Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Strategy for Kickers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter 2323
- Start date
analog_hiss
Footballguy
Bingo. Fill the roster, trhen part way through the year, pick up the hot one.
The last three seasons, this has worked for me.
The last three seasons, this has worked for me.
The Psychologist
Footballguy
Any Monday night free agent kicker that is available!!
so let me get this - the first part of the season you get zero points out of that position. and it works. so why would you pick one up at all?
Squinting Cyclops
Footballguy
I think they pick one up after the draft but just before week 1, then look to see who is "hot" thi year and try to land them in the forst few weeks.
stevegamer
Footballguy
Dynasty strategy:
Lots of teams drop kickers on byes because they don't feel they are worth using a psot on. If a team drops a kicker who meets the following criteria, pounce quickly, even if you need to do so during a bye week:
1. Is on a top-10 offense.
2. Is young, but has a solid grasp on the job.
3. Ideally, has shown himself in a prior year, to be starter-caliber.
Someone dropped Shayne Graham in one of my leagues for a bye filler at one point a few years back - I snagged him, and he was productive. I then later managed to snag Nate Kaeding, and Graham was dealt as part of another positional upgrade.
Lots of teams drop kickers on byes because they don't feel they are worth using a psot on. If a team drops a kicker who meets the following criteria, pounce quickly, even if you need to do so during a bye week:
1. Is on a top-10 offense.
2. Is young, but has a solid grasp on the job.
3. Ideally, has shown himself in a prior year, to be starter-caliber.
Someone dropped Shayne Graham in one of my leagues for a bye filler at one point a few years back - I snagged him, and he was productive. I then later managed to snag Nate Kaeding, and Graham was dealt as part of another positional upgrade.
do you start the season without a kicker? and wait to see who is hot or do you pick one up before the first game?
Does that really work? I remember looking up Gould's stats from last year and it seems like right around the point everyone would have been jumping on him, his scoring came down to about average. He scored 66 points in his first 5 games, 77 in his next 11. Ditto with Rackers. He scored 50 points in his first 4 games, 90 in his next 12. That's averages of 7 and 7.5, good but not great numbers. Just taking the top 32 kickers in total points from last year and figuring their per game average, I get 7 as good for 14th and 7.5 for 7th. But most every kicker anyone would use is between about 6.7 and 7.5. By the time you would know to jump on Gould or Rackers, they would be coming back to the pack.I guess it works in the sense that you ended up with a K you could play, but it seems like when I see people bring up these examples, they imply - not saying you are - that they got a top kicker that way.
-OZ-
Footballguy
In my dynasty leagues, I've learned not to worry about PK. Someone always comes out of nowhere, even more so in a redraft.
As much as I happen to like Nugent, I'm gaining nothing by keeping him on my roster for 3 years while rarely starting him, so I'm going with the WW pickup theory from now on.
But, if I'm actually thinking of drafting one, it's bad run O, good D, decent passing game. If Clemens comes around, Nugent fits this nicely - but I've been waiting awhile now.
As much as I happen to like Nugent, I'm gaining nothing by keeping him on my roster for 3 years while rarely starting him, so I'm going with the WW pickup theory from now on.
But, if I'm actually thinking of drafting one, it's bad run O, good D, decent passing game. If Clemens comes around, Nugent fits this nicely - but I've been waiting awhile now.
Last edited by a moderator:
PantherPower
Footballguy
Amen.
It's a crapshoot. My favorite NFL kicker is Jason Hanson, I think he's one of the all time greats. Throw in that he plays in a dome with another dome game at Minnesota, and that's good enough for me to usually snag him as ~ the #10-12 kicker overall.
But when I get Hanson, I usually just start him at home and if on the road, in division games. This is not a foolproof strategy, but i usually get 2+ FGA's from him, a couple from 50+ (BIG bonus for that in my league), and he's awesomely accurate indoors. Mike Martz hasn't hurt his value in turf games ether!
Oh, and he's MONEY on Thanksgiving! Plus you're watching that (usual STINKER) anyway, right? Might as well have a rooting interest.
