Steve Smith: Why is he the consensus #1 receiver? (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

Posted this on the blog today, but I wanted to open up the discussion to the Shark Pool:

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/09/st...nsus-1-ranking/

Steve Smith is comfortably atop the consensus fantasy WR rankings. He’s #1 in our expert rankings. He’s #1 in the consensus ADP data we compile. And he’s been the 1st WR off the board in every draft I’ve participated in save for one (when he went 2nd, and I took Chad Johnson 1st).

While I’m not going to suggest that Steve Smith isn’t a bonafide stud receiver, I am left scratching my head over the universal acceptance of Smith as the top fantasy pass-catcher.

* In 2005, Smith completed the triple crown of receiving

o 1st in receptions (103)

o 1st in yards (1,563)

o 1st in TDs (12)

* Not surprisingly, he ranked as the top fantasy WR

But here’s the thing, that year seems like very much the anomaly. Smith is entering his seventh year in the league, and his numbers have never come close to approximating that magical 2005 campaign:

* 2001: 10 receptions for 154 yards and 0 TDs [WR114]

* 2002: 54 receptions for 872 yards and 3 TDs [WR42]

* 2003: 88 receptions for 1,110 yards and 7 TDs [WR15]

* 2004: 6 receptions for 60 yards and 0 TDs [WR141]

* 2005: 103 receptions for 1,563 yards and 12 TDs [WR1]

* 2006: 83 receptions for 1,166 yards and 8 TDs [WR8]

As you can see from his fantasy ranking [in parentheses], Smith has been a good, albeit not great receiver. In his three healthy seasons since becoming the full-time starter, he’s ranked 1st, 8th and 15th. Solid numbers that argue for him being considered a tried and true fantasy WR1, but why is he such a lock to finish 1st in people’s minds?

Compare Smith’s fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time starter, against other receivers in the league:

Rank First Last YRs Games Recs Yards TDs FPTs PtsPG

1 Terrell Owens 2003–2006 52 289 4245 42 676.0 13.00

2 Torry Holt 2003–2006 62 406 5587 41 805.4 12.99

3 Marvin Harrison 2003–2006 62 357 4897 49 784.0 12.65

4 Steve Smith 2003–2006 47 280 3899 27 576.7 12.27

5 Chad Johnson 2003–2006 64 369 5430 35 762.6 11.92

6 Randy Moss 2003–2006 58 262 3957 41 644.4 11.11

7 Marques Colston 2006–2006 14 70 1038 8 151.8 10.84

8 Darrell Jackson 2003–2006 51 256 3774 29 552.1 10.83

9 Anquan Boldin 2003–2006 56 342 4605 20 591.1 10.56

10 Javon Walker 2003–2006 49 203 3209 29 513.3 10.48

11 Larry Fitzgerald 2004–2006 45 230 3135 24 463.0 10.29

12 Santana Moss 2003–2006 61 258 4216 30 618.0 10.13

13 Hines Ward 2003–2006 61 318 4117 31 616.3 10.10

14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 2004–2006 44 241 3015 20 439.4 9.99

15 Reggie Wayne 2003–2006 64 314 4413 33 638.9 9.98

16 Joe Horn 2003–2006 54 258 3705 26 528.7 9.79

17 Roy Williams 2004–2006 43 181 2814 23 419.7 9.76

18 Chris Chambers 2003–2006 63 274 3656 33 592.9 9.41

19 Donald Driver 2003–2006 63 314 4345 24 586.9 9.32

20 Lee Evans 2004–2006 48 178 2878 24 444.1 9.25

21 Plaxico Burress 2003–2006 58 234 3760 26 531.3 9.16

22 Jimmy Smith 2003–2005 44 198 3000 16 396.0 9.00

23 Muhsin Muhammad 2003–2006 62 271 3855 28 554.8 8.95

24 Eddie Kennison 2003–2006 62 239 3901 23 536.4 8.65

25 Joey Galloway 2003–2006 57 212 3432 24 492.6 8.64

Again, Smith is a stud…he’s put up the 4th most fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time NFL starter. But last time I checked, Terrell Owens, Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison were still playing at a high level and are in dynamic offensive systems. Chad Johnson is right behind him, too.

Would I say ranking Smith #1 is illogical? NO.

Would I say others deserve as much, if not more consideration for the top spot? ABSOLUTELY.

 

[Keg]

* In 2005, Smith completed the triple crown of receiving

o 1st in receptions (103)

o 1st in yards (1,563)

o 1st in TDs (12)

* Not surprisingly, he ranked as the top fantasy WR

But here’s the thing, that year seems like very much the anomaly. Smith is entering his seventh year in the league, and his numbers have never come close to approximating that magical 2005 campaign:

Excluding 2004 due to the broken bone in his 1st game!This is how his last 52 games shape up

Year.........Games.........Catches........Yards.........TDs.

2003..........12.................79............979............6

03Playoffs...4.................18.............404...........3

2005..........16................103..........1563..........13

05Playoffs....4.................36............466............5

2006..........16*.................83...........1166...........8

Totals.........52...............319..........4578..........35

AVERAGES: 16................98...........1408..........10.76

*includes the 2 games he was out

so his avg the last 52 games is 98/1408/11 and his "anomaly" of a season is 103/1563/12

even if you remove that year his averages are: 96/1340/10

 

[switz]

Again, Smith is a stud…he’s put up the 4th most fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time NFL starter. But last time I checked, Terrell Owens, Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison were still playing at a high level and are in dynamic offensive systems. Chad Johnson is right behind him, too.Would I say ranking Smith #1 is illogical? NO.Would I say others deserve as much, if not more consideration for the top spot? ABSOLUTELY.

