TE 4-6: fool’s gold or league winners? (1 Viewer)

[BobbyLayne]

Out of curiosity, where did the Kelce owned teams finish in these leagues during the last 4-5 seasons?

In my oldest redraft:

• 2016 3rd - TE4, 6th round. (Gronk went mid-1st, missed half the year, guy lost his last 3 to finish 7-6, barely qualified, won quarters and semis. Stupid playoff results. Yes I got bounced 1st round shaddup.)
  
• 2017 11th, TE3, 4th round. Gronk went 2nd round, finished 5th. I-sheet-you-not, the Giants homer spent a 3rd round pick on rookie Evan Engram (TE5) on his way to 8th. I’m not saying anything to Pitts’ hype beasts, my Lord that is embarrassing.
  
• 2018 4th. You ain’t seen n-n-n-nothin' yet Here's something, here's something you're never gonna fff-forget In the first year we added T to the W/R Flex spot, buddy from Long Island took Gronk/Kelce at the 2/3 turn. Just no. Make it stop.
  
• 2019 7th Adams/Kelce at the 1/2 turn was not a winning strategy.
  
• 2020 7th, Kelce went 2.10 but actually Kittle went first at 2.03 and finished 4th.
  

 

[candian fantasy guy]

In my oldest redraft:

• 2016 3rd - TE4, 6th round. (Gronk went mid-1st, missed half the year, guy lost his last 3 to finish 7-6, barely qualified, won quarters and semis. Stupid playoff results. Yes I got bounced 1st round shaddup.)
  
• 2017 11th, TE3, 4th round. Gronk went 2nd round, finished 5th. I-sheet-you-not, the Giants homer spent a 3rd round pick on rookie Evan Engram (TE5) on his way to 8th. I’m not saying anything to Pitts’ hype beasts, my Lord that is embarrassing.
  
• 2018 4th. You ain’t seen n-n-n-nothin' yet Here's something, here's something you're never gonna fff-forget In the first year we added T to the W/R Flex spot, buddy from Long Island took Gronk/Kelce at the 2/3 turn. Just no. Make it stop.
  
• 2019 7th Adams/Kelce at the 1/2 turn was not a winning strategy.
  
• 2020 7th, Kelce went 2.10 but actually Kittle went first at 2.03 and finished 4th.
  

Last year in the FFPC, which uses 1.5 PPR for TE's, Kelce was one of a dozen of players with an ownership of over 14% of teams that made it to the tournament(Qualified). Meaning they finished top 2 in the regular season or won the league as a 3rd or 4th seed = qualified

Of that dozen, only Kamara, Cook and Jones(12%) were RB's or players drafted in the first 20 picks. The rest were QB's like J Allen, K Murray, R Wilson and T Hill and WR's like Coutee, Diggs, Metcalf and Lockett(13.85%).

If I drop the the percentage to 10%, then the waters get even more muddy as there are no additional top 20 picks involved. 

I would have to say that the FFPC is pretty fierce competition overall. 

 

[Payne]

Do not get the Hock love at all. Stafford is gone everyone and the WR's are no threat. He and Swift will be the focus of the defense. Give me Fant later. Think he is being vastly overlooked. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Do not get the Hock love at all. Stafford is gone everyone and the WR's are no threat. He and Swift will be the focus of the defense. Give me Fant later. Think he is being vastly overlooked. 

There is definitely a lot to like about Noah Fant. He crossed the necessary threshold (for Top 5 potential) of ninety targets last year with 93. Had a Top Ten YAC. Superb athlete with good measurables.

Negatives holding him back from outperforming his ADP:

15.4% slot percentage for Fant ranked 55th. His 5.8% “wide” percentage ranked 94th.  His average depth of target of 7.1 yards? 67th. That was with Sutton out all year and as the second target behind a rookie WR.

Jeudy is poised to breakout and if Sutton returns to anything approaching his 2019 form, I’m not sure I see him increasing his market share. He’ll probably finish third on the Broncos for targets, and it’s rare for Top 5 TEs to not be a Top Two target on their own team. Long term outlook is fantastic, love the player.

