Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
T Orlando Brown Traded to KC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Well that's big. Seems like a good haul for Baltimore to move a guy that didn't want to play RT and asked for trade.
Deamon
Footballguy
Not totally accurate. It's weird all the headlines are saying they're giving up so many picks.... they're getting a lot back too.
Deamon
Footballguy
Pretty good deal for KC I'd say.
I'd guess (haven't looked into the calculator yet), that 58+ 2022 6th is about equal to 94+136+2022 5th, meaning the deal is pretty much Brown for pick 31.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Great trade for both teams in my book - a bit more so for the Chiefs.
Deamon
Footballguy
EDT: Per the draft calculator, the additional picks the Chiefs get (58 + 2022 6th) has a much higher value than what they give up (94 + 136 + 2022 5th)
KC Gets Brown for LESS than Pick 31 in the draft.
Deamon
Footballguy
To even further geek out on value, this would be exactly even:
Ravens Get Picks:
31
94
136
176 (Assuming KC finishes same next year as this year)
Chiefs Get Picks:
45
58
211 (Assuming BALT finishes same next year as this year)
This gives Orlando Brown a value of Pick 45 (Mid 2nd) that the Ravens are receiving for him. That's very little for the Chiefs to give up.
Ravens Get Picks:
31
94
136
176 (Assuming KC finishes same next year as this year)
Chiefs Get Picks:
45
58
211 (Assuming BALT finishes same next year as this year)
This gives Orlando Brown a value of Pick 45 (Mid 2nd) that the Ravens are receiving for him. That's very little for the Chiefs to give up.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I like the move by the Chiefs as it fills a huge need for a surprisingly minimal cost. Shocked Baltimore would send him their given they are a big roadblock to the Super Bowl. Must not have been much of a market?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
There might be some better ones out there but I used this one:
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php#pickvalues
rockaction
Footballguy
Interesting. A tweet from Chase Stuart breaking down the pick swap.
Football Perspective
@fbgchase 1h
I am not surprised that BAL wanted to load up on picks. I think I would rather have 94/136/2022 5th than 58 and 2022 6th, but I could see KC going the other way. Might be a sign or organizational preference, and I'd side with BAL here. I am sure 31 for Brown was close enough.
Football Perspective
@fbgchase 1h
I am not surprised that BAL wanted to load up on picks. I think I would rather have 94/136/2022 5th than 58 and 2022 6th, but I could see KC going the other way. Might be a sign or organizational preference, and I'd side with BAL here. I am sure 31 for Brown was close enough.
rockaction
Footballguy
Anyway, I'm thrilled. I roster Mahomes in my main dynasty league, and judging by what I saw in the Super Bowl with all their guys hurt, and then Eric Fisher released, this makes me
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
No offense, but I've seen your dynasty league roster and no offensive tackle trade is going to be enough to help you.Anyway, I'm thrilled. I roster Mahomes in my main dynasty league, and judging by what I saw in the Super Bowl with all their guys hurt, and then Eric Fisher released, this makes me
rockaction
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Gender:Female
Location:Fantasy Draft Dungeon
Interests
raft Domination / Draft Submissiveness
Thanks for popping in, Scott.
Deamon
Footballguy
He is SO off on value. According to all precedents set in the past, a 58 + next year 211 is MUCH better than 94 + 136 + next year 176.
That is like moving up from a compensatory 3rd round pick, to a mid 2nd, and only throwing in a late 4th. That would NEVER happen in the NFL.
rockaction
Footballguy
Okay, man. That is one of the top guys in the industry, so...
I don't know. Everybody messes up. I'm really not positive how it works or if he has the correct information. As it is, he reconfigured the Jimmy Johnson values for the draft picks that the ESPN+ guys (and most people) use now. He's the go-to. Could have messed up, I guess.
I'll wait and give him the benefit of the doubt on this.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, they've already pointed out that he's unsigned next year. Expect a big pay here. They just spent a first, they're likely going to cough it up for him.
