Tavon Austin - Upside (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

And how many of those guys had a worse supporting staff than Bradford? You're talking about guys throwing to Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, and AJ Green. Three of those guys are major running threats giving more one on one coverage to their WR's.

I don't think it's fair to make that comparison either.

We'll see what happens this season with another year in the system, another full offseason, a bolstered O line and weapons on offense. They added Jake Long, a nice interior lineman in the middle rounds, added the first WR off the board, a TE with a ton of potential, and another WR. It would seem that bashing this guy at this point is not a good idea. He has shown flashes and this year has everything in place to take that next step. The timing of the bashing this guy is going to come back with a bumpity bump during the season...

Steven Jackson was a better running threat than pretty much anyone on that list had outside of Ponder.

Tannehill/Weeden had situations that were at least as bad if not worse. The only thing Bradford did better than them was throw more often, and their seasons weren't even regarded as particularly good (many thought Cleveland should be drafting another QB early this year).

Bradford's rookie season was a mirage on people not looking at the whole picture. 5.95ypa is awful, especially given a 60% completion percentage and the amount of time his team spent behind. He racked up a bunch of completions on high percentage check-downs against soft defenses that were protecting a lead and giving stuff up underneath.

People's opinions are biased by what they originally expected out of a guy. Even a schlub like Christian Ponder has done as much as Bradford has on a per attempt basis, but people hated the Ponder pick from the get-go so he has to be replaced immediately while people liked Bradford so he just needs more time and consistency around him (as if many of the other guys listed above have had much consistency around them). Bradford's rookie season might have looked good and bought him five years to develop in the NFL of 15 years ago. Nowadays, QBs get vetted out pretty quickly and by modern standards Bradford has had a LONG time to get things headed in the right direction, but has failed to do so.

 

[TheFanatic]

And how many of those guys had a worse supporting staff than Bradford? You're talking about guys throwing to Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, and AJ Green. Three of those guys are major running threats giving more one on one coverage to their WR's.

I don't think it's fair to make that comparison either.

We'll see what happens this season with another year in the system, another full offseason, a bolstered O line and weapons on offense. They added Jake Long, a nice interior lineman in the middle rounds, added the first WR off the board, a TE with a ton of potential, and another WR. It would seem that bashing this guy at this point is not a good idea. He has shown flashes and this year has everything in place to take that next step. The timing of the bashing this guy is going to come back with a bumpity bump during the season...

Steven Jackson was a better running threat than pretty much anyone on that list had outside of Ponder.

Tannehill/Weeden had situations that were at least as bad if not worse. The only thing Bradford did better than them was throw more often, and their seasons weren't even regarded as particularly good (many thought Cleveland should be drafting another QB early this year).

Bradford's rookie season was a mirage on people not looking at the whole picture. 5.95ypa is awful, especially given a 60% completion percentage and the amount of time his team spent behind. He racked up a bunch of completions on high percentage check-downs against soft defenses that were protecting a lead and giving stuff up underneath.

People's opinions are biased by what they originally expected out of a guy. Even a schlub like Christian Ponder has done as much as Bradford has on a per attempt basis, but people hated the Ponder pick from the get-go so he has to be replaced immediately while people liked Bradford so he just needs more time and consistency around him (as if many of the other guys listed above have had much consistency around them). Bradford's rookie season might have looked good and bought him five years to develop in the NFL of 15 years ago. Nowadays, QBs get vetted out pretty quickly and by modern standards Bradford has had a LONG time to get things headed in the right direction, but has failed to do so.

Jeff Fisher had a number of suiters for a head coaching gig. One of the big reasons he chose St. Louis was Sam Bradford.

I'm going to go ahead and trust Jeff Fisher here.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield. Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp. Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.

Rosco Parish? TY Hilton? Definitely Desean JacksonI have to check the numbers but at best I would absolutly cap him at Desean Jackson. Desean can't even be used on teams or across the middle anymore because of his size. Turned into a one trick pony.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield. Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp. Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.

Rosco Parish? TY Hilton? Definitely Desean JacksonI have to check the numbers but at best I would absolutly cap him at Desean Jackson. Desean can't even be used on teams or across the middle anymore because of his size. Turned into a one trick pony.

Desean was always a one-trick pony, other than end-arounds and such. He was never great after the catch unless it involved running in a straight line. Punt returns are different, he's much more dynamic there.

Tavon Austin and Desean Jackson have completely different skill-sets. Just because Tavon put up a similar, blazing fast 40-time and is also small doesn't make them the same guy. They aren't even built the same, at all.

 

[tdmills]

And how many of those guys had a worse supporting staff than Bradford? You're talking about guys throwing to Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, and AJ Green. Three of those guys are major running threats giving more one on one coverage to their WR's.

I don't think it's fair to make that comparison either.

We'll see what happens this season with another year in the system, another full offseason, a bolstered O line and weapons on offense. They added Jake Long, a nice interior lineman in the middle rounds, added the first WR off the board, a TE with a ton of potential, and another WR. It would seem that bashing this guy at this point is not a good idea. He has shown flashes and this year has everything in place to take that next step. The timing of the bashing this guy is going to come back with a bumpity bump during the season...

Steven Jackson was a better running threat than pretty much anyone on that list had outside of Ponder.

Tannehill/Weeden had situations that were at least as bad if not worse. The only thing Bradford did better than them was throw more often, and their seasons weren't even regarded as particularly good (many thought Cleveland should be drafting another QB early this year).

Bradford's rookie season was a mirage on people not looking at the whole picture. 5.95ypa is awful, especially given a 60% completion percentage and the amount of time his team spent behind. He racked up a bunch of completions on high percentage check-downs against soft defenses that were protecting a lead and giving stuff up underneath.

People's opinions are biased by what they originally expected out of a guy. Even a schlub like Christian Ponder has done as much as Bradford has on a per attempt basis, but people hated the Ponder pick from the get-go so he has to be replaced immediately while people liked Bradford so he just needs more time and consistency around him (as if many of the other guys listed above have had much consistency around them). Bradford's rookie season might have looked good and bought him five years to develop in the NFL of 15 years ago. Nowadays, QBs get vetted out pretty quickly and by modern standards Bradford has had a LONG time to get things headed in the right direction, but has failed to do so.

Jeff Fisher had a number of suiters for a head coaching gig. One of the big reasons he chose St. Louis was Sam Bradford.

I'm going to go ahead and trust Jeff Fisher here.

You went from great/history rookie #'s to Jeff Fischer trusts him so I do. They don't correlate!

 

[TheFanatic]

And how many of those guys had a worse supporting staff than Bradford? You're talking about guys throwing to Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, and AJ Green. Three of those guys are major running threats giving more one on one coverage to their WR's.

I don't think it's fair to make that comparison either.

We'll see what happens this season with another year in the system, another full offseason, a bolstered O line and weapons on offense. They added Jake Long, a nice interior lineman in the middle rounds, added the first WR off the board, a TE with a ton of potential, and another WR. It would seem that bashing this guy at this point is not a good idea. He has shown flashes and this year has everything in place to take that next step. The timing of the bashing this guy is going to come back with a bumpity bump during the season...

Steven Jackson was a better running threat than pretty much anyone on that list had outside of Ponder.

Tannehill/Weeden had situations that were at least as bad if not worse. The only thing Bradford did better than them was throw more often, and their seasons weren't even regarded as particularly good (many thought Cleveland should be drafting another QB early this year).

Bradford's rookie season was a mirage on people not looking at the whole picture. 5.95ypa is awful, especially given a 60% completion percentage and the amount of time his team spent behind. He racked up a bunch of completions on high percentage check-downs against soft defenses that were protecting a lead and giving stuff up underneath.

People's opinions are biased by what they originally expected out of a guy. Even a schlub like Christian Ponder has done as much as Bradford has on a per attempt basis, but people hated the Ponder pick from the get-go so he has to be replaced immediately while people liked Bradford so he just needs more time and consistency around him (as if many of the other guys listed above have had much consistency around them). Bradford's rookie season might have looked good and bought him five years to develop in the NFL of 15 years ago. Nowadays, QBs get vetted out pretty quickly and by modern standards Bradford has had a LONG time to get things headed in the right direction, but has failed to do so.

Jeff Fisher had a number of suiters for a head coaching gig. One of the big reasons he chose St. Louis was Sam Bradford.

