SUDDEN IMPACT Our Lades draft study (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Solid work that shows the positions where rookies can come in and contribute immediately.

In format where I can't cut-and-paste the data that supports the opening teaser and introductory first paragraph so go to the link for the full story that shows 12 different positions rated by IMPACT for rookie seasons.

Nice article.

Sudden Impact Our Lad draft study

Sudden Impact

Positions Where Rookies Contribute Immediately

By Joe Landers

Running back and fullback are the two easiest positions for rookies to come in and make an impact right away. Here’s why:

Last year, I completed my first study of “Sudden Impact”. The purpose was to determine if there were positions at which rookies could excel more easily than others. Highlights, touchdowns, paychecks, accolades, and Pro Bowl invitations are all ways by which rookies are measured, but they’re not scientific.

The method I found most true was to see how many rookies, at each position, performed Over Veteran Average (OVA). All performance results are based on an all-encompassing point value system which rewards and penalizes players for virtually every recordable stat on the field.

For example, in 2008, the veteran average for Running Backs was 64.37 points for the entire season. 11 rookies exceeded the veteran average of 64.37. 37 veteran RBs were over 64.37 in 2008. Between the vets and rooks, that’s 48 running backs who were OVA last year. With 11 of the 48 being rookies, that’s 23% of the OVA pool being rookies. Running Back was the #1 position at which rookies came in OVA.

Models only work if they’re continually updated. The below table was presented in last year’s “Sudden Impact” with data from 2006 and 2007. The 2008 data has been added.

A few conclusions which jump out right off the bat:

•RB #1 - With Running Back in 1st place in 2008 (23%), 5th place in 2007 (9%), and 1st place in 2006 (16%), it’s highly likely that RB will consistently come in the Top-5.

•FB #2 - Fullback also finished in the top-6 all three years (17%, 10%, and 9%). Expect at least 10% of the OVA FBs in 2009 to be rookies. It’s the #2 easiest positions for rookies to transition into from college to the pros.

•Kicker Not for Rookies - At 3%, 8%, and 0%, Kicker is apparently the most difficult position for rookies to come in and make a veteran-equivalent impact right away.

•Three ’09 TEs OVA - At 9%, 9%, and 9%, the Tight End OVA number has been highly consistent year in and year out. TE has ranked no higher than 6th among all positions, but there have been exactly three rookies OVA each year. Look for another three (not four or two) to perform OVA in 2009.

ALL POSITIONS

Below is a table presented in descending order with the top rookie impact positions first and the lowest rookie impact positions last.

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Go to link for the data/meat of the article.Conclusions are not too suprising but it is interesting to see rookie impact from the different positions and then try to extrapolate FF/rookie impact especially for a position like a rookie TE and try to figure out when they might provide IMPACT or return on investing a fantasy draft selection.

On a side note I disputed Sig saying he felt Cleveland rookie TE Jordan Cameron could make an impact this year ALA Jimmy Graham with the Saints last season. I like the kid but in the back of my mind I knew from experience that rookie TEs tend to take longer to make IMPACT. Seeing the raw data suppports that observation because rookie TEs do tend to make an impact 'after' their rookie season as backed by the data and personal observations. Sig did clarify that he felt Cameron would shine later in the year ALA Graham from last year but I held that with the lockout WRs and TEs would be more adversely effected so their contribuutions would be even less than normal and the typical impact shows they don't make a huge splash in rookie campaigns.