Strength of Schedule when picking defense (1 Viewer)

[The Rook]

After the top 2-3 defenses/special teams, there's very little difference in the average scoring per week. I've found in our league that many people "chase" the teams that have a hot week or two.

My thought is to really leverage the strength of schedule tool provided to subscribers. As I scanned that list there are several teams that jumped out at me. I don't want to give away content, so I won't post actual strength of schedule, but if you don't have one of the top few defenses, you may want to see if the Packers are available on your waiver wire.

They have a very favorable stretch and in particular have good matchups week 14-16..... and even 17 if that is your superbowl.

 

[EdwardCat]

After the top 2-3 defenses/special teams, there's very little difference in the average scoring per week. I've found in our league that many people "chase" the teams that have a hot week or two.My thought is to really leverage the strength of schedule tool provided to subscribers. As I scanned that list there are several teams that jumped out at me. I don't want to give away content, so I won't post actual strength of schedule, but if you don't have one of the top few defenses, you may want to see if the Packers are available on your waiver wire.They have a very favorable stretch and in particular have good matchups week 14-16..... and even 17 if that is your superbowl.

Someone in my league dropped them last week. I went right out and grabbed them for the rest of the year. I LUV SOS.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

I don't have hard numbers to back this up, but it seems pretty clear to me that Team Def is probably the most Schedule-dependent position. After the first few weeks the really bad teams (i.e., great matchups) start to become evident, and finding TDs that face them can be very profitable.

Scoring system and roster requirements obviously have an impact on this, but I have had several seasons where I played WW matchups all year. This is particularly effective in smaller leagues where there is lots to choose from on the wire. Back when HOU was giving up 70 sacks a season, I chased their opponents most of the year, getting something like 8 or 9 matchups against them over 17 weeks plus some other nice matchups along the way. I had to carry 2-3 defenses at a time to secure the matchups ahead of time, but our rosters allowed that. I am pretty sure I outscored the number one defense that year.

You have to be careful using just the SOS numbers because sometimes a couple fluke returns for TD can skew a teams numbers. The key is knowing what makes an offense so bad, and keeping up with whether those conditions will continue. for example, if injuries are leaving an offense inept, be aware if those players start coming back. If poor QB play is the cause, watch for a replacement. If a team changes its philosophy to get away from its weaknesses be aware.

When evaluating matchups I will look at the season-long numbers, but I also focus on the last few weeks to see if a high scoring trend is continuing (or emerging) for certain teams.

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't have hard numbers to back this up, but it seems pretty clear to me that Team Def is probably the most Schedule-dependent position. After the first few weeks the really bad teams (i.e., great matchups) start to become evident, and finding TDs that face them can be very profitable.

Scoring system and roster requirements obviously have an impact on this, but I have had several seasons where I played WW matchups all year. This is particularly effective in smaller leagues where there is lots to choose from on the wire. Back when HOU was giving up 70 sacks a season, I chased their opponents most of the year, getting something like 8 or 9 matchups against them over 17 weeks plus some other nice matchups along the way. I had to carry 2-3 defenses at a time to secure the matcup ahead of time, but our rosters allowed hat. I am pretty sure I outscored the number one defense that year.

You have to be careful using just the SOS numbers because sometimes a couple fluke returns for TD can skew a teams numbers. The key is knowing what makes an offense so bad, and keeping up with whether those conditions will continue. for example, if injuries are leaving an offense inept, be aware if those players start coming back. If poor QB play is the cause, watch for a replacement. If a team changes its philosophy to get away from its weaknesses be aware.

When evaluating matchups I will look at the season-long numbers, but I also focus on the last few weeks to see if a high scoring trend is continuing (or emerging) for certain teams.

I believe Footballoutsiders.com and the Prospectus have done some research and this was the finding. Defenses are quite dependent on matchups.

 

[The Ref]

I'm targeting whoever plays the Rams for the next few weeks. Talk about profitable.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Get the Giants defense. They're the #1 fantasy defense since week 2 and the schedule the rest of the way is very favorable. You probably can't get them off the WW now but if you can trade for them you should.

 

[stickboy]

The question is how good are the strength of schedule measurements? Most are backward looking and use averages from a fairly small set of games. Others try to use positional averages, e.g., FBG compares RB fantasy points relative to the average the RB scores against other teams. Are these good enough indicators to provide accurate estimates of which team defense has the overall best set of match ups?

 

[the spanker]

The question is how good are the strength of schedule measurements? Most are backward looking and use averages from a fairly small set of games. Others try to use positional averages, e.g., FBG compares RB fantasy points relative to the average the RB scores against other teams. Are these good enough indicators to provide accurate estimates of which team defense has the overall best set of match ups?

I have the Skins D but they are playing the Pats this week? The Chargers D is available but do you think they are a good pickup this week with the fires going on in Cali? Where would you rank them for the rest of the season?

 

[DolphinsPhan]

I'm targeting whoever plays the Rams for the next few weeks. Talk about profitable.

Be careful with this strategy as SJax is coming back this weekend and they are playing at home.Matchups I like this weekend (in no particular order) are:Saints @ 49ers (Dilfer in there, Gore hobbled)Bucs v Jaguars (new QB for Jags, Bucs at home)Colts @ Panthers (is Vinny starting for Carolina)

 

[the spanker]

I'm targeting whoever plays the Rams for the next few weeks. Talk about profitable.

Be careful with this strategy as SJax is coming back this weekend and they are playing at home.Matchups I like this weekend (in no particular order) are:Saints @ 49ers (Dilfer in there, Gore hobbled)Bucs v Jaguars (new QB for Jags, Bucs at home)Colts @ Panthers (is Vinny starting for Carolina)

No Chargers D here?

 

[posty]

I'm targeting whoever plays the Rams for the next few weeks. Talk about profitable.

Be careful with this strategy as SJax is coming back this weekend and they are playing at home.Matchups I like this weekend (in no particular order) are:Saints @ 49ers (Dilfer in there, Gore hobbled)Bucs v Jaguars (new QB for Jags, Bucs at home)Colts @ Panthers (is Vinny starting for Carolina)

Tampa Bay is not very good against the run (123 YPG allowed) so I would expect the Jaguars to run the ball a lot...

 

[Happy Gilmore]

An interesting thing to add to this is Baltimore's SOS for the remainder of the season. It's pretty ugly, yet FBG top 250 forward has them ranked pretty high..... these seem to contradict each other. I'm sure a lot of people are looking for a bye week replacement for Baltimore this week. A lot of us also probably only carry one defense on our rosters as well. I'm in this situation, and thinking about flat out dropping Baltimore's D.

 

[DolphinsPhan]

I'm targeting whoever plays the Rams for the next few weeks. Talk about profitable.

Be careful with this strategy as SJax is coming back this weekend and they are playing at home.Matchups I like this weekend (in no particular order) are:Saints @ 49ers (Dilfer in there, Gore hobbled)Bucs v Jaguars (new QB for Jags, Bucs at home)Colts @ Panthers (is Vinny starting for Carolina)

No Chargers D here?

Yeah Chargers look like they have a decent matchup. My list above is pretty much what is available from my WW. Chargers D has been rostered since the draft so not available to play defense roulette this weekend.

 

[mr blond]

I'm targeting whoever plays the Rams for the next few weeks. Talk about profitable.

Only problem is that the Rams are playing Cleveland, the worst defense in the league. Bad offense vs. bad defense, something got to give, but I'd take my chances elsewhere if there were a better one out there.