Hock will likely see 35-45 more targets. Fant would have to be uber efficient and have 10+ TDs to reach Top 5. Those things could happen but thinking about range of outcomes it seems to be a low probability.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Still homing in on my strategy, but I've found I've been getting Fant in a lot of mocks. Not sure how I feel about that. Most recent one I tried to switch it up a little and took Tonyan a round or two earlier. Definitely wasn't as excited about that. 

I feel like I need at least some prospect of a high ceiling. Fant has that. As for Tonyan, we just saw it last year. He may still be decent given his QB, but no way he sees 2020 TD numbers again.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Jeudy is poised to breakout and if Sutton returns to anything approaching his 2019 form, I’m not sure I see him increasing his market share. He’ll probably finish third on the Broncos for targets, and it’s rare for Top 5 TEs to not be a Top Two target on their own team. Long term outlook is fantastic, love the player.

I loved Sutton heading into last year, but I'm increasingly pessimistic based on what I'm hearing out of camp. I think he could be the classic "wait a year after the ACL tear" guy.

If I'm right, does that make Fant the No. 2 target in Denver? Not sure I see anyone else as a major threat. Obviously don't love the QB situation but he looked pretty good with Lock last year before he got hurt.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Still homing in on my strategy, but I've found I've been getting Fant in a lot of mocks. Not sure how I feel about that. Most recent one I tried to switch it up a little and took Tonyan a round or two earlier. Definitely wasn't as excited about that. 

I feel like I need at least some prospect of a high ceiling. Fant has that. As for Tonyan, we just saw it last year. He may still be decent given his QB, but no way he sees 2020 TD numbers again.

the challenge with Fant is with Jeudy & Sutton, he’s 3rd in line. And he has a somewhat low % of routes compared to other TEs that get more targets. 

I love the talent, I’m not a fan of his situation: 

and I’m way way out on Tonyan. I sold high last year in dynasty after a cheap pickup. 

Guys who score that many TDs typically need a lot more than a couple targets a week. His floor is so low it’s basically TD or bust.

I’d be more likely to buy on a Henry / Engram combo way late than pay the ADP on Tonyan or Fant. I think they’ll finish near Fant. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I loved Sutton heading into last year, but I'm increasingly pessimistic based on what I'm hearing out of camp. I think he could be the classic "wait a year after the ACL tear" guy.

If I'm right, does that make Fant the No. 2 target guy in Denver? Not sure I see anyone else as a major threat.

I think Sutton is going to come back with a bang. He’s being under-drafted at his ADP. 

IMO Fant is competing with the WR3, and whichever is the preferred receiving backs for targets. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

I loved Sutton heading into last year, but I'm increasingly pessimistic based on what I'm hearing out of camp. I think he could be the classic "wait a year after the ACL tear" guy.

If I'm right, does that make Fant the No. 2 target in Denver? Not sure I see anyone else as a major threat. Obviously don't love the QB situation but he looked pretty good with Lock last year before he got hurt.

Well that is certainly something I have pondered. I love Sutton, he  profiles as a classic X receiver & it is the perfect complement to Judy and his precise route running.

We’ve all been seeing the pictures of him playing with the knee brace on the outside of his uniform during drills and practice. We’ve heard what the coaches have to say. And it’s just one of those cases where I don’t even know if it’s the physical recovery but rather just the mental block.

I’m betting on him making that next step of learning to trust his body again. But I couldn’t fault anyone who wanted to see it before the6 believe it.

Denver has about 6 really good  pass catchers at WR/TE, and 2-3 that could jump to Pro Bowl this year or next. If Lock makes progression. Or Teddy plays out of his mind. (Ha! Just kidding.) Or if they sign or trade for an elite vet to run things.

 

Loaded for bear under the right leadership.

Fant is getting close to being an elite TE. Could happen this year, they don’t ask him to block much. Not a question of talent but rather just the way they deploy him + the limitations of the two current signal callers. 

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I did my draft board the other night and have listened to a bunch of pods. This is for drafting at the 11 in a full PPR. I'm treating TE as one of the most important spots so if one drops to me where I have them ranked, they're my guy. I'll be tracking when team 12 picks up his TE and might get cute at 7.11 with QB but other than that, here's my strategy.

