L
Luke Skywalker
Guest
Just IMO but Forte is well-deserving of moving into Tier 2 on the OP's list.
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Some PPR Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm a big Fitzpatrick fan, but I don't think this is true. They are very silimiar physically in almost every aspect of their game - smart, accurate but "weak" arms, above average mobility.... The fact that Cassell was recruited to USC, which was THE football program in that nation at the time and Fitzpatrick went to Harvard (of course people choose Havard for different reasons) should tell you something about their talent.The truth is both are average talents whose production will depend on their situations. Cassell succeeded under Weiss and Haley last season and when he had Moss and Welker in NE. Fitz under Chan Gailey who runs a very uniqiue offense - he failed miserably with the Rams and Cinncy before that.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
Forte's a bit tough to value because he's a FA after the season and it doesn't seem like a lock he'll be back in Chicago. It also seems like his scoring is a bit system dependent because of how much he depends on the receptions. Because of those reasons, I'd have him slightly below McFadden who is a bit younger and (imo) more talented and less system dependent. I would personally have Forte ahead of both CJ and Matthews though. Matthews still has to worry about Tolbert in the red zone and that doesn't seem to be going away. CJ just doesn't look right and he may be the type of guy (who is very, very reliant on his burst as opposed to power or anything else) who could lose it quickly.
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
I think Ponder>Tebow, or at least Ponder=Tebow, at this point; there is also no way that Tebow is above E. Manning
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Why can't Tebow be higher than E. Manning? Eli has over many seasons shown what he is. A good, solid, lower end QB1. Not a bad thing to have, but he isn't winning you anything on his own and his production can easily be replaced for a relatively low price. Tebow on the other hand offers elite upside. He may not be likely to hit that high level, but if he does, he is winning you games by himself. The single biggest mistake I see in dynasty leagues is people not valuing ceilings of a player properly. Yea, there may be a 90% chance that Eli is a better fantasy QB than Tebow. But the 10% chance that Tebow becomes what he can be is still worth more than that. If you swing and miss on Tebow, then you go get a proven performer for cheap who can replicate or come close to replicating Eli's production.
I don't view Eli as a difference maker for a Dynasty team, but I like having him to spot start (and a little more this year). He never gets hurt and has some very good weapons... but he will throw in a clunker.
Tebow is an unknown quantity/quality. If some HC/OC can figure out how to use his strengths, then he can be a difference maker. I worry about his aggressive style of play and the hits he will take. But a QB that will run 50-60 yards a week is pretty valuable.
I have both on different dynasty teams, and it completely depends on the rest of my roster which QB i prefer... so i guess i view them as the same Tier
Tebow is an unknown quantity/quality. If some HC/OC can figure out how to use his strengths, then he can be a difference maker. I worry about his aggressive style of play and the hits he will take. But a QB that will run 50-60 yards a week is pretty valuable.
I have both on different dynasty teams, and it completely depends on the rest of my roster which QB i prefer... so i guess i view them as the same Tier
Concept Coop
Footballguy
As for Brees, I am comfortable with where I have him. Cam and Rodgers are both no-brainers for me, and in a tier of thier own. As for #3, I think there is a very good case to be made for Brees, outside of a vacuum, depending on situation. Even if we assume Brees can continue offering 80 VBD every season, Stafford would surely catch up by the end of his career, by a large margin if he stays healthy. Tebow should be ranked above every QB not projected to offer VBD on a yearly basis. There is no value in starting the baseline - guys ranked below Tebow, but who are safer. Even if we assume that Tebow has a 25% chance of being a starter for more than 1 season, that potential is worth more than a baseline player, who won't help you win. Per game, Tebow has been the best fantasy QB since he has started. I won't ignore that.I see your argument for Marshall and think it is valid. I really like his talent and have him just outside of my top 15. There is surely an argument to be made, based on talent, for Marshall to be ahead of guys like Maclin and Johnson. But, I do feel comfortable where I have him ranked, due to his short term situation and personal issues.In a vacuum, I might have Gates too high. There are so many young TEs who will no doubt offer more raw value over thier careers than Gates will from here on out. Of course, in many situations Gates is more valuable than those ahead of him, just like he has much less in others.Thanks for the comments. Very solid and I appreciate them.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
We don't know if either has what it takes to be a starter in the NFL. We do know that Tebow produces at an elite fantasy level when he is on the field. I would gladly take Tebow over Poner, by a large margin.
