TE 4-6: fool’s gold or league winners? (2 Viewers)

[TripItUp]

I guess the question I have for @TripItUp is where does Pitts rate this year and who are you willing to take in Redraft instead of him?

Good questions

There are over 20 players I'd take over Pitts at his #49 ADP in most leagues(NOT TE premium for example)

Per FantasyPros ADP...I don't want to list them all but near the top of the list are...

Kupp

Moore

Lockett

Diontae Johnson

Golladay

and about 15 other players.

I think you have already stated you aren't willing to pony up any capital for a TE in rounds 5 or 6... Who are you expecting to hit big and why?

I like Logan Thomas and Irv Smith the most to surpass ADP.   Both get volume and score TDs in established offenses.

 

[TripItUp]

. I think people are drafting him needing him to hit on all cylinders to reach his ceiling as a rookie (he will do better in future years). Drafting guys at their ceiling leaves no margin for error . . . and with rookies there is more risk than an established commodity.

Correct, Pitts is being drafted at his ceiling.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think people are drafting him needing him to hit on all cylinders to reach his ceiling as a rookie (he will do better in future years). Drafting guys at their ceiling leaves no margin for error . . . and with rookies there is more risk than an established commodity.

Sharks use this justification for WR and RB constantly. "I'm drafting Taylor for his ceiling - I expect him to have more receptions! luck favors the bold!" sort of thing. 

Every day on this site I hear "draft for his ceiling", yet with Pitts we're supposed to ignore what could be league-winning upside if he's primarily used as a WR and scores double digit TDs?  

I guess I don't understand the different approach for this dude as compared to others. If it's just because he's a TE, that could be a misguided argument since he may be just a really big WR who you can play at TE. 

Historically, as an IDP player, and a FBB player, those are the quirky qualifier advantages managers look for - an OF who came up as a catcher, so you can start him at C and get a dude who plays every day & ropes 20+ HR. A LB who you can plug into your DL spot and get 100+ tackles out of him. 

If you think about Pitts as a WR you can start at TE, drafting him high makes more sense & also would seem to lessen the "rookie TE" risk. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Per FantasyPros ADP...I don't want to list them all but near the top of the list are...

Kupp

Moore

Lockett

Diontae Johnson

Golladay

and about 15 other players.

I like Logan Thomas and Irv Smith the most to surpass ADP.   Both get volume and score TDs in established offenses.

I deeply question FantasyPros ADP. In live mocking I've rarely seen Kupp and Moore make it out of the early 4th. 

I wouldn't draft Lockett & his "70% of his production in a 3-game span" if you paid me. 

Of the rest, Dionte & Golladay are hardly locks for production due to a myriad of reasons. 

Sure, I'd take Kupp and Moore over Pitts, too. I don't think most would argue that. But if they're gone, I'm taking Pitts over the other 3 you listed. There might be some RBs I'd take over Pitts as well (as mentioned, Jacobs, Henderson, maybe Mike Davis) 

 

[fightingillini]

What do you think Pitts' upside is?

I would say 90/1100/10, my current projection is 70/850/6

That would be in Waller territory.

 

[TripItUp]

I deeply question FantasyPros ADP.

which ADP do you want me to use...they are the most cited.  

I don't really care which one.  I have about 20 players ranked higher than Pitts so it doesn't matter much which ADP source we use to make my point.

 

[TripItUp]

I would say 90/1100/10, my current projection is 70/850/6

That would be in Waller territory.

One of the best rookie TE seasons ever.

If you don't want to call him a TE, one of the best rookie WR seasons ever.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One of the best rookie TE seasons ever.

If you don't want to call him a TE, one of the best rookie WR seasons ever.

You may not have noticed, he's a talented kid. It's certainly possible. 

 

[TripItUp]

You may not have noticed, he's a talented kid. It's certainly possible. 

This is a game of probabilities, not possibilities.

 

[fightingillini]

Appreciate the insight.  Even if the Lions fall to the bottom 10 offenses in the league - they still would post 350-ish yards with 250 of those yards being passing due to negative game script.  There are 3 guys in that offense worth owning at their ADP and I am sorry... Hockenson is definitely one of them.  To answer your question about drafting TE over QB - positional scarcity is why you take a 200 pt/year TE over a 330 pt/year QB... draft on tho. 

