Taking Advantage Of Owners That Panic (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

We've talked in other threads about the all important balance in reacting to week 1. In my opinion, you can't ignore the things we've seen happen in week 1 but at the same time, you don't want to panic either.

There are two types of over reactions:

#1. The guys you think will be good that had a bad Week 1 and their owners are panicking. Call these Week 1 Under Achievers.

#2. The guys that you think won't be that good but had a great Week 1. Call these Week 1 Over Achievers.

Obviously, you'd want to deal the Over Achievers and obtain the Under Achievers.

What players do you see in those groups?

And more importantly, why?

Like we did with the outstanding What I learned in Week 1 thread, let's please keep the discussion mostly one way with you throwing out what you think and not debating what other guys are saying.

Thanks.

J

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Over

Palmer

Collie

Nicks

Foster

Forte

Under

Bowe

Desean

Schaub

Wells

 

[Joe Bryant]

One quick way to do this is to target the guys that struggled against great defenses.

I'd almost automatically put guys that faced, NYJ, BAL & PIT into the bunch of guys that underachieved.

J

 

[tangfoot]

Under: Andre Johnson

An awesome talent and if you can convince his owner that HOU is primarily a running team now, you may be able to pry him away. Especially if his owner lost in Week 1.

Over: Forte. Primarily got his points via receptions, and I don't think that will be the norm for him this season.

 

[Jed]

Biggest over: Nicks. I'm a Giants homer, and I love him, but Eli is going to spread the ball around enough to make him less valuable. People are talking top 5 WR after his 3 TD performance, if I could swing a trade for someone like Desean I would do it in a second.

Biggest under: Gore

 

[imagroid]

What about Deangelo Williams? Looked like he got almost all the carries, but only put up 62 yards.....which is OK. But a lot of guys will see 6 points and think "meh". PPR wise does he qualify as someone that should be sought after?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Under: Michael Turner, Deangelo Williams. Obviously they still won't come cheap, but you may be able to get them for a discount this week from a panicky owner after they both put up disappointing performances against tough defenses.

 

[Young 8]

Biggest over: Nicks. I'm a Giants homer, and I love him, but Eli is going to spread the ball around enough to make him less valuable. People are talking top 5 WR after his 3 TD performance, if I could swing a trade for someone like Desean I would do it in a second.

What ?Desean has no QB

 

[Exit 1]

Biggest over: Nicks. I'm a Giants homer, and I love him, but Eli is going to spread the ball around enough to make him less valuable. People are talking top 5 WR after his 3 TD performance, if I could swing a trade for someone like Desean I would do it in a second.

What ?Desean has no QB

Yeah, I'd much rather have Nicks than DeSean.

 

[thriftyrocker]

What about Deangelo Williams? Looked like he got almost all the carries, but only put up 62 yards.....which is OK. But a lot of guys will see 6 points and think "meh". PPR wise does he qualify as someone that should be sought after?

He lost all the receptions to Mike Goodson. Reason for concern.I think he'll do well against TB this weekend and have a good year. But I think his price might be higher than his worth.

 

[coltsnut]

Steve SMith of the NYG....everybody is hyping Nicks (for good reason maybe) but I like Smitty to be the leader in receptions and yards for the NYG. Nicks will likely be the TD guy there but those are hard to predict.

 

[PIK95]

There is another category I think about and it includes guys that overachieved but I think will keep it going. Those are the guys I target.

 

[playin4beer]

I own CJ Spiller in two leagues.. another week or two like the first and you won't have to offer me a trade, you can pick him up on the waiver wire.

 

[thriftyrocker]

First to say McFadden. OVERACHIEVE. SELL. NOW.

 

[thehornet]

Biggest over: Nicks. I'm a Giants homer, and I love him, but Eli is going to spread the ball around enough to make him less valuable. People are talking top 5 WR after his 3 TD performance, if I could swing a trade for someone like Desean I would do it in a second.

What ?Desean has no QB

Yeah, I'd much rather have Nicks than DeSean.

I would never trade Nicks for Desean Jackson. Sorry.