Max Power
Footballguy
CC... thanks for taking the time to make a thread like this. These are actually some of the most informative posts for trading purposes.
I'm curious as to what you and other owners think the Value of Fred Jackson is. Assuming the team with Jackson is looking to build for next year or the future, whats a decent estimate of cost for him? A late 1st round pick 10-12 range?
I'm curious as to what you and other owners think the Value of Fred Jackson is. Assuming the team with Jackson is looking to build for next year or the future, whats a decent estimate of cost for him? A late 1st round pick 10-12 range?
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
CC, I would certainly not ever claim to know more than you, so please take the following as inquisitiveness, not accusatory: while I agree that we don't know that either will be a long-term starter, I certainly don't see Tebow, at least so far, producing at elite fantasy levels when he is on the field. Tebow has exactly 1 game over 300 yards passing and exactly 1 game at over 200 yards passing, with 1-3 TD game to go along with that; in a time when 300 yards-3TD games are pretty much the floor for an elite QB to do weekly, I just can't see how he can be put on that level. I do realize that a league's particular scoring might make Tebow more attractive, such as 4 pts. for a pass TD/6 pts. for a rush and 10 yards per pt. as compared to 20 yards for a passing pt., I just don't know that it overcomes their limited play-making. QB's, such as Rodgers, certainly can, and do, rush for a TD during a game while posting multiple TD, 300 yard passing, games. If Tebow cannot produce through the air, I am afraid his days as an NFL QB will be numbered. Now as an elite NFL talent, I'll give you Tebow is right there, just not at the QB position and I certainly could see DEN revisiting another QB this year. He reminds me of, and may share the same career path as, Kordell Stewart; back in his "slash" days; K. Stewart the QB, was one that nobody would say was elite, especially by today's passing standards. I am certainly not an "X's" and "O's" guy but I do see that having these highly athletic, with poor offensive plan implementation, almost one-trick-pony type QB, is a tough way for a NFL team to win consistently; a la Cunningham, Stewart, McNabb, Vick, and others. Don't get me wrong I certainly see, and saw, the FFB value of the high rushing yard QB but I just think the pure "elite" passer (especially today's definition) wins this equation, long term, in a seasonal context. Cam Newton is probably the best example of a highly athletic QB, that can post serious passing yard totals too, and Rodgers is still outpacing him in FFB points; Tebow has never shown the ability to get passing yards like Newton, either. As far as my Ponder>Tebow comment, I would certainly concede there is nowhere near the data to conclusively state that accurately but I think that Ponder offers the type of QB play that will make everyone around him better from WR's to RB's; where I think Tebow limits this. If Tebow is really the best player on the field, how hard will it be for a DC to game plan to take away his best asset; when this happens, do you think he is really going to step into being a pocket passer? For me, from what little I've seen, Ponder seems to have the more "heady" game and who is mobile enough to extend plays; that is what I want in my QB. I will give you this, Tebow does seem to be a winner and I wouldn't discount that; no matter how "ugly" he does it.
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bengalbuck
Footballguy
I'm not overly high on Tebow personally, but in his short time as a starter, he has been a fantasy stud in pretty much any scoring system. I believe he was the #1 fantasy QB over the last 3 games of last season for example when given the chance to start.
He has basically been averaging 40-50 yards rushing and a rushing TD per game. That's 9 or 10 points just on the ground which is absolutely huge when you consider that most of the QBs are pretty tightly bunched based on their passing stats (except for the top few guys like Brees/Brady/Rodgers, you see most guys within that range of 3500-4500 yards, 20-28 passing TDs with each guy having up and down seasons and averaging closer to the middle).
So if most QBs end up in the 18-22 PPG range, even if Tebow only puts up 14 or 15 points in the passing game, if he is giving you that extra 8 or 9 points on the ground, he is right there near the top of that 2nd tier of guys after the top 6.
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
You mean after the "elite" ones?
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bengalbuck
Footballguy
I'll also add that while I'm pretty new to dynasty, my valuation system (if not my personal rankings) is pretty similar to CCs. I try to always think in terms of value over a replacement level player.
For example, WRs who put up 12 PPG are pretty easy to find in my experience. So a solid veteran that puts up 13 PPG, while definitely of some value, is usually not the type of guy I value real highly and pursue. I would rather have the hit or miss guy with a 25% chance of 16 or 17 PPG. Because a 25% chance at 5 ppg over replacement is worth more than a 90% chance of 1 ppg over replacement based on how I look at things.