I'm going to go ahead and trust Jeff Fisher here.

You went from great/history rookie #'s to Jeff Fischer trusts him so I do. They don't correlate!

I stand by both. Considering who he's had to throw to and the turnover in coaches, OC's and QB coaches (or none for one year), and a guy who could've taken a bunch of jobs in the NFL choosing this one because of the QB. But that's just me. I'm overly trusting like that....

 

[ShaHBucks]

Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield. Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp. Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.

Rosco Parish? TY Hilton? Definitely Desean JacksonI have to check the numbers but at best I would absolutly cap him at Desean Jackson. Desean can't even be used on teams or across the middle anymore because of his size. Turned into a one trick pony.

Desean was always a one-trick pony, other than end-arounds and such. He was never great after the catch unless it involved running in a straight line. Punt returns are different, he's much more dynamic there.

Tavon Austin and Desean Jackson have completely different skill-sets. Just because Tavon put up a similar, blazing fast 40-time and is also small doesn't make them the same guy. They aren't even built the same, at all.

What's so different? Unless you think Austin will be taking a bunch of carries without being snapped in half, I don't see too big of a difference. The comparison is he will have his moments followed by injuries and disappointments. My only real interest would be to flip him on my best assessment.

4.3 isn't as special as it was when Desean ran it. I can name a dozen small recievers with 4.3 speed in the last two drafts alone.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Jeff Fisher had a number of suiters for a head coaching gig. One of the big reasons he chose St. Louis was Sam Bradford.

I'm going to go ahead and trust Jeff Fisher here.

Answer: Some guy in the NFL thinks it and he's smarter than any of us.

Question: What is the weak fallback argument commonly used on FBG when facts and logical argument fail to support the point trying to be made?

Seriously, if we're going to go down this road we may as well just rank the rookies in the order they were drafted and the vets by the cost of their salary.

Besides, this is the same Jeff Fisher that has put together a whopping 6 winning seasons in 18 years. We're not talking about Bill Belichick trading into the first round to get his new starting QB here. That's not even to mention that Fisher's primary reason for choosing St. Louis was that they were the only ones willing to give him personnel control, and those words are straight from his mouth. I'm sure STL offering the most money didn't hurt either.

Bottom line: The idea that Fisher chose STL primarily because of Bradford is untrue, and even if it were true it would still be irrelevant to this discussion.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield. Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp. Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.

Rosco Parish? TY Hilton? Definitely Desean JacksonI have to check the numbers but at best I would absolutly cap him at Desean Jackson. Desean can't even be used on teams or across the middle anymore because of his size. Turned into a one trick pony.

Desean was always a one-trick pony, other than end-arounds and such. He was never great after the catch unless it involved running in a straight line. Punt returns are different, he's much more dynamic there. Tavon Austin and Desean Jackson have completely different skill-sets. Just because Tavon put up a similar, blazing fast 40-time and is also small doesn't make them the same guy. They aren't even built the same, at all.

What's so different? Unless you think Austin will be taking a bunch of carries without being snapped in half, I don't see too big of a difference. The comparison is he will have his moments followed by injuries and disappointments. My only real interest would be to flip him on my best assessment. 4.3 isn't as special as it was when Desean ran it. I can name a dozen small recievers with 4.3 speed in the last two drafts alone.

What's so different? Watch them both play, they are completely different guys. Their games are nothing alike. Since when do similar size/speed guys all of a sudden have the same skill-set? As I said, its worth noting that they aren't even built the same way.But aren't you the guy who has Latavius Murray as his top RB because of his size/speed, and are similarly high on Knile Davis for the same reason, regardless of the actual football skills they bring to the table? If so (and I could be misremembering) then I am not surprised in the least that you look at a couple measurements and assume Austin and Jackson share the same skill-set, or are similar players.

 

[CR69]

Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield. Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp. Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.

Rosco Parish? TY Hilton? Definitely Desean JacksonI have to check the numbers but at best I would absolutly cap him at Desean Jackson. Desean can't even be used on teams or across the middle anymore because of his size. Turned into a one trick pony.

Desean was always a one-trick pony, other than end-arounds and such. He was never great after the catch unless it involved running in a straight line. Punt returns are different, he's much more dynamic there.

Tavon Austin and Desean Jackson have completely different skill-sets. Just because Tavon put up a similar, blazing fast 40-time and is also small doesn't make them the same guy. They aren't even built the same, at all.

What's so different? Unless you think Austin will be taking a bunch of carries without being snapped in half, I don't see too big of a difference. The comparison is he will have his moments followed by injuries and disappointments. My only real interest would be to flip him on my best assessment.

4.3 isn't as special as it was when Desean ran it. I can name a dozen small recievers with 4.3 speed in the last two drafts alone.

Why does this keep getting thrown out there? As has been said probably 8 times in this thread, the guy has never missed a game or even a practice. Take that in for a minute. Not a single missed practice in college or high school. Suddenly he's going to get into the NFL and become fragile? I don't get it. Most season or career threatening injuries are either concussions, or freak injuries like Achilles and ACLs.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield. Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp. Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.

Rosco Parish? TY Hilton? Definitely Desean JacksonI have to check the numbers but at best I would absolutly cap him at Desean Jackson. Desean can't even be used on teams or across the middle anymore because of his size. Turned into a one trick pony.

Desean was always a one-trick pony, other than end-arounds and such. He was never great after the catch unless it involved running in a straight line. Punt returns are different, he's much more dynamic there.

Tavon Austin and Desean Jackson have completely different skill-sets. Just because Tavon put up a similar, blazing fast 40-time and is also small doesn't make them the same guy. They aren't even built the same, at all.

What's so different? Unless you think Austin will be taking a bunch of carries without being snapped in half, I don't see too big of a difference. The comparison is he will have his moments followed by injuries and disappointments. My only real interest would be to flip him on my best assessment.

4.3 isn't as special as it was when Desean ran it. I can name a dozen small recievers with 4.3 speed in the last two drafts alone.

Why does this keep getting thrown out there? As has been said probably 8 times in this thread, the guy has never missed a game or even a practice. Take that in for a minute. Not a single missed practice in college or high school. Suddenly he's going to get into the NFL and become fragile? I don't get it. Most season or career threatening injuries are either concussions, or freak injuries like Achilles and ACLs.

Sounds like Russell Westbrook. I thought the media jinxed him this year.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield. Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp. Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.

Rosco Parish? TY Hilton? Definitely Desean JacksonI have to check the numbers but at best I would absolutly cap him at Desean Jackson. Desean can't even be used on teams or across the middle anymore because of his size. Turned into a one trick pony.

Desean was always a one-trick pony, other than end-arounds and such. He was never great after the catch unless it involved running in a straight line. Punt returns are different, he's much more dynamic there. Tavon Austin and Desean Jackson have completely different skill-sets. Just because Tavon put up a similar, blazing fast 40-time and is also small doesn't make them the same guy. They aren't even built the same, at all.

What's so different? Unless you think Austin will be taking a bunch of carries without being snapped in half, I don't see too big of a difference. The comparison is he will have his moments followed by injuries and disappointments. My only real interest would be to flip him on my best assessment. 4.3 isn't as special as it was when Desean ran it. I can name a dozen small recievers with 4.3 speed in the last two drafts alone.

What's so different? Watch them both play, they are completely different guys. Their games are nothing alike. Since when do similar size/speed guys all of a sudden have the same skill-set? As I said, its worth noting that they aren't even built the same way.But aren't you the guy who has Latavius Murray as his top RB because of his size/speed, and are similarly high on Knile Davis for the same reason, regardless of the actual football skills they bring to the table? If so (and I could be misremembering) then I am not surprised in the least that you look at a couple measurements and assume Austin and Jackson share the same skill-set, or are similar players.

