SSL3 Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

[Stinkin Ref]

My draft so far:

View attachment 2863

Also checking to see how I can add this to a post...

OK, looks decent, nice.

So far, so good with two starting QBs and TEs, 4 decent WRs (even if none are Top 10 candidates) and two rock-solid RBs.  I'll take it in this wide of a league.

like the QB combo and your RB's.....curious about your comment on having two starting TE's....interested in your thoughts on Williams and his depth chart positioning/usage with Watson brought in and Gilmore having some nice production before getting dinged....one could argue Williams would need to leap frog both of them at this point or at the very least battle them in camp....I'm not sure his starting status is locked down just yet....I was a little surprised to see them bring in Watson to be honest, but it may be a telling sign of their thoughts on Williams and his rookie year....although we seem to give rookie TE's a hall pass for some reason....looking for the opinions of others as there are some fantasy points to be had by a Flacco TE and this seems like an interesting battle developing......curious as to why you think Williams comes out on top.....sounds like watson and Gilmore will both be a go for camp...tia

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

like the QB combo and your RB's.....curious about your comment on having two starting TE's....interested in your thoughts on Williams and his depth chart positioning/usage with Watson brought in and Gilmore having some nice production before getting dinged....one could argue Williams would need to leap frog both of them at this point or at the very least battle them in camp....I'm not sure his starting status is locked down just yet....I was a little surprised to see them bring in Watson to be honest, but it may be a telling sign of their thoughts on Williams and his rookie year....although we seem to give rookie TE's a hall pass for some reason....looking for the opinions of others as there are some fantasy points to be had by a Flacco TE and this seems like an interesting battle developing......curious as to why you think Williams comes out on top.....sounds like watson and Gilmore will both be a go for camp...tia

Fair enough question.

The Ravens drafted Maxx Williams in Round 2 last year for a reason.  They don't really believe Pitta will return, and Ben Watson is a veteran insurance policy - just like Owen Daniels was a few years ago.  Ideally they'd love for Maxx to step up and be the top RECEIVING / MOVE tight end and Watson be the glorified extra left/right tackle.  Watson is one of those great veterans that can do just about anything they ask of him - but he's getting rather old (drafted in 2004, he's 35 now).  He had a career year last year, but that was mostly because no other TE in NO stepped up and the Saints had to throw to somebody at the position.  I think Watson coaches up Maxx and gets him to be the starting / move TE that Flacco really wants since the loss of Pitta.  Granted it is a speculative thought by me, but it's not that far out of the question.  At TE25+, he's more than worth the shot late in a draft like this just because of TE-year-2-upside.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

How did I time out?  Whatever - give me Carolina defense.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

No idea how to log in as the commish, so someone who knows, please give me CAR DEF.  Thanks.

 

[Pickle Rody]

No idea how to log in as the commish, so someone who knows, please give me CAR DEF.  Thanks.

Done.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Done.

Thanks.  If you want to PM me how to do it in case I mess up again, I'd appreciate knowing how to do so for MFL this year.  Can't for the life of me figure out how to switch to commissioner mode.

FYI - I also cleaned out my mailbox some.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Thanks.  If you want to PM me how to do it in case I mess up again, I'd appreciate knowing how to do so for MFL this year.  Can't for the life of me figure out how to switch to commissioner mode.

FYI - I also cleaned out my mailbox some.

Done.

 

[Borden]

I am having issues logging on and about to lose reception. If I haven't put in a predraft pick by the time my pick is up, please make a pick for me as I don't know how long I will be out of service range. 

Borden - 6 picks away. 

 

[snellman]

Not sure what is going on, but as others have said for some reason the notifications from MFL is spotty at best.  Been busier than normal with work lately, so I keep forgetting to check MFL for status (sorry, old age is kicking in hard).

 

[Soulfly3]

MFL is pure trash. That's the problem

 

[Pickle Rody]

You are obviously jaded, soulfly

 

[Soulfly3]

Nah, my team is going to defecate on all yours. 

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I am having issues logging on and about to lose reception. If I haven't put in a predraft pick by the time my pick is up, please make a pick for me as I don't know how long I will be out of service range. 

Borden - 6 picks away. 

He's up, and he needs a DST and a PK (and a QB2, but not sure if he wants to take one).

What do you guys think? (I don't want to make suggestions since I'm on deck and need the same two positions myself.)

 

[imjackdupp]

If trying to fill a position of need, after looking at the available qb's I'd have to lean towards DST

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

PHI, PIT, NYJ are probably the top three available DSTs. Someone weigh in so we can keep this thing moving.

 

[imjackdupp]

Jets appear to be the highest ranked of those left I'd vote give him the Jets and hope for the best.

Anyone else? Bueller? Bueller?

 

[Borden]

Jets appear to be the highest ranked of those left I'd vote give him the Jets and hope for the best.

Anyone else? Beuller? Beuller?

Just got service back. The Jets D will work. Still having troubles with log in. Thanks guys. 

 

[imjackdupp]

Just got service back. The Jets D will work. Still having troubles with log in. Thanks guys. 

You got it Johnny Manziel it is.

 

[Borden]

Just PM'd @imjackdupp . Sorry I dropped the ball on sending him the PM. I'm ruining this draft single handedly. 

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

My next pick is not in MFL, so I PM'ed RuffRodys05 to make the pick for me as I'm busy all day.

Thanks

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

My pick is on the comments on mfl.

Free agent we Anquan boldin.

 

[Pickle Rody]

My pick is on the comments on mfl.

Free agent we Anquan boldin.

I'll check on this when I get home Jeff. Boldin is in MFL's database but I'm not sure how to make him eligible to be drafted in our league. Might have to add him to your team after draft and replace the pick that was made as placeholder.

 

[RaiderBones]

I'll check on this when I get home Jeff. Boldin is in MFL's database but I'm not sure how to make him eligible to be drafted in our league. Might have to add him to your team after draft and replace the pick that was made as placeholder.