(Note: I don't always do the math on these things, sometimes its more of a gut feeling, but I do try to keep these types of numbers in mind when coming up with a player's value.)
For example, WRs who put up 12 PPG are pretty easy to find in my experience. So a solid veteran that puts up 13 PPG, while definitely of some value, is usually not the type of guy I value real highly and pursue. I would rather have the hit or miss guy with a 25% chance of 16 or 17 PPG. Because a 25% chance at 5 ppg over replacement is worth more than a 90% chance of 1 ppg over replacement based on how I look at things.
(Note: I don't always do the math on these things, sometimes its more of a gut feeling, but I do try to keep these types of numbers in mind when coming up with a player's value.)
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I'm not personally arguing that Tebow is elite if that's what you're asking...If you are arguing over whether his production so far is "elite" or not, its just a numerical fact that it has been. As I said, in a small sample size he has been right at or near the top of the heap.
In my league's scoring (which is the most standard scoring there is), he has put up 23, 26, 31 and 24 points in his 4 career starts. That is an average of about 26 ppg.
To put that in context, Tom Brady averaged 21 PPG in 2010 with his 3900 yard 36 TD, 4 INT season.
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
I do not disagree with this sort of methodology but when I choose a dynasty player, relying on his youth as being an upside, I also try to consider the plausibility of him actually playing the position that I am drafting him for, in the foreseeable future.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Jackon's value is solid, even in dynasty formats. I would have to check, but I am pretty sure Jackson is on pace for well over 150 VBD points this season. I have established 2.75 years as my baseline for RB duration (meaning, if I took the top 30 RBs and projected how many years I think they have left at above baseline level, the average is 2.75). Jackson is playing on borrowed time, so it is very tricky for me to put a number on him. For instance, I don't project any RB not currently producing in their very late 20s, early 30s, to be able to do so. Obviously, Jackson has 0.5 years (the rest of this season) at the very least. I feel comfortable projecting one more season of above baseline play for him, so that puts the number at 1.5 years. For the duration of the season, Jackson should produce 60-70+ VBD points, including playoffs. If he retired after the season, he would be as valuable (in a vacuum) as a player that could offer 21.8 VBD points for the baseline career of 2.75 seasons. That equates to a low end RB2, that you could rely on, week in, week out to start for his team. That is certainly worth a late first rounder. That doesn't even count the potential that Jackson could do it again next season. This is just a raw VORP valuation, and the missing variable here is the average raw VORP of a player drafted in the 10-12 range, which I haven't done yet. So it is not an exact science. It is also in a vacuum, so a team that competing would need to weigh the current seasons production more heavily than future seasons, adding to Jackson's value. If I was starting a baseline RB2, was competing this season, and could get Jackson for a pick even in the 8-10 range, I would gladly do so. The VORP he would add to a team for the rest of the season would be huge.'Max Power said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
My claim that Tebow produces at an elite level, is strictly a mathmatical one. When he is on the field, he is the most productive fantasy QB in the league. If I thought he would start for even 4 seasons, he would be a top 3-5 QB. I share every concern you have, which is why he is not a QB1. The thing about the QB position is that there is very little seperation in value/points scored once we are out of the top 5-6 guys. Once we are in the 12-17 range, it is a jumbled mess. You would have to feel comfortable with Ponder starting AND being a top 12 QB for him to have ANY VORP. I am not, so he doesn't have that value to me.'pittstownkiller said:
This year is a bit different, with so many QBs going in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft, but guys like Ponder, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford, Sanchez, Freeman etc. come out every year and can be had in the late first to the late 2nd round of rookie startups. A guy like Tebow, who even offers the the potential to add 7-8 points a game on the ground, does not. Of course Cam came out this year, but aside from him, they are rare.
Tebow is a gamble, but fantasy teams can afford to gamble at the QB spot. Starting QBs can be had for nothing, because most of them don't offer advantage or VORP. So, guys that potentially can, should be valued above safer players with lesser potential, in my opinion.