I'm not going to compare a player to wes welker unless he's built like wes welker or percy harvin like everyone likes to say. If he tries to duplicte Harvin in the NFL he will be the poster boy for concussions like Javid Best. Him and Desean are seperated by a inch and 5 pounds. That's just a start. I watched Desean work in the West coast offense and on teams, though he could make plays, I never thought his body would hold up. Desean was used exactly like Austin, aside from the carries, up until his concussion/aligator arms. I'm not assuming anything, it's an opinion. Who would you compare him to? Pardon me for thinking than an elite athlete who was productive in college might have a shot to stick in the NFL. I'm so stupid

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I don't understand why Harvin is seen as being out of reach as a comp because he's "big enough" to take the hits...Harvin: 26.8 BMI (if you use 192 lbs, which I've seen places)Harvin: 25.7 BMI (if you use 184 lbs, which is also all over the place, including wiki, yahoo sports, MFL, and rotoworldAustin: 26.5 BMISo Austin's BMI is right around Harvin's, if not higher, depending on what their real playing weights are, which we'll never know. BMI is not conclusive on its own, but as he's not particularly top heavy it shows that he's put together well for a guy his height. Really well.Yes, Harvin is heavier and bigger now than he was coming out (probably), having been in an NFL strength program for years. Austin will bulk up as well. And again, he is put together pretty well. As far as I can tell Harvin is not especially thick in the legs even compared to Austin, though he has a more well-developed upper body. And Austin still put up 14 reps of 225. If you look at pictures of Austin his last few years he's become progressively more built up top. I'm not sure he'll ever have Harvin's biceps, but I'm also not sure that matters at all. A couple years ago Tavon was scrawny as hell and did resemble Desean a lot. He's much thicker now. Found this on another forum, ironically in a thread from 2009 defending Harvin when HE came out (that's right folks, tons of people doubted Harvin and whether he could actually play WR in the NFL...and if he was big enough):

No need to get so defensive. If your skeptical of him because of his route running, that's understandable. But skeptical because of his height-weight is ignorant of basic facts in the NFL. Football Outsiders did a study of wide receivers and found that, with little exception, good NFL wide receivers fall into one of four categories. Slight (72 inches-75.5 inches) (25-26-.25 BMI) Short (68.5 inches-72.0 inches) (26.2-27.8 BMI) Tall (74.5-77.35 inches) (26.2-27.8 BMI) Thick (71.2 inches-74.7 inches) (28.2-29.4 inches)

Interestingly, Austin falls right into that Short category--68.5 inches exactly, and 26.5 BMI.No reason to think Austin can't take the hits, especially when you take into account that he has a penchant for avoiding the big hit and preserving/taking care of his body. Oh, and that he's never been injured.So then the question becomes: how many targets does he get? The Rams loved him in the draft and Bradford is as dink-and-dunk as they come. Do the math.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Thick (71.2 inches-74.7 inches) (28.2-29.4 inches)

Are those Visanthe Shiancoe's measurements?

 

[EBF]

He's a litmus test. How small can you get and still be a prime time player? He's on the low end of the scale in terms of height and BMI. Either one of those things wouldn't be scary on its own, but put them together and it might add a layer of risk. He also has no vertical leap and will be largely useless on jump balls and contested catches. Flipside is that he's got the rare speed to compensate. I had the opportunity to get him at 1.02 in a rookie draft and passed. I can't fault anyone for taking him that high, but would rather roll the dice on more conventional players. I thought CFN's take on him was interesting:

7. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 5-9, 175 Proj. 2
Positives: Fast, fast, fast, fast, FAST. Great with the ball in his hands in a variety of ways and is always able to come up with a big burst of speed whenever he gets the chance. … A great runner in an open field with the potential to become a special slot receiver. He’s going to be uncoverable at times. … Always producing. He doesn’t need a lot of room to make one cut and fly.

Negatives: Size is going to be a problem. He was able to get by in college, but he won’t be able to take a licking at the next level going across the middle. … He’ll be used as a kick and punt returner, but his future will be as a receiver. He needs to work on becoming a full-time wideout, and while he could be a difference maker, it’ll be as a fun toy to play with. … He’ll be limited in what he can do for a passing game. He’s strictly an inside target.

Really, What’s He Going To Do In The NFL? He’ll be a flash of lightning who’ll take over a game or two on his own. However, he’s not going to be a superstar receiver who’ll make ten grabs a game.

They seem to view him as more of a niche player. With the Rams spending such a high pick on him, it stands to reason that they might be inclined to force feed him the ball. It will be an interesting experiment to monitor. I'm glad I'm not invested in it though.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

His BMI is fine, though, for a WR. I just showed that above.

 

[tdmills]

And how many of those guys had a worse supporting staff than Bradford? You're talking about guys throwing to Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, and AJ Green. Three of those guys are major running threats giving more one on one coverage to their WR's.

I don't think it's fair to make that comparison either.

We'll see what happens this season with another year in the system, another full offseason, a bolstered O line and weapons on offense. They added Jake Long, a nice interior lineman in the middle rounds, added the first WR off the board, a TE with a ton of potential, and another WR. It would seem that bashing this guy at this point is not a good idea. He has shown flashes and this year has everything in place to take that next step. The timing of the bashing this guy is going to come back with a bumpity bump during the season...

Steven Jackson was a better running threat than pretty much anyone on that list had outside of Ponder.

Tannehill/Weeden had situations that were at least as bad if not worse. The only thing Bradford did better than them was throw more often, and their seasons weren't even regarded as particularly good (many thought Cleveland should be drafting another QB early this year).

Bradford's rookie season was a mirage on people not looking at the whole picture. 5.95ypa is awful, especially given a 60% completion percentage and the amount of time his team spent behind. He racked up a bunch of completions on high percentage check-downs against soft defenses that were protecting a lead and giving stuff up underneath.

People's opinions are biased by what they originally expected out of a guy. Even a schlub like Christian Ponder has done as much as Bradford has on a per attempt basis, but people hated the Ponder pick from the get-go so he has to be replaced immediately while people liked Bradford so he just needs more time and consistency around him (as if many of the other guys listed above have had much consistency around them). Bradford's rookie season might have looked good and bought him five years to develop in the NFL of 15 years ago. Nowadays, QBs get vetted out pretty quickly and by modern standards Bradford has had a LONG time to get things headed in the right direction, but has failed to do so.

Jeff Fisher had a number of suiters for a head coaching gig. One of the big reasons he chose St. Louis was Sam Bradford.

I'm going to go ahead and trust Jeff Fisher here.

You went from great/history rookie #'s to Jeff Fischer trusts him so I do. They don't correlate!

I stand by both. Considering who he's had to throw to and the turnover in coaches, OC's and QB coaches (or none for one year), and a guy who could've taken a bunch of jobs in the NFL choosing this one because of the QB. But that's just me. I'm overly trusting like that....

You can't continually change the goalline. If you do, it loses credibility and makes me not want to research any debate with you in the future.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Austin projects to put up Sproles type numbers - 80-100 catches, 50-75 carries, 8-10 TDs. He'll probably have a higher yards per catch because he'll run more downfield routes than Sproles.

But, Sproles is an RB and Austin is a WR, you might say.

In terms of 2012 PPG, Here are the closest WRs to Sproles in a PPR:

Reggie Wayne (16.96)

Eric Decker (16.84)

Roddy White (16.82)

Darren Sproles (16.63)

Julio Jones (16.41)

Vincent Jackson (16.28)

Marques Colston (16.15)

 

[TheFanatic]

And how many of those guys had a worse supporting staff than Bradford? You're talking about guys throwing to Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, and AJ Green. Three of those guys are major running threats giving more one on one coverage to their WR's.

I don't think it's fair to make that comparison either.

We'll see what happens this season with another year in the system, another full offseason, a bolstered O line and weapons on offense. They added Jake Long, a nice interior lineman in the middle rounds, added the first WR off the board, a TE with a ton of potential, and another WR. It would seem that bashing this guy at this point is not a good idea. He has shown flashes and this year has everything in place to take that next step. The timing of the bashing this guy is going to come back with a bumpity bump during the season...

Steven Jackson was a better running threat than pretty much anyone on that list had outside of Ponder.

Tannehill/Weeden had situations that were at least as bad if not worse. The only thing Bradford did better than them was throw more often, and their seasons weren't even regarded as particularly good (many thought Cleveland should be drafting another QB early this year).

Bradford's rookie season was a mirage on people not looking at the whole picture. 5.95ypa is awful, especially given a 60% completion percentage and the amount of time his team spent behind. He racked up a bunch of completions on high percentage check-downs against soft defenses that were protecting a lead and giving stuff up underneath.

