Plus they are getting back two opt outs Ning and LDTF....addressed needs and still have picks
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T Orlando Brown Traded to KC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
I think they've been successful despite the Clark trade. Clark has mostly been a below average starter, who has stepped up in 2 playoff games. However, I think he's been a pretty awful investment otherwise. A lot of guys they could have taken at those picks ended up better as well.
Honestly, the Chiefs have really made several bad moves over the last couple years or so. Hardman was an awful pick, CEH was a reach, Watkins was a monster overpay. It goes to show just how much an elite QB is worth, that it almost doesn't matter, the bolded is 100% true, but truth be told, the Chiefs success is probably at least 80% based on things they did over 4 years ago.
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Von Miller is the poster child of what a a couple playoff games can do for you so I’ll definitely take what Clark did in those games ...they may not win the SB if they don’t have him.....that’s worth a lot of draft picks sometimes as hard as it actually is to win them....nobody in KC is saying the Clark trade wasn’t worth it....nobody...the contract KC gave Houston was god awful and lucky to get out when they did...it’s easy to say a lot of guys ended up better after the fact....
I guess maybe more teams should make the several bad moves you referred to as they are a lined up offsides by dee ford or a coin flip away from being in three straight Super Bowls ....
they obviously don’t know what they are doing...just “lucky” to get Mahomes....who they traded up 17 spots to get...
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I think you are misunderstanding what I was saying. I didn't say anything about them getting "lucky" with Mahomes. I said that having him gives them a lot more leeway when they make bad moves. Mahomes was an outstanding pick, that they somehow probably don't get enough for. He was a huge risk at the time, as most teams were very uncomfortable taking spread QB's highly.
As for the bolded, I think it was easy before the fact too. Clark has never been a great player, usually he's been average or worse, but he has made some important plays. That said, its possible(I'd argue likely) that armed with those extra picks and cap space, they could have gotten more use from that than Clark has provided. Maybe they win in 2019 and 2020? I will agree this trade does remind me of the Clark deal, though its probably a little better than that was.
My point was that the Chiefs have made several bad moves and still had the success they've had, that will catch up with them if it keeps up, as the reasons they've been successful have mostly been because of guys acquired in 2017 and earlier.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
From an article at The Athletic, here are 3 different trade value calcs on how this washes out:
1. Jimmie Johnson Chart: Brown for the 44th
2. Rich Hill: Brown for the 37th
3. Michael Lopez: Brown for the 25th
I see it written often that JJ's chart is outdated, but still seems to be the one cited most often in trades. I don't have a clue who the other two dudes are, or if one is more accurate than the other. The average of the 3 is pick 35.
Another way to look at it is that Baltimore gave up Brown to move up 27 spots and gain a 3rd & 4th (leaving aside the 2022 late rounders swapped). Moving up into the 1st is important, because now the 5th year option is in play. It's a nice carrot to dangle in front of other teams should the Ravens look to trade it - it's another year to evaluate the player while under team control. It's why they moved into the first to select Lamar Jackson 3 years ago when they could have gotten him early 2nd.
Baltimore wasn't ever re-signing Brown at LT market prices (they're already paying Stanley $100 mil to play there; they also have decisions to make on Jackson & Mark Andrews in the next year or so). When Brown went public, they were kind of boxed in. They could have kept him this season, after which he would have gotten top-of-the-market LT money from someone else, and gotten nothing in return. I have no doubt Brown would have played well and not dogged it (a lesson I'm sure he learned from the combine).
I'm sure, besides their division rivals (& NE, from residual loathing), KC is the last team Baltimore wanted to do this deal with. But you can only dance with those who step onto the floor and it appears the Chiefs were the best (only?) partner out there.
There are risks for both teams here.
KC gets a good player at a position of need for a year cheap, but either has to pay him big money or let him walk. And Brown's a weaker pass blocker than he is a run blocker (or has been, at least).
Baltimore immediately weakens their OL (especially if Stanley is slow to return to form). It's also more important that they nail this draft than it was this time yesterday.
But, I like the trade for both teams, given their circumstances, and that they had the guts to do it.
1. Jimmie Johnson Chart: Brown for the 44th
2. Rich Hill: Brown for the 37th
3. Michael Lopez: Brown for the 25th
I see it written often that JJ's chart is outdated, but still seems to be the one cited most often in trades. I don't have a clue who the other two dudes are, or if one is more accurate than the other. The average of the 3 is pick 35.
Another way to look at it is that Baltimore gave up Brown to move up 27 spots and gain a 3rd & 4th (leaving aside the 2022 late rounders swapped). Moving up into the 1st is important, because now the 5th year option is in play. It's a nice carrot to dangle in front of other teams should the Ravens look to trade it - it's another year to evaluate the player while under team control. It's why they moved into the first to select Lamar Jackson 3 years ago when they could have gotten him early 2nd.