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
Interesting and thanks for taking the time to explain your point of view. To paraphrase your point, to make sure that I am understanding you correctly, your stating: I would have to believe that beyond Ponder showing good poise and reasonable decision making in his very limited NFL career, that he would need an exceptional situation (which MIN is not) and to show rarified ability to compete with the very impressive running ability of Tebow; even though Tebow may be a below average QB when it comes to the real NFL world. Just the promise of Tebow being able to put together a barely competent passing game (far?) outshines the projected ability of Ponder; which might be impressive but most likely still in the point realm of an average QB like a Fitzgerald, or a Henne?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think it is a matter of Bowe not getting respect. There are a great number of talented young WRs in the NFL right now. That said, he will be higher in my next set of rankings. Not because I feel I undervalued him originally, but I have yet to tier or apply VORP studies to the WRs, like I have to the RBs. Something tells me that once I look at the math, guys like Andre, Roddy, and maybe even Fitz will really drop. I will also be dropping Vincent Jackson and potentially Miles Austin.'Phil4 said:
az_prof
Footballguy
I think this is true--what you say about ceiling being under rated. On the other hand, I think you have to factor in injury factor too, especially for a Rushing QB. And so while RQBs give you more points, they also have great injury risk. Not quite sure how to balance the one against the other.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
WR rankings updated.
Thanks for the updated rankings. Personally, I think Dez is rather high, as well as Julio. Greg Jennings seems pretty low to me. I think I'd have found a place for Maclin in a top 15 list. Additionally, I know he is older and might not deserve a top 15 ranking, but as a Steve Smith owner, I couldn't see myself trading him for Stevie Johnson or Vincent Jackson.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for the commentsIn my original post, I had Maclin in the top 15 - I forgot to include Dwayne Bowe. So, he would be #16, right now, in the same tier as Stevie. There is a very good argument for Maclin being in the top 15, being that he is only 23 years old. Perhaps it is a personal bias, but I have his potential or ceiling, lower than those around him. In many situations, Smith is worth more (competing team). In many situations, he has negative value (rebuilding team that could win a game it would normally lose). I just don't see Smith scoring the VBD over the duration of his career that younger options can. One season ending injury to Cam Newton and Smith's value is destroyed - much more than anyone else in the top 15, should they lose a season of value. At 32 years old, he is very close to reaching the end of his career.
Agreed on Smith...it is a pretty good example of how the make-up of your team will greatly impact how you "rank" a player. I think if I were to "rank" players on a clean slate, without regards to my team, they would look a lot different than who I would rather have at a given time.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
As for Dez - the most value (raw VBD) a player will ever have is as a rookie. Meaning, the best time to have acquired Peyton Manning, Ladanian Tomlinson, or Randy Moss would be before they played a game. You then get all of their career VBD. So, once you identify a player with superstar talent, and you are comfortable projecting production to continue for a long period of time, I think you need to rank that player based on your projections.
Many missed out this past season on guys like McCoy, McFadden, Newton, Dez (myself), Wallace et cetera, because they needed to wait and see. Many treat rankings as a lifetime achievement award - they won't value McCoy over Peterson, because of what Peterson HAS done. They won't value Newton over Rivers or Brady because of what Rivers and Brady HAVE done. I prefer to value players based on what they WILL do from that moment on. Once I think a guy is elite, and am comfortable projecting elite production, I act/rank/trade/draft accordingly. I took a lot of flack for taking LeSean McCoy as the #1 overall player in a dynasty draft, because other guys "have done it for years". I don't think people understood that having done it for years does nothing to your future VBD. Now, those posters would gladly trade the older guys for McCoy - they didn't act on what they saw/projected and it cost them.
Many missed out this past season on guys like McCoy, McFadden, Newton, Dez (myself), Wallace et cetera, because they needed to wait and see. Many treat rankings as a lifetime achievement award - they won't value McCoy over Peterson, because of what Peterson HAS done. They won't value Newton over Rivers or Brady because of what Rivers and Brady HAVE done. I prefer to value players based on what they WILL do from that moment on. Once I think a guy is elite, and am comfortable projecting elite production, I act/rank/trade/draft accordingly. I took a lot of flack for taking LeSean McCoy as the #1 overall player in a dynasty draft, because other guys "have done it for years". I don't think people understood that having done it for years does nothing to your future VBD. Now, those posters would gladly trade the older guys for McCoy - they didn't act on what they saw/projected and it cost them.