People's opinions are biased by what they originally expected out of a guy. Even a schlub like Christian Ponder has done as much as Bradford has on a per attempt basis, but people hated the Ponder pick from the get-go so he has to be replaced immediately while people liked Bradford so he just needs more time and consistency around him (as if many of the other guys listed above have had much consistency around them). Bradford's rookie season might have looked good and bought him five years to develop in the NFL of 15 years ago. Nowadays, QBs get vetted out pretty quickly and by modern standards Bradford has had a LONG time to get things headed in the right direction, but has failed to do so.

Jeff Fisher had a number of suiters for a head coaching gig. One of the big reasons he chose St. Louis was Sam Bradford.

I'm going to go ahead and trust Jeff Fisher here.

You went from great/history rookie #'s to Jeff Fischer trusts him so I do. They don't correlate!

I stand by both. Considering who he's had to throw to and the turnover in coaches, OC's and QB coaches (or none for one year), and a guy who could've taken a bunch of jobs in the NFL choosing this one because of the QB. But that's just me. I'm overly trusting like that....

You can't continually change the goalline. If you do, it loses credibility and makes me not want to research any debate with you in the future.

Uh, not even close. I have been preaching the same thing over and over on Bradford. I have not wavered at all. Let me sum up so you can keep up and stop whining about changing the goal line:

+ New OC every year but last year.

+ New QB coach or no QB coach every year but last year

+ No WR's except for Danny Amendola his entire career

+ Abysmal OLine play until last year

= a big mess for the QB

On top of that, Jeff Fisher also said from his mouth that one of the big selling points in St. Louis was Bradford.

Oh, and his YPC is low? When the only WR worth anything is Amendola, of course it's going to be low. The guy catches the ball and falls down (or gets injured!). And with that OLine, you would dunk it off to Amendola too in order to keep your head on your shoulders...

I predict that he will shine this year. We can continue to argue minutia or sit back and let the season play out and revisit then...

 

[tdmills]

Austin projects to put up Sproles type numbers - 80-100 catches, 50-75 carries, 8-10 TDs. He'll probably have a higher yards per catch because he'll run more downfield routes than Sproles.

But, Sproles is an RB and Austin is a WR, you might say.

In terms of 2012 PPG, Here are the closest WRs to Sproles in a PPR:

Reggie Wayne (16.96)

Eric Decker (16.84)

Roddy White (16.82)

Darren Sproles (16.63)

Julio Jones (16.41)

Vincent Jackson (16.28)

Marques Colston (16.15)

I think the reception total is high, at least in year one. Not many rookies come straight into the league and light it up. I could see it more in the 60-85 range.

Do you think the Rams can have a concentrated effort of touches to Austin with all the money they spent on Jared Cook, plus recent draft pick investments in: Pettis, Quick, Pead, Givens, Richardson, Bailey, Stacy?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Austin projects to put up Sproles type numbers - 80-100 catches, 50-75 carries, 8-10 TDs. He'll probably have a higher yards per catch because he'll run more downfield routes than Sproles.

But, Sproles is an RB and Austin is a WR, you might say.

In terms of 2012 PPG, Here are the closest WRs to Sproles in a PPR:

Reggie Wayne (16.96)

Eric Decker (16.84)

Roddy White (16.82)

Darren Sproles (16.63)

Julio Jones (16.41)

Vincent Jackson (16.28)

Marques Colston (16.15)

I think the reception total is high, at least in year one. Not many rookies come straight into the league and light it up. I could see it more in the 60-85 range.

Do you think the Rams can have a concentrated effort of touches to Austin with all the money they spent on Jared Cook, plus recent draft pick investments in: Pettis, Quick, Pead, Givens, Richardson, Bailey, Stacy?

their concentrated effort to land him in the draft should lead to concentrated effort to get the ball in his hands. only cook has nearly as much tied up in terms of team investment.

 

[pantherclub]

Austin projects to put up Sproles type numbers - 80-100 catches, 50-75 carries, 8-10 TDs. He'll probably have a higher yards per catch because he'll run more downfield routes than Sproles.

But, Sproles is an RB and Austin is a WR, you might say.

In terms of 2012 PPG, Here are the closest WRs to Sproles in a PPR:

Reggie Wayne (16.96)

Eric Decker (16.84)

Roddy White (16.82)

Darren Sproles (16.63)

Julio Jones (16.41)

Vincent Jackson (16.28)

Marques Colston (16.15)

no offense but those numbers are insane. No way he sniffs that.

 

[tdmills]

Austin projects to put up Sproles type numbers - 80-100 catches, 50-75 carries, 8-10 TDs. He'll probably have a higher yards per catch because he'll run more downfield routes than Sproles.

But, Sproles is an RB and Austin is a WR, you might say.

In terms of 2012 PPG, Here are the closest WRs to Sproles in a PPR:

Reggie Wayne (16.96)

Eric Decker (16.84)

Roddy White (16.82)

Darren Sproles (16.63)

Julio Jones (16.41)

Vincent Jackson (16.28)

Marques Colston (16.15)

I think the reception total is high, at least in year one. Not many rookies come straight into the league and light it up. I could see it more in the 60-85 range.

Do you think the Rams can have a concentrated effort of touches to Austin with all the money they spent on Jared Cook, plus recent draft pick investments in: Pettis, Quick, Pead, Givens, Richardson, Bailey, Stacy?

their concentrated effort to land him in the draft should lead to concentrated effort to get the ball in his hands. only cook has nearly as much tied up in terms of team investment.

Fair enough, it looks like a jumbled mess to figure out the rest though. Care to share your projections?

Looking at last year:

Bradford was 328/551 3702 21 TD

Top 4 in yards looked like this.

Chris Givens 81 targets, 42 receptions 698 yards 3 TD

B. Gibson 82 targets, 51 receptions 691 yards 5 TD

Amendola 101 targets, 63 receptions 666 yards 3 TD

Kendricks 64 targets, 42 receptions 519 yards 4 TD

 

[gianmarco]

Austin projects to put up Sproles type numbers - 80-100 catches, 50-75 carries, 8-10 TDs. He'll probably have a higher yards per catch because he'll run more downfield routes than Sproles.

But, Sproles is an RB and Austin is a WR, you might say.

In terms of 2012 PPG, Here are the closest WRs to Sproles in a PPR:

Reggie Wayne (16.96)

Eric Decker (16.84)

Roddy White (16.82)

Darren Sproles (16.63)

Julio Jones (16.41)

Vincent Jackson (16.28)

Marques Colston (16.15)

no offense but those numbers are insane. No way he sniffs that.

In 2012, Sproles had:

48 carries for 244 rushing yards and 1 TD (5.1 ypc). He also had 75 catches for 667 yards and 7 TDs (8.9 ypc).

This was done while supporting an 85 catch TE in Graham, an 83 catch WR in Colston, a 65 catch WR in Moore, and another 40 catches by Pierre Thomas. It was also in addition to a combined 300 carries between Ingram, Thomas and Ivory (260 between Ingram/Thomas).

Now, St. Louis isn't New Orleans and Bradford isn't Brees, but the Rams also don't have anything nearly as established as the Saints offensive players. Richardson, Pead, Quick, GIvens....all 2nd year players. The most experienced is Cook.

Given their commitment in the draft, the loss of their bellcow Jackson, and relative inexperience everywhere else, I would be shocked if Austin doesn't become the focal point of the offense. Those numbers work out to 3 carries/game and 5 receptions/game. If he remains healthy (which isn't nearly as big a concern for me as it is for others), not only are those numbers not insane, but could also be on the conservative side.

 

[TheFanatic]

Austin projects to put up Sproles type numbers - 80-100 catches, 50-75 carries, 8-10 TDs. He'll probably have a higher yards per catch because he'll run more downfield routes than Sproles.

But, Sproles is an RB and Austin is a WR, you might say.

In terms of 2012 PPG, Here are the closest WRs to Sproles in a PPR:

Reggie Wayne (16.96)

Eric Decker (16.84)

Roddy White (16.82)

Darren Sproles (16.63)

Julio Jones (16.41)

Vincent Jackson (16.28)

Marques Colston (16.15)

no offense but those numbers are insane. No way he sniffs that.

In 2012, Sproles had:

48 carries for 244 rushing yards and 1 TD (5.1 ypc). He also had 75 catches for 667 yards and 7 TDs (8.9 ypc).