Caveat: I would NEVER recommend that anyone choose their fantasy football lineups based on TV schedules. That would be very, very wrong. RIGHT???
But when I get Hanson, I usually just start him at home and if on the road, in division games. This is not a foolproof strategy, but i usually get 2+ FGA's from him, a couple from 50+ (BIG bonus for that in my league), and he's awesomely accurate indoors. Mike Martz hasn't hurt his value in turf games ether!
Oh, and he's MONEY on Thanksgiving! Plus you're watching that (usual STINKER) anyway, right? Might as well have a rooting interest.
Caveat: I would NEVER recommend that anyone choose their fantasy football lineups based on TV schedules. That would be very, very wrong. RIGHT???
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Seems like almost every flipping year that PK1 winds up being someone who was undrafted in my redraft league. It's been a long time since I spent anything more than my final pick on one, then play the WW game when/if someone comes out of nowhere.
Top-10 kickers are more likely to come from a top-10 offense than a top-10 defense. The best strategy is just to grab the kicker on the best offense who isn't currently snagged.
the spanker
Footballguy
Doesn't this strategy dictate you keep 2 kickers on your roster then?
mlbnfl
Footballguy
I pick one up just before the week one game.
OneEastRiver
Footballguy
I'll sometimes go with a kicker that is on the same team as one of my starting RBs. The logic here is that if your RB has a tough day, it means that his team probably didn't convert so well in the redzone, and they ended up with a few field goals. Obviously this doesn't always work, but seeing your RB get stuffed at the goal line isn't so horrible when you end the drive with 3 pts from the kicker. This past Sunday I started Rudi and S. Graham. Got crap from Rudi, but Graham made up for him big time -- this is an extreme example though.
the spanker
Footballguy
Well that strategy should work well with your QB too right?
Utter Chaos
Footballguy
I pick up one that has a late bye. Then when I need to cover his bye week there's usually a decent kicker out there that was cut during their bye week.
BusterTBronco
Footballguy
Very clever (and somewhat devious). I think I'll try that next year!So, do you play week 1 with no kicker? Or do you just use the extra time to hold/decide on which position player to drop?Also, could this "technique" also be applied to DST? Seems to me like I always end up dropping the DST I drafted and picking up a better one off waivers.
Last edited by a moderator:
joey
Footballguy
yeah, I've done the same on and off for the past few years.Don't draft a kicker, take an extra skill position guy, then rightbefore week 1, drop the "worst" upside position player and grab a kicker.Funny how with all positions, the later I wait to take a guy, themore chance I have to grab someone who unexpectedly comesout of the gate hot. The guy who drafted Vinatieri "early" will mostlikely not jump on Folk as a free agent since he drafted "one of thebest kickers in the league". This happens to me even more oftenwith skill position guys. For example, this year, a guy who draftedBulger and Rivers probably didn't give up on them fast enough tograb Anderson this year. I hate in week 3 when I'm staring at aguy on the waiver wire but just can't bear to part with any of my"sure things that will come around soon" on my roster.massive tangent. sorry
the spanker
Footballguy
I have Farve as my QB and picked up Hanson last week but tempted to pick up Crosby since he's out there just to have the K there whenever the offense stalls out.yeah, I've done the same on and off for the past few years.Don't draft a kicker, take an extra skill position guy, then rightbefore week 1, drop the "worst" upside position player and grab a kicker.Funny how with all positions, the later I wait to take a guy, themore chance I have to grab someone who unexpectedly comesout of the gate hot. The guy who drafted Vinatieri "early" will mostlikely not jump on Folk as a free agent since he drafted "one of thebest kickers in the league". This happens to me even more oftenwith skill position guys. For example, this year, a guy who draftedBulger and Rivers probably didn't give up on them fast enough tograb Anderson this year. I hate in week 3 when I'm staring at aguy on the waiver wire but just can't bear to part with any of my"sure things that will come around soon" on my roster.massive tangent. sorry
BusterTBronco
Footballguy
In one of my leagues this year, I rostered as many WR as I could and did not roster a kicker until the last possible moment. I did this for about four weeks in a row. People in my league started getting really pissed off and said I was subverting the spirit of the rules so I stopped doing it.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Fairly decent D and an utterly inept O seems to have resulted in Stover falling right off the map in terms of worth. I question whether this BAL team can turn it around to get Stover's value back to where it was at the beginning of the season.Amen.