I guess you kinda sum it up there. Smith is the safest pick at #1. That doens't mean he's guaranteed to finish there. But -Harrison is aging, and competes with Wayne and now Gonzales for catchesHolt puts up yardage, but never enough TDs to be the #1 overallOwens has all those lingering injury problemsCJ competes with TJ for catches, even having some on these boards wondering if TJ should be picked first or those two...Other players that could end up #1?Boldin and Fitz both are in a system (I guess we'll see with Whisenhunt) and have the talent, but they also have each other, and Bryant JohnsonSo if you had to pick a WR first - which of those do you tihnk has the least obstacles to overcome to finish #1?

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

I completely agree. I like S.Smith but there is no way I would take him as the #1 WR. Its not that I do not like Steve Smith, I hate Delhomme. I have 0 faith in this guy to be a consistent QB. I would much rather take my chances on a guys like Harrison, Wayne, CJ, Holt, or Owens.

 

[Routilla]

Posted this on the blog today, but I wanted to open up the discussion to the Shark Pool:

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/09/st...nsus-1-ranking/

Steve Smith is comfortably atop the consensus fantasy WR rankings. He’s #1 in our expert rankings. He’s #1 in the consensus ADP data we compile. And he’s been the 1st WR off the board in every draft I’ve participated in save for one (when he went 2nd, and I took Chad Johnson 1st).

While I’m not going to suggest that Steve Smith isn’t a bonafide stud receiver, I am left scratching my head over the universal acceptance of Smith as the top fantasy pass-catcher.

* In 2005, Smith completed the triple crown of receiving

o 1st in receptions (103)

o 1st in yards (1,563)

o 1st in TDs (12)

* Not surprisingly, he ranked as the top fantasy WR

But here’s the thing, that year seems like very much the anomaly. Smith is entering his seventh year in the league, and his numbers have never come close to approximating that magical 2005 campaign:

* 2001: 10 receptions for 154 yards and 0 TDs [WR114]

* 2002: 54 receptions for 872 yards and 3 TDs [WR42]

* 2003: 88 receptions for 1,110 yards and 7 TDs [WR15]

* 2004: 6 receptions for 60 yards and 0 TDs [WR141]

* 2005: 103 receptions for 1,563 yards and 12 TDs [WR1]

* 2006: 83 receptions for 1,166 yards and 8 TDs [WR8]

As you can see from his fantasy ranking [in parentheses], Smith has been a good, albeit not great receiver. In his three healthy seasons since becoming the full-time starter, he’s ranked 1st, 8th and 15th. Solid numbers that argue for him being considered a tried and true fantasy WR1, but why is he such a lock to finish 1st in people’s minds?

Compare Smith’s fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time starter, against other receivers in the league:

Rank First Last YRs Games Recs Yards TDs FPTs PtsPG

1 Terrell Owens 2003–2006 52 289 4245 42 676.0 13.00

2 Torry Holt 2003–2006 62 406 5587 41 805.4 12.99

3 Marvin Harrison 2003–2006 62 357 4897 49 784.0 12.65

4 Steve Smith 2003–2006 47 280 3899 27 576.7 12.27

5 Chad Johnson 2003–2006 64 369 5430 35 762.6 11.92

6 Randy Moss 2003–2006 58 262 3957 41 644.4 11.11

7 Marques Colston 2006–2006 14 70 1038 8 151.8 10.84

8 Darrell Jackson 2003–2006 51 256 3774 29 552.1 10.83

9 Anquan Boldin 2003–2006 56 342 4605 20 591.1 10.56

10 Javon Walker 2003–2006 49 203 3209 29 513.3 10.48

11 Larry Fitzgerald 2004–2006 45 230 3135 24 463.0 10.29

12 Santana Moss 2003–2006 61 258 4216 30 618.0 10.13

13 Hines Ward 2003–2006 61 318 4117 31 616.3 10.10

14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 2004–2006 44 241 3015 20 439.4 9.99

15 Reggie Wayne 2003–2006 64 314 4413 33 638.9 9.98

16 Joe Horn 2003–2006 54 258 3705 26 528.7 9.79

17 Roy Williams 2004–2006 43 181 2814 23 419.7 9.76

18 Chris Chambers 2003–2006 63 274 3656 33 592.9 9.41

19 Donald Driver 2003–2006 63 314 4345 24 586.9 9.32

20 Lee Evans 2004–2006 48 178 2878 24 444.1 9.25

21 Plaxico Burress 2003–2006 58 234 3760 26 531.3 9.16

22 Jimmy Smith 2003–2005 44 198 3000 16 396.0 9.00

23 Muhsin Muhammad 2003–2006 62 271 3855 28 554.8 8.95

24 Eddie Kennison 2003–2006 62 239 3901 23 536.4 8.65

25 Joey Galloway 2003–2006 57 212 3432 24 492.6 8.64

Again, Smith is a stud…he’s put up the 4th most fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time NFL starter. But last time I checked, Terrell Owens, Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison were still playing at a high level and are in dynamic offensive systems. Chad Johnson is right behind him, too.

Would I say ranking Smith #1 is illogical? NO.

Would I say others deserve as much, if not more consideration for the top spot? ABSOLUTELY.

I think all of these guys could finish #1. You have to start with a name somewhere and over the last 2 seasons Smitty has the best #s. If T.O. had the best #s over that span his name would probably be the first mentioned when making the list, same goes for each of the other guys. I do think anyone who reaches for ANY of the top guys such as T.O., Harrison, Holt, CJ, Smitty etc. will be making a mistake unless you KNOW the WRs are about to come off the board and by not reaching then you get none of them. I pick towards the end of rd 2 so I know I'm getting one of them for sure, maybe 2. Anyone picking at the end of rd1/beginning of rd 2 has to ask themselves just how important do they think it will be to land one of them. Because they will all be gone when it gets back to them in rd 3.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think it's a combination of the following:

- other tier one WRs have bigger question marks

- guaranteed obscene target numbers

That being said if I want PPG numbers I'd take T.O.

