiGreen Bay -10 vs. CarolinaPittsburgh -9 @ New York JetsI like Buffalo quite a bit plus the points at home.

I like Washington, Kansas City, MiamiDallas is playing well but it's a rivalry and double digits to the Skins is silly, take the points.Philadelphia is not good enough to be giving double digits. Miami has played the NFC EAST reasonable well. They played Giants and lost 13-10. They played Washington and lost by 3 I think in overtime early in the year. They played Dallas in Miami and was close for about 3 quarters before Dallas opened it up a bit.So, now they're getting double digits from probably the worst team n that division. I'll take the points.The Colts giving 14 points? They'll be happy for a win. Vegas knows people are scared to bet against the colts in general and have made money betting on them this year. They didn't play well last game and I like the Chiefs to cover 14.5.New England and Green Bay have very legitimate shots at covering that spread. Carolina is a BAD team right now and we all know about New England, even though Buffalo is playing pretty well they could win by 21 possibly.Pittsburgh/Jets is a toss up at that spread. I'd use my betting experience and not look at the teams but the situation instead. The Steelers are coming off an emotional division win. The Jets are coming off a bye week and have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Steelers.I'd take the Jets in this game because of the situation they the two teams are in coming into this game.

 

[Brutis]

New England -15½ @ BuffaloIndianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas CityDallas -10½ vs. WashingtonPhiladelphia -10 vs. MiamiGreen Bay -10 vs. CarolinaPittsburgh -9 @ New York JetsI like Buffalo quite a bit plus the points at home.

I like Washington, Kansas City, MiamiDallas is playing well but it's a rivalry and double digits to the Skins is silly, take the points.

Dallas fans know this game will be much closer than that spread. They seem to split the series most years, wouldnt suprise me to see dallas out right lose this game.

 

[omally]

I like Miami in week 11.

 

[tomarken]

Here is some betting insight you shouldn't ignore. If you like BUF vs. NE, take BUF on the moneyline. NE likes to run up the score. That is something that doesn't go unnoticed by bettors. But the ML is just based on a formula relative to the pointspread. So you gain a lot of value taking BUF with the ML rather than the points. You can 10-1 at one casino I checked out.

If I take Buffalo, can I write it off as a charitable donation?

 

[laughinboy_2000]

The best pick out of this bunch is Green Bay -10. Carolina's offense is just horrible, and their defense is almost as bad. Grab it at -10 while you still got it.

 

[PantherPower]

Sean Taylor won't be playing vs Dullass, so unfortunately I could see them covering that spread.

 

[Mik789fl]

Here is some betting insight you shouldn't ignore. If you like BUF vs. NE, take BUF on the moneyline. NE likes to run up the score. That is something that doesn't go unnoticed by bettors. But the ML is just based on a formula relative to the pointspread. So you gain a lot of value taking BUF with the ML rather than the points. You can 10-1 at one casino I checked out.

I'm no Jimmy The Greek but if you take the money line doesn't that team have to win the game outright?

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

As a KC homer, my lock of the week is INDY.....

Croyle making 1st NFL start

No LJ = no KC running game

Colts pissed about the performance in SD = extra motivation IMO

Colts may get Clark, Harrison and Ugoh back

-Also, KC has never won in the RCA Dome

I see a final score of 45-6 Indy, and I only gave KC 6 because Rayner might hit a couple FGs to impress his old employer.

It will be UGLY

 

[LILB811]

Before the game vs. Tennessee, Carolina had either won or lost by 3 points or fewer in 23 of their previous 24 road games. I could see this being a 7 point game, and I'd be hesitant to take Green Bay. I'd just stay away period.

Pittsburgh and Dallas would be my first choices to cover.

 

[dudaman]

As a KC homer, my lock of the week is INDY.....

Croyle making 1st NFL start

No LJ = no KC running game

Colts pissed about the performance in SD = extra motivation IMO

Colts may get Clark, Harrison and Ugoh back

-Also, KC has never won in the RCA Dome

I see a final score of 45-6 Indy, and I only gave KC 6 because Rayner might hit a couple FGs to impress his old employer.

It will be UGLY

here we go again - pissed teams spanking other teams - doesn't work this way. The only motivation the Colts need is that their first-round bye is in jeopardy. They are hurting and now without Freeney. 13.5, maybe. 14.5? No way. I guess you could say that the Chiefs are pissed about their performance last week.

 

[Raider Nation]

new orleans was a pretty big favorite in week 10. how did that work out?

Not so good for me. Ruined a 3-team, 10-point teaser for me. I've been sticking pins in my Drew Brees voodoo doll for the past two days.

