SOS 2011 - What I did with far too much time on my hands (1 Viewer)

[matttyl]

The basis here is pretty much based around the premise "if your player did THAT good/bad last year with the schedule of opponents he had, we can expect them to have THESE types of numbers this year with this schedule of opponents."

The biggest thing that jumps completely off the page with his post is that the AFC West (Oakland, San Diego, Denver and Kansas City) will take a HUGE hit this year.

The reason is that the AFC West teams last year played the AFC South and the NFC West (aka Indy, Ten., Jax, Houston, St. Louis, San Fran, Arizona and Seattle). This year they will play the AFC East and NFC North.

For reference, here is the breakdown of each division's defensive strength for yards allowed in 2010, and it's average -

AFC East - Buf, Miami, NE, NYJ - #3, #6, #24, #25 (average 14.5)

AFC North - Balt, Cin, Cle, Pitts - #2, #10, #15, #22 (average 12.3)

AFC South - Hou, Indy, Jax, Ten - #30, #28, #26, #20 (average 26)

AFC West - Oak, Den, KC, SD - #1, #32, #11, #14 (average 14.5)

NFC East - Wash, NYG, Philly, Dal - #7, #12, #23, #31 (average 18.3)

NFC North - Minn, Det, GB, Chi - #5, #8, #9, #21 (average 10.8) Detroit vastly improved DL

NFC South - TB, Atl, Car, NO - #4, #16, #17, #18 (average 11.3)

NFC West - STL, Ari, SF, Sea - #19, #27, #29, #13 (average 22)

So last year AFC West teams played BY FAR the two easiest divisions, and the only divisions who's average defense was ranked lower than 20th. This year they will play the HARDEST division in the NFL and the second HARDEST division in the AFC (which is actually tied for the second hardest division in the conference with their own).

The next hardest hit division - the AFC South! Last year they played the NFC East (2nd easiest in conference, 3rd easiest in league) and the AFC West (2nd easiest in conference). This year they play the AFC North (HARDEST in that conference) and the NFC South (SECOND HARDEST division in the league)!!

Players most affected by this SOS (with my league's rankings, only listing top 20 at each position)-

#4 QB Rivers, #12 QB Cassel, #14 QB Orton (or Tebow should he get the nod), #1 QB P Manning, #7 QB Schaub, #16 QB Garrard (he's getting replaced anyway)

#1 RB Foster, #3 RB C Johnson, #4 RB McFadden, #5 RB Charles, #12 RB MJD (injury plagued season, too), #19 RB Tolbert, #20 RB Moreno

#1 WR Bowe, #2 WR Lloyd, #7 WR Andre Johnson, #9 WR R Wayne, #20 WR Ford (return yards)

#2 TE Gates, #4 TE Lewis, #7 TE Z Miller, #11 TE Tamme (or the guy he replaced, Clark), #16 TE Dreesseen (or the guy he replaced, O Daniels), #20 TE Moeaki

Now, before you deny all of this, as yourself who you feel were the "breakout" players from 2010 who VASTLY outperformed expectations.....Cassel, Orton, Foster, McFadden, Charles (honestly, I was thinking borderline top 10), Tolbert?!, Bowe, Lloyd, Ford, M Lewis, Tamme......don't you find it odd that ALL of them came from the same 2 divisions with very similarly easy schedules outside their own division?

On the flip side, if certain divisions have harder schedules this year, others must have easier ones. So, who would those be? Who will play these easy divisions next year?

The easiest division from 2010, the AFC South, will play the AFC North and the NFC South.

The second easiest division from 2010, the NFC West, will play the NFC East and the AFC North.

That's right sports fans, the AFC North will play the two easiest divisions (from 2010) in the entire league in 2011!!! That's the same schedule that McFadden, Moreno (when healthy), Charles, Lloyd and Bowe all blew up against last year!!! Big upgrade to Rice and Mendy!!! Last year they were RBs #10 and #11 (in my league) playing the AFC East (HARDEST division other than their own in conference) and the NFC South (2nd HARDEST in the league)!! Replace those with BY FAR the two EASIEST divisions in the entire league, both top 10 this year, maybe 1 in the top 5!!!

 

[matttyl]

I'm surprised that I haven't gotten a single response to this topic, I think it's very telling. I know it might be a bit of a hard read as it was actually something I posted specifically on my league's page in an effort to "bash" another owner. He's got Foster and Moreno as his 2 top RBs, and I've got Rice and Mendy.