If I want safe numbers I take Wayne/Harrison.

 

[David Yudkin]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.

1 Steve Smith 413.50

2 Marvin Harrison 395.20

3 Chad Johnson 381.80

4 Torry Holt 366.10

5 Joey Galloway 337.70

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If I had to give one answer it's becuase he is a) fully healthy and b)has the potential to blow up and get bigger numbers than everyone else because he'll get more targets.Breaking down what you had on a year by year basis:

2001: 10 receptions for 154 yards and 0 TDs [WR114]2002: 54 receptions for 872 yards and 3 TDs [WR42]

As everyone knows, rookie WRs rarely put up numbers. Those are respectable #s for his 2nd year.

2003: 88 receptions for 1,110 yards and 7 TDs [WR15]

Solid year. From what I can gather from NFL.com, he only started 11 games. His stats are pedestrian the first four, but then he blew up the 5th and started from that point on, I believe.

2004: 6 receptions for 60 yards and 0 TDs [WR141]

Broken leg.

2005: 103 receptions for 1,563 yards and 12 TDs [WR1]

Nobody else to throw to = career year.

2006: 83 receptions for 1,166 yards and 8 TDs [WR8]

Hampered early by a hamstring tweaked in camp. Plus Keyshawn stole catches.Now comparing head to head - each of the other top guys can be considered to have a guy opposite him that will take catches away:CJ - HoushHarrison - WayneHolt - BruceOwens - GlennFitzgerald - BoldinPut those two together, and Smith has shown top talent when healthy and doesn't have to share catches.

 

[LHUCKS]

If I had to give one answer it's becuase he is a) fully healthy and b)has the potential to blow up and get bigger numbers than everyone else because he'll get more targets.

Exactly what I said.

 

[Banger]

I guess you kinda sum it up there. Smith is the safest pick at #1.

Why is he the safest? Part of being safe IMO is being on the field and in the last 3 years he's played 1, 16 and 14 games (65%). Holt on the other hand has missed 2 games in his entire career (8 seasons). Even when he's banged up, he gets out there and plays. Holt is my #1 wr.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If I had to give one answer it's becuase he is a) fully healthy and b)has the potential to blow up and get bigger numbers than everyone else because he'll get more targets.

Exactly what I said.

I started responding when there were no other responses.

 

[fightingillini]

Smith is my #1 WR, because Jake Delhomme looks for him EVERY TIME HE THROWS A PASS......alright, I am exaggerating here, but it's pretty close to every time. I live in CAR, and I saw this each time that I went to a Panthers game. In 2006, Smith put up stud numbers during the time that he and Delhomme were healthy. He had 83/1166/8 TD (also had 1 rush TD) and he missed two games and Delhomme missed 3......and Smith was useless with Weinke at QB.

Harrison has to compete with Wayne for catches, Ocho Cinco has to compete with Housh for catches. Holt competes with Bruce and Jackson for catches. Owens can go AWOL at any time, and injury prone. Sure, having a stud WR on the other side of the ball helps with coverage....but Smith has proven to consistenly beat double teams.

But I understand that anyone of Smith, Harrison, Wayne, Ocho Cinco, Holt, or Owens could nab the #1WR spot at the end of the year. Taking the 1st WR this year doesn't net much value at all......hence Smith is slighly overvalued.

 

[Jason Wood]

Again, Smith is a stud…he’s put up the 4th most fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time NFL starter. But last time I checked, Terrell Owens, Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison were still playing at a high level and are in dynamic offensive systems. Chad Johnson is right behind him, too.

Would I say ranking Smith #1 is illogical? NO.

Would I say others deserve as much, if not more consideration for the top spot? ABSOLUTELY.

I guess you kinda sum it up there. Smith is the safest pick at #1. That doens't mean he's guaranteed to finish there. But -

Harrison is aging, and competes with Wayne and now Gonzales for catches

Harrison has outperformed in three of the last four years

Holt puts up yardage, but never enough TDs to be the #1 overall

Holt put up 12, 9 and 10 TDs in 2003, 2005, and 2006, respectively...Smith put up 7, 12 and 8 in those same seasons

Owens has all those lingering injury problems

Smith has missed 17 games as a starter, including two last year. Owens missed 12 over that span, including ZERO last year.

CJ competes with TJ for catches, even having some on these boards wondering if TJ should be picked first or those two...

I've never seen evidence that competing with another stud WR is problematic...witness Boldin/Fitz, Wayne/Harrison, CJ/Housh, Carter/Moss, Bruce/Holt, etc...

Other players that could end up #1?

Boldin and Fitz both are in a system (I guess we'll see with Whisenhunt) and have the talent, but they also have each other, and Bryant Johnson

So if you had to pick a WR first - which of those do you tihnk has the least obstacles to overcome to finish #1?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL so there's really no reason why he shouldn't be consider the best wide receiver in fantasy football.

Look at the last 3 seasons. The Carolina Panthers #1 wide receiver has been a fantasy beast. Muhsin Muhammad in 04 and Steve Smith the next 2 seasons were either ranked 1st or 2nd in points per game.

So Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL and plays with a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who would throw every pass his way if he could. There's no question in my mind that he's the best wide receiver out there fantasy or otherwise.

 

[Keg]

If I had to give one answer it's becuase he is a) fully healthy and b)has the potential to blow up and get bigger numbers than everyone else because he'll get more targets.Breaking down what you had on a year by year basis:

2001: 10 receptions for 154 yards and 0 TDs [WR114]2002: 54 receptions for 872 yards and 3 TDs [WR42]

As everyone knows, rookie WRs rarely put up numbers. Those are respectable #s for his 2nd year.

2003: 88 receptions for 1,110 yards and 7 TDs [WR15]

Solid year. From what I can gather from NFL.com, he only started 11 games. His stats are pedestrian the first four, but then he blew up the 5th and started from that point on, I believe.

