Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams

Player Page Link: Stevan Jackson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[butcher boy]

Interesting guy to project. Last year saw his YPC jump back closer to his career average, but his carries dropped sharply to 260. He's also getting to that age where you start to see declining numbers. He has nobody behind him that poses much of a threat to steal carries like Caddy last year, however, which keeps his value fairly elevated.

I'll project 265 carries, 1050 yards, 6 TDs. 40 receptions, 300 yards, 1 TD

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Just another ho-hum top 10 season as his floor in PPR.

He seems to have a higher ceiling this year with the addition of Fisher and his history of run offenses. Unless Pead shows a lot of promise right away, he will not steal too many carries from Jackson this year.

Jackson will be slightly underrated yet again due to his age and people rather avoid him than test out if this is the year he has an impending massive decline.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I'm hoping I can wait on a RB and load up on WR and steal Sjax this season. Fisher there and a healthy start to the season makes me high on him. Top 10 back IMO.

 

[Therapist16]

There o line should be healthy as well as qb and wrs at this point he is looking like mjd last season a 2nd rd steal could possibly have 1 more top 5 rb season left in him. i personaly would be drafting him over cj1k but you dont have to! Steal

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

wont touch. Him or Gore or turner.

the wheels are about to come off. Dont be that guy.

 

[DerekR]

wont touch. Him or Gore or turner.the wheels are about to come off. Dont be that guy.

I would love to hear your reasoning on this.. Yes I agree they aren't as appealing as a couple years ago but you act like they are all done for. But I did avoid them in my start up unless I got s-jax or turner at a good value

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

wont touch. Him or Gore or turner.the wheels are about to come off. Dont be that guy.

I would love to hear your reasoning on this.. Yes I agree they aren't as appealing as a couple years ago but you act like they are all done for. But I did avoid them in my start up unless I got s-jax or turner at a good value

29 year old + RBs that have a ton of mileage on them i tend to avoid, dyno start ups and re-drafts. They would have to be extreme value, even then you have to ask, why are they still here? Could one of the RBs I mention still have a decent season and be a servicable player? sure. But injuries and younger and "more tread" on the tires rbs sit behind all these guys. One day all 3 of them will become Shaun Alexander, it will be sudden and you will be stuck with them

 

[Skeletore Eh]

wont touch. Him or Gore or turner.the wheels are about to come off. Dont be that guy.

I would love to hear your reasoning on this.. Yes I agree they aren't as appealing as a couple years ago but you act like they are all done for. But I did avoid them in my start up unless I got s-jax or turner at a good value

29 year old + RBs that have a ton of mileage on them i tend to avoid, dyno start ups and re-drafts. They would have to be extreme value, even then you have to ask, why are they still here? Could one of the RBs I mention still have a decent season and be a servicable player? sure. But injuries and younger and "more tread" on the tires rbs sit behind all these guys. One day all 3 of them will become Shaun Alexander, it will be sudden and you will be stuck with them

I think grouping sjax with gore, and to an even greater extent turner, is misguided. Yes they are all older rbs, but their performance and abilities at this point in their careers is very different, especially in ppr. Sjax is still a beast. He may not be quite as fast as he once was, but watching him this past season, he's still fast for a guy his size. Meanwhile gore looked run down and a shell of himself by the end of the season. Turners game has been deteriorating for the past two seasons (he looks so slow) and he is not involved in the passing game. As someone said above, I see another ho hum top 10 season for sjax in ppr

 

[fridayfrenzy]

wont touch. Him or Gore or turner.the wheels are about to come off. Dont be that guy.

This is precisely why Sjax is underrated.The "wheels are about to come off" is a statement said every year for RBs in their last 3-4 years and it doesn't happen that often. For every Shaun Alexander or Clinton Portis, there is a Tiki Barber and Thomas Jones argument. More often than not you see a gradual end for an RB instead of super abrupt. The abrupt ends often happen when a team drafts a competent replacement or brings in a free agent vs. a player just absolutely sucking.

 

[Bayhawks]

I think StL is going to take a step forward this year, and I think Steven Jackson will be part of the reason for the step, and will benefit from that step.