I had this same problem in SSL2. Log in as commissioner, then I did a player search, for example type Bol and a list of player including Boldin will pop up. Next to Boldins name there was a link I could click on and then you want to check the spot that allows free agent players to be drafted.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I had this same problem in SSL2. Log in as commissioner, then I did a player search, for example type Bol and a list of player including Boldin will pop up. Next to Boldins name there was a link I could click on and then you want to check the spot that allows free agent players to be drafted.

Tried that, can't do it.

Could be a problem for my last pick too.

 

[Pickle Rody]

FA listing is now turned on. Pick fixed. Should be good to go.

 

[Soulfly3]

Well... that was very, very interesting.

I've never, ever, had this poor a WR corps, as Ive never, ever been in an 18 man league... nor focused on early RBs like I did this time around.

Should be interesting. At least this year I have 2 starting QBs, and not romo and manziel. killed my team last year. literally.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The final roster is in:



Solid at QB, RB, D and K.

We'll see if the WRs and TEs are good enough.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

As is mine (edited to include assessment below):


Player


2015 YTD Pts


Bye


Drafted


Bortles, Blake JAC QB


474.40


5


5.11


Taylor, Tyrod BUF QB


353.95


10


7.11


Anderson, C.J. DEN RB


145.30


11


3.11


Cunningham, Benny RAM RB


65.00


8


19.11


Howard, Jordan CHI RB


-


9


12.08


Sims, Charles TBB RB


184.00


6


8.08


Sproles, Darren PHI RB


149.50


4


10.08


Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR


284.50


9


4.08


Funchess, Devin CAR WR


108.30


7


11.11


Randle, Rueben PHI WR


184.70


4


16.08


Roberts, Seth OAK WR


110.00


10


17.11


Robinson, Allen JAC WR


304.00


5


1.11


Smith, Torrey SFO WR


123.30


8


9.11


Amaro, Jace NYJ TE (P)


-


11


18.08


Barnidge, Gary CLE TE


316.30


13


6.08


Reed, Jordan WAS TE


335.20


9


2.08


Tucker, Justin BAL PK


128.00


8


13.11


Dolphins, Miami MIA Def


98.00


8


14.08


Titans, Tennessee TEN Def


96.00


13


15.11

QB: Spent a fair amount of draft capital here but I think it’s worth it … with 18 teams reliable backups were going to be at a premium … and flying solo seems way too risky to me in this format, while tripling up eats a valuable roster spot. Bortles finished QB3 last year despite a 58.6% completion rate – if he can improve that even marginally this year, the sky’s the limit. Love T-Mobile’s big-week potential as a backup; I own shares of Taylor in other survivors so I’d have preferred Mariota here, but not only is MM’s bye during the F4 in this league, it’s also when Bortles faces DEN. Like both the ceiling and the floor from this combo. A
RB: CJA should be a solid #1 option for me … maybe I’m biased but as an Eagles fan, I’ve seen enough of Mark Sanchez to be 100% confident that the Broncos can’t win with him if they don’t run the #### outta the ball, and I'm not sold on Booker at all. I wanted a sure floor at RB2 in case I decided to go only 4-deep, which I got by pairing Sims and Sproles. Sims finished within 4PPG of Doug Martin despite only being in on 39% of snaps last season – so there's additional upside there. Again as an Eagles fan, Sproles has lost a step, but he’ll still be good for 6-8 points in this format even on down weeks. I’m “meh” on Howard’s talent but love his situation … not a Langford believer and think Howard will be getting early-down work sooner than most people think. Not a huge ceiling from this group but a very high floor in PPR. C
WR: Frankly, after the top 4 I think you could throw the next 10 WRs in a hat, but opted for AR15 hoping that his best is yet to come … obviously if I knew I’d be drafting Bortles later, I’d have taken Green instead, as the concept of stacking the Jags’ offense scares me. Fitz should continue to work mainly out of the slot, giving him a high floor to go along with his big-play potential in Arians’ air raid offense. I’ve seen some of my favorite best-ball names slip in these leagues … sure enough, I was able to land two other targets of mine in the 9th and 11th, Torrey (love me that one-trick pony) and Funchess (a PFF darling in ’15 who even with Benjamin back should still get plenty of red-zone looks). Randle at WR83 is just goofy ... how many of the 20 guys taken before him have a clear path to the #2 role on an offense that doesn’t even have a top-25 RB? Roberts showed some flashes and has a reasonable grasp on a starting job; once you’re down in this area that’s all you can ask for. I was just looking to tread water here and think I managed it. B-
TE: I don’t think this league as a whole adjusted nearly enough to the introduction of a flex. For argument's sake, let's say all 18 of us filled our skill position roster before adding a flex … then the next “available” player at each position would be RB37, WR55, and TE19. In this format last year, RB37 scored 130 points, WR55 scored 122 … but TE19 put up 169! That’s a 2.5 PPG advantage to a TE in the flex (and might actually understate things since TE is so top-heavy). It adds up to doubling up at TE early being a smart strategy. Reed has Gronk potential in an improving Skins offense - as long as he doesn’t get his bell rung again (fingers crossed). I don’t expect Barnidge to become the next Kurt Warner or anything but, outside of Coleman, where else is RG3 gonna throw the ball? Even a line like 70/900/7 (=17 PPG) would still give him every-week flex potential, with the added benefit of a Reed safety net. I didn’t do much swinging for the fences in this draft, but having two potential top-10 names gave me the freedom to do so with Amaro. He’s got the tools to be dominant … with an aging Marshall and Decker his main competition for targets and potentially an inexperienced QB under center, he’s got an outside shot of putting up some big numbers. Some other intriguing TE combos in this league, but none I’d trade with. A+
ST: With 18 teams and only 9 bench slots, I planned all along to ride solo at PK if I could land a stud. Had Tucker queued up in the 12th (PK3), gritted my teeth and passed on him for Howard, then watched in bemusement as he fell all the way back to me in the 13th (PK10). Would it really surprise anyone if he finished #1 this year? As for DST’s, same strategy as always: grab two back-half teams with different byes. In other words, if I ever rate myself above-average here I probably screwed up. D+
    
Loved the challenge of an expanded league as well as the twist of having a flex spot for the first time. I’m not gonna lie, drawing a draft slot near the middle made this a lot easier, but even so it hurt watching 20 names go off the board between some of my picks. My thoughts on these survivors has always been, if you can avoid being bottom 2-3 at any position and be in the top 1-2 at just one position, you have a real shot at taking home a crown. Think that goes double here, because with more teams and more starters, any team with a glaring hole at any skill position will wind up at the bottom of the weekly pile sooner or later, and it only takes one week.