you dont use a PK for the first part of the season (zero points from that position?) and if that works why pick one up later?
ready5
Footballguy
nflguru
Footballguy
I think this holds true for almost all of the top 10 (outside of NE this year.. lots of xpt... but points none the less..). I have the DAL kicker and CLE kicker.. both waiver wire pickups... It's funny each year you see guys draft a kicker in the 7th round..MNFlyingBoat
Footballguy
You need good D and at least a decent enough Off to get close to the GL. I was starting Stover earlier, but they stink, fortunately dropped him on his bye week and picked up Josh Brown. You want a decent enough Off but bad red zone. This is where Seattle was sitting. Its worked out OK, though Seattle kept having penalties taking them out of the RZ last week and took away 2 made FG's from Brown! Stover might be decent again with McNair out of the picture.
ninerfanatic492000
Footballguy
i swap kickers weekly. i look for a offense rated 10th-20th playing a mediocre to bad defense in a dome. i try to find a good to average offense that can move the ball but has trouble punching it in against a average defense that will allow them to move the ball most of the time but can stop them occasionally/half the time and its in a place where weather won't dramatically affect the kick/offense moving the ball. if u simply pick the best kicker(on best offense) available your likely to just get mostly XP's.
TeamDingo
Footballguy
My stratedgy is to find the K on the best offense with the latest bye. ( This year SGostowski).
Since you have a K with the last bye you can pick off someone else's good K when they cut them because their K is on a bye.
You get good scoring and never have to worry about your K being on a bye.
Since you have a K with the last bye you can pick off someone else's good K when they cut them because their K is on a bye.
You get good scoring and never have to worry about your K being on a bye.
interested in which kicker you picked up for gost....NE
mistersmith
Footballguy
I like Gostkowski. The guy consistently gives you 7-10 points every week and I'd be amazed if he lays an egg this year (that would require shutting out the Pats, which looks impossible.)Also, its nice when you're watching the games, the Pats are always in the red zone. Yeah, most of them are extra points but at least you know you're gonna get something for your troubles.
Lord Lucan
Footballguy
My strategy is:
1) Don't pick a K before the last round, because I KNOW I'm going to drop him at some point;
2) Avoid kickers from teams that are likely to be on the receiving end of blow-outs (nothing more frustrating than your kicker being on the sidelines as his team goes for it on 4th and goal from the 20);
3) Around the start of November, try and get a kicker who will be in a dome, or at least a fair-weather venue, for most of the rest of the way. For instance, in weeks 13-16, Ryan Longwell (Vikings), who is probably available in most leagues, will be kicking in a dome in three of those weeks, and in San Francisco the other one. Longwell hasn't had many opportunities this season but the only FGs he has missed have been from 57 yards (the Cromartie return), and 52 yards, plus a blocked 48-yarder. I think the Saints are the only team in a dome all four weeks from 13-16, though there are two or three other teams with three games in a dome and one in a fair-weather city.
1) Don't pick a K before the last round, because I KNOW I'm going to drop him at some point;
2) Avoid kickers from teams that are likely to be on the receiving end of blow-outs (nothing more frustrating than your kicker being on the sidelines as his team goes for it on 4th and goal from the 20);
3) Around the start of November, try and get a kicker who will be in a dome, or at least a fair-weather venue, for most of the rest of the way. For instance, in weeks 13-16, Ryan Longwell (Vikings), who is probably available in most leagues, will be kicking in a dome in three of those weeks, and in San Francisco the other one. Longwell hasn't had many opportunities this season but the only FGs he has missed have been from 57 yards (the Cromartie return), and 52 yards, plus a blocked 48-yarder. I think the Saints are the only team in a dome all four weeks from 13-16, though there are two or three other teams with three games in a dome and one in a fair-weather city.
