Over the course of the year, I'll attempt to pop in here from time to time to lend some observations. They will primarily be about pitching, as that is the side of baseball that interests me most, however, there may be some hitting stuff thrown in from time to time too.
I certainly encourage anyone else that reads this to offer some opinions, as I hope this thread can become a helpful read to all.
On my analysis, you will probably not hear me mention much bapip, fip, uzr, war, and other like acronym's as I feel these are thrown around by people who like to fancy themselves smarter than they actually are. Instead, I'll watch the game and offer interesting tidbits from time to time. And with that, away we go....
First week - Guys I'm buying
Jorge De La Rosa - P - Col
Yeah, I know, really going out on a limb there for a guy that's probably owned in just about every single league. I actively tried to get this guy in just about every league...and those I didn't, well, I was hoping to snag him off a cheap trade early in the year. You know one of those trades where someone says "How about Miguel Cabrera for Carl Crawford?" And you counter, "well, that's a bit too steep, but Crawford and De La Rosa for Cabrera"....and they say okay fine you know, where you get an extra player out of the deal coming off a bad start to the year or something? Well, De La Rosa effed that plan by going out and getting 9 k's in his first game. This guy has very good stuff, and his first game was even more of a gem than the box score dictates. Do you realize that he only allowed one ball out of the infield? And that was a lazy fly to center with 2 outs in the seventh inning. And while the Padres lineup isn't exactly murderer's row - they did manage to throw up 17 last night against the Braves. I think people are always going to shy away from Coor's pitchers, but their staff managed to put up respectable numbers last year, and you have a hard nosed, good defensive team behind you. It's not Petco, but it's not 5+ ERA time either over there. De La Rosa has 95+mph heater, good off speed stuff and seeming knows how to pitch. He may have a bad start here or there along the way, but this is a guy I'm buying. As an aside, Latos was running it up there pretty good in that game, and about 93-94 mph.
Guys I'd be selling
Barry Zito - P - SF
Okay, I didn't draft him in any of my leagues, and I'm sure if you did, it's not exactly like you were counting on him to be the anchor of your staff. But, this is a great example of a guy to sell HIGH, and I'll give you a few solid sales pitches, as well as my reasons for disliking him going forward. First off, you've got yourself two wins in the bank, a solid WHIP/ERA, and a few k's. To sweeten the sale, feel free to point out that Zito was solid the second half of last year, with a sub 3.0 era. Now, the reasons I'd be selling. First off, he has faced two minor league offenses in Houston and Pittsburgh. It doesn't get any softer than this. The Astros offense is beyond anemic with Berkman out, and the two major league hitters they do have (Lee & Pence) are off to a combined 6 for 52 start to the season with 1 hr and 2 rbi. Pirates are just slightly better but it's not like anyone on that lineup is a threat to win the triple crown any time soon...or get voted to start an all star game. In watching Zito pitch, he does not have any feel for his signature pitch, the curve ball, so he is relying on fast balls and with his 87 mph flat fast ball, eventually it's going to get hit hard. He does have decent control, and I would expect him to get his curve back at some point, but I think this is about the high point of his season. I'm sticking a big old avoid on his head right here, right now.
Guys on my radar
Gil Meche - P - KC
Yes, he had a rough first outing last out against the Red Sox. But, let's keep a few things in mind here. First, it was his first start of the season, fresh off the DL, so there had to have been a major rust on that arm. Second, this is the Red Sox, they are going to score a lot of runs against a lot of teams this year. They take a lot of pitches, always seem to have guys on base, and this is going to be troubling especially against a poor defensive/poor offensive team. That being said, Meche was running it up there in the high-90's his first start out - I'm talking consistently 95, 96, 97 mph. That's pretty encouraging on your first start off the DL. His slider had some good late bite to it, he was just having trouble locating it in the strike zone. He was pitching behind a bit too much for my liking against a solid offensive team, and that led to him getting touched up. But, it looked to me like his arm had a few live pitches, and I'll certainly look to see how his next start goes - albeit against another very solid offensive team that feasts on righties, the Twins. Now, again, the defense behind him is poor at best, and the offense is anemic, so you're not going to look at a ton of wins here. But if you're looking for some cheap strikeouts, I think Meche can be a good source, and his era/whip shouldn't be killers. Officially "on the radar"
I certainly encourage anyone else that reads this to offer some opinions, as I hope this thread can become a helpful read to all.
