Someone, please talk me out of this! (1 Viewer)

[jerseyh8r]

Have been spending some time looking at Martz's play-calling from 2003 to 2004. I prefer to look at percentages when projecting. So, this is what I have come up with so far....

From 1999-2004, Martz teams threw 60% of the time, with the variations being at their most extreme in 2002 (64% pass) and 1999 (55% pass). The years when his teams had good defenses were the years he ran the most (1999, and 2001) at 44-45%.

In 2003-2004, when the defense was mid-tier (and still better than Detroit's today) Martz continued to pass near 60% of the time. Of those passing plays, 79% of targets went to WRs, 12% to RBs and 8% to TEs. The most that Holt was targeted was 32% in 2003. WRs caught the passes with 62% efficiency, RBs 74% and TEs 59%. Holt caught 63% of the balls thrown to him, Bruce 57%. These teams never finished with less than 4yds/carry on the ground.

Last season, RWilliams only caught 48% of his targets. The team only avg'd 3.6 yds/carry. Last season, Detroit had only 925 offensive plays from scrimmage. In his last 2 complete seasons with Cincy, Kitna threw an INT once in every 30 attempts.

Do these ideas seem unreasonable??

--The Lions get an additional 50-60 plays this season (3 per game) from the combo of a better offense and Marinelli/Henderson getting a mild improvement from the defense....results in a total of 975 offensive plays

--Just the threat of throwing the ball 60% of the time (coupled with the improved play calling opens the ground game a little bit and the team avgs 4.0 on the ground (they did get 4.2 per carry in 2004, so this would just be a return to previous form)

--Martz continues his play-calling from 2003-2004 and the targets through the air are divided to WRs as outlined earlier (KJones is not Faulk circa 1999/2000)

--Marinelli reels in Martz a bit to yield a 44/56 ratio (rush/pass)

--KJones get 65% of the carries, with the RB2 getting 25% (remaining go to leftover RBs, WRs on end arounds, and QB scrambles

--RWilliams, being the sole legitimate target in the WR corp, sees 30% of targets and benefits from improved QB play and catches 57% of the balls thrown

Those ideas seem legit to me, but if that is the case (without projecting TDs):

--Detroit gains an additional 260+ yds on the ground and 715+ through the air

--Kitna goes 328/546-3500+yds and 18 INT

--KJones gets 279-1115 and 31-182 for almost 1300 total yds

--RWilliams gets 93-1307

Compare these numbers to the FBG projections and KJones mildly outperforms the highest projection for total yds, but RWilliams far exceeds the consensus expectations. I am fairly certain that the numbers seem very realistic considering the numbers I outlined above, but I am willing to be convinced otherwise.

Granted, everyone will have different projections, that is what will separate everyone by mid-season. I guess I am asking for fellow FBGs to find flaws in mine.

ETA: This IS Detroit afterall

 

[Lombardi's Orphan Son]

i like the breakdown you did and am convinced Detroit is the diamond in the rough this year as far as FF numbers go. i would not only love to have RW on my team, but am searching for that #2 WR as well.

-orphan

 

[MLBrandow]

Honestly.... those projections seem spot on to me....

The numbers seem a little high, but the logic is solid, which irks me a bit for a team I don't see winning more than 6 games.

 

[Z-Dog]

My objections are as follows:

1. Can Jon Kitna play QB as well as Kurt Warner or Mark Bulger? Yes, neither of these guys were heralded, but of them have something which Kitna doesn't, as far as I can tell - a big arm, and deep-ball accuracy. If Kitna can't run this offense, which is my belief, all of these projections go down the tubes.

2. Both the playcalling and the success of the offense hinge on having a running back who is a threat both rushing and receiving. I'm not convinced that Kevin Jones is a good fit for this offense.

3. I didn't see your YPA projections, or your YPC projections for RWill.

4. I don't think Kitna's INT numbers with Cincy have a lot of relevance to his INT numbers in this very different offense.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Thanks for your responses, guys. To let yuo know my thoughts, Dog:

1. Can Jon Kitna play QB as well as Kurt Warner or Mark Bulger? Yes, neither of these guys were heralded, but of them have something which Kitna doesn't, as far as I can tell - a big arm, and deep-ball accuracy. If Kitna can't run this offense, which is my belief, all of these projections go down the tubes.