Well, in my view, I see Prescott (assuming he's healthy) as an elite QB option, in the 1st tier with a decent dropoff to 2nd tier.  Prescott has potential to be the QB1 this year, that's value in Round 5.

I would take Hockenson in the 6th round, but he's not falling that far.

 

[Anarchy99]

Sharks use this justification for WR and RB constantly. "I'm drafting Taylor for his ceiling - I expect him to have more receptions! luck favors the bold!" sort of thing. 

Every day on this site I hear "draft for his ceiling", yet with Pitts we're supposed to ignore what could be league-winning upside is he's primarily used as a WR and scores double digit TDs?  

I guess I don't understand the different approach for this dude as compared to others. If it's just because he's a TE, that could be a misguided argument since he may be just a really big WR who you can play at TE. 

Historically, as an IDP player, and a FBB player, those are the quirky qualifier advantages managers look for - an OF who came up as a catcher, so you can start him at C and get a dude who plays every day & ropes 20+ HR. A LB who you can plug into your DL spot and get 100+ tackles out of him. 

If you think about Pitts as a WR you can start at TE, drafting him high makes more sense & also would seem to lessen the "rookie TE" risk. 

If I were still working at FBG's, I wouldn't rank Pitts in the #4-6 range. Sure, he COULD end up ranked there, but I would probably rank him in the #8-10 range based on historical precedent. There have been a lot of first round NFL picks as the NEXT BIG THING at TE to enter the league and almost all have put up meager numbers.

Using your analogy, if you drafted a guy that might get 20 HRs but expected him to hit 30 HR's and he hits 35, good on you. That would be a rare find and outcome. But if he only hits 18, then he was close to his expectations . . . but pretty far away from what you felt he would get. However, I would be a lot happier drafting that guy in the players projected in the 18-20 range than the 30 range. And IMO Pitts is getting drafted as a 30-35 HR player.

 

 

[TripItUp]

If I were still working at FBG's, I wouldn't rank Pitts in the #4-6 range. Sure, he COULD end up ranked there, but I would probably rank him in the #8-10 range based on historical precedent. There have been a lot of first round NFL picks as the NEXT BIG THING at TE to enter the league and almost all have put up meager numbers.

Using your analogy, if you drafted a guy that might get 20 HRs but expected him to hit 30 HR's and he hits 35, good on you. That would be a rare find and outcome. But if he only hits 18, then he was close to his expectations . . . but pretty far away from what you felt he would get. However, I would be a lot happier drafting that guy in the players projected in the 18-20 range than the 30 range. And IMO Pitts is getting drafted as a 30-35 HR player.

 

Bingo

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Well, in my view, I see Prescott (assuming he's healthy) as an elite QB option, in the 1st tier with a decent dropoff to 2nd tier.  Prescott has potential to be the QB1 this year, that's value in Round 5.

I would take Hockenson in the 6th round, but he's not falling that far.

I actually agree with your assessment and was faced with the choice of Hockenson or Dak at 5.07 and the draft coming back to me at 6.04, with most of those guys in between having taken QBs not named Dak.  I gambled and got both.  Your response is better with context.  The way you draft depends on others between you on your next picks, etc.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Using your analogy, if you drafted a guy that might get 20 HRs but expected him to hit 30 HR's and he hits 35, good on you. That would be a rare find and outcome. But if he only hits 18, then he was close to his expectations . . . but pretty far away from what you felt he would get. However, I would be a lot happier drafting that guy in the players projected in the 18-20 range than the 30 range. And IMO Pitts is getting drafted as a 30-35 HR player.

 

But this missed my point entirely. The 20 HR player qualifies as a catcher but in real life he's starting at OF. And relevant bit there is that while 20 HR is modest for an OF-er, and you could poo poo the idea of taking that dude among 30-35 HR guys ADP, the fact that FBB managers can start him at C elevates his value substantially. 

So even if I only got 18 HRs out of him, he'd still be an amazing value because he's plugged into a position that typically only starts 3/5 days, and for whom 18 HR is still a nice get. 

