Starting a QB based on WR matchups (1 Viewer)

[theToes]

I managed to squeek into the playoffs and I have an interesting situation with the team I am playing this weekend. This team starts 2 WR's and the TE from the Texans. (Johnson, Walter, Daniels)

During the WW period this week I picked up Schaub. I have been starting Eli most of the season after Brady played all of 15 minutes for my team.

Is is a good move to start the qb that will be throwing to 3 out of his 4 WR's or is that over managing?

 

[puckalicious]

I typically pick my starting lineup based on who will get me the most points, but thats just me.

If you feel strongly that Schaub will do better than Eli, then go for it. If you think they're roughly equal, then I can't fault you for picking Schaub, but I sure wouldn't use this as the main reason to choose your QB.

 

[glumpy]

Best play first, of course. As far as what you're asking though--I think you've got it backwards. Unless you're yardage scoring is not weighted to receiving yards then you're actually losing with this; what you want instead is to match your WR's to your opponent's QB. Consider--if his WR's get all the TDs thrown by your QB, then the only thing left is yardage. With the majority of leagues a QB's passing yards do not count as much as the receiving yards for his WR's.

Case in point: Week 11, Brees @ KC. in my league's scoring Brees scored 19.64. His only touchdown went to Lance Moore, who scored 20.20 while receiving less than half the passing yards.

 

[PosterNutBag]

As puckalicious says, you want to start the QB who you think will score the most points...obviously!

But, I can see playing that game if you think they are about even. It all depends on how you view your matchup with him, though. If you think that keeping pace with him is the way to go then maybe Schaub is a good idea. If you think you might need a little boost over him from somewhere to beat him then you won't get that with Schaub since any boost he would see, your opponent would also see.

It all boils down to overthinking things, IMO. I think Eli is the better start this week, personally. Schaub should be knocking off the rust plus he plays against a team that has not been good against the run, but has been decent against the pass. Plus who knows what the GB weather could be like on Sunday.

 

[PosterNutBag]

Best play first, of course. As far as what you're asking though--I think you've got it backwards. Unless you're yardage scoring is not weighted to receiving yards then you're actually losing with this; what you want instead is to match your WR's to your opponent's QB. Consider--if his WR's get all the TDs thrown by your QB, then the only thing left is yardage. With the majority of leagues a QB's passing yards do not count as much as the receiving yards for his WR's. Case in point: Week 11, Brees @ KC. in my league's scoring Brees scored 19.64. His only touchdown went to Lance Moore, who scored 20.20 while receiving less than half the passing yards.

That's a good point, but if those WRs blow up with a total of 3-4 TDs then you know the QB has them. Sure you lose out on the yardage points, but you are keeping pace with blow up games from his other players. You are correct that the opponent outscores him in this case, but it's about not falling behind as far as the way I think about it.That said, Eli looks like a better play this week to me.

 

[Muahahaha]

I would start Schaub based on what you have described. As you pointed out, all three of those dudes can't go off unless Schaub goes off. It is a very good hedge. Sometimes giving up upside to hedge yourself is the right call.

It's not really in the Giants gameplan to have Eli win games for them. They get ahead and then run, run, run. Houston-GB has shootout written all over it. I am pretty certain Schaub will have more attempts in the 4th quarter than Eli.

 

[The_Man]

If the guy starts AJohnson, Walter, and Owen Daniel, you are crazy not to start Schaub. If those guys go off, your QB has pretty much matched 3 of his players. If they struggle, then he's hurting and you're only out the difference between what Eli and Schaub score.

Plus -- Slaton is a good pass-catching RB. If he scores even one receiving TD, then you're getting the QB points, and 3 of your opponent's players are getting shut out.

 

[FUBAR]

This is the rare time when I'd start the QB to counter the WR/TEs. Your QB will score less than his 3 receivers, but they usually do. This is the safe play, knowing that any big games would be countered.

How do you match up elsewhere? Assuming the rest of your team could/should beat his, it would be stupid not to start Schaub.

 

[Breesisdaman]

Your playing Schaub is not going to change how many WR points your opponent gets but it may affect how many QB points you get because Eli is a better play.

 

[CrossEyed]

If the guy starts AJohnson, Walter, and Owen Daniel, you are crazy not to start Schaub. If those guys go off, your QB has pretty much matched 3 of his players. If they struggle, then he's hurting and you're only out the difference between what Eli and Schaub score.Plus -- Slaton is a good pass-catching RB. If he scores even one receiving TD, then you're getting the QB points, and 3 of your opponent's players are getting shut out.

