Survivor leagues 2019 (1 Viewer)

[Futz]

which means this is fantastic week to pick somebody else.

I agree. It's such a gimme that it feels like a good time to go contrarian. Miami is a dumpster fire that is burning down the building next to it as well but if at some point they take it personally and throw together a decent game vs a team napping, it will wipe out 70% of your pool in a given week. It's the NFL after all.

 

[Zyphros]

Went Patriots in 1, Packers in the other.  I kind of like this picking 2 different teams strategy to keep myself a live and keep the freedom of choice later on.  Hopefully this still works and continues to keep me alive.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I agree. It's such a gimme that it feels like a good time to go contrarian. Miami is a dumpster fire that is burning down the building next to it as well but if at some point they take it personally and throw together a decent game vs a team napping, it will wipe out 70% of your pool in a given week. It's the NFL after all.

I can see Miami learning to play together and squeaking out a win or two ... later in the season. Right now they are way too dysfunctional to compete against anyone except maybe the Darnold-less Jets.

 

[Lehigh98]

Was looking at NE/NYJ, DAL/MIA, MIN/OAK, GB/DEN ( I don't trust SF or Jameis yet) Probably should have looked at BUF too now that I think of it.

I wanted to stay away from the two favorites for the +EV in slim chance either chokes and takes out a chunk of the pool.

I haven't see a full GB or DEN game and just wasn't comfortable making a call there.

I was thinking MIN/OAK but checking out chatter on both sides it seems like a lot of the talk in the locker room in MIN is negative and in OAK is positive.

Thought if I fade the favorite every week, then why bother saving teams, may as well use one.

So I'm on the Pats since pools showing over half the crowd on Dallas (58.2%) and much less on NE (13.7%).

Go Pats and Dolphins!

 

[shady inc]

Taking Dallas for a nice stress free week

 

[jbird]

Following the trends. Taking Dallas and New England in the big pools, and Seattle for charity.  Was considering Dallas across the board but I vowed after week 3 last year not to take the same team in multiple pools in any given week this year.  This homer didn't expect Josh Allen to win his second NFL start at Minnesota with the Vikes -16.5.

Dallas is 9-1 overall and 9-1 at home and Miami is 1-14, 0-7 away

New England:
17-0 at home including playoffs
26-4, 3-0 at home in September
49-3, 14-0 at home vs AFC
QB making their 1st start  vs Belickick and Brady are 5-46, 0-13
QBs under age 25 are 0-27 in NE vs both Brady and Belichek
vs NY Jets are 14-2, 9-1, 6-0 overall and 6-0 in NE

New York Jets are 1-11, 0-5 overall and 2-11, 1-6 away

Seattle has never lost at home in September under Pete Carol (15-0) and Russell Wilson is 50-12, 7-2, 6-0 at home including playoffs

New Orleans HC Sean Payton has not won a game w/o Brees starting at QB; 0-3 (2009, 2015, 2018)

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Pats are tempting, but betting against Miami again.

 

[huthut]

In a single elimination and double elimination survivor leagues, no losses yet. Going with Dallas in the double, since some people already have a loss, so I can go with the flow and don't need to differentiate now. Going with Green Bay in my single survivor league with 200 people. 99% have Dallas, so I will try and "win" now, rather than play it safe and need to try and win against 200 people later. 

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Going with Dallas. Saving NE for later. They have a lot more future value than Dallas.

Mia is only +3.5 in week 6 hosting Washington. NE is -14 hosting NYG.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Dallas is up to 70.79% on Yahoo

This is why I prefer the format of the only survivor pool I still play in.

No limitation on picking a given team, but the top "x" Vegas favorites are restricted and can't be used that week ... top 2 weeks 1-2, top 3 weeks 3-4, and so on. So no picks allowed on NE or DAL tomorrow, meaning the picks will be far more spread out. By the time the pool gets into December you're basically picking coin flips.

It's a less strategic format (since you don't have to give any thought to future weeks) but for me that's a feature, not a bug.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

This is why I prefer the format of the only survivor pool I still play in.

No limitation on picking a given team, but the top "x" Vegas favorites are restricted and can't be used that week ... top 2 weeks 1-2, top 3 weeks 3-4, and so on. So no picks allowed on NE or DAL tomorrow, meaning the picks will be far more spread out. By the time the pool gets into December you're basically picking coin flips.

It's a less strategic format (since you don't have to give any thought to future weeks) but for me that's a feature, not a bug.