Initially after reading this, he had the same reaction that I'm sure many of you have (if you read the above), which was - "yeah, but team defenses change so much from year to year so you can't really depend on having an easy schedule based on the previous year's stats." I thought about it for a while and tried to come up with something to come back at him. Here's what I came up with, and I think it makes a very, very valid argument. Again, it's a cut and paste from my league with specifics about players we each have, but the idea still holds true -

The numbers I have above are averages for an entire DIVISION, not for any particular TEAM which your argument is based on. In order for the AFC South to not be the weakest overall division defensively would mean that Indy AND Houston AND Jax AND Tennessee EACH improve, or at least 3 of them. I mean, if 2 of them improve, and 2 of them decline, their average will be pretty much the same, and they will still be the weakest DIVISION. Of course each and every NFL team won't have the exact same defensive rank that they did last year, some will go up and some will go down. I highly doubt any single one will go "worst to first", or more than 2-3 teams will move 15 or so spots in one year, but there will be improvement and declines by each TEAM. That said, I think DIVISION ranks will all be very similar. We can see this from comparing 2009 numbers to 2010 numbers.

Ok, follow me here, if you look above at the 2010 average defense in a division, and rank them from best to worst, you'd have...

#1 - NFC North with #10.8 average defense

#2 - NFC South with #11.3 average defense

#3 - AFC North with #12.3 average defense

#4/#5 - AFC East and AFC West with #14.5 average defense

#6 - NFC East with #18.3 average defense

#7 - NFC West with #22 average defense

#8 - AFC South with #26 average defense

If you go back and look at the 2009 numbers for the divisions (in their 2010 order, but with 2009 ranking), you get -

#4 NFC North (#2, #6, #17, #32) average #14.2

#6 NFC South (#8, #21, #25, #27) average #20.2

#2 AFC North (#3, #4, #5, #31) average #10.7

#3 AFC East (#1, #11, #19, #22) average #13.2

#5 AFC West (#7, #16, #26, #30) average #19.7

#1 NFC East (#9, #10, #12, #13) average #8.5

#8 NFC West (#15, #20, #24, #29) average #22

#7 AFC South (#13, #18, #23, #28) average #20.5

So, the two weakest division in 2009 were again the two weakest divisions in 2010, they just switched places. In fact, the AFC West had the EXACT SAME AVERAGE defense!

The NFC North's average defense dropped only by an average of 3.4 spots, very small amount.

The AFC North's average defense went up by an average of 1.6 spots, again very small.

The AFC East's average defense dropped by an average of 1.3 spots, even smaller!

By in large, DIVISION rankings don't move all that much. Sure a few did, but no worst to first or the other way around. 3 of the top 4 remained, 3 of the bottom 4 remained. Aside from the NFC East and South kinda switching places, each DIVISION was very close to where it was the year before.

You then go on to say that this "sure is not going to tell you who the next Foster or Charles is going to be or Brandon Lloyd". Really?! Again, who did Charles play outside of his division in 2010? That would be the TWO WEAKEST DIVISIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR!! Same thing with Lloyd!!!! Had I done this same exact exercise last year, I would have seen that players in the AFC West would have a very easy schedule in 2010 - and maybe I would have hit on Lloyd or Ford or Orton as a free agent, or traded for McFadden, or not traded Z Miller or Moreno or Charles or Bowe. Don't you find it at least a little bit odd that each of those players all had career years out of the same division?!?!

So fast forward a year - who will play the TWO WEAKEST DIVISION FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR in 2011? That would be players the AFC North. Big upgrade for Big Ben, Mendy, Wallace, Flacco, Boldin, and Rice (let's wait a bit on Cleveland and Cincinnati players as both of those offenses will be in complete rebuild mode).

 

[matttyl]

I then took it a step further with the following post that I think is pretty undeniable. Again, I'm the guy with Rice and Mendy, and he's the one with Foster and Moreno, so I understand that I'm a bit biased. The numbers given are for our scoring system, which isn't "typical", but isn't that far from it (we give reception bonuses at 5 and 8, so not really a PPR, and we give a "big play bonus").

Anyway, without further adieu -

Rice vs. AFC East last year - 5, 12, 7, 18 (average 10.5)

Average against everyone else - 14.4

So it's obvious that the AFC East matchups last year hurt Rice's overall performance, this year replace that with the easiest division in the NFL.

