Tavon Austin - Upside (1 Viewer)

[ShaHBucks]

so far he looks horrible.

What are the chances he is just a rookie and will improve? By enough to make him worthwhile as a trade-target?

Perfect timing to throw out some offers. I never said he wasn't decent. I just thought his price exceeded his value at the time.

 

[Nucker101]

so far he looks horrible.

What are the chances he is just a rookie and will improve? By enough to make him worthwhile as a trade-target?

Perfect timing to throw out some offers. I never said he wasn't decent. I just thought his price exceeded his value at the time.

Agreed, good time to take a shot as a buy-low in dynasty formats. This year it's going to be difficult to trust any Ram WR/TE though, seems like Bradford is just going to spread it around to 5+ receivers.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Blackmon didnt start showing flashes till about half way his senior year. WR don't normally play well their fist few years. I drafted him as a rookie in my keeper league he will be redshirted this year.

That was true in the 1980s. Not the case anymore.

austin has been a disappointment in redraft, especially after first two to three weeks, and reduced snap count is disturbing...I don't think it is as clear cut or simple as you are making it, though... somewhat of mixed bag recently...

compared to years where WRs did very little for a year or two, I agree, but it still isn't the norm to star immediately...

I looked at first rounders from last five drafts...

2009 was a mixed bag for early returns...

not counting DHB, of course, but crabtree (48-625-2), harvin, nicks and britt had varying degrees of success... crabtree really broke out last year, wasn't a roaring success initially...

2010 was demaryius thomas (22-282-3 in 10 games) and dez bryant (45-561-6)... thomas clearly a slow start, bryant similar to crabtree's numbers, albeit better TD numbers...

2011 AJ green and julio jones... needless to say they were great, but still the exception to rule, they are looking like serial pro bowlers and potentially historically good (especially green, who entered season three with one of the best two year starts for a WR ever)... we shouldn't count on even one WR of their caliber per year, let alone two...

2012 blackmon did fine once he got untracked, floyd (45-562-2) looks a lot like crabtree's rookie campaign, wright (64-626-4)... maybe it is too early to put jenkins in bust category, but he is headed in that direction... technically first pick in round two, but quick has flashed at times (TD against texans), but far too inconsistently, and has been slow to develope (jerome simpson-like small school project resume, may have similar late bloomer career arc?)...

2013 austin as noted was functional first three weeks, has really fallen off map since with reduced snaps, hopkins has looked great at times and would have better numbers if not for texans implosion last few weeks, tennessee teammates patterson and hunter (technically second pick in round two) went within handful of picks of each other, don't fit your profile either of doing well early in comparison to 1980s... hunter does have 2 TDs with his two catches, but neither are startable yet by that criteria...

 

[ImTheScientist]

Blackmon didnt start showing flashes till about half way his senior year. WR don't normally play well their fist few years. I drafted him as a rookie in my keeper league he will be redshirted this year.

That was true in the 1980s. Not the case anymore.

austin has been a disappointment in redraft, especially after first two to three weeks, and reduced snap count is disturbing...

I don't think it is as clear cut or simple as you are making it, though... somewhat of mixed bag recently...

compared to years where WRs did very little for a year or two, I agree, but it still isn't the norm to star immediately...

I looked at first rounders from last five drafts...

2009 was a mixed bag for early returns...

not counting DHB, of course, but crabtree (48-625-2), harvin, nicks and britt had varying degrees of success... crabtree really broke out last year, wasn't a roaring success initially...

2010 was demaryius thomas (22-282-3 in 10 games) and dez bryant (45-561-6)... thomas clearly a slow start, bryant similar to crabtree's numbers, albeit better TD numbers...

2011 AJ green and julio jones... needless to say they were great, but still the exception to rule, they are looking like serial pro bowlers and potentially historically good (especially green, who entered season three with one of the best two year starts for a WR ever)... we shouldn't count on even one WR of their caliber per year, let alone two...

2012 blackmon did fine once he got untracked, floyd (45-562-2) looks a lot like crabtree's rookie campaign, wright (64-626-4)... maybe it is too early to put jenkins in bust category, but he is headed in that direction... technically first pick in round two, but quick has flashed at times (TD against texans), but far too inconsistently, and has been slow to develope (jerome simpson-like small school project resume, may have similar late bloomer career arc?)...

2013 austin as noted was functional first three weeks, has really fallen off map since with reduced snaps, hopkins has looked great at times and would have better numbers if not for texans implosion last few weeks, tennessee teammates patterson and hunter (technically second pick in round two) went within handful of picks of each other, don't fit your profile either of doing well early since 1980s... hunter does have 2 TDs with his two catches, but neither are start able yet by that criteria...

Of those players listed..... how many of them can you say with confidence you feel Austin will be better than?

 

[jurb26]

Like I said, Peter Warrick is the most applicable comp for Austin.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I'll answer yours, but do you agree with my point?

I guess you are asking how I would project his pro career based on six games, of which he hasn't played as much in last two (and looked bad as a team weeks three and four)... you can probably appreciate how that is problematic...