Baltimore wasn't ever re-signing Brown at LT market prices (they're already paying Stanley $100 mil to play there; they also have decisions to make on Jackson & Mark Andrews in the next year or so). When Brown went public, they were kind of boxed in. They could have kept him this season, after which he would have gotten top-of-the-market LT money from someone else, and gotten nothing in return. I have no doubt Brown would have played well and not dogged it (a lesson I'm sure he learned from the combine).
I'm sure, besides their division rivals (& NE, from residual loathing), KC is the last team Baltimore wanted to do this deal with. But you can only dance with those who step onto the floor and it appears the Chiefs were the best (only?) partner out there.
There are risks for both teams here.
KC gets a good player at a position of need for a year cheap, but either has to pay him big money or let him walk. And Brown's a weaker pass blocker than he is a run blocker (or has been, at least).
Baltimore immediately weakens their OL (especially if Stanley is slow to return to form). It's also more important that they nail this draft than it was this time yesterday.
But, I like the trade for both teams, given their circumstances, and that they had the guts to do it.
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Deamon
Footballguy
Per the average of all the calculators, they gave up pick 35 for him.
Pick 35 imo is not a serious price for him.
Deamon
Footballguy
You'd be striking out on a lot of players. If they didn't give up the pick, they wouldn't have the player this year, and might not win the SB this year because of it.
If every GM just took the "I'll wait until he's a FA and then sign him", there would be a lot less contenders improving their teams.
Deamon
Footballguy
There has been a lot of talk on twitter and in this thread on how to value Brown in this deal. The JJ one is a bit outdated based on the new CBA, but I find some of the other ones over compensate for this. I'm a big "the truth lies somewhere in the middle" believer, so I think that Brown chart is most accurate on what teams ACTUALLY use (many, many teams still use the JJ one).
Brown for pick 37 is a huge steal for KC.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Yes with all picks into the equation it works out to brown for about pick 35. (The Jimmy calculator has it at pick 44, and a different one earlier).
Astronomically cheap for the Chiefs imo.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
We’ll see. Brown will be an UFA after this year and will want top dollar. At some point the salary cap bill will come due for the Chiefs and I am not sure they can keep paying out $18M a year contracts. Is potentially one year of Brown worth a late first or early second when they could have drafted a tackle that could have been cheap for 5 years?
Deamon
Footballguy
Yes. Brown would be way better than any rookie tackle. If they win the sb this year it's 100 percent worth it. So many teams think long term, long term, long term. Their window is now, the goal of football is to win the sb. They gave up the value of an early-mid 2nd rounder for a guy that instantly fixes their biggest issue for at least a year, and potentially longer if they choose to keep him.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Again, we’ll see. Brown (and Thuney) the past few years were rated as good or above average by PFF. In recent years there have been OL men that were All Pro as rookies. I don’t think Brown is as good as you are making him out to be, and BAL was much more of a running team than a passing team. He’s better than the other options KC had, so yes it helps the team for this year.
We don’t know what we don’t know, and one of the things we don’t know is who else they could have gotten if they offered their first round pick to 30 other teams.
While KC is in win now mode, they should be in the hunt for years with Mahomes. So I would suggest they should be looking at the next 3-5 years not just this one. Like with any trade, it could be awhile before we can truly evaluate how this one turned out.
I am sure there are hits in different years, later rounds, etc. but Rookie tackles bust fairly often, let’s look back at 2019 as an example:
-Bengals drafted Jonah Williams at 11. Missed his entire rookie season due to injury. Started at LT this past season, started 10 games, missed two due to injury and then injured his knee before landing on IR. Now the Bengals are thought by many to maybe be planning to spend the 5th overall pick on Sewell.
-Eagles traded up in front of the Texans to take Andre Dillard at 22 giving up a 4th and a 6th. Dillard started 4 games total his rookie season as an injury fill-in. He was named the starting LT last year but suffered a torn bicep in preseason and missed the entire season. Jury is still out but pretty poor initial returns.
-Texans drafted Tytus Howard at 23. Moved him to RT tackle and then traded a fortune for Tunesil. Howard was rated well as a rookie by PFF but only started 8 games before landing on IR. Howard started 14 games last year before landing on IR again and regressed badly. Texans traded for RT Marcus Cannon from the Pats swapping picks in the 4th, 5th, & 6th. They will likely compete for starting RT with the loser kicking inside to guard.
-Falcons traded up to 31 for Kaleb McGary giving up a 3rd for a 6th. He won the starting RT job as a rookie and has started 30 games out of 32. PFF has rated him as a terrible pass blocker and in need of replacing.
-Bengals drafted Jonah Williams at 11. Missed his entire rookie season due to injury. Started at LT this past season, started 10 games, missed two due to injury and then injured his knee before landing on IR. Now the Bengals are thought by many to maybe be planning to spend the 5th overall pick on Sewell.
