SOS in 2007 (1 Viewer)

[daveR]

Last year, based mostly on SOS, I predicted Car, Cin, & Jax to be watching the playoffs instead of paticipating. This year, the "bold prediction" has last year's champs out: the Colts don't make it.

Based on 2006 stats, personnel changes, coaching changes, personal observations, and the voices in my head, I tried to quantify each team's probable strengths/weaknesses in the catagories of Passing Offense, Rushing Offense, Passing Defense, and Rushing Defense. I substituted these values into a schedule grid and totaled them for each team. The results are below:

Tm	vRO	vPO	vs Rd	vs Pd	total		Tm	vs O	vs d
Ari	40	41	36	32	149		Ari	81	68
Atl	37	38	37	31	143		Atl	75	68
Bal	38	42	34	35	149		Bal	80	69
Buf	37	43	41	43	164		Buf	80	84
Car	37	37	36	29	139		Car	74	65
Chi	36	36	38	34	144		Chi	72	72
Cin	31	35	38	39	143		Cin	66	77
Cle	34	42	41	38	155		Cle	76	79
Dal	36	39	32	34	141		Dal	75	66
Den	35	28	39	32	134		Den	63	71
Det	36	29	41	38	144		Det	65	79
GB	39	33	37	35	144		GB	72	72
Hou	37	31	40	34	142		Hou	68	74
Ind	37	32	44	35	148		Ind	69	79
Jac	36	32	35	26	129		Jac	68	61
KC	37	34	39	36	146		KC	71	75
Mia	31	41	34	35	141		Mia	72	69
Min	36	33	37	33	139		Min	69	70
NE	35	39	35	38	147		NE	74	73
NO	39	33	38	28	138		NO	72	66
NYG	37	37	34	32	140		NYG	74	66
NYJ	34	36	37	36	143		NYJ	70	73
Oak	40	31	38	36	145		Oak	71	74
Phi	33	38	33	35	139		Phi	71	68
Pit	34	42	38	42	156		Pit	76	80
SD	32	32	40	35	139		SD	64	75
SF	36	39	39	37	151		SF	75	76
Sea	38	40	38	36	152		Sea	78	74
StL	34	38	42	35	149		StL	72	77
TB	37	40	34	28	139		TB	77	62
Ten	40	40	39	32	151		Ten	80	71
Was	33	37	36	35	141		Was	70	71
median	36	37	38	35	146		median	73	73

Based on talent and schedule, the division champs should be: NE, BAL, JAX, SD... PHA,CHI,NO,SEA(?) Wild cards should be: CIN, DEN.... CAR, God knows (based on SOS: min or TB)

That leaves Indy & Pit, both talented teams, on the outside.

Have at it.

 

[nygiants56]

seattle won't win the nfc west.either SF or, gulp,Az will.

Jax won't win anything,either. two words: paper tigers. they have NO QB.

indy wins that division.

 

[Scrap Iron]

 

[daveR]

seattle won't win the nfc west.either SF or, gulp,Az will.Jax won't win anything,either. two words: paper tigers. they have NO QB.indy wins that division.

While I won't quibble with SF, (not Az), I DO think that Jax will take theirs easily. You suggest that they have no QB. I say that Indy has very little aside from a QB (and wr's!).This is a try at posting that table again, outside of a scroll box:

Tm	vRO	vPO	vs Rd	vs Pd	total		Tm	vs O	vs dAri	40	41	36	32	149		Ari	81	68Atl	37	38	37	31	143		Atl	75	68Bal	38	42	34	35	149		Bal	80	69Buf	37	43	41	43	164		Buf	80	84Car	37	37	36	29	139		Car	74	65Chi	36	36	38	34	144		Chi	72	72Cin	31	35	38	39	143		Cin	66	77Cle	34	42	41	38	155		Cle	76	79Dal	36	39	32	34	141		Dal	75	66Den	35	28	39	32	134		Den	63	71Det	36	29	41	38	144		Det	65	79GB	39	33	37	35	144		GB	72	72Hou	37	31	40	34	142		Hou	68	74Ind	37	32	44	35	148		Ind	69	79Jac	36	32	35	26	129		Jac	68	61KC	37	34	39	36	146		KC	71	75Mia	31	41	34	35	141		Mia	72	69Min	36	33	37	33	139		Min	69	70NE	35	39	35	38	147		NE	74	73NO	39	33	38	28	138		NO	72	66NYG	37	37	34	32	140		NYG	74	66NYJ	34	36	37	36	143		NYJ	70	73Oak	40	31	38	36	145		Oak	71	74Phi	33	38	33	35	139		Phi	71	68Pit	34	42	38	42	156		Pit	76	80SD	32	32	40	35	139		SD	64	75SF	36	39	39	37	151		SF	75	76Sea	38	40	38	36	152		Sea	78	74StL	34	38	42	35	149		StL	72	77TB	37	40	34	28	139		TB	77	62Ten	40	40	39	32	151		Ten	80	71Was	33	37	36	35	141		Was	70	71median	36	37	38	35	146		median	73	73

Dang! STill not right! How do you post an excel table?