I may have to approach it obliquely...

we differ on a few fundamental premises... I'm exaggerating your stance, but I gave you reasons in above post (which hopefully you will respond to) why I don't think slow start is necessarily a deathblow to his career (see crabtree and demaryius, notably - they are different types of WR from austin, but that isn't the point)...

I also don't think bradford is terrible like you (though that is shared by others, possibly many others), or even mediocre, so that could lead to different conclusions...

austin was around top 25-30 in PPR leagues through three weeks...is he "really" that guy, or "really" the guy that has disappointed last three weeks?

he has probably lost a TD and few hundred return yards due to rams ST penalties...

if you are asking in another way am I prepared to throw away what I saw that I liked in college, and have i drastically changed my opinion so that I now think he will be a failure in the NFL?

the short answer is no in dynasty... in redraft, he isn't trending well...

I don't think he has suddenly lost his speed or quickness... but I think a few factors have conspired to the slow start...

on him, I think he is still getting acclimated to the speed of the game... he has danced far too much, imo (especially on punt returns), and needs to learn to do a better job of getting north south sooner...

I think he leads the league in drops (through week five?), but I don't think that was ever an issue in college, so maybe he is pressing... I don't have a long term concern with that...

my biggest concern is the incompetence of OC to use him creatively (lately they have dealt with it by playing him less, not a great sign that the OC is figuring this out)... one poster insisted that was an excuse, because he is being used just like desean jackson... I'll let my observation stand, and let others who have actually watched the rams judge for themselves if austin is in fact being used identically to jackson, and the latter's far greater success being strictly a case of players make plays, and having nothing to do with usage?

 

[ImTheScientist]

I'll answer yours, but do you agree with my point?

I would say reality lands somewhere between the "WR don't normally play well their fist few years." and mine. If your point lands in that zone then yes I agree.

 

[Bobbyn2022]

Anyone who had watch film on the kid can easily see that he's just like Harvin and Cobb what did they do their first year? The kids gonna be a stud he's to quick and his top speed is to fast not to be.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Anyone who had watch film on the kid can easily see that he's just like Harvin and Cobb what did they do their first year? The kids gonna be a stud he's to quick and his top speed is to fast not to be.

good point about cobb... i restricted myself to first round (and some high second round) WRs drafted in past half decade, cobb went bottom of second (2011?)... he didn't do a lot as rookie, other than as returner...

harvin had pretty good rookie year, off top of my head (just looked it up today for above post), around 60+ receptions, 700+ yards & 6 TDs.

harvin is bigger and stronger, though you are right, they are often compared (with cobb) due to versatility as WR, RB and returner... before going out mid-season last year, he was putting up top 2-3 WR numbers (pacing for like 120-1,300+)...

i would be ecstatic if his career unfolded like cobb... at this point, imo we would have to call cobb more proven, and austin more of an unproven commodity (nobody would trade cobb for austin, even with cobb's broken leg)...

of course, while i'm higher on bradford than many, he's no rodgers, so that should possibly cause us to take pause and temper our expectations somewhat, at least in cobb comparisons (not that you were necessarily making a direct comparison in terms of expected future production, but perhaps more in terms of talent and skill set flashed in college - not a lot else to go on at this point?)...

 

[Dizzy]

I'm going to use the "eyeball test" reference again. Forget the College Gameday highlights. Austin looks completely overwhelmed in the NFL. Now he's on the field where everyone is big, fast, well-coached, etc. He may indeed be the next Darren Sproles, but I would be shocked if it happened this season. He has the look of a guy searching for the home run play... only it's 100 times harder at this level.

 

[cubbie5150]

I'm going to use the "eyeball test" reference again. Forget the College Gameday highlights. Austin looks completely overwhelmed in the NFL. Now he's on the field where everyone is big, fast, well-coached, etc. He may indeed be the next Darren Sproles, but I would be shocked if it happened this season. He has the look of a guy searching for the home run play... only it's 100 times harder at this level.

Yeah, I hate to, but I agree with this. It makes me think of what Phillip Rivers said about his rookie WR, Keenan Allen. Something along the lines of "clearly the NFL is not too big for Keenan." So basically, the opposite of what we're seeing with Tavon. I still think it's beyond obvious Schottenheimer's "plan" for him is inexplicable, nothing but 3 yd curl routes, no plays in space, but Tavon does not look ready either.

 

[Xue]

Anyone who had watch film on the kid can easily see that he's just like Harvin and Cobb what did they do their first year? The kids gonna be a stud he's to quick and his top speed is to fast not to be.

Harvin had 790 yards his rookie year and actually looked great. Cobb looked great as well in limited opportunities.

 

[Bobbyn2022]

Anyone who had watch film on the kid can easily see that he's just like Harvin and Cobb what did they do their first year? The kids gonna be a stud he's to quick and his top speed is to fast not to be.

Harvin had 790 yards his rookie year and actually looked great. Cobb looked great as well in limited opportunities.

I think Austin had a few nice returns in pre season and he did have 2 TDs week 2 that were both nice IMO. He's a rookie and by now if u have not realized rookie WRs have a hard time adjusting to the NFL. If you're judging the guy by his rookie year then you don't know jack about football. Bradford sucks. Austin will shine in time no doubt.

