Sunday night game (1 Viewer)

[Steelers4Life]

And that matters why exactly? If a team wins 10+ games, that means they're a good enough team to rarely lose a late lead in the first place.

Off the top of my head, the Chargers won 9 games against a brutal schedule last year, and the Steelers used an 11 play, 40 yard drive in the closing minutes to set up a game-winning field goal. It's one of Ben's SEVEN 4th quarter and OT game winning drives in his 2 years as the starter.

And again, does any of this matter?

Just like Assani Fisher asked a few posts ago, what exactly has SD done to deserve this kind of thinking? Don't get me wrong, I think they're a very solid team - remind me a lot of the Steelers last year. Great run defense and an opportunistic pass defense. A big-time playmaker leading the defense. Great running game. It just remains to be seen if Rivers can make the kind of plays consistently that Roethlisberger did leading up to the Super Bowl last year.

 

[BGP]

Here's a great trivia question.Name me the last time the Steelers trailed in the 4th quarter and won against a club that had 10+ wins that season? The win can come in the regular season or the playoffs.I have scanned back to 2003 and not found one yet.

Actually I found one more recent - the 2004 divisional playoff win over the 10-win Jets. That was the game where Herman Edwards basically lost the game by shutting down his offense in Steeler territory and kicking the long FG, which was missed.

 

[BGP]

I've scanned all the way back thru the 1999 season.

That dubious 4th quarter comeback win over the 10-win Jets in 2004 is the only one I can find.

I'll keep looking to find another - I'm like halfway thru the Cowher era though.

 

[Steelers4Life]

I've scanned all the way back thru the 1999 season.That dubious 4th quarter comeback win over the 10-win Jets in 2004 is the only one I can find.I'll keep looking to find another - I'm like halfway thru the Cowher era though.

BGP, why does it matter in the first place? Like I said a few posts ago, teams that win 10+ games win that many games because they don't lose late leads.And this has nothing to do with the Steelers/Chargers game.

 

[BGP]

I found it!

The last time Bill Cowher came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat a club with 10+ wins in the regular season was week 9 of 1997.

The Steelers trailed the 11-win Jaguars 10-7 to start the 4th quarter. The rest of the game:

Fourth Quarter

Pit--K.Stewart 6 run (N.Johnson kick), 2:39.

Jac--P.Mitchell 3 pass from M.Brunell (M.Hollis kick), 6:47.

Pit--FG N.Johnson 19, 12:39.

Overtime

Pit--J.Bettis 17 pass from K.Stewart, 5:47.

So there it is.

 

[BGP]

I've scanned all the way back thru the 1999 season.That dubious 4th quarter comeback win over the 10-win Jets in 2004 is the only one I can find.I'll keep looking to find another - I'm like halfway thru the Cowher era though.

BGP, why does it matter in the first place? Like I said a few posts ago, teams that win 10+ games win that many games because they don't lose late leads.And this has nothing to do with the Steelers/Chargers game.

I can point to quite a few clubs that come from behind in the 4th against top clubs.The point I'm making is that the weakness of the Cowher Steelers is that they aren't a comeback team.

 

[gocats]

I dont think i have ever seen a line so far off. I was sure the spread in that game was going to be in the 7 - 8 range. I was shocked to see it at - 3 1/2 last night, no way this spread is not at least 5 by Sunday. Does anyone really think Pittsburgh can even make a game off this?(Other than Steeler homers)

Yes, i unloaded my yearly winnings on the Chargers this morning as soon as the game went up on my site.

Yeah. Steelers are 1-2 but with losses to Jacksonville and Cincinnati, two of the better teams in the conference. Steelers lost to Jacksonville and were beaten in Pittsburgh by the Bengals last year too, and we know how that ended up. Roethlisberger just needs to get back into the flow of things and let the plays come to him, rather than forcing the ball. He's Handed the ball off well in the past, and is eminently capable of turning his play around.

handing off the ball again

The Chargers beat up on possibly the worst two teams in football, and got beaten last week the first time they played a good team. As far as I'm concerned, they're unproven. Most people probably think these teams are pretty evenly matched. Thus, the line reflects the home field, as it should.

Stop here.

editted for accuracy

 

[BGP]

The last time the Patriots did it:

Week 3 last year against the 11-win Steelers. They trailed 13-10 at the start of the 4th, and won the 4th quarter 13-7 for the win. Patriots off the top of my head notably also did it against the Panthers in the 2003 super bowl, and the Raiders in the snow game in 2001.

 

[Steelers4Life]

I've scanned all the way back thru the 1999 season.That dubious 4th quarter comeback win over the 10-win Jets in 2004 is the only one I can find.I'll keep looking to find another - I'm like halfway thru the Cowher era though.

BGP, why does it matter in the first place? Like I said a few posts ago, teams that win 10+ games win that many games because they don't lose late leads.And this has nothing to do with the Steelers/Chargers game.

I can point to quite a few clubs that come from behind in the 4th against top clubs.The point I'm making is that the weakness of the Cowher Steelers is that they aren't a comeback team.

Funny, the Steelers came from behind against the 11-win Bengals from 10 points down TWICE last year in the playoffs. I know, I know... that doesn't count because Palmer got hurt, right? Nevermind then.C'mon now. It took you research to realize that while the Steelers spent nearly a decade building teams on a running game and defense, they weren't a strong come from behind team with Tomczak, Stewart, and Maddox throwing the ball? Roethlisberger has 7 4th quarter/OT game-winning drives in 2 years. Before the last 2 weeks, he's been a very good late game QB, and I'd expect Ben to return to form sooner rather than later.

