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Talk me out of this, please. (1 Viewer)

GCP

Footballguy
Like many of you I was thrilled with snagging Chris Johnson with the 6th pick of this year's draft. I started him with confidence in week 1 after all the glowing reports and was shocked and appalled with his lackluster performance and opportunities. My high hopes for the Titans are quickly plummeting as they were manhandled and out of shape in losing to a Jaguars team that should be in "Suck for Luck" mode by week 11.

Meanwhile, my RB2 Jahvid Best was solid if unspectacular in garnering 110 total yards on 25 touches in week 1. And my RB3, Reggie Bush, was heavily involved as well, putting up 90 total yards and a TD.

This week, the Lions host the DOA Kansas City Chiefs, a team that was embarrassed on opening day and lost perhaps their best player, Eric Berry, to a torn ACL in the process. It's a succulent matchup for Best and I consider him a must start.

Reggie, meanwhile, is home against the Houston Texans, who were impressive in dismantling their rivals on Opening Day, but have never been known for defense. A lot of these summer Miami home games are going to turn into shootouts in the 4th quarter as the pass rushers get tired. Reggie isn't a must start but I think I like him more than...

CJ2K, who faces a Ravens team that held Mendenhall to 20 yards in week 1, a Ravens team that forced seven turnovers and dominated Pittsburgh from pillar to post. Maybe Munchak panicked in his first game, maybe CJ wasn't in shape, maybe they just couldn't get a push at all, I have no idea. But Ngata and company aren't a good bunch to get healthy against.

Looks like Best and Reggie are the play. Talk some sense into me.

 
I'm starting 3 running backs and I don't think any of them is Chris Johnson. The only plus for Johnson is the team wants him to get 20+ carries and around 25 touches this week. Darren McFadden @ Buf and Jahvid Best vs kc are locked in at running back. For flex I'm leaning towards starting reggie bush over cj (ppr)

 
My high hopes for the Titans are quickly plummeting as they were manhandled
No they weren't. They were not able to convert third downs and their defense was not able to make many key stops. The Jags had a 2:1 TOP advantage.
...and out of shape
:confused: The receivers ran better routes then I've seen from the Titans in 3 or 4 years. The blocking up front was fairly good considering there were 8 or 9 men in the box on every play.
in losing to a Jaguars team that should be in "Suck for Luck" mode by week 11.
Jax just spent a top-10 pick on a quarterback. ANyway, the Titans abandoned the run because the Jaguars were daring them to pass. Hasselbeck showed some progress as the game wore on. Most notably absent, however, was a passing game in the near-box (less then 10 yards downfield, between the hashmarks). Because he kept throwing it outside on deep outs, curls, and swing passes, there was very little reason for the Jaguars to back their linebackers of of the LOS. I imaginge (hope) that the coaches recognize this in film study and find a way to incorporate Cook/Stevens/Hall/Hawkins more in to the mix to open up the run.To the question at hand, I make it a point to not bench first round players (1) this early in the season and (b) when they are one of only four or five guys in the league that can make up for a bad game on a single carry.
 
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Like many of you I was thrilled with snagging Chris Johnson with the 6th pick of this year's draft. I started him with confidence in week 1 after all the glowing reports and was shocked and appalled with his lackluster performance and opportunities. My high hopes for the Titans are quickly plummeting as they were manhandled and out of shape in losing to a Jaguars team that should be in "Suck for Luck" mode by week 11.Meanwhile, my RB2 Jahvid Best was solid if unspectacular in garnering 110 total yards on 25 touches in week 1. And my RB3, Reggie Bush, was heavily involved as well, putting up 90 total yards and a TD.This week, the Lions host the DOA Kansas City Chiefs, a team that was embarrassed on opening day and lost perhaps their best player, Eric Berry, to a torn ACL in the process. It's a succulent matchup for Best and I consider him a must start.Reggie, meanwhile, is home against the Houston Texans, who were impressive in dismantling their rivals on Opening Day, but have never been known for defense. A lot of these summer Miami home games are going to turn into shootouts in the 4th quarter as the pass rushers get tired. Reggie isn't a must start but I think I like him more than...CJ2K, who faces a Ravens team that held Mendenhall to 20 yards in week 1, a Ravens team that forced seven turnovers and dominated Pittsburgh from pillar to post. Maybe Munchak panicked in his first game, maybe CJ wasn't in shape, maybe they just couldn't get a push at all, I have no idea. But Ngata and company aren't a good bunch to get healthy against.Looks like Best and Reggie are the play. Talk some sense into me.
Nothing to say. You should have started Best and Reggie week 1. Reggie was the Hawk Play of the Week. You learned your lesson. Now play Best and Reggie week 2 and try to get back to 1-1.
 