Deamon
Footballguy
I'm not saying he's not one of the top guys in the industry. I'm saying he is out to lunch on these values. I'll agree that he might have messed up his calculations. No one is moving from from 94 to 58 by throwing in a late 4th and a 5/6 pick swap in the future.
rockaction
Footballguy
Sure. I'm rehashing a tweet from a few hours ago. I'll look to see if he updates in the comments or re-tweets. I think you might -- and I say this with a huge grain of salt -- might be making a mistake of transitivity in math here. I don't think you can just isolate that first is for 31 and that the rest is a separate equation. They all factor in.
But I'm really not certain because I don't usually dissect trades at the value level. Just know that there are competing answers to the value question.
Deamon
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
If KC wins the SB, it was worth it even if he walks.
So for non-contenders, they were probably willing to give up less.
I'm sure they plan to re-sign him though.
rockaction
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Deamon
Footballguy
My guess is that the negotiations started with "Brown for pick 31" and KC asked to add the extra stipulations.
If you do look at the trade as a whole like I did above, it works out that Brown had a value of pick 45 in this trade (Other calculators might be better than the one I used, but I'd bet almost all of them would keep it around pick 40.) Hell of a good deal for KC.
Deamon
Footballguy
@billbarnwell
This values Brown as being worth something like the 44th pick in a typical draft on the Jimmy Johnson chart. (We had him at 37 in the mock draft piece.) Closer to the 23rd pick by @fbgchase’s chart.
Looks like his chart is MUCH different than the Johnson chart that many NFL teams still use. Chase's chart really increases the value of that 31st pick. Either way, the 'add ons' benefit KC no matter how I can look at it. Would there EVER be a team able to move up from 94 to 58 by throwing in so little? I would think that kind of jump would cost a LOT more than that in the real world.
Deamon
Footballguy
Funny tweet out there about how they have 1.27 and 1.31 and on the chart, that works out to 1.11. Gettleman might have another chance to move back
If the Ravens can get Toney and either an OT or edge rusher with 1.27 and 1.31, why trade up? Too many busts in the first round, even at 1.11, so better to get 2 chances.Funny tweet out there about how they have 1.27 and 1.31 and on the chart, that works out to 1.11. Gettleman might have another chance to move back
Deamon
Footballguy
Not disagreeing, just thought it was a funny observation with that hilarious Gettleman interview the other day
DocHolliday
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree. I think they had a glaring need and, like you said, addressed it. I hope they sign him and it works out.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Is the thought that Baltimore wasn't going to be able to afford him? Why are they moving on?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
They had him at RT but he wanted to play and be paid like a LT and they already have Stanley there.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Interesting. I assume he just wanted LT status because it pays more? If I am Baltimore and can afford it, I would think 2 franchise OTs is a good thing. Maybe he just wanted out? Odd situation as young Pro Bowl level OTs rarely become available. Though KC did pay a serious price for him.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Seems like a good move for KC even if they just had traded pick 31 straight up.
Adding in the other pick swaps gives them another relatively high pick at 58 for what appears to be less value than that.
Good move. Obvious super bowl window type trade for an obvious super bowl window type team.
Adding in the other pick swaps gives them another relatively high pick at 58 for what appears to be less value than that.
Good move. Obvious super bowl window type trade for an obvious super bowl window type team.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Yes, he played well there when Stanley was hurt last year so he was adamant about getting paid.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't blame him. I was just thinking LT vs RT likely doesn't matter to him other than the $. If I am a team and I have 2 great OTs, I want to pay them both but it might just not be possible for the Ravens. Or maybe they don't think Brown is all that.
He said that his father always wanted him to be a LT. Considering the ties to the area (including his father who played RT for the Ravens), it certainly seems more about the money than the position.
No team can realistically afford to pay 2 top OT salaries regardless of which side they play, and Stanley just signed a ~$100 mil deal. Also, Lamar needs to get paid.
If I'm ever an NFL GM, my first rule will be: don't give up a draft pick for the right to sign (or extend) a veteran at his fair market value.