 

[pizzatyme]

I think this is the mother of all trap games!

I think the Steelers WILL shut down LT. 125 and a score won't be enough to beat the Steelers in this game.

Rivers is not proven. He doesn't look for his best weapon in Gates like Brees did.

Big Ben has played the worst ball of his career. I can't expect this to continue.

Pretty even game on paper. Line is 3-4. Anyone predicting a clear win for either team is out of their minds! This is a critical game for both teams. If Rivers goes for 250/2 I think SD wins.

If Big Ben goes for 250/2 I like the Steelers chances.

With that, my guess is with the more proven talent in Big Ben.

Man, how was that for a Colts homer? lol

 

[Steelers4Life]

I dont think i have ever seen a line so far off. I was sure the spread in that game was going to be in the 7 - 8 range. I was shocked to see it at - 3 1/2 last night, no way this spread is not at least 5 by Sunday. Does anyone really think Pittsburgh can even make a game off this?(Other than Steeler homers)

Yes, i unloaded my yearly winnings on the Chargers this morning as soon as the game went up on my site.

Yeah. Steelers are 1-2 but with losses to Jacksonville and Cincinnati, two of the better teams in the conference. Steelers lost to Jacksonville and were beaten in Pittsburgh by the Bengals last year too, and we know how that ended up. Roethlisberger just needs to get back into the flow of things and let the plays come to him, rather than forcing the ball. He's Handed the ball off well in the past, and is eminently capable of turning his play around.

handing off the ball again

The Chargers beat up on possibly the worst two teams in football, and got beaten last week the first time they played a good team. As far as I'm concerned, they're unproven. Most people probably think these teams are pretty evenly matched. Thus, the line reflects the home field, as it should.

Stop here.

editted for accuracy

Did you miss what Ben did in the 3 playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl last year? Or were you too busy crying about Palmer's knee to notice?

 

[BGP]

Ha. I've been scanning from week 1 to 17. So when I found the week 9 win in 1997, I stopped. Just realized I should check weeks 10-17. Turns out, there was a more recent regular season comeback win.

Week 11 of 1997:

Steelers 24, Patriots 21 (OT)

10-win Patriots took a 21-14 lead in the 4th quarter, and here's the 4th quarter on:

Fourth Quarter

Pit--FG N.Johnson 34, 2:05.

NE--D.Meggett 49 pass from D.Bledsoe (A.Vinatieri kick), 4:29.

Pit--M.Bruener 1 pass from K.Stewart (Y.Thigpen pass from K.Stewart), 14:22.

Overtime

Pit--FG N.Johnson 31, 4:43.

 

[da5exx]

I dont think i have ever seen a line so far off. I was sure the spread in that game was going to be in the 7 - 8 range. I was shocked to see it at - 3 1/2 last night, no way this spread is not at least 5 by Sunday. Does anyone really think Pittsburgh can even make a game off this?(Other than Steeler homers)Yes, i unloaded my yearly winnings on the Chargers this morning as soon as the game went up on my site.

The only thing I believe the Chargers have proven this year is that Martyball is still alive and well. If this is a close game, and I believe it will be, history says the Steelers will win. Incredible talent on the Chargers team but Marty sits on a lead. If - and I say if - Big Ben gets back to half the form we were used to seeing him in, he could easily rally to overcome the small leads Marty likes to give away. I have also witnessed Ben convert far too many 3rd and longs to judge him by two games. And that is the same reason that I cannot rate the Chargers highly after getting wins against two of the weakest teams in the league.

 

[BGP]

I can only go back to 1994. There was one more such comeback win.

1994 week 12 vs 10-win Dolphins

Steelers 16, Dolphins 13 (OT)

Dolphins 0-7-3-3-0 13

Steelers 3-3-0-7-3 16

First Quarter

Pit--FG Anderson 19, 7:04.

Second Quarter

Mia--Jackson 2 pass from Marino (Stoyanovich kick), 13:46.

Pit--FG Anderson 48, 14:54.

Third Quarter

Mia--FG Stoyanovich 34, 4:32.

Fourth Quarter

Pit--Foster 10 run (Anderson kick), 6:25.

Mia--FG Stoyanovich 48, 15:00.

Overtime

Pit--FG Anderson 39, 10:19.

 

[Odogs]

I've scanned all the way back thru the 1999 season.That dubious 4th quarter comeback win over the 10-win Jets in 2004 is the only one I can find.I'll keep looking to find another - I'm like halfway thru the Cowher era though.

BGP, why does it matter in the first place? Like I said a few posts ago, teams that win 10+ games win that many games because they don't lose late leads.And this has nothing to do with the Steelers/Chargers game.

I can point to quite a few clubs that come from behind in the 4th against top clubs.The point I'm making is that the weakness of the Cowher Steelers is that they aren't a comeback team.

It's a good thing they're usually ahead then, right?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Well, i cant say i didnt try to tell you guys.

Chargers cover easily, i take my winnings, move to Vegas, and get a job as an oddsmaker, because those guys missed big on this one.

P.S. The Chiefs -3 along with the Chargers makes for a nice little parlay. Thats my last free tip, from here on out, you guys are going to have to pay for this kind of info!!!