Your concerns are understood, but 2002 and 2003, Kitna avg'd between 6.7-6.9 yds per attempt. Granted, this does not approach Bulger's 8.6 in 2002, but is similar to Bulger's 7.27 in 2003.....you do make a solid point, though. I, for one, think Kitna is a very capable QB in this system.

2. Both the playcalling and the success of the offense hinge on having a running back who is a threat both rushing and receiving. I'm not convinced that Kevin Jones is a good fit for this offense.

I don't think the threat is necessary, as this is an offense that seems to set up the run via the pass, not vice versa. And although I have Jones in a dynasty league, I am not that high on him either. That being said though, I only projected him to get 8% of the targets (of the near 20% that Martz has thrown to RBs in his last 2 full seasons....and without Faulk in his prime)

3. I didn't see your YPA projections, or your YPC projections for RWill.

I don't project yards per attempt b/c it seems a little more abitrary (not that this entire system isn't a little arbitrary already). What I do is project the total number of offensive plays (975) and the rush/pass ratio (44/56) to determine attempts (546 pass att). Then I hypothesize the percentage of targets that each player would receive and the percentage of catches they would make. In the case of RWilliams, I believe he would see 30% (164) of targets and catch 57% (93) of those balls. Based on the per/catch avg of Holt and Bruce for years in the same offense (most importantly, running the same routes), I took and educated guess and gave him 14 yds/catch.

4. I don't think Kitna's INT numbers with Cincy have a lot of relevance to his INT numbers in this very different offense.

It may or may not, I really do not know...but this was the best sampling of his performance that I could find. I do feel that his own INT figures may be hurt with more attempts and trying to get rid of the ball before getting hammered by pressure (which is my primary concern with Kitna this year....he will likely be taking a lot of hits). I do think that his performances with Cincy can at least be indicative of his decision making abilities. Any other means that anyone might use to determine INTs other than atts/INT??

 

[Tick]

There's a Roy Williams thread on the front page of this forum where his projections are discussed. Repeating what I said there, Roy Williams always looks great, but something always goes wrong. He'll get injured or the offense will mysteriously suck, if history holds. I agree that if he ever ran out of excuses, he'd put up monster numbers, but after seeing him disappear for various reasons throughout college and his first two seasons in the NFL, I'll wait until he proves me wrong before projecting him so highly.

That said, I do have him showing a good statistical improvement this season. I just can't justify a top-5 showing based on his past.

 

[-OZ-]

There's a Roy Williams thread on the front page of this forum where his projections are discussed. Repeating what I said there, Roy Williams always looks great, but something always goes wrong. He'll get injured or the offense will mysteriously suck, if history holds. I agree that if he ever ran out of excuses, he'd put up monster numbers, but after seeing him disappear for various reasons throughout college and his first two seasons in the NFL, I'll wait until he proves me wrong before projecting him so highly.

That said, I do have him showing a good statistical improvement this season. I just can't justify a top-5 showing based on his past.

I sort of understand what you're saying, but you're putting way too much weight on his first two years. 11 and 12 games, 817 / 8 and 687 / 8 for 1504 / 16 is a very nice start of a career. All Big XII each of his 4 years, tied for the record for most consecutive games with a reception (47). I admit, I didn't watch very closely for awhile, but when did he "disapear"?

 

[jerseyh8r]

There's a Roy Williams thread on the front page of this forum where his projections are discussed.

Apologies if this becomes another RWilliams thread, my intent was more to gauge the overall Lions offense, and if anyone else expects it to slant as heavily to one guy through the ground/air and if not, where do those targets go?

 

[lebowski]

ETA: This IS Detroit afterall

That is the point. It doesn't matter who is coaching this is still Detroit. This last year was supposed to be the coming out of the Lions and look what happened. As a Lion's fan I really like the coaching change and hope for the best this year. But, that is all I will do is hope. Every year I try my best to avoid Lions on my FF football roster. Another side note. As improved as the coaching and QB's are this year they really did not do much to improve there line substantially (which in my opinion is the biggest problem with the Lions).