Best of luck to everyone this season. 
.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

FYI, looks like @Borden still has to make up 2 picks and @Longtucky Lemmings 1.  

Fortunately there's plenty of skill-position talent left floating around out there in this nice shallow league of ours. 

 

[Longtucky Lemmings]

FYI, looks like @Borden still has to make up 2 picks and @Longtucky Lemmings 1.  

Fortunately there's plenty of skill-position talent left floating around out there in this nice shallow league of ours. 

Not to mention my super sneaky tactic of totally forgetting to draft a defense until there were none left.  And by sneaky I mean, oops.  And by oops I mean, what a moron I am.  

This was quite the different experience for me.  Thanks for including me this year!  Looking forward to being one of the first teams knocked out but definitely learned a lot.

 

[Borden]

FYI, looks like @Borden still has to make up 2 picks and @Longtucky Lemmings 1.  

Fortunately there's plenty of skill-position talent left floating around out there in this nice shallow league of ours. 

I would take Josh McCown and Nick Foles. 

Aside from being a jerk and holding up the draft, this is why you don't miss picks. 

 

[FF Ninja]

As is mine (edited to include assessment below):


Player


2015 YTD Pts


Bye


Drafted


Bortles, Blake JAC QB


474.40


5


5.11


Taylor, Tyrod BUF QB


353.95


10


7.11


Anderson, C.J. DEN RB


145.30


11


3.11


Cunningham, Benny RAM RB


65.00


8


19.11


Howard, Jordan CHI RB


-


9


12.08


Sims, Charles TBB RB


184.00


6


8.08


Sproles, Darren PHI RB


149.50


4


10.08


Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR


284.50


9


4.08


Funchess, Devin CAR WR


108.30


7


11.11


Randle, Rueben PHI WR


184.70


4


16.08


Roberts, Seth OAK WR


110.00


10


17.11


Robinson, Allen JAC WR


304.00


5


1.11


Smith, Torrey SFO WR


123.30


8


9.11


Amaro, Jace NYJ TE (P)


-


11


18.08


Barnidge, Gary CLE TE


316.30


13


6.08


Reed, Jordan WAS TE


335.20


9


2.08


Tucker, Justin BAL PK


128.00


8


13.11


Dolphins, Miami MIA Def


98.00


8


14.08


Titans, Tennessee TEN Def


96.00


13


15.11

QB: Spent a fair amount of draft capital here but I think it’s worth it … with 18 teams reliable backups were going to be at a premium … and flying solo seems way too risky to me in this format, while tripling up eats a valuable roster spot. Bortles finished QB3 last year despite a 58.6% completion rate – if he can improve that even marginally this year, the sky’s the limit. Love T-Mobile’s big-week potential as a backup; I own shares of Taylor in other survivors so I’d have preferred Mariota here, but not only is MM’s bye during the F4 in this league, it’s also when Bortles faces DEN. Like both the ceiling and the floor from this combo. A
RB: CJA should be a solid #1 option for me … maybe I’m biased but as an Eagles fan, I’ve seen enough of Mark Sanchez to be 100% confident that the Broncos can’t win with him if they don’t run the #### outta the ball, and I'm not sold on Booker at all. I wanted a sure floor at RB2 in case I decided to go only 4-deep, which I got by pairing Sims and Sproles. Sims finished within 4PPG of Doug Martin despite only being in on 39% of snaps last season – so there's additional upside there. Again as an Eagles fan, Sproles has lost a step, but he’ll still be good for 6-8 points in this format even on down weeks. I’m “meh” on Howard’s talent but love his situation … not a Langford believer and think Howard will be getting early-down work sooner than most people think. Not a huge ceiling from this group but a very high floor in PPR. C
WR: Frankly, after the top 4 I think you could throw the next 10 WRs in a hat, but opted for AR15 hoping that his best is yet to come … obviously if I knew I’d be drafting Bortles later, I’d have taken Green instead, as the concept of stacking the Jags’ offense scares me. Fitz should continue to work mainly out of the slot, giving him a high floor to go along with his big-play potential in Arians’ air raid offense. I’ve seen some of my favorite best-ball names slip in these leagues … sure enough, I was able to land two other targets of mine in the 9th and 11th, Torrey (love me that one-trick pony) and Funchess (a PFF darling in ’15 who even with Benjamin back should still get plenty of red-zone looks). Randle at WR83 is just goofy ... how many of the 20 guys taken before him have a clear path to the #2 role on an offense that doesn’t even have a top-25 RB? Roberts showed some flashes and has a reasonable grasp on a starting job; once you’re down in this area that’s all you can ask for. I was just looking to tread water here and think I managed it. B-
TE: I don’t think this league as a whole adjusted nearly enough to the introduction of a flex. For argument's sake, let's say all 18 of us filled our skill position roster before adding a flex … then the next “available” player at each position would be RB37, WR55, and TE19. In this format last year, RB37 scored 130 points, WR55 scored 122 … but TE19 put up 169! That’s a 2.5 PPG advantage to a TE in the flex (and might actually understate things since TE is so top-heavy). It adds up to doubling up at TE early being a smart strategy. Reed has Gronk potential in an improving Skins offense - as long as he doesn’t get his bell rung again (fingers crossed). I don’t expect Barnidge to become the next Kurt Warner or anything but, outside of Coleman, where else is RG3 gonna throw the ball? Even a line like 70/900/7 (=17 PPG) would still give him every-week flex potential, with the added benefit of a Reed safety net. I didn’t do much swinging for the fences in this draft, but having two potential top-10 names gave me the freedom to do so with Amaro. He’s got the tools to be dominant … with an aging Marshall and Decker his main competition for targets and potentially an inexperienced QB under center, he’s got an outside shot of putting up some big numbers. Some other intriguing TE combos in this league, but none I’d trade with. A+
ST: With 18 teams and only 9 bench slots, I planned all along to ride solo at PK if I could land a stud. Had Tucker queued up in the 12th (PK3), gritted my teeth and passed on him for Howard, then watched in bemusement as he fell all the way back to me in the 13th (PK10). Would it really surprise anyone if he finished #1 this year? As for DST’s, same strategy as always: grab two back-half teams with different byes. In other words, if I ever rate myself above-average here I probably screwed up. D+
    
