T. Jackson vs. S. Piscitelli (1 Viewer)

[ADP]

It appears to me that Tanard Jackson is the safety to own between the two yet every week I hear the FBG staff hype Piscitelli over Jackson. This week Norton continues to have Piscitelli ranked higher in projections while Borbely hypes him as a "prime" sleeper.

I am not saying Piscitelli is a bum, but if anyone should be hyped in that Tampa secondary, it should be T. Jackson. He combines the tackle numbers with the big play ability. Exactly what you look for in a fantasy DB.

Let the stats speak for themselves...

Last 5 weeks (FBG scoring)

T. Jackson

26 Tackles, 6 Assited, 1 FF, 1 FR, 3 Int, 3 Pds = 71 points

S. Piscitelli

23 Tackles, 5 Assisted, 1 FF, O FR, O Int, O Pds = 42.25 points

I know SS is the "favorite" fantasy position typically, but I don't think that applies in Tampa.

I am far from an expert, so please help me to understand. Am I missing something?

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Here is why I have Piscitelli as a prime cut sleeper this week:

The Bucs face the Saints this week. Below are what strong safeties and free safeties have done, tackle wise, against the Saints this year:

Note: The Jets' safeties line up different based on the packages and situations, and in a quick glance at ProFootballFocus.com, they appeared to evenly split between strong and free safety. I did not list them here because the split is pretty close. Rhodes had 8 solos and Leonhard 4.

In week 3, Buffalo used a lot of big nickel packages, with Scott, Whitner, and Byrd all on the field at the same time.

Strong safeties: (solo tackles, assists)

Marquand Manuel (7,0)

Quintin Mikell (11,0)

Bryan Scott (5,3)

C.C. Brown (12,1)

Yeremiah Bell (8,1)

Erik Coleman (6,4)

Chris Harris (4,2)

James Butler (5,0)

Free Safeties:

Louis Delmas (6,0)

Sean Jones (3,0)

Jairus Byrd (3,2)

Michael Johnson (0,2)

Gibril Wilson (7,2)

Thomas DeCoud (3,2)

Sherrod Martin (2,0)

Oshiomogho Atogwe (5,0)

Strong safeties had 58 solos and 11 assists.

Free Safeties had 29 solos and 8 assists.

Strong safeties averaged over 7 solos and 1.5 assists against the Saints. 7 solos for a DB for an AVERAGE over a half a season is a huge number of tackles.

The difference in the tackle numbers between strong and free safeties against the Saints is substantial. They are generic numbers and I did not look too deep into each game by each of the above. In other words, some of the plays, they could have lined up different than as true SS/FS, but the numbers are pretty overwhelming regardless.

Piscitelli to me is a clearly better start this week based on the above. The Saints are a goldmine for opposing strong safeties and have been all year. Only once all season has a SS had fewer than 5 solos against them.

As for big plays in coverage, they are very hard to predict, especially interceptions. I would not want to count on a DB getting a pick against Drew Brees.

We all know there are no sure things, but the above numbers are overwhelming to me and are why I think Piscitelli is at the top of the sleeper DB list this week.

 

[ADP]

Awesome breakdown AB. I totally understand what you are saying there. I do see the SS matchup being a prime matchup against the Saints usually. I do however notice that when a typically good FS is matched up against the Saints (Delmas, Wilson, and Atogwe) They do just as well in tackles. In instances like that I tend to lean towards the more talented player. And to me (maybe I am alone) I see that as T. Jackson. While Piscitelli might come out with 1 more tackle, the chance for Jackson to make a big play far out weighs Piscitelli's chances I think. If I am projecting both guys to be near each other in tackles, I look to my best chance for a big play. That points me towards Jackson this week.

Saints just seem to be an all around great matchup for DBs in general so I don't think you can go wrong with either guy this week. But if not for the Saints match up, I think T. Jackson is still the TB DB to own. The guy just makes plays.

Any given week, anything can happen. So who knows in the end

Again, great breakdown AB. Much appreciated.

 

[steelcityman]

I have Jackson and he is an easy start for me this week.

 

[topjimmy]

The thing that is most disturbing to me is not the fact that Piscitelli is rated so high based on the statistical evidence provided but that Jackson is so far down the list and not rated higher

 

[steelcityman]

The thing that is most disturbing to me is not the fact that Piscitelli is rated so high based on the statistical evidence provided but that Jackson is so far down the list and not rated higher

I agree, have to figure the Saints will be living in the TB defensive backfield, corners and safeties will be tested every play.