280 carries, 1204 yards, 7 TD, 48 receptions, 375 yards, 1 TD

 

[Chase Stuart]

Jackson will only be 29 next month, so I don't see age as a huge issue in redraft leagues. What's amazing is how consistent he has been over the last four years, especially as a fantasy player.

Eventually, you have to assume the Rams will be able to score points on offense. They've ranked 26th or worse every year since Jackson's breakout year in 2006. He was a monster that year, but the offense just can't sustain him anymore. The talent is there, but he has a miserable supporting cast.

 

[We Tigers]

1000+ yards rushing for 7 straight seasons--2 of which were only 12 games long for him. A rushing average above 4.1 YPC every year but one. 300+ receiving yards every year but one. Three seasons of 15, 16, and 15 games have turned Steven Jackson from "injury prone" to missing fewer games than the league average at RB. The only thing missing: touchdowns. I do expect Pead to get a decent workload, but even 80-100 carries won't make a huge dent.

The price on Jackson this year is downright great. End of the second round for the most consistent RB in the league? I'll take it. I'm not even expecting that huge a bump in his numbers this year (though I do expect a bounce-back year from Sam Bradford and the Rams in general), but I'll take it.

270 rushes, 1161 yards; 40 rec, 300 yds; 8 TDs.

 

[FF Ninja]

As someone who dealt Alexander for SJax after the 2005 season I am all too familiar with steep declines as well as Jackson's talent. But I'm not expecting a steep decline for Jackson. Given Fisher's use of Eddie George, I expect SJax to get plenty of carries even if his ypc drops from last year. And should Bradford stay healthy it is hard to imagine him performing as poorly as last year, so there is hope for this offense.

I know age/mileage will be the main sticking point for many, which is why he is dropping to 27th overall (RB14) in redrafts, but health is always an issue with this guy. Even when he plays 15-16 games, it seems like he's playing injured for half of them. For instance, just looking at his games 1-8/9-16 splits, here are his ypc numbers for the last few years:

2011: 5.1/3.9

2010: 3.9/3.6

2009: 4.8/4.0

As one of his biggest fans, I just don't know that I'll be able to pull the trigger this year. Even with all the injuries and missed time, he has finished between RB10 and RB14 each of the last 5 years so a RB14 price tag in a Jeff Fisher offense sounds quite reasonable, but if he is hobbling through your FF playoffs, that doesn't do you much good. But if he can stay healthy and the offense is finally decent (they've been bottom feeders the entire duration of those RB10-RB14 finishes) then there's no reason he can't have a top 10 season. The only thing missing has been touchdowns. In those 5 years, he has put up 83.6 rushing yards per game and 24 receiving yards per game. Regular season equivalents of 1338 and 384. Really, really good numbers, but GREAT number if you consider his team (I couldn't resist looking it up).

StL offensive rank

2011: 32nd

2010: 26th

2009: 32nd

2008: 31st

2007: 28th

The year he finished RB3, they ranked 10th. If this guy was on a real offense he would be talked about in the same light as LT. But that doesn't help us in 2012. I'm predicting Fisher uses him early and often but he still doesn't see the endzone a lot. Really not sure how to predict his receptions. Is Pead going to see time on third down to keep Jackson fresh?

300 carries x 4.0 ypc = 1200 yards 7 TD, 45 rec x 7.5 ypr = 338 yds 1 TD

 

[Badgers Fan]

Fisher loves his running backs. SJax looks to be in excellent shape. I'm not betting against his talent with a coach that will give him the rock.

285 carries

4.2 ypc

1197 yards

45 rec

370 rec yards

6 total tds

top 12 ppr rb (once again)

 

[chickensoup]

I'm one of those crazy guys that took him in a dynasty startup and don't regret it one bit. Got him at the end of the fourth round, had a QB, WR, RB already and had a good choice of WR after the turn so I'll roll with him til he dies on the field. I firmly believe he has 2 years left to give

 

[We Tigers]

The actual FBG spotlight opinion was pretty dire and seemed to suggest this year was the end for him. I'm still thinking that assessment is premature by a couple of seasons.