 

[Godsbrother]

The 01 Steeler loss should be fresher in your mind. Steelers were 28 in pass attempts, 1st in rush atttempts that year. Typical. But they trailed. And they were out of their element. Kordell was FORCED to make plays with his arm too much. And he couldn't come thru and wound up ripping off his helmet and crying.When you look at Ben in 2006, he's in that Kordell situation. They haven't been able to be dead last in the NFL in pass attempts and 1st in rush attempts. They've had to rely on Ben's arm. And he's failing just like Kordell. I think he's better than Kordell, but you're seeing how you beat the Cowher Steelers.

Go ahead and judge Ben by his 2 games this season, both coming less than a month after appendectomy surgery.If you want to look at little more data Ben has had 7 fourth quarter and overtime game winning drives since he began his career in 2004. In close games (games decided by 6 or less points) his record is 8-1.

See, this is another example. I can criticize any NFL team. But when its the Steelers, whoa here come the guys to defend them like they are perfect. You are 1-2. You have failed to come from behind in two games. Take a little criticism for once.

I never said that he was perfect. You made a comment about Ben's lack of ability to come from behind and I showed you that he has done it 7 times in 2 seasons, which is pretty impressive when you consider that most of the games he has played the Steelers were ahead. I am not aware of any QB that played in more than a few games that is 100% in come from behind wins.I watched the Chargers-Ravens game last week and the announcers made a big deal out it being McNair's 20th come from behind victory. McNair is a 12-year vet.You can criticize the Steelers all you want but I am going to call you on it when I think you are wrong.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Incredible talent on the Chargers team but Marty sits on a lead. I have also witnessed Ben convert far too many 3rd and longs to judge him by two games.

The Chargers outplayed the Ravens but lost due to Marty being conservative.Big Ben should not be thrown under the bus for year to date performance. 50% of the problem is not enough reps due to surgery, etc. and 50% is due to a slow start to the running game. Both issues will improve over time.It will be an interesting game because Pitt must win but may not be ready to win yet, the Chargers should win, and Marty can't win.

 

[Sheriff66]

Also, why is it Rivers against Steelers D, i am more banking on Tomlinson against the Steelers D than am i Rivers.

That is exactly what the Steelers are banking on, too.

Good, i hope they bring Polamalu up for run support, who will cover Gates?

Who is this Gates you speak of, there is someone named Gates on this team ?

 

[Sheriff66]

I dont like to put too much stock in past years results when looking at how a team is this year. Hypothetical situation, you take an NFL oddsmaker who has been stranded on a deserted island for the last 5 years. Now this oddsmaker, having no idea of the last 5 years results watched all the Chargers and Steelers games this year, what would he set the line at? I know this is probably a bit extreme, but fact is the Chargers looked better in their only loss than the Steelers did in their only win.

You said 27-10 Chargers is this game ??? Can't wait to bump this one Sunday night, you act like the Ravens offense is any better than last year, they are 27th overall even with McNair...

 

[Sheriff66]

Line seems perfect to me. SD has beaten Tennessee and Oakland this year. Why does everyone think they're so great?

That's what I'm saying, Hofstra would give those 2 teams a run for their money, and they lost to the potent Ravens offense... :X

 

[Godsbrother]

Don't kid yourself, Sherriff. The Chargers are a quality team and beating them at home is not going to be easy.

I think the Chargers -3 1/2 is pretty much on the money.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Pittsburgh will win this game outright, so to take them when you are getting points seems like a lock.

 

[Sheriff66]

Don't kid yourself, Sherriff. The Chargers are a quality team and beating them at home is not going to be easy.I think the Chargers -3 1/2 is pretty much on the money.

I'm not saying that this game is going to be easy, Burning Sensation is, but don't tell me the Chargers are that much better than the Steelers after beating up on 2 step children then losing to the 27th ranked offense. The Steelers passing game could not have played any worse in those 2 losses, and they should be 2-1 IMO. The only thing I'm disputing in this game the notion that Burning Sensation thinks SD wins walking away....as I said earlier in this thread, this is going to be a good game.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

In a close game late, I doubt Cowher is going to trust Ben right now to throw. So I expect them to just run and run and run in that situation. So you don't respect the pass and bring guys up to stop the run.

Read : If you don't abandon the run completely later in the game, you don't trust your QB.Notice on your "killing the clock example" that the Steelers had gained 10 yards on those two running plays, Haynes just coughed it up. if you watched that game, you'd know that the Steelers were ripping off chunks of yardage at will vs. Cincy's run defense (a game plan the Patriots used to perfection this past Sunday.) Why on earth would you bail out on that when down by 4 points with most of the fourth quarter to play?At least know what you're talking about before you make statements like that.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

C'mon BGP, I'd expect better, even from you. You're going to point to a drive where they ran twice against a team that hadn't shown the ability to stop the run all day as evidence they got conservative?

Its been a glaring weakness of the Steelers under Cowher. Period. They have always looked absolutely clueless when trying to rally for a late come-from-behind win. The exception being 2005. You cannot deny that.

That's because they often had lousy QBs prior to Roethlisberger who were incapable of bringing the team back with their arms (see Stewart, Kordell) Since Roethlisberger took over, they have been MUCH more able to do so. It's not the coach, it's the QB.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

The 01 Steeler loss should be fresher in your mind. Steelers were 28 in pass attempts, 1st in rush atttempts that year. Typical. But they trailed. And they were out of their element. Kordell was FORCED to make plays with his arm too much. And he couldn't come thru and wound up ripping off his helmet and crying.When you look at Ben in 2006, he's in that Kordell situation. They haven't been able to be dead last in the NFL in pass attempts and 1st in rush attempts. They've had to rely on Ben's arm. And he's failing just like Kordell. I think he's better than Kordell, but you're seeing how you beat the Cowher Steelers.