(Editted for spelling...sorry)

 

[Liquid Tension]

My objections are as follows:

1. Can Jon Kitna play QB as well as Kurt Warner or Mark Bulger? Yes, neither of these guys were heralded, but of them have something which Kitna doesn't, as far as I can tell - a big arm, and deep-ball accuracy. If Kitna can't run this offense, which is my belief, all of these projections go down the tubes.

2. Both the playcalling and the success of the offense hinge on having a

running back who is a threat both rushing and receiving. I'm not convinced that Kevin Jones is a good fit for this offense.

3. I didn't see your YPA projections, or your YPC projections for RWill.

1. Marc Bulger has a weak arm (opposite of strong) but he throws well before a guys break and is very accurate. Warner does not have a canon either.2. Nobody will believe in KJ until he shows it, but he has been working with a jugs machine every day catching balls and the word is he is doing it and is in great shape. Let's not compare him to Marshall, but he surely has the size and speed to be a solid RB in this league.

 

[Z-Dog]

Thanks for your responses, guys. To let yuo know my thoughts, Dog:

1. Can Jon Kitna play QB as well as Kurt Warner or Mark Bulger? Yes, neither of these guys were heralded, but of them have something which Kitna doesn't, as far as I can tell - a big arm, and deep-ball accuracy. If Kitna can't run this offense, which is my belief, all of these projections go down the tubes.

Your concerns are understood, but 2002 and 2003, Kitna avg'd between 6.7-6.9 yds per attempt. Granted, this does not approach Bulger's 8.6 in 2002, but is similar to Bulger's 7.27 in 2003.....you do make a solid point, though. I, for one, think Kitna is a very capable QB in this system.

YPA is not a measure of arm-strength at all. Chad Pennington has a career 7.34 YPA with a high of 7.82. Jeff George had a career 6.96. His career high was 7.52. You tell me who has the stronger arm.YPA is a function of many things, including offensive philosophy, YAC skills among receivers, and particularly, the effectiveness of outlet receivers. Kurt Warner's YPA was in the high 8s and 9s in no small part b/c Marshall Faulk had over 9 ypcatch. Bulger's career low 2003 year, which you cite in what I feel is an inappropriate comparison, coincided with the year in which Faulk played only 11 games b/c of injury, and had under 4 yards per carry and under 7 yards per catch.

If you think Kitna can play in this system that's fine, but it's my belief that Josh McCown is the real QB of the future, and he will be starting by the end of the season. Kitna is purely veteran leadership and insurance in my opinion.

2. Both the playcalling and the success of the offense hinge on having a running back who is a threat both rushing and receiving. I'm not convinced that Kevin Jones is a good fit for this offense.

I don't think the threat is necessary, as this is an offense that seems to set up the run via the pass, not vice versa. And although I have Jones in a dynasty league, I am not that high on him either. That being said though, I only projected him to get 8% of the targets (of the near 20% that Martz has thrown to RBs in his last 2 full seasons....and without Faulk in his prime)

What makes passing 60% of the time work is a high YPA. What makes the high YPA happen is two things - longer routes, and a great outlet who can make plays after catching the ball in the flat. If you don't have a Holmes or Faulk or similar pass-catching threat out of the backfield, you can't make this offense work. The issue then, is not how much of the pie you think Jones is going to get, but whether Detroit has the personell to make the offense tick at all.

3. I didn't see your YPA projections, or your YPC projections for RWill.

I don't project yards per attempt b/c it seems a little more abitrary (not that this entire system isn't a little arbitrary already). What I do is project the total number of offensive plays (975) and the rush/pass ratio (44/56) to determine attempts (546 pass att). Then I hypothesize the percentage of targets that each player would receive and the percentage of catches they would make. In the case of RWilliams, I believe he would see 30% (164) of targets and catch 57% (93) of those balls. Based on the per/catch avg of Holt and Bruce for years in the same offense (most importantly, running the same routes), I took and educated guess and gave him 14 yds/catch.

