Liquid Tension
Footballguy
This is really for informational purposes without any bold predictions or conclusions from me, but sometimes getting thoughts on paper makes things clearer (or maybe not?)
In looking at the past 4 years (8 Championship games) the largest spread was 5.5 points. This week we have NE giving 13.5 (the spread came out at 14.5) and the Pack giving 7.5 to the Giants (the spread came out at 7).
I did find it interesting that this year both conferences show a larger favorite than any in the previous 4 years? I couldn't get the spreads prior to that but while clearly not breathtaking about NE in their record setting year (one would expect a higher spread than normal) even the Giant GB game being over the 7 mark is not the norm.
Looking at things from a betting perspective:
The home team is in CAPS
2003
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 4) Lost to Carolina 14-3
AFC: NEW ENGLAND (- 3) Beat Indy 24 - 14
2004
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 5.5) Beat Atlanta 27-10
AFC: PITTSBURGH (+3) lost to NE 41-27
2005
AFC: DENVER (- 3) Lost to Pitt 34-17
NFC: SEATTLE (-3.5) Beat Carolina 34-14
2006
NFC: CHICAGO (- 3) Beat NO 39-14
AFC: INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) Beat NE 38-34
The favorite has covered 6 out of the 8 games.
The spread has not made a difference in any of these 8 games, so just going for the winner was the right move. However, with the spreads being larger there is obviously a much greater chance that the favorites could win and not cover
Looking at the other playoff games this year:
The favorite covered only 3 times out of the 8 games. Also, the spread DID matter in two of the 8 games where losing teams covered the spread (Jacksonville and Pitt)
I bet on games every year and have made some nice spare cash...this year I started off the season very poorly 15 wins and 28 losses, but came on extremely strong towards the end (including a perfect 6 for 6 week) having 34 wins and 10 losses making my yearly total 49-38. It is important to note that while 56% is normally barely profitable, I bet some teasers where the odds are in my favor (betting $300 to win $400) for example.
For some reason, in the playoffs I just have not been comfortable betting? I have just been undecided on what the outcome will be and could see either happening. In the 8 games played the only bet I made was on Seattle over Washington. Disclosure, I am a Giant fan and would have bet on the Giants to beat TB, but I also would have bet on Dallas to cover against the Giants, but I rarely allow myself to bet on my team one way or another and just watched my team in the playoffs.
I didn't bet on any game last week as I was paralyzed by analysis...I couldn't tell you the last time that I didn't bet during a playoff week...maybe that says something about me
Is anyone else more confused than normal when betting this playoffs?
I am looking at the large lines and wouldn't be shocked with anything. NE is a better team than the banged up Chargers, but is it improbable that LT2 and even Turner get on to the linebackers of NE? Could more lanes open up with Chambers and Jackson stepping up and Gates always present (if healthy?). If nothing else enough to lose 30-17 and cover? Same on the Giant side, would it be shocking if they covered and only lost by 7 or less or even won? They have a good running team and it will be cold. I think they could lose 24-17 and cover.
BTW the Super Bowl lines would be:
NE -13.5 vs the Giants
NE -10 against GB
GB -3.5 against SD
SD -4 against the Giants
(interesting that the spread of NE against the Giants would be the same as NE against SD this week, yet if SD and the Giants played in the SB SD would be favored by 4)
Any thoughts?
In looking at the past 4 years (8 Championship games) the largest spread was 5.5 points. This week we have NE giving 13.5 (the spread came out at 14.5) and the Pack giving 7.5 to the Giants (the spread came out at 7).
I did find it interesting that this year both conferences show a larger favorite than any in the previous 4 years? I couldn't get the spreads prior to that but while clearly not breathtaking about NE in their record setting year (one would expect a higher spread than normal) even the Giant GB game being over the 7 mark is not the norm.
Looking at things from a betting perspective:
The home team is in CAPS
2003
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 4) Lost to Carolina 14-3
AFC: NEW ENGLAND (- 3) Beat Indy 24 - 14
2004
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 5.5) Beat Atlanta 27-10
AFC: PITTSBURGH (+3) lost to NE 41-27
2005
AFC: DENVER (- 3) Lost to Pitt 34-17
NFC: SEATTLE (-3.5) Beat Carolina 34-14
2006
NFC: CHICAGO (- 3) Beat NO 39-14
AFC: INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) Beat NE 38-34
The favorite has covered 6 out of the 8 games.
The spread has not made a difference in any of these 8 games, so just going for the winner was the right move. However, with the spreads being larger there is obviously a much greater chance that the favorites could win and not cover
Looking at the other playoff games this year:
The favorite covered only 3 times out of the 8 games. Also, the spread DID matter in two of the 8 games where losing teams covered the spread (Jacksonville and Pitt)
I bet on games every year and have made some nice spare cash...this year I started off the season very poorly 15 wins and 28 losses, but came on extremely strong towards the end (including a perfect 6 for 6 week) having 34 wins and 10 losses making my yearly total 49-38. It is important to note that while 56% is normally barely profitable, I bet some teasers where the odds are in my favor (betting $300 to win $400) for example.
For some reason, in the playoffs I just have not been comfortable betting? I have just been undecided on what the outcome will be and could see either happening. In the 8 games played the only bet I made was on Seattle over Washington. Disclosure, I am a Giant fan and would have bet on the Giants to beat TB, but I also would have bet on Dallas to cover against the Giants, but I rarely allow myself to bet on my team one way or another and just watched my team in the playoffs.
I didn't bet on any game last week as I was paralyzed by analysis...I couldn't tell you the last time that I didn't bet during a playoff week...maybe that says something about me

Is anyone else more confused than normal when betting this playoffs?
I am looking at the large lines and wouldn't be shocked with anything. NE is a better team than the banged up Chargers, but is it improbable that LT2 and even Turner get on to the linebackers of NE? Could more lanes open up with Chambers and Jackson stepping up and Gates always present (if healthy?). If nothing else enough to lose 30-17 and cover? Same on the Giant side, would it be shocking if they covered and only lost by 7 or less or even won? They have a good running team and it will be cold. I think they could lose 24-17 and cover.
BTW the Super Bowl lines would be:
NE -13.5 vs the Giants
NE -10 against GB
GB -3.5 against SD
SD -4 against the Giants
(interesting that the spread of NE against the Giants would be the same as NE against SD this week, yet if SD and the Giants played in the SB SD would be favored by 4)
Any thoughts?