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Target Practice: TD’s and Yardage Points per Target (1 Viewer)

AJ, Evans, Roy Williams, Santana Moss and Kevin Walter all had 800-853 yards last year.
Johnson's a different case since he missed seven games. Roy Williams missed four, too, and obviously has a new OC.Moss has 8.2 targets per game. Walter had 6.6.Here's a list of the yards/game and targets/game of the guys that averaged between 45-70 yards/game last year.
Code:
T/G	 Y/G   T*YDerrick Mason	 BAL	10.3	68	703Steve Smith	   CAR	 9.9	67	664Roy Williams	  DET	 8.7	70	608Kevin Curtis	  PHI	 8.4	69	580Plaxico Burress   NYG	 8.8	64	567Donald Driver	 GB	  8.1	70	564Chris Chambers	SD	  8.1	61	493Hines Ward		PIT	 8.7	57	493Laveranues Coles  NYJ	 8.1	59	476Santana Moss	  WAS	 8.2	58	472Bernard Berrian   CHI	 7.9	59	466Shaun McDonald	DET	 7.9	59	463Deion Branch	  SEA	 7.7	60	461Dwayne Bowe	   KC	  7.3	62	453Joey Galloway	 TB	  6.5	67	437Lee Evans		 BUF	 7.1	53	379Isaac Bruce	   STL	 7.2	52	376Reggie Brown	  PHI	 6.9	48	335Kevin Walter	  HOU	 6.6	50	329Calvin Johnson	DET	 6.3	50	316Amani Toomer	  NYG	 6.5	48	309Ike Hilliard	  TB	  5.8	48	279Ronald Curry	  OAK	 6.1	45	275David Patten	  NO	  5.5	50	272Brandon Stokley   DEN	 5.5	49	271Roydell Williams  TEN	 5.9	45	266Patrick Crayton   DAL	 5.4	46	251Justin Gage	   TEN	 5.3	47	248Antwaan Randle El WAS	 5.1	48	246
All other things being equal -- and they aren't -- the guys with the high targets have the best outlooks. So Derrick Mason, Steve Smith, Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, Santana Moss, Laveranues Coles and Chris Chambers look good. Joey Galloway, Donald Driver, Roy Williams, Dwayne Bowe, Kevin Curtis, Deion Branch and Antwaan Randle El look bad, relative to if we ignored targets. The latter group had good yardage numbers on moderate targets; the first group had very good target numbers and decent yardage.
 
http://www.sportcrack.net/2008/08/magical-...wr-targets.html

one mans opinion and work

The Magical 110: Analyzing WR Targets

To be honest, I’ve never really paid much attention to targets. Don’t ask me why, I just didn’t. I knew about them, but I never really tried to put them in context -- probably because I was too lazy. When you do think about them though, the more targets a player gets, the more his chance is to succeed. The better his chance to succeed, the more points he’ll likely put up for your fantasy squad. It’s not that hard of a concept to wrap your mind around. If I can do it...

With the help of the Game Log Dominator (to which I have officially become addicted) I compiled a list of the top WR targets from 2002-2007 and separated them by year. After studying the list and getting a decent handle on the fluxations from year to year, I tried to find a mark off point. One hour and two slices of pizza later, I found one. At least, I think I found one.

That cut off point was 110 targets per year. Not knowing quite where I was going but too intrigued to stop, I calculated the minimum and maximum average receptions, yards and TD’s from 2002-2007 combined. I dropped the highest and lowest each year to get a more realistic sampling. I’m not entirely sure if that was mathematically correct, but it made sense at the time. So I did it.

Out of all the players who had at least 110 targets from 2002-2007, the minimum average was:

62 receptions, 790 receiving yards and 3 TD’s

A fair amount of 1 and 2 TD performances bogged the minimum down a bit, but it’s still an impressive line none-the-less. On the positive end, the maximum average was:

104 receptions, 1,444 receiving yards and 13 TD’s

I think I speak for everyone when I say I’d take that! The summation I eventually came to was that if you could predict the WR’s who had a good shot at getting at least 110 targets then you have a great shot at having that player produce a pretty respectable season, at worst.

But I didn’t stop there. On average over the 6 years, 27 WR’s managed to be targeted at least 110 times. In the interests of seeing the amount of players who broke into that list on average each year, I continued upon my statistical, math-complimented quest. Without even a calculator, mind you! If only my third grade teacher could see me now..

Two hours and two cigarettes later, I came up with the average of 10 players over the past six years who broke into or back onto that top 27/110 targets list each year. To get to the point of the purpose for the post, here are the 10 players who I don’t think will manage to acquire the 110 targets that they saw in 2007:

Derrick Mason (BAL) - With Steve McNair gone and rookie Ray Rice wowing the crowds, the Ravens very well may run a lot more than they will pass this year. Especially with either Troy Smith or Kyle Boller at QB.

Lee Evans (BUF) - Marshawn Lynch proved last year he could be a workhorse back and rookie WR James Hardy gives Trent Edwards another actual option besides Evans to throw to.