Loved the challenge of an expanded league as well as the twist of having a flex spot for the first time. I’m not gonna lie, drawing a draft slot near the middle made this a lot easier, but even so it hurt watching 20 names go off the board between some of my picks. My thoughts on these survivors has always been, if you can avoid being bottom 2-3 at any position and be in the top 1-2 at just one position, you have a real shot at taking home a crown. Think that goes double here, because with more teams and more starters, any team with a glaring hole at any skill position will wind up at the bottom of the weekly pile sooner or later, and it only takes one week.

Best of luck to everyone this season. 
.

I totally agree with your take about the adjustment for the flex. I actually meant to draft a 3rd TE, but somehow totally forgot I had drafted Ryan Mathews so I took Powell in the 10th when I would've taken a 3rd TE (had I been sober and not drafting from my phone) and then just didn't like anybody after that and had to draft for other needs. Because of the flex, I was going to keep drafting WRs after I had 3 solid WRs if one slipped to me that I couldn't pass on. Anyway, your three TE combo should serve you well, filling your flex often, assuming Barnidge maintains his target load with a new QB and Reed stays healthy. Reed worries me a bit, though. Paul and Carrier (and even Davis) are all more athletic than him and Paul beat him out in camp last year. Just some food for thought since Reed carries such an expensive price tag. I know I'm in the minority on that one, though.

I think the solo PK is going to hurt you. That is a position that scores a lot of points and in a best ball situation, I think you really need two (somewhat based on some lengthy discussions on PK that I've read pertaining to the annual subscriber contest which is also best ball). But yes, I agree Tucker will be a top PK.

I agree about the importance of not messing around with your backup QB in an 18 team best ball league. I actually drafted my QBs in the same rounds as you.

Man, I wanted Howard, but you took him way earlier than I expected him to go. You probably could've taken Tucker there and still gotten Howard where you got Tucker. You've got a good balance of TD guys (CJA, Howard) and PPR guys (Sims, Benny, Sproles). A relatively cheap, but solid unit. In an 18 team league, I'd rate it better than a C.

I'm pretty leery of both Bortles and Robinson this year. I think both see a pretty significant reduction in TDs making their ADP just about equal to their fantasy ceiling. But I really like the Torrey Smith pick. I wanted him this year - he's going to fit very well into Kelly's offense. Possible SOD. It may not happen this year but I kind of think Garrett eventually steals Funchess' job. Just a hunch.

 

[FF Ninja]

QB Palmer, Flacco

Palmer still getting no love. I don't see any reason for regression this year. His studly WR trio is back and he won't be saddled with Chris Johnson and instead will have a more capable RB playing (hopefully if Arians goes RBBC he goes DJ/Ellington rather than DJ/CJ). Flacco should see a huge bump with all the weapons he'll have at WR/TE this year. I also like the rookie RB Dixon.

WR Evans, K.Allen, Edelman, Janis, Quick, Wilson

Hell of a trio. Evans was overdrafted due to his rookie TEs and underdrafted due to his lack of TDs in his soph year. I took the injury discount on both Allen and Edelman. These three should crush it in PPR. Then I went upside with Janis and Quick. Janis should be a starter with crazy potential in GB while Quick is slotted as WR3 behind Britt and Austin - so he has a chance to move up the depth chart if he can catch some of his pre-injury 2014 magic. Wilson is a hail mary, but could have a year 3 break out as he continues to prove his worth.

RB Mathews, Vereen, Powell, Blount, Dunbar

Mathews was a target for me after he didn't get traded by Philly and they only drafted Smallwood. He should perform quite well in this offense despite getting no love. Blount is back as a bruiser in NE while the other three guys have flourished as PPR spot starters (Dunbar 21 rec in 3 games, Powell 46 in 10, Vereen 59 in 16). Given the best ball format, I should be able to get two solid outings per week out of this bargain basement crew to keep pace with much more expensive RB corps.

TE Fleener, Cook

I think I have Fleener in all three mock leagues. Can't stress how productive that spot has been for years. Brees makes decent TEs look like pro bowlers. As for Cook, I can't believe how cheap he is despite being in GB. I guess people have totally written him off. He's going to find his way into my flex pretty frequently I imagine.

PK Santos, Dawson

Just wanted 2 guys with stable jobs. With 18 teams I feel lucky to have this duo.

DEF Eagles, Falcons

Again with 18 teams, I'm just happy to have 2.

Overall, I'd be happy with this team in a 16 team league.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I think the solo PK is going to hurt you. That is a position that scores a lot of points and in a best ball situation, I think you really need two (somewhat based on some lengthy discussions on PK that I've read pertaining to the annual subscriber contest which is also best ball). But yes, I agree Tucker will be a top PK.

Thanks for the feedback - I'll probably respond to the rest of it at some stage, but it's funny you bring this point in particular up now, as I've been a "fly solo" guy for a while and had some back-and-forth with Ref in the past, and if you read his SSL recap it sounds like he's coming around to my POV. 