What they have done in the past is a very useful and relevant data point (actually many data points, depending on how many seasons they have played) if used in the right way, however. I rank Adrian Peterson ahead of McCoy for a variety of reasons and past performance is among them. Peterson has yet to fail in any season or in any situation (something that can not be said of McCoy, at least to some extent). When I watch both Peterson and McCoy play, my eyes tell me that Adrian Peterson is a more talented player. When I combine that talent with the realization that Peterson has succeeded to a high degree several seasons in a row without any failures, it inherently adds value to him.I don't believe it is fruitful to project any non QB out further than 3 years. Too much can change over that period of time to have any level of exactitude (I feel slightly more comfortable doing it for WR's than RB's, but even then I try not to go too much further out). If you can reasonably expect a player to maintain his current level of play for 3 years, and if that current level of play is equal to another player, then it behooves you to include past performance into your analysis. What the past generally tells me is that I will end up right if I choose the player with the track record (again, assuming it is reasonable to expect 3 more years of the same level of play, which is an important distinction). If I am selecting a more unknown commodity over the one with the proven track record, I may end up being right, but me being right only equals the same level of production I could have received from the player with the track record. However, me being wrong means I left an awful lot of value on the table by passing on the player with the track record to instead select the rotten egg.
This same thing led an awful lot of people to jump aboard many bandwagons in the past, only to get badly burned by them. Rashaan Salaam, Anthony Thomas, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, etc... were all players that likely would have been selected ahead of proven veterans (who still had a reasonable expectation to maintain their level of play for the next 3 years) using strictly what you are talking about and all would have been severe mistakes. There are countless more examples beyond just those players. For every Chris Johnson, who inexplicably performs under his expectation while still in his prime years, I can point to 10 young players who had a big season and never again played to that level.
Particularly at running back, the landscape changes much too quickly to bother going out further than 3 years. MJD, who was considered as solid as possible until at least his 30 year old season as recently as last year, is suddenly a deteriorating dynasty prospect. Had we projected him out to his 30 year old season 2 years ago, we would have started badly miscalculating his value as soon as this season (with yet 3-4 more years to go until he reaches 30). My point is that, no matter how young a player is, it rarely ends up being fruitful to project any analysis outside of the current 3 year window. This is what leads me to value Peterson over McCoy. I believe Peterson will perform as good (actually better) than McCoy over the next 3 years. If you value McCoy because his current production will last longer than 3 years and you end up being right, I would be fine with that because in my experience, projecting further than 3 years out will lead you to be wrong more often than you are right and will end up costing you overall value.
I also acknowledge that every so often, a prospect comes along that forces you to ignore any past trends or performances and instead value that player over the proven commodities. This is due to these players having such an obscene and obvious talent level that you don't need any track record to feel comfortable projecting them. In recent memory, Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson are the 2 that come to mind. Perhaps this year Trent Richardson and Andrew Luck will join them?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't see any value in capping the years you project value in. I don't see any value in only looking 3 years into the future, as opposed to the duration of a players career. Using that logic, 23 year old Adrian Peterson is just as valuable as 26 year old Adrian Peterson. In reality, 23 year old Adrian Peterson offers 3 additional years of projected RB1 production. If we used draft picks as the value difference, 23 year old Adrian Peterson is worth 26 year old Adrian Peterson + 3 first round draft picks. That is a big gap in value. Why ignore that?In your example, you rank Peterson of McCoy because AP is more consistent and has a longer track record. Here is why I think that you are wrong, and that McCoy could potentially be worth (almost) 2x Adrain Petersons.
McCoy is currently outscoring Peterson at a good rate. Even if we assume Peterson catches up (a big assumption I wouldn't make in PPR formats) Peterson is 3 years older. Now we need to start projecting how long each player has left. It would be unfair to use my projections alone, so if you have yours, please provide them, but I am comfortable projecting 5 for McCoy (would only be 28) and 3 for Peterson (would be 29). McCoy would DOUBLE the VBD supplied from this point on.
I know that a lot can happen in 5 years, just as I am aware a lot could happen in 5 games. But I think it is a big mistake - one that your league mates can cash in one - to accept a less perfect system, because there is not a perfect one available. It is a pretty fair assumption that a player 3 years younger, of equal talent, will last 3 years longer.
I will lastly say that, of course, a lot of it has to do with individual valuation of players. I think McCoy is an elite talent. If I wasn't sure, his value would suffer because of that, and might make Peterson the more valuable option.