 

[Shutout]

I saw a stat somewhere that said Gore and Turner actually caught the same amount of passes last year.

Of Gore, Turner, and SJAX, I think Turner is the best bet in vanilla scoring just because of the short TD opportunities. I think Gore played hurt a lot last year that wasn't discussed much and I expect him to be a lot better than what people are expecting. I think SJAX is always a mystery; always seems dinged up but is such a compiler that, at the end of the day, he is a good RB to have.

So in a redraft, I think any of them could be valuable to a contending team. In dynasty, of course, I'm moved on.

I think the riskiest of the three is SJAX. His use and age and little nagging injuries are well-documented and for the 1st time in a while, there is actually a theoretical replacement. So, unlike in the past where he has a bad quad for a month and he just gets back out there in any capacity he can as soon as possible, I think he is now subject to being "rested" and "playing it smart" if he has little things going on. I also think if the team really does become markedly better this year, then that translates into not NEEDING to play him as much. Again, he's a compiler. he gets a lot of his FF production in garbarge time and with dump offs late when everyone is protecting the big play. A better Rams team may actually work against SJAX the FF player.

 

[Abrantes]

I actually think Jackson is a fairly safe pick. Unlike Turner and Gore, I didn't see any signs of him breaking down last season. He was running as hard as ever, they say he looks great in camp, ten pounds lighter and at 5.1% BF. Can't think of a single player that takes care of his body as well as him, so age doesn't concern me this year. As far as backups go, Pead also worries me less than Quizz or Hunter/Jacobs/James/Dixon.

He was underutilized last year in McDaniels' offense (including a ridiculous sequence where they went 5 plays at the goal line before giving Jackson a carry - and he promptly got the TD), but that's likely to change with Fisher in charge. They even brought in a fullback! :shockandawe: Also glad that they have a new OL coach.

As always, his upside is limited by the success of the Rams offense, but if they can manage to field an offense that isn't historically ugly, Jackson will thrive. If not, his usual production is still damn good.

292 carries, 1256 yards (4.3 ypc), 7 TDs; 47 receptions, 380 yards, 2 TD

 

[Ray_T]

wont touch. Him or Gore or turner.the wheels are about to come off. Dont be that guy.

the other guys have a point. Who is gonna steal his carries if he sucks?I figure even a sub par season gets him 1000 yards. The only concern I have at this point is injury.

 

[-jb-]

I seem to be locking in on Bradshaw at this point in the draft (early 3rd). Given the cluster of players, I rank them like this:

Bradshaw

Jackson

Turner

Gore

Although I think Jackson/Turner is a coin flip, I really like Julio and Ryan this year. Jackson would get the nod on my team for diversity's sake.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

wont touch. Him or Gore or turner.

the wheels are about to come off. Dont be that guy.

If you said this last year you would have missed out on 3 of the top 12 RBs.Point being the wheels will come off every player at some point, but it's just as easy to jump off too soon (by more than one year in fact) as too late.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Anyone-Ram homers or otherwise-have thoughts on the new offense? I know Fisher has a history of pounding the rock and running a single RB into the ground (Eddie George, Chris Johnson).

The FBG spotlight had an interesting take on the Jackson-may-be-done front, looking at tall RBs and how they have tended to fall off a cliff earlier than others.

I'm a longtime fan of SJax and will be buying this year. The offense should improve at least a little, Fisher's tendency to run and Jackson's amazing physical fitness are reasons why. My leagues give less yardage points than normal though, so his lack of TDs hurts more.

 

[Shutout]

wont touch. Him or Gore or turner.

the wheels are about to come off. Dont be that guy.

If you said this last year you would have missed out on 3 of the top 12 RBs.Point being the wheels will come off every player at some point, but it's just as easy to jump off too soon (by more than one year in fact) as too late.

True, and in redraft that is surviveable but in dynasty, I would always rather get out one year too early than one year too late.