 

[Perfect Tommy]

Here is some betting insight you shouldn't ignore. If you like BUF vs. NE, take BUF on the moneyline. NE likes to run up the score. That is something that doesn't go unnoticed by bettors. But the ML is just based on a formula relative to the pointspread. So you gain a lot of value taking BUF with the ML rather than the points. You can 10-1 at one casino I checked out.

I'm no Jimmy The Greek but if you take the money line doesn't that team have to win the game outright?

Yes, that is what the moneyline means. But if you think getting BUF at 10-1 is ridiculously bad, why not just take NE at 1-12 and get some obviously free money? Casinos let you do that, as well.

 

[Harpua]

Home dog greater than 10? hold your nose and take the points

 

[culdeus]

Here is some betting insight you shouldn't ignore. If you like BUF vs. NE, take BUF on the moneyline. NE likes to run up the score. That is something that doesn't go unnoticed by bettors. But the ML is just based on a formula relative to the pointspread. So you gain a lot of value taking BUF with the ML rather than the points. You can 10-1 at one casino I checked out.

I'm no Jimmy The Greek but if you take the money line doesn't that team have to win the game outright?

Yes, that is what the moneyline means. But if you think getting BUF at 10-1 is ridiculously bad, why not just take NE at 1-12 and get some obviously free money? Casinos let you do that, as well.

Very few books, if any, will post a money line for this game.

 

[brednbuddah]

Pittsburgh/Jets is a toss up at that spread. I'd use my betting experience and not look at the teams but the situation instead. The Steelers are coming off an emotional division win. The Jets are coming off a bye week and have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Steelers.I'd take the Jets in this game because of the situation they the two teams are in coming into this game.

I see your point, but I think the stadium is going to be 60-40 jets fans, maybe even 50-50. Steelers fans are the most loyal fans in the NFL. They will be there in droves, early as hell too. They will find a way to get those elusive stadium parking passes and be just as much a part of the tailgate as the Jets fans. What compounds the problem is the causal Jets fan will no longer be trekking to the games (being that the season is over and the weather will start to suck) and having to deal with being shuttled in from miles away due to the construction. The excess will fall into the hands of the Steeler fan who will put up with the inconvenience with a smile on their face.Steelers will get this game as a pseudo-home game and cover the spread easy. btw, looking forward to tailgating with the Steeler fans - coolest people in football, bar none.

 

[Giants4Life]

New England -15½ @ Buffalo - NE by 30

Indianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas City - Colts by 7

Dallas -10½ vs. Washington - Cowboys by 17

Philadelphia -10 vs. Miami - Eagles by 20

Green Bay -10 vs. Carolina - Packers by 3

Pittsburgh -9 @ New York Jets - Steelers by 6

 

[Meast21]

New England -15½ @ BuffaloIndianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas CityDallas -10½ vs. WashingtonPhiladelphia -10 vs. MiamiGreen Bay -10 vs. CarolinaPittsburgh -9 @ New York JetsI like Buffalo quite a bit plus the points at home.

I like Washington, Kansas City, MiamiDallas is playing well but it's a rivalry and double digits to the Skins is silly, take the points.

Dallas fans know this game will be much closer than that spread. They seem to split the series most years, wouldnt suprise me to see dallas out right lose this game.

Sean Taylor is out for at least two weeks...after he got injured in the 3rd quarter against the Eagles they put up 20 in the 4th. Without him, this game becomes much much harder.

 

[notapplicable]

Any locks this week besides these big favorites? I am thinking STL @ San Fran looks like easy money.

San Fran looks horrible. Wouldn't surprise me if the Rams win by 20

 

[BLOX]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that Indy is the biggest lock this week.

There is no way a weak offense like KC can keep pace with Indy at home. Indy wins by 28-31 points.

I like the St. Louis pick as well.

I think I may parlay those two with the New England/Buffalo under.

 

[The_Man]

I like the Ravens getting points at home. They're 27-3 in their last 30 home games vs. any team in the league not named Cincinnati.

Last week, I was an enthusiastic poster in Jeff Pasquino's Lock of the Week thread predicting the Bengals would thump Baltimore. This week, I am predicting the Ravens, behind Boller, beat a Cleveland team who will be showing signs of strain in their second consecutive divisional game on the road.

 

[timschochet]

The rest of the year there will be big spreads for the following 6 teams (unless they're playing each other)

NE

Pittsburgh

Indy

Dallas

Green Bay

Any reasonably decent team playing Miami

I predict the biggest spread for a regular season game in NFL history will be New England vs. Miami.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'll back off my Buffalo pick. If Lynch sits, which looks likely, they will struggle to keep it within 20.

 

[fflnut]

Seems like a good opportunity for a 3 game teaser of the 7 point variety.