Let's stipulate I'm ignoring injury risk. It happens, but the top PKs play a full 16 so often that it's not worth insuring against on its own.

So: if you've got a top 5-7 PK, what does having a second PK earn you incrementally? The answer can be "dozens of points" or "next to nothing" depending on the particular PK1 and PK2 ... but when I've run the numbers over 3 seasons for a wide range of duos, I've found the average to be pretty consistently around 1.5 PPG.

Which makes the obvious next question: "does going solo at PK, and drafting an RB5, or WR7, or TE3, net you more than an incremental 1.5 PPG on average?"

Except! I don't think that "last skill-position roster spot" is the right basis for comparison, because that guy will almost always be your last-round pick. But you can't take a last-round PK in a 16-teamer (never mind an 18), 3+ months before TC breaks, with any real confidence that he'll even make the 53-man, much less play a full 16. I'd say that with any pick lower than about PK25 you're playing Russian roulette with at least a couple bullets in the chamber.

But if you look where PK22-25 have been drafted historically, they've been more like 15th-round picks than last-rounders. So the bar of 1.5 incremental PPG shouldn't be set against your RB5 or WR7, but probably something more like your RB4 or WR6.

And I'm pretty certain that, over a 17-game season where average team scores are in the 110-120 range, that fourth RB or sixth WR is going to appear in my best-ball lineups to the tune of more than 25 incremental fantasy points almost always.

 

[Reaper]

I went with the 1 Kicker Theory...

.. then I drafted Brian Hartline.... WTF

 

[FF Ninja]

Thanks for the feedback - I'll probably respond to the rest of it at some stage, but it's funny you bring this point in particular up now, as I've been a "fly solo" guy for a while and had some back-and-forth with Ref in the past, and if you read his SSL recap it sounds like he's coming around to my POV. 

Let's stipulate I'm ignoring injury risk. It happens, but the top PKs play a full 16 so often that it's not worth insuring against on its own.

So: if you've got a top 5-7 PK, what does having a second PK earn you incrementally? The answer can be "dozens of points" or "next to nothing" depending on the particular PK1 and PK2 ... but when I've run the numbers over 3 seasons for a wide range of duos, I've found the average to be pretty consistently around 1.5 PPG.

Which makes the obvious next question: "does going solo at PK, and drafting an RB5, or WR7, or TE3, net you more than an incremental 1.5 PPG on average?"

Except! I don't think that "last skill-position roster spot" is the right basis for comparison, because that guy will almost always be your last-round pick. But you can't take a last-round PK in a 16-teamer (never mind an 18), 3+ months before TC breaks, with any real confidence that he'll even make the 53-man, much less play a full 16. I'd say that with any pick lower than about PK25 you're playing Russian roulette with at least a couple bullets in the chamber.

But if you look where PK22-25 have been drafted historically, they've been more like 15th-round picks than last-rounders. So the bar of 1.5 incremental PPG shouldn't be set against your RB5 or WR7, but probably something more like your RB4 or WR6.

And I'm pretty certain that, over a 17-game season where average team scores are in the 110-120 range, that fourth RB or sixth WR is going to appear in my best-ball lineups to the tune of more than 25 incremental fantasy points almost always.

I agree that ignoring injury is fine for this exercise, but I'm lacking the data to discern what the weekly average is so I'll have to take your word that it is only 1.5 points. I think my second kicker was in the PK22-25 range and I got him in the 16th round (271st pick if my math is right). Looking at the draft from the 16th round on, I think the vast majority of those players will be lucky to crack the starting lineup a handful of times (and when they do, how much will they offer above replacement?). I feel like PK is a much safer investment with similar upside. You'd have to really catch lightning in a bottle past pick 270 to get more value than you will from a kicker. I wouldn't be surprised if kickers were going earlier due to the 18 teams, but regardless, 270 = 17.14 in a 16 team league. Not too many difference makers being drafted in round 17-18. If you've got somebody you love in that range, then yeah, grab 'em. But I suspect a second kicker in the 17th is going to net you more roster points 9 out of 10 times. But that is purely my speculation. I should pull up some old SSL drafts and see how many guys in the 17th round actually made impacts, but that's too much work. I'd rather just keep drafting my second kicker there and hope I'm right.

To add to this, you may think you have a top 3 PK that you found at PK10, but typically a top 3 PK cost you at least a round. Just glancing at SSL1, PK3 went 1 round earlier than PK10. So normally, you'd have to reach a round to do this solo PK plan if it requires a top PK. I like Tucker this year, but I wouldn't put money on him being top 3.

Crap, I couldn't resist looking over that SSL1 draft - it looks like it actually costs somewhere in the round 15 range to get PK22-25, but it looks like Zuerlein was the last PK taken in SSL1 and he's got a safe job, yet was available at 17.12. I think I typically grab my second kicker in round 16, so now that I see that, I might wait a round. But in the WSL and PDSL drafts, it's hard to figure out whose job is safe at that point. I know I have Connor Barth in one of those leagues. He's now competing for the Saints job. Not the job security I had hoped for.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

1. last year Aaron Rudnicki won SSL1 while drafting only one PK (Nugent)

2. he took Nugent in round 16

3. he took Dan Herron in round 17...to the tune of 21.60 points and not starting for him once 

4. he only had immunity once (week 5)

5. oh and his first round pick last year...........................................Jordy Nelson

6. on Nugents bye week....Rudnicki had the second lowest score (83.9)....because his QB (Rodgers) was on a bye and his other QB (Geno Smith) wasn't playing.....Jordy was actually in his line up that week with a big fat donut just because the rest of his team sucked that week....

7. luckily....Go Pack sucked even worse (57.5) with his QB's Manning/bye and Griffin posting zeros as well as DT and several other guys.....

8. any extra points from a PK that week really wouldn't have made a difference as both Rudnicki and Go Pack were well behind the rest of the teams that week

9. what did make a difference?......drafting Tavon Austin instead of a second PK.....in round 18....