 

[unckeyherb]

I seem to be locking in on Bradshaw at this point in the draft (early 3rd). Given the cluster of players, I rank them like this:BradshawJacksonTurnerGoreAlthough I think Jackson/Turner is a coin flip, I really like Julio and Ryan this year. Jackson would get the nod on my team for diversity's sake.

To each his own, but I'd take Jackson over Bradshaw every day and twice on Sunday.

 

[Sabertooth]

290 carries 1200 yards

55 receptions

12 tds

 

[Papa Georgio]

Going back to the age issue, one thing that is nice is that a lot of owners will take what they can get with older players. Every year there is an aging vet that can be had for a song. I have for years used the strategy to round out my roster with guys like SJax. I got him for a rookie 2nd rounder last year. The chances of him giving me 3 good years are much better than me striking gold in the draft that late.

He just isn't a sexy pick but you know what you have with him. Very under-rated.

 

[OnTheReg]

Anyone have any different opinions on Jackson as we enter the third preseason game? More and more I really like him this year in Fisher's offense.

 

[meyerj31]

Anyone have any different opinions on Jackson as we enter the third preseason game? More and more I really like him this year in Fisher's offense.

I'm buying as early as late 2nd round in re-draft. I chase touches with RBs and SJax is going to get a lot of them.

 

[TheWick]

Anyone have any different opinions on Jackson as we enter the third preseason game? More and more I really like him this year in Fisher's offense.

He looks great to me. Pead has certainly done nothing to steal touches. Great RB2 pick who could end up top 10.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I was down on Jackson last year. He simply did not look good in the previous season. Well, it must have been temporary, because Jackson looked good last year and looks good so far this preseason.

I just watched the Rams-Chiefs game, Jackson looked very good. He is not the player he once was (deep insight there), but he is fast to the line, good lateral movement, great power. On top of that, Bradford looks very accurate and is going to move the chains for sure.

Barring another injury debacle(not just to Jackson, but to the OL, WRs, and Bradford), Jackson is going to have a very nice season.

I would definitely take Foster, McCoy, Rice, McFadden, and C.Johnson before Jackson, but he is in play after that. He is going to get a lot of yards, just how many depends on how much he is used in the passing game... his upside depends more on how many TDs he gets. A healthy Rams offense is going to be better than people think. I'm not talking top 5, the receivers aren't dependable yet, but I am comfortable putting the over/under offensive rank at #16.

 

[We Tigers]

I've been rethinking my low TD numbers. Fisher doesn't seem to be afraid of using Jackson often, and Jackson looks great. A lot of those "pass/pass/pass/field goal" situations of the past few years could become "run, run--TD." Double digit scores might be in play for the first time in a while.

 

[OnTheReg]

Some good points guys, thanks for responding. I am glad to see you agreeing with me and getting on board with Jackson. To me, his positives outweigh his negatives big time. What's his negative, that he is 29? Eddie George had over 300 carries when he was 29 on a Fisher coached team.

Give me Jackson all day over some backs with more questions than answers.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm on board with Jackson. I think the offense/Bradford looking better this preseason has given me a bit more confidence too.

Decent value IMHO.

 

[doeseatplace]

I'm on board with Jackson. I think the offense/Bradford looking better this preseason has given me a bit more confidence too.Decent value IMHO.

Agreed. we ran a mock in our 16 team, 2ppr league last night and he fell to me at 3.13. Besides his rookie year, hes been a RB1 every year, so at that price, its a steal

 

[unckeyherb]

I pick 1.12/2.01 in my 2 man keeper and I'm expecting him to be there at the turn. If I can go with consistency in Sjax then high risk high reward in one of Charles/AD I'll be happier than a pig in ####.

 

[duaneok66]

I am biased, but i think that Jackson finishes top 5 this year - Bradford and the pass game seem to be a little better this year, and STL will have more scoring opportunities.

 

[Shutout]

I am biased, but i think that Jackson finishes top 5 this year - Bradford and the pass game seem to be a little better this year, and STL will have more scoring opportunities.