Reggie Brown (PHI) - King of RB targets, Brian Westbrook, will still see a massive amount of targets for a RB. DeSean Jackson will in turn steal some more targets away from Brown.

Marques Colston (NO) - Pass catching TE Jeremy Shockey should see his fair share of targets in 2008. The emergence of rookie WR Robert Meachem should as well.

Bobby Engram (SEA) - You can’t get targets if your not on the field.

Chris Chambers (SD) - This may be a long shot, but if Gates can return soon then he’ll resume his hoarding of the targets. LaDainian Tomlinson and Vincent Jackson won’t help Chambers totals either.

Shaun McDonald (DET) - No Mike Martz system? No targets.

Bernard Berrian (CHI) - I don’t think I need to go on a limb and say that the Vikings may run a lot this year. The more they run, the less targets Berrian will get.

Donald Driver (GB) - Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons to spread the targets around. Driver will get some, but not 110.

Hines Ward (PIT) - Santonio Holmes? Willie Parker? Rashard Mendenhall? Heath Miller? All will get targets that Hines Ward will not.

Who will the ten be that fill the vacancies you say? Ask and you shall receive! The 2007 target totals are in parentheses:

Anquan Boldin (99) (ARI) - Should get at least 110 targets no matter who ends up being the starting QB.

Calvin Johnson (95) (DET) - He’s going to get more and more targets as the years go by.

Santonio Holmes (85) (PIT) - With Hines Ward on the decline, Holmes will benefit from increased targets.

Ten Ginn Jr. (71) (MIA)- Ginn’s likely targets got a huge boost with the arrival of Chad Pennington.

Muhsin Muhammad (81) (CAR) - Muhammed should see a lot of targets in Steve Smith’s two-game absence and even some when he returns. He’ll get more if Jake Delhomme can stay healthy.

Andre Johnson (86) (HOU) - The only reason Johnson didn’t total 110 last year was because he was injured for 7 games.

Jerry Porter (103) (JAX) - Porter should be a favorite target of Jaguars QB David Garrard.

Roy Williams (104) (DET) - With Mike Martz now gone, the Lions will have to throw to their top two WR’s a whole lot just like the normal teams.

Patrick Crayton (81) (DAL) - Someone has to get Terry Glenn’s targets and with Crayton now the WR2, he very likely will.

Laveranues Coles (89) - Maybe that Brett Favre character will have an effect on Coles' numbers?
 
http://www.sportcrack.net/2008/08/magical-...wr-targets.html

one mans opinion and work

The Magical 110: Analyzing WR Targets

To be honest, I’ve never really paid much attention to targets. Don’t ask me why, I just didn’t. I knew about them, but I never really tried to put them in context -- probably because I was too lazy. When you do think about them though, the more targets a player gets, the more his chance is to succeed. The better his chance to succeed, the more points he’ll likely put up for your fantasy squad. It’s not that hard of a concept to wrap your mind around. If I can do it...

With the help of the Game Log Dominator (to which I have officially become addicted) I compiled a list of the top WR targets from 2002-2007 and separated them by year. After studying the list and getting a decent handle on the fluxations from year to year, I tried to find a mark off point. One hour and two slices of pizza later, I found one. At least, I think I found one.

That cut off point was 110 targets per year. Not knowing quite where I was going but too intrigued to stop, I calculated the minimum and maximum average receptions, yards and TD’s from 2002-2007 combined. I dropped the highest and lowest each year to get a more realistic sampling. I’m not entirely sure if that was mathematically correct, but it made sense at the time. So I did it.

Out of all the players who had at least 110 targets from 2002-2007, the minimum average was:

62 receptions, 790 receiving yards and 3 TD’s

A fair amount of 1 and 2 TD performances bogged the minimum down a bit, but it’s still an impressive line none-the-less. On the positive end, the maximum average was:

104 receptions, 1,444 receiving yards and 13 TD’s

I think I speak for everyone when I say I’d take that! The summation I eventually came to was that if you could predict the WR’s who had a good shot at getting at least 110 targets then you have a great shot at having that player produce a pretty respectable season, at worst.

But I didn’t stop there. On average over the 6 years, 27 WR’s managed to be targeted at least 110 times. In the interests of seeing the amount of players who broke into that list on average each year, I continued upon my statistical, math-complimented quest. Without even a calculator, mind you! If only my third grade teacher could see me now..

Two hours and two cigarettes later, I came up with the average of 10 players over the past six years who broke into or back onto that top 27/110 targets list each year. To get to the point of the purpose for the post, here are the 10 players who I don’t think will manage to acquire the 110 targets that they saw in 2007:

Derrick Mason (BAL) - With Steve McNair gone and rookie Ray Rice wowing the crowds, the Ravens very well may run a lot more than they will pass this year. Especially with either Troy Smith or Kyle Boller at QB.

Lee Evans (BUF) - Marshawn Lynch proved last year he could be a workhorse back and rookie WR James Hardy gives Trent Edwards another actual option besides Evans to throw to.