10. Tavon Austin = 196.70 points and starting 13 out of a possible 16 weeks for him......championship!

other 18th round picks besides Austin: Allen Hurns (227.10), Javorious Allen, Kearse,  Riddick 

conclusion: there really isn't one.... as there are many ways to skin a cat.....but in an 18 roster spot league, I'll be leaning one solid PK direction from here on out and using that extra bullet somewhere else, because even though some people think they are just throwing darts at the end of these sometimes.....above is a perfect example of needing that extra bullet elsewhere to actually win the thing....if he goes PK2 with his last pick....he don't win

 

[BassNBrew]

Finished fourth in ssl1 last year. Out week 13 with 141 pets. Would have won the league Dana that week. Only had one k and one def. my extra two picks were cadet and Chris Matthews. Doug Martin in the 11th as my fourth rb was the difference maker

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Finished fourth in ssl1 last year. Out week 13 with 141 pets. Would have won the league Dana that week. Only had one k and one def. my extra two picks were cadet and Chris Matthews. Doug Martin in the 11th as my fourth rb was the difference maker

4th place is the 3rd loser....and wtf is Dana...?

anyway....IIRC I think Rud's grabbed Freeman in like the 8th or 9th so that also obviously helped...

what's so cool about survivor format is that it is so jacked up....I went out the week before Bass (week 12---4th loser)....at the end of the year Bass led the league averaging 144 points a week....I was next to last at 107....the first 5 guys booted averaged over 120 a week....

unfortunately....luck plays a pretty huge role in these things....it can be minimized somewhat but probably pretty bigger part of this format than we want to admit.... 

the PK and DST runs that take place are also pretty interesting and I think something that will start to spread out a little more over the last half of the drafts moving forward as guys try to steal some value elsewhere in the rounds that were normally dedicated to filling those 4 roster spots....its already happening....

can also minimize luck by hitting on the Austin's and Hurns' of the world in those last few rounds....is it "lucky" that Ruds took Austin in the last round instead of a second PK.....maybe...maybe not.....maybe a little...is it lucky that he happened to take Austin instead of say Greg Jennings......maybe....maybe not....maybe a little....but either way, you can look at that one pick, his last pick, as the most crucial piece of his draft....

 

[FF Ninja]

1. last year Aaron Rudnicki won SSL1 while drafting only one PK (Nugent)

2. he took Nugent in round 16

3. he took Dan Herron in round 17...to the tune of 21.60 points and not starting for him once 

4. he only had immunity once (week 5)

5. oh and his first round pick last year...........................................Jordy Nelson

6. on Nugents bye week....Rudnicki had the second lowest score (83.9)....because his QB (Rodgers) was on a bye and his other QB (Geno Smith) wasn't playing.....Jordy was actually in his line up that week with a big fat donut just because the rest of his team sucked that week....

7. luckily....Go Pack sucked even worse (57.5) with his QB's Manning/bye and Griffin posting zeros as well as DT and several other guys.....

8. any extra points from a PK that week really wouldn't have made a difference as both Rudnicki and Go Pack were well behind the rest of the teams that week

9. what did make a difference?......drafting Tavon Austin instead of a second PK.....in round 18....

10. Tavon Austin = 196.70 points and starting 13 out of a possible 16 weeks for him......championship!

other 18th round picks besides Austin: Allen Hurns (227.10), Javorious Allen, Kearse,  Riddick 

conclusion: there really isn't one.... as there are many ways to skin a cat.....but in an 18 roster spot league, I'll be leaning one solid PK direction from here on out and using that extra bullet somewhere else, because even though some people think they are just throwing darts at the end of these sometimes.....above is a perfect example of needing that extra bullet elsewhere to actually win the thing....if he goes PK2 with his last pick....he don't win

5 out of 16 is higher than I expected. Would be interesting to see if that is the norm or not. Still not great odds.

I'm sure there are examples of people who would've won it all had they gotten just a few more points out of PK one week and the guy they drafted in the 18th never touched their lineup. It works both ways.

Finished fourth in ssl1 last year. Out week 13 with 141 pets. Would have won the league Dana that week. Only had one k and one def. my extra two picks were cadet and Chris Matthews. Doug Martin in the 11th as my fourth rb was the difference maker

That's my fault. Doug never should've fallen that far. I took him in the 7th in the PDSL last year and decided to avoid doubling up on him in SSL.

I'd also like to know what a Dana is.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

5 out of 16 is higher than I expected. Would be interesting to see if that is the norm or not. Still not great odds.

I'm sure there are examples of people who would've won it all had they gotten just a few more points out of PK one week and the guy they drafted in the 18th never touched their lineup. It works both ways.

That's my fault. Doug never should've fallen that far. I took him in the 7th in the PDSL last year and decided to avoid doubling up on him in SSL.

I'd also like to know what a Dana is.

hey ninja....just curious what were you referring to with the 5 out of 16 thing.....lost me there...

no doubt there may have been some times where PK2 saved somebody's bacon one week and then that team may have gone on to win it all, but I'm just starting to warm to the idea of rolling the dice that I'm not in that situation and that the Austin scenario playing out is more probable and probably has a better chance of saving my bacon more often....

if I select say PK12....somebody like say Dan Bailey....and then snag PK28...say Greg the Leg....the weekly avg (which is really more important in survivor than total points) between those guys is less than a point.......now I realize the variance of week to week can be different and big weeks here or there might help, but still over the course of the season, odds are that the weekly average plays out....and sure that one point could make a difference in advancing or not advancing.....but I still think I like the odds of a core position player helping me more often and filling in as my RB2 or WR3 each week....of course who you take instead of that PK2 is obviously a huge factor.....and maybe the type of production that Austin provided is not typical of that late of a pick....still think rolling the dice that direction might be the way to go...especially in the 18 roster leagues...