 

[Tanner9919]

New England -15½ @ BuffaloIndianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas CityDallas -10½ vs. WashingtonPhiladelphia -10 vs. MiamiGreen Bay -10 vs. CarolinaPittsburgh -9 @ New York JetsI like Buffalo quite a bit plus the points at home.

as an owner of Kevin Faulk, Indy Def, Romo, T.O., James Jones, S. Holmes and even the Pats def, this thread makes me happy!!looks like another biug day for the names listed above, plus Favre, the Steelers offfense , McNabb + Co., etc...

 

[stevegamer]

Seems like a good opportunity for a 3 game teaser of the 7 point variety.

I'd agree with that - teased 7 points, they look really nice:NE - 8.5Indy - 7.5Dallas - 3.5GB -3Philly -3Pitt - 2I'm not sure there's a game on that list I'd shy away from at those points.

 

[fflnut]

Seems like a good opportunity for a 3 game teaser of the 7 point variety.

I'd agree with that - teased 7 points, they look really nice:NE - 8.5Indy - 7.5Dallas - 3.5GB -3Philly -3Pitt - 2I'm not sure there's a game on that list I'd shy away from at those points.

Or go in the other direction:New England -22½ @ BuffaloIndianapolis -21½ vs. Kansas CityDallas -17½ vs. WashingtonPhiladelphia -17 vs. MiamiGreen Bay -17 vs. CarolinaPittsburgh -16 @ New York JetsNow those are HUGE point spreads.

 

[renesauz]

Any locks this week besides these big favorites? I am thinking STL @ San Fran looks like easy money. San Fran looks horrible. Wouldn't surprise me if the Rams win by 20

Weren't we arguing just last week over whether Miami or St Louis were the worst teams in football..now SL is favored, ON THE ROAD? And you think they're a lock?Dude...pass whatever you're smoking around!!!

 

[big0mar]

im taking KC

their pass defense is vastly underrated. plus arrowhead is always a tough place to play. im guessing the large spread is due to LJ being out, but their run game was marginal at best with him 'healthy'

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

im taking KCtheir pass defense is vastly underrated. plus arrowhead is always a tough place to play. im guessing the large spread is due to LJ being out, but their run game was marginal at best with him 'healthy'

The game is in Indy

 

[Phurfur]

New England -15½ @ BuffaloIndianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas CityDallas -10½ vs. WashingtonPhiladelphia -10 vs. MiamiGreen Bay -10 vs. CarolinaPittsburgh -9 @ New York JetsI like Buffalo quite a bit plus the points at home.

Parlay - KC, Miami, Carolina

 

[nyftbl_giants]

The best pick out of this bunch is Green Bay -10. Carolina's offense is just horrible, and their defense is almost as bad. Grab it at -10 while you still got it.

I agree, the panthers couldnt stop dunn and the hapless falcons at home. i dont see them in this game at all.

 

[AllVolUT]

im taking KCtheir pass defense is vastly underrated. plus arrowhead is always a tough place to play. im guessing the large spread is due to LJ being out, but their run game was marginal at best with him 'healthy'

KC is just a bad team right now. I thought they were starting to catch fire, but I believe that loss at Arrowhead against GB really deflated them. Starting Brodie Croyle at the RCA dome and no LJ....ouch. IMO, GB looks solid. I'll take my chance with an 8-1 Pack team at Lambo against either Testy or Carr (hopefully the latter). STL is catching my attention as well, but mainly because I feel SF is playing the worst football in the league right now. Dilfer starting against a team with momentum doesn't seem like a great combo for Niner fans.As stated above, I also like the 'Skins in a rivalry game - Dallas could also be due for a let down game after that big game on the road.Also a big fan of the Jags this weekend. I expect the public to pound SD, only to see the Jags swarming defense lead them to the victory. It took a miracle miss from Vinatieri for SD to pull that win out last week - I took the Chargers last weekend but I think now is a time to jump off ship for the weekend. Despite the two scores from Sproles, their offense looked anemic.

 

[Routilla]

PIT crushes the Jets IMO.

 

[Routilla]

I like PHI over MIA as well. The Eagles have to be riding high after coming back on the 'skins last week.

 

[bshell27]

Here's my picks:

SD is a lock

TB solid play

Take WAS and the points

Pick STL over SF

Bears and the points!!!

These are guarantees!

 

[BigTex]

Dallas -10½ vs. Washington

Does someone know something I don't?

 

[Raider Nation]

Here's my picks:

SD is a lock

TB solid play

Take WAS and the points

Pick STL over SF

Bears and the points!!!

These are guarantees!

Okay then. I'm going a nickel on each of these. You can reimburse me if they lose.