You are a world-class fisherman.Wow - here's a revelation. The key to beating a run-oriented team is to get up early !!! Also, I like how you use a 2-game sample to determine that Ben is "failing" while ignoring the multiple games he rallied the team to win in the fourth quarter INCLUDING A WIN OVER SAN DIEGO LAST YEAR. Put the pole down.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Notice, I ripped Schottenheimer too. Did I get Charger homers running in to defend him? Uh no. It was just Steeler fan.

Yeah, and that's arbitrary too. Take a look at my sig and you see an example of why Steeler fans respond to you with such vitriol. You revel in every loss, post meaningless and ill-researched stats to support your flimsy points, try to devalue the Super Bowl win by blaming the officials, etc.. etc... Stop with this coy "Who me?" routine. Everyone knows you do this on purpose in order to obtain the exact reaction you get from Steeler fans, so can the "I don't get it..." routine. Seriously - it's transparent, old, and very, very...GAY

 

[Burning Sensation]

Don't kid yourself, Sherriff. The Chargers are a quality team and beating them at home is not going to be easy.I think the Chargers -3 1/2 is pretty much on the money.

I'm not saying that this game is going to be easy, Burning Sensation is, but don't tell me the Chargers are that much better than the Steelers after beating up on 2 step children then losing to the 27th ranked offense. The Steelers passing game could not have played any worse in those 2 losses, and they should be 2-1 IMO. The only thing I'm disputing in this game the notion that Burning Sensation thinks SD win walking away....as I said earlier in this thread, this is going to be a good game.

Yep, and i am sure after i am right Sunday night i will just be considered "lucky", and that you guys who thought it would be a close game will still be right, but will claim the Steelers just caught some bad breaks or some other excuse.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I dont think i have ever seen a line so far off. I was sure the spread in that game was going to be in the 7 - 8 range. I was shocked to see it at - 3 1/2 last night, no way this spread is not at least 5 by Sunday. Does anyone really think Pittsburgh can even make a game off this?(Other than Steeler homers)

Yes, i unloaded my yearly winnings on the Chargers this morning as soon as the game went up on my site.

Yeah. Steelers are 1-2 but with losses to Jacksonville and Cincinnati, two of the better teams in the conference. Steelers lost to Jacksonville and were beaten in Pittsburgh by the Bengals last year too, and we know how that ended up. Roethlisberger just needs to get back into the flow of things and let the plays come to him, rather than forcing the ball. He's Handed the ball off well in the past, and is eminently capable of turning his play around.

handing off the ball again

The Chargers beat up on possibly the worst two teams in football, and got beaten last week the first time they played a good team. As far as I'm concerned, they're unproven. Most people probably think these teams are pretty evenly matched. Thus, the line reflects the home field, as it should.

Stop here.

editted for accuracy

Please. Don't be that guy. Serious question : did you watch ANY of the Steelers' playoff games last year before the Super Bowl? I'll hold my breath waiting for your response.....

 

[Burning Sensation]

The 01 Steeler loss should be fresher in your mind. Steelers were 28 in pass attempts, 1st in rush atttempts that year. Typical. But they trailed. And they were out of their element. Kordell was FORCED to make plays with his arm too much. And he couldn't come thru and wound up ripping off his helmet and crying.

When you look at Ben in 2006, he's in that Kordell situation. They haven't been able to be dead last in the NFL in pass attempts and 1st in rush attempts. They've had to rely on Ben's arm. And he's failing just like Kordell. I think he's better than Kordell, but you're seeing how you beat the Cowher Steelers.

You are a world-class fisherman.

Wow - here's a revelation. The key to beating a run-oriented team is to get up early !!!

Also, I like how you use a 2-game sample to determine that Ben is "failing" while ignoring the multiple games he rallied the team to win in the fourth quarter INCLUDING A WIN OVER SAN DIEGO LAST YEAR. Put the pole down.

I am going to say the Bus had more to do with "rallying" the team to a 4th quarter win there.

 

[poopdawg]

Ha. I've been scanning from week 1 to 17. So when I found the week 9 win in 1997, I stopped. Just realized I should check weeks 10-17. Turns out, there was a more recent regular season comeback win.Week 11 of 1997:Steelers 24, Patriots 21 (OT)10-win Patriots took a 21-14 lead in the 4th quarter, and here's the 4th quarter on:Fourth QuarterPit--FG N.Johnson 34, 2:05.NE--D.Meggett 49 pass from D.Bledsoe (A.Vinatieri kick), 4:29.Pit--M.Bruener 1 pass from K.Stewart (Y.Thigpen pass from K.Stewart), 14:22.OvertimePit--FG N.Johnson 31, 4:43.

Great work detective I ask you this - WHO GIVES A ####!!! No one cares. What does this have to do with the discussion at hand?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I can only go back to 1994. There was one more such comeback win.

1994 week 12 vs 10-win Dolphins

Steelers 16, Dolphins 13 (OT)

Dolphins 0-7-3-3-0 13

Steelers 3-3-0-7-3 16

First Quarter

Pit--FG Anderson 19, 7:04.

Second Quarter

Mia--Jackson 2 pass from Marino (Stoyanovich kick), 13:46.