By qualifying as a TE, Pitts could well be a cheat-code player in that mold. More akin to the LB who qualifies at DL. When that happens (not often) it's league-winning upside from the DL position in tackle-heavy leagues. 

Sorry, I thought I'd made that pretty clear, but I may have been less so than I thought. My bad. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is a game of probabilities, not possibilities.

Probabilities determined by whom? You? 

I mean, I agree with your statement, but it's completely nebulous. 

 

[SoBeDad]

Hooper finished the 2019 season with 75 receptions for 787 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns.

That's realistic. Where would that put Pitts.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hooper finished the 2019 season with 75 receptions for 787 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns.

That's realistic. Where would that put Pitts.

Considering Hooper was used as a more traditional in-line TE, I'd say potentially substantially higher. 

I'm sure @Anarchy99 & @TripItUp would disagree.  

Hey, we all have our takes.  

 

[Anarchy99]

But this missed my point entirely. The 20 HR player qualifies as a catcher but you can start him in the OF. And relevant bit there is that while 20 HR is modest for an OF-er, and you could poo poo the idea of taking that dude among 30-35 HR guys ADP, the fact that FBB managers can start him at C elevates his value substantially. 

So even if I only got 18 HRs out of him, he'd still be an amazing value because he's plugged into a position that typically only starts 3/5 days, and for whom 18 HR is still a nice get. 

By qualifying as a TE, Pitts could well be a cheat-code player in that mold. 

Sorry, I thought I'd made that pretty clear, but I may have been less so than I thought. My bad. 

I understand that you are trying to make a case that Pitts is a high end WR playing as a TE. But suppose he is the WR55 as a rookie playing as a TE? Last year the WR55 put up 139 points in PPR leagues . . . which would have ranked as TE17.

Using your example in reverse, what if there is a C that hits 12 home runs that also qualifies at 1B and OF? Playing him at those position doesn't necessarily help his fantasy stats any.

IMO, Pitts as a rookie will be closer to a middle of the road WR than he will be to a top flight WR. He would likely have to score as a fantasy low end WR3 to end up being worth his pick as the TE4 in fantasy drafts. Yes, he COULD do that, but I would not expect that.

Even if he did produce at that level, I would be happy to let another owner find out if he could do it.

 

[SoBeDad]

Interesting that Pitts has practiced, even suited up, but I don't think he's played at all in preseason. But Chase and Waddle other the other top rookie TEs have played a bunch. 

 

[TripItUp]

Interesting that Pitts has practiced, even suited up, but I don't think he's played at all in preseason. But Chase and Waddle other the other top rookie TEs have played a bunch. 

A lot of guessing as to why, the pro-Pitts crowd wants to believe they are hiding him to gain an advantage in week 1...a la Anquan Boldin his rookie year.

It's plausible.

 

[TripItUp]

Considering Hooper was used as a more traditional in-line TE, I'd say potentially substantially higher. 

Of course, Hooper wasn't a rookie that year.

The rookie thing is a big deal.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I understand that you are trying to make a case that Pitts is a high end WR playing as a TE. But suppose he is the WR55 as a rookie playing as a TE? Last year the WR55 put up 139 points in PPR leagues . . . which would have ranked as TE17.

Given his size advantage over LB & DB, I find this a bit off though. It is far more likely that he would put numbers up that surpass the TE17 

You can put up hypothetical scenarios all day to explain why he won't be valuable, but the fact is that he is a TE who's going to play more like a WR. 

if it's that premise that you disagree with, well, time will tell which of us is correct I guess & throwing numbers like the above around are somewhat meaningless. 

Using your example in reverse, what if there is a C that hits 12 home runs that also qualifies at 1B and OF? Playing him at those position doesn't necessarily help his fantasy stats any.

Why would anyone ever possibly do that? 

That's like taking my DL / LB analogy and flipping it the other way too. It's why Mack's fantasy value fell off a cliff as a LB. Low tackle pass-rushing LB are a dime a dozen. 

100+ tackle DL are a rare commodity. 

Pitts is listed as a TE, but is expected to be used all over the field as a receiver and isn't expected to block. So why would we use my example in reverse? 