 

[Bobbyn2022]

Percy Harvins after 6 games his rookie year with BRETT FAVRE throwing him the ball had 20 catches,225 yards and 2 TDs. Austin with BRADFORD has

24 catches 159 yards and 2tds. So more catches then Harvin but less yards with the same amount of TDs. Austin will be a Harvin and Cobb type player in time. Jump ship after 6 games LOL shows how much you know a out the Wide Reciever position.

1 @CLE 3 36 1

2 @DET 5 41 1

3 SFO 4 51 0

4 GNB 2 39 0

5 @STL 4 66 0

6 BAL 2 10 0

T.Austin 6 games

1 ARI 6 41 0

2 @ATL 6 47 2

3 @DAL 6 30 0

4 SFO 2 6 0

5 JAC 3 32 0

6 @HOU 1 3 0

 

[Xue]

Anyone who had watch film on the kid can easily see that he's just like Harvin and Cobb what did they do their first year? The kids gonna be a stud he's to quick and his top speed is to fast not to be.

Harvin had 790 yards his rookie year and actually looked great. Cobb looked great as well in limited opportunities.

I think Austin had a few nice returns in pre season and he did have 2 TDs week 2 that were both nice IMO. He's a rookie and by now if u have not realized rookie WRs have a hard time adjusting to the NFL. If you're judging the guy by his rookie year then you don't know jack about football. Bradford sucks. Austin will shine in time no doubt.

If you think Austin is any better than Ace Sanders or Andrew Hawkins, you don't watch enough football. Bradford sucks. And Austin isn't the player you think he is. I'm not judging him on what he's done in the NFL. I'm judging him based on a playing against subpar BIG12 defenders.

Harvin had Favre his rookie year and had Ponder the last few seasons. What's your point? The QB doesn't matter. With Favre he was used more downfield. With Ponder he was catching a lot of short passes.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

What's his upside? 2 rec, 8 yards. That's his upside.

 

[Deamon]

Blackmon didnt start showing flashes till about half way his senior year. WR don't normally play well their fist few years. I drafted him as a rookie in my keeper league he will be redshirted this year.

That was true in the 1980s. Not the case anymore.

Definitely is still the case. Maybe not AS much as back then, but guys like Calvin, Crabtree, Harvin, D. Thomas, Dez Bryant, etc all needed a year or two to really break out. Year 2/3 is usually when WR's breakout to their potential... rarely does a rookie wr, even a highly touted one, hit 1K yards.

 

[chinawildman]

Don't get the comparisons to cobb and harvin AT ALL. Besides the fact that they're smaller guys that are involved in the return game, the results have been drastically different. So far Austin's looking more like Dante Hall...

 

[ShaHBucks]

Dexter McCluster

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

So far Austin's looking more like Dante Hall...

Agree with this. He's much closer to Hall than Harvin.

The play calling for him hasn't done him any favors. I definitely think Austin can be a weapon on offense. But he's not going to be if he's running 3 yard curl routes. The OC isn't going to be long for STL -- and then we're having the discussion again about Bradford having yet another new OC....

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

So far Austin's looking more like Dante Hall...

Agree with this. He's much closer to Hall than Harvin.

The play calling for him hasn't done him any favors. I definitely think Austin can be a weapon on offense. But he's not going to be if he's running 3 yard curl routes. The OC isn't going to be long for STL -- and then we're having the discussion again about Bradford having yet another new OC....

As a Jets fan, STL fans/Tavon owners have my sympathies when it comes to Brian Schotty as OC.

 

[ImTheScientist]

He is not even close to Harvin.

 

[Khy]

Honestly... the amount of hindsight being used as proof in these forums has gotten completely out of hand. The fact that people just blatantly ignore the stats and proof in front of them and only look at what we see now. Think about this... here's every WR I can find that we now think of as "elite" or on their way to that who were drafted in the 1st round. I'm going to be looking strictly at their first 6 games of stat lines.

2013

Tavon Austin: 24 Receptions, 159 Yards, 2 TDs

2012

Justin Blackmon: 14 Receptions, 119 Yards, 0 TDs

Michael Floyd: 7 Receptions, 84 Yards, 1 TD

Kendall Wright: 33 Receptions, 285 Yards, 2 TDs

2011

AJ Green: 29 Receptions, 453 Yards, 4 TDs

Julio Jones: 28 Receptions, 489 Yards, 2 TDs

2010

Demaryius Thomas: 15 Receptions, 184 Yards, 2 TDs

Dez Bryant: 22 Receptions, 265 Yards, 3 TDs

2009

Michael Crabtree: 26 Receptions, 346 Yards, 1 TD

Jeremy Maclin: 22 Receptions, 293 Yards, 2 TDs

Percy Harvin: 20 Receptions, 243 Yards, 2 TDs

Hakeem Nicks: 20 Receptions, 368 Yards, 4 TDs

So what can we actually see here? Outside of Green, Jones and Nicks he's about on par where every other solid 1st Round WR was at this point in their careers. Will he shape up and become elite, or even a good WR? Who knows, but to say "HAHAHAH TOLD YOU SO HE'S A BUST!" is ridiculous. If we had this mentality with all these guys, you all would have traded away Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd etc. in Dynasty and be thinking about jumping off a cliff right now. And all of these guys had either comparable or better talents throwing them the ball than Sam Bradford.

