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2025 Survivor League Discussion (1 Viewer)

starks

starks

Footballguy
Seemed likely half the teams in Survivor got burned last year when the Pats took out Bengals week 1. How is everyone looking to strategy this year? Week 1 is heavy on Broncos at home vs Titan's, probably a good bet with a rookie QB coming in town. Skins at home vs Giants is looking ok but might want to save them for later. Thoughts?
 
Here are some early favorites. I personally like the Eagles. Phil is basically the same team from last year and Dallas is mediocre at best.

Washington Commanders vs. NY Giants
Denver Broncos vs. Tenn
Philadelphia vs. Dallas
Jacksonville vs. Carolina
@ TB Bucs vs. Atl
 
I've been in a survivor league for 20+ years and my buddy that runs it has been keeping stats. Even though I never won it (was in the final two one year) I have the most career correct picks at 99, one away from breaking 100. When I hit 99, I got knocked out the next week... in 2022. In 2023 and 2024 I got knocked out on the very first game. So almost three years since #99 I'm still looking for #100. :rolleyes:

I'll be at the Eagles game tomorrow, so I picked them, what the hell. 🦅
 
sajoch said:
Here are some early favorites. I personally like the Eagles. Phil is basically the same team from last year and Dallas is mediocre at best.

Washington Commanders vs. NY Giants
Denver Broncos vs. Tenn
Philadelphia vs. Dallas
Jacksonville vs. Carolina
@ TB Bucs vs. Atl
Click to expand...
'm also looking at Cardinals vs Saints, but I don't know if I totally trust Arizona at that level. I think Denver is probably the play here
 
I think its Philly or Denver. As someone who usually does well in these but was absolutely someone who took the Bengals week 1 last year, I find myself saying "screw saving teams for later" and wanting to go Philly, but I think Denver is pretty safe too. Probably won't choose until close to kickoff tonight.
 
travdogg said:
I think its Philly or Denver. As someone who usually does well in these but was absolutely someone who took the Bengals week 1 last year, I find myself saying "screw saving teams for later" and wanting to go Philly, but I think Denver is pretty safe too. Probably won't choose until close to kickoff tonight.
Click to expand...
those are safest options for sure and no reason to go out of bounds
 
travdogg said:
I think its Philly or Denver. As someone who usually does well in these but was absolutely someone who took the Bengals week 1 last year, I find myself saying "screw saving teams for later" and wanting to go Philly, but I think Denver is pretty safe too. Probably won't choose until close to kickoff tonight.
Click to expand...
Every year I end up going out because I tried to play it cute and take a less attractive favorite in order to "save" a safer option.

In this case, though, I think I actually prefer Denver's matchup to Philly's
 
I was one of the last two teams in my 10.8k pot last year, ended up splitting it with one other guy before week 12.

Going with Arizona this week at New Orleans. I can re-buy if knocked out in the first three weeks, so it changes the strategy a bit.
 
Lehigh98 said:
I've been in a survivor league for 20+ years and my buddy that runs it has been keeping stats. Even though I never won it (was in the final two one year) I have the most career correct picks at 99, one away from breaking 100. When I hit 99, I got knocked out the next week... in 2022. In 2023 and 2024 I got knocked out on the very first game. So almost three years since #99 I'm still looking for #100. :rolleyes:

I'll be at the Eagles game tomorrow, so I picked them, what the hell. 🦅
Click to expand...
congrats hitting 100
 
Chalk held up week one for the most popular picks of Philly and Denver. Biggest spread week two is on the Ravens -11.5 at home vs Browns.
 
What was the biggest upset this week?

EDT: Looking at all the spreads, there was only ONE upset this week and it was the 2 point spread the Patriots had and lost. Wonder if anyone took them in survivor.

Might be the only time I can remember every single survivor pick going through. My buddy is in a massive survivor league with like 2000 people in it and no one picked the Raiders so all 2000 went through.

Wild.
 
Baltimore Ravens (vs Cleveland Browns) -11.5 / -900
- Should be the majority pick, seems like a free pass

Arizona Cardinals (vs Carolina Panthers) -6.5 / -290
- Both Murray and Young are higher on my unpredictability list

Los Angeles Rams (at Tennessee Titans) -5.5 / -260
- Make be good to use Stafford while his back still works, Ten looked awful but against a great D and Cam high on unpredictability list

Dallas Cowboys (vs New York Giants) -5.5 / -250
- Dallas should have beat the champs last week, take advantage of predictable Russ before the Dart switch?
- Personal take but Cowboys always screw me when I pick them.