IMO, Pitts as a rookie will be closer to a middle of the road WR than he will be to a top flight WR. He would likely have to score as a fantasy low end WR3 to end up being worth his pick as the TE4 in fantasy drafts. Yes, he COULD do that, but I would not expect that.

Even if he did produce at that level, I would be happy to let another owner find out if he could do it.

OK, that's more fair. It is your opinion that he'll be more of a middle of the road WR. 

I have a different opinion. And that's ok. 

And again - I am partly arguing from a Devil's Advocate POV here because I doubt I'll pay a 4th round price for him. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Interesting that Pitts has practiced, even suited up, but I don't think he's played at all in preseason. But Chase and Waddle other the other top rookie TEs have played a bunch. 

Bubble wrap/Anquan Boldin scenario is what I've been reading. They know what he is, they don't want to give away too much or risk injury. 

There's been a lot of scrub ball this preseason. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Of course, Hooper wasn't a rookie that year.

The rookie thing is a big deal.

only if you think he's going to play TE for the Falcons. 

That part is still important. Along with the fact that Pitts is 10X the talent prospect that Hooper ever was 

 

[TripItUp]

And again - I am partly arguing from a Devil's Advocate POV here because I doubt I'll pay a 4th round price for him. 

Back up the truck!!!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Back up the truck!!!

I like him in the 5th.  I've not deviated from this. 

 

[TripItUp]

I like him in the 5th.  I've not deviated from this. 

Okay, just wanted to have you on the record. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Okay, just wanted to have you on the record. 

All you have to do is scroll back to see that as recently as this page I said I'd be likely to grab him 4.12/5.01 if I'm lucky enough to have the 1.01

And part of that is based on the luxury of having the overall RB1, which might give me the courage to take a risk elsewhere. 

I've been entirely consistent with where I've said I'd take him. I don't want any TE in the 1-4 rounds, personally. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Considering Hooper was used as a more traditional in-line TE, I'd say potentially substantially higher. 

I'm sure @Anarchy99 & @TripItUp would disagree.  

Hey, we all have our takes.  

Yes, Pitts COULD put up Hooper numbers . . . but maybe not as a rookie. Hooper was in his 4th season with the team.

Hurst is still there, so right away that somewhat skews the TE targets. Some folks will say Pitts will come in and be targeted as much as Jones was. I think Hurst is ending up being overlooked in deeper drafts, as everyone is jumping on the Pitts train.

I think all the WRs (Ridley, Gage, and others) will see a bump in targets with Jones out of the mix. I haven't given a ton of thought to projecting the Falcons and what Pitts might see mostly because I wouldn't consider him where he is getting drafted. Maybe he gets 100. If so, he would probably be projected close to where he is being drafted (TE4) . . . which as we already covered, is pretty close to his ceiling if everything goes right this year.

If there are people that feel strongly that he will do way better than that, draft away! All I can post is what I would do.

 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hurst is still there, so right away that somewhat skews the TE targets. Some folks will say Pitts will come in and be targeted as much as Jones was. I think Hurst is ending up being overlooked in deeper drafts, as everyone is jumping on the Pitts train.

I think Hurst is going to primarily be used as a blocking TE, and possible get a few receptions in 2 TE sets. I don't see him as overlooked, so much as that he'll be a FF afterthought with Pitts in the fold.  

If there are people that feel strongly that he will do way better than that, draft away! All I can post is what I would do.

 

I think it's a lively discussion. I appreciate what you're bringing to it, and even though I disagree with some of it, it's certainly not personal.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I deeply question FantasyPros ADP. 

It’s not how competitive leagues draft.

Yahoo FF uses FantasyPros for their default rankings, and casual players (home leagues, work leagues, et al) go by them. It’s like watching Jeopardy players circa 2003 go top to bottom in each category instead of hunting for Daily Doubles.

Lots of other good ADP resources out there.

 

[TripItUp]

It’s not how competitive leagues draft.

Yahoo FF uses FantasyPros for their default rankings, and casual players (home leagues, work leagues, et al) go by them. It’s like watching Jeopardy players circa 2003 go top to bottom in each category instead of hunting for Daily Doubles.

Lots of other good ADP resources out there.

I'll use whatever publicly available ADP source you guys want.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Since 2003, every Top 5 TE came from one of two categories.