The value is that for every year further out you go, the less exact you can feel about your projections. Once you start reaching season 4 and beyond in the future, particularly at running back, you generally can have as much exactitude and success with predicting by throwing a dart at a dartboard than you can accurately projecting stats.To put significant weight on a players performance 4 years out and beyond is too risky and inexact for my taste. I find that it generally will steer a person towards making incorrect assumptions due to how quickly things change in the NFL on a game by game basis, let alone a season by season basis. In my experience, only the once in a decade type talents can be booked for consistent success year over year for the duration of their career. The rest of the players come and go and disappear far too quickly to put any value on seasons far out into the future (particularly at running back). To use the Peterson -vs- McCoy example, I feel safe projecting McCoy to have another strong year next season. I feel somewhat safe but slightly less so projecting him to have another strong year 2 years out...I feel moderately safe but even less so projecting him to have a strong year 3 years out...suddenly I don't feel safe at all projecting him to have a strong year 4 years out. Too much can change- coaching change, the drafting of another running back to take goal line carries, 3 years of injury opportunities, decline of skills, etc... In the short term these aren't great risks, but every season you add increases the opportunity for all of these (and other) problems to impact his value, making those further seasons significantly less important to factor, at least for me.
Peterson, on the other hand, I feel very safe projecting strong seasons for all 3 years because I feel he is uniquely talented (once in a decade type talent), because his track record is much more established, and because he has dealt with many of the problems noted above and continued to flourish despite them. Since I don't feel safe at all projecting McCoy past year 3 and I feel safer projecting Peterson over the next 3 years than I do McCoy, why would I not value Peterson over McCoy?
I also acknowledge that Peterson is a unique case because I feel he is the type of talent that comes along rarely, which makes this a bit of a silly argument (the equation changes greatly if you replace Ray Rice or MJD with Peterson).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Your argument is tilted in your favor, and doesn't get your point across, because you are operating under the assumption that Adrian Peterson is an exception. Lets take him out of the equation.RBA -23 years old; 1.5 top 5 finishes (including current)RBB - 26 years old; 3 top 5 finishes (currently outside of top 5)Another example, that removes track record form the equation:RBA - 24 years old; 2 top 5 finishes (currently on pace)RBB - 26 years old; 2 top 5 finishes (currently on pace)Assuming you think these two players are equally talented, which would you value more and why?What study has been done to suggest that one should feel comfortable projecting 3 years out, but not 4? Obviously, one would feel more comfortable only projecting 2 years, right? Why not set the mark at 2 years? Or one - one would feel very comfortable then?Pretending that a 24 year old player doesn't have more value - assuming all other aspects are equal - than a 27 year old player is a disservice to your fantasy team and an advantage you surrender to your league mates.
I believe the other poster already mentioned above that he felt it would be different if we weren't discussing AP, but rather someone like Ray Rice. I don't think anyone would argue that when you have two guys valued similarly over the next several years, you take the younger guy. The initial argument came about because we were talking about AP, not RB-A. And even while I would rank the younger guy higher if you have them projected the same over the next several years, I wouldn't hesitate to take a 25-26 year old that I had projected a little better than the 22-23 year old, because I agree with other posters that expecting anything beyond 3 years ahead for a RB is unwise.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
How is it equally wise to project 3 years out for a 23 year old as it is to project 3 years out for a 26 year old? How is it unwise to project a 23 yearold, probowl RB to last longer than 3 years? I think it unwise to be unwilling to account for the production that LeSean McCoy will offer from that point on, when he is the age Adrian Peterson is now.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Hell, if we are only looking 3 years out, Welker has more value than Megatron, right?
I'm interested in the QB rankings as I'm in one keeper league where I can start 2 QBs. I look at Romo as a guy in the 5-8 range, especially if Dez realizes his potential the next two years. I do own both guys.
But I'm more interested in the view on Matt Ryan, who I also picked up in a trade...What's holding him back from being a 4,000-yard passer? With two WRs in the top 15 on this keeper list and an aging Michael Turner, can we expect Ryan to be a 4,000 yard+ passer the next couple years. He'd be entering his 5th year. Brees didn't surpass 4,000 until his 6th year and Brady his 5th. Anyone see Ryan taking it to the next level? I can get a first-round pick out of Ben Roethlisberger this year and could keep Ryan as my third keeper instead if I feel like Ryan's going to pick it up soon.
But I'm more interested in the view on Matt Ryan, who I also picked up in a trade...What's holding him back from being a 4,000-yard passer? With two WRs in the top 15 on this keeper list and an aging Michael Turner, can we expect Ryan to be a 4,000 yard+ passer the next couple years. He'd be entering his 5th year. Brees didn't surpass 4,000 until his 6th year and Brady his 5th. Anyone see Ryan taking it to the next level? I can get a first-round pick out of Ben Roethlisberger this year and could keep Ryan as my third keeper instead if I feel like Ryan's going to pick it up soon.