On my analysis, you will probably not hear me mention much bapip, fip, uzr, war, and other like acronym's as I feel these are thrown around by people who like to fancy themselves smarter than they actually are. Instead, I'll watch the game and offer interesting tidbits from time to time. And with that, away we go....
First week - Guys I'm buying
Jorge De La Rosa - P - Col
Yeah, I know, really going out on a limb there for a guy that's probably owned in just about every single league. I actively tried to get this guy in just about every league...and those I didn't, well, I was hoping to snag him off a cheap trade early in the year. You know one of those trades where someone says "How about Miguel Cabrera for Carl Crawford?" And you counter, "well, that's a bit too steep, but Crawford and De La Rosa for Cabrera"....and they say okay fine you know, where you get an extra player out of the deal coming off a bad start to the year or something? Well, De La Rosa effed that plan by going out and getting 9 k's in his first game. This guy has very good stuff, and his first game was even more of a gem than the box score dictates. Do you realize that he only allowed one ball out of the infield? And that was a lazy fly to center with 2 outs in the seventh inning. And while the Padres lineup isn't exactly murderer's row - they did manage to throw up 17 last night against the Braves. I think people are always going to shy away from Coor's pitchers, but their staff managed to put up respectable numbers last year, and you have a hard nosed, good defensive team behind you. It's not Petco, but it's not 5+ ERA time either over there. De La Rosa has 95+mph heater, good off speed stuff and seeming knows how to pitch. He may have a bad start here or there along the way, but this is a guy I'm buying. As an aside, Latos was running it up there pretty good in that game, and about 93-94 mph.
Guys I'd be selling
Barry Zito - P - SF
Okay, I didn't draft him in any of my leagues, and I'm sure if you did, it's not exactly like you were counting on him to be the anchor of your staff. But, this is a great example of a guy to sell HIGH, and I'll give you a few solid sales pitches, as well as my reasons for disliking him going forward. First off, you've got yourself two wins in the bank, a solid WHIP/ERA, and a few k's. To sweeten the sale, feel free to point out that Zito was solid the second half of last year, with a sub 3.0 era. Now, the reasons I'd be selling. First off, he has faced two minor league offenses in Houston and Pittsburgh. It doesn't get any softer than this. The Astros offense is beyond anemic with Berkman out, and the two major league hitters they do have (Lee & Pence) are off to a combined 6 for 52 start to the season with 1 hr and 2 rbi. Pirates are just slightly better but it's not like anyone on that lineup is a threat to win the triple crown any time soon...or get voted to start an all star game. In watching Zito pitch, he does not have any feel for his signature pitch, the curve ball, so he is relying on fast balls and with his 87 mph flat fast ball, eventually it's going to get hit hard. He does have decent control, and I would expect him to get his curve back at some point, but I think this is about the high point of his season. I'm sticking a big old avoid on his head right here, right now.
Guys on my radar
Gil Meche - P - KC
Yes, he had a rough first outing last out against the Red Sox. But, let's keep a few things in mind here. First, it was his first start of the season, fresh off the DL, so there had to have been a major rust on that arm. Second, this is the Red Sox, they are going to score a lot of runs against a lot of teams this year. They take a lot of pitches, always seem to have guys on base, and this is going to be troubling especially against a poor defensive/poor offensive team. That being said, Meche was running it up there in the high-90's his first start out - I'm talking consistently 95, 96, 97 mph. That's pretty encouraging on your first start off the DL. His slider had some good late bite to it, he was just having trouble locating it in the strike zone. He was pitching behind a bit too much for my liking against a solid offensive team, and that led to him getting touched up. But, it looked to me like his arm had a few live pitches, and I'll certainly look to see how his next start goes - albeit against another very solid offensive team that feasts on righties, the Twins. Now, again, the defense behind him is poor at best, and the offense is anemic, so you're not going to look at a ton of wins here. But if you're looking for some cheap strikeouts, I think Meche can be a good source, and his era/whip shouldn't be killers. Officially "on the radar"