• 10 or more TDs

• 90 or more targets 

• 5 had 10+ TDs but under 90 targets

• 19 had both 10+ TDs AND 90+ targets

• 64 had <10 TDs but >90 targets

(caveat - for the sake of accuracy & completeness, Andrews was Top 5 with 7 TDs and 88 targets in 14 GP. He missed two games bc of Covid. EVERY OTHER top 5 TE 2003-2020 had with 10+, 90+, or both.)

Obviously TDs are variable and not sticky from  year to year. But targets are fairly precitable. 82% of those top 5 TEs had 100+ targets. 

Now Logan Thomas had 100+ last year and it’s quite possible we’ll see another breakout from TE7-19. But based on historical data, it will be a TE who is either 1st or 2nd on his own team in targets. That eliminates just about everyone after the Big 3 and Andrew’s/Hock/Pitts. But it could happen.

This Robert Tonyan had 11 TDs (10 TDs out of 11 for Red Zone targets) - MFing unicorn getting TE3 on 56 targets (4th on GB, 5th most targeted /G.) Tonyan had 3 TDs VS ATL when they had two safeties out, two more got hurt during the game, and Adam’s + Lazard didn’t dress. I’m guessing that stuff isn’t repeatable.

I think 5 out of the top 6 TEs this year are great stand alone targets. Draft them, set it and forget it, no need for a backup TE. Pitts has that in his range of outcomes, but he has a wider range of outcomes than the other 5.

_________________

Dumbest pick in every draft? It’s often the guy who drafts QB12 - right after QB11 comes off the board - then panics with the very next pick, thinking “I’m weak at QB so I better have a good backup.”

1) he could have waited 2-3 rounds bc everyone with QB 1–11 is drafting RBs & WRs.
2) Meanwhile he’s wasted two rounds where he could’ve been getting value at those two positions.

_______________

The second dumbest draft strategy we see every year? The guys taking TEs 7 through 10 or 11 or 12 in rounds 7, 8 and 9.

The distance from TE2 to TE3 last year was 100 points (in some formats 115.) The difference from TE3 this to TE7 was 17 Points in PPR. On the season. The difference from TE7 to TE16 was 20 points for the season.

Go big or punt until the 12th round is my succinct advice.

 

[ffmail4me]

Thanks this is helpful since the Top 3 has a pretty uniform order of Kelce, Waller, Kittle.  Where did Hockenson go?   The 4-6 clump seems to vary in order based on those wanting to take a chance on Pitts, trusting Hockenson in the Lions offense, or expecting a better year from Andrews.   

1.6 Kelce

1.8 Waller

2.1 Kittle

4.5 Pitts

4.6 Hock

5.2 Andrews (mine, and I can easily admit I would have preferred Pitts or Hock here, but think Andrews was fine value at his point in the draft, don't you guys agree?)

 

[fightingillini]

1.6 Kelce

1.8 Waller

2.1 Kittle

4.5 Pitts

4.6 Hock

5.2 Andrews (mine, and I can easily admit I would have preferred Pitts or Hock here, but think Andrews was fine value at his point in the draft, don't you guys agree?)

Kittle went 2.1?  Really?  Is this a TE friendly scoring league?

 

[BobbyLayne]

PPR consensus ADP (Expert-FF Calc-MFL-RTS)

• Kelce 1.07
  
• Waller 3.01
  
• Kittle 3.03
  
• Pitts 4.12
  
• Andrews 5.05
  
• Hockenson 5.11 
  

 

[TripItUp]

PPR consensus ADP (Expert-FF Calc-MFL-RTS)

• Kelce 1.07
  
• Waller 3.01
  
• Kittle 3.03
  
• Pitts 4.12
  
• Andrews 5.05
  
• Hockenson 5.11 
  

Pass on Kelce in the first

Maybe on Waller at 3.1

Pass on Kittle at 3.03

Hard pass on Pitts at 4.12

Hard Pass on Andrews at 5.05

Pass on Hockenson at 5.11.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

PPR consensus ADP (Expert-FF Calc-MFL-RTS)

• Kelce 1.07
  
• Waller 3.01
  
• Kittle 3.03
  
• Pitts 4.12
  
• Andrews 5.05
  
• Hockenson 5.11 
  

positional drafting will play into this as well. If you’re sitting at a turn knowing there are 20+ picks between your picks, you’re either waiting or reaching.

