Survivor Pools - Week 3 ... Early Discussion (1 Viewer)

[Raider Nation]

Some potential land mines in week 3. I see no slam dunks except San Diego and Pittsburgh.

Houston at New Orleans

NY Giants at Philadelphia

Jacksonville at Carolina

New England at Buffalo

Miami at Cleveland

San Francisco at Cincinnati

Denver at Tennessee

Detroit at Minnesota

Baltimore at St. Louis

NY Jets at Oakland

Kansas City at San Diego

Arizona at Seattle

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Green Bay at Chicago

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

Washington at Dallas

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Not a fan of picking teams involved in divisional games, but it's gonna be tough not to take San Diego if you haven't already. I also expect Baltimore to bounce back next week so taking them over St. Louis is also a possibility.

 

[Raider Nation]

Not a fan of picking teams involved in divisional games, but it's gonna be tough not to take San Diego if you haven't already. I also expect Baltimore to bounce back next week so taking them over St. Louis is also a possibility.

If you are one of those people who avoid 1) taking road teams and 2) taking a team against a division opponent, this will be a VERY difficult week. Because other than San Diego (division foe) and Pittsburgh (road game at night), the other possibility that stands out is Philly -- another divisional game.You have more guts than me if you do take Baltimore. I have never seen a team look so one week after looking so dominant.

 

[FavreCo]

Not passing on SD week 3 even though its a division game. They can't be trusted but KC is awful and they waxe them 31-0 last year at home.

I'm going with slam dunks too. Took PIT this week. Easy pick.

 

[Raider Nation]

Not passing on SD week 3 even though its a division game. They can't be trusted but KC is awful and they waxe them 31-0 last year at home.

That looks to be the play. I also like the fact that they are coming off a loss.(I can forgive a loss to the Patriots. Baltimore's loss to Tennessee was U-G-L-Y)

 

[Black&Gold]

Carolina looks like a possiblility. They have played tough against 2 tough opponents. Jax looks bad. Especially McCown @ QB. Home @ CAR looking for 1st win.

 

[duaneok66]

i will take the Chargers after taking Pitt in what had to be the lock Survivor pick of the year . . .

 

[FavreCo]

Carolina looks like a possiblility. They have played tough against 2 tough opponents. Jax looks bad. Especially McCown @ QB. Home @ CAR looking for 1st win.

If you have to pick Carolina, that is the game to pick them. Jax blows.

 

[Buc in Exile]

Carolina looks like a possiblility. They have played tough against 2 tough opponents. Jax looks bad. Especially McCown @ QB. Home @ CAR looking for 1st win.

If you have to pick Carolina, that is the game to pick them. Jax blows.

The line on this game will be very interesting to see. If you're in a pool that will require 2 picks later in the year, this may not be a bad way to go this week. If you're not, I'm not sure it's necessary to take the risk as the only other places that look safe to pick San Diego are:- Week 4 (vs. Miami) - but Tampa hosts Indy here and now that Carolina's not an automatic W anymore, it's probably the only great spot for the Bucs all year.- Week 12 (vs. Denver) - but Pitt, Baltimore, Dallas, and Atlanta are all potentially good options there.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

If Jacksonville goes with Gabbert, that will be a fascinating matchup to watch. It would be pretty ballsy to go with a rookie QB in a survivor pool given that turnovers are such an important factor in who wins and who loses and rookie qb's are especially turnover prone.

 

[Restricted]

Detroit is also on my consider list.

 

[Raider Nation]

Early W3 lines for some perspective:

S.F.

CIN -2.5

N.E. -9

BUF

Hous

N.O. -3.5

NYG

PHI (off)

Mia

CLE -3

Den

TEN -7

Det -3.5

MIN

Jax

CAR -3

K.C.

S.D. -14.5

NYJ -3

OAK

Bal

ST.L (off)

Atl

T.B. -1.5

Ari -3

SEA

G.B. -3.5

CHI

Pitt -10.5

INDY

Was

DAL (off)

Surprised a bit that N.E. is favored by 9, especially without Hernandez. Also think the Tennessee number is too high.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Not passing on SD week 3 even though its a division game. They can't be trusted but KC is awful and they waxe them 31-0 last year at home.