Mendy vs. AFC East last year - 3, 5, 23, 19 (includes his 2 worst games) (average 12.5)

Average against everyone else - 14.6

So it's obvious that the AFC East matchups last year hurt Mendy's overall performance, this year replace that with the easiest division in the NFL.

Foster vs. AFC West last year - 37, 22, 34, 19 (includes 2 best games outside own division) (average 28)

Average against everyone else - 20.4

So it's obvious that the AFC West matchups last year HELPED Foster's overall performance, this year replace that with the 2nd hardest division in the NFL.

Moreno vs. NFC West last year - 17, 5, 16, 19 (includes 3 best game outside own division) (average 14.25)

Average against everyone else - 11.7

So it's obvious that the NFC West matchups last year HELPED Moreno's overall performance, this year replace that with the hardest division in the NFL.

 

[jacobo_moses]

Great work man. Much appreciated.

 

[matttyl]

Great work man. Much appreciated.

No problem, just wanted to help a few guys on here much like I've been helped by this site time after time.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Awesome post. If there was no lockout I'd be more excited, that is probably why not too many responses.

 

[matttyl]

Awesome post. If there was no lockout I'd be more excited, that is probably why not too many responses.

True that.

 

[WVU Alum]

That was a hell of a lot to digest and my brain hurts. So, go AFC North in redrafts? Got it.

 

[matttyl]

That was a hell of a lot to digest and my brain hurts. So, go AFC North in redrafts? Got it.

I would make a joke at you being a WVU alum, but my girlfriend would hurt me as her brother and sister both went to, and graduated from there. Go Mountaineers! I make it up there for a few games a year, I think this year will be Pitt and LSU.Yeah, you got the basis of it. The idea is that there were so many players in the AFC West last year that had complete breakout years (Rivers, Gates PPG, McFadden, Ford esp. w/ return yards, Z Miller, Orton, Lloyd, Moreno PPG, Charles, Bowe, Cassel) and after looking at why, I think it has a lot to due with the relatively lax out of division schedule they had. That same lax out of division schedule this year will be enjoyed by players in the AFC North (and I'm just lucky enough to have my two big RBs out of that division).

 

[Jeff Haseley]

Great post Matttyl. Thanks for sharing. Can you post the data & rankings for each division for 2011? For example... If the AFC North is ranked #1, how are the other 7 divisions ranked?

#1 AFC North

#2 ??

#3 ??

and so on....

 

[Wadsworth]

Thanks for posting. Don't let the lack of response fool you, I'm sure a lot of people are reading and planning on using this information. Personally, I read all of it but the labor situation has me in such a funk I'm not doing much work on football.

 

[matttyl]

Great post Matttyl. Thanks for sharing. Can you post the data & rankings for each division for 2011? For example... If the AFC North is ranked #1, how are the other 7 divisions ranked? #1 AFC North#2 ??#3 ??and so on....

Working on it, and will have it up in a day or so.

 

[DexterDew]

i appreciate all the work you put into researching and posting here! I am a big proponent in SOS in redraft leagues, especially during the first five weeks and playoffs so I would delve into your #'s even more if there was no lockout (this would probably garner more responses as we are in limbo until Free Agency)

 

[Rylenol]

Great stuff. I too have noticed that Mendy is being highlighted by multiple fantasy sources for having an easy schedule.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

Great post Matttyl. Thanks for sharing. Can you post the data & rankings for each division for 2011? For example... If the AFC North is ranked #1, how are the other 7 divisions ranked? #1 AFC North#2 ??#3 ??and so on....

Working on it, and will have it up in a day or so.

Great. If you really wanted to delve deeper and provide more specific stats data, you could also rank SOS defense vs. the pass and the run.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I think this is some pretty good stuff and even though many of us won't really admit it, we do take a look at this stuff.....it seemed like after awhile last year, that almost half the posts included "and he gets to play the NFC West" or something like that....I am one of the the biggest KC fans around and I know every player has value, but I will be staying pretty far away from any Chief players this year not named Charles....Cassel/Bowe benefited greatly from the schedule last year.....

 

[eaglesfan7]

I see Bowes touchdowns dropping obviously but his catches and yards increasing as they play from behind often this upcoming season. I'm staying away from Charles because of the schedule and he's overvalued right now.

 

[matttyl]

Ok, if you're still with me, I greatly appreciate your tenacity, and I promise to at least attempt to reward it. As requested above by Jeff Haseley (who I feel is far too high on Murray in Dallas and Hankerson in DC - and I'm a Skins fan) I have followed the lead down the rabbit hole to see what I can find....