I'm usually not a big SJAX supporter but after looking at his numbers pretty closely today when discussing another topic, he jumped out at me as being very consistent week in and week out. I don't know if he can generate a total top 5 number but I would be willing to bet he can play like a top 5 back each week (if that makes sense).

 

[OnTheReg]

I am biased, but i think that Jackson finishes top 5 this year - Bradford and the pass game seem to be a little better this year, and STL will have more scoring opportunities.

I'm usually not a big SJAX supporter but after looking at his numbers pretty closely today when discussing another topic, he jumped out at me as being very consistent week in and week out. I don't know if he can generate a total top 5 number but I would be willing to bet he can play like a top 5 back each week (if that makes sense).

I actually know what you mean...he's probably not going to be the top back any week, and go off for 175 yds and 2 or 3 TDs. But week in, and week out, he's going to get 20+ carries, and all the goal line carries. 20-105 with a TD is definitely within reach most weeks. Will he have 100 yds every game? Of course not, he does play for the Rams, and there will be a few clunkers. But overall, he will give you steady production.

 

[T.Rex]

LOVE HIM THIS YEAR

 

[xenon]

I like SJax and always have and with the #9 pick, I am seriously contemplating snagging him @ 2.04 (where he has generally been available)...problem is, when mocking, I have found at various time the following available as well and I waiver as an argument could be made for each outside of the concerns I have:

J Charles (Hillis as a TD vulture)

ADP (coming off injury)

Demarco Murray (O line issues, Witten, Dez, Austin not 100%)

MJD (hold out and if back, will he suffer like CJ2k last year. If not holding out, definitely a round 1 RB)

Lynch (facing suspension and I've never been a believer)

FJax (was great last year until injured + Spiller)

So with SJax NOT on a RB by committee, in what seems to be an improved offense (if only slightly), Fisher as new head coach who by all accounts I've read will give him the rock make SJAX the obvious choice here?

 

[12punch]

I don't know about obvious, but I think I like him more than all those guys except fjax.

fjax was a monster last year.

I like lynch, but the rest of those guys I'd probably avoid at 2.04 anyway, so it's not much competition for me.

 

[need2know]

dont know how but i got him in the fourth round of a 12 team redraft this year as my RB2. WOW .5 ppr too..$$$$$

 

[Kenny Powers]

Im high on him this year, in the mid-3rd or later. You people talking about taking him in the early to mid-2nd is kind of crazy. Now maybe he's gone by your 3rd pick, but Id say that's 50/50 at worst considering the glut of RBs and WRs in that range. SJax is a value guy just for that reason, he always seems to slide in drafts. No need to use a 2nd rounder on him. If anything, go with an upside RB pick like DMC, MJD, or Murray with your 1st or 2nd pick then go after SJax in the 3rd to minimize the risk with your first RB.

 

[wilked]

Agree, like him in late 3rd / early 4th round, but wouldn't touch him before that

 

[ponchsox]

I like SJAX this year if he can increase his TD totals. Will the Rams be able to give him more scoring chances?

 

[xenon]

Im high on him this year, in the mid-3rd or later. You people talking about taking him in the early to mid-2nd is kind of crazy. Now maybe he's gone by your 3rd pick, but Id say that's 50/50 at worst considering the glut of RBs and WRs in that range. SJax is a value guy just for that reason, he always seems to slide in drafts. No need to use a 2nd rounder on him. If anything, go with an upside RB pick like DMC, MJD, or Murray with your 1st or 2nd pick then go after SJax in the 3rd to minimize the risk with your first RB.

I don't know about anybody else, but I've done quite a bit of mocking (from the 9 spot in a 12 team) and while I am contemplate Sjax for my second round pick in my real draft, I don't think I've seen him last past the second round/early 3rd at the latest. If anything and in my opinion, he presents great value if he makes it to the 3rd round AS a #2 RB on your squad or #1 RB if you grabbed Megatron or a QB with your first pick..You say "considering the glut of RB's"...and there's not this year. You comment on the likes of DMC and Murray both of whom ARE being drafted before Sjax and if you draft either of those guys, if you don't take Sjax with your second overall pick, you are chances of being able to do so in the third or later as you suggest are basically ZERO. He is an undisputed #1 RB on a team that is NOT rbbc. New coach, new scheme + he catches the ball.