 

[Goldfinger007]

IDK I'm still scratching my head over this kid's usage. Perhaps he is a bit overwhelmed on this level, but I certainly haven't seen the strong evidence of this. He's had some really nice returns that were called back on penalties. Having watched those suggests to me that his ability in the open field is every bit as advertised. The first thing I have to question is why haven't they been lining him up in the backfield? If i was the OC, that's one of the first things I'd want to try with him. Run a draw or two with him, some wheel routes, sprinkle in a couple screens and send him in motion out of the backfield. This would seem like an obvious move to me to try and set up a mismatch against a LB or Safety. Like others have mentioned, all I ever see is little unimaginative three yard routes. The running game isn't scaring anyone. So the safeties and even the LB's are playing back, so when he does get the ball, he's easily contained.

 

[TheFanatic]

IDK I'm still scratching my head over this kid's usage. Perhaps he is a bit overwhelmed on this level, but I certainly haven't seen the strong evidence of this. He's had some really nice returns that were called back on penalties. Having watched those suggests to me that his ability in the open field is every bit as advertised. The first thing I have to question is why haven't they been lining him up in the backfield? If i was the OC, that's one of the first things I'd want to try with him. Run a draw or two with him, some wheel routes, sprinkle in a couple screens and send him in motion out of the backfield. This would seem like an obvious move to me to try and set up a mismatch against a LB or Safety. Like others have mentioned, all I ever see is little unimaginative three yard routes. The running game isn't scaring anyone. So the safeties and even the LB's are playing back, so when he does get the ball, he's easily contained.

This, by all that is holy and good, this!

 

[jurb26]

Honestly... the amount of hindsight being used as proof in these forums has gotten completely out of hand. The fact that people just blatantly ignore the stats and proof in front of them and only look at what we see now. Think about this... here's every WR I can find that we now think of as "elite" or on their way to that who were drafted in the 1st round. I'm going to be looking strictly at their first 6 games of stat lines.

2013

Tavon Austin: 24 Receptions, 159 Yards, 2 TDs

2012

Justin Blackmon: 14 Receptions, 119 Yards, 0 TDs

Michael Floyd: 7 Receptions, 84 Yards, 1 TD

Kendall Wright: 33 Receptions, 285 Yards, 2 TDs

2011

AJ Green: 29 Receptions, 453 Yards, 4 TDs

Julio Jones: 28 Receptions, 489 Yards, 2 TDs

2010

Demaryius Thomas: 15 Receptions, 184 Yards, 2 TDs

Dez Bryant: 22 Receptions, 265 Yards, 3 TDs

2009

Michael Crabtree: 26 Receptions, 346 Yards, 1 TD

Jeremy Maclin: 22 Receptions, 293 Yards, 2 TDs

Percy Harvin: 20 Receptions, 243 Yards, 2 TDs

Hakeem Nicks: 20 Receptions, 368 Yards, 4 TDs

So what can we actually see here? Outside of Green, Jones and Nicks he's about on par where every other solid 1st Round WR was at this point in their careers. Will he shape up and become elite, or even a good WR? Who knows, but to say "HAHAHAH TOLD YOU SO HE'S A BUST!" is ridiculous. If we had this mentality with all these guys, you all would have traded away Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd etc. in Dynasty and be thinking about jumping off a cliff right now. And all of these guys had either comparable or better talents throwing them the ball than Sam Bradford.

Yeah, thus is good stuff. The problem is we were told by a heavy amount of Austin backers he was an exception to the rule. He was going to have an immediate and significant impact. That bucks all historic probability, as you've pointed out.

 

[karmarooster]

Those "stats" neglected to utilize an important one... YPC. Anyone can compile a list of the last few uber-rookies and say "LOOK,,, AUSTIN HAS MORE! I CAN ADD!"

E.g., Austin's 159 yards is MORE than Blackmon's 119 yards. Bravo. Well, other than Michael Floyd, I guess that's all that Austin can go more than on yards, despite having 24 receptions. And his 2 TDs is MORE than Crabtree's 1 TD. Yay.

So you can add, but can you divide?

Here's a stat for you: Austin has the lowest yards per reception (6.6) of anyone on that list. For a guy who is 175 pounds, that's not good, VERY not good. His only trick is speed, quicks, and cutting. If he was some huge 6 foot 6 WR who could out-jump anyone in the redzone it wouldn't matter that he had a low YPC. But he's not, so it does.

Data Dominator time -- does this count as using "real facts" to back up my argument? -- Among WRs from 2002-2013 with at least 25 receptions in a single year. There are 993 results. The LOWEST YPC among them is Dexter McCluster at 7.1 YPC.

If we turn to RBs, there are 386 RBs with at least 25 receptions in a year from 2002-2013. Austin would rank in the 80s... meaning there are 300 more RBs with a better YPC, despite the fact that most RBs line up 5-8 yards BEHIND the line of scrimmage, where Austin usually starts his plays.

The only difference between weeks 1-3 Austin and recent usage Austin is that coaching staff isn't going to him. He wasn't producing much then, and he's not producing much now. Only difference is that the Rams are not forcing the ball to him anymore, because they are getting better production out of Pettis and Quick. Let me say that again - Pettis and Quick are better NFL WRs right now than #8 overall Tavon Austin.