So while some might see someone post that they took Pitts 4.12/5.01, it’s likely more a statement that they wouldn’t be able to wait for 6.12 for any of them. 

Drafting from the 1 spot per consensus ADP it seems like if you miss the big 3, you’re taking whichever 4-6 you feel has the most upside at 5.01 regardless. 

If I get 1.01 I might pull the trigger if Waller makes the turn. He’s just so consistently good.  That’s about the only way I’d invest in a top 3. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Pass on Kelce in the first

agreed

Maybe on Waller at 3.1

also agreed 

as for the rest I’m not sure what the difference between a pass and a hard pass is. Either way you aren’t taking the player. lol

 

[ffmail4me]

Kittle went 2.1?  Really?  Is this a TE friendly scoring league?

Yes, 1.5 PPR. 

 

[ffmail4me]

positional drafting will play into this as well. If you’re sitting at a turn knowing there are 20+ picks between your picks, you’re either waiting or reaching.

So while some might see someone post that they took Pitts 4.12/5.01, it’s likely more a statement that they wouldn’t be able to wait for 6.12 for any of them. 

This is exactly why I knew I had to take Andrews when I did. I had the 2nd pick in the draft order, had 20 selections before my 6.11, and 6 of the teams that had 2 picks before my next pick had zero TEs. I felt pretty damn sure that Andrews, Fant, and Thomas would be gone by 6.11 in a 1.5 PPR league. 

 

[fightingillini]

A lot of us are saying.....Pass on Kelce in Round 1.  Would be interesting to see what teams look like when they took Kelce in Round 1.

I play in a 10 team superflex league and have the 9th pick....1/2 PPR.  I am considering Kelce with either pick 9 or 12.  But I can get away with it much easier, since WRs go later in this league.  That said, it isn't my first option. 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Kelce has been a league winner for 4-5 seasons in a row. I grabbed him @1.02 in FFPC a few weeks ago with absolutely no regrets. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

A lot of us are saying.....Pass on Kelce in Round 1.  Would be interesting to see what teams look like when they took Kelce in Round 1.

I play in a 10 team superflex league and have the 9th pick....1/2 PPR.  I am considering Kelce with either pick 9 or 12.  But I can get away with it much easier, since WRs go later in this league.  That said, it isn't my first option. 

There is no getting around the fact that you’re going to be weak somewhere. That’s the opportunity cost of taking Kelce. RB1 is going to be an RB2. Or your WR1 is going to be a fantasy football WR2. That reverberates throughout the draft for several rounds. Other teams WR3 is better than your WR2. Your RB4 is equivalent to someone else’s RB3.

Eventually this equalizes when your league mates start taking quarterbacks & tight ends. But it kind of throws off my roster construction... I feel I am always behind, at least for a couple of rounds. The question is whether your first round advantage at TE and exceed’s the disadvantage have at running back and wide receiver for the next 3 or rounds.

 

[TripItUp]

My leagues are typically very competitive...really hard to take Kelce in the first and recover.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

My leagues are typically very competitive...really hard to take Kelce in the first and recover.

Out of curiosity, where did the Kelce owned teams finish in these leagues during the last 4-5 seasons?

 

[-jb-]

agreed

also agreed 

as for the rest I’m not sure what the difference between a pass and a hard pass is. Either way you aren’t taking the player. lol

Hard passes are typically harder than passes, but not always. Usually. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hard passes are typically harder than passes, but not always. Usually. 

Right. Right. 

 

[Anarchy99]

My leagues are typically very competitive...really hard to take Kelce in the first and recover.

The problem in most leagues in taking TE or QB first round is people are overpaying for the prior season’s numbers. 

Kelce scored 60+ more points than the season before. If you take him in the first and he drops off to 2019 numbers, he would still be the #1 TE but his value would be cut in half.

The same thing happened with Mahomes. He threw 50 TD and was a first round pick the following season. And tossed half as many TD. You can’t afford that big a drop off in Round 1.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

41-37