Why would you want to make things harder in a survivor league? I find it hard to believe the pool lasts until December too often in that format.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Why would you want to make things harder in a survivor league? I find it hard to believe the pool lasts until December too often in that format.

Roughly 10k entries - so it always goes into December and has gone the distance a couple of times.

I like it because it doesn't make things harder. Long-term thinking and strategy are great, but I've got my season-long leagues for that.

 

[jbird]

Following the trends. Taking Dallas and New England in the big pools, and Seattle for charity.

For the record I changed my charity pick to Dallas against my better judgement regarding taking the same team in multiple pools.  

Teams favored by 21+ are 35-0 since 1966.

 

[LOCO]

so keep betting dolphins.  

charges this week.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

so keep betting dolphins.  

chargers this week.

I've never seen a 16 point road favorite with a losing record.  But I agree.

 

[pinequick]

I've never seen a 16 point road favorite with a losing record.  But I agree.

Isn't this how half your pool gets eliminated in one week?  No one will *ever* see the Dolphins winning a game... until they do.

 

[shady inc]

Chargers ruled half their starters our for this game.  Think I'm leaning Indy but still TBD

 

[jbird]

Continuing with the trends. Taking Rams and Ravens in the big pools, and Colts for charity. 

Rams are 8-1, 3-0 overall and 9-1, 2-0 at home.

Bucs are 3-16, 2-10, 1-7, 1-0 away and 1-12, 1-0 away when Winston starts

Ravens are 21-2, 2-0 at home in September

Browns are 3-27, 3-2, 1-2, 1-0 away

Ravens are 6-1, 1-0 overall vs Browns and 6-1, 3-0 in Baltimore

Colts are 12-3, 7-2, 2-0 overall and 7-0 at home

Raiders are 1-11, 0-4 away

 

[kittenmittens]

Chargers ruled half their starters our for this game.  Think I'm leaning Indy but still TBD

They did? 

I think they are probably still a really safe play relatively speaking. Everyone will be on them, though. 

What if that week 1 Oakland team shows up in Indy? 

 

[kittenmittens]

Isn't this how half your pool gets eliminated in one week?  No one will *ever* see the Dolphins winning a game... until they do.

I agree that if they win it crushes your whole pool.. Will they win one though? 

This team looks a lot worse than the the last few 0-16 teams.  Rosen could chuck it to Williams enough to get lucky in a game or two I guess. 

 

[xenon]

going BALT with one pick and DEN for the other. 

Crazy for taking DEN @ home vs JAX?  Haven't watched any DEN football but is their D any good this year?  

 

[LOCO]

Since 2012 Denver is 19-5 SU in sept at home.  Add a rookie qb vs a good d coach.  Plus a bronco team hungry for a win. 

Brocnos is the pick 

 

[Steeler]

I'm going with the Rams.

This week is one of the weeks to fade the MIA opponent.  LAC traveling cross country, 1AM game, chargers are banged up.  MIA beat CHI last year at home so anything is possible in the FL heat.  Plus, if MIA wins they will take down a lot of people from the pool.

 

[Zyphros]

I'm not touching the Chargers this week.  I don't like a lot of the matchups as clear winners, so I'm just going to pick one of the best teams in the league and hope for the best.  Chiefs in 1, Falcons in the other just to hedge both.  I do think both win, but both are going to be closer than I think most people think.  

 

[pinequick]

I'm going with the Rams.

This week is one of the weeks to fade the MIA opponent.  LAC traveling cross country, 1AM game, chargers are banged up.  MIA beat CHI last year at home so anything is possible in the FL heat.  Plus, if MIA wins they will take down a lot of people from the pool.

I did, too. :(

 

[Steeler]

I did, too. :(

 

[Zyphros]

I'm not touching the Chargers this week.  I don't like a lot of the matchups as clear winners, so I'm just going to pick one of the best teams in the league and hope for the best.  Chiefs in 1, Falcons in the other just to hedge both.  I do think both win, but both are going to be closer than I think most people think.  

Barely squeaked out a win with the Chiefs.  Officially out in the one I went Falcons.  

 

[Lehigh98]

Moving on with the Chargers.  Didn't trust Goff to keep playing well and Jameis to keep sucking.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Well the easy part of the road is over. Miami (losers by 20 to 49  the first four games), has the week off. 

Jets have not been quite as bad, but @ Philly looks like the play for me this week.

 

[C-Bound]

Lost one with Rams last week as well.  Eagles it is this week.

 

[huthut]

Well the easy part of the road is over. Miami (losers by 20 to 49  the first four games), has the week off. 

Jets have not been quite as bad, but @ Philly looks like the play for me this week.