Austin could, one day, develop into a nice little weapon for a creative coach who has others to draw away coverage. Like, Sean Payton in New Orleans, or Bill in New England. Problem is Austin doesn't play for those teams and won't for at least 3-5 years.


This little gem contains so many interesting ideas I don't even know where to begin...

If you're judging the guy by his rookie year then you don't know jack about football. Bradford sucks. Austin will shine in time no doubt.

(1) If Austin sucks because Bradford sucks, when exactly can we expect Austin to play with another QB besides Bradford? Is either one of these players going anywhere anytime soon?

(2) Judging a rookie year can be harsh. But even rookies like, oh I don't know Percy Harvin can show you a hint of what they can produce. Like how Harvin produced 1.8 points (non-PPR) per reception, as a rookie, through 6 games. Or like how Nicks could put up 18 YPC, as a rookie, through 6 games. Compare those numbers ("good"), to Austin's 1.16 points produced per reception, and 6.6 YPC ("bad").

(3) This is going to be a difficult assignment, but how about you find me a 175 pound WR who produced 6.6 YPC, and 1.1 points per reception, through 6 games as a rookie... and then BLEW UP to become ANYTHING resembling one of those guys listed above. Good luck.

 

[TheFanatic]

Honestly... the amount of hindsight being used as proof in these forums has gotten completely out of hand. The fact that people just blatantly ignore the stats and proof in front of them and only look at what we see now. Think about this... here's every WR I can find that we now think of as "elite" or on their way to that who were drafted in the 1st round. I'm going to be looking strictly at their first 6 games of stat lines.

2013

Tavon Austin: 24 Receptions, 159 Yards, 2 TDs

2012

Justin Blackmon: 14 Receptions, 119 Yards, 0 TDs

Michael Floyd: 7 Receptions, 84 Yards, 1 TD

Kendall Wright: 33 Receptions, 285 Yards, 2 TDs

2011

AJ Green: 29 Receptions, 453 Yards, 4 TDs

Julio Jones: 28 Receptions, 489 Yards, 2 TDs

2010

Demaryius Thomas: 15 Receptions, 184 Yards, 2 TDs

Dez Bryant: 22 Receptions, 265 Yards, 3 TDs

2009

Michael Crabtree: 26 Receptions, 346 Yards, 1 TD

Jeremy Maclin: 22 Receptions, 293 Yards, 2 TDs

Percy Harvin: 20 Receptions, 243 Yards, 2 TDs

Hakeem Nicks: 20 Receptions, 368 Yards, 4 TDs

So what can we actually see here? Outside of Green, Jones and Nicks he's about on par where every other solid 1st Round WR was at this point in their careers. Will he shape up and become elite, or even a good WR? Who knows, but to say "HAHAHAH TOLD YOU SO HE'S A BUST!" is ridiculous. If we had this mentality with all these guys, you all would have traded away Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd etc. in Dynasty and be thinking about jumping off a cliff right now. And all of these guys had either comparable or better talents throwing them the ball than Sam Bradford.

Yeah, thus is good stuff. The problem is we were told by a heavy amount of Austin backers he was an exception to the rule. He was going to have an immediate and significant impact.That bucks all historic probability, as you've pointed out.

Can you show where anyone said he would be a second coming of Anquan Boldin's rookie season? I'm a big Austin proponent, but I never said he would put up 1400 yards and 10 TD's. And he had 18 receptions after three games. That's pretty solid. Now if only someone would actually, I don't know, toss the kid a screen or a wheel route or something other than a three yard curl, we might see what he can do...

 

[jurb26]

Honestly... the amount of hindsight being used as proof in these forums has gotten completely out of hand. The fact that people just blatantly ignore the stats and proof in front of them and only look at what we see now. Think about this... here's every WR I can find that we now think of as "elite" or on their way to that who were drafted in the 1st round. I'm going to be looking strictly at their first 6 games of stat lines.

2013

Tavon Austin: 24 Receptions, 159 Yards, 2 TDs

2012

Justin Blackmon: 14 Receptions, 119 Yards, 0 TDs

Michael Floyd: 7 Receptions, 84 Yards, 1 TD

Kendall Wright: 33 Receptions, 285 Yards, 2 TDs

2011

AJ Green: 29 Receptions, 453 Yards, 4 TDs

Julio Jones: 28 Receptions, 489 Yards, 2 TDs

2010

Demaryius Thomas: 15 Receptions, 184 Yards, 2 TDs

Dez Bryant: 22 Receptions, 265 Yards, 3 TDs

2009

Michael Crabtree: 26 Receptions, 346 Yards, 1 TD

Jeremy Maclin: 22 Receptions, 293 Yards, 2 TDs

Percy Harvin: 20 Receptions, 243 Yards, 2 TDs

Hakeem Nicks: 20 Receptions, 368 Yards, 4 TDs

So what can we actually see here? Outside of Green, Jones and Nicks he's about on par where every other solid 1st Round WR was at this point in their careers. Will he shape up and become elite, or even a good WR? Who knows, but to say "HAHAHAH TOLD YOU SO HE'S A BUST!" is ridiculous. If we had this mentality with all these guys, you all would have traded away Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd etc. in Dynasty and be thinking about jumping off a cliff right now. And all of these guys had either comparable or better talents throwing them the ball than Sam Bradford.