2004: 6 receptions for 60 yards and 0 TDs [WR141]

Broken leg.

2005: 103 receptions for 1,563 yards and 12 TDs [WR1]

Nobody else to throw to = career year.

2006: 83 receptions for 1,166 yards and 8 TDs [WR8]

Hampered early by a hamstring tweaked in camp. Plus Keyshawn stole catches.Now comparing head to head - each of the other top guys can be considered to have a guy opposite him that will take catches away:CJ - HoushHarrison - WayneHolt - BruceOwens - GlennFitzgerald - BoldinPut those two together, and Smith has shown top talent when healthy and doesn't have to share catches.

I agree with you on his stats from 2002 and I used from his 5th game on in 2003 in my break down but even if you use all 16 games in 2003 til the present including playoff games his avg for a 16 game season is 95/1345/10(i did exclude his 1 catch 60 yard effort due to his broken leg since that isnt really very representative...but i did include his 2 missed games last yr)

 

[Andy Dufresne]

The #1 WR SHOULD be Marvin Harrison until he proves otherwise. But the problem is there's always the nagging thought of "this is the year he slows down."

Of course, I've thought that for the last three seasons now!

 

[LHUCKS]

But I understand that anyone of Smith, Harrison, Wayne, Ocho Cinco, Holt, or Owens could nab the #1WR spot at the end of the year. Taking the 1st WR this year doesn't net much value at all......hence Smith is slighly overvalued.

I'm going to disagree a bit here.I believe T.O., ocho cinco and Smith have the highest ceilings...which is why I don't believe they are overvalued as the top WRs off the board.Again, a lot of this ties into your "risk appetite"...some situations merit high ceiling guys, others merit high floor guys. I personally draft agressively in H2H leagues and would much rather have a Steve Smith than a Torry Holt.

 

[Jason Wood]

Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL so there's really no reason why he shouldn't be consider wide receiver in fantasy football.Look at the last 3 seasons. The Carolina Panthers #1 wide receiver has been a fantasy beast. Muhsin Muhammad in 04 and Steve Smith the next 2 seasons were either ranked 1st or 2nd in points per game.So Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL and plays with a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who would throw every pass his way if he could. There's no question in my mind that he's the best wide receiver out there fantasy or otherwise.

I'm not sure I buy into the "he's the best wide receiver in the NFL" but that's entirely not the point of this discussion, just whether he's the best FANTASY receiver in the NFL. As to Delhomme locking onto him, I think that's a real problem for the Panthers and is an issue they most definitely want to see Delhomme improve upon. If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.And just to be clear for anyone that's not a subscriber and therefore can't access our rankings, I have Smith ranked 3rd currently...so I'm not saying he's a bust, just that I think the universal acceptance of him as the clear #1 hints at a lot of group think because the top 5 or 6 receivers really all have fair cases to be made.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

And maybe it's just me but I'd rather lose without T.O. than win with him. He could catch 200/2500/40 and I wouldn't care that he was on another team.

I'd be impressed, but I wouldn't care.

 

[fightingillini]

I've never seen evidence that competing with another stud WR is problematic...witness Boldin/Fitz, Wayne/Harrison, CJ/Housh, Carter/Moss, Bruce/Holt, etc...

Each of these duos is stealing from each other, therefore limiting their upside somewhat. Smith has the best chance of any of the top receivers to put up over 100 catches, over 1500 yds receiving, and over 11-12 TDs, and if he and Delhomme are healthy, is a virtual lock for 90+ catches, 1300+ yds, and 10+ TDs. Smith is the focal part of the CAR offense.....they make sure he gets the ball.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.

Why would that be horrible? Andre Johnson caught 103 passes last year with Carr locked onto him.I don't think Carr goes to Carolina and starts magically spreading the ball around.

 

[Keg]

when someone breaks a leg in football it really is a rare and unusual occurrence...it shows nothing with regards to being injury prone and really holds no water in trying to make smitty look like less of a WR then he is. I doubt you will be able to find many WRs that have ever had a 52-56 game span like steve smith has(and no i am not gonna go and ck either )

 

[switz]

Again, Smith is a stud…he’s put up the 4th most fantasy points per game since becoming a full-time NFL starter. But last time I checked, Terrell Owens, Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison were still playing at a high level and are in dynamic offensive systems. Chad Johnson is right behind him, too.

Would I say ranking Smith #1 is illogical? NO.

Would I say others deserve as much, if not more consideration for the top spot? ABSOLUTELY.

I guess you kinda sum it up there. Smith is the safest pick at #1. That doens't mean he's guaranteed to finish there. But -

Harrison is aging, and competes with Wayne and now Gonzales for catches

Harrison has outperformed in three of the last four years

How many of those seasons was Smith playing? How many did he start all 16 games? I think you know where I'm going...

Holt puts up yardage, but never enough TDs to be the #1 overall

Holt put up 12, 9 and 10 TDs in 2003, 2005, and 2006, respectively...Smith put up 7, 12 and 8 in those same seasons

Interesting, I've never thought of Holt as a double digit TD guy, whereas Smith seems like the #1 TD option... maybe false perception on my part

Owens has all those lingering injury problems

Smith has missed 17 games as a starter, including two last year. Owens missed 12 over that span, including ZERO last year.

Haha - how many of those games were due to a broken leg? Versus Owens missing games sporadically.

CJ competes with TJ for catches, even having some on these boards wondering if TJ should be picked first or those two...

I've never seen evidence that competing with another stud WR is problematic...witness Boldin/Fitz, Wayne/Harrison, CJ/Housh, Carter/Moss, Bruce/Holt, etc...

Not probematic, but Smith is THE option, whereas those guys are options....

Other players that could end up #1?