 

[FF Ninja]

hey ninja....just curious what were you referring to with the 5 out of 16 thing.....lost me there...

no doubt there may have been some times where PK2 saved somebody's bacon one week and then that team may have gone on to win it all, but I'm just starting to warm to the idea of rolling the dice that I'm not in that situation and that the Austin scenario playing out is more probable and probably has a better chance of saving my bacon more often....

if I select say PK12....somebody like say Dan Bailey....and then snag PK28...say Greg the Leg....the weekly avg (which is really more important in survivor than total points) between those guys is less than a point.......now I realize the variance of week to week can be different and big weeks here or there might help, but still over the course of the season, odds are that the weekly average plays out....and sure that one point could make a difference in advancing or not advancing.....but I still think I like the odds of a core position player helping me more often and filling in as my RB2 or WR3 each week....of course who you take instead of that PK2 is obviously a huge factor.....and maybe the type of production that Austin provided is not typical of that late of a pick....still think rolling the dice that direction might be the way to go...especially in the 18 roster leagues...

Sorry, you listed Austin + 4 guys taken in the 18th round that were fantasy relevant. I really figured most of the time only 2 guys in the 18th round pan out.

I just did a quick glance at six teams from last year (SSL2 was the first I stumbled upon) that had two mostly healthy kickers and checked the points from the lower scoring kicker (the problem is that the second drafted kicker wasn't always the lowest scorer but I'm lazy and didn't feel like checking draft position). But you guys were right. It is less than 2 ppg. Three of them were 1.9 ppg with the low being 1.0 ppg. Most of them only came into effect for ~6 games, so we're looking at about 5 points when they actually count which can definitely be enough to save your bacon from elimination.

So the conclusion is that if you draft a PK in the late rounds that actually plays (not injured or cut), you'll almost certainly get a decent benefit from him in 33% of the weeks. The odds of hitting a Kearse are pretty slim and even more slim for a Tavon Austin, but let's say you do hit a guy like Kearse, how many weeks do you think he matters if you drafted well on your top 5 WRs? His weekly average is probably less than 2 ppg as well.

Tavon was obviously huge for the winner of SSL1 last year because of the injury to Jordy and Parker's slow start, but if you've got 5 healthy guys, the 6th guy matters a lot less.

Just glancing, I think defenses are very similar to kickers (1<ppg<2) but without the injury/cut risk.

No real strong takeaways here. Just kind of spitballing...

 

[Stinkin Ref]

cool and yeah I just listed a few guys that had impact....there may have been more....

the Jordy factor most certainly factored into the number of times Austin was used by Ruds......but Austin also finished as WR28, so he would have been a huge contributor even if Jordy was healthy....as Austin was squarely in the WR2 group...

and the likelihood is that one or more of your RB and WR will get injured and you are pretty lucky if you make it through a whole year with non of your RB/WR's missing time....

in an 18 roster draft....I don't necessarily agree that the odds of hitting an Austin or a Kearse are that slim.....there are usually some guys (these are two good examples) that you know are locked into their respective roles.....meaning we all knew that Kearse was basically the WR2 in SEA going into all of the drafts last year, but yet there he was late in the draft....guys took flyers elsewhere swinging for the home run instead of just taking what yuo would expect from a guy like Kearse.....Austin kind of the same thing.....in his case he maybe just hit paydirt a few more times last year than people expected.....

I'm not really sold on any of this noise I am making either.....but it's something I'm taking a look at....

 

[Stinkin Ref]

1. the only time I need PK2 is when I am on the cut line.....and I need his difference in points over my PK1 to advance....

2. the other times my PK2 outscores my PK1 don't matter....

I'm not sure how often #1 really happens....maybe more than I think....and I'm not real sure how often my extra RB or WR scores for me, but I'm guessing it might be more than #1..... 

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

QB Palmer, Flacco

Palmer still getting no love. I don't see any reason for regression this year. His studly WR trio is back and he won't be saddled with Chris Johnson and instead will have a more capable RB playing (hopefully if Arians goes RBBC he goes DJ/Ellington rather than DJ/CJ). Flacco should see a huge bump with all the weapons he'll have at WR/TE this year. I also like the rookie RB Dixon.

WR Evans, K.Allen, Edelman, Janis, Quick, Wilson

Hell of a trio. Evans was overdrafted due to his rookie TEs and underdrafted due to his lack of TDs in his soph year. I took the injury discount on both Allen and Edelman. These three should crush it in PPR. Then I went upside with Janis and Quick. Janis should be a starter with crazy potential in GB while Quick is slotted as WR3 behind Britt and Austin - so he has a chance to move up the depth chart if he can catch some of his pre-injury 2014 magic. Wilson is a hail mary, but could have a year 3 break out as he continues to prove his worth.

RB Mathews, Vereen, Powell, Blount, Dunbar

Mathews was a target for me after he didn't get traded by Philly and they only drafted Smallwood. He should perform quite well in this offense despite getting no love. Blount is back as a bruiser in NE while the other three guys have flourished as PPR spot starters (Dunbar 21 rec in 3 games, Powell 46 in 10, Vereen 59 in 16). Given the best ball format, I should be able to get two solid outings per week out of this bargain basement crew to keep pace with much more expensive RB corps.

TE Fleener, Cook

I think I have Fleener in all three mock leagues. Can't stress how productive that spot has been for years. Brees makes decent TEs look like pro bowlers. As for Cook, I can't believe how cheap he is despite being in GB. I guess people have totally written him off. He's going to find his way into my flex pretty frequently I imagine.

PK Santos, Dawson

Just wanted 2 guys with stable jobs. With 18 teams I feel lucky to have this duo.

DEF Eagles, Falcons

Again with 18 teams, I'm just happy to have 2.

"Two PK or not two PK" (see what I did there?) is exciting and all, but figured I'd return the favor on team feedback.