Pit--FG Anderson 48, 14:54.

Third Quarter

Mia--FG Stoyanovich 34, 4:32.

Fourth Quarter

Pit--Foster 10 run (Anderson kick), 6:25.

Mia--FG Stoyanovich 48, 15:00.

Overtime

Pit--FG Anderson 39, 10:19.

Question : What does it matter if it's a 10-win team or not? Why this arbitrary cutoff?

If a team is not a good come-from-behind team (and I'm not even arguing they are - their offense is not the Colts' offense, no one disputes that,) then riddle me this :

Roethlisberger has 7 come-from-behind game-winning fourth quarter drives as a starting QB.

Roethlisberger has 7 losses TOTAL as a starting QB. Assuming the Steelers were down in the 4th quarter of all 7 of those games (a pretty safe guess) - that means they have come back to win in 50% of the games in which they've trailed by any margin in the 4th quarter since Ben took over.

Find out what other QB's percentages are here, then report back to us on how this team can't play from behind. They can. They're not high-octane, but they have proven they can grind out tough wins from behind. Exactly what revelation do you think you're dropping on us by saying the way to beat a run-oriented team is to get ahead early and force them to get out of their comfort zone?

Oh, while we're at it, I seem to remember a Cowher team in the 2002 wild-card playoffs come from down 17 in the second half to win the game against another playoff team. I wish I could remember who they were playing.......

 

[cstu]

Also, why is it Rivers against Steelers D, i am more banking on Tomlinson against the Steelers D than am i Rivers.

That is exactly what the Steelers are banking on, too.

Good, i hope they bring Polamalu up for run support, who will cover Gates?

Who will call passing plays?

 

[Sheriff66]

Don't kid yourself, Sherriff. The Chargers are a quality team and beating them at home is not going to be easy.I think the Chargers -3 1/2 is pretty much on the money.

I'm not saying that this game is going to be easy, Burning Sensation is, but don't tell me the Chargers are that much better than the Steelers after beating up on 2 step children then losing to the 27th ranked offense. The Steelers passing game could not have played any worse in those 2 losses, and they should be 2-1 IMO. The only thing I'm disputing in this game the notion that Burning Sensation thinks SD win walking away....as I said earlier in this thread, this is going to be a good game.

Yep, and i am sure after i am right Sunday night i will just be considered "lucky", and that you guys who thought it would be a close game will still be right, but will claim the Steelers just caught some bad breaks or some other excuse.

If the Steelers lose a game, I have no problem saying it, but if they hand one away I will come right out and say it as well. I don’t get the reasoning why you think the Chargers are the best thing since sliced white bread, and so much better then the Steelers that they probably shouldn’t even show up. Care to explain ? You don't watch much football, huh ?

 

[Sheriff66]

We are playing SD this week, and not the 85 Bears, right ??????

 

[Evilgrin 72]

We are playing SD this week, and not the 85 Bears, right ??????

What's funny about BGP's tangent (which I'm sure he purports to relate to the game/thread at hand and not just a swipe at Pittsburgh) is that it completely ignores some other telling stats :The Chargers are dead last in passing attempts this year. They're starting a QB with 3 career starts. The Steelers defense is #2 in the NFL against the run, and has allowed 3.2 ypc. They have effectively shut down Tomlinson in previous meetings. So, the exact doomsday scenario he paints for Pittsburgh is equally likely to occur in the other direction istead (or as well.)Thus, one can expect a pretty tight, relatively low scoring game. Which means the line is right where it should be.

 

[Sheriff66]

We are playing SD this week, and not the 85 Bears, right ??????

What's funny about BGP's tangent (which I'm sure he purports to relate to the game/thread at hand and not just a swipe at Pittsburgh) is that it completely ignores some other telling stats :The Chargers are dead last in passing attempts this year. They're starting a QB with 3 career starts. The Steelers defense is #2 in the NFL against the run, and has allowed 3.2 ypc. They have effectively shut down Tomlinson in previous meetings. So, the exact doomsday scenario he paints for Pittsburgh is equally likely to occur in the other direction istead (or as well.)

Thus, one can expect a pretty tight, relatively low scoring game. Which means the line is right where it should be.

 

[cstu]

I think this is the mother of all trap games!

I think the Steelers WILL shut down LT. 125 and a score won't be enough to beat the Steelers in this game.

Rivers is not proven. He doesn't look for his best weapon in Gates like Brees did.

Big Ben has played the worst ball of his career. I can't expect this to continue.

Pretty even game on paper. Line is 3-4. Anyone predicting a clear win for either team is out of their minds! This is a critical game for both teams. If Rivers goes for 250/2 I think SD wins.

If Big Ben goes for 250/2 I like the Steelers chances.

With that, my guess is with the more proven talent in Big Ben.

Man, how was that for a Colts homer? lol

Take a look at what Rivers did when he was given a chance to throw in the first quarter. He targeted Gates on 8 of his 22 passes in the game, not sure what more he could have done to get the ball to him. The problem was that he only threw the ball 7 times after the 1st quarter until the last drive with 29 seconds left - 4 of them on 3rd down with the defense expecting pass.

2-5-SD36 (14:20) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short right to L.Tomlinson pushed ob at SD 43 for 7 yards (R.Lewis).

1-10-SD43 (13:53) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short left to E.Parker to BLT 48 for 9 yards (R.Lewis).

1-10-BAL45 (12:40) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to E.Parker.