See the "I'm benching Ray Rice Week 1" thread. I think that should make a decent case in talking you out of benching Johnson.

 
I think people have taken schedule analysis WAY too far. You drafted Johnson as your #1 fantasy player, the anchor of your team. He disappointed in Week One, sure, but so did quite a few other players. His coach understands he screwed up, and has promised a major workload for CJ. On top of that, they're paying him to be one of the biggest difference makers in the league -- at any position. You don't pay someone like that to use as a decoy.

Benching CJ is inexplicable to me unless you have such a stacked roster that you have two or three (if there's a flex) likely Top 10 options at the RB position this week.

 
To put it another way, why on Earth did you draft Johnson if one bad week is enough to convince yourself benching him is the right move?

 
To put it another way, why on Earth did you draft Johnson if one bad week is enough to convince yourself benching him is the right move?
Exactly what I was going to say. If you're thrilled you got him at 6, you considered him a top 3 or 4 back. And you're going to bench a top 3 or 4 back for Reggie Bush? Good luck with that.And I'm one of the more anti-CJ guys out there.
 
see Ray Rice, wk 1
Exactly! Look, if you really think his situation is so bad, and you really expect him not to perform at least well enough to be your RB2 this coming week, then you might as well trade him.I don't have him but if I did I would start him over any but the best RBs next week. The guy missed camp and so maybe he was just a bit behind. They have a new Coach right? So, a new system? Maybe he just didn't have it down enough to be more involved. Another week though, and the team obviously can see it needs to get him involved more, and so, I think there is hope.
 
Hold on, if you'll check the Ray Rice thread, I was actually the first reply. It was all of one word: dumb.

Not seeing how this is a little different? CJ managed 40 yards against the Jaguars and now the Ravens are rolling in. Rice has never looked anything outside of awesome since snap one of training camp. Reggie is being used as a feature back in a game that will probably see 50 points scored. I'm not saying it's a slam dunk but it merits discussion at the very least.

@Joffer, key word in that quote you pasted: WAS thrilled

 
See the "I'm benching Ray Rice Week 1" thread. I think that should make a decent case in talking you out of benching Johnson.
:goodposting:What are some of you people thinking? I had doubts about CJ. That's why I didn't draft him and let someone else deal with the down season I expect. That said, if you drafted CJ in the first round, you should disagree with me and one bad week sure shouldn't be enough for you to think about benching him.
 
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Hold on, if you'll check the Ray Rice thread, I was actually the first reply. It was all of one word: dumb.Not seeing how this is a little different? CJ managed 40 yards against the Jaguars and now the Ravens are rolling in. Rice has never looked anything outside of awesome since snap one of training camp. Reggie is being used as a feature back in a game that will probably see 50 points scored. I'm not saying it's a slam dunk but it merits discussion at the very least.@Joffer, key word in that quote you pasted: WAS thrilled
I think it is always good to examine your squad and look closely at matchups, even for players like Rice and CJ. I just don't think the case for benching either player this early is too compelling (unless a team is loaded at RB... and maybe you feel that way with Best and Bush as your other options?).The main argument for benching Rice focused on his poor showings vs. the Steelers in two regular season games last year, I believe, and the likelihood he'd struggle again. Part of the argment for benching Johnson is focused on him starting slow after holding out and facing a tough BAL D this week. The other part of your specific argument is that Bush should see a lot of opportunity vs. HOU this week (won't disagree there, if we're working under the assumption that D. Thomas might be inactive).Arguments for benching Rice last week and CJ this week are fairly similar, imo. They focus on a small sample size of games for the RBs in question and the fact each player is facing a tough D.
 