As mentioned above, the AFC North will have the easiest out of division (and in if you want to be technical about it - in conference with teams of the same division ranking) schedule. But who's next? Keep in mind that these games against these particular divisions accounts for half of a team's total schedule (and over half of it if you only play weeks 1-16).

Here goes...

#1 - The AFC North will play the AFC South and NFC West - average defensive rank #24

#2 - The NFC South will play the AFC South and the NFC North - average defensive rank #18.4

#3 - The NFC East will play the AFC East and the NFC West - average defensive rank #18.3

#4 - The AFC East will play the AFC West and the NFC East - average defensive rank #16.4

#5 - The NFC West will play the AFC North and the NFC East - average defensive rank #15.3

#6 - The NFC North will play the AFC West and the NFC South - average defensive rank #12.9

#7 - The AFC West will play the AFC East and the NFC North - average defensive rank #12.7

#8 - The AFC South will play the AFC North and NFC South - average defensive rank #11.8

You'll see that the AFC North is "head and shoulders" above the others. After that it gets a little murky. Example - The NFC South technically has the 2nd easiest, but that's with the single hardest division on their schedule, the NFC North (as well as actually being in the 2nd hardest division).

 

[matttyl]

And if you're still with me after all this, you're in for the big payoff, and that's comparing my above post with the average defense they had to face in 2010, and seeing how much easier or harder of a time they will have this year with their out of division (and in conference games with teams having the same division rank). Whew...that was a mouthful. (twss)

In 2010 (ranked from hardest to easiest)...

The AFC East played the AFC North and the NFC North - average defensive rank #11.6

The AFC North played the AFC East and the NFC South - average defensive rank #12.9

The NFC West played the AFC West and the NFC South - average defensive rank #12.9

The NFC North played the AFC East and the NFC East - average defensive rank #16.4

The AFC South played the AFC West and the NFC East - average defensive rank #16.4

The NFC South played the AFC North and the NFC West - average defensive rank #17.2

The NFC East played the AFC South and the NFC North - average defensive rank #18.4

The AFC West played the AFC South and the NFC West - average defensive rank #24

Again, this shows that players in the AFC West should have had better than expected seasons (evidenced by Bowe, Lloyd, McFadden Z Miller, Rivers, Charles, Moreno), while players in the AFC East maybe should have struggled a bit (F Jax' and Marshall's lack of TDs comes to mind, Sanchez struggled statistically, Miami had a QB rotation and no running game) - and players in the AFC North and NFC West may not have lived up to expectations (Rice, Mendy, Chad, Palmer, Vernon, Beanie, Fitz, Arizona QBs).

Anyway, for my final act, how about a comparison of the average defensive ranks faced outside of division (and in conference with teams finishing with the same division ranking) in 2010 vs 2011

AFC North goes from #12.9 to #24 - +11.1

AFC East goes from #11.6 to #16.4 - +4.8

NFC West goes from #12.9 to #15.3 - +2.4

NFC South goes from #17.2 to #18.4 - +1.2

NFC East goes from #18.4 to #18.3 - -.1

NFC North goes from #16.4 to #12.9 - -3.5

AFC South goes from #16.4 to #11.8 - -4.6

AFC West goes from #24 to #12.7 - -11.3

WOW!!! If you've got players in the AFC West, SELL!!! If you are looking to buy, look no further than the AFC North!!

Honestly, I didn't know what I would find out doing this exercise, but this is EXTREMELY TELLING if you ask me. The average out of division defense that AFC North teams are going to play this year is SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER than the ones they faced last year, and the average out of division defense that AFC West teams are gong to play this year is SIGNIFICANTLY HARDER than the ones they faced last year.

 

[JFurby]

First of all, great analysis. I tend to breeze over anything with strength of schedule at the beginning of the year since league parity typically rearranges actual strength of schedule pretty quickly into the season as new teams rise and fall. However, I give your analysis more weight for two main reasons.

First, you are grouping by divisions in your analysis. The overall SOS a division is going to be less volatile than individual teams, since many of the surprise teams and disappointment teams happen within a division.