 

[daveR]

A couple other comments... It looks like a sad year for the Bills -- poor team, rough schedule.

MIA, PIT & Indy have a shot at WC2.

It could be SEA, STL, or SF, but I see Hasslebeck(sp?) coming back strong this year.

The NFC WC2 could be a LOT of teams (DAL,NYG,MIN,TB,GB,SEA,SF,STL) -- they're all pretty even. Should be fun to watch!

Watch out for the Saints passing game -- bump 'em up!

SD defense should stand out.

 

[Brutis]

You are nuts if you think Dallas wont even be a wild card team.

 

[trader jake]

The Colts have that big target on their back this year, the defense is questionable, and the competition for playoff spots in the AFC is brutal, but...

Peyton Manning plays 16 games = Colts make the playoffs

He's that good.

 

[gheemony]

I like the results. Can't make sense of the data. Can you explain what each column represents?

 

[daveR]

You are nuts if you think Dallas wont even be a wild card team.

Cowboys are a good, solid team. They should contend for a WC spot. IMO, though, Philly takes the division. That puts the 'pokes ina multi-way scrap for WC2. You can have 'em & I'll take the "field".

 

[Brutis]

You are nuts if you think Dallas wont even be a wild card team.

Cowboys are a good, solid team. They should contend for a WC spot. IMO, though, Philly takes the division. That puts the 'pokes ina multi-way scrap for WC2. You can have 'em & I'll take the "field".

I dont even think Philly is a better team right now than Dallas. We'll see.

 

[daveR]

I like the results. Can't make sense of the data. Can you explain what each column represents?

Yeah. The columns are the numerical total of each team's opponents over the length of the season. The catagories are (your opponents'...) Passing Offense, Rushing Offense, Passing Defense, Rushing Defense, and at the end, Total Offense and Total Defense.Example: I rated each team's passing offense from 0-4, 0=bad, 2=avg, 4=great. Every time someone plays against Indy, the "vPO" total goes up by 4. That is, a high total indicates that your defense plays good passing teams all year long.

 

[daveR]

You are nuts if you think Dallas wont even be a wild card team.

Cowboys are a good, solid team. They should contend for a WC spot. IMO, though, Philly takes the division. That puts the 'pokes ina multi-way scrap for WC2. You can have 'em & I'll take the "field".

I dont even think Philly is a better team right now than Dallas. We'll see.

You could be right. I don't see either team as Super Bowl contenders, but both pretty darned good.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

The NFC WC2 could be a LOT of teams (DAL,NYG,MIN,TB,GB,SEA,SF,STL) -- they're all pretty even. Should be fun to watch!

Minnesota isn't competing for anything this year. Take them out of that list. Thanks.

 

[MarcO]

seattle won't win the nfc west.either SF or, gulp,Az will.Jax won't win anything,either. two words: paper tigers. they have NO QB.indy wins that division.

Seattle wins the west going away. They won 9 games last year under these circumstances:Hasselback - OUT 4 gamesAlexander - OUT for 6 gamesDjack - OUT for 3 games and a distraction when healthyEngram OUT for 9 gamesBranch - arrived late via tradeO-Line - 4 of 5 projected starters missed at least 4 games.Jeremy Stevens - a head case and a below average blocker Defensive secondary - especially the play of the safeties was terrible last year.This year - Hass and Alexander are healthy, Branch is in camp and in his natural position, Engram is healthy, Hacket has emerged as a solid WR with a year of game experience. While the O-line is still a little banged up they expect to start the season with all projected starters playing. Rob Sims will suprise and Spencer has a year under his belt after being thrust into the starting C position when Tobek went down - he struggled with making the line calls last year. Signed Marcus Pollard to play TE. - better blocker than StevensDEF - signed safeties Deon Grant and Brian Russell; signed DE Patrick Kerney; Darrell Tapp has been outstanding in preseason and camp, The LB corps is one of the best in the league.time will tell but I think you are buying into the SF hype and under estimating the Seahawks. This is an improved and healthier team that took the Bears to the wire in the playoffs... not sure why everyone is so down on them...and yes, I am a homer

 

[428143]

seattle won't win the nfc west.either SF or, gulp,Az will.Jax won't win anything,either. two words: paper tigers. they have NO QB.indy wins that division.