That looks to be the play. I also like the fact that they are coming off a loss.(I can forgive a loss to the Patriots. Baltimore's loss to Tennessee was U-G-L-Y)

I think it was just a letdown game after they were so jacked after dominating their #1 rival in week 1. I expect things to be back to normal in week 2 for the Ravens. Plus the Rams will be on a short week since they have to play the Giants tonight. I expect the Ravens to be a 7 point favourite but we'll see.

 

[Buc in Exile]

Early W3 lines for some perspective:S.F.CIN -2.5N.E. -9BUFHousN.O. -3.5NYGPHI (off)MiaCLE -3DenTEN -7Det -3.5MINJaxCAR -3 K.C.S.D. -14.5NYJ -3OAKBalST.L (off)AtlT.B. -1.5Ari -3SEA G.B. -3.5CHI Pitt -10.5INDYWasDAL (off)Surprised a bit that N.E. is favored by 9, especially without Hernandez. Also think the Tennessee number is too high.

Agree on Tennessee. Really surprised Jax is only getting 3 at Carolina - sounds like someone knows something I don't so I'm not going near it. Looks like San Diego's the pick.

 

[kylechoffman]

Bolts in week 3

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

For those with multiple entries, are you going "all in" on SD? Really hate to do that, but not many other solid options to roll the dice with.

 

[Mentos]

I used San Diego in Week 1 and Pittsburgh in Week 2, so I have a tough pick to make in Week 3. I am considering the Saints, Ravens, Patriots and Titans.

 

[Instinctive]

Tennessee looks like a great pick to me. Hass has more left in him than people thought.

 

[Mentos]

Tennessee looks like a great pick to me. Hass has more left in him than people thought.

Yeah, plus it is against the Broncos who are going on the road for the first time. I doubt they will win many road games.

 

[Saint]

Tennessee looks like a great pick to me. Hass has more left in him than people thought.

That's my vote

 

[NajehHejan]

Used San Fran and Detroit.

Debating amongst San Diego, Tennessee, and Carolina.

Feeling risky yet again and strongly considering Carolina. Newton's first game at home. Gabbert's 1st NFL start - on the road to boot.

 

[Black&Gold]

Anybody feel like we've been burned by SD before as a big favorite? I don't know. This just seems like one of those games where everyone goes SD and if you hit on another team......could be an early win for you.

 

[Buc in Exile]

Anybody feel like we've been burned by SD before as a big favorite? I don't know. This just seems like one of those games where everyone goes SD and if you hit on another team......could be an early win for you.

Yes, but usually that happens against a team that has some weapons - the Raiders for example. Even the Vikings have a piece or two (and not much more) and they kept it close. But that's why I like SD even more this week - get them out of the way now against a team that barely resembles an NFL squad playing its second straight road game.

 

[Lehigh98]

I like this Survivor blog too...

vegaswatch.net

2011 NFL Survivor: Week 3

Teams used: Houston, Detroit.

San Diego (vs. Kansas City)

The Chargers are extremely likely (~88%) to win this week; unfortunately everybody knows this, and it is reflected in their popularity. That doesn't rule them out entirely, as you can find something wrong with pretty much every team this week, but it's definitely a big drawback. San Diego has a significant amount of future value, with home games against the Raiders, Broncos, and Bills.

Pittsburgh (at Indianapolis)

Road teams are generally to be avoided, but the location of the game is obviously factored into the spread, which has the Steelers as the second most likely team to win this week, and by a fairly large margin. They're also behind only San Diego in popularity, but 15% really isn't too bad. Home games against the Jaguars and Bengals give the Steelers a similar amount of future value as SD, but I like PIT better mostly because they're so much less popular.

New England (at Buffalo)

I don't really like the Patriots this week, as they are only ~77% to win and have home games remaining against at least one horrendous team (KC), and possibly two (IND, if Manning isn't back by Week 13). Next.

Tennessee (vs. Denver)

The Titans were the team that jumped out to me at first when I looked through this week's options, but they've since been bet down to -6.5. They certainly don't have much future value, but you're giving up a ton of value this week by taking Tennessee rather than Pittsburgh.

Carolina (vs. Jacksonville)

Baltimore (at St. Louis)

Detroit (at Minnesota)

Arizona (at Seattle)

None of these teams are favored by more than four, so while there are some interesting aspects here (not going to have a chance to pick Carolina again!), I don't think they're good enough.