This was done while supporting an 85 catch TE in Graham, an 83 catch WR in Colston, a 65 catch WR in Moore, and another 40 catches by Pierre Thomas. It was also in addition to a combined 300 carries between Ingram, Thomas and Ivory (260 between Ingram/Thomas).

Now, St. Louis isn't New Orleans and Bradford isn't Brees, but the Rams also don't have anything nearly as established as the Saints offensive players. Richardson, Pead, Quick, GIvens....all 2nd year players. The most experienced is Cook.

Given their commitment in the draft, the loss of their bellcow Jackson, and relative inexperience everywhere else, I would be shocked if Austin doesn't become the focal point of the offense. Those numbers work out to 3 carries/game and 5 receptions/game. If he remains healthy (which isn't nearly as big a concern for me as it is for others), not only are those numbers not insane, but could also be on the conservative side.

But, but, but, this draft is weak. But, but, Sam Bradford Sucks. But, but, Jeff Fisher only has six winning seasons....

 

[pantherclub]

Austin is a rookie. A 174 lb rookie.

You are comparing St Louis and NO.

If you think that is conservative then Austin should be a late first or early 2nd pick. Are you willing to draft him that high?

 

[TheFanatic]

Austin is a rookie. A 174 lb rookie.

You are comparing St Louis and NO.

If you think that is conservative then Austin should be a late first or early 2nd pick. Are you willing to draft him that high?

I don't think Gian does redraft leagues...,.

 

[tdmills]

And how many of those guys had a worse supporting staff than Bradford? You're talking about guys throwing to Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, and AJ Green. Three of those guys are major running threats giving more one on one coverage to their WR's.

I don't think it's fair to make that comparison either.

We'll see what happens this season with another year in the system, another full offseason, a bolstered O line and weapons on offense. They added Jake Long, a nice interior lineman in the middle rounds, added the first WR off the board, a TE with a ton of potential, and another WR. It would seem that bashing this guy at this point is not a good idea. He has shown flashes and this year has everything in place to take that next step. The timing of the bashing this guy is going to come back with a bumpity bump during the season...

Steven Jackson was a better running threat than pretty much anyone on that list had outside of Ponder.

Tannehill/Weeden had situations that were at least as bad if not worse. The only thing Bradford did better than them was throw more often, and their seasons weren't even regarded as particularly good (many thought Cleveland should be drafting another QB early this year).

Bradford's rookie season was a mirage on people not looking at the whole picture. 5.95ypa is awful, especially given a 60% completion percentage and the amount of time his team spent behind. He racked up a bunch of completions on high percentage check-downs against soft defenses that were protecting a lead and giving stuff up underneath.

People's opinions are biased by what they originally expected out of a guy. Even a schlub like Christian Ponder has done as much as Bradford has on a per attempt basis, but people hated the Ponder pick from the get-go so he has to be replaced immediately while people liked Bradford so he just needs more time and consistency around him (as if many of the other guys listed above have had much consistency around them). Bradford's rookie season might have looked good and bought him five years to develop in the NFL of 15 years ago. Nowadays, QBs get vetted out pretty quickly and by modern standards Bradford has had a LONG time to get things headed in the right direction, but has failed to do so.

Jeff Fisher had a number of suiters for a head coaching gig. One of the big reasons he chose St. Louis was Sam Bradford.

I'm going to go ahead and trust Jeff Fisher here.

You went from great/history rookie #'s to Jeff Fischer trusts him so I do. They don't correlate!

I stand by both. Considering who he's had to throw to and the turnover in coaches, OC's and QB coaches (or none for one year), and a guy who could've taken a bunch of jobs in the NFL choosing this one because of the QB. But that's just me. I'm overly trusting like that....

You can't continually change the goalline. If you do, it loses credibility and makes me not want to research any debate with you in the future.

Uh, not even close. I have been preaching the same thing over and over on Bradford. I have not wavered at all. Let me sum up so you can keep up and stop whining about changing the goal line:

+ New OC every year but last year.

+ New QB coach or no QB coach every year but last year

+ No WR's except for Danny Amendola his entire career

+ Abysmal OLine play until last year

= a big mess for the QB

On top of that, Jeff Fisher also said from his mouth that one of the big selling points in St. Louis was Bradford.

Oh, and his YPC is low? When the only WR worth anything is Amendola, of course it's going to be low. The guy catches the ball and falls down (or gets injured!). And with that OLine, you would dunk it off to Amendola too in order to keep your head on your shoulders...

I predict that he will shine this year. We can continue to argue minutia or sit back and let the season play out and revisit then...

Our conversation in order:

Me-"Bradford/Rams isn't a great QB situation (for Austin)"

You-"He had a great/historic rookie season"

Me-Brought up every QB that was thrown into the starting role the past few seasons, shows Bradford wasn't historic at all.

You-weapons/OL/coaching issues and you trust Jeff Fishers judgement.

If you want to go back to the debate the original statement of "the Rams are a great QB/passing situation(top 5-8)", that's fine. But i'm not interested in all these twists and turns.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

In 2012, Sproles had:

48 carries for 244 rushing yards and 1 TD (5.1 ypc). He also had 75 catches for 667 yards and 7 TDs (8.9 ypc).

This was done while supporting an 85 catch TE in Graham, an 83 catch WR in Colston, a 65 catch WR in Moore, and another 40 catches by Pierre Thomas. It was also in addition to a combined 300 carries between Ingram, Thomas and Ivory (260 between Ingram/Thomas).

Now, St. Louis isn't New Orleans and Bradford isn't Brees, but the Rams also don't have anything nearly as established as the Saints offensive players. Richardson, Pead, Quick, GIvens....all 2nd year players. The most experienced is Cook.

Given their commitment in the draft, the loss of their bellcow Jackson, and relative inexperience everywhere else, I would be shocked if Austin doesn't become the focal point of the offense. Those numbers work out to 3 carries/game and 5 receptions/game. If he remains healthy (which isn't nearly as big a concern for me as it is for others), not only are those numbers not insane, but could also be on the conservative side.

...On the Saints

The Rams have about 100 less completions, 1500 less yards, and 25 less touchdowns to divy out amongst their players.

Lots of teams try to use players in a Sproles type role. Not lots of them churn out good fantasy producers out of it because they're not New Orleans. It's certainly possible that Austin lives up to his billing but to in any way compare that role in the putrid Rams offense to the one in New Orleans is way out in left field.

 

[gianmarco]

In 2012, Sproles had:

48 carries for 244 rushing yards and 1 TD (5.1 ypc). He also had 75 catches for 667 yards and 7 TDs (8.9 ypc).

This was done while supporting an 85 catch TE in Graham, an 83 catch WR in Colston, a 65 catch WR in Moore, and another 40 catches by Pierre Thomas. It was also in addition to a combined 300 carries between Ingram, Thomas and Ivory (260 between Ingram/Thomas).

Now, St. Louis isn't New Orleans and Bradford isn't Brees, but the Rams also don't have anything nearly as established as the Saints offensive players. Richardson, Pead, Quick, GIvens....all 2nd year players. The most experienced is Cook.

Given their commitment in the draft, the loss of their bellcow Jackson, and relative inexperience everywhere else, I would be shocked if Austin doesn't become the focal point of the offense. Those numbers work out to 3 carries/game and 5 receptions/game. If he remains healthy (which isn't nearly as big a concern for me as it is for others), not only are those numbers not insane, but could also be on the conservative side.

...On the Saints

The Rams have about 100 less completions, 1500 less yards, and 25 less touchdowns to divy out amongst their players.

Lots of teams try to use players in a Sproles type role. Not lots of them churn out good fantasy producers out of it because they're not New Orleans. It's certainly possible that Austin lives up to his billing but to in any way compare that role in the putrid Rams offense to the one in New Orleans is way out in left field.

Well, of course. That's why I pointed out all the catch totals of the major players.

Cook isn't going to get close to 85 catches.

Givens isn't going to sniff 83 catches.

Quick isn't going to hit 65 catches.

I disagree that lots of teams try to use players in a Sproles type role. In fact, I think very few teams go that route.

Harvin, another frequent comparison, had 62 catches and 22 carries in half a season. That was with another focal point on the offense in Peterson. Certainly you wouldn't consider the Minn offense anywhere near as explosive as New Orleans, would you? They were just as putrid as the Rams (20th and 23rd, respectively).