Second, I think that last year's standings are a better predictor of this year's final standings than in typical non-labor dispute years. Good teams from last year have remained stable in coaching, personnel, playbooks, etc while bad teams do not have the chance to learn new playbooks, acquire new talent, practice new plays, etc. I think this makes using last year's stats much more relevant than in previous years.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

mattyl -

Very good and interesting analysis. It's the type of info that should absolutely be used for decisions on players who are close, at a minimum as a very strong tie-breaker.

 

[DexterDew]

Great Job!

Now i will temper your enthusiasm just a bit because if you are going to load up your rosters with Bengals and Browns, you do have to face Pitt and Balt a total of four time. But I could see how this could easily bump up a Rice and Mendenhall... the converse being how this may hurt a Matthews/McFadden/Charles a bit

 

[matttyl]

Great Job!Now i will temper your enthusiasm just a bit because if you are going to load up your rosters with Bengals and Browns, you do have to face Pitt and Balt a total of four time. But I could see how this could easily bump up a Rice and Mendenhall... the converse being how this may hurt a Matthews/McFadden/Charles a bit

Yeah, wasn't really thinking of going after Cincinnati or Cleveland players, as both of those offenses are going through a bit of a rebound, and each has 4 games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. On the other hand, Baltimore and Pittsburgh players only have 2 games against only the other (meaning just because Rice is in the AFC North, he doesn't have to play the Baltimore defense twice, obviously).I don't think it will hurt Mathews much, is he really being viewed as a strong #2RB right now anyway?It will really hurt Moreno and McFadden in my opinion. Just look at McFadden's big games last year outside of his division - 150+ yards from scrimmage OR 100+ yards from scrimmage and a TD against - Titans, Rams, Cardinals, and Jags along with 100+ yards from scrimmage against the Texans and Seahawks. Do you really think he'll have that much success against the Packers, Vikings, Bears, Jets, and Dolphins? Each of those teams were top 10 defensively last year. Something's also telling me he won't be beating on the Broncos like a red-headed stepchild next year with Fox running the show.

 

[AcerFC]

Have you gone thru to see how this holds up from year to year. Would you have known about the AFC west from indicators the previous year etc.

 

[matttyl]

Have you gone thru to see how this holds up from year to year. Would you have known about the AFC west from indicators the previous year etc.

The following is cut and pasted from a quote above (which was originally directed at a guy in my league, but the idea still holds true).....you've got to admit, I've got a point here.....You then go on to say that this "sure is not going to tell you who the next Foster or Charles is going to be or Brandon Lloyd". Really?! Again, who did Charles play outside of his division in 2010? That would be the TWO WEAKEST DIVISIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR!! Same thing with Lloyd!!!! Had I done this same exact exercise last year, I would have seen that players in the AFC West would have a very easy schedule in 2010 - and maybe I would have hit on Lloyd or Ford or Orton as a free agent, or traded for McFadden, or not traded Z Miller or Moreno or Charles or Bowe. Don't you find it at least a little bit odd that each of those players all had career years out of the same division?!?!

 

[matttyl]

Have you gone thru to see how this holds up from year to year. Would you have known about the AFC west from indicators the previous year etc.

The following is cut and pasted from a quote above (which was originally directed at a guy in my league, but the idea still holds true).....you've got to admit, I've got a point here.....You then go on to say that this "sure is not going to tell you who the next Foster or Charles is going to be or Brandon Lloyd". Really?! Again, who did Charles play outside of his division in 2010? That would be the TWO WEAKEST DIVISIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR!! Same thing with Lloyd!!!! Had I done this same exact exercise last year, I would have seen that players in the AFC West would have a very easy schedule in 2010 - and maybe I would have hit on Lloyd or Ford or Orton as a free agent, or traded for McFadden, or not traded Z Miller or Moreno or Charles or Bowe. Don't you find it at least a little bit odd that each of those players all had career years out of the same division?!?!

Back to none "cut and paste" comments - In 2010, the AFC West played the two easiest division's defensively from 2009, the AFC South and NFC West (and lets be honest, those two division are never, ever known as strong defensive divisions). Those two divisions remained as the two weakest defensively in 2010, they just switched places but both remained noticeably weaker than all the other divisions. This year, the AFC North has the privilege of playing those same two divisions.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

Matttyl - Great job with this. I am looking forward to explaining my rankings for Murray, Hankerson, Locker, et al. Once the comments feature is available for the rankings, I will gladly state my opinions. This should be added and available soon, I am told.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

 

[bonesman]

You then go on to say that this "sure is not going to tell you who the next Foster or Charles is going to be or Brandon Lloyd". Really?!