Minnesota Vikings (vs Atlanta Falcons) -4.5 / -200
- JJM and Penix both high on unpredictability list, did MIN figure things out in 2nd half or will they continue to play up and down?
 
Bills vs. Dolphins (-11.5)
Don't love taking the Thursday night game or division games, but Buffalo seems quite safe here

Packers at Browns (-7.5)
Road team, but other than that the Packers have looked good so no real red flags

Bucs vs. Jets (-6.5)
I kind of like this pick, although the line has moved in the Jets direction looks like

Seahawks vs. Saints (-7)
The Saints haven't looked as bad as advertised, but are they really a threat on the road?

Chiefs at Giants (-6)
I'm staying away from this one. Granted the Giants are bad, but do you really want to back an offense that can't seem to move the ball, on the road?
 
Dr_Zaius said:
Bills vs. Dolphins (-11.5)
Don't love taking the Thursday night game or division games, but Buffalo seems quite safe here

Packers at Browns (-7.5)
Road team, but other than that the Packers have looked good so no real red flags

Bucs vs. Jets (-6.5)
I kind of like this pick, although the line has moved in the Jets direction looks like

Seahawks vs. Saints (-7)
The Saints haven't looked as bad as advertised, but are they really a threat on the road?

Chiefs at Giants (-6)
I'm staying away from this one. Granted the Giants are bad, but do you really want to back an offense that can't seem to move the ball, on the road?
Click to expand...
Pretty much agree with all of this.

Bills seem like a safe pick, but I'm leaning elsewhere for two reasons. I typically stay away from divisional games if possible. For that reason, and the fact that BUF hosts NOS next week, I'm looking elsewhere.

Packers are playing great, but road games scare me, and Cleveland's defense is for real. Wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities to see a CLE upset, in my opinion. Not likely, but I've seen stranger things happen.

KC? No thanks. Not interested in any 0-2 team on the road, frankly. You can make a pretty strong argument that the Giants have come closer to winning a game than the Chiefs have. KC will need to show me something (and win a game or two) before they're even in consideration, regardless of the opponent.

Give me SEA and TB as my top two picks of the week.

Line isn't as large as some of the others, but I feel pretty comfortable with TB against the Jets and Tyrod Taylor. The only thing that gives me slight hesitation is that Tyrod has played really well in the past in these types of situations. He's a smart and experienced veteran who will keep the Bucs D honest with his legs. But, give me the Bucs, who have beaten two decent teams on the road so far this year. I don't see them letting up at home in Week 3.

Saints aren't as bad as expected. Meanwhile, SEA looked great on the road last week, which should energize their fans in a home game that they need to win to keep pace in their division. An energized stadium full of "12's" is not an easy task for any young QB, and I think Rattler gets rattled this week. The NFC West is a cumulative 7-1 through two weeks, and the Seahawks have that only loss. I think Seattle wins big in an effort to stay in the mix and not fall even further behind in a division where at least one team comes out of Week 3 undefeated.
 
Top five options, in my opinion....

LAR vs SF..... I typically don't like divisional games, and I don't even like TNF games (which seem to be somewhat unpredictable, even moreso than regular Sunday games). That said, the Niners are so decimated on offense in terms of skill position players. No Kittle, Jennings, or Pearsall. Most importantly, Purdy is out. They still have CMC, and MOST of the defense is intact, but I have a hard time seeing them beat a Rams team that is playing well (on the road at that). LAR win 26-13.

IND vs LVR ..... Seems like a no-brainer on paper. My only hesitation with this one (and it's more of a gut feeling than anything) is that it's only a matter of time before a couple of things happen. One, the Raiders are going to have a game where things just "click" and they win a game against a decent team. They almost pulled off the win last week against CHI, but came up just short (not sure if CHI is "decent" but they're respectable on both sides of the ball). Meanwhile, IND is due for a "dud" sooner or later. If either of those things happens (LVR plays well or IND comes out flat), we've got a ball game. If both happen, it could be a game that is ripe for the upset to happen. I think the Colts win but fail to cover. 27-24.