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Arguments for benching Rice last week and CJ this week are fairly similar, imo. They focus on a small sample size of games for the RBs in question and the fact each player is facing a tough D.
Similar.... a little. One sample size was from 10 months ago with all sorts of changes in personnel and circumstance. CJ's was two days ago, when he rushed for 24 yards on 9 carries in a loss to the Jaguars.
 
I think people have taken schedule analysis WAY too far. You drafted Johnson as your #1 fantasy player, the anchor of your team. He disappointed in Week One, sure, but so did quite a few other players. His coach understands he screwed up, and has promised a major workload for CJ. On top of that, they're paying him to be one of the biggest difference makers in the league -- at any position. You don't pay someone like that to use as a decoy.

Benching CJ is inexplicable to me unless you have such a stacked roster that you have two or three (if there's a flex) likely Top 10 options at the RB position this week.
Jason, lots of posters especially FBGs who go out and build monster rosters will face this situation. I understand your POV here and I tend to agree but I have him down as a terrible play this week. He had a lot of duds last year or just meh performances mixed in with big games and I don't think it is crazy to explore other options.

 
Who cares where I drafted him?
Dude, come to your senses.You are chasing points. One thing that any savvy ff owner knows is that nobody can predict what will happen from week to week with studs or duds. There are some weeks where a stud should dominate and sucks, just as there are weeks where they should probably be held out and they explode. Unless he is nursing an injury you should never bench CJ.As far as Bush and Best go, good luck with that if you think that will bring you elite production all year. Both of those guys are little men who will eventually get injured right in the middle of a game, probably right on a week when you decide to bench CJ. I don't know that much about the Houston D, but if they even halfway fixed their cb situation and JJ Watt proves to be a stud, well, they could be an elite defense. I also would not bet the farm that Detroit will even beat KC let alone kill them. KC has a competent front office and has a lot of talent on their roster, and the Lions, while improved are inexperienced and might get caught reading their own press clippings this week.
 
I think people have taken schedule analysis WAY too far. You drafted Johnson as your #1 fantasy player, the anchor of your team. He disappointed in Week One, sure, but so did quite a few other players. His coach understands he screwed up, and has promised a major workload for CJ. On top of that, they're paying him to be one of the biggest difference makers in the league -- at any position. You don't pay someone like that to use as a decoy.

Benching CJ is inexplicable to me unless you have such a stacked roster that you have two or three (if there's a flex) likely Top 10 options at the RB position this week.
Jason, lots of posters especially FBGs who go out and build monster rosters will face this situation. I understand your POV here and I tend to agree but I have him down as a terrible play this week. He had a lot of duds last year or just meh performances mixed in with big games and I don't think it is crazy to explore other options.
right, cj went pretty late. im sure plenty of teams paired him with dmac, gore, mjd, turner then snagged wells, hightower, felix, tolbert, fjax later. not saying i would bench him for those guys but its a consideration.
 
I remember in 2009 Cj put up a stinker against the Steelers in the first game of the year getting like 7 points. He then went out a dropped 50pts on the Texans week 2.

If you weren't prepared to take a 10 pt night every once in a while from CJ, then you shouldn't have drafted him.

 
I always stack my team with my best bets to be the number one rb. CJ is one of the few that can actualy give you that week in, week out. Putting him on the bench is not a very wise decision no matter the scenerio.

 
I think people have taken schedule analysis WAY too far. You drafted Johnson as your #1 fantasy player, the anchor of your team. He disappointed in Week One, sure, but so did quite a few other players. His coach understands he screwed up, and has promised a major workload for CJ. On top of that, they're paying him to be one of the biggest difference makers in the league -- at any position. You don't pay someone like that to use as a decoy.