 

[Jed]

Biggest over: Nicks. I'm a Giants homer, and I love him, but Eli is going to spread the ball around enough to make him less valuable. People are talking top 5 WR after his 3 TD performance, if I could swing a trade for someone like Desean I would do it in a second.

What ?Desean has no QB

I think that is a classic week 1 overreaction. In the 2 weeks with Kolb starting last year, Desean went 250/2

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

This thread is one of many hondas.

 

[bshell27]

Under- Guys I have that I am panicking on

Beanie- nagging injury? WIll he ever get majority of carries (why I did not want to draft him but couldn't pass)

Barber- not much for stats and equal carries for Felix but they say he broke a TD run that was called back? As a Barber owner I did not see this happen, I am sure there are others who didn't either.

Colston- Targeted, but he is a guy that flies under the radar on gametime, probably because all the other WR's get the TD's.

Witten- Blocking TE only now or what? Owners may be worried.

 

[[icon]]

Offered Nicks/Harrison for Greene and a scrub. In non PPR I love the deal and after week 1 it looks okay for him...

We'll see.

 

[Dismattle]

My two top back's are Tuner the Burner and Shonne Greene. I believe most of my players had what I would call tough matchups. I was a lil disappointed that Atl went the kitchen sink route to try an jump-start the running game but eh its football "play to win the game" But Mr. Greene has me worried (QB struggling) and his backup is proficient in the passing game. I still have no clue why he didnt play after the 2nd fumble (coaches didnt respond etc.) I carried this guy last season for this season so hes overvalued to say the least but He could be a good candidate for under achiever that has the owner worried type deal. I could almost picture Coach Ryan telln Shonne "I dont care if you lose a yd" pound and push "BUT Dont fumble the dam BALL" fwiw Im in a 12 team league and Slaton (KR) is on the ww ...

The only example I have for possible over-achiever is prolly Sea. Def/ST (I liked em last season and well I was wrong) I know they made changes (new Coach) new Wideout so anyway I picked up their Def. (I still need to check their running stats) but anyway now Im reading that San Fran (whose suppose to dominate by most eyes) has made changes in how calls are relayed (I believe its the off Cord. who basically is or was relayin plays from memory) so basically San Fran had I dunno 3 plays in the 20 that resulted in delay of games. In other words I may have some fools gold.

I still havnt read much on Jahvid Best vs. the Bears (wife helped me choose to start the monsters over Tenn & Oakland) but anyway what was it 19 for 20 yds?? Time to roster Kevin Smith? I even heard an announcer mistakingly say that Best is fillin in for the injuried Smith. I drafted Smith because it looked odd seein him available so late but since dropped him.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Biggest over: Nicks. I'm a Giants homer, and I love him, but Eli is going to spread the ball around enough to make him less valuable. People are talking top 5 WR after his 3 TD performance, if I could swing a trade for someone like Desean I would do it in a second.

What ?Desean has no QB

I think that is a classic week 1 overreaction. In the 2 weeks with Kolb starting last year, Desean went 250/2

Pretty sure guys like Young 8 would suggest that Kolb is unlikely to start much longer, that Vick is really the starter. In which case, Desean no longer has a QB who can throw the ball.

 

[Jed]

Biggest over: Nicks. I'm a Giants homer, and I love him, but Eli is going to spread the ball around enough to make him less valuable. People are talking top 5 WR after his 3 TD performance, if I could swing a trade for someone like Desean I would do it in a second.

What ?Desean has no QB

I think that is a classic week 1 overreaction. In the 2 weeks with Kolb starting last year, Desean went 250/2

Pretty sure guys like Young 8 would suggest that Kolb is unlikely to start much longer, that Vick is really the starter. In which case, Desean no longer has a QB who can throw the ball.

If Vick is the QB, I wholeheartedly agree. I think Kolb will be the man though. Just needs a little time.

 

[Todem]

Over

Palmer

Collie

Nicks

Foster

Forte

Under

Bowe

Desean

Schaub

Wells

Disagree on both the bolded.

Nicks = STUD

Wells = Always hurt and will not play with any type of pain. You don;t last in the NFL with that moniker.