So what you're saying is that if you apply the numbers of St. Louis' historic offensive juggernaut to Detroit, you wind up projecting hall-of-fame passing stats for Detroit's offense?

4. I don't think Kitna's INT numbers with Cincy have a lot of relevance to his INT numbers in this very different offense.

It may or may not, I really do not know...but this was the best sampling of his performance that I could find. I do feel that his own INT figures may be hurt with more attempts and trying to get rid of the ball before getting hammered by pressure (which is my primary concern with Kitna this year....he will likely be taking a lot of hits). I do think that his performances with Cincy can at least be indicative of his decision making abilities. Any other means that anyone might use to determine INTs other than atts/INT??

atts/INT is a starting point, but you have to modify it too. In CIN, Kitna was playing in a system that is very different from the one he's going to play in. I suspect that he will have more picks.

 

[Tick]

There's a Roy Williams thread on the front page of this forum where his projections are discussed. Repeating what I said there, Roy Williams always looks great, but something always goes wrong. He'll get injured or the offense will mysteriously suck, if history holds. I agree that if he ever ran out of excuses, he'd put up monster numbers, but after seeing him disappear for various reasons throughout college and his first two seasons in the NFL, I'll wait until he proves me wrong before projecting him so highly.

That said, I do have him showing a good statistical improvement this season. I just can't justify a top-5 showing based on his past.

I sort of understand what you're saying, but you're putting way too much weight on his first two years. 11 and 12 games, 817 / 8 and 687 / 8 for 1504 / 16 is a very nice start of a career. All Big XII each of his 4 years, tied for the record for most consecutive games with a reception (47). I admit, I didn't watch very closely for awhile, but when did he "disapear"?

I'm an Oklahoma fan (but I'm not biased against Texas players - I own Cedric Benson and have owned Ricky a few times in the past). When OU played Texas, Roy was always invisible. I don't know where to find his stats, but I think he had one respectable 7-90-0 game (in a 50-point blowout loss) and that was about it. For a guy as talented as he is, that's no good.Hey, I've got him projected pretty highly this year. I just put a lot of risk on him because I expect something to go wrong.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Again, I thank you for the healthy debate...

YPA is not a measure of arm-strength at all. Chad Pennington has a career 7.34 YPA with a high of 7.82. Jeff George had a career 6.96. His career high was 7.52. You tell me who has the stronger arm.YPA is a function of many things, including offensive philosophy, YAC skills among receivers, and particularly, the effectiveness of outlet receivers. Kurt Warner's YPA was in the high 8s and 9s in no small part b/c Marshall Faulk had over 9 ypcatch. Bulger's career low 2003 year, which you cite in what I feel is an inappropriate comparison, coincided with the year in which Faulk played only 11 games b/c of injury, and had under 4 yards per carry and under 7 yards per catch.If you think Kitna can play in this system that's fine, but it's my belief that Josh McCown is the real QB of the future, and he will be starting by the end of the season. Kitna is purely veteran leadership and insurance in my opinion.

What makes passing 60% of the time work is a high YPA. What makes the high YPA happen is two things - longer routes, and a great outlet who can make plays after catching the ball in the flat. If you don't have a Holmes or Faulk or similar pass-catching threat out of the backfield, you can't make this offense work. The issue then, is not how much of the pie you think Jones is going to get, but whether Detroit has the personell to make the offense tick at all.So what you're saying is that if you apply the numbers of St. Louis' historic offensive juggernaut to Detroit, you wind up projecting hall-of-fame passing stats for Detroit's offense?