Benching CJ is inexplicable to me unless you have such a stacked roster that you have two or three (if there's a flex) likely Top 10 options at the RB position this week.
Jason, lots of posters especially FBGs who go out and build monster rosters will face this situation. I understand your POV here and I tend to agree but I have him down as a terrible play this week. He had a lot of duds last year or just meh performances mixed in with big games and I don't think it is crazy to explore other options.
right, cj went pretty late. im sure plenty of teams paired him with dmac, gore, mjd, turner then snagged wells, hightower, felix, tolbert, fjax later. not saying i would bench him for those guys but its a consideration.
I read things like this almost every year and the only conclusion I can come to is that I am not very smart.People continually post "never bench your studs" and "benching player x is inexplicable"

My questions are simple ones

1. What exactly makes a person a 'stud'? Is there this universal definition I am unaware of? Apparently past performance must gain you future years entrance into this club because I repeatedly see people refer to players that are no longer a 'stud' in my mind. It must also include a variable number performance, sometimes I see it referring to the #12 WR or even the #34 RB. So can someone list all the current studs and how long they are enshrined in this club, current production notwithstanding?

2. Isn't the real objective simply setting a lineup that you THINK will score you the most points each week?

Look, I can understand our reluctance to shine a harsh light on the current status of a first or second round pick. I get the desire to continue to define a player by past glories. I can also understand those that simply don't want to put the amount of time and energy into thinking about it. But why do we hold onto these half truths? At the end of the day, why not go out and set your starters based who you think will score you the most points, whether you are a gut/feeling type of owner or a more analytical one, it seems to be the truest way to me :shrug:

 
Start him, but just lower his ceiling for the game. Being at home will only help. His value is increased in ppr as hasselbeck looked for him--he just needs to increase his ypc.

 
I'm benching him, but I'm not stopping with Johnson! I am also benching Andre Johnson, Tom Brady, and Antonio Gates this week.

 
People in my league called me crazy for benching SJax when he was my 2nd round selection and RB1. I plugged in Hightower. Worked out pretty well.

 
'Zaphod said:
'cvnpoka said:
'Ministry of Pain said:
'Jason Wood said:
I think people have taken schedule analysis WAY too far. You drafted Johnson as your #1 fantasy player, the anchor of your team. He disappointed in Week One, sure, but so did quite a few other players. His coach understands he screwed up, and has promised a major workload for CJ. On top of that, they're paying him to be one of the biggest difference makers in the league -- at any position. You don't pay someone like that to use as a decoy.

Benching CJ is inexplicable to me unless you have such a stacked roster that you have two or three (if there's a flex) likely Top 10 options at the RB position this week.
Jason, lots of posters especially FBGs who go out and build monster rosters will face this situation. I understand your POV here and I tend to agree but I have him down as a terrible play this week. He had a lot of duds last year or just meh performances mixed in with big games and I don't think it is crazy to explore other options.
right, cj went pretty late. im sure plenty of teams paired him with dmac, gore, mjd, turner then snagged wells, hightower, felix, tolbert, fjax later. not saying i would bench him for those guys but its a consideration.
I read things like this almost every year and the only conclusion I can come to is that I am not very smart.People continually post "never bench your studs" and "benching player x is inexplicable"

My questions are simple ones

1. What exactly makes a person a 'stud'? Is there this universal definition I am unaware of? Apparently past performance must gain you future years entrance into this club because I repeatedly see people refer to players that are no longer a 'stud' in my mind. It must also include a variable number performance, sometimes I see it referring to the #12 WR or even the #34 RB. So can someone list all the current studs and how long they are enshrined in this club, current production notwithstanding?

2. Isn't the real objective simply setting a lineup that you THINK will score you the most points each week?

Look, I can understand our reluctance to shine a harsh light on the current status of a first or second round pick. I get the desire to continue to define a player by past glories. I can also understand those that simply don't want to put the amount of time and energy into thinking about it. But why do we hold onto these half truths? At the end of the day, why not go out and set your starters based who you think will score you the most points, whether you are a gut/feeling type of owner or a more analytical one, it seems to be the truest way to me :shrug:
:goodposting: I'm someone who benched Rice last week. Turns out that cost me 7 points from my starting lineup. Could cost me down the line in the playoff race if there's a tie in the standings but for now I'm 1-0 with a 30 point W against the team that went AJ/Calvin.