 

[Todem]

One quick way to do this is to target the guys that struggled against great defenses.I'd almost automatically put guys that faced, NYJ, BAL & PIT into the bunch of guys that underachieved.J

Pimping Greene I see.Have fun pulling your hair out with him Joe.Ray Rice on the other hand....now that is a playa!!!

 

[NeverEnough]

I tried to get AJ after this week. What did the owner counter with? She wants Ray Rice, Marshall AND Romo just for AJ. LOL!!!!!!!!

 

[HairySasquatch]

Got Gore and Finley for McCoy and B. Jackson yesterday.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I tried to get AJ after this week. What did the owner counter with? She wants Ray Rice, Marshall AND Romo just for AJ. LOL!!!!!!!!

There's your problem.

 

[diggler]

What about Kolb? Guy in my league overreacted and dropped him. I'm thinking I need to put a waiver claim immediately. He will have a very long leash by Andy Reid, and could still put up good numbers when he comes back from his concussion. Thoughts on Kolb as a buy low/underachiever?

 

[shredhead]

There is another category I think about and it includes guys that overachieved but I think will keep it going. Those are the guys I target.

Arian Foster fits your new catergory in my opinion!

 

[Prinefan]

I tried to get AJ after this week. What did the owner counter with? She wants Ray Rice, Marshall AND Romo just for AJ. LOL!!!!!!!!

Curious what you offered. If someone lowballed me for AJ I might come back with a similar counter.

 

[NeverEnough]

I tried to get AJ after this week. What did the owner counter with? She wants Ray Rice, Marshall AND Romo just for AJ. LOL!!!!!!!!

Curious what you offered. If someone lowballed me for AJ I might come back with a similar counter.

I offered Marshall & Addai I believe.Regardless, this is her 1st year playing FF & she does not know the value of players. She thinks he is worth a lot b/c she scored the most points week 1. Further proof, this damn hobby is all luck.

 

[PIK95]

There is another category I think about and it includes guys that overachieved but I think will keep it going. Those are the guys I target.

Arian Foster fits your new catergory in my opinion!

I actually own him a lot and thought he was a first rounder in redrafts going in. I scooped him later in many drafts. But yes, he fits it. Nicks is another. D Mac is a sneaky one. Mike Thomas is another. That's all you are getting now, lol. Good thread though.

 

[Christo]

One quick way to do this is to target the guys that struggled against great defenses.I'd almost automatically put guys that faced, NYJ, BAL & PIT into the bunch of guys that underachieved.J

But I wouldn't necessarily put them in the category of players to target. Most people understand that good players struggle against good defenses and are probably not going to let them go cheap. I think it's better to target guys who you think underachieved for reasons other than playing against good Ds but who you think will bounce back. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson come to mind.

 

[BAY_AREA_GIANT]

I own CJ Spiller in two leagues.. another week or two like the first and you won't have to offer me a trade, you can pick him up on the waiver wire.

lol, same exact situation for me. My gut told me to stay away from him this year, but I incorrectly bought into all the hype.

 

[PIK95]

I tried to get AJ after this week. What did the owner counter with? She wants Ray Rice, Marshall AND Romo just for AJ. LOL!!!!!!!!

Curious what you offered. If someone lowballed me for AJ I might come back with a similar counter.

I actually got offered him for DWill in a $ league yesterday. I was mad when I missed out on him in the draft. I am not a big DWill guy so I took the offer.edited to add I was still talking bout Arian Foster. Damn blackberry.

 

[BAY_AREA_GIANT]

Got Gore and Finley for McCoy and B. Jackson yesterday.

Is there a highway robbery emoticon? Congrats.Gore is the biggest undervalued player right now.People see Ray Rice and Michael Turner struggle in week one, but are smart enough to know the Jets and Steelers are two of the top defenses.I've posted it a few times now, Seattle has a deceptively good rush defense especially at home. Combine that with a noisy stadium, young QB in week one, and a very young OL (who I think will get very good by year's end), and you have a recipe for disaster. Seattle did a very good job stopping Gore at home last year too (not so much when the same was in SF). Gore's schedule continues to look juicy and if he struggles against NO (if the Saints can score early and take him out of the game), you might be able to pry him for even cheaper.