3-13-BAL48 (11:51) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short right to A.Gates to BLT 35 for 13 yards (R.Lewis, E.Reed).

2-6-BAL31 (10:21) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass deep right to M.Floyd for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2-11-SD33 (8:34) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short middle intended for A.Gates INTERCEPTED by B.Scott at SD 46. B.Scott to SD 22 for 24 yards (K.McCardell).

2-5-SD43 (4:26) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short middle to E.Parker to BLT 46 for 11 yards (E.Reed).

1-10-BAL46 (4:01) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short right to A.Gates to BLT 41 for 5 yards (R.Lewis).

2-5-BAL41 (3:21) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short left to V.Jackson to BLT 35 for 6 yards (T.Suggs).

1-10-BAL24 (1:20) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short right to B.Manumaleuna to BLT 19 for 5 yards (A.Thomas, E.Reed).

3-2-BAL16 (15:00) P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to A.Gates.

2nd Quarter

2-7-SD8 (10:19) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short right to E.Parker to SD 16 for 8 yards (D.Landry).

3-9-BAL36 (2:00) P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to L.Tomlinson.

1-10-SD33 38) P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to A.Gates.

3rd Quarter

3-3-SD10 (4:04) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short right to L.Neal to SD 28 for 18 yards.

4th Quarter

2-8-SD22 (11:52) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass incomplete deep middle to V.Jackson (S.Rolle).

3-8-SD22 (11:42) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass short right to A.Gates to SD 27 for 5 yards (A.Thomas, D.Landry).

3-19-BAL34 (7:32) (No Huddle) P.Rivers pass incomplete deep middle to V.Jackson.

1-10-SD24 29) P.Rivers pass to E.Parker to SD 33 for 9 yards (S.Rolle).

2-1-SD33 18) P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to M.Floyd (E.Reed).

3-1-SD33 13) P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to A.Gates.

4-1-SD33 08) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass to A.Gates ran ob at BLT 49 for 18 yards.

 

[cstu]

We are playing SD this week, and not the 85 Bears, right ??????

What's funny about BGP's tangent (which I'm sure he purports to relate to the game/thread at hand and not just a swipe at Pittsburgh) is that it completely ignores some other telling stats :The Chargers are dead last in passing attempts this year. They're starting a QB with 3 career starts. The Steelers defense is #2 in the NFL against the run, and has allowed 3.2 ypc. They have effectively shut down Tomlinson in previous meetings. So, the exact doomsday scenario he paints for Pittsburgh is equally likely to occur in the other direction istead (or as well.)Thus, one can expect a pretty tight, relatively low scoring game. Which means the line is right where it should be.

LT called the Steelers the best rush defense he had faced in his career last year. I've said it before but I'll say it again - the Chargers won't win if they are afraid to throw the ball. They aren't going to beat them on the ground and the Steelers are beatable through the air. If the Chargers aren't going to throw more than the 18 times they did against the Ravens prior to the 4th quarter desperation time then they might as well not show up.

 

[apalmer]

Oh, while we're at it, I seem to remember a Cowher team in the 2002 wild-card playoffs come from down 17 in the second half to win the game against another playoff team. I wish I could remember who they were playing.......

Come on, EG, you know that's not fair--they weren't playing against a real NFL team that day. Wins against D-II teams don't count.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Don't kid yourself, Sherriff. The Chargers are a quality team and beating them at home is not going to be easy.I think the Chargers -3 1/2 is pretty much on the money.

I'm not saying that this game is going to be easy, Burning Sensation is, but don't tell me the Chargers are that much better than the Steelers after beating up on 2 step children then losing to the 27th ranked offense. The Steelers passing game could not have played any worse in those 2 losses, and they should be 2-1 IMO. The only thing I'm disputing in this game the notion that Burning Sensation thinks SD win walking away....as I said earlier in this thread, this is going to be a good game.

Yep, and i am sure after i am right Sunday night i will just be considered "lucky", and that you guys who thought it would be a close game will still be right, but will claim the Steelers just caught some bad breaks or some other excuse.

If the Steelers lose a game, I have no problem saying it, but if they hand one away I will come right out and say it as well. I don’t get the reasoning why you think the Chargers are the best thing since sliced white bread, and so much better then the Steelers that they probably shouldn’t even show up. Care to explain ? You don't watch much football, huh ?

Good teams dont "hand games away", thats what made the Steelers as good as they were last year. The reason i like the Chargers so much over the Steelers is BECAUSE i watch the games.It seems alot of you are basing your reasoning for liking the Steelers on the fact that they are the "Steelers", and last years Superbowl winners, that they HAVE to make the playoffs this year. Making Sundays game a "must win". What is it about the way the Steelers have played this year makes you think they can go into SanDiego and win? Of course other than the argument about how well they played against the Bengals before giving the game away, which makes little sense, especially for the Steelers.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

We are playing SD this week, and not the 85 Bears, right ??????

What's funny about BGP's tangent (which I'm sure he purports to relate to the game/thread at hand and not just a swipe at Pittsburgh) is that it completely ignores some other telling stats :The Chargers are dead last in passing attempts this year. They're starting a QB with 3 career starts. The Steelers defense is #2 in the NFL against the run, and has allowed 3.2 ypc. They have effectively shut down Tomlinson in previous meetings. So, the exact doomsday scenario he paints for Pittsburgh is equally likely to occur in the other direction istead (or as well.)Thus, one can expect a pretty tight, relatively low scoring game. Which means the line is right where it should be.