Palmer / Flacco is a hell of a QB combo in best-ball. I went for Bortles and Tyrod 7 picks before each of them, but in each case your guy was 2nd on my wish list and the only reason was age. At their current prices I envision your two being on a lot of my teams this year. Solid A grade here.

RBs a lot like mine as well - not spectacular but solid with a high floor. I haven't targeted Mathews in the survivors due to his fragility, but I'll probably own a lot of shares in regular leagues as he should get a lot of work as long as he stays out there. Vereen and Powell will give you 10-12 touches a week and a solid RB2 floor. Blount should be locked in as the short-yardage back and is a great bet for a couple of those Belichick 12-28-3 specials that might win you an immunity or two. Dunbar I won't touch, as his injury news isn't promising (sounds likely to start the season on PUP), but if you need to rely on him in the early going you have bigger problems anyway. Overall maybe a B-/C+ crew, but great value for the picks spent.

I'm not generally a fan of "stars and scrubs" in these leagues (even studs have the occasional off week, and it only takes one) but you pulled it off pretty well at WR. Evans averaged a ridiculous 25PPG in the last half of the season (in retrospect I absolutely should have gone with him instead of AR15) so he ought to beast. Allen / Edelman are target monsters, so your week-to-week variability should be low, which gives you some flexibility to wait a while and reach for upside. I like Janis over Adams in GB as well. I don't expect that the WR3s in either LA or KC will deliver much fantasy value - but between the 4 ostensible starters ahead of them only Maclin is a reliable option, so it's not like they're completely buried on the charts. Obviously an A+ top-3, but I'd knock it down a couple pegs overall as the lack of mid-tier options leaves you reliant on injury luck and/or a Janis breakout.

Fleener's a guy I feel like I might regret passing on for Ertz and Green in previous survivors. What Ben Watson did last year should convince people that Graham didn't put up those monster numbers just because he was Graham. Given that your back-end WRs are lower-percentage plays, I agree you're likely going to be using that TE2 in your flex a lot, which might have pushed me toward a more known quantity like Clay or Witten rather than Cook ... can't really blame you for choosing the guy with A-Rod as his QB though. Another above-average grade here.

Special teams - no world-beaters among them but as you said, with 18 teams in the mix, any pair of starters is fine. Of course I'm interested in seeing how many weeks Dawson scores for you vs. a Leonte Carroo or Rishard Matthews whom you could have had with that pick ...

I'm glad I really like this squad, as it bears a pretty strong resemblance to my own.  Solid QBs, TEs with top 3-5 potential, and average to above-average RBs and WRs, with a nice ceiling/floor mix across the board. It's even more impressive considering you were drafting from the turn ... in your shoes I'm pretty sure I'd have reached on some positions for fear of missing out on runs. All in all, I look forward to knocking you off in the finals to claim my first survivor league title. 

 

[FF Ninja]

"Two PK or not two PK" (see what I did there?) is exciting and all, but figured I'd return the favor on team feedback.

Ha!

I've read a couple pieces on Amaro after the draft and I'm starting to think he could be a really nice draft pick for you. Seems like the talent is there. Just depends on how Gailey uses him. He wasn't even on my radar when I was drafting. That's what I like about these mocks and the post-draft analysis. I tend to find a sleeper or two for my leagues that draft later.

I think Ertz and Green will both be good. I actually think they are my WSL2 TE combo. Somebody got Fleener around TE20 in that league, I think (before free agency). PIT hasn't given Heath a lot of love (targets) the past few years, so I rank Fleener over Green even though I think Green is a better player. Ertz is also better than Fleener, but with a situation in flux it is hard to project his targets. I pretty much avoided Fleener until he landed in TE heaven. You're right about Witten, though. I was really torn between and old Witten vs. Cook with Rodgers. Went for upside.

I definitely think Mathews will be a great value play in redraft this year. His injury history also scares me in this format. I had Barner lined up for the last round but changed my mind due to RB depth and the fact I'm not sure Barner will be the clear cut backup. Mathews better stay healthy until Dunbar returns. I actually didn't realize Dunbar might hit the PUP. I guess I should pay more attention to Joe's e-mails...

FWIW, I'm not a studs and scrubs strategy guy, either. That's just the way my WRs fell. I was going to keep loading up, but wanted to leave a few spots in case I landed Torrey, Wallace, and/or Janis. I'll probably fill the back of my WR bench with those 3 guys in every auction league. Their draft positions fluctuate a lot in snakes, so hard to pinpoint where to grab 'em. Janis is a must have, though. He should outright win the other outside job and if Jordy is not 100%... watch out.

Speaking of AR15 vs. Evans - I'd also recommend AJ Green over AR15 (and over Hopkins for that matter). Not a popular take right now, but I'm very confident in it.

 

[bro1ncos]

Week 1:

Immunity - Jeff Pasquino

Eliminated - Drunken Slob

 

[bro1ncos]

Week 2:

Immunity - Wheelsup

Eliminated - Reaper

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Soulfly, ASJ in the third? You're loco hombre. 

He wasn't crazy, he was drunk. Oh, wait, actually it was ASJ who's drunk. 

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Hey @bro1ncos - per BnB's special rules for SSL3, there are 2 teams kicked to the curb each of the first 2 weeks. By my reckoning, that makes the fallout to this point:

Week 1 - Booted: Slob (95.75) and Borden (99.00), Immune: Pasquino (182.60). Can't complain here as the 3rd-lowest score was 20+ points clear of these two.
Week 2 - Booted: Reaper (115.70) and HellToupee (128.95), Immune: WheelsUp (176.10). Hell a hard-luck loser as he only had the 4th-lowest score of the week, but the other two happened to be the Week 1 bootees.
Week 3 - Booted: Ben & Jerry (87.50), Immune: imjackdupp (172.65). Jackd gets immunity one week after avoiding elimination by half a point.

... which leaves 13 teams remaining, the same as every other survivor league. Including @Longtucky Lemmings, who has somehow survived 5 eliminations despite not having a D/ST on his roster.  

I've updated the league page with all the info.