Cheap deal for the Chiefs, compare this to what the Texans paid for Tunesil and it's a steal. With the only minor caveat being Tunesil is at least a known stud LT. I would trade a pick for a pro-bowler plus a contract any time though, easy to forget especially during rookie fever time of the year that picks bust the vast majority of time.
Man, I think the Ravens won this deal by a pretty good margin. Brown is a slightly above average OT in my opinion. I think he's been greatly protected by the Ravens scheme. He almost never has to block in pure pass sets, which was one of the reasons(along with weight issues) that he "fell" to the 3rd round a few years ago. In KC, he's going to be put on that island most of the game, there is little to no evidence he can handle it.
Brown has been a Pro Bowl OT the last 2 years, but Pro Bowls are meaningless, nowhere more so than on the OL, where the average person has no idea who is any good. and just votes for teams with successful offenses, or names they know. With the way the Ravens run their scheme, they are probably the easiest team to be an OL for.
I agree this looks like a good deal compared to the Tunsil deal. but the Tunsil deal was an all-time bad deal. I do agree with the logic of trading a draft pick for a top notch player, but Brown is not a top notch player(he's maybe a top-20 OT) and is likely going to want a league leading contract, which is why the Ravens wanted to move him in the first place.
There has been a real trend this offseason of teams throwing draft picks away for veterans and I can't think of a single one that I think the team trading the picks won:
The Panthers throwing away a 2 for Darnold(likely a downgrade from Teddy, who is a backup caliber QB himself)
The Rams giving up 2 1sts for a slight QB upgrade(Stafford might be the most overrated player in the NFL, they went from probably the 20th best QB to about the 15th in my opinion)
The Colts giving up a 3 and a likely 1, for a QB who has steadily declined since 2017, and is likely a huge downgrade from Rivers, hell, maybe even a sideways step from Brissett)
I would agree sometimes draft capital is overrated, but I think its entirely reasonable that this loaded OT class has at least 3-4 guys better than Brown in it. This feels like a panic move by KC to me, and one that could put them in a Saints like cap situation real quick.
Brown has been a Pro Bowl OT the last 2 years, but Pro Bowls are meaningless, nowhere more so than on the OL, where the average person has no idea who is any good. and just votes for teams with successful offenses, or names they know. With the way the Ravens run their scheme, they are probably the easiest team to be an OL for.
I agree this looks like a good deal compared to the Tunsil deal. but the Tunsil deal was an all-time bad deal. I do agree with the logic of trading a draft pick for a top notch player, but Brown is not a top notch player(he's maybe a top-20 OT) and is likely going to want a league leading contract, which is why the Ravens wanted to move him in the first place.
There has been a real trend this offseason of teams throwing draft picks away for veterans and I can't think of a single one that I think the team trading the picks won:
The Panthers throwing away a 2 for Darnold(likely a downgrade from Teddy, who is a backup caliber QB himself)
The Rams giving up 2 1sts for a slight QB upgrade(Stafford might be the most overrated player in the NFL, they went from probably the 20th best QB to about the 15th in my opinion)
The Colts giving up a 3 and a likely 1, for a QB who has steadily declined since 2017, and is likely a huge downgrade from Rivers, hell, maybe even a sideways step from Brissett)
I would agree sometimes draft capital is overrated, but I think its entirely reasonable that this loaded OT class has at least 3-4 guys better than Brown in it. This feels like a panic move by KC to me, and one that could put them in a Saints like cap situation real quick.
KC made a similar trade for Clark....and it kinda paid off....when you are always gonna be drafting this late for probably the next ten years because of Mahomes/Reid....it kind of makes sense....trade for known production while you are in the SB window instead of taking the chance so to speak on a late first rounder you aren’t sure about....and worry about the contracts later....rinse and repeat....the luxury you have when you hit on a unicorn...
Last edited by a moderator:
and if I’m not mistaken....they also now have two second round picks this year In the “loaded” OT class..so they could double down if need be...