 

[Raider Nation]

New England -15½ @ Buffalo Night Game

Indianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas City DOG covers

Dallas -10½ vs. Washington DOG covers

Philadelphia -10 vs. Miami PUSH

Green Bay -10 vs. Carolina FAVORITE covers

Pittsburgh -9 @ New York Jets DOG covers, and wins outright

Interesting results so far.

 

[richn]

NE, Dallas, GB, and Pitt will cover.

how is that going so far, creskin???

 

[Liquid Tension]

New England -15½ @ BuffaloIndianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas CityDallas -10½ vs. WashingtonPhiladelphia -10 vs. MiamiGreen Bay -10 vs. CarolinaPittsburgh -9 @ New York JetsI like Buffalo quite a bit plus the points at home.

I like Washington, Kansas City, MiamiDallas is playing well but it's a rivalry and double digits to the Skins is silly, take the points.Philadelphia is not good enough to be giving double digits. Miami has played the NFC EAST reasonable well. They played Giants and lost 13-10. They played Washington and lost by 3 I think in overtime early in the year. They played Dallas in Miami and was close for about 3 quarters before Dallas opened it up a bit.So, now they're getting double digits from probably the worst team n that division. I'll take the points.The Colts giving 14 points? They'll be happy for a win. Vegas knows people are scared to bet against the colts in general and have made money betting on them this year. They didn't play well last game and I like the Chiefs to cover 14.5.New England and Green Bay have very legitimate shots at covering that spread. Carolina is a BAD team right now and we all know about New England, even though Buffalo is playing pretty well they could win by 21 possibly.Pittsburgh/Jets is a toss up at that spread. I'd use my betting experience and not look at the teams but the situation instead. The Steelers are coming off an emotional division win. The Jets are coming off a bye week and have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Steelers.I'd take the Jets in this game because of the situation they the two teams are in coming into this game.

you were all over this! I gave the points with the Packers and then I took a teaser with the Bears +14 1/2, KC +23 1/2 and Pitt to win Pitt's loss hurt.At least my St. Louis bet came in and my week will be decided with Tennessee getting 2

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

New England -15½ @ BuffaloIndianapolis -14½ vs. Kansas CityDallas -10½ vs. WashingtonPhiladelphia -10 vs. MiamiGreen Bay -10 vs. CarolinaPittsburgh -9 @ New York JetsI like Buffalo quite a bit plus the points at home.

I like Washington, Kansas City, MiamiDallas is playing well but it's a rivalry and double digits to the Skins is silly, take the points.Philadelphia is not good enough to be giving double digits. Miami has played the NFC EAST reasonable well. They played Giants and lost 13-10. They played Washington and lost by 3 I think in overtime early in the year. They played Dallas in Miami and was close for about 3 quarters before Dallas opened it up a bit.So, now they're getting double digits from probably the worst team n that division. I'll take the points.The Colts giving 14 points? They'll be happy for a win. Vegas knows people are scared to bet against the colts in general and have made money betting on them this year. They didn't play well last game and I like the Chiefs to cover 14.5.New England and Green Bay have very legitimate shots at covering that spread. Carolina is a BAD team right now and we all know about New England, even though Buffalo is playing pretty well they could win by 21 possibly.Pittsburgh/Jets is a toss up at that spread. I'd use my betting experience and not look at the teams but the situation instead. The Steelers are coming off an emotional division win. The Jets are coming off a bye week and have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Steelers.I'd take the Jets in this game because of the situation they the two teams are in coming into this game.

you were all over this! I gave the points with the Packers and then I took a teaser with the Bears +14 1/2, KC +23 1/2 and Pitt to win Pitt's loss hurt.At least my St. Louis bet came in and my week will be decided with Tennessee getting 2

Thanks for the quote.........I didn't mess around and not go with my gut instinct this week.I will say I didn't bet the Dallas/Redskin game as I wasn't betting against the Cowboys even though I felt the spread was just too high.Ended up pushing on Miami although I thought it was a solid bet early on.Made the most money I KC, I really felt strongly that they'd cover today and then my 2nd tier plays were the Jets and GB. I almost felt that Green Bay was so easy I didn't bet it because usually when something looks easy, it's not but it worked out.I'm torn on tonight's game. Betting instincts tell me to take the Bills and the points so that's probably what I'm going to do but it's going to be a small play as I'm not betting big against the Patriots, they're too good.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm torn on tonight's game. Betting instincts tell me to take the Bills and the points so that's probably what I'm going to do but it's going to be a small play as I'm not betting big against the Patriots, they're too good.

I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy this one.N.E. could win 41-13, or the Bills could give an inspired effort and lose 31-17, thus covering. I'll pass.