For too long when I first began this hobby, I relied on consensus and other peoples' rankings to set my lineup. This seemed to leave me with middle of the pack teams that would barely miss the playoffs every year based on a loss or two where a ballsy lineup decision would've tipped the scales in my favor. I also noticed that most of the winners were in some way going out on a limb or against the grain in some trades/lineup decisions. As the saying goes, "Fortune favors the bold".

Now that I have a more firm grasp of the league and the impact of all the different variables from personnel/coaching to weather, I'm more able willing to call my own shots and I've been much more successful/lucky.

Sometimes benching that high round pick who's facing Revis or the Steelers D or whatever is the right call. I'd rather go with a methodology that takes into consider all the factors at hand and delivers a well rationalized strategy rather than blindly following some cliched adage.

 
'GCP said:
Arguments for benching Rice last week and CJ this week are fairly similar, imo. They focus on a small sample size of games for the RBs in question and the fact each player is facing a tough D.
Similar.... a little. One sample size was from 10 months ago with all sorts of changes in personnel and circumstance. CJ's was two days ago, when he rushed for 24 yards on 9 carries in a loss to the Jaguars.
Mr. Wood addressed the touches/carries matter earlier in the thread. Munchak said he'd get CJ the ball more this week. I agree that his minimal production on 9 carries is a bit concerning. But again, the sample size of one game (with only nine carries) is so small that I wouldn't worry about that too much. A two-game sample size from last year isn't overly significant (partially due to personnel change etc. as you pointed out) when making a decision on Rice... very similar to how a one game sample size, where Johnson only got 9 carries, isn't all that significant when making a decision about Johnson, despite it being a more recent sample. I'm not saying the samples are the same in any way other than they both are not adequate enough to be the driving force behind benching a proven commodity such as Ray Rice or Chris Johnson.

Things change in FF and good owners need to adapt quickly. So I think it is great you are looking at your lineups and matchups closely. Seems like you're being diligent. In this case; however, you may be over-thinking things. (or maybe you're spot on, I don't claim to know for certain)

 
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People in my league called me crazy for benching SJax when he was my 2nd round selection and RB1. I plugged in Hightower. Worked out pretty well.
:confused: It worked out because Jackson got hurt. He had a 40+ yard TD run in his first touch and judging from the way Cadillac ran in his place, might have had 200+ yards on the day. Your decision was only "correct" because of a factor you had zero ability to predict.
 
I do not agree with the unwritten rule: "Never bench your studs". In this scenario, CJ is coming off a long holdout in which he played no preseason games. It will take him a couple weeks to get back to form. That is a fact. Baltimore is the much better team, who will most likely have possession for a majority of the game. Not to mention, will be leading by a large margin. There are a few questions you need to ask yourself.

How many points do you think Tennessee will score against Baltimore?

Of those points, how many do you think will be touchdowns by CJ?

How much upside do you see in CJ against Baltimore?

Does that potential upside outweigh his potential downside?

What are your other options?

In my opinion, CJ will not do much this week for a variety of reasons. Best case scenario: 100 total yards and a td, which I highly doubt. More realistically what I think he will get is 40-60 total yards and no td. Very possibly less.

Comparing this situation to benching Brady with a tough matchup is ridiculous. They are not the same. A QB has much more control of the offense and is a part of every play. And in most cases, a stud QB has a stud offense. A stud QB will most likely always perform well, with a couple exceptions. A stud RB, especially on a bad team, has much more that is out of his control. The score of the game, time of possession, lack of surrounding talent, etc.

I am not saying throw a crappy back who has a good matchup over CJ. But if you have a decent starting RB who has a good matchup, I would have no problem benching CJ.

 
Like many of you I was thrilled with snagging Chris Johnson with the 6th pick of this year's draft. I started him with confidence in week 1 after all the glowing reports and was shocked and appalled with his lackluster performance and opportunities. My high hopes for the Titans are quickly plummeting as they were manhandled and out of shape in losing to a Jaguars team that should be in "Suck for Luck" mode by week 11.

Meanwhile, my RB2 Jahvid Best was solid if unspectacular in garnering 110 total yards on 25 touches in week 1. And my RB3, Reggie Bush, was heavily involved as well, putting up 90 total yards and a TD.

