Strategy question in approaching draft where runs start early (1 Viewer)

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Wanted to know everyone's opinions on what to do if in a particular league you know runs will start a little earlier than they should.

It isn't really that runs start - wherein one guy takes a QB and then 5 of the next 7 therefore take a QB.

It's just that overall, some of the non-RB and non-WR positions seems to get drafted a tad too early.

For instance, I was reviewing the last two years of one of my leagues' drafts. I did this so I could try and figure out a good baseline to set in the DD or VBD app to print cheatsheets customized to my league.

Well, I noticed that in both years, QBs, TEs, and DSTs all got drafted a bit earlier than in most of my other leagues. Nothing outrategous - it wasn't like 8 TEs were gone through 6 rounds or anything like that. But overall, these three positions were getting drafted soon after many teams had their starting RBs and WRs - or in some cases before a team filled up on those positions.

So my question is how would you use this to your advantage?

Here are my two different approaches to this (but I am not sure which is better):

1) My first inclination is to let them take all those QBs, TEs, and DSTs. Meanwhile, I would get that many more RBs and WRs. I can get great depth at those two positions that way. Then later on, take 2 lesser QBs. (So if Manning, Palmer, Bulger, Brees, Brady, etc are all gone -- I could just go with 2 of: Hass, Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Leinart, Roethlisberger, etc.)

Same approach for TEs and DSTs. While missing out on the top TEs and top DSTs, I could grab two TEs much later and two DSTs much later.

But then I realized, this doesn't give me a top guy at any of those: QB, TE, DST. And we aren't just talking about missing out on the top 3-5 of each of those. I'd be missing out on the top 10 or so at each of those positions.

So the other idea...

2) Instead of getting sucked into a run - try to start it. Not for each of: QBs, TEs, and DSTs - but for at least one, if not two.

In theory, this would mean getting a top guy (albeit not absolute top b/c I am not taking Manning in first). But getting a very close to top guy. Then am I really missing out on depth at RB and WR if afterall, many will be taking non-RBs and non-WRs a little early?! (Thus, some RBs and WRs will fall anyway.)

(Did that even make sense?)

I guess what this alternative is doing is making me realize - so what if I have 6 great RBs if we only start 2 (plus a 3rd max on flex)? While it often pays to deviate from a plan if someone unexpectedly falls to you - just how often do you do this?

Meaning in hypothetical terms: if I were thinking of grabbing a QB in the 7th, but some RB is still around who just shouldn't be - I take the RB and wait on QB til next round.

Now it's the 8th, but some WR who clearly shouldn't be around happens to be - so I take the WR.

If you keep doing this, you aren't grabbing a QB, TE, or DST til after 12 or more rounds in this particular league.

Anyway, it is sort of like the thread or article (I can't recall which it was) that someone came out with almost a year ago about drafting in non-shark leagues. And how in some ways it is almost harder. Because while sharks are grabbing the RBs/WRs that seem to fall - they are never getting a good QB/TE/DST.

Would love some thoughts and approaches others would take (or have in their own leagues).

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Let them all reach while you load up with value like you are supposed to do.

 

[solwoldjr]

I wouldn't recommend trying to start the runs. If you did draft more quality WR and RB than you need you could accomplish two things. First you'd build depth to protect you against injury. Second if you stay healthy you could always trade for someone's defense or TE.

If you really want a top 5 QB (which I do) then go for one. I would never draft a TE or especially a DEF just because everyojne else is. The DEF is almost impossible to predict and they are usually pretty close in points produced anyway. Ditto for the TE.

 

[stevegamer]

There's no law that you need to fill RB & WR first - people forget this a lot. You win by getting the best starting team.

Your first answer can be found in two words: Antonio Gates. Now that he is sitting as the #1 TE, you can possibly start a run with him AND have him be good value. run the numbers and check.

Your second answer is: If you see a QB you like a lot once you've got 3 guys rostered, it could be fine, but make sure they are comfortably top 5 or so. If they are just around 6th or worse, you can do that well later with QBBC.

Your last answer is 2 of four words: Bears defense, Ravens defense. Note that many projections show these 2 as the cream of the crop, and if you look straight up at VBD they have value, but lack of positional scarcity pushes them down. If your league drafts the first couple D's more to value, and less to fantasy norms, you need to be ready. Either have some sleeper D's you like in a committee, or be willing to grab one first.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Surely the collective wisdom of the shark pool has more insight and opinions on this!!

C'mon faulks - real strategy question here.

