Strategic Question about Keepers (1 Viewer)

[Hammatime]

I play in a league where we keep four keepers. Every 4 years we toss 'em all back and redraft to keep it from getting stale. It's a 12 team performance scoring league, TE mandatory, 8 total starters (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DT) and 2 flex players (can be RB, WR or TE).

My question is what do you do in a year where you only have 2 bona-fide keepers. For the other two keepers, is it better to keep "solid WR2 or RB3" type players or take a flyer on a player with more upside potential? Is it best to just rank according to VBD, or is some risk taking warranted in this type of scenario? This is not intended to be a "rate my keepers" question.

I can see good reasons for going in both directions. One is safe, providing better depth. The other has upside potential but more risk. Assume I have a top 3 RB and top 8 WR as my two keepers. Remaining players to choose from all have question marks:

1. Returning RB who may never be the same (ie: A. Green)

2. Questionable starting RB (ie: T Jones, T Henry, T Bell, etc)

3. Unproven first time starter for a new team (ie: C Taylor, K Barlow)

4. Top 3 TE (ie: Heap, Shockey, Gonzo)

I am trying to keep this general so all the "go to asst coach" haters don't jump up and down. If you want specifics I'll provide them. I'd like to hear what people think is the better way to manage a difficult situation like this and still field a winning team. (And yes, I know my situation sucks!)

Hammtime

 

[videoguy505]

I've been in similar situations.

First, figure out who other teams will keep. I had to pick 3 and wasn't sure of the third--Javon Walker or Marc Bulger, had 2RBs--until I guessed the other teams' keepers. Using logic, knowledge of the owners, and a few well-timed "interested in a trade" emails I deduced as many as 16 WRs were being kept but only 5 QBs. That and the depth of the QB tier around Bulger meant keeping Walker was more profitable--there were few better WRs in the pool and more equivalent QBs.

Second, project the first round or two. With 2 years knowledge of the owners, you can reasonably guesstimate who will pick who among the free agents. Figure out who will be available with your first pick, and take an educated guess for your second, once the draft starts.

With 4 keepers, you should be keeping anyone in the top 36 overall, regardless of position. And those borderline guys in the 37-48 range are strong candidates as well.

Personally, based on your team, if you have a top 3RB you need that second RB, so after keeping your top WR I'd keep 2 of the guys in category #2 (T Jones and T Bell) and see which one shakes out--possibly both could work out and you could play matchups or hot hand every week in your flex spot(s).

 

[Hammatime]

Thanks Video-Guy, for the excellent input. From looking around the league, I would say virtually everone will keep 2 RB's, and there will be 3 TE'S kept (Gates, Heap and Shockey). Also Brady, Manning (both), Brady, Hasselbeck, McNabb and Culpepper.

I agree with your suggested approach and am leaning in the direction of 2 RB's and pick up a TE much later.

Related question: Of these three guys, how do you rate their potential this year? T Jones, A Gree, and C Taylor?

 

[shutupayaface]

where can i find cheat sheets for keeper leauges on the site?

is there a customizable vbd cheat sheet for keepers?

 

[The Jerk]

My strategy would depend on how many years are still remaining in the current league cycle. If 2005 was the first year of a 4-year cycle, then after the two clear cut keepers I would consider keeping a rookie or 2nd year player on my roster who might start in 2007 even if the numbers for this year pale compared to other keepers. If this is the final year of a 4-year cycle, then I'd go with the best players I could put in my lineup. The key to this of course is to begin in the middle of the previous season and find at least one, maybe two roster spaces dedicated to rising players with long-range potential. Once you're eliminated from the playoffs, then that space might double.

Somewhere between videoguy's advice on the top 36 players and my suggestion on long-range potential should be a good balance point between being competitive in 2006 and also projecting to the last year(s) of a league cycle.

 

[The Jerk]

Actually, in the early years of the league cycle, planning for keepers begins at the draft, not at the middle of the season. Just to clarify.