strong
Footballguy
I do this, too. Try to get one of the kickers on one of my best players' team. With Gostkowski on bye, I grabbed Reed since I was starting Roethlisberger and Parker. It worked out just fine. But in a keeper/dynasty league, I value consistency, which usually means a kicker on a good offense. I like a kicker I can pretty much pencil in for 6-9 points a week and don't have to worry about those 2 point stinkers. Kickers on bad struggling offenses might get you the occasional 14 point game, but that'll come with a 1 point bomb. Look at Stover. He was doing really well to start the year but has put up 4 points in 3 games. Yuck. He seems to have three of those games a year along with three monster games. Kickers on bad offenses will do that and it can help you or hurt you, especially in the playoffs, but fantasy football is enough of a gamble already that I want little more security at kicker. It took me about 10 minutes to gather numbers over the last four years for some kickers/teams, calculate the averages and standard deviations, and add up the number of big games and flops -- games above 11 points or below 5 points. Ghost/NE didn't have the highest per game, but NE kickers had the lowest standard deviation over the last four seasons and the fewest numbers of monster/flop games. So I targeted Gostkowski in my contract/auction league and made him the second highest paid kicker in the league (which was above many projections heading into the year) and I've been happy with the results.
I do the same strategies as in your first 2 paragraphs there. Thought I'd second that to give the thread a bump and give someone a chance to explain how it's wrong - if it is.
the spanker
Footballguy
Hmmmm...interesting. Some people advocate taking the dome kicker over the outside kicker especially as the FF playoffs loom near. Ghost isn't even in the top 5 kickers in my league. He's available and so is Cosby and Brown who are top 3 and 4 respectively.
Rackers was gold, but I think I picked him up in week 2 (I know I got his huge game). Also, the 7.5 average for Rackers is wrong. He missed a game, so it was really an 8.2 average. Also, my league rewards extra points for long FGs, and Rackers had 13 40-49 and 6 50+ FGs, and 11 of those 19 were after week 4, so even though he was studly in weeks 1-4, he was still well above average after that. In my case, I know he helped me win numerous games that year and he wasn't the K I drafted.One thing that seems very consistent with kickers is that the best ones year N are usually not the best ones in N+1. I tend to comb the waivers for kickers a lot more because of the pickup of Rackers and the difference he actually made. A lot of teams ignore that because they don't think it matters.Also, if you are having kicker issues, it pays to look at who the FA kickers are playing. I picked up Josh Brown this past week knowing he was playing SF. He finished with 3 XPs and 1 FG, but he had 2 FGs that he made erased by penalties and they punted once and he missed a 54 yarder the other team. Even though I didn't get as many points as I hoped for, he did end up getting the opportunities that I figured he would. It is rare to have 2 FGs wiped out by penalties, so that part was just unlucky. No penalties and Brown has a 12 point game, which is very good for a kicker.
War Eagle
Footballguy
Give me a kicker on a top 10 offense every time! Xtra Points and FG opportunities abound!
Take for example Gostkowski. I drafted Akers (last pick...ALWAYS LAST PICK!) and dropped him week 3 for Gostkowski.
The dude only has 11 FGs on the year but the 46 XPs makes up for it ten fold.
Another good one this year under this same theory is Nick Folk.
Take for example Gostkowski. I drafted Akers (last pick...ALWAYS LAST PICK!) and dropped him week 3 for Gostkowski.
The dude only has 11 FGs on the year but the 46 XPs makes up for it ten fold.
Another good one this year under this same theory is Nick Folk.
gigantor
Footballguy
Stover's actually had a bad year, thanks to that mighty Ravens O..
Rogi
Footballguy
You don't want a team that's offense can't score at all because they get behind in the game and abandon FGs altogether.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Redraft leagues I usually do the waiver wire thing, but in Dynasty leagues I like having a young/vet combination. I liked Crosby and Stover coming into the year so I have them in one league and then Crosby, Folk, Reed in another. I think that people underestimate week to week kicker matchups. If you look at the SOS for kickers this week, the range is from +3.1 to -2.9. That's a 6 point swing. It just makes sense to check that each week and within reason start the kicker with the best SOS, either from your lineup or from the waiver.