Boldin and Fitz both are in a system (I guess we'll see with Whisenhunt) and have the talent, but they also have each other, and Bryant Johnson

So if you had to pick a WR first - which of those do you tihnk has the least obstacles to overcome to finish #1?

I guess - those are my reasons for having him as #1, thought I agree other players coudl also finish #1. I just don't see Owens or Harrison outperforming Smith this year. And I've never really like Holt.

 

[Banger]

If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.

Why would that be horrible? Andre Johnson caught 103 passes last year with Carr locked onto him.

and they were all about 5 yards down field.

 

[fightingillini]

But I understand that anyone of Smith, Harrison, Wayne, Ocho Cinco, Holt, or Owens could nab the #1WR spot at the end of the year. Taking the 1st WR this year doesn't net much value at all......hence Smith is slighly overvalued.

I'm going to disagree a bit here.I believe T.O., ocho cinco and Smith have the highest ceilings...which is why I don't believe they are overvalued as the top WRs off the board.Again, a lot of this ties into your "risk appetite"...some situations merit high ceiling guys, others merit high floor guys. I personally draft agressively in H2H leagues and would much rather have a Steve Smith than a Torry Holt.

I agree that those three have the highest ceilings, but I don't feel that any of them will distance themselves from the pack enough to warrant taking them with a top 12-15 selection.....which is about where the 1st receiver is being taken. Smith has the most upside, IMO, followed by Owens and then Ocho.But I am with you in that I take Smith over Holt if I have the choice.

 

[Keg]

If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.

Why would that be horrible? Andre Johnson caught 103 passes last year with Carr locked onto him.I don't think Carr goes to Carolina and starts magically spreading the ball around.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Steve Smith: Why is he the consensus #1 receiver?

Because we have watched the man play and have seen what he can do on the field.

While some guys are super (Harrison, Holt, Johnson, etc.) Smith provides an extra "umph" that none of them can match.

Maybe a 32 year old T.O. has something extra from a physical strength/size standpoint, but he has lots of other issues. We prefer the quickness/speed/poof-hes-gone delivery. So the answer is, because of first hand knowledge on what he offers at any given time on the playing field and how it translates to fantasy football.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.

Why would that be horrible? Andre Johnson caught 103 passes last year with Carr locked onto him.

and they were all about 5 yards down field.

I like AJ, but I think Steve Smith can do MUCH more with a 5 yard pattern than Johnson can.

 

[Keg]

If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.

Why would that be horrible? Andre Johnson caught 103 passes last year with Carr locked onto him.

and they were all about 5 yards down field.

I like AJ, but I think Steve Smith can do MUCH more with a 5 yard pattern than Johnson can.

you beat me to it

 

[David Yudkin]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.1 Steve Smith 413.50 2 Marvin Harrison 395.20 3 Chad Johnson 381.80 4 Torry Holt 366.10 5 Joey Galloway 337.70

No one commented on this yet . . .

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.

Why would that be horrible? Andre Johnson caught 103 passes last year with Carr locked onto him.

and they were all about 5 yards down field.

I like AJ, but I think Steve Smith can do MUCH more with a 5 yard pattern than Johnson can.

you beat me to it

Smith is just electric. He's Mike Vick (can we still utter his name?) as a wide receiver.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.1 Steve Smith 413.50 2 Marvin Harrison 395.20 3 Chad Johnson 381.80 4 Torry Holt 366.10 5 Joey Galloway 337.70

No one commented on this yet . . .

 

[Bob Sacamano]

The other WR stealing catches is just part of the equation, though. There's also no stud RB on his team who could take over, making it unnecessary for him to excel for potentially games at a time. If the Panthers are winning - or even competitive - it's because of Smith. You can't necessarily say that about the other WRs. His unique situation is that he, as a WR, is far and away the best offensive option on his team. When healthy, he's THE guy. None of the other players who you have listed as potential #1s fit that bill, with the possible exception now being the head case.

Also, I think people remember the strings of games he's capable of putting together, where he, personally, could be responsible for winning a lot of games for your team. Even those other stud WR are tough to expect that from. Again, when Smith is healthy (And the fact that I've had to say that twice is reason enough to question whether he should be the concensus #1), he's one of the few who can carry your team.

In '06, over the first 10 games in which he played, he had 58 catches for 959 yards and 6 TDs. Only twice in those ten games did he fail to either score a TD or reach 100 receiving yards. He had a similar string of 9-10 games in '05. When people see something like that and think about how inconsistent their WR production is, there's a wow factor that they remember.

 

[Obie Wan]

I completely agree. I like S.Smith but there is no way I would take him as the #1 WR. Its not that I do not like Steve Smith, I hate Delhomme. I have 0 faith in this guy to be a consistent QB. I would much rather take my chances on a guys like Harrison, Wayne, CJ, Holt, or Owens.

but Delhomme has tunnel vision for Smith.May not be good for the team to win games, but it sure doesn;t hurt Smith from a fantasy perspective.

 

[Jason Wood]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.1 Steve Smith 413.50 2 Marvin Harrison 395.20 3 Chad Johnson 381.80 4 Torry Holt 366.10 5 Joey Galloway 337.70

So you have Joey Galloway in your top 10?

 

[Keg]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.1 Steve Smith 413.50 2 Marvin Harrison 395.20 3 Chad Johnson 381.80 4 Torry Holt 366.10 5 Joey Galloway 337.70

No one commented on this yet . . .

No one has commented on this yet either:

so his avg the last 52 games is 98/1408/11 and his "anomaly" of a season is 103/1563/12even if you remove that year his averages are: 96/1340/10

 

[Jason Wood]

Doug Drinen brings up a good point..."BECAUSE SOMEONE HAS TO BE #1"

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/09/wh...eone-has-to-be/

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL so there's really no reason why he shouldn't be consider wide receiver in fantasy football.