 

[T.Rex]

he's easily worth a md 2nd imo. Last year I dent feel close to this.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Im high on him this year, in the mid-3rd or later. You people talking about taking him in the early to mid-2nd is kind of crazy. Now maybe he's gone by your 3rd pick, but Id say that's 50/50 at worst considering the glut of RBs and WRs in that range. SJax is a value guy just for that reason, he always seems to slide in drafts. No need to use a 2nd rounder on him. If anything, go with an upside RB pick like DMC, MJD, or Murray with your 1st or 2nd pick then go after SJax in the 3rd to minimize the risk with your first RB.

I don't know about anybody else, but I've done quite a bit of mocking (from the 9 spot in a 12 team) and while I am contemplate Sjax for my second round pick in my real draft, I don't think I've seen him last past the second round/early 3rd at the latest. If anything and in my opinion, he presents great value if he makes it to the 3rd round AS a #2 RB on your squad or #1 RB if you grabbed Megatron or a QB with your first pick..

You say "considering the glut of RB's"...and there's not this year. You comment on the likes of DMC and Murray both of whom ARE being drafted before Sjax and if you draft either of those guys, if you don't take Sjax with your second overall pick, you are chances of being able to do so in the third or later as you suggest are basically ZERO.

He is an undisputed #1 RB on a team that is NOT rbbc. New coach, new scheme + he catches the ball.

So what makes SJax that much better than guys like Gore and Turner whose stock has also significantly dropped this offseason?! They are all essentially the same age, I would guess that SJax may even have the most carries of the 3 of them, and yet Gore and Turner both had more rushing yards and TDs last year (while total yards were very close with all). Gore and Turner are both in undoubtedly better offenses, yet their current ADP is about a round lower than SJax based on ADP the last few days.Like I said, I like SJax this year, just trying to put things into perspective. Id rather have Gore or Turner in the 4th than SJax in the 2nd.

 

[ponchsox]

Im high on him this year, in the mid-3rd or later. You people talking about taking him in the early to mid-2nd is kind of crazy. Now maybe he's gone by your 3rd pick, but Id say that's 50/50 at worst considering the glut of RBs and WRs in that range. SJax is a value guy just for that reason, he always seems to slide in drafts. No need to use a 2nd rounder on him. If anything, go with an upside RB pick like DMC, MJD, or Murray with your 1st or 2nd pick then go after SJax in the 3rd to minimize the risk with your first RB.

I don't know about anybody else, but I've done quite a bit of mocking (from the 9 spot in a 12 team) and while I am contemplate Sjax for my second round pick in my real draft, I don't think I've seen him last past the second round/early 3rd at the latest. If anything and in my opinion, he presents great value if he makes it to the 3rd round AS a #2 RB on your squad or #1 RB if you grabbed Megatron or a QB with your first pick..

You say "considering the glut of RB's"...and there's not this year. You comment on the likes of DMC and Murray both of whom ARE being drafted before Sjax and if you draft either of those guys, if you don't take Sjax with your second overall pick, you are chances of being able to do so in the third or later as you suggest are basically ZERO.

He is an undisputed #1 RB on a team that is NOT rbbc. New coach, new scheme + he catches the ball.

Gore and Turner have both shown they are declining on the field. Has SJax shown you anything but him being his normal self? I can't see Pead taking away carries this year unlike Turner who has Rodgers as a threat and Gore has two other backs behind him.So what makes SJax that much better than guys like Gore and Turner whose stock has also significantly dropped this offseason?! They are all essentially the same age, I would guess that SJax may even have the most carries of the 3 of them, and yet Gore and Turner both had more rushing yards and TDs last year (while total yards were very close with all). Gore and Turner are both in undoubtedly better offenses, yet their current ADP is about a round lower than SJax based on ADP the last few days.

Like I said, I like SJax this year, just trying to put things into perspective. Id rather have Gore or Turner in the 4th than SJax in the 2nd.