 

[T with T]

Steve SMith of the NYG....everybody is hyping Nicks (for good reason maybe) but I like Smitty to be the leader in receptions and yards for the NYG. Nicks will likely be the TD guy there but those are hard to predict.

I think Nicks will have less receptions but more yards, tds.....

 

[cheese]

One quick way to do this is to target the guys that struggled against great defenses.I'd almost automatically put guys that faced, NYJ, BAL & PIT into the bunch of guys that underachieved.J

But I wouldn't necessarily put them in the category of players to target. Most people understand that good players struggle against good defenses and are probably not going to let them go cheap. I think it's better to target guys who you think underachieved for reasons other than playing against good Ds but who you think will bounce back. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson come to mind.

I'd much rather go after Schaub/Andre who didn't put up stats essentially because the running game was dominating so badly they didn't have to. Also, I'm squarely in the "Turner looked terrible" camp so a bad stat line against a big name defense isn't going to drive his price down nearly enough.

 

[DepthCharts]

I tried to get AJ after this week. What did the owner counter with? She wants Ray Rice, Marshall AND Romo just for AJ. LOL!!!!!!!!

Curious what you offered. If someone lowballed me for AJ I might come back with a similar counter.

I offered Marshall & Addai I believe.Regardless, this is her 1st year playing FF & she does not know the value of players. She thinks he is worth a lot b/c she scored the most points week 1. Further proof, this damn hobby is all luck.

I'm a little lost on this one...."She" does not know the value of players, but, "She" was the high scorer for the week, and,"She" drafted and has Andre johnson."She" kicked al your butts week 1 without her 1st (or 2nd) round pick performing and you immediately believe this damn hobby is all luck?Sounds to me like "She" is in a position of strength (high scoring team with no production from Andre) and you think " "she" thinks he is worth a lot b/c "she" scored the most points week 1? " (that just makes no sense)Sounds to me like "She" knows that adding andre's scores is going to separate her even further from you and that it would take Rice/Marshall/Romo to keep that separation the same.I don't want "her" in my league

 

[Joe Bryant]

One quick way to do this is to target the guys that struggled against great defenses.I'd almost automatically put guys that faced, NYJ, BAL & PIT into the bunch of guys that underachieved.J

But I wouldn't necessarily put them in the category of players to target. Most people understand that good players struggle against good defenses and are probably not going to let them go cheap. I think it's better to target guys who you think underachieved for reasons other than playing against good Ds but who you think will bounce back. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson come to mind.

Sure. But in a first cut of sorting through guys, I'll automatically put players that faced a great defense in the group. I see lots of people that don't understand the defense angle. Mark Sanchez is now unable to play NFL quarterback if you listen to a lot of people. The reality is that Baltimore makes a LOT of NFL quarterbacks look bad.But yes, the guys that underachieved for less obvious reasons are even better.J

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

Next time you may want to consider using the search feature.

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There were several others but I got tired...you talk about wanting to clean up the clutter in the SP? Maybe you should start by setting the example. Mod or not, why must you start your own thread to discuss what is essentially a buy low/sell high topic?

Merge some of these things together. Otherwise it dilutes the conversation by forcing people to pick one of the threads and it causes others to miss on some potential quality.

 

[Lehigh98]

Biggest over: Nicks. I'm a Giants homer, and I love him, but Eli is going to spread the ball around enough to make him less valuable. People are talking top 5 WR after his 3 TD performance, if I could swing a trade for someone like Desean I would do it in a second.

What ?Desean has no QB

Yeah, I'd much rather have Nicks than DeSean.

Talk to Jed, he's looking to trade.

 

[notme]

What about Kolb? Guy in my league overreacted and dropped him. I'm thinking I need to put a waiver claim immediately. He will have a very long leash by Andy Reid, and could still put up good numbers when he comes back from his concussion. Thoughts on Kolb as a buy low/underachiever?

My team was dead at QB. Stafford with a broken wing and Cassel looking like crap as a backup.Enter the moron who dropped Kolb for Vick...I put in a claim for him and will probably get him. Start Cassel against Cleveland this week and have Kolb as the starter going forward. :happy:I love people that overreact after Week 1.