LT called the Steelers the best rush defense he had faced in his career last year. I've said it before but I'll say it again - the Chargers won't win if they are afraid to throw the ball. They aren't going to beat them on the ground and the Steelers are beatable through the air. If the Chargers aren't going to throw more than the 18 times they did against the Ravens prior to the 4th quarter desperation time then they might as well not show up.

They're going to need to chuck it early and often if they want to get to that pivotal early lead. Rivers has yet to prove he can do this, same as Roethlisberger early in his first season. Ben was up to the task, it remains to be seen if Rivers is. Maybe so, maybe not, but he'll certainly be out of his "comfort zone" even moreso that Roethlisberger, making BGP's flimsy assessment invalid.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Oh, while we're at it, I seem to remember a Cowher team in the 2002 wild-card playoffs come from down 17 in the second half to win the game against another playoff team. I wish I could remember who they were playing.......

Come on, EG, you know that's not fair--they weren't playing against a real NFL team that day. Wins against D-II teams don't count.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Don't kid yourself, Sherriff. The Chargers are a quality team and beating them at home is not going to be easy.

I think the Chargers -3 1/2 is pretty much on the money.

I'm not saying that this game is going to be easy, Burning Sensation is, but don't tell me the Chargers are that much better than the Steelers after beating up on 2 step children then losing to the 27th ranked offense. The Steelers passing game could not have played any worse in those 2 losses, and they should be 2-1 IMO. The only thing I'm disputing in this game the notion that Burning Sensation thinks SD win walking away....as I said earlier in this thread, this is going to be a good game.

Yep, and i am sure after i am right Sunday night i will just be considered "lucky", and that you guys who thought it would be a close game will still be right, but will claim the Steelers just caught some bad breaks or some other excuse.

If the Steelers lose a game, I have no problem saying it, but if they hand one away I will come right out and say it as well. I don’t get the reasoning why you think the Chargers are the best thing since sliced white bread, and so much better then the Steelers that they probably shouldn’t even show up. Care to explain ? You don't watch much football, huh ?

Good teams dont "hand games away", thats what made the Steelers as good as they were last year. The reason i like the Chargers so much over the Steelers is BECAUSE i watch the games.It seems alot of you are basing your reasoning for liking the Steelers on the fact that they are the "Steelers", and last years Superbowl winners, that they HAVE to make the playoffs this year. Making Sundays game a "must win". What is it about the way the Steelers have played this year makes you think they can go into SanDiego and win? Of course other than the argument about how well they played against the Bengals before giving the game away, which makes little sense, especially for the Steelers.

The bolded part is exactly right. And they didn't hand it away vs. Jacksonville, they just played a great defense with an outstanding scheme that execcuted to perfection. No shame there, the Jags were just the better team that night, and I believe any Steelers fan will admit it. However, last week's game was eminently winnable. In fact, I still believe they were the better team overall and should have won the game, and I think most Steelers fans will agree again. They shot themselves in the foot with stupid mistakes, and deserved to lose as a result. Great teams don't do that.The difference of opinion here is that you're saying "That was last year, this is this year. The Steelers haven't shown me anything, and they're not a great team just because they were great last year." Those who oppose your viewpoint are of the mindset that there was very little roster turnover during the offseason, the Steelers ARE still a great team, and that the loss last week was not necessarily a harbinger of things to come, but rather an anomaly based on some uncharacteristic mental errors and a rusty Roethlisberger playing a poor game. They believe this trend is unlikely to continue, while you seem sure that it will.

This difference of opinion is why the line favors the Chargers only on home field advantage and why it will not jump to at least 5 as you claim. In fact, one of my two books already has it down to 3, while the other is still at 3 1/2 (but offering odds trending lower, indicating money bet already weighted to Pittsburgh.)

Remember, a book sets the line not on what they think the outcome will be, but where they think betting will be equal on both sides. Pittsburgh has a huge, rabid, national fan base and the added attraction of being the defending champs. Right or wrong, that means money is going to flow more heavily in that direction. So, saying the oddsmakers got it wrong is inaccurate. Rather, you should say that foolish bettors will pile money on Pittsburgh when it's obvious that San Diego is a much better team. Of course, whether or not that proves to be true remains to be seen.

 

[Warpig]

I dont think i have ever seen a line so far off. I was sure the spread in that game was going to be in the 7 - 8 range. I was shocked to see it at - 3 1/2 last night, no way this spread is not at least 5 by Sunday. Does anyone really think Pittsburgh can even make a game off this?(Other than Steeler homers)Yes, i unloaded my yearly winnings on the Chargers this morning as soon as the game went up on my site.

Are you serious? Hell yes I think Pitt has a great chance of winning. I picked them in my office pool.I just don't see Pittsburgh losing 3 in a row. Cowher will have them PISSED OFF and ready to go. They've had 2 weeks to prepare and they will be going against what is essentially a rookie qb.Granted, Rivers has looked solid against teams like TEN and OAK but subpar against BAL. I guarantee you that Steelers Defense will have him rattled and scared.p.s.I'm not a Steelers homer or a fan.

 

[Sheriff66]

Don't kid yourself, Sherriff. The Chargers are a quality team and beating them at home is not going to be easy.

I think the Chargers -3 1/2 is pretty much on the money.