You're not going to find a perfect comparison. But the Rams seem quite committed to making Austin the focal point given their relative inexperience everywhere else and how much they paid to move up to get him. Like Harvin, they will design their offense to get the ball in his hands. If you're trying to tell me that other teams try to do the same but fail, I'd like to know which teams are trying to do this and with which players.

 

[Norcalhoya]

Austin is going to go down as the high-pick-reach-bust. Sure, he might make some good plays and be productive in the NFL, but you don't spend an 8th overall pick on a 5'8" 170 lb slot receiver. You take guys like Fitz that can do EVERYTHING 8th overall.

Absolutely..... guy is electrifying.... and will make plays...... but at pick 8, you better get a Fitz or Calvin type that can do everything.....

I mean Fitz and Calvin went in the top 3 each of their years. Even AJ Green and Julio Jones went top 6. Elite receivers won't slide out of the top 5-6 unless they have character concerns. Was he overdrafted? Yea, but you can't compare him to guys like Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.

 

[Norcalhoya]

Austin projects to put up Sproles type numbers - 80-100 catches, 50-75 carries, 8-10 TDs. He'll probably have a higher yards per catch because he'll run more downfield routes than Sproles.

But, Sproles is an RB and Austin is a WR, you might say.

In terms of 2012 PPG, Here are the closest WRs to Sproles in a PPR:

Reggie Wayne (16.96)

Eric Decker (16.84)

Roddy White (16.82)

Darren Sproles (16.63)

Julio Jones (16.41)

Vincent Jackson (16.28)

Marques Colston (16.15)

I think the reception total is high, at least in year one. Not many rookies come straight into the league and light it up. I could see it more in the 60-85 range.

Do you think the Rams can have a concentrated effort of touches to Austin with all the money they spent on Jared Cook, plus recent draft pick investments in: Pettis, Quick, Pead, Givens, Richardson, Bailey, Stacy?

their concentrated effort to land him in the draft should lead to concentrated effort to get the ball in his hands. only cook has nearly as much tied up in terms of team investment.

My concern isn't Austin's ability. I think with the right players around him he could be amazing. I am just not a believer in Sam Bradford and the Rams don't have anything else on offense to take attention away from Austin. Rams will be overhyped this year, but they'll be picking in the top half of the draft next year and maybe looking for QB this time.

 

[EBF]

His BMI is fine, though, for a WR. I just showed that above.

That's debatable. Austin doesn't project very well as an outside WR. He does have tremendous speed, but he's short for the role and hasn't demonstrated a knack for making plays downfield. He's a catch-and-run player who will work out of the slot and maybe the backfield. He's quite a bit smaller than some of the players people compare him to. Sproles has a 30.1 BMI, which is right on par with your typical three down back. Welker has a 29.1 BMI, which is right near the top of the scale for WRs. Higher than Fitzgerald, Dez, and Marshall. Sproles and Welker are short, but they aren't small. They're really solid for their height and that's probably part of the reason why they can thrive. I don't think Austin has much in common with either of them.

Austin's closest parallels are Harvin and Cobb. Even then, his BMI is lower than Cobb by 1 full point and Harvin by 0.6. Harvin seems to play a bit bigger and stronger than his numbers would indicate. And while I don't put a lot of stock in the idea that players are going to grow significantly after the combine, it might be worth pointing out that Harvin and Cobb entered the draft after three college seasons whereas Austin was a senior. There might be a little less upside and growth potential.

I reference BMI quite frequently and I think it's extremely useful, but it has some shortcomings. In general, I think a taller player with an equivalent BMI will have more functional strength than a shorter player with the same BMI. For example, Dion Lewis has a higher BMI than Marshawn Lynch, but does not run with the same degree of power. They might have the same general proportions, but Lynch is a taller and heavier version of the same thing. That has different consequences. Likewise, Austin being a shorter and lighter version of Harvin doesn't mean he's going to play the same.

I'm still intrigued by what he'll become and it won't be a huge surprise to see him succeed, especially with the opportunity that he'll have in year one, but prospects with no recent historical equivalent are a bit tougher to gauge than players who fit snugly into an established mold.

 

[chinawildman]

How much is his upside limited by the presence of Givens, Quick (and now) Bailey? They invested a 2nd rd pick in Quick and Givens impressed me last season and looked to have chemistry with Bradford. I don't think these guys are just going away to make room for the Tavon Austin show.

 

[ExaltedOne]

I think it's too much to expect Austin to be Darren Sproles or Percy Harvin.

Sproles in in the perfect situation in that New Orleans offense with Drew Brees. Remember they used Reggie Bush in a similar fashion.

Harvin was in the perfect situation as the #1 WR on a Vikings team with really nobody else to throw to. I doubt Harvin will put up Harvin numbers in Seattle.

Now Austin goes to St. Louis and you expect him to do the same thing in his rookie year? Lets be realistic. He'll be a slot receiver on an offense that is still building its identity. His ceiling IMO is Harvin's rookie numbers, which were 60 catches, 790 yards, and 6 TDs. You're really dreaming if you expect 80-100 catches.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Austin projects to put up Sproles type numbers - 80-100 catches, 50-75 carries, 8-10 TDs. He'll probably have a higher yards per catch because he'll run more downfield routes than Sproles. But, Sproles is an RB and Austin is a WR, you might say. In terms of 2012 PPG, Here are the closest WRs to Sproles in a PPR: Reggie Wayne (16.96)Eric Decker (16.84)Roddy White (16.82) Darren Sproles (16.63) Julio Jones (16.41)Vincent Jackson (16.28)Marques Colston (16.15)

I think the reception total is high, at least in year one. Not many rookies come straight into the league and light it up. I could see it more in the 60-85 range. Do you think the Rams can have a concentrated effort of touches to Austin with all the money they spent on Jared Cook, plus recent draft pick investments in: Pettis, Quick, Pead, Givens, Richardson, Bailey, Stacy?

their concentrated effort to land him in the draft should lead to concentrated effort to get the ball in his hands. only cook has nearly as much tied up in terms of team investment.

Fair enough, it looks like a jumbled mess to figure out the rest though. Care to share your projections? Looking at last year:Bradford was 328/551 3702 21 TD Top 4 in yards looked like this.Chris Givens 81 targets, 42 receptions 698 yards 3 TDB. Gibson 82 targets, 51 receptions 691 yards 5 TDAmendola 101 targets, 63 receptions 666 yards 3 TDKendricks 64 targets, 42 receptions 519 yards 4 TD

It should be noted that Amendola was on pace for 91 receptions last season, and in his last full healthy season he had 85 receptions. And given that replacing Amendola is Austin's most likely role, I don't think it's far from crazy to expect Austin to get 60+ receptions this season, and probably good for 15-20 carries.

 

[Bob Magaw]

it doesn't make sense to compare STL in recent years with NO passing attack...

but if the addition of jake long and jared cook in free agency, austin, steadman and stacy in draft and another year of development for young players like kendricks, givens, quick, pead, etc. improves the team, whatever piece of the total austin gets could be coming out of a bigger pie... which would render projections based on recent historical trends out of date...

if bradford doesn't take the next step, the naysayers will be prescient... i am in the category that expects bradford to have a breakout season this year...

i don't know if they will be big factors in the equation, but a few other related thoughts...

i liked the addition of ogletree in 1st and mcdonald in 3rd (but especially the WLB)... with development of brockers, quinn, jenkins, etc., this could be a formidable defense... less time they are on the field, more for likes of bradford and austin...

rams have an unproven run game, so they aren't as well equipped to salt games away in 4th quarter by pounding the ball...

not to mention, with NFC West looking like one of, if not the most competitive divisions, and some offenses on the rise in SF and SEA (ARI should be better with an at least competent QB in palmer, easily best sense warner, when they enjoyed some success), rams could be involved in a lot of shoot outs... so austin may HAVE to be deployed a lot...

i am increasingly thinking a smaller randall cobb may be best comp to invoke...

he is a gamble, but gruden mentioned he hadn't seen him take a flush shot, so nice to know he is smart about when and how to avoid contact...

IF he can stay healthy, he has some of the best open field moves i've ever seen... almost barry sanders-like (his favorite player)...