 

[Wrigley]

Trying to trade for Andre Johnson right now

 

[tietzjd]

Next time you may want to consider using the search feature.

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5

There were several others but I got tired...you talk about wanting to clean up the clutter in the SP? Maybe you should start by setting the example. Mod or not, why must you start your own thread to discuss what is essentially a buy low/sell high topic?

Merge some of these things together. Otherwise it dilutes the conversation by forcing people to pick one of the threads and it causes others to miss on some potential quality.

Gutty performance to call out the owner of this site. But I to was hoping for some twist on this one. But I do approve of JOE being much more involved on the forums this year. It nice touch see man putts together all this (Yes with his minions!) more involved.

 

[Fragis Frodum]

I tried to get AJ after this week. What did the owner counter with? She wants Ray Rice, Marshall AND Romo just for AJ. LOL!!!!!!!!

Curious what you offered. If someone lowballed me for AJ I might come back with a similar counter.

I offered Marshall & Addai I believe.

Ah, the old "two nickels for a quarter" approach. Real slick.

 

[Bristol]

We've talked in other threads about the all important balance in reacting to week 1. In my opinion, you can't ignore the things we've seen happen in week 1 but at the same time, you don't want to panic either.There are two types of over reactions:#1. The guys you think will be good that had a bad Week 1 and their owners are panicking. Call these Week 1 Under Achievers. #2. The guys that you think won't be that good but had a great Week 1. Call these Week 1 Over Achievers.Obviously, you'd want to deal the Over Achievers and obtain the Under Achievers.What players do you see in those groups?And more importantly, why?Like we did with the outstanding What I learned in Week 1 thread, let's please keep the discussion mostly one way with you throwing out what you think and not debating what other guys are saying. Thanks.J

I love these kind of owners, Joe! I never understand their line of thinking either. You prepare all offseason and in your draft to put together the best possible team and then after week one, you want to blow everything up! It happens every year and I just don't understand it!

 

[abe froman]

Next time you may want to consider using the search feature.

1

2

3

4

5

There were several others but I got tired...you talk about wanting to clean up the clutter in the SP? Maybe you should start by setting the example. Mod or not, why must you start your own thread to discuss what is essentially a buy low/sell high topic?

Merge some of these things together. Otherwise it dilutes the conversation by forcing people to pick one of the threads and it causes others to miss on some potential quality.

I dont mind as threads like these mean more to me than useless banter about players or individual fantasy teams provided by nobodies. If staff feels it should be merged or is repetitive let them deal with it. Really dont need more thread police in here..

 

[NeverEnough]

I tried to get AJ after this week. What did the owner counter with? She wants Ray Rice, Marshall AND Romo just for AJ. LOL!!!!!!!!

Curious what you offered. If someone lowballed me for AJ I might come back with a similar counter.

I offered Marshall & Addai I believe.Regardless, this is her 1st year playing FF & she does not know the value of players. She thinks he is worth a lot b/c she scored the most points week 1. Further proof, this damn hobby is all luck.

I'm a little lost on this one...."She" does not know the value of players, but, "She" was the high scorer for the week, and,"She" drafted and has Andre johnson."She" kicked al your butts week 1 without her 1st (or 2nd) round pick performing and you immediately believe this damn hobby is all luck?Sounds to me like "She" is in a position of strength (high scoring team with no production from Andre) and you think " "she" thinks he is worth a lot b/c "she" scored the most points week 1? " (that just makes no sense)Sounds to me like "She" knows that adding andre's scores is going to separate her even further from you and that it would take Rice/Marshall/Romo to keep that separation the same.I don't want "her" in my league

Are you trying to tell me Aj will score as much as the 3 guys listed this year? LOLYou don't think a lot of this comes down to luck every year? SUre it does. My keeper league roster (another league) consists os Chris Johnson, MJD, Brees, Vernon Davis, Marshall, etc & I still didn't win it all last year.

 

[Tong Po]

There is another category I think about and it includes guys that overachieved but I think will keep it going. Those are the guys I target.

Arian Foster fits your new catergory in my opinion!

Kind of hard to buy low on guys that fit this category though isn't it?