I'm not saying that this game is going to be easy, Burning Sensation is, but don't tell me the Chargers are that much better than the Steelers after beating up on 2 step children then losing to the 27th ranked offense. The Steelers passing game could not have played any worse in those 2 losses, and they should be 2-1 IMO. The only thing I'm disputing in this game the notion that Burning Sensation thinks SD win walking away....as I said earlier in this thread, this is going to be a good game.

Yep, and i am sure after i am right Sunday night i will just be considered "lucky", and that you guys who thought it would be a close game will still be right, but will claim the Steelers just caught some bad breaks or some other excuse.

If the Steelers lose a game, I have no problem saying it, but if they hand one away I will come right out and say it as well. I don’t get the reasoning why you think the Chargers are the best thing since sliced white bread, and so much better then the Steelers that they probably shouldn’t even show up. Care to explain ? You don't watch much football, huh ?

Good teams dont "hand games away", thats what made the Steelers as good as they were last year. The reason i like the Chargers so much over the Steelers is BECAUSE i watch the games.It seems alot of you are basing your reasoning for liking the Steelers on the fact that they are the "Steelers", and last years Superbowl winners, that they HAVE to make the playoffs this year. Making Sundays game a "must win". What is it about the way the Steelers have played this year makes you think they can go into SanDiego and win? Of course other than the argument about how well they played against the Bengals before giving the game away, which makes little sense, especially for the Steelers.

Sometimes they do, only 1 undefeated team in NFL history, I'm not going to write the Steelers off because of 2 straight loses, one of them they gave away. So if the Steelers win, and your SB champion Chargers go on a 2 game skid, they are out of the playoff picture as well ?????

 

[Burning Sensation]

Don't kid yourself, Sherriff. The Chargers are a quality team and beating them at home is not going to be easy.

I think the Chargers -3 1/2 is pretty much on the money.

I'm not saying that this game is going to be easy, Burning Sensation is, but don't tell me the Chargers are that much better than the Steelers after beating up on 2 step children then losing to the 27th ranked offense. The Steelers passing game could not have played any worse in those 2 losses, and they should be 2-1 IMO. The only thing I'm disputing in this game the notion that Burning Sensation thinks SD win walking away....as I said earlier in this thread, this is going to be a good game.

Yep, and i am sure after i am right Sunday night i will just be considered "lucky", and that you guys who thought it would be a close game will still be right, but will claim the Steelers just caught some bad breaks or some other excuse.

If the Steelers lose a game, I have no problem saying it, but if they hand one away I will come right out and say it as well. I don’t get the reasoning why you think the Chargers are the best thing since sliced white bread, and so much better then the Steelers that they probably shouldn’t even show up. Care to explain ? You don't watch much football, huh ?

Good teams dont "hand games away", thats what made the Steelers as good as they were last year. The reason i like the Chargers so much over the Steelers is BECAUSE i watch the games.It seems alot of you are basing your reasoning for liking the Steelers on the fact that they are the "Steelers", and last years Superbowl winners, that they HAVE to make the playoffs this year. Making Sundays game a "must win". What is it about the way the Steelers have played this year makes you think they can go into SanDiego and win? Of course other than the argument about how well they played against the Bengals before giving the game away, which makes little sense, especially for the Steelers.

The bolded part is exactly right. And they didn't hand it away vs. Jacksonville, they just played a great defense with an outstanding scheme that execcuted to perfection. No shame there, the Jags were just the better team that night, and I believe any Steelers fan will admit it. However, last week's game was eminently winnable. In fact, I still believe they were the better team overall and should have won the game, and I think most Steelers fans will agree again. They shot themselves in the foot with stupid mistakes, and deserved to lose as a result. Great teams don't do that.The difference of opinion here is that you're saying "That was last year, this is this year. The Steelers haven't shown me anything, and they're not a great team just because they were great last year." Those who oppose your viewpoint are of the mindset that there was very little roster turnover during the offseason, the Steelers ARE still a great team, and that the loss last week was not necessarily a harbinger of things to come, but rather an anomaly based on some uncharacteristic mental errors and a rusty Roethlisberger playing a poor game. They believe this trend is unlikely to continue, while you seem sure that it will.

This difference of opinion is why the line favors the Chargers only on home field advantage and why it will not jump to at least 5 as you claim. In fact, one of my two books already has it down to 3, while the other is still at 3 1/2 (but offering odds trending lower, indicating money bet already weighted to Pittsburgh.)

Remember, a book sets the line not on what they think the outcome will be, but where they think betting will be equal on both sides. Pittsburgh has a huge, rabid, national fan base and the added attraction of being the defending champs. Right or wrong, that means money is going to flow more heavily in that direction. So, saying the oddsmakers got it wrong is inaccurate. Rather, you should say that foolish bettors will pile money on Pittsburgh when it's obvious that San Diego is a much better team. Of course, whether or not that proves to be true remains to be seen.

This is the exact kind of response i was looking for when i started the thread. I dont disagree with one thing you said here. Yes, i misspoke, i should have said the line is not close to reflecting what the actual outcome will be, and the oddsmakers probably know it.

Of course, whether or not that proves to be true remains to be seen.

Except by me apparently

 

[bryhamm]

BGP, I am curious ... how many times have the Steelers not needed to come from behind because they were winning? I don't know, but it seems easy to say that they don't do it, but maybe it's because they are never in that situation.

 

[jonessed]

BGP, I am curious ... how many times have the Steelers not needed to come from behind because they were winning? I don't know, but it seems easy to say that they don't do it, but maybe it's because they are never in that situation.

They are 1-2. How can they never be in a position where they need to come from behind?