That wasn't your point, however. Your point was that you should ignore track record and instead focus on what is provided from this day moving forward. My assertion was that track record has shown me that Adrian Peterson has elite, elite, elite talent and that what he has done in the past is enough to increase his value because it makes his future production in the short term more of a likelihood. Since I have stated that I don't believe ANYONE can guess, with any certainty, what a player will do in the long term future, it only further increases Peterson's value to me. If you replace Peterson with Ray Rice, I still feel the same way, just slightly less strong, because the past has shown me that Ray Rice is a very talented player (although less talented than Peterson) and can be counted on for production. I personally feel McCoy will outproduce Rice over the next 3 years, which causes me to rank McCoy higher, but if I felt they were equal, I would prefer Rice to McCoy because Rice's past has shown me more, has given me more data points to reasonably project his next 3 years, and makes me feel safer about him. There are different variations of this that make it an almost impossible exercise as well. For instance, I feel Peterson's decline phase is going to be significantly better than most players due to the obscene talent, while I feel someone like Chris Johnson will decline very quickly because of how speed based his game is. So much of the far out future is so difficult to predict with any exactitude, which is exactly what my point is.To your other point, you are absolutely right that in an ideal world, you should only make roster decisions based on the current season. There is no better way to increase the exactitude of your projections than to only base it on year 1. However, dynasty leagues are setup in such a way that it would be incredibly difficult to completely ignore the future while still achieving success year over year. Thus, we must start looking into the future for players when making projections. I am simply stating that once you reach N+3 (the initial year you are in plus the next 3 years), you have a snowballs chance in heck of accurately predicting anything, making those predictions useless (probably some hyperbole here, but you get the point). There is no study that I can point you to to prove this. Rather, it is simply based on my experience- I can project N well, N+1 pretty well, N+2 somewhat well, and N+3 moderately well at best. After we get to N+4 and beyond? Good luck to me. I can't say what others experiences are, but at the running back position, I'm guessing it is somewhat similar. Why would you factor useless projections, that are at best complete guesses, into the value of a player?
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No because I expect Calvin to outproduce Welker over the next 3 years.Additionally, as I stated in my original post, the 3 year rule isn't one I hold hard to for receivers, who have tended to show more consistency with their performance on a year to year basis than running backs. It's still not to the level of consistency and longevity of QB's, but it is far better than RB's.
Take almost any snapshot of top 10 rbs, then look at them again in 3 years.
Wow, Welker at #6 and ahead of AJ. I guess I could see it in a ppr, but it's a gutsy call- he's on pace to smash all of his career highs (especially TDs), but it is a contract year for him.Where would you have Britt, right outside the top 15?
If you think Welker will be WR1 over the next 3 years, I think it would be wise to rank him as the #1 WR in a dynasty league.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I never suggested track record shouldn't be taken into account. Of course you use track records to determine your future projections of a player. My point is this, once I decide a player is elite, and think he can produce for X seasons, I value him accordingly. The same logic that suggested valuing Adrain Peterson over LT early in AP's career, also suggests valuing McCoy over Peterson now. The ONLY reason Andre Johnson is still ranked in the top 3, is because owners are married to the past. Hell, a very prominant poster here had Randy Moss ranked in the top 12 at the begining of last season, at 32 years old. I think that relectance to change and fluxuate can be taken advantage of. I, myself, had Antonio Gates as the #1 TE at the beginning of last season, before studying VBD,VORP and how it relates to dynasty formats. Once I did, I realized how crazy the concept of a player that old being able to offer the raw VORP of players 5-8 years younger, who are also talented and projected to produce for years. That is why Jimmy Graham is ranked #1. I could wait 5 years, when he has been to 3 probowls and finished as a top TE again and again, but at what cost?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You could have said that to me 4 years ago, had I ranked Peterson over Tomlinson. Or, even farther back, when I took Randy Moss over Jerry Rice. Elite RBs produce beyond the age of 26.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I respect that as your position, or rule of thumb. I think a very basic look at VORP/VBD/history would very quickly prove it wrong, however.Welker 150 VBD/year x3 years = 450 VBDCalvin 140 VBD/year x 8 years = 1,120 VBD
Don't forget to take the present value of future seasons. I'm not sure what percentage you'd discount future seasons though. Also, you have to figure on whether or not Welker is likely to have some value beyond three seasons from now.