I believe I disagree somewhat, and this may be a chicken/egg conversation, or I maybe I am completly wrong. I agree that there are alot of factors that go into the YPA. But I think where we think differently is that I think that the YPC that you see from vintage Faulk/Holmes is that the offensive playcalling spreads the field to create space for them to do their work once they catch the ball and the defense cannot afford to focus on just one player. Putting WR1 and co. down field with longer routes creates more space, holds a safety deep, and very often singles these amazing athletes in space with over-matched LBs. I feel that the RBs in those systems thrived b/c the gameplanning allowed them to thrive, rather than the game-planning thriving simply b/c the RB is too good for it not too. With those thoughts in mind, I don't see the defenses being pressured by this offense as much as I see defenses pressuring them....that is why I am not projecting KJones to see a high percentage of targets.That being said, I only projected RWilliams YPC to be 14 yds b/c he is running the same routes as other players had before him in the same system. I grant you that RAC would certainly aid in this figure, but I also believe Kitna is a good enough QB to hit a guy on the run, rather than make a player catch at a standstill and do something as the defense closes in on him. I have this team currently projected for nearly 500 yds fewer total yards than th St. Louis team from 2003 when Bulger threw as many TDs as INTs and Faulk only avg'd 6.5 YPCatch.I agreem these are the Lions, but what should I change?Lets say that I concede that Kitna gives up more picks, it is hard to tell right now, so I am not thinking that is really worth debating (we can agree to simply take respective shots in the dark on that one). But...---How many offensive plays would you expect the offense to have this season? Last season they had 925, and 912 in 2004. Is Martz and Marinelli good enough to give them an extra 3-4 offensive plays per game? I said yes, and gave them 975 plays.---What do you expect for a rush/pass ratio? I projected 56% pass which would be the highest rate of rushing of a Martz team (at least since 1999).---What percentage of targets would you expect RWilliams to see. I said 30% of overall targets, but I will also include the supporting cast for arguements sake:-------------Williams:30%-------------WR2: 19%-------------WR3: 14%-------------KJones: 8%-------------RB2: 5%-------------TE: 7%-------------Remnants: 17% (including other RBs, WRs, and TE2)***If he doesn't see 30% who gets those targets (notice I didn't say productivity....the percentage of targets would need to go somewhere)---Is it unreasonable for RWilliams to catch 57% of those targets, and what is a reasonable YPC for a Mike Martz system WR1? I think 14 is a fair assessment.PS....the Yanks are pissing me off!!!!

 

[jerseyh8r]

I'm an Oklahoma fan (but I'm not biased against Texas players - I own Cedric Benson and have owned Ricky a few times in the past). When OU played Texas, Roy was always invisible. I don't know where to find his stats, but I think he had one respectable 7-90-0 game (in a 50-point blowout loss) and that was about it. For a guy as talented as he is, that's no good.

Hey, I've got him projected pretty highly this year. I just put a lot of risk on him because I expect something to go wrong.

That's the thing, I agree he is a risk, and I don't like my own projections re: Williams and Jones. Part of the problem is that I already have KJones at the high end of other's projections and if RWilliams doesn't see the targets I currently have projected for him, I think some of those targets go to KJones which would raise my projections for him even higher.I am very unemotional on the subject and have nothing invested in these players. I just want to be sure that I have taken everything into account going into the preseason and I find that the Pool is filled with good perspective's other than my own. These projections are only the first step to help tier the players a little bit before also formulating consistency, injury history, sos and playoff weather to really separate the players I want from those who I consider higher risk with equal/similar projections. But projections are the most important aspect for me and the basis for everything that follows, so I want to be as close as possible going in.

Thanks guys.

 

[Z-Dog]

That being said, I only projected RWilliams YPC to be 14 yds b/c he is running the same routes as other players had before him in the same system. I grant you that RAC would certainly aid in this figure, but I also believe Kitna is a good enough QB to hit a guy on the run, rather than make a player catch at a standstill and do something as the defense closes in on him. I have this team currently projected for nearly 500 yds fewer total yards than th St. Louis team from 2003 when Bulger threw as many TDs as INTs and Faulk only avg'd 6.5 YPCatch.

I agreem these are the Lions, but what should I change?

Lets say that I concede that Kitna gives up more picks, it is hard to tell right now, so I am not thinking that is really worth debating (we can agree to simply take respective shots in the dark on that one). But...

---How many offensive plays would you expect the offense to have this season? Last season they had 925, and 912 in 2004. Is Martz and Marinelli good enough to give them an extra 3-4 offensive plays per game? I said yes, and gave them 975 plays.

---What do you expect for a rush/pass ratio? I projected 56% pass which would be the highest rate of rushing of a Martz team (at least since 1999).