Yea, really. The guys you mention this favoring (Mendy, Rice, BigBen, Wallace, Flacco) are already relatively high picks at their position. Charles, Foster, McFadden were round 3-5ish in August mostly. Lloyd was undrafted. Rice and Mendy will be gone in the top 10 this year regardless. I think this exercise helps more in identifying and avoiding potential busts rather than finding breakouts. And I'm not sure why you keep mentioning Z. Miller as a breakout. He had less receptions and yards last year than the year before and only 2 more TDs. Finished 10th best TE in my main league.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Good stuff matttyl

 

[matttyl]

You then go on to say that this "sure is not going to tell you who the next Foster or Charles is going to be or Brandon Lloyd". Really?!

Yea, really. The guys you mention this favoring (Mendy, Rice, BigBen, Wallace, Flacco) are already relatively high picks at their position. Charles, Foster, McFadden were round 3-5ish in August mostly. Lloyd was undrafted. Rice and Mendy will be gone in the top 10 this year regardless. I think this exercise helps more in identifying and avoiding potential busts rather than finding breakouts. And I'm not sure why you keep mentioning Z. Miller as a breakout. He had less receptions and yards last year than the year before and only 2 more TDs. Finished 10th best TE in my main league.

Honestly, I think it does both. Maybe Heath Miller will be a total breakout (meaning back to where he was in '09), maybe E Sanders, maybe even Hillis repeating some of the magic he had last year. I'm just saying maybe you should give a slight bump to anyone in the AFC North when you consider that the average defense they will face this year out of their division will be ranked 11 spots lower. Realize that's like either playing the #4 ranked defense each week you don't face a division opponent, or facing the #15-16 ranked defense. That's huge if you ask me! Same idea in reverse for the AFC West. Instead of facing the #15 ranked defense each week outside of their division, they will face the #4 defense.Also, on Zach Miller, I'll put any TE in the "breakout" category when he had 5 straight games with 0 points, had a new QB, and still finished in the top 10. He was comfortably in the #2 TE spot prior to his injury in week 8.

 

[Go deep]

Good job Matttyl, thanks for sharing.

 

[matttyl]

This might be the "perfect storm" for Mike Wallace. Big Ben should be there for a full year, Ward is declining, 3rd year, and this cake schedule? Add to that Pittsburgh might be trying to move the offense a bit away from Mendy after his recent twitter bomb and subsequent being dropped by sponsors.....he could be in for a huge year!

 

[hook014]

Nice work and black dot for August.

 

[WisWolvrns]

He did just as you suggested and posted it a number of posts above. It did show up as predicted if you did this for 2010 based off of 2009 defensive rankings by division.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

I would love to see something like this for IDP.

 

[matttyl]

I would love to see something like this for IDP.

I'd be happy to do the legwork for it, but I'd have no idea where to start. Do you want your IDP to be facing off against divisions that typically run the ball often so that your LBs will get more tackles and such? And having your DLs facing division that are often sacked? Due to the QB turnover we're likely to see this year, that could change pretty quickly.I'd be happy to do a bit of legwork on it if we can decide just what to look for.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

Ok, follow me here, if you look above at the 2010 average defense in a division, and rank them from best to worst, you'd have...

#1 - NFC North with #10.8 average defense

#2 - NFC South with #11.3 average defense

#3 - AFC North with #12.3 average defense

#4/#5 - AFC East and AFC West with #14.5 average defense

#6 - NFC East with #18.3 average defense

#7 - NFC West with #22 average defense

#8 - AFC South with #26 average defense

If you go back and look at the 2009 numbers for the divisions (in their 2010 order, but with 2009 ranking), you get -

#4 NFC North (#2, #6, #17, #32) average #14.2

#6 NFC South (#8, #21, #25, #27) average #20.2

#2 AFC North (#3, #4, #5, #31) average #10.7

#3 AFC East (#1, #11, #19, #22) average #13.2

#5 AFC West (#7, #16, #26, #30) average #19.7

#1 NFC East (#9, #10, #12, #13) average #8.5

#8 NFC West (#15, #20, #24, #29) average #22

#7 AFC South (#13, #18, #23, #28) average #20.5

This is great stuff. My only issue is that as a numbers guy I know that numbers can say anything you want them to. Trying to predict SOS relies on so many interconnected variables. DEF rank is a nice place to start and I take my hat off to the time and effort you put into this. It certainly raises good points.