This is where I am leaning too. So far alive with SEA -> BAL - > DAL - > LAC, hoping having the Eagles available this week pays off vs the people that chose them week 1. They play Miami in week 13, but don't see the need to save them that long. 

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

This is where I am leaning too. So far alive with SEA -> BAL - > DAL - > LAC, hoping having the Eagles available this week pays off vs the people that chose them week 1. They play Miami in week 13, but don't see the need to save them that long. 

I've taken the same road as you to get here, and also taking the Eagles this week. Slightly nervous about it, but I want to save NE for week 6, and KC for a bit later.

 

[Deamon]

Pretty boring/chalk week.  Would be shocked if anyone didn't take Philly.  I want to pick someone different but there's just no other attractive options whatsoever.

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

For those with mulitple picks to make, anyone considering CHI? Know London games aren't the best to choose, but thinking defense travels better than offense and hard to see what the Raiders will muster against them.

 

[Lehigh98]

Took PHI in week one and have used HOU, NE and LAC so going with KC this week.

 

[modogg]

For those with mulitple picks to make, anyone considering CHI? Know London games aren't the best to choose, but thinking defense travels better than offense and hard to see what the Raiders will muster against them.

Raiders can be sneaky (didn't see them beating Indy last week). Trusting Chase Daniel is a little scary. I already used Philly in week 1 with my 2 i have left, was thinking of Houston.

Hate betting against 0-4 teams but Chargers are a possible choice too. 

 

[kittenmittens]

Pretty boring/chalk week.  Would be shocked if anyone didn't take Philly.  I want to pick someone different but there's just no other attractive options whatsoever.

New England

 

[Deamon]

New England

Lots used them week 2

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Lots used them week 2

Lots took Philly already, too.

So there are several good options this week. It just depends who you have available...

 

[Deamon]

Lots took Philly already, too.

So there are several good options this week. It just depends who you have available...

They did?  What week?  Would have had to be week 1 and there were lots of better options. 

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

They did?  What week?  Would have had to be week 1 and there were lots of better options. 

Yeah. ~21% of folks have already used Philly in week 1.

 

[Deamon]

Yeah. ~21% of folks have already used Philly in week 1.

Odd. Nowhere close to 20 used them in my league.  

 

[Zyphros]

Took PHI in week one and have used HOU, NE and LAC so going with KC this week.

I took the Eagles week 1 as well.  I am going New England though this week as I haven't used them yet.  

Those are 2 of the top 3 picks this week on Yahoo.  PHI, KC, NE in that order.  Chicago coming in 4th which I don't understand at all since Oakland isn't that bad of a team.  Just bad defensively and it's not like the Bears are great offensively.  

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Pointspread wise the 3 double digit favorites are NE, PHI, and KC. All other games are under a TD.

 

[massraider]

I have three picks alive in my big pool of 9000 entries.

I really hope the Bears usage stays low, and people jump on Philly.  Philly has 4 games left I would use them, and I believe they will be stringing together better performances by then.  The only other time I like the Bears is at home week 12 vs NYG,  when CLE has MIA at home.

Right now, Raiders have no Gabe Jackson, and Tyrell Williams isn't practicing.  Raiders are on their 3rd road game, and their London performances have been brutal.  Think they scored 10 in last two games there.  

Raiders game plan is to establish the run, and avoid Carr in 3rd and long.  Seems like good formula vs. Bears? 

Chase Daniel might be a short term upgrade, he looked fine to me, and the short passing game kills OAK.  

Indy was incredibly short-handed last week, Raiders jumped out to huge lead, then almost gave it away to team without it's QB, top WR, and top defender.  

 

[4th&inches]

I have three picks alive in my big pool of 9000 entries.

I really hope the Bears usage stays low, and people jump on Philly.  Philly has 4 games left I would use them, and I believe they will be stringing together better performances by then.  The only other time I like the Bears is at home week 12 vs NYG,  when CLE has MIA at home.

Right now, Raiders have no Gabe Jackson, and Tyrell Williams isn't practicing.  Raiders are on their 3rd road game, and their London performances have been brutal.  Think they scored 10 in last two games there.  

Raiders game plan is to establish the run, and avoid Carr in 3rd and long.  Seems like good formula vs. Bears? 

Chase Daniel might be a short term upgrade, he looked fine to me, and the short passing game kills OAK.  

Indy was incredibly short-handed last week, Raiders jumped out to huge lead, then almost gave it away to team without it's QB, top WR, and top defender.  