Philadelphia (vs. NY Giants)

A strange one, but I think it's worth a look. This line was OTB for most of the week, but it sounds like Vick is going to play, and the Giants are all banged up themselves, so the Eagles have been installed as a 7.5-point favorite. That puts them right with the Pats at #3 for win probability in Week 3, and I'd rather use Philly than NE since the Eagles are less popular and probably have less future value.

That just leaves the Eagles and Steelers. It's close, but I think their win probability and the uncertainty surrounding Vick make Pittsburgh a more attractive option, so the Steelers are the pick this week.

 

[cheese]

I'm going SD this week. They're saying in that write up to save them for home games against the Raiders, Broncos, or Bills. Honestly, all of those teams seem dangerous to me. KC actually moved the ball just fine on Detroit last week even after Charles went out. Turnovers killed them. They looked like a frustrated bunch though and SD defense isn't exactly the easiest team to get your confidence back. They may hang for a while, but I would be pretty shocked if they won this.

I would consider Pitts as choice 2, but I think they will be playing better later in the season than they are so far.

 

[Dexter Manley]

Tennessee looks like a great pick to me. Hass has more left in him than people thought.

I agree that Tennessee looks like a solid pick, but I like SD better for the following reason:Look at both teams future schedules. The Titans have home games against Indy (week 8) and Jax (week 16). Both of those are better matchups than Denver this week.Compare that to SD's future schedule. Their best home matchup the rest of the way is at home against Denver (week 12), who will be a tougher opponent than KC (and is still a divisional opponent).Now I understand that week 12 projects as possibly the toughest week to survive (unless you save Pittsburgh for their home game vs. kc), but I feel good about Baltimore over SF or Atlanta over minny in that spot.

 

[NajehHejan]

Tennessee looks like a great pick to me. Hass has more left in him than people thought.

I agree that Tennessee looks like a solid pick, but I like SD better for the following reason:Look at both teams future schedules. The Titans have home games against Indy (week 8) and Jax (week 16). Both of those are better matchups than Denver this week.Compare that to SD's future schedule. Their best home matchup the rest of the way is at home against Denver (week 12), who will be a tougher opponent than KC (and is still a divisional opponent).Now I understand that week 12 projects as possibly the toughest week to survive (unless you save Pittsburgh for their home game vs. kc), but I feel good about Baltimore over SF or Atlanta over minny in that spot.

Great analysis. If I don't go Carolina, I'm going SD instead of Ten

 

[Restricted]

This is only week three and all the cream hasn't risen to the top yet. Really afraid to "gamble" just to save a team for later yet. Give me a few more safe picks before I set-up the rest of the season. SD for both my pools.

 

[Instinctive]

Tennessee looks like a great pick to me. Hass has more left in him than people thought.

I agree that Tennessee looks like a solid pick, but I like SD better for the following reason:Look at both teams future schedules. The Titans have home games against Indy (week 8) and Jax (week 16). Both of those are better matchups than Denver this week.Compare that to SD's future schedule. Their best home matchup the rest of the way is at home against Denver (week 12), who will be a tougher opponent than KC (and is still a divisional opponent).Now I understand that week 12 projects as possibly the toughest week to survive (unless you save Pittsburgh for their home game vs. kc), but I feel good about Baltimore over SF or Atlanta over minny in that spot.

Great analysis. If I don't go Carolina, I'm going SD instead of Ten

I would go SD too, for the record - but I used them week one when I didn't change to HOU fast enough aperbag:

 

[Man In The Box]

Used San Fran and Detroit. Debating amongst San Diego, Tennessee, and Carolina.Feeling risky yet again and strongly considering Carolina. Newton's first game at home. Gabbert's 1st NFL start - on the road to boot.

Carolina played at home last week.I'm either taking SD or TEN this week.

 

[QuizGuy66]

San Diego loves to lay eggs in this kind of spot but Kansas City is just so weak I can't see it.

-QG

 

[Joe Summer]

Was going to go with San Diego this week, but the status of Gates and Floyd have got me concerned. Thinking about switching to Pittsburgh (@ Indy) or Detroit (@ Minnesota).