Reggie Brown (PHI) - King of RB targets, Brian Westbrook, will still see a massive amount of targets for a RB. DeSean Jackson will in turn steal some more targets away from Brown.

Marques Colston (NO) - Pass catching TE Jeremy Shockey should see his fair share of targets in 2008. The emergence of rookie WR Robert Meachem should as well.

Bobby Engram (SEA) - You can’t get targets if your not on the field.

Chris Chambers (SD) - This may be a long shot, but if Gates can return soon then he’ll resume his hoarding of the targets. LaDainian Tomlinson and Vincent Jackson won’t help Chambers totals either.

Shaun McDonald (DET) - No Mike Martz system? No targets.

Bernard Berrian (CHI) - I don’t think I need to go on a limb and say that the Vikings may run a lot this year. The more they run, the less targets Berrian will get.

Donald Driver (GB) - Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons to spread the targets around. Driver will get some, but not 110.

Hines Ward (PIT) - Santonio Holmes? Willie Parker? Rashard Mendenhall? Heath Miller? All will get targets that Hines Ward will not.

Who will the ten be that fill the vacancies you say? Ask and you shall receive! The 2007 target totals are in parentheses:

Anquan Boldin (99) (ARI) - Should get at least 110 targets no matter who ends up being the starting QB.

Calvin Johnson (95) (DET) - He’s going to get more and more targets as the years go by.

Santonio Holmes (85) (PIT) - With Hines Ward on the decline, Holmes will benefit from increased targets.

Ten Ginn Jr. (71) (MIA)- Ginn’s likely targets got a huge boost with the arrival of Chad Pennington.

Muhsin Muhammad (81) (CAR) - Muhammed should see a lot of targets in Steve Smith’s two-game absence and even some when he returns. He’ll get more if Jake Delhomme can stay healthy.

Andre Johnson (86) (HOU) - The only reason Johnson didn’t total 110 last year was because he was injured for 7 games.

Jerry Porter (103) (JAX) - Porter should be a favorite target of Jaguars QB David Garrard.

Roy Williams (104) (DET) - With Mike Martz now gone, the Lions will have to throw to their top two WR’s a whole lot just like the normal teams.

Patrick Crayton (81) (DAL) - Someone has to get Terry Glenn’s targets and with Crayton now the WR2, he very likely will.

Laveranues Coles (89) - Maybe that Brett Favre character will have an effect on Coles' numbers?
That's my site! :thanks:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I've come up with something decent here.

I looked at all WRs that had at least 400 receiving yards in any season from 2002-2006. Then I divided them into groups based on how many yards per game they had. Anyone over 70 yards per game was excluded, since they're too good to focus on. So I looked at the guys with 65.0-69.9 YPG, 60.0-64.9, 55.0-59.9..... to 25.0-29.9. I then looked at the 10 guys with the highest Y/T per game, and the 10 guys with the highest Y*T per game.

The table below shows the results.

Y/G T/G n+1 Y/G Y/G T/G n+1 Y/G65+ 67.4 6.8 39.9 68.3 9.4 52.360+ 61.7 6.5 51.1 62.9 9.0 63.555+ 57.5 5.8 43.5 58.9 8.3 46.950+ 51.8 5.6 49.9 53.2 8.3 45.445+ 46.7 5.1 41.9 47.9 6.9 55.140+ 43.6 4.6 50.7 42.9 7.2 48.435+ 37.8 4.0 35.1 37.8 6.2 29.330+ 32.4 3.5 30.5 33.4 5.7 27.025+ 28.3 3.0 27.8 27.5 4.6 26.7How does that table read? Look at the 45+ row. It states that of the WRs that averaged 45.0-49.9 YPG, the top 10 in yards per target (per game) averaged 46.7 yards per game that season and 5.1 targets per game. That's the high Y/T group. The (different) top 10 WRs in the high Y*T group averaged 47.9 yards per game, and averaged 6.9 targets per game. How did the two groups do the next season? The high Y/T group averaged 41.9 Y/G the next year; the high Y*T group averaged 55.1 Y/G the next year. So for the 45+ row, advantage Y*T over Y/T.For the most part, Y*T looks like a better predictor, at least among the WRs that averaged over 45 yards per game (that's 720 receiving yards). From 25-39.9 YPG (that's 400 to 638 receiving yards over 16 games), the Y/T group looks a little better. For example, in 2003, David Givens and Dez White both averaged 39 yards per game. White averaged 7.1 targets per game; Givens 4.1 targets per game. Givens averaged 58.3 YPG the next season, and White 23.1 YPG. Obviously that's just one example.

The sample sizes here aren't very big (10 of each group), so I'm skeptical to take any broad results. It appears that all else being equal, if you have two WRs with 800 receiving yards last season, there is strong evidence that the guy that had more targets is the better option for next year. If you have two WRs with 500 receiving yards, there's a bit of evidence to indicate that the guy that did it on fewer targets is the better option.
:thumbup: Can't argue with those numbers that is for sure.

Probably the best single post I have read on this message board. Good discussion JGalligan.

 

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