-Eagles traded up in front of the Texans to take Andre Dillard at 22 giving up a 4th and a 6th. Dillard started 4 games total his rookie season as an injury fill-in. He was named the starting LT last year but suffered a torn bicep in preseason and missed the entire season. Jury is still out but pretty poor initial returns.
-Texans drafted Tytus Howard at 23. Moved him to RT tackle and then traded a fortune for Tunesil. Howard was rated well as a rookie by PFF but only started 8 games before landing on IR. Howard started 14 games last year before landing on IR again and regressed badly. Texans traded for RT Marcus Cannon from the Pats swapping picks in the 4th, 5th, & 6th. They will likely compete for starting RT with the loser kicking inside to guard.
-Falcons traded up to 31 for Kaleb McGary giving up a 3rd for a 6th. He won the starting RT job as a rookie and has started 30 games out of 32. PFF has rated him as a terrible pass blocker and in need of replacing.
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Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Those 3rd & 4th rounders Baltimore got are gonna be real, live players. What if both bust? What if both become All Pros? What if one of them is good and the other sucks? What if Brown becomes a HOFer? What if he can't adjust to a pass-first team? I don't know how those draft pick calculators account for that (I suspect they don't at all).
Deamon
Footballguy
Not sure where you're going with this. They calculate value of the picks in terms of NFL trades.
If you took your stance with every trade, then you could never ever analyze a trade until 10 years down the line. There's still some merit in current values even if it will never paint the entire picture.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
I'm not sure. Loads of research and calculations I imagine. As well as precedents set from hundreds of draft trades.
MAC_32
Footballguy
The Rams took what the Saints have done and smashed the pedal to the floor. The Chiefs are in the process of a similar process. Is it the right approach? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Based on what I know I hate it and wouldn't do it. I think a marginally better chance to win now while marginally decreasing the chance to win in future years is a mistake. It's not sustainable. I think a team is better off taking a developmental and economical approach. More to it, but high level once the QB and coach are in place I would rather have a top 5 team over many years than a top 2 team over few years. But is there information within those teams we are not privy to that justifies their actions?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Maybe Andy is thinking of retiring and is doing what needs to be done in the next few years to win another SB. Never know the circumstances but we saw what TB did to KC in the big game and I understand the concern and desire to address it. If a brown works out and you pay him...it is not a bad position to invest in.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Like any team they have flexibility to create space (via kicking the can down the road), but as is they have the space to retain Brown and Honey Badger. And that's probably it, which is why I mentioned the need for draft picks. And now they're down to 2 inside the top 100 with #3 being in the comp portion of round 4 (#130-140?).
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think it just boils down to if Brown is that good. If he is it will be worth it. If you can get a Pro Bowl tackle for a late 1st rounder (what in its most simplest terms is what this trade essentially is) I think you do it. Cap will be going up and protecting your franchise is priority one. Moving up to 58 for a 94 is a big win for the Chiefs and they sacrificed very little future pick wise. If I were GM I would prefer to build through the draft, however this is a unique situation where a young Pro Bowl tackle is available. Brown’s play will decide who wins this trade. I can’t blame KC for going this direction and if he is not worth you let him go. Yes you dice rolled a late first (all draft choices are dice rolls anyway) but you moved up from 94 to 58 as well.
Ravens get 31, 94, 136 (and a 5th next year)
Chiefs get Brown, 58 (6th next year)
MAC_32
Footballguy
Given KC's current situation I don't think it's as simple as if this doesn't work then let him go. They lack the means to fix future problems that develop on their current roster, so if it doesn't work then they have limited options. I agree that protecting the franchise is the priority though.
this pretty much where I am at....Brown for the 1st....gave up 3rd and 4th for an extra 2nd.....(will just call the 5th for 6th a throw in although it is a nice bump for BAL)
Brown is only 24 years old.....best football could be ahead of him.....KC has done a pretty good job with their contracts to Mahomes and Jones that allow some flexibility.....heck if they were going to somehow be able to sign Trent Williams.....they must have things in pretty good shape....Mahomes will probably be "restructuring" every year in some way shape or form....
somebody commented about the benefits of a 5th year option above......not sure how much that really comes into play anymore in some cases......it seems that if a first rounder is really special, teams end up signing that player to an extension before the 5th year option really happens......teams aren't generally even reallly getting the benefit of those last/5th years on the cheap.....it kind of seems that only comes into play for some of the "marginal" good but not great first round players.....so again, I think it takes some of the heat off of giving up a "late" first round pick.....
the extra second this year is a nice "get" in this trade....lot of times I'd maybe rather have that extra 2 then a 3 and 4....
KC didn't sit around they addressed a huge need by bringing in Thuney, Brown, Blythe, Long.....Niang and LDT will be back....and they have some other guys around still that filled in last year (Wylie, Remmers, etc)....and they have left the door open to bringing back one or both of Fisher/Schwartz if they return to health and are willing to sign team friendly deals.....what was weakness seems to have gotten much stronger....