ARI vs TEN ..... Another easy pick on paper. The Titans are not good, and their scores through four games are getting progressively worse, not better. They were arguably in the DEN game to start the year, played the Rams relatively tough in Week 2, then got blown out by IND followed by a complete disaster/shutout against HOU last week. Meanwhile, I'm not sure ARI has looked "good" yet this season. They've beaten two bad teams (NOS and CAR), then lost to two decent teams (SF and SEA). All four were one-score games. I could see this being another close one, depending on which TEN team shows up. The one that played DEN and LAR close, or the one that didn't really show up against two divisional opponents in Weeks 3 and 4. I like ARI in a close one.... 23-19.

DET @ CIN..... Typically shy away from road games. But CIN has looked so bad the past couple of weeks, while DET has looked extremely solid. Can't imagine CIN winning this one, honestly. I guess it COULD happen. But, it would be a major shock. Moreso than any of the above games, in my opinion. DET is the strongest pick of the week, IMO. DET 38-10.

BUF vs NE - Another divisional game, which I'm not a fan of picking. BUF has been up and down defensively, but their offense has been solid. 30+ in all four games. NE has won both games in which THEY have scored 30, and lost the two when they struggled on offense. I see a win for BUF in this one, but not necessarily an easy win. 31-21 maybe.

In order of confidence, with all else being equal (not looking ahead at schedules, etc.), I like.... DET, LAR, BUF, IND, ARI.
 
The Grid has BUF, LAR, DET, ARI and IND. I already used DET and ARI, BUF is probably everyone's pick, so down to LAR and IND for me. I think I will go with IND and root against the Rams and the Bills.
 
I'm going Rams. Though, I've already used the Bills (Miami) and the Lions (Browns)

If I still had Detroit, they'd be my top choice this week.
 
Rams play NO in Week 9 and are currently double digit favorites. Saving them for then.

It's between DET, IND, and ARI for me. DET has the best odds of winning this week but they can be used late in the season vs. NYG in Week 12.

I'm in two pools. One is small enough that it probably wont go to week 12 so I'm taking DET now. The other, still mulling ARI vs IND.
 
I'm in a 2 strike pool.

I went ARZ, DAL, BUF, LAC, and am going DET this week.

3 players have been eliminated so far and half the remaining players have one strike.
 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
The Grid has BUF, LAR, DET, ARI and IND. I already used DET and ARI, BUF is probably everyone's pick, so down to LAR and IND for me. I think I will go with IND and root against the Rams and the Bills.
Click to expand...
82 out of 389 teams just went down with the Rams in my big money pool. It's very unlikely that NE makes it a game at Buffalo like Kyle did in LA, but I'm just sayin.... sorry Rams backers. Karty needs to go join Moody in the unemployment line.
 
Didn't see that coming, but in hindsight, not surprising. Very impressed with Mac Jones. Bourne as well. Last night is a good reminder of just how well-coached the Niners are. Countless injuries, and it's just "next man up" mentality. They've been sort of flying under the radar for the first month of the season, but are clearly a major contender in not only the NFC West, but the NFC.
 
Brutal week. Three of the top five favorites went down. Just an all-around crazy week. In my local pick'em contest (just picking winners, not ATS), I have 6 correct out of 13 so far. Normally, I would think that's bad, but this week, I'm in solo 3rd place out of 12 (and still leading overall by a thread). :unsure:
 
Rough eliminator week. Down to 6 teams (5 if OZ made a pick & doesn't avoid the L tonight)

7 out thanks to ARZ
1 out (draco26... Golden Gopher?) with LA


Week 6 making my early bird selection of ANOTHER away game PHI over NYG. Should I switch to picking a home team, like the Steelers at home after the bye vs CLE. Biggest concern is PIT OL vs that stellar Brown's D. If Rodgers gets knocked out, I'll be changing my drawers.
 
H8fulHuck said:
Rough eliminator week. Down to 6 teams (5 if OZ made a pick & doesn't avoid the L tonight)

7 out thanks to ARZ
1 out (draco26... Golden Gopher?) with LA


Week 6 making my early bird selection of ANOTHER away game PHI over NYG. Should I switch to picking a home team, like the Steelers at home after the bye vs CLE. Biggest concern is PIT OL vs that stellar Brown's D. If Rodgers gets knocked out, I'll be changing my drawers.
Click to expand...
In my biggest contest, I lost one of my two entries with the Rams. The other, I had DET, so I'm safe there.