65-80 receptions seems like a good bracket (just 4-5 receptions a game, he will be in slot a lot, amendola was prolific there when healthy)... he could get more than a couple runs a game... might score a few TDs between ground and kick returns for (most?) leagues that count ST scoring... 6 TDs may not be a conservative projection, but i won't be shocked if he surpasses that...

 

[FreeBaGeL]

it doesn't make sense to compare STL in recent years with NO passing attack...

but if the addition of jake long and jared cook in free agency, austin, steadman and stacy in draft and another year of development for young players like kendricks, givens, quick, pead, etc. improves the team, whatever piece of the total austin gets could be coming out of a bigger pie... which would render projections based on recent historical trends out of date...

if bradford doesn't take the next step, the naysayers will be prescient... i am in the category that expects bradford to have a breakout season this year...

i don't know if they will be big factors in the equation, but a few other related thoughts...

i liked the addition of ogletree in 1st and mcdonald in 3rd (but especially the WLB)... with development of brockers, quinn, jenkins, etc., this could be a formidable defense... less time they are on the field, more for likes of bradford and austin...

rams have an unproven run game, so they aren't as well equipped to salt games away in 4th quarter by pounding the ball...

not to mention, with NFC West looking like one of, if not the most competitive divisions, and some offenses on the rise in SF and SEA (ARI should be better with an at least competent QB in palmer, easily best sense warner, when they enjoyed some success), rams could be involved in a lot of shoot outs... so austin may HAVE to be deployed a lot...

i am increasingly thinking a smaller randall cobb may be best comp to invoke...

he is a gamble, but gruden mentioned he hadn't seen him take a flush shot, so nice to know he is smart about when and how to avoid contact...

IF he can stay healthy, he has some of the best open field moves i've ever seen... almost barry sanders-like (his favorite player)...

65-80 receptions seems like a good bracket (just 4-5 receptions a game, he will be in slot a lot, amendola was prolific there when healthy)... he could get more than a couple runs a game... might score a few TDs between ground and kick returns for (most?) leagues that count ST scoring... 6 TDs may not be a conservative projection, but i won't be shocked if he surpasses that...

Let me just make sure I've got this straight.

• A bad defense drafts a couple of linebackers and they're suddenly going to be a good defense (no wonder the Saints and Jags have such great defenses, they draft defensive players every year!).
• A bunch of underachievers on offense get a year older and they're suddenly going to be good (no wonder Cleveland and Miami keep rolling out those high powered offenses, they have bad young players that get a year older every year!).
• Their games against the two best defenses in the NFL are going to be shootouts (no wonder Cleveland is always having those 45-42 games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore!).
• Arizona's dreadful offense is going to magically be a high powered shootout machine after adding an over the hill QB that wasn't good enough to hold down the job on a team that had nothing behind him (no wonder the Raiders were so awesome last year!).

 

[Bob Magaw]

it doesn't make sense to compare STL in recent years with NO passing attack...

but if the addition of jake long and jared cook in free agency, austin, steadman and stacy in draft and another year of development for young players like kendricks, givens, quick, pead, etc. improves the team, whatever piece of the total austin gets could be coming out of a bigger pie... which would render projections based on recent historical trends out of date...

if bradford doesn't take the next step, the naysayers will be prescient... i am in the category that expects bradford to have a breakout season this year...

i don't know if they will be big factors in the equation, but a few other related thoughts...

i liked the addition of ogletree in 1st and mcdonald in 3rd (but especially the WLB)... with development of brockers, quinn, jenkins, etc., this could be a formidable defense... less time they are on the field, more for likes of bradford and austin...

rams have an unproven run game, so they aren't as well equipped to salt games away in 4th quarter by pounding the ball...

not to mention, with NFC West looking like one of, if not the most competitive divisions, and some offenses on the rise in SF and SEA (ARI should be better with an at least competent QB in palmer, easily best sense warner, when they enjoyed some success), rams could be involved in a lot of shoot outs... so austin may HAVE to be deployed a lot...

i am increasingly thinking a smaller randall cobb may be best comp to invoke...

he is a gamble, but gruden mentioned he hadn't seen him take a flush shot, so nice to know he is smart about when and how to avoid contact...

IF he can stay healthy, he has some of the best open field moves i've ever seen... almost barry sanders-like (his favorite player)...

65-80 receptions seems like a good bracket (just 4-5 receptions a game, he will be in slot a lot, amendola was prolific there when healthy)... he could get more than a couple runs a game... might score a few TDs between ground and kick returns for (most?) leagues that count ST scoring... 6 TDs may not be a conservative projection, but i won't be shocked if he surpasses that...

Let me just make sure I've got this straight.

• A bad defense drafts a couple of linebackers and they're suddenly going to be a good defense (no wonder the Saints and Jags have such great defenses, they draft defensive players every year!).
• A bunch of underachievers on offense get a year older and they're suddenly going to be good (no wonder Cleveland and Miami keep rolling out those high powered offenses, they have bad young players that get a year older every year!).
• Their games against the two best defenses in the NFL are going to be shootouts (no wonder Cleveland is always having those 45-42 games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore!).
• Arizona's dreadful offense is going to magically be a high powered shootout machine after adding an over the hill QB that wasn't good enough to hold down the job on a team that had nothing behind him (no wonder the Raiders were so awesome last year!).

- that is some funny material, i appreciate it, maybe you can get into standup if the austin critic thing doesn't work out.

as to rams defense, i guess "bad" is subjective... they finished in the top half in scoring defense, and tied for league lead in sacks with DEN. wouldn't you expect improvement with the addition in free agency and the draft since fisher arrived... to long and fellow first round DE quinn they added free agent langford (former MIA 3-4 DE) and first round DT brockers last year, as well as rotational DE hayes... in the second level, jo-lonn dunbar was the team's best WLB in years (since tinoisamoa broke down)... in the secondary, they added pro bowl CB finnegan and second round starting CB janoris jenkins, who scored four defensive TDs and was (or should have been) in the conversation for defensive rookie of the year...

this year, ogletree was arguably a top 10-15 physical talent that dropped for off field concerns... many scouts had him as the top 4-3 LB in the draft... i've been following the rams for decades, and he is one of the franchises most athletic WLBs in my recollection...

the 2013 draft also brought SS-type mcdonald, which could be a net negative in that instance, if he doesn't make up for attrition of mikell...

to sum up again, not counting rotational players like hayes, they have added a combined seven new starters in little over one year in the fisher era, with two free agency periods and drafts (first rounders brockers and ogletree, second rounder jenkins, third rounder mcdonald, and the free agents, DT langford, LB dunbar and pro bowl CB finnegan), representing the greatest influx of defensive talent (in large part of course due to being positioned to leverage the RG3 trade into additional picks) the organization has seen in a long time...

- is it really that controversial to suggest that rookies and second year players on occassion show development and improvement... like quinn from 2011 to break out in 2012?

- 2012 meetings

week 4 against SEA W 19-13

week 10 against SF T 24-24 (OT)

week 13 against SF W 16-13 (OT)

week 17 against SE L 13-20

competitive would have been better characterization... i don't think they got to the point in any of these contests where they could comfortably preserve a large lead by keeping it on the ground for long stretches...

could SF and SEA offenses conceivably improve and score more this season? kaepernick has the whole offseason and enters the next one as starter, for one thing... SEA added harvin, who is a dangerous weapon.

- was palmer released partly for contract reasons? maybe his age (33) didn't fit with rebuilding roster? is it possible some serial bad drafting by the late al davis didn't make palmer ideally positioned for success?

BTW, maybe i missed it up thread, but how many receptions and TDs are you projecting for austin...

is it appreciably lower than 65 receptions and 6 TDs (latter stat including rushing and ST)?

 

[gianmarco]

Vegas is more optimistic when it comes to Rams rookie wide receiver Tavon Austin and the impact he will have as a rookie. According to Bovada.lv, the over-under on Austin’s receiving yards in 2013 is 800 — a pretty big number for a rookie. The over-under on Austin’s receiving touchdowns is 4½.