 

[PsychoMan]

It seems that every year the guys that win my leagues "reach" on a TE, DEF and or QB and get the studs. They don't have injury problems at the RB/WR positions and get studs at the others. They end up winning while I play it safe and load up on RBs & WRs just to come in 2nd, 3rd or 4th .

This year I'm seriously thinking of taking a "chance" and trying to round out my starting roster before going for depth. Of course luck is involved, but if your guys stay healthy, and you get top notch guys at all starting positions it just seems like that's how ya win.

 

[Captain Hook]

Surely the collective wisdom of the shark pool has more insight and opinions on this!!C'mon faulks - real strategy question here.

Without any mention of how many teams; scoring rules; part of the country where drafters are from?Or do you just want some hypothetical BS?

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Surely the collective wisdom of the shark pool has more insight and opinions on this!!C'mon faulks - real strategy question here.

Without any mention of how many teams; scoring rules; part of the country where drafters are from?Or do you just want some hypothetical BS?

I didn't want to make it about my specific league because then people don't like to answer.Many in here tend to prefer threads about strategy questions. Ideas that can be applied to most leagues (albeit if yours is drastically different, then it can't be).But I was really looking for opinions like the previous one - by gferrell.I was hoping for some insight. So that is why I wanted to shy away from the particulars about my specific league.

 

[videoguy505]

I wouldn't recommend trying to start the runs.

Why is starting runs considered bad? If you have an idea of the dropoff you might not be giving away that much. For example, let's say you know if you grab Carson Palmer in the third instead of Marvin Harrison or Thomas Jones, that people will panic and they'll draft 8 QBs in the next 12 picks before you go next. So, you grab Palmer instead of waiting for later and getting someone like Roethisburger. But when your next pick comes up, Larry Fitzgerald or ADP or Deuce McAllister might still be there, since 8 of the draft picks before you came up went to a position you already had filled--basically, you didn't miss out on anything... overall you're giving up maybe a point a week difference in either WR or RB to make up 3 points per week at QB, that's profit.

 

[Tubalcane]

Let them all reach while you load up with value like you are supposed to do.

Exactly...he speaks wisdom

 

[John Mamula]

Starting requirements are key because that defines your starters. You also need to define what a "starter" is, because in a start 3 WR you are playing your 5th drafted WR a good 25% of the season. This is why I am adament about depth at the RB and WR spots, try to grab a top 5 TE (not Gates but someone in the 2nd tier), and I wait on QBs and DTs.

Regarding runs, just let them happen. This happened to me in a league I just drafted in where multiple QBs were flying off the board a good 4 rounds before their ADP. I waited, got a ton of talent at the RB and WR spots, and ended up with Alex Smith, JP Losman, and Brody Croyle as my QBs. Nothing flasgy, but a solid corps. Plus I watch the first week or two to see if a WW QB is performing well and will add him to the roster.

Don't get caught up in "starters" because many players you consider "backups" are actually starters for a good portion of your season.

 

[toppshelff]

Two thoughts:

1) If your league trades often, always draft value. Best value can be traded for positions when the chips are down. When people are desperately looking for RBs because they "reached" for QB/TE, you have what they need, for a price.

2) If one QB is off the board and you see Carson/Brady at about the right value, feel free to start the run. Just don't reach for him. While others follow your lead, they aren't drafting value players at other positions. Somebody of value will make it back to you.

My league trades a lot, and I've found myself with 5 RBs in the first 6 rounds. Always worked out great as desperation around the league sets in.

 

[maddawg2020]

your league size makes a huge difference here. I've noticed that there isn't a drastic difference in my strategy in leagues with 12, 14, or 16 teams. I just draft value for the first 7-8 rounds and then begin to deviate when needed to fill in my roster but with 10-team leagues I notice that my strategy must be significantly different. I still draft for BEST PLAYER in my first two picks and then after that I've gotta identify where the drop-offs at each position takes place and where they are gonna be drafted. this is where you've gotta be thinking fast in between picks. if the last guy at a particular position before the drop-off is going to be drafted before my next pick and if he's a player that is one of the next best 7-9 overall players than I would consider it.

I find there has to be a happy medium between the two theories of "drafting best player available" and "starting the run". this is more of an art than it is a science.

 

[podunker]

1. Only take RB, WR in rounds one and two.

2. Look for Gates early in the 3rd (in PPR league)

3. Pick up your QB in round 4, should still get a good one. (If not, wait and take Big Ben later!)

4. Start getting value RB's and WR's the next few rounds. (T. Bell, Foster, F. Taylor)

5. Make getting your starters a priority, but don't pass on great value.

Wait on defense and kicker!