Stafford and Calvin (1 Viewer)

[Grahamburn]

Entering week 7 in 2011 this combination had produced 24 touchdowns. 9 for Calvin, and 15 for Stafford.

So far in 2012 entering week 7 they have yet to hook up for a touchdown reception, and they have a measly 5 combined on the season. Stafford has 4 and the best red zone threat at WR in the NFL has 1. ONE!

I'm truly shocked by this lack of production. I don't see teams defending Johnson any differently than they were in 2011. The offensive personnel is basically the same. The offensive philosophy doesn't seem to have changed.

These guys were on fire to end 2011. It's absolutely amazing none of that chemistry or timing has translated to 2012.

Does anyone have any insight on what might be going on here? What am I missing?

 

[rockaction]

Entering week 7 in 2011 this combination had produced 24 touchdowns. 9 for Calvin, and 15 for Stafford.

So far in 2012 entering week 7 they have yet to hook up for a touchdown reception, and they have a measly 5 combined on the season. Stafford has 4 and the best red zone threat at WR in the NFL has 1. ONE!

I'm truly shocked by this lack of production. I don't see teams defending Johnson any differently than they were in 2011. The offensive personnel is basically the same. The offensive philosophy doesn't seem to have changed.

These guys were on fire to end 2011. It's absolutely amazing none of that chemistry or timing has translated to 2012.

Does anyone have any insight on what might be going on here? What am I missing?

Rolled coverages and double or triple-teams in the red zone. There's just a ton of focus of Johnson. Two guys jamming you at the one will give anyone problems. Hopefully it'll come along. I know I'm waiting.

 

[Grahamburn]

I've seen the "punt coverage" used against Johnson inside the 5, and Stafford finally took advantage of it against the Eagles Sunday when he ran for a score, but you'd think Stafford would be hitting some of his other weapons for really easy scores with all the attention paid to Calvin.

I guess we can attribute a lot of the issues to Stafford's play? He has looked extremely out of sync at times. Pettigrew has had a few drops as well with at least one in the end zone.

The difference between 2011's production and what has happened so far in 2012 is astonishing to say the least.

 

[rockaction]

I've seen the "punt coverage" used against Johnson inside the 5, and Stafford finally took advantage of it against the Eagles Sunday when he ran for a score, but you'd think Stafford would be hitting some of his other weapons for really easy scores with all the attention paid to Calvin.

I guess we can attribute a lot of the issues to Stafford's play? He has looked extremely out of sync at times. Pettigrew has had a few drops as well with at least one in the end zone.

The difference between 2011's production and what has happened so far in 2012 is astonishing to say the least.

I was actually going to mention that. There was nobody within ten yards of him on that bootleg. Stafford has looked out of sync. I think he might be more hurt than he's letting on and his mechanics look a little off to my untrained eye. Lots of sidearming, which could indicate that his "hip" problem is worse than anyone is letting on. Once the lower body goes, everything else compensates. It also looks like he doesn't trust his line sometimes. Just out of sync all around until they start just being aggressive and running their two-minute drill. Maybe they should run a no-huddle.

 

[Shutout]

Best thread title of the week

 

[kutta]

Burleson is a year older, and Young seems to have regressed a bit too. With Brandon dropping everything thrown his way, Stafford's only real weapon is Calvin. The other guys are going to have to step up if Calvin and Stafford are going to improve.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I blame John Madden.

 

[Statcruncher]

This duo was on a blistering record setting pace last year and you're shocked that they aren't doing it again? Were you shocked they didn't go 0-16 in 2009 too?

 

[Grahamburn]

Best thread title of the week

This duo was on a blistering record setting pace last year and you're shocked that they aren't doing it again? Were you shocked they didn't go 0-16 in 2009 too?

I'm shocked they've hooked up for exactly zero touchdowns in 5 games, yes. In fact, other than Cam to Steve Smith, I don't think there's another QB/WR1 combination in the NFL that hasn't hooked up for a touchdown reception.

 

[footballnerd]

Stafford and others needs to get it together. Once other positions produce mega will get free in the endzone. Petticure dropping TDs dont help either.

 

[Statcruncher]

If you go off the depth charts at the start of the season:

Miami - Bess & Tannehill

Jacksonville - Blackmon & Gabbert

Carolina - Smith & Newton

Possibly Cleveland - Massaquoi & Weeden but I can't remember for certain if Massaquoi started as the #1

 

[stbugs]

This duo was on a blistering record setting pace last year and you're shocked that they aren't doing it again? Were you shocked they didn't go 0-16 in 2009 too?

Talk about completely missing the point. To think that they have been pretty much healthy so far, it is pretty amazing that CJ had 9 TDs through week 5 last year and 1 TD this year. He has more catches and more yards this year through 5 games than this year, so 9 to 1 is a big drop. Stafford also has more yards passing than last year and only one more INT through 5 games, yet he had 4 TDs compared to 13 TDs. That seems pretty amazing to me.So, color me shocked that reception and yardage wise they are doing better than 2011 and they have only 1 INT more, yet they have dropped from 9 and 13 to 1 and 4 TD wise.That tells me that teams have really focused on the red zone and keeping them out of the end zone and have done it really, really well. Not sure if it means buy low and they will explode or if the blueprint works and will continue to work.