Love the detailed thought process here; I just worry that with 3 teams as double-digit favorites this week, by going with the Bears over them you're really tempting fate. 

While their Defense is elite, just look back to last season where Daniel had a cake matchup vs. NYG...

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

Love the detailed thought process here; I just worry that with 3 teams as double-digit favorites this week, by going with the Bears over them you're really tempting fate. 

While their Defense is elite, just look back to last season where Daniel had a cake matchup vs. NYG...

Couple of points to raise here:

- game vs NYG was a Giants home game and Giants played well second half of the season

- I am in a large pool like massraider and sometimes you have to take some risk in order to move on

Highlighted CHI as a choice earlier in the thread, so maybe just happy someone else sees them as an option

 

[modogg]

I have three picks alive in my big pool of 9000 entries.

I really hope the Bears usage stays low, and people jump on Philly.  Philly has 4 games left I would use them, and I believe they will be stringing together better performances by then.  The only other time I like the Bears is at home week 12 vs NYG,  when CLE has MIA at home.

Right now, Raiders have no Gabe Jackson, and Tyrell Williams isn't practicing.  Raiders are on their 3rd road game, and their London performances have been brutal.  Think they scored 10 in last two games there.  

Raiders game plan is to establish the run, and avoid Carr in 3rd and long.  Seems like good formula vs. Bears? 

Chase Daniel might be a short term upgrade, he looked fine to me, and the short passing game kills OAK.  

Indy was incredibly short-handed last week, Raiders jumped out to huge lead, then almost gave it away to team without it's QB, top WR, and top defender.  

good stuff. Minor concern that Chicago knew they had to win last week to stay in the hunt, and this could be a letdown. They definitely seem up and down. Also, little hesitant that the Bears didn't head to London until this evening. 

those are the only negative things i can think of for it. I trust Daniel more than i trust Trubinsky. Nagy coached him for a few years in KC, and everyone connected with him has liked him. 

 

[huthut]

I have most of the year planned out so far, though I can guarantee things will change based on injuries and team re-evaluations:

1. SEA
   
2. BAL
   
3. DAL
   
4. LAC
   
5. PHI vs NYJ -14
   
6. NE vs NYG -14.5
   
7. BUF vs MIA -13.5, alternate KC at DEN -8 to preserve BUF for week 9 vs WAS
   
8. PIT vs MIA - 13.5, alternates: MIN vs WAS -13 or LAR vs CIN -11.5
   
9. SF @ ARI? -6.5, tough one, no real favorable matchups, divisional away game is rough. BUF if KC in week 7
   
10. IND vs MIA -13.5
    
11. MIN vs DEN -9.5, alternate SF vs ARI -9 if I go with KC week 7, would probably go with MIN week 8 then
    
12. CLE vs MIA -14, might go with CHI vs NYG -8 since it would be the last time to use CHI somewhat comfortably
    
13. KC vs OAK -14, alternate CAR vs WAS -9, last time to use CAR, could essentially start an alternate pick cascade by going with KC week 7 instead
    
14. GB vs WAS -13.5
    
15. NYG vs MIA -10? Pretty scary playing NYG at this time, could go with BUF week 7 and CAR week 13 to hold KC vs DEN -13.5
    
16. Who knows, bunch of close matchups, will re-evaluate later
    
17. LAR vs ARI -13
    

Now that I have it all typed up, I bolded the direction I might take for weeks with multiple possible picks. Feels like week 9 is the sketchiest so far, if lots of people lose before that I might go with safer picks and worry about an ideal path to week 17 later. 

 

[massraider]

good stuff. Minor concern that Chicago knew they had to win last week to stay in the hunt, and this could be a letdown. They definitely seem up and down. Also, little hesitant that the Bears didn't head to London until this evening. 

those are the only negative things i can think of for it. I trust Daniel more than i trust Trubinsky. Nagy coached him for a few years in KC, and everyone connected with him has liked him. 

I'm mystified that people are giving the Raiders this much respect.  

That Broncos win gets less impressive by the week, and this is their 3rd game on the road in a row, which is the rare kind of schedule anomaly you look for.  No one thinks they are better than the Bears, Tyrell Williams is probably not playing, and I am not sure I can tell you who their top two WRs will be this week.  Waller getting fed like Miami-era Jarvis Landry for the same reason:  No one else to throw to, and checkdown-prone QB.  

One trend in every game this year has been the Raiders ability to look solid early on, and fade  badly in the second half.  Outscored in 2nd half of every game.  Whether because of coaching, the young roster, or whatever the reason, I expect that trend to be magnified on the road for the 3rd straight game.