I would absolutely start Schaub. If his receivers go off you are guaranteed to have a good game by your QB. If Schaub stinks you are guranteed to be playing against a team with 3 players that do nothing. I think it's a good strategy.

 

[puckalicious]

If the guy starts AJohnson, Walter, and Owen Daniel, you are crazy not to start Schaub. If those guys go off, your QB has pretty much matched 3 of his players. If they struggle, then he's hurting and you're only out the difference between what Eli and Schaub score.Plus -- Slaton is a good pass-catching RB. If he scores even one receiving TD, then you're getting the QB points, and 3 of your opponent's players are getting shut out.

I would absolutely start Schaub. If his receivers go off you are guaranteed to have a good game by your QB. If Schaub stinks you are guranteed to be playing against a team with 3 players that do nothing. I think it's a good strategy.

Then I guess it depends on your scoring system. For me it is not worth starting an inferior QB just because my opponent has the WR's. Let's say they combine for 250yds and no TD's. That's 25 points for him, and only 10 for me. Meanwhile Eli goes off for 20 points...But if you think both QB's will do rather similar (as one FBG staffer does), then I agree the strategy would be to start Schaub.

 

[renesauz]

While I generally think it's a bad idea to try to play matchups this way...your opponent has placed virtually all of his eggs in the Houston passing basket. To match three of his receiving options with just your QB is a no-brainer in this case.

I don't see Eli as much better then Schaub this week anyway.

 

[RenegadeGM]

I'd start Eli just based on the fact that Schaub hasn't played for weeks.

Worst case scenario for you if you start Schaub is he comes out rusty and gets the hook for Rosenfels... and his three options still score the points, from another QB.

Manning is a pretty safe play.

 

[glumpy]

I would start Schaub based on what you have described. As you pointed out, all three of those dudes can't go off unless Schaub goes off. It is a very good hedge. Sometimes giving up upside to hedge yourself is the right call.It's not really in the Giants gameplan to have Eli win games for them. They get ahead and then run, run, run. Houston-GB has shootout written all over it. I am pretty certain Schaub will have more attempts in the 4th quarter than Eli.

Good hedge, yes. The key to the decision is how the remaining players match up. If they look favorable then the safety play can work--especially since it effectively takes out three receivers with the one QB.

 

[puckalicious]

I'd start Eli just based on the fact that Schaub hasn't played for weeks.Worst case scenario for you if you start Schaub is he comes out rusty and gets the hook for Rosenfels... and his three options still score the points, from another QB.Manning is a pretty safe play.

This is important to consider too.

 

[gardener]

There should not even be a debate about this...play the QB you think will score the most points. The "offsetting" argument often comes up and is always the wrong decision. Rationale:

Okay, so the Houston trio scores 3 passing TDs...and if you play Schaub you get all of them. The Houston trio could also score 0 passing yards and Schuab score near nothing. Yes...they would partially offset, but you still play the QB who should score the most regardless.

Use a pretty solid NFL week: 200+ yards, 2 TDs makes a good week. Who is more likely to get these? So Houston WRs score 2 TDs...as does Schaub. But you thought Eli would throw for 250 yards and 2 TDS. You gain points for the additional 50 yards that Eli tosses. He scores more points, period. If you used Schab to try and offset the WR points, you end up with fewer points than you would having played Eli...and an even wider spread.

The ONLY time to consider playing match-ups are when the two QBs are expected to be equal...than you can play the QB of choice. But as long as you expect one to be marginally better than the other, you simply line up the QB who will score more. The goal is to score the most points possible, not to try and offset your opponents points. When you do this, you help your opponent by benching your better QB.

Note: this is also true for WR. You simply play those who are expected to get more points.

 

[CrossEyed]

Sure hope you started Schaub.

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

Bumping this for further analysis/input on this topic from the viewpoint of starting WR/TEs of your opponent's QB. Their is some analysis earlier in the thread indicating this is a greater value option, but would like some other opinions on that viewpoins, as I am potentially faced with this scenario this week.

 

[chris1969]

Those of you interested in this strategy, may want to look at this thread.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=445984

 

[renesauz]

Bumping this for further analysis/input on this topic from the viewpoint of starting WR/TEs of your opponent's QB. Their is some analysis earlier in the thread indicating this is a greater value option, but would like some other opinions on that viewpoins, as I am potentially faced with this scenario this week.

As I wrote earlier, and several others said...generally just pick the QB you expect to have a better week.Also as I wrote earlier...when your opponent has gone stupid on you, and placed all his key recieivng hopes on the same team (THREE!!!????), feel free to adjust. NEVER use this method to match a single receiver/QB. Use as a last tiebreak to match 2 (GOOD) receivers.