One thing I notice off the top: AFC South goes from ave 20.5 in 2009 to ave 26 in 2010. That seems a significant increase and I think a large part might be due to Foster playing these guys twice each. He will still play them twice each this year. I hope you have some time and desire to continue digging into this and refining the approach. (I wish I had the time)

Truly big kudos to you for sharing!!

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

I would love to see something like this for IDP.

I'd be happy to do the legwork for it, but I'd have no idea where to start. Do you want your IDP to be facing off against divisions that typically run the ball often so that your LBs will get more tackles and such? And having your DLs facing division that are often sacked? Due to the QB turnover we're likely to see this year, that could change pretty quickly.I'd be happy to do a bit of legwork on it if we can decide just what to look for.

I'm not sure how to suss it out specifically but for LBs I would think a combo being on a poor offense (more time on the field for D) and going against teams strong in rushing. Tackle heavy safties could be similar. INT heavy DBs might be something like going against teams that turn it over a lot or likely starting rookie QBs.I love the effor you are able to focus on this stuff!!

 

[matttyl]

One thing I notice off the top: AFC South goes from ave 20.5 in 2009 to ave 26 in 2010. That seems a significant increase and I think a large part might be due to Foster playing these guys twice each. He will still play them twice each this year. I hope you have some time and desire to continue digging into this and refining the approach. (I wish I had the time)Truly big kudos to you for sharing!!

Ok, but have you ever thought of the AFC South as being a tough division defensively? I guess that's a big part of my argument. I've ALWAYS thought of the NFC East as being tough defensively, as well as the AFC East and most of the NFC and AFC North. I've NEVER thought of the NFC West or AFC South as being particularly strong defensively, and the numbers bear that out.

 

[matttyl]

On the IDP thing, I would think you'd want your guys going up against STRONGER, not WEAKER offenses, as that would mean your guys are on the field more and will be able to make more tackles....

I would think, but would need to go back and do some math, that you want guys going up against teams that run more often than not. The issue with that (I would think) is that it's very dependent on the coaching staff and their philosophy, which changes a lot in the NFL.

Defensive strength (again, I think) is more dependent on the actual players on the field. Baltimore has Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. They will always be a very strong defense no matter who their defensive coordinator is.

Looking back at last year, Kansas City had 556 total rushes, up 27% from the 438 they had the year prior. That was due to a new coaching staff and new offensive philosophy. I guess that could be the little * like I have above with the Detroit Lions getting a nice bump in defense this year.

I just think there are far too many things to look into for IDP sake.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

On the IDP thing, I would think you'd want your guys going up against STRONGER, not WEAKER offenses, as that would mean your guys are on the field more and will be able to make more tackles....I would think, but would need to go back and do some math, that you want guys going up against teams that run more often than not. The issue with that (I would think) is that it's very dependent on the coaching staff and their philosophy, which changes a lot in the NFL.Defensive strength (again, I think) is more dependent on the actual players on the field. Baltimore has Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. They will always be a very strong defense no matter who their defensive coordinator is. Looking back at last year, Kansas City had 556 total rushes, up 27% from the 438 they had the year prior. That was due to a new coaching staff and new offensive philosophy. I guess that could be the little * like I have above with the Detroit Lions getting a nice bump in defense this year.I just think there are far too many things to look into for IDP sake.

I'm sorry I wasn't clear. The LBer should play ON A team with a weak offense so the LBer is on the field a lot. They should play AGAINST A team with a strong run game.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

One thing I'd like folks to discuss is how this info correlates to Clayton's SOS on the home page. His numbers indicate only a fair schedule for Rice and a slight decrease from last year. My brain hurts tyring to figure out how these can both be right.

 

[matttyl]

One thing I'd like folks to discuss is how this info correlates to Clayton's SOS on the home page. His numbers indicate only a fair schedule for Rice and a slight decrease from last year. My brain hurts tyring to figure out how these can both be right.

Well, he still has to play Pittsburgh twice a year (the #2 overall defense last year). They also have to play the Jets and San Diego this year due to being the second seed in the AFC North (the #1 and #3 overall defense last year). Those 3 teams were also #1, #3, and #4 against the run specifically. I was just looking at their games against the full 2 divisions this year (AFC South and NFC West) vs last year in my example. It's actually funny that while Pittsburgh WON the AFC North, they will have an "easier schedule" against the other #1 AFC teams - Kansas City and New England.