 

[Statcruncher]

Maybe the point is that TD's are a random stat that is the most volatile and expecting them to remain somewhat constant from year to year is not accurate?

 

[Grahamburn]

If you go off the depth charts at the start of the season:

Miami - Bess & Tannehill

Jacksonville - Blackmon & Gabbert

Carolina - Smith & Newton

Possibly Cleveland - Massaquoi & Weeden but I can't remember for certain if Massaquoi started as the #1

Detroit - Stafford & Calvin

Clearly one of these doesn't belong, which is kind of the point. TDs may be volatile, but it isn't like the yardage isn't there. Calvin is averaging 111 yards per game. Stafford is averaging 298.6 yards per game. This is a clear statistical anomaly. Especially considering the two players we're talking about.

 

[kegger]

Lions homer here, watch all the games pretty intently.

And I have to say it, Stafford has sucked so far this year.

He tends to start slowly then get warmed up an look exceptional

but so far this year that slowly part is extending further an further.

(Johnsons been dinged, an Pettigrew drops lots, that hasn't helped)

I can not put my finger on it, yah he's been nicked up but I'm not into

using that as an excuse here, I believe he will turn it around, but I am

not sure when that will be.

Got Freeman an Stafford in 1 league, I'm using Freeman on good matchups

till I see true improvement in Staffords play, so Freeman it is this week here.

.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

If you go off the depth charts at the start of the season:

Miami - Bess & Tannehill

Jacksonville - Blackmon & Gabbert

Carolina - Smith & Newton

Possibly Cleveland - Massaquoi & Weeden but I can't remember for certain if Massaquoi started as the #1

Detroit - Stafford & Calvin

Clearly one of these doesn't belong, which is kind of the point. TDs may be volatile, but it isn't like the yardage isn't there. Calvin is averaging 111 yards per game. Stafford is averaging 298.6 yards per game. This is a clear statistical anomaly. Especially considering the two players we're talking about.

Mega has had 2 catches at least inside the 5, one was to t he one... He also has dropped on in the end zone (he's human WhO knew) I say buy low. Stafford has to play better, and our defense is not progressed like we would have hoped. Plus, for a guy on a TD drought, he has still been helping me win every week.

 

[rockaction]

I've seen buy low mentioned twice (I think one was edited). I wouldn't sell at this point in order to be bought low. Johnson is still in the top ten in receiving points per game, so I'm not sure who I'd give him up for, other than Foster or Rice. He's still probably a consensus top-ten guy.

 

[Grahamburn]

I've seen buy low mentioned twice (I think one was edited). I wouldn't sell at this point in order to be bought low. Johnson is still in the top ten in receiving points per game, so I'm not sure who I'd give him up for, other than Foster or Rice. He's still probably a consensus top-ten guy.

I doubt anyone would let Calvin go for less than equal value, but Stafford could be a player to target.

 

[Chazzhawk]

Entering week 7 in 2011 this combination had produced 24 touchdowns. 9 for Calvin, and 15 for Stafford.

So far in 2012 entering week 7 they have yet to hook up for a touchdown reception, and they have a measly 5 combined on the season. Stafford has 4 and the best red zone threat at WR in the NFL has 1. ONE!

I'm truly shocked by this lack of production. I don't see teams defending Johnson any differently than they were in 2011. The offensive personnel is basically the same. The offensive philosophy doesn't seem to have changed.

These guys were on fire to end 2011. It's absolutely amazing none of that chemistry or timing has translated to 2012.

Does anyone have any insight on what might be going on here? What am I missing?

This might be out of the box but hear me out. They miss Jahvid Best more than anyone would have thought. He isn't a great back, as a matter of fact I would put him in the bottom have of starting backs in the league, but he was perfect for this offense. Safeties couldn't play as deep because if Best caught a swing pass or dump off he could turn a 6 yards pass into 30+ yards at anytime. Also linebackers couldn't drop as deep into coverage because of the same fear. So not only is the deep part of the field gone but now linebackers are taking away the 8 to 15 yard passes as well. If you think I am nuts look at the stats since the start of last year.Lions were 5 - 1 in games Best played, without Best they are 7 - 9

Best averaged 111 yards per game from scrimmage and .5 touchdowns, as well as averaging over 4.5 yards per carry

The other starting Detroit running backs in that time are Kevin Smith has averaged 77 yards a game but he did average a touchdown a game and 4.6 ypc, Leshoure has averaged 97 yards a game and .33 touchdowns, while averaging under 4 ypc.

I remember all summer long everyone saying the Lions have to lock up Calvin for the future, they have the key to the offense and the reason Stafford turned the corner. I think they had the key to the offense, I think the problem was we were all focused on the wrong guy.