This week, the Lions host the DOA Kansas City Chiefs, a team that was embarrassed on opening day and lost perhaps their best player, Eric Berry, to a torn ACL in the process. It's a succulent matchup for Best and I consider him a must start.

Reggie, meanwhile, is home against the Houston Texans, who were impressive in dismantling their rivals on Opening Day, but have never been known for defense. A lot of these summer Miami home games are going to turn into shootouts in the 4th quarter as the pass rushers get tired. Reggie isn't a must start but I think I like him more than...

CJ2K, who faces a Ravens team that held Mendenhall to 20 yards in week 1, a Ravens team that forced seven turnovers and dominated Pittsburgh from pillar to post. Maybe Munchak panicked in his first game, maybe CJ wasn't in shape, maybe they just couldn't get a push at all, I have no idea. But Ngata and company aren't a good bunch to get healthy against.

Looks like Best and Reggie are the play. Talk some sense into me.
Best is the "Succulent Play of the Week"
 
OK, so those of us who started CJ week 2 were wrong. For the second week in a row he sucked. This time he got 20 carries, a bunch of targets and he still sucked. Ringer got the TD, which is worrisome.

I'm not ready to panic- yet. I can actually buy into the excuses: he wasn't ready week 1, he played against a great run defense week 2. But I am running out of time here. I nearly lost week 1, and did lose week 2, because my stud running back is doing nothing. Johnson has got to get going, or I am screwed, and so is a whole lot of other owners.

Anyone worried?

 
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I am really baffled as to why everyone is so surprised. Like I said before: "CJ is coming off a long holdout in which he played no preseason games. It will take him a couple weeks to get back to form. That is a fact."

CJ will be fine. But this was not the week to start him, regardless of how many carries he would get.

 
So let me ask you this, owners of CJ3: If a league mate offered you a trade for him, what would you ask for? I imagine a few risk taking owners may be licking there chops at trying to pry away Johnson. I myself have pondered offering Hillis (because I have concerns about the back end of his schedule) but will probably stand pat due to Johnson being inconsistent dating to last year.

I am curious though what people would listen too. At this point Johnson owners can't initiate a trade--don't want to sell low--but what if they are approached. What would you do?

 
So let me ask you this, owners of CJ3: If a league mate offered you a trade for him, what would you ask for? I imagine a few risk taking owners may be licking there chops at trying to pry away Johnson. I myself have pondered offering Hillis (because I have concerns about the back end of his schedule) but will probably stand pat due to Johnson being inconsistent dating to last year. I am curious though what people would listen too. At this point Johnson owners can't initiate a trade--don't want to sell low--but what if they are approached. What would you do?
 
So let me ask you this, owners of CJ3: If a league mate offered you a trade for him, what would you ask for? I imagine a few risk taking owners may be licking there chops at trying to pry away Johnson. I myself have pondered offering Hillis (because I have concerns about the back end of his schedule) but will probably stand pat due to Johnson being inconsistent dating to last year. I am curious though what people would listen too. At this point Johnson owners can't initiate a trade--don't want to sell low--but what if they are approached. What would you do?
savvt owners will hang on to him or make you pay up. Never hurts to throw an offer out there. Not all owners are as savvy as you think.
 
This week was obviously quite disappointing. It would be one thing if the Titans were just awful, e.g., say the Chiefs, and it appeared that CJ just had nowhere to run because the defense could key on him. But Hasselbeck has been having plenty of success slinging the ball around, and Javon Ringer looks productive. I honestly felt like the Ringer TD run was a reward for him and a message to CJ that $13 million per season doesn't equal what we've seen thus far. I HOPE that Johnson's competitiveness won't let the big guaranteed money impact his ability to produce, but I would be lying if I said I wasn't concerned.

Apologies to anyone who kept CJ2K in your lineup based on my emphasis last week.

 
I am really baffled as to why everyone is so surprised. Like I said before: "CJ is coming off a long holdout in which he played no preseason games. It will take him a couple weeks to get back to form. That is a fact."CJ will be fine. But this was not the week to start him, regardless of how many carries he would get.
He doesn't look someone who is slowly returning to form. He looks like someone who is toast. Like Jamal Lewis or Eddie George.
 

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