Look at the last 3 seasons. The Carolina Panthers #1 wide receiver has been a fantasy beast. Muhsin Muhammad in 04 and Steve Smith the next 2 seasons were either ranked 1st or 2nd in points per game.

So Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL and plays with a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who would throw every pass his way if he could. There's no question in my mind that he's the best wide receiver out there fantasy or otherwise.

I'm not sure I buy into the "he's the best wide receiver in the NFL" but that's entirely not the point of this discussion, just whether he's the best FANTASY receiver in the NFL. As to Delhomme locking onto him, I think that's a real problem for the Panthers and is an issue they most definitely want to see Delhomme improve upon. If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.And just to be clear for anyone that's not a subscriber and therefore can't access our rankings, I have Smith ranked 3rd currently...so I'm not saying he's a bust, just that I think the universal acceptance of him as the clear #1 hints at a lot of group think because the top 5 or 6 receivers really all have fair cases to be made.

LT's the best running back in the league. And he's always at worst among the top 3 running backs every season. Same for Peyton Manning and Antonio Gates at their respective positions. Talent is the key component for fantasy greatness and there isn't a wide receiver in the league who's as talented as Steve Smith. While others might have the same type of receiving skills in terms of speed it isn't even close.As for Jake Delhomme I think you're just looking at stuff that's not there. Delhomme is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He's not getting benched for David Carr. Keyshawn Johnson had 70 catches last season so it wasn't like Delhomme had extreme tunnel vision. If one of your arguments for Steve Smith not being the #1 wide receiver is Jake Delhomme considering that Jake Delhomme is one of the reasons he should well that's just weak.

The only wide receiver who could be #1 instead of him is Marvin Harrison but he's old plus the left tackle for the team is gone. Everybody else is either too old (TO, Holt) and/or just not as good (CJ, Wayne, Fitzgerald) as Steve Smith.

 

[Banger]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.

1 Steve Smith 413.50

2 Marvin Harrison 395.20

3 Chad Johnson 381.80

4 Torry Holt 366.10

5 Joey Galloway 337.70

No one commented on this yet . . .

No one has commented on this yet either:

so his avg the last 52 games is 98/1408/11 and his "anomaly" of a season is 103/1563/12

even if you remove that year his averages are: 96/1340/10

remove Holt's anomoly season of 117-1696-12 and his average over the last 3 years is 96-1297-9.6 tds'. Looks pretty close to me...

 

[Jason Wood]

Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL so there's really no reason why he shouldn't be consider wide receiver in fantasy football.

Look at the last 3 seasons. The Carolina Panthers #1 wide receiver has been a fantasy beast. Muhsin Muhammad in 04 and Steve Smith the next 2 seasons were either ranked 1st or 2nd in points per game.

So Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL and plays with a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who would throw every pass his way if he could. There's no question in my mind that he's the best wide receiver out there fantasy or otherwise.

I'm not sure I buy into the "he's the best wide receiver in the NFL" but that's entirely not the point of this discussion, just whether he's the best FANTASY receiver in the NFL. As to Delhomme locking onto him, I think that's a real problem for the Panthers and is an issue they most definitely want to see Delhomme improve upon. If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.And just to be clear for anyone that's not a subscriber and therefore can't access our rankings, I have Smith ranked 3rd currently...so I'm not saying he's a bust, just that I think the universal acceptance of him as the clear #1 hints at a lot of group think because the top 5 or 6 receivers really all have fair cases to be made.

LT's the best running back in the league. And he's always at worst among the top 3 running backs every season. Same for Peyton Manning and Antonio Gates at their respective positions. Talent is the key component for fantasy greatness and there isn't a wide receiver in the league who's as talented as Steve Smith. While others might have the same type of receiving skills in terms of speed it isn't even close.As for Jake Delhomme I think you're just looking at stuff that's not there. Delhomme is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He's not getting benched for David Carr. Keyshawn Johnson had 70 catches last season so it wasn't like Delhomme had extreme tunnel vision. If one of your arguments for Steve Smith not being the #1 wide receiver is Jake Delhomme considering that Jake Delhomme is one of the reasons he should well that's just weak.

The only wide receiver who could be #1 instead of him is Marvin Harrison but he's old plus the left tackle for the team is gone. Everybody else is either too old (TO, Holt) and/or just not as good (CJ, Wayne, Fitzgerald) as Steve Smith.

I don't want to misdirect this conversation in another direction, but Jake Delhomme is, respectfully, not one of the better QBs in the league, unless you mean "not in the bottom half" as "one of the better."

 

[Banger]

Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL so there's really no reason why he shouldn't be consider wide receiver in fantasy football.

Look at the last 3 seasons. The Carolina Panthers #1 wide receiver has been a fantasy beast. Muhsin Muhammad in 04 and Steve Smith the next 2 seasons were either ranked 1st or 2nd in points per game.

So Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL and plays with a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who would throw every pass his way if he could. There's no question in my mind that he's the best wide receiver out there fantasy or otherwise.

I'm not sure I buy into the "he's the best wide receiver in the NFL" but that's entirely not the point of this discussion, just whether he's the best FANTASY receiver in the NFL. As to Delhomme locking onto him, I think that's a real problem for the Panthers and is an issue they most definitely want to see Delhomme improve upon. If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.And just to be clear for anyone that's not a subscriber and therefore can't access our rankings, I have Smith ranked 3rd currently...so I'm not saying he's a bust, just that I think the universal acceptance of him as the clear #1 hints at a lot of group think because the top 5 or 6 receivers really all have fair cases to be made.