 

[Statcruncher]

If you go off the depth charts at the start of the season:

Miami - Bess & Tannehill

Jacksonville - Blackmon & Gabbert

Carolina - Smith & Newton

Possibly Cleveland - Massaquoi & Weeden but I can't remember for certain if Massaquoi started as the #1

Detroit - Stafford & Calvin

Clearly one of these doesn't belong, which is kind of the point. TDs may be volatile, but it isn't like the yardage isn't there. Calvin is averaging 111 yards per game. Stafford is averaging 298.6 yards per game. This is a clear statistical anomaly. Especially considering the two players we're talking about.

Your bolded statement shows the Detroit passing game is doing fine. It's just that the wildly variable TD's are not there. Yardage is somewhat predictable, TD's are are mostly luck. If this year is a clear statistical anomaly, then last year's TD's were also a clear statistical anomaly. There were too many last year, there are too few this year. TD's are predominantly luck.

 

[Reepicheep]

Maybe the point is that TD's are a random stat that is the most volatile and expecting them to remain somewhat constant from year to year is not accurate?

But surely you'll concede that it was a reasonable expectation for Stafford and Johnson to hook up for at least one TD in the first six weeks of the season, right? It's not like he's in here complaining that they have 4 TDs and he was expecting 8 by now. We're talking about a goose egg.

 

[Mainevent]

Madden Curse in full effect, has to be it.

 

[Statcruncher]

Maybe the point is that TD's are a random stat that is the most volatile and expecting them to remain somewhat constant from year to year is not accurate?

But surely you'll concede that it was a reasonable expectation for Stafford and Johnson to hook up for at least one TD in the first six weeks of the season, right? It's not like he's in here complaining that they have 4 TDs and he was expecting 8 by now. We're talking about a goose egg.

Yes, it was a reasonable expectation. However I'm not "truly shocked" that through 5 games (6 if you count the bye) Megatron has only 1 receiving TD. If he were averaging 35 yards per game that might truly shock me, but fluctuating/unpredictable TD totals do not.Last year he also had a 5 week stretch (6 if you count the bye) where he scored only 1 TD and averaged just 63 yards per game. That being said he's still the 6th highest ranked WR in fantasy points per game in my league so his performance is right in line with his draft slot and he's probably got more upside left if the TD's start to roll in.

 

[BlueBlazer05]

Calvin had a TD in the Eagles game, but he got called for offensive PI. Maybe a bit ticky-tack, but Celek got called for something similar earlier in the game.

Teams have been game-planning to take away the deep stuff from Detroit all year. D-coordinators are daring the Lions to run the ball and throw short passes in the hope that they eventually self-destruct (incompletions, turnovers, settling for FG's, etc) before reaching the end zone. So far, it's worked because the Lions haven't run the ball as well as they would've liked against 6 and 7-man fronts. Leshoure and Bell do get consistent yardage, but they have a hard time breaking those long runs that bump up the rushing averages.

Also, Stafford's accuracy comes and goes, especially when you put pressure on him. He's never gonna be a Brady/Peyton/Brees/Rodgers precision passer. He does do the sidearm thing, but sometimes that's because it's the only way he can get the ball to his intended target. He does need more help though. Pettigrew should be making a killing in the red zone, but instead, he's killing Stafford with all these drops. Titus Young is still a knucklehead and dropped a long pass against Philly.

 

[footballnerd]

I've seen buy low mentioned twice (I think one was edited). I wouldn't sell at this point in order to be bought low. Johnson is still in the top ten in receiving points per game, so I'm not sure who I'd give him up for, other than Foster or Rice. He's still probably a consensus top-ten guy.

No kidding, dude just came off a 135 game. If thats a low.....championships all around

 

[BespokeJort]

Just packaged Vincent Jackson and Sproles for Calvin in a redraft to a guy who badly needed an RB2...granted not the sharkiest of redrafts but it's worth dangling something as at least some people are selling

 

[Sweetness_34]

This is why you do not chase career points production from year before. The price to get that player goes up the roof and the variance kills you

 

[rockaction]

This is why you do not chase career points production from year before. The price to get that player goes up the roof and the variance kills you

If you're talking Stafford, okay. But Johnson was sixth in 2010, too, with Shaun Hill as his QB, IIRC. Not sure who is chasing points. He has averaged more than anyone the past two years, I think, by a decent amount.

 

[Fly]

Best thread title of the week

Show Me Your TDs is the name of one of the franchises in my dynasty league. Just spectacular.ETA: I'm a Stafford owner and frustrated as hell. It's not just to Calvin. He's out of whack with every one of his receivers.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Stafford is over rated.

 

[Grahamburn]

Best thread title of the week

Show Me Your TDs is the name of one of the franchises in my dynasty league. Just spectacular.

It's a pretty common name for fantasy teams. It also related well to the topic. Win/win.The point regarding Jahvid Best is something I contemplated as well. When Stafford/Calvin started the 2011 season on fire Best was in the lineup. Calvin went through his lull in production when Best left.The offense seemed to adjust to the loss of Best though, and the Lions finished the season on quite a tear. For whatever reason so far this season it hasn't been there.I'm sure it's effecting all of their fantasy owners. I rolled to a 14-2 record and an easy championship in 2011 in the keeper league where I own Stafford and Calvin. They were unstoppable last year. It's a complete 180 in 2012.