---What percentage of targets would you expect RWilliams to see. I said 30% of overall targets, but I will also include the supporting cast for arguements sake:

-------------Williams:30%

-------------WR2: 19%

-------------WR3: 14%

-------------KJones: 8%

-------------RB2: 5%

-------------TE: 7%

-------------Remnants: 17% (including other RBs, WRs, and TE2)

***If he doesn't see 30% who gets those targets (notice I didn't say productivity....the percentage of targets would need to go somewhere)

---Is it unreasonable for RWilliams to catch 57% of those targets, and what is a reasonable YPC for a Mike Martz system WR1? I think 14 is a fair assessment.

PS....the Yanks are pissing me off!!!!

Like I said, if you take the Rams numbers from the Vermiel/Martz era and apply them to Lions players, you will get funny numbers.

 

[aposulli]

I'm an Oklahoma fan (but I'm not biased against Texas players - I own Cedric Benson and have owned Ricky a few times in the past).  When OU played Texas, Roy was always invisible.  I don't know where to find his stats, but I think he had one respectable 7-90-0 game (in a 50-point blowout loss) and that was about it.  For a guy as talented as he is, that's no good.

Hey, I've got him projected pretty highly this year.  I just put a lot of risk on him because I expect something to go wrong.

That's the thing, I agree he is a risk, and I don't like my own projections re: Williams and Jones. Part of the problem is that I already have KJones at the high end of other's projections and if RWilliams doesn't see the targets I currently have projected for him, I think some of those targets go to KJones which would raise my projections for him even higher.I am very unemotional on the subject and have nothing invested in these players. I just want to be sure that I have taken everything into account going into the preseason and I find that the Pool is filled with good perspective's other than my own. These projections are only the first step to help tier the players a little bit before also formulating consistency, injury history, sos and playoff weather to really separate the players I want from those who I consider higher risk with equal/similar projections. But projections are the most important aspect for me and the basis for everything that follows, so I want to be as close as possible going in.

Thanks guys.

I think the answer is that you are estimating that KJ won't miss any time.Fact is he missed several snaps last year due to minor in-game injuries.

He hasn't done much to shed his durability questions during his time in the league.

Same can be said about Roy.

Simple as that.

 

[red]

in all these detroit, roy, KJ projections when people are trying to factor in the martz factor, i never see mention of st. louis' o-line during their greatest show on turf era....it was one of the best anchored by the best LT in the game at the time...

 

[Z-Dog]

Aside from Pace, the O-line was not spectacular - it was very good, but not legendary.

 

[jerseyh8r]

in all these detroit, roy, KJ projections when people are trying to factor in the martz factor, i never see mention of st. louis' o-line during their greatest show on turf era....it was one of the best anchored by the best LT in the game at the time...

In 2003...the Rams worst overall offensive season under Martz, from which I am deducting 500 total yds and projecting the Lions....the Rams gave up the 4th most sacks in the league.

 

[lebowski]

Aside from Pace, the O-line was not spectacular - it was very good, but not legendary.

Yeah but the Lions O line is TERRRIBLE!

 

[jerseyh8r]

Aside from Pace, the O-line was not spectacular - it was very good, but not legendary.

Yeah but the Lions O line is TERRRIBLE!

It certainly seems that way! One of the worst yd/carry and pass att/sack in entire league last year. The thing is that I think this unit should show significant improvements with the addition of a new staff (including the GB OL coach from the last 5+ years). This unit still has 4/5 starters from the 2004 unit that was top 10 in yds/carry and was 16th in pass att/sack. I don't think they can run as effectively this year as 2004, but the overall play should improve with this unit.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Jersey, I feel you're pain here. You have posted all your percentages of targets, plays, etc., hoping for someone to offer their thoughts on your percentages, but instead you are getting nothing but reasons why Detroit is gonna suck. I haven't delved deep enough into DET to do my projections yet, but for the love of god, for those of you that are replying, Jersey wants the following:

- The % of targets Roy will get

- The % of targets Roy will catch

- Roy's YPC

- The pass/run ratio of DET this year

- The # of offensive plays by DET this year

No one has offered these numbers to him. I'll be the first to do so, but as i said, i haven't studied the Lions yet, so these are just a quick go at it.