LT's the best running back in the league. And he's always at worst among the top 3 running backs every season. Same for Peyton Manning and Antonio Gates at their respective positions. Talent is the key component for fantasy greatness and there isn't a wide receiver in the league who's as talented as Steve Smith. While others might have the same type of receiving skills in terms of speed it isn't even close.As for Jake Delhomme I think you're just looking at stuff that's not there. Delhomme is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He's not getting benched for David Carr. Keyshawn Johnson had 70 catches last season so it wasn't like Delhomme had extreme tunnel vision. If one of your arguments for Steve Smith not being the #1 wide receiver is Jake Delhomme considering that Jake Delhomme is one of the reasons he should well that's just weak.

The only wide receiver who could be #1 instead of him is Marvin Harrison but he's old plus the left tackle for the team is gone. Everybody else is either too old (TO, Holt) and/or just not as good (CJ, Wayne, Fitzgerald) as Steve Smith.

I don't want to misdirect this conversation in another direction, but Jake Delhomme is, respectfully, not one of the better QBs in the league, unless you mean "not in the bottom half" as "one of the better."

He's so good he might lose his job to Carr this season if he doesn't improve...

 

[Andy Dufresne]

remove Holt's anomoly season of 117-1696-12 and his average over the last 3 years is 96-1297-9.6 tds'. Looks pretty close to me...

Torry Holt's pretty good too.

 

[buck naked]

Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL so there's really no reason why he shouldn't be consider the best wide receiver in fantasy football.Look at the last 3 seasons. The Carolina Panthers #1 wide receiver has been a fantasy beast. Muhsin Muhammad in 04 and Steve Smith the next 2 seasons were either ranked 1st or 2nd in points per game.So Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL and plays with a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who would throw every pass his way if he could. There's no question in my mind that he's the best wide receiver out there fantasy or otherwise.

The one factor that needs consideration that could change the Carolina consistency factor, however, is that a new Offensive Coordinator is coming in this year. We don't know what that means for Smith, better or worse.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL so there's really no reason why he shouldn't be consider wide receiver in fantasy football.

Look at the last 3 seasons. The Carolina Panthers #1 wide receiver has been a fantasy beast. Muhsin Muhammad in 04 and Steve Smith the next 2 seasons were either ranked 1st or 2nd in points per game.

So Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL and plays with a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who would throw every pass his way if he could. There's no question in my mind that he's the best wide receiver out there fantasy or otherwise.

I'm not sure I buy into the "he's the best wide receiver in the NFL" but that's entirely not the point of this discussion, just whether he's the best FANTASY receiver in the NFL. As to Delhomme locking onto him, I think that's a real problem for the Panthers and is an issue they most definitely want to see Delhomme improve upon. If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.And just to be clear for anyone that's not a subscriber and therefore can't access our rankings, I have Smith ranked 3rd currently...so I'm not saying he's a bust, just that I think the universal acceptance of him as the clear #1 hints at a lot of group think because the top 5 or 6 receivers really all have fair cases to be made.

LT's the best running back in the league. And he's always at worst among the top 3 running backs every season. Same for Peyton Manning and Antonio Gates at their respective positions. Talent is the key component for fantasy greatness and there isn't a wide receiver in the league who's as talented as Steve Smith. While others might have the same type of receiving skills in terms of speed it isn't even close.As for Jake Delhomme I think you're just looking at stuff that's not there. Delhomme is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He's not getting benched for David Carr. Keyshawn Johnson had 70 catches last season so it wasn't like Delhomme had extreme tunnel vision. If one of your arguments for Steve Smith not being the #1 wide receiver is Jake Delhomme considering that Jake Delhomme is one of the reasons he should well that's just weak.

The only wide receiver who could be #1 instead of him is Marvin Harrison but he's old plus the left tackle for the team is gone. Everybody else is either too old (TO, Holt) and/or just not as good (CJ, Wayne, Fitzgerald) as Steve Smith.

I don't want to misdirect this conversation in another direction, but Jake Delhomme is, respectfully, not one of the better QBs in the league, unless you mean "not in the bottom half" as "one of the better."

I think this is the one time this year I have to agree with Wood about something.

 

[ceo3west]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.1 Steve Smith 413.50 2 Marvin Harrison 395.20 3 Chad Johnson 381.80 4 Torry Holt 366.10 5 Joey Galloway 337.70

No one commented on this yet . . .

No one has commented on this yet either:

so his avg the last 52 games is 98/1408/11 and his "anomaly" of a season is 103/1563/12even if you remove that year his averages are: 96/1340/10

I like guys that can stay on the field, especially if I'm taking them in the first or second round. Give me an aging Harrion over Smith any day of the week and twice on Tuesday.

 

[David Yudkin]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.1 Steve Smith 413.50 2 Marvin Harrison 395.20 3 Chad Johnson 381.80 4 Torry Holt 366.10 5 Joey Galloway 337.70

So you have Joey Galloway in your top 10?

Obviously I don't have Galloway in the top 10, but my question is how much higher on the food chain do you want Smith to rank than #1? He couldn't rank any higher over the past two seasons. Unless your amplifers go to 11 like Spinal Tap's do, Smith maxed out in terms of his fanasy ranking the past two years.Are there other players to consider for the top spot? Of course. But one of your arguments was that Smith missed time. So did Owens, Fitzgerald, and some other receivers.I personally can see a case for Owens or Harrison (ignoring the associated risk that comes with T.O.). Ocho Cinco and Holt could be mentioned but are not really in the race as far as I'm concerned.This reminds me of the argument why people felt the Patriots were not that great. "Well, they only won their Super Bowls by a field goal so how good were they?"Yes, Smith was not as good in 03 and 04 . . . but that's not the point. He was GREAT the past two seasons. If we use 2003 and 2004 as a basis for greatness, I guess Randy Moss is in the running for the Top WR this year.

 

[Keg]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.

1 Steve Smith 413.50

2 Marvin Harrison 395.20

3 Chad Johnson 381.80

4 Torry Holt 366.10

5 Joey Galloway 337.70

No one commented on this yet . . .