I'm in about four other single-entry contests, all of which I took IND.... EXCEPT one where I completely forgot to make a pick. Call it forgetting to click "Submit" or too many leagues/contests. Not sure which is the case. But, regardless, I'm now in a position where I need to pick either KC or JAC tonight to advance to Week 6. Ugh.

My brain says KC, but my gut is leaning towards JAC. KC has simply not been impressive this year, and last week's win against BAL is looking even less impressive now. Meanwhile, I haven't seen much of JAC, and they're sort of flying under the radar, it seems. I know Lawrence has been less than impressive fantasy-wise, but they're winning games. At home, I like their chances against KC. But, maybe I'm overthinking it.

Anybody want to sell me on which team will win the game tonight?
:lol:
 
Golden Gopher said:
H8fulHuck said:
Rough eliminator week. Down to 6 teams (5 if OZ made a pick & doesn't avoid the L tonight)

7 out thanks to ARZ
1 out (draco26... Golden Gopher?) with LA


Week 6 making my early bird selection of ANOTHER away game PHI over NYG. Should I switch to picking a home team, like the Steelers at home after the bye vs CLE. Biggest concern is PIT OL vs that stellar Brown's D. If Rodgers gets knocked out, I'll be changing my drawers.
Click to expand...
In my biggest contest, I lost one of my two entries with the Rams. The other, I had DET, so I'm safe there.

I'm in about four other single-entry contests, all of which I took IND.... EXCEPT one where I completely forgot to make a pick. Call it forgetting to click "Submit" or too many leagues/contests. Not sure which is the case. But, regardless, I'm now in a position where I need to pick either KC or JAC tonight to advance to Week 6. Ugh.

My brain says KC, but my gut is leaning towards JAC. KC has simply not been impressive this year, and last week's win against BAL is looking even less impressive now. Meanwhile, I haven't seen much of JAC, and they're sort of flying under the radar, it seems. I know Lawrence has been less than impressive fantasy-wise, but they're winning games. At home, I like their chances against KC. But, maybe I'm overthinking it.

Anybody want to sell me on which team will win the game tonight?
:lol:
Click to expand...
My answer changed now that the game is over. Good thing I didn’t recommend KC before the game. Hopefully you went with your gut.
 
I was very happy to pick GB this week. But now with the Flacco news... it's not that I think he's great, but this is just the kind of stupid, rejuvenate-the-team kind of NFL crap that comes along and turns a -1600 bet into a loser.

But we're still rolling with GB, right?
 
zed2283 said:
I was very happy to pick GB this week. But now with the Flacco news... it's not that I think he's great, but this is just the kind of stupid, rejuvenate-the-team kind of NFL crap that comes along and turns a -1600 bet into a loser.

But we're still rolling with GB, right?
Click to expand...
If I'm looking at Week 6 in a vacuum, then absolutely. GB didn't lose because they faced Flacco a couple of weeks ago. They lost because the CLE defense is really good. Which is the exact opposite of how I would describe the CIN defense.

If you're looking ahead, I think there ARE different routes you can take, but I always "proceed with caution" when looking ahead in survivor pools. That said, I think the following are certainly options....

PHI @ NYG - I shy away from road games as well as divisional games. This fits both, which would have me leaning elsewhere if possible.

DEN @ NYJ - I've already used DEN (Week 1). Even if I had them at my disposal, I'm still taking GB over them. Road game, Jets feel "due" for a surprise win, and Fields' ability to run is a wild card.

PIT vs CLE - Divisional game that could be a low-scoring defensive slugfest. Might be better off saving the Steelers for Week 11 when THEY face CIN.

IND vs ARI - Would probably be my second choice if I hadn't already used them. ARI is not very good. That said, IND still has a couple of other good home matchups upcoming (TEN in Week 8, ATL in Week 10).

LAR @ BAL - Never would have thought this game would be in the survivor conversation coming into the season. BAL was atrocious last week. If Lamar is once again OUT, I can't imagine this week being much better. But, it's still a road game. Rams have a nice home matchup in Week 9 vs NOS.

There are others (LAC @ MIA, DAL @ CAR, LVR vs TEN), but none that I would trust enough to pull the trigger on them to win.
 
Golden Gopher said:
zed2283 said:
I was very happy to pick GB this week. But now with the Flacco news... it's not that I think he's great, but this is just the kind of stupid, rejuvenate-the-team kind of NFL crap that comes along and turns a -1600 bet into a loser.