- 28% targets for Roy (was targeted 94 times last year in DET's 520 attempts; that is only 18%, but he did miss 3 games)

- 50% catches for Roy (he was 48% last year)

- 15.2 YPC (he was 15.3 in 2004 and 15.1 in 2005)

- 60/40 pass/run ratio (DET was 58/42 last year without Martz, so this is reasonable)

- I'll go with you and say 975 offensive plays by DET

If you account for 35 sacks, by my calculations, this puts Roy at 79 catches and 1200 yards.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Jersey, I feel you're pain here. You have posted all your percentages of targets, plays, etc., hoping for someone to offer their thoughts on your percentages, but instead you are getting nothing but reasons why Detroit is gonna suck. I haven't delved deep enough into DET to do my projections yet, but for the love of god, for those of you that are replying, Jersey wants the following:

- The % of targets Roy will get

- The % of targets Roy will catch

- Roy's YPC

- The pass/run ratio of DET this year

- The # of offensive plays by DET this year

No one has offered these numbers to him. I'll be the first to do so, but as i said, i haven't studied the Lions yet, so these are just a quick go at it.

- 28% targets for Roy (was targeted 94 times last year in DET's 520 attempts; that is only 18%, but he did miss 3 games)

- 50% catches for Roy (he was 48% last year)

- 15.2 YPC (he was 15.3 in 2004 and 15.1 in 2005)

- 60/40 pass/run ratio (DET was 58/42 last year without Martz, so this is reasonable)

- I'll go with you and say 975 offensive plays by DET

If you account for 35 sacks, by my calculations, this puts Roy at 79 catches and 1200 yards.

Thanks for your impressions....in the end, we are only off by approx. 100 yds and 16 receptions, which is accounted for by your estimation of a 50% catch rate. It seems as though that may be where the biggest change may come into play with my own projections. I actually just finished looking at 2004 for RWilliams, and he only caught 47% of his targets that year as well. The problem is determining how much to attribute those numbers to the QB play, which should improve, or RWilliams dropping balls.I have done my best and have been unable to stats for drops on a yearly basis. Anyone know where I can find that (if it is right under my nose, I apologize)??

TIA

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

Uhmm, what if the head coach wants to run the ball more and instructs Martz that's the style he'd like to employ? Is that even possible?

 

[-OZ-]

Uhmm, what if the head coach wants to run the ball more and instructs Martz that's the style he'd like to employ? Is that even possible?

possible, but given the HC's background / experience, I find this unlikely. They'll talk I'm sure, but at the end of the day, Martz will have a lot of say here.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Uhmm, what if the head coach wants to run the ball more and instructs Martz that's the style he'd like to employ? Is that even possible?

possible, but given the HC's background / experience, I find this unlikely. They'll talk I'm sure, but at the end of the day, Martz will have a lot of say here.

I agree....if you tell Martz to run the ball 48-50% of the time, you are not getting Mike Martz as your OC . Especially after being a HC for years, I can only see Martz taking this position with the understanding he gets to run HIS offense. Besides, Marinelli was a part of some very successful teams in TB that threw alot more than they ran and still won a lot of games (including a SB), so I don't see him imposing his will too greatly to try to run more than Martz has in the past.Just my though

 

[MLBrandow]

I agree....if you tell Martz to run the ball 48-50% of the time, you are not getting Mike Martz as your OC . Especially after being a HC for years, I can only see Martz taking this position with the understanding he gets to run HIS offense. Besides, Marinelli was a part of some very successful teams in TB that threw alot more than they ran and still won a lot of games (including a SB), so I don't see him imposing his will too greatly to try to run more than Martz has in the past.

Just my though

 

[H8fulHuck]

Uhmm, what if the head coach wants to run the ball more and instructs Martz that's the style he'd like to employ? Is that even possible?

Uhmm...no.Detroit has vested HEAVILY in their #1 WR picks over the last several years. They went out and got the HC most likely to tap that potential.