You just listed 3 first ballot HOFers, and another that is a possible HOF....and Tomlinson was 28 years old four years ago, and Jerry Rice was 36 when Moss was drafted. FYI--The top 10 RBs in yards for 2008 were: AP (23), Turner (26), Deangelo (25), Portis (27), T Jones (30), Slaton (22), Forte (23), CJ (23), Grant (26), and Tomlinson (29).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Poor examples on my part; I do think the point remains, however. 3 of the 4 players under the age of 24 are still producing VORP, and still have value moving forward. 75%Of those older than 24, only 1 is currently producing VORP. Although, I have no doubt DeAngelo would be in another situation. 40% DeAngelo and Turner have significantly less value than Forte, AP, and CJ, for obvious reasons. Those obvious reasons should have been accounted for. That list does not include MJD, who, if he was not top 10, he was very close. He was also considered an elite young talent at 23 years old. Add him and all of the sudden it looks like a safe bet to project more than 3 years out for 23 year old RB that finish in the top 10.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Here is a list of the players who finished in the top 10 under the age of 25. It seems like a pretty good indicator of future success to me. If you look at those that did it more than once (which McCoy and McFadden are on pace to do) it is close to a lock, when it comes to projecting solid value moving forward.
2010 - Arain Foster, Peyton Hillis, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice (11th)
2009 - CJ, MJD, AP, Ray Rice,
2008 - Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, Steve Slaton
2007 - AP, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, Marian Barber
2006 - Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, MJD
2005 - Clinton Portis
2004 - Domanick Williams, Willis McGahee
2003 - Jamaal Lewis, LT, Clinton Portis
2002 - LT, Clinton Portis, Duece McAllister
2001 - Ahman Green, Shawn Alexander, Ladanian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams
2000 - Edgerin James, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor
2010 - Arain Foster, Peyton Hillis, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice (11th)
2009 - CJ, MJD, AP, Ray Rice,
2008 - Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, Steve Slaton
2007 - AP, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, Marian Barber
2006 - Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, MJD
2005 - Clinton Portis
2004 - Domanick Williams, Willis McGahee
2003 - Jamaal Lewis, LT, Clinton Portis
2002 - LT, Clinton Portis, Duece McAllister
2001 - Ahman Green, Shawn Alexander, Ladanian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams
2000 - Edgerin James, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor
You have 27 individual players listed. Of the 27 players you listed, 15 of them experienced significant drops in value after the years in which they finished in the top 10 within 3 years of that year (and this is even with me leaving Clinton Portis off, who experienced a decline in value of some level when he went from Denver to Washington). I highlighted those players in bold (including the players this year that are on pace to clearly drop).That is a greater than 50% clip and this is with me being generous. To me, this list proves my point precisely- you don't know who is going to get suspended for smoking weed, who is going to tear their acl and effectively force them to change their game, who is simply going to wear down and not be the same player for the rest of their career, or who are the complete flukes and flashes in the pan over the long haul. You have a great shot at projecting it in the short term, but it becomes more difficult the further out you project.
EBF
Footballguy
On a somewhat related note, I traded Ray Rice for Trent Richardson last night. I like Rice a lot and think he's one of the top 2-3 backs in FF right now. I just think Richardson is THAT good. He's the best RB prospect I have seen in the past 4-5 years. ADP was more productive in college, but Richardson is an even better physical specimen.
Crazy as it sounds, he could be the top dynasty RB on my board next September depending on where he lands, though McCoy and Rice are true difference-makers at the moment.
Crazy as it sounds, he could be the top dynasty RB on my board next September depending on where he lands, though McCoy and Rice are true difference-makers at the moment.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
CJ, Charles, Hillis, and Mendenhall should not be on that list. A slow start does not make you a flash in the pan, nor does it mean your long term value took a major hit. I don't think Steven Jackson belongs on that list. He has kept solid value and even provides some moving forward. Clearly not a flash in the pan.
Edge doesn't belong on the list at all. Look at the value he provided afterwards - a lot.
Fred Taylor too. Jamaal Lewis too.
You list is much smaller now. That leaves 7, one of which went crazy, in Williams.
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Personally I think that's a no-brainer trade in an established dynasty league. Richardson is an AD type of lock to be a superstar, those type of guys are very rare.It was amusing to see the Ingram vs Richardson poll during last season. Noting the posters who picked Ingram was a good way to weed out the clueless.