 

[pantherclub]

Vegas is more optimistic when it comes to Rams rookie wide receiver Tavon Austin and the impact he will have as a rookie. According to Bovada.lv, the over-under on Austin’s receiving yards in 2013 is 800 — a pretty big number for a rookie. The over-under on Austin’s receiving touchdowns is 4½.

yeah I am not seeing the 80 catches with 10 tds next year

 

[gianmarco]

Vegas is more optimistic when it comes to Rams rookie wide receiver Tavon Austin and the impact he will have as a rookie. According to Bovada.lv, the over-under on Austin’s receiving yards in 2013 is 800 — a pretty big number for a rookie. The over-under on Austin’s receiving touchdowns is 4½.

yeah I am not seeing the 80 catches with 10 tds next year

Who said 10 TDs?

The number put above as part of the range by Bob Magaw was 65 receptions and 6 TDs (total). He was told he was insane. Is Vegas insane too?

 

[Doubtingthomas]

Paging AZ Hakim, AZ Hakim please come to the slot receiving spot.

 

[ShaHBucks]

What happens if he's just Dexter McCluster and not Sproles/Harvin?

Anyone worried about his wonderlic score ad the possibility he can't pick up a nfl offense? He sounds a little "slow" in all of his draft interviews. I was not surprised he scored that low after hearing him talk.

 

[mr roboto]

Paging AZ Hakim, AZ Hakim please come to the slot receiving spot.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

What happens if he's just Dexter McCluster and not Sproles/Harvin?Anyone worried about his wonderlic score ad the possibility he can't pick up a nfl offense? He sounds a little "slow" in all of his draft interviews. I was not surprised he scored that low after hearing him talk.

Then Austin's a bust, simple as that. It's a possible outcome sure, but given Austin's 4.34 40 time compared to McCluster's 4.58 40 time, I think we can expect a good deal more dynamic plays from Austin than what we've seen from McCluster in the NFL.

In regard to Austin's intelligence, I certainly haven't noticed any correlation between intelligence and WR performance going back to the beginning of the NFL, and I see no reason to expect that to change anytime soon either. So no, I wouldn't be worried about his wonderlic score in the least, nor would I be worried about the wonderlic score of any WR, or just about any position really.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Bob, what I was touching on is that you're taking broad, generalized theorycraft that could literally be applied to any team on any year. Every team drafts rookies every year that should theoretically improve the team, and every team has young players that get another year under their belt and should theoretically get better. Obviously, every team doesn't get better every year and STL's aren't really any kind of standout group on this front.

Next, you're taking those generalized arguments and bending them in a way such that no matter which way they go they aid Austin. If STL's defense plays well it's good for Austin because it means the offense will be on the field more. if STL's defense plays poorly it's good for Austin because it means more shootouts. It's like the old discussion about whether a WR is better off being the clear #1 on his team or having another good WR opposite him. If the people like the WR and he's by himself they'll argue that being by himself will get him more targets. If he has another good WR alongside him they'll argue that it means he'll see weaker coverage. Likewise the people that don't like the WR will argue that being by himself means he'll see more coverage, or sharing with another WR means he'll see fewer targets. There's no statistics pointing in either direction, people just bend and twist the logic of the argument to suit a player they've already decided on.

It's no different here. If STL's bevy of other young WRs improve you just think it means the defense can't focus on Austin as much. If they don't then hey, more passes for Austin! If the defense plays poorly then shootouts mean more scoring opportunities. If they play well then more time out there on the field. You're taking every hypothetical best case scenario for StL, then backing yourself up with that scenario not working out still being a plus as well. Then you're taking every hypothetical best case scenario (in terms of how it helps Austin) for the teams around StL and applying those as well. Really, most of this stuff isn't going to happen and if it does it's unlikely to have the effect you're extrapolating out of it.

To be clear, I'm not down on Austin. I don't fiddle with PPR so he has less value to me than those but do, but I think he could easily be a good player. That doesn't mean that I agreed with the points being made in this case, however.

- 2012 meetings

week 4 against SEA W 19-13

week 10 against SF T 24-24 (OT)

week 13 against SF W 16-13 (OT)

week 17 against SE L 13-20

competitive would have been better characterization... i don't think they got to the point in any of these contests where they could comfortably preserve a large lead by keeping it on the ground for long stretches...

Errr...talk about moving the goalposts. Don't worry, you don't have to convince anyone that there isn't some big concern about StL taking 30 point leads into half time against SF/Sea and just milking the clock in the 2nd half, so let's not pretend that's really what you were trying to say.

 

[heidbrink]

Rams WR Tavon Austin the early favorite for Rookie of the Year.

http://www.turfshowtimes.com/2013/5/3/4297804/tavon-austin-nfl-rookie-of-the-year-st-louis-rams

...SportsBook.com has Tavon Austin with 3/1 odds to win the rookie of the year prize. The next best odds behind him are Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert. DeAndre Hopkins and Eddie Lacy bring up the third place spot with 8/1 odds, and they're followed by a gaggle of rookies with 10/1 odds or higher..

...The last receiver to win it? Percy Harvin, 2009. He had 60 receptions for 790 yards and six touchdowns that season. He added another 135 yards on 15 rushing attempts. Harvin picked up most of his yardage on kick returns with 1,156 and two touchdowns....

 

[Bob Magaw]

Bob, what I was touching on is that you're taking broad, generalized theorycraft that could literally be applied to any team on any year. Every team drafts rookies every year that should theoretically improve the team, and every team has young players that get another year under their belt and should theoretically get better. Obviously, every team doesn't get better every year and STL's aren't really any kind of standout group on this front.

Next, you're taking those generalized arguments and bending them in a way such that no matter which way they go they aid Austin. If STL's defense plays well it's good for Austin because it means the offense will be on the field more. if STL's defense plays poorly it's good for Austin because it means more shootouts. It's like the old discussion about whether a WR is better off being the clear #1 on his team or having another good WR opposite him. If the people like the WR and he's by himself they'll argue that being by himself will get him more targets. If he has another good WR alongside him they'll argue that it means he'll see weaker coverage. Likewise the people that don't like the WR will argue that being by himself means he'll see more coverage, or sharing with another WR means he'll see fewer targets. There's no statistics pointing in either direction, people just bend and twist the logic of the argument to suit a player they've already decided on.

It's no different here. If STL's bevy of other young WRs improve you just think it means the defense can't focus on Austin as much. If they don't then hey, more passes for Austin! If the defense plays poorly then shootouts mean more scoring opportunities. If they play well then more time out there on the field. You're taking every hypothetical best case scenario for StL, then backing yourself up with that scenario not working out still being a plus as well. Then you're taking every hypothetical best case scenario (in terms of how it helps Austin) for the teams around StL and applying those as well. Really, most of this stuff isn't going to happen and if it does it's unlikely to have the effect you're extrapolating out of it.

To be clear, I'm not down on Austin. I don't fiddle with PPR so he has less value to me than those but do, but I think he could easily be a good player. That doesn't mean that I agreed with the points being made in this case, however.

- 2012 meetings

week 4 against SEA W 19-13

week 10 against SF T 24-24 (OT)

week 13 against SF W 16-13 (OT)

week 17 against SE L 13-20

competitive would have been better characterization... i don't think they got to the point in any of these contests where they could comfortably preserve a large lead by keeping it on the ground for long stretches...

Errr...talk about moving the goalposts. Don't worry, you don't have to convince anyone that there isn't some big concern about StL taking 30 point leads into half time against SF/Sea and just milking the clock in the 2nd half, so let's not pretend that's really what you were trying to say.

so, just to clarify YOUR position, do you think the defense has improved in fisher era relative to previous year?

this basic, fundamental point seems so obvious that to challenge it makes the rest of the exchange seem like merely a rhetorical exercise...

if the defense is better, could that help the offense...

i understand you aren't down on austin... can you be more specific on how you see him doing as a rookie?

if not 65 catches... in the 50s - 40s - 30s?

would you agree that maybe palmer situation was a little more complicated than just that he played his way out of a job?

 

[pantherclub]

Vegas is more optimistic when it comes to Rams rookie wide receiver Tavon Austin and the impact he will have as a rookie. According to Bovada.lv, the over-under on Austin’s receiving yards in 2013 is 800 — a pretty big number for a rookie. The over-under on Austin’s receiving touchdowns is 4½.

yeah I am not seeing the 80 catches with 10 tds next year

Who said 10 TDs?

The number put above as part of the range by Bob Magaw was 65 receptions and 6 TDs (total). He was told he was insane. Is Vegas insane too?

sigmund bloom upthread