But we're still rolling with GB, right?
Click to expand...
If I'm looking at Week 6 in a vacuum, then absolutely. GB didn't lose because they faced Flacco a couple of weeks ago. They lost because the CLE defense is really good. Which is the exact opposite of how I would describe the CIN defense.

If you're looking ahead, I think there ARE different routes you can take, but I always "proceed with caution" when looking ahead in survivor pools. That said, I think the following are certainly options....

PHI @ NYG - I shy away from road games as well as divisional games. This fits both, which would have me leaning elsewhere if possible.

DEN @ NYJ - I've already used DEN (Week 1). Even if I had them at my disposal, I'm still taking GB over them. Road game, Jets feel "due" for a surprise win, and Fields' ability to run is a wild card.

PIT vs CLE - Divisional game that could be a low-scoring defensive slugfest. Might be better off saving the Steelers for Week 11 when THEY face CIN.

IND vs ARI - Would probably be my second choice if I hadn't already used them. ARI is not very good. That said, IND still has a couple of other good home matchups upcoming (TEN in Week 8, ATL in Week 10).

LAR @ BAL - Never would have thought this game would be in the survivor conversation coming into the season. BAL was atrocious last week. If Lamar is once again OUT, I can't imagine this week being much better. But, it's still a road game. Rams have a nice home matchup in Week 9 vs NOS.

There are others (LAC @ MIA, DAL @ CAR, LVR vs TEN), but none that I would trust enough to pull the trigger on them to win.
Click to expand...

I'm in the same boat. Used DEN and IND already, and I agree with your assessments (and look aheads) of all the games. Which is why I'm still sitting on GB, but I don't like it for some reason.
 
zed2283 said:
Golden Gopher said:
zed2283 said:
I was very happy to pick GB this week. But now with the Flacco news... it's not that I think he's great, but this is just the kind of stupid, rejuvenate-the-team kind of NFL crap that comes along and turns a -1600 bet into a loser.

But we're still rolling with GB, right?
Click to expand...
If I'm looking at Week 6 in a vacuum, then absolutely. GB didn't lose because they faced Flacco a couple of weeks ago. They lost because the CLE defense is really good. Which is the exact opposite of how I would describe the CIN defense.

If you're looking ahead, I think there ARE different routes you can take, but I always "proceed with caution" when looking ahead in survivor pools. That said, I think the following are certainly options....

PHI @ NYG - I shy away from road games as well as divisional games. This fits both, which would have me leaning elsewhere if possible.

DEN @ NYJ - I've already used DEN (Week 1). Even if I had them at my disposal, I'm still taking GB over them. Road game, Jets feel "due" for a surprise win, and Fields' ability to run is a wild card.

PIT vs CLE - Divisional game that could be a low-scoring defensive slugfest. Might be better off saving the Steelers for Week 11 when THEY face CIN.

IND vs ARI - Would probably be my second choice if I hadn't already used them. ARI is not very good. That said, IND still has a couple of other good home matchups upcoming (TEN in Week 8, ATL in Week 10).

LAR @ BAL - Never would have thought this game would be in the survivor conversation coming into the season. BAL was atrocious last week. If Lamar is once again OUT, I can't imagine this week being much better. But, it's still a road game. Rams have a nice home matchup in Week 9 vs NOS.

There are others (LAC @ MIA, DAL @ CAR, LVR vs TEN), but none that I would trust enough to pull the trigger on them to win.
Click to expand...

I'm in the same boat. Used DEN and IND already, and I agree with your assessments (and look aheads) of all the games. Which is why I'm still sitting on GB, but I don't like it for some reason.
Click to expand...
I get it. I think it's easy to have "ghosts of Flacco's past" in the back of your mind (or at least mine). That said, he hasn't been the same gunslinger that he was a couple of years ago. Statistically, nobody has been worse at the position except Browning, ironically. Time catches up with everyone eventually. That doesn't mean he won't be better than Browning. I just have a hard time seeing CIN winning this game. In Green Bay. Packers coming off a bye. Too many things would have to go wrong.

Of course, as a MIN fan, I'd love to see it happen. :lol: I just think the Packers win this one pretty easily. Pound Jacobs early. Add a couple of big plays mid-game (possibly including a defensive score), and then more running game late. Cincy adds a garbage score or two late to make it look close(r). GB 31-21.
 
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