Seattle wins the west going away. They won 9 games last year under these circumstances:Hasselback - OUT 4 gamesAlexander - OUT for 6 gamesDjack - OUT for 3 games and a distraction when healthyEngram OUT for 9 gamesBranch - arrived late via tradeO-Line - 4 of 5 projected starters missed at least 4 games.Jeremy Stevens - a head case and a below average blocker Defensive secondary - especially the play of the safeties was terrible last year.This year - Hass and Alexander are healthy, Branch is in camp and in his natural position, Engram is healthy, Hacket has emerged as a solid WR with a year of game experience. While the O-line is still a little banged up they expect to start the season with all projected starters playing. Rob Sims will suprise and Spencer has a year under his belt after being thrust into the starting C position when Tobek went down - he struggled with making the line calls last year. Signed Marcus Pollard to play TE. - better blocker than StevensDEF - signed safeties Deon Grant and Brian Russell; signed DE Patrick Kerney; Darrell Tapp has been outstanding in preseason and camp, The LB corps is one of the best in the league.time will tell but I think you are buying into the SF hype and under estimating the Seahawks. This is an improved and healthier team that took the Bears to the wire in the playoffs... not sure why everyone is so down on them...and yes, I am a homer

I think you're right on, but what the heck happened in the GB pre-season game?

 

[daveR]

The NFC WC2 could be a LOT of teams (DAL,NYG,MIN,TB,GB,SEA,SF,STL) -- they're all pretty even. Should be fun to watch!

Minnesota isn't competing for anything this year. Take them out of that list. Thanks.

At face value, I agree. They're a tad short talent-wise. On the other hand, this is a SOS thread...

 

[Snotbubbles]

You are nuts if you think Dallas wont even be a wild card team.

Why? I could see them not making the playoffs. They have Tony Romo in their most important offensive position.He started 12 games last year.His first 6 games he threw for 1621 yards, 12 TDs, 5 INTs and the Cowboys went 4-2.His last 6 (including playoffs) he threw for 1436 yards, 7 TDs, 8 INTs and the Cowboys went 2-4.Is it possible that once teams got game film on him they were able to pick up tendencies and more effectively gameplan against him? Who knows. But he'll need to be more like the Romo in his first 6 games, because if he's the Romo in his last 6 games the Cowboys won't make the playoffs.

 

[Snotbubbles]

You are nuts if you think Dallas wont even be a wild card team.

Cowboys are a good, solid team. They should contend for a WC spot. IMO, though, Philly takes the division. That puts the 'pokes ina multi-way scrap for WC2. You can have 'em & I'll take the "field".

I dont even think Philly is a better team right now than Dallas. We'll see.

Why do you think that? What did Dallas do to improve their team? Because Philly beat them twice last year including a dominating performance in Dallas.

 

[anguskahn]

seattle won't win the nfc west.either SF or, gulp,Az will.Jax won't win anything,either. two words: paper tigers. they have NO QB.indy wins that division.

Seattle wins the west going away. They won 9 games last year under these circumstances:Hasselback - OUT 4 gamesAlexander - OUT for 6 gamesDjack - OUT for 3 games and a distraction when healthyEngram OUT for 9 gamesBranch - arrived late via tradeO-Line - 4 of 5 projected starters missed at least 4 games.Jeremy Stevens - a head case and a below average blocker Defensive secondary - especially the play of the safeties was terrible last year.

Seattle will be 7-9 at best this year (but I expect 5-11)Hasselback - Mediocre QB that was decent with weapons but lost them all. DJax is gone. Alexander is done. Lost Krob 2 years ago.Alexander - He's done. Even when he wasnt injured he looked bad. Looks like a Chris Warren style decline to me (not uncommon for 29 yr old RBs)Djack - OUT for 3 games and a distraction when healthy - But still not replaced talent wise.Engram - a warrior that far surpassed anyones expectations but no wonder he missed 9 games...that happens at 34.Branch - Is so over rated since Brady was throwing to him. How has a guy that in 6 years never even had 1000yds so continually talked about?O-Line - never able to replae Hutch. Jones is slowing downJeremy Stevens - Replaced with Pollard...he's Ok but not going to make up for all of the declines on the rest of the team.Defensive secondary - especially the play of the safeties was terrible last year. - And will be again this year.Seattle is in serious decline and will be in last place in the division. Thats how the NFL goes today. You get good and make a Superbowl run then age and lose players to free agency before you start from scratch.