Yeah, thus is good stuff. The problem is we were told by a heavy amount of Austin backers he was an exception to the rule. He was going to have an immediate and significant impact.That bucks all historic probability, as you've pointed out.

Can you show where anyone said he would be a second coming of Anquan Boldin's rookie season? I'm a big Austin proponent, but I never said he would put up 1400 yards and 10 TD's. And he had 18 receptions after three games. That's pretty solid. Now if only someone would actually, I don't know, toss the kid a screen or a wheel route or something other than a three yard curl, we might see what he can do...

Look no further than the original post of the thread. I think it was over 1000 receiving, 40+ carries and like 8 total TDs. Many others had similar projections for THIS year.

 

[karmarooster]

Will this suffice:

Sure he was. And he was sent packing too with nobody added because he wasn't valuable enough in that role. Getting back to Austin, I highly doubt he finishes with 1300+ and 13 touchdowns. That would be better than Julio Jones.

The fact that Avery was cut after the season does not change his role on the team or the depth chart for 2012.

I highly doubt Austin gets 1300 yards receiving, but 1300 yards and 13 TD's is doable, but I doubt it. If he is used frequently on the ground he could rack up say 400 yards rushing (only 25 yards per game) and 900 in the air. I'm thinking more like 800 in the air (50 yards per game) and 300 yards rushing and 10 combined TD's, but that's just me and that would be a great rookie season.

 

[jurb26]

Will this suffice:

Sure he was. And he was sent packing too with nobody added because he wasn't valuable enough in that role. Getting back to Austin, I highly doubt he finishes with 1300+ and 13 touchdowns. That would be better than Julio Jones.

The fact that Avery was cut after the season does not change his role on the team or the depth chart for 2012.

I highly doubt Austin gets 1300 yards receiving, but 1300 yards and 13 TD's is doable, but I doubt it. If he is used frequently on the ground he could rack up say 400 yards rushing (only 25 yards per game) and 900 in the air. I'm thinking more like 800 in the air (50 yards per game) and 300 yards rushing and 10 combined TD's, but that's just me and that would be a great rookie season.

Yeah and I just went back and looked at the OP projections. I was way off... Under the actuals. Wow.

 

[karmarooster]

You mean you went UNDER his 424 yards (projected) receiving? Even I didn't go that low... my "pessimistic" projections now look super-inflated. I was like "well, he'll be an ok WR3, but still overvalued!"... I guess in an effort to avoid being eaten by the hordes.

And as it turns out, all those "comps" that people thought were ridiculous (DeSean, Hilton) are having MUCH better seasons.

 

[ShaHBucks]

You mean you went UNDER his 424 yards (projected) receiving? Even I didn't go that low... my "pessimistic" projections now look super-inflated. I was like "well, he'll be an ok WR3, but still overvalued!"... I guess in an effort to avoid being eaten by the hordes.

And as it turns out, all those "comps" that people thought were ridiculous (DeSean, Hilton) are having MUCH better seasons.

I ran out of "likes" for the day apparently, but I have to say I love when you get on a roll.

 

[voiceofunreason]

I'll answer yours, but do you agree with my point?

I guess you are asking how I would project his pro career based on six games, of which he hasn't played as much in last two (and looked bad as a team weeks three and four)... you can probably appreciate how that is problematic...

I may have to approach it obliquely...

we differ on a few fundamental premises... I'm exaggerating your stance, but I gave you reasons in above post (which hopefully you will respond to) why I don't think slow start is necessarily a deathblow to his career (see crabtree and demaryius, notably - they are different types of WR from austin, but that isn't the point)...

I also don't think bradford is terrible like you (though that is shared by others, possibly many others), or even mediocre, so that could lead to different conclusions...

austin was around top 25-30 in PPR leagues through three weeks...is he "really" that guy, or "really" the guy that has disappointed last three weeks?

he has probably lost a TD and few hundred return yards due to rams ST penalties...

if you are asking in another way am I prepared to throw away what I saw that I liked in college, and have i drastically changed my opinion so that I now think he will be a failure in the NFL?

the short answer is no in dynasty... in redraft, he isn't trending well...

I don't think he has suddenly lost his speed or quickness... but I think a few factors have conspired to the slow start...

on him, I think he is still getting acclimated to the speed of the game... he has danced far too much, imo (especially on punt returns), and needs to learn to do a better job of getting north south sooner...

I think he leads the league in drops (through week five?), but I don't think that was ever an issue in college, so maybe he is pressing... I don't have a long term concern with that...

my biggest concern is the incompetence of OC to use him creatively (lately they have dealt with it by playing him less, not a great sign that the OC is figuring this out)... one poster insisted that was an excuse, because he is being used just like desean jackson... I'll let my observation stand, and let others who have actually watched the rams judge for themselves if austin is in fact being used identically to jackson, and the latter's far greater success being strictly a case of players make plays, and having nothing to do with usage?