No one has commented on this yet either:

so his avg the last 52 games is 98/1408/11 and his "anomaly" of a season is 103/1563/12

even if you remove that year his averages are: 96/1340/10

remove Holt's anomoly season of 117-1696-12 and his average over the last 3 years is 96-1297-9.6 tds'. Looks pretty close to me...

close but i am sure that you would agree that holt is not at the top of his PRIME(probably slightly on the way down)...while Smitty is truly in his PRIME so if its close and Smitty still has better numbers by a hair then well just give me Smitty

 

[Routilla]

Doug Drinen brings up a good point..."BECAUSE SOMEONE HAS TO BE #1"

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/08/09/wh...eone-has-to-be/

I said essentially the same thing in post #5, FWIW.

 

[Jason Wood]

Smith was the #2 WR in PPG in both 0 PPR and 1 PPR leagues in 05 and 06. In 0 PPR scoring, he's scored the most combined fantasy points over both seasons.1 Steve Smith 413.50 2 Marvin Harrison 395.20 3 Chad Johnson 381.80 4 Torry Holt 366.10 5 Joey Galloway 337.70

So you have Joey Galloway in your top 10?

Obviously I don't have Galloway in the top 10, but my question is how much higher on the food chain do you want Smith to rank than #1? He couldn't rank any higher over the past two seasons. Unless your amplifers go to 11 like Spinal Tap's do, Smith maxed out in terms of his fanasy ranking the past two years.Are there other players to consider for the top spot? Of course. But one of your arguments was that Smith missed time. So did Owens, Fitzgerald, and some other receivers.I personally can see a case for Owens or Harrison (ignoring the associated risk that comes with T.O.). Ocho Cinco and Holt could be mentioned but are not really in the race as far as I'm concerned.This reminds me of the argument why people felt the Patriots were not that great. "Well, they only won their Super Bowls by a field goal so how good were they?"Yes, Smith was not as good in 03 and 04 . . . but that's not the point. He was GREAT the past two seasons. If we use 2003 and 2004 as a basis for greatness, I guess Randy Moss is in the running for the Top WR this year.

It's a delicate balance between looking at a player's entire body of work and some random selection, like say, the last two seasons. Fantasy PPG Ranking for 20061) Harrison2) Smith3) TO4) DJax5) HoushFantasy PPG Ranking for last two years1) Smith2) TO3) Harrison4) Holt5) Ocho CincoFantasy PPG Ranking for last three years1) TO2) Smith3) Harrison4) Holt5) Ocho CincoAgain, I understand the case for Smith as #1. What I don't understand is why it's so universally viewed that way. There is far less perceived or projected difference between the top fantasy receivers than there are for the other positions, yet Smith seems as much a lock as the #1 consensus as do Manning, Gates and LT.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL so there's really no reason why he shouldn't be consider wide receiver in fantasy football.

Look at the last 3 seasons. The Carolina Panthers #1 wide receiver has been a fantasy beast. Muhsin Muhammad in 04 and Steve Smith the next 2 seasons were either ranked 1st or 2nd in points per game.

So Steve Smith is the best wide receiver in the NFL and plays with a quarterback in Jake Delhomme who would throw every pass his way if he could. There's no question in my mind that he's the best wide receiver out there fantasy or otherwise.

I'm not sure I buy into the "he's the best wide receiver in the NFL" but that's entirely not the point of this discussion, just whether he's the best FANTASY receiver in the NFL. As to Delhomme locking onto him, I think that's a real problem for the Panthers and is an issue they most definitely want to see Delhomme improve upon. If Delhomme isn't more productive, particularly when teams blanket Smith, we could see (GASP!) David Carr under center.And just to be clear for anyone that's not a subscriber and therefore can't access our rankings, I have Smith ranked 3rd currently...so I'm not saying he's a bust, just that I think the universal acceptance of him as the clear #1 hints at a lot of group think because the top 5 or 6 receivers really all have fair cases to be made.

LT's the best running back in the league. And he's always at worst among the top 3 running backs every season. Same for Peyton Manning and Antonio Gates at their respective positions. Talent is the key component for fantasy greatness and there isn't a wide receiver in the league who's as talented as Steve Smith. While others might have the same type of receiving skills in terms of speed it isn't even close.As for Jake Delhomme I think you're just looking at stuff that's not there. Delhomme is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He's not getting benched for David Carr. Keyshawn Johnson had 70 catches last season so it wasn't like Delhomme had extreme tunnel vision. If one of your arguments for Steve Smith not being the #1 wide receiver is Jake Delhomme considering that Jake Delhomme is one of the reasons he should well that's just weak.

The only wide receiver who could be #1 instead of him is Marvin Harrison but he's old plus the left tackle for the team is gone. Everybody else is either too old (TO, Holt) and/or just not as good (CJ, Wayne, Fitzgerald) as Steve Smith.

I don't want to misdirect this conversation in another direction, but Jake Delhomme is, respectfully, not one of the better QBs in the league, unless you mean "not in the bottom half" as "one of the better."

Have you looked at the numbers? Jake Delhomme's qb rating the past 3 seasons have been 87.3, 88.1, and 82.6. In the 2004 and 2005 seasons he had 30 touchdowns and 25 touchdowns respectively. He didn't have his best season in 2006 with 17 touchdowns to 11 interceptions but remember he had a badly sprained hand that limited him when he played and caused him to miss 3 games. You can deny it all you want but the numbers prove him to be at least a solid quarterback. Is he Peyton Manning? Of course not. Is he in the bottom half of the league in quarterbacks? No way. Jake Delhomme is a positive for Steve Smith as well as the Carolina Panthers.

If part of your reasoning for having Steve Smith not be the top wide receiver in fantasy football is Jake Delhomme's play I think you're making a big mistake even though the past 3 seasons should be evidence enough that Delhomme is good for fantasy wide receivers.