I hated English class when I was a kid and thought it was useless. Now I totally get it. Thank you.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Rams fans,

What do you think it will take for Fisher to fire Schottenheimer? More of the same? Do they have to get worse? And if so, do you expect a year for the team to work with each other in the new system? If so, we could see 2015 as the soonest Austin becomes a viable fantasy starter.

 

[Warrior]

Dropped.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Austin could, one day, develop into a nice little weapon for a creative coach who has others to draw away coverage. Like, Sean Payton in New Orleans, or Bill in New England. Problem is Austin doesn't play for those teams and won't for at least 3-5 years.

it isn't looking good now, but not convinced STL will never figure out that having him squat after a several yard "pattern" isn't an ideal way to use him.

you seem to be assuming both schotty will definitely be coach for next several years, and it is impossible he could get a clue (or i guess that he is replaced with another clueless OC).

 

[Stealthycat]

so what IS the problem with him ? why isn't STL playing him ?

 

[duaneok66]

There's an obvious answer to your question.

 

[TheFanatic]

Will this suffice:

Sure he was. And he was sent packing too with nobody added because he wasn't valuable enough in that role. Getting back to Austin, I highly doubt he finishes with 1300+ and 13 touchdowns. That would be better than Julio Jones.

The fact that Avery was cut after the season does not change his role on the team or the depth chart for 2012.

I highly doubt Austin gets 1300 yards receiving, but 1300 yards and 13 TD's is doable, but I doubt it. If he is used frequently on the ground he could rack up say 400 yards rushing (only 25 yards per game) and 900 in the air. I'm thinking more like 800 in the air (50 yards per game) and 300 yards rushing and 10 combined TD's, but that's just me and that would be a great rookie season.

Yeah, I backed off on that big time when someone pointed out the likelihood of him rushing for something like 25 a game. Seems small, but in reality it would be record setting. Not sure if I conveyed that. I was also assuming TD's would be combo through the air and ST. Hell, he started off nice with lots of catches, and then well, here we are...

 

[TheFanatic]

Rams fans,

What do you think it will take for Fisher to fire Schottenheimer? More of the same? Do they have to get worse? And if so, do you expect a year for the team to work with each other in the new system? If so, we could see 2015 as the soonest Austin becomes a viable fantasy starter.

That's the thing. They just put up big numbers on Houston so everyone is happy, but two of those TD's were D/ST. They seem to be heading in the right direction in terms of record, so that may get the guy a pass and that is a tragedy. They lost to the Falcon who are awful. They lost to the Cowboys who barely beat the Giants who had 6 TO's in the game (Sure they played Denver really well, but the rest of their resume is not so good). That guy needs to go!

 

[FUBAR]

I'll answer yours, but do you agree with my point?

I guess you are asking how I would project his pro career based on six games, of which he hasn't played as much in last two (and looked bad as a team weeks three and four)... you can probably appreciate how that is problematic...

I may have to approach it obliquely...

we differ on a few fundamental premises... I'm exaggerating your stance, but I gave you reasons in above post (which hopefully you will respond to) why I don't think slow start is necessarily a deathblow to his career (see crabtree and demaryius, notably - they are different types of WR from austin, but that isn't the point)...

I also don't think bradford is terrible like you (though that is shared by others, possibly many others), or even mediocre, so that could lead to different conclusions...

austin was around top 25-30 in PPR leagues through three weeks...is he "really" that guy, or "really" the guy that has disappointed last three weeks?

he has probably lost a TD and few hundred return yards due to rams ST penalties...

if you are asking in another way am I prepared to throw away what I saw that I liked in college, and have i drastically changed my opinion so that I now think he will be a failure in the NFL?

the short answer is no in dynasty... in redraft, he isn't trending well...

I don't think he has suddenly lost his speed or quickness... but I think a few factors have conspired to the slow start...

on him, I think he is still getting acclimated to the speed of the game... he has danced far too much, imo (especially on punt returns), and needs to learn to do a better job of getting north south sooner...

I think he leads the league in drops (through week five?), but I don't think that was ever an issue in college, so maybe he is pressing... I don't have a long term concern with that...

my biggest concern is the incompetence of OC to use him creatively (lately they have dealt with it by playing him less, not a great sign that the OC is figuring this out)... one poster insisted that was an excuse, because he is being used just like desean jackson... I'll let my observation stand, and let others who have actually watched the rams judge for themselves if austin is in fact being used identically to jackson, and the latter's far greater success being strictly a case of players make plays, and having nothing to do with usage?

I hated English class when I was a kid and thought it was useless. Now I totally get it. Thank you.

Bob's analysis is usually great.

His ingrish? Not so much.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Problem isn't Bradford. The problem is how they're using him (when they do). While it's a pipedream for Tavon to be a #1 WR, he can w/o question be a weapon on ST and offense.

Only Brian Schottenheimer would use a guy with 4.3 wheels on 3 yard curl routes. It's almost like the guy never even watched a second of Tavon Austin play. Schottenheimer shouldn't be coordinating in college, let alone the NFL. He can thank daddy.

One NFL executive believes Tavon Austin is struggling due to the Rams' inefficient quarterback play.
People seem loathe to point out that Austin's individual performance has been the primary culprit; he's dropped 6-of-41 targets and is averaging 6.6 yards per catch. He doesn't block well, and the Rams are now running the football more, limiting Austin's field time. This exec still thinks it's Sam Bradford's fault. "Little receivers don't work with inaccurate quarterbacks," said the executive. "You can get away with those guys if you have Brees or Brady. Of course, you can get away with a lot with those guys."
Source: USA Today

 

[lod01]

IDK I'm still scratching my head over this kid's usage. Perhaps he is a bit overwhelmed on this level, but I certainly haven't seen the strong evidence of this. He's had some really nice returns that were called back on penalties. Having watched those suggests to me that his ability in the open field is every bit as advertised. The first thing I have to question is why haven't they been lining him up in the backfield? If i was the OC, that's one of the first things I'd want to try with him. Run a draw or two with him, some wheel routes, sprinkle in a couple screens and send him in motion out of the backfield. This would seem like an obvious move to me to try and set up a mismatch against a LB or Safety. Like others have mentioned, all I ever see is little unimaginative three yard routes. The running game isn't scaring anyone. So the safeties and even the LB's are playing back, so when he does get the ball, he's easily contained.

Post 294 above has your answer. This was reason #1 why he was never even on my draftboard. The smaller you are the more accurate a QB, you need.

 

[karmarooster]

Problem isn't Bradford. The problem is how they're using him (when they do). While it's a pipedream for Tavon to be a #1 WR, he can w/o question be a weapon on ST and offense.

Only Brian Schottenheimer would use a guy with 4.3 wheels on 3 yard curl routes. It's almost like the guy never even watched a second of Tavon Austin play. Schottenheimer shouldn't be coordinating in college, let alone the NFL. He can thank daddy.

One NFL executive believes Tavon Austin is struggling due to the Rams' inefficient quarterback play.
People seem loathe to point out that Austin's individual performance has been the primary culprit; he's dropped 6-of-41 targets and is averaging 6.6 yards per catch. He doesn't block well, and the Rams are now running the football more, limiting Austin's field time. This exec still thinks it's Sam Bradford's fault. "Little receivers don't work with inaccurate quarterbacks," said the executive. "You can get away with those guys if you have Brees or Brady. Of course, you can get away with a lot with those guys."
Source: USA Today

Comparing Austin to the other Rams WRs:

Austin - 58.5% catch rate, 6.6 YPC, 1 TD per 20.5 targets

Givens - 44.7% catch rate, 15.9 YPC, 0 TDs (I guess the routes he runs excuses to some degree that catch rate, a bit)

Pettis - 62% catch rate, 10 YPC, 1 TD per 9.25 targets

Quick - 50% catch rate, 14 YPC, 1 TD per 14 targets

(Cook - 59% catch rate, 14 YPC, 1 TD per 18.5 targets)

Other than YPC, he's roughly in line with the others except on TDs. I expect that Givens catch rate is so bad because he's not that great, probably draws top corner most of the time, and runs deep routes. Austin's inferior TD rate is probably attributable to his size. The YPC probably attributable to his usage, the relatively low catch rate (considering the simple and short routes he runs) and high drop rate probably attributable to his own struggles.

 

[TwinTurbo]

The problem is a combination of Tavon being way undersized paired with the fact that he has arguably the worst OC in the league.

But even if the coaching staff was better, the guy is still only listed at 5' 9", 174lbs. And that's being extremely generous. He looks smaller, and probably closer to Trindon Holliday than DeSean Jackson.

He also leads the Rams WR in drops. Now that Clemens is chucking it, with Shotty still the OC, I don't see much upside for him.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

If not for a ticky tack tripping penalty, he would have had around 5-95-1 last week.

The guy looks fine as a rookie. He's never going to be the protypical #1 WR. You can write him off this year with Clemons etc... behind center. Had Bradford remained the QB, I would have kept Tavon rostered in PPR as a bye week fill in.

 

[Bobbyn2022]

Austin will be a stud. By his 3rd year he will be a Djax\Harvin type player.

 

[werdnoynek]

I saw it. But it may need to marinate a year or two.

 

[Bob Magaw]

one observation is WRs like Hopkins and Allen that were physical mismatches against DBs in college... still are in the NFL...

it takes more than just size (see BMW), but they have enough speed and quickness, and it is that combo with their size that makes them hard to handle...

austin will never be a physical mismatch, his game is about quickness, speed and elusiveness... and he doesn't have the same advantage he did in college (see Oklahoma game, one of the most dominant i've ever seen)... I do think he is still faster but more importantly quicker than most DBs he will face in the NFL, but he is still getting acclimated to the reduced advantage...

imo, he is still recalibrating angles that worked phenomenally at WV, but not as well in the NFL... once he works through that process, I think we will begin to see more of a semblance of what he flashed in college to be called the most explosive and dangerous skill position weapon in the draft, and led the rams to trade the 1.16 (manuel) and 2.16 (alonso) for the 1.8...

I agree that he hasn't burst onto the NFL scene like green or julio, but he hasn't had a terrible rookie season (if not for several penalties, could have 4 TDs)...

redraft not very exciting with clemens, but in dynasty, still thinks he can emerge as one of the tops WRs from the class.