1.11- Kelce is my top target if he falls to me. Would have to go RB at 2.02. 2.02 is about 6 spots too high for Waller.

3.11- If Waller or Kittle drop to me, take here in lieu of a WR. - looks like neither will fall to me given ADP but c'est la vie.

5.11- Hock-Andrews-Pitts- Their projections are all even or slightly above with the WRs in this range (in terms of value above last starter, 8.8 ppg for TE vs. 12.0 ppg for last starter WR). Other than Higgins . If Hock drops to me here I'm going to do a happy dance. 

7.11- Fant- Logan Thomas. Looks like neither will fall to me here and that's fine. Both are much less comfy for me at this cost than any of the previous 6. I really think that Thomas is going to be on the field a lot and that Fitz is going to go to him. I actually think YOLO ball and Logan Thomas' size and catch ability will be a fit. Fant, there's a really appealing ceiling for me. Might end up being TE10 but whatever.

9.11- Higbee, Irv, Tonyan. Maybe Godert. Higbee hype, whatever. These 3 are a cut above, Godert maybe. Have to figure this one out. 

11.11 Gisecki, Jonnu Smith. 

13.11- Engram, Gronk, Henry

15.11- Cook, Kmet, Firkser, Everett.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

A ferw players I would rather take over Hockenson right now per FantasyPros ADP...

Aiyuk

Henderson

Tee Higgins

He's actually lower than I thought he would be there...he's obviously going much higher in my FFPC 1.5 PPR TE premium best balls.

I got Hockenson at the 5.14/6.01 turn - all those guys were gone - Henderson long gone.

 

[Payne]

I don't know...I just have a gut feeling going Fant / Thomas / Higbee later is a better play than Hock in the 5th. 

Just my gut as a Lions homer. 

 

[ratbast]

42 minutes ago, Payne said:

 

[ratbast]

Hocks floor is one of the best at TE this year. That’s what makes him at least 6th. Kelse, Waller and Andrews all have good floors. Kittle and Pitts are lower floors higher upside in my head. Fant is close, I think he’s 7th. 

 

[mbuehner]

My buckets are:

-Kelce/Waller

-Kittle/Andrews

- Whoever is left in the 10th round

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

I don't know...I just have a gut feeling going Fant / Thomas / Higbee later is a better play than Hock in the 5th. 

Just my gut as a Lions homer. 

Well, where would you draft Hock?  Say, you are with a bunch of like-minded people and he slides to the 6th or 7th?  Is he on your DND and why?  Players make plays... Hock is a talented dude.  You think he is just going to fall off a cliff with Goff at QB?  TyWill, St. Brown could be decent.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well that is certainly something I have pondered. I love Sutton, he  profiles as a classic X receiver & it is the perfect complement to Judy and his precise route running.

We’ve all been seeing the pictures of him playing with the knee brace on the outside of his uniform during drills and practice. We’ve heard what the coaches have to say. And it’s just one of those cases where I don’t even know if it’s the physical recovery but rather just the mental block.

I’m betting on him making that next step of learning to trust his body again. But I couldn’t fault anyone who wanted to see it before the6 believe it.

Denver has about 6 really good  pass catchers at WR/TE, and 2-3 that could jump to Pro Bowl this year or next. If Lock makes progression. Or Teddy plays out of his mind. (Ha! Just kidding.) Or if they sign or trade for an elite vet to run things.

 

Loaded for bear under the right leadership.

Fant is getting close to being an elite TE. Could happen this year, they don’t ask him to block much. Not a question of talent but rather just the way they deploy him + the limitations of the two current signal callers. 

FWIW I just read something where Sutton was quoted as saying he trusted his knee. It’ll see if I can find it.

Not the one, but positive for sure:

https://worldsportstale.com/nfl/courtland-sutton-trusts-his-knee-and-his-wheels-its-time-for-broncos-to-give-him-a-test-drive/

“From a distance, it’s like Pittsburgh never happened. Except for the scars.

“There was one day in particular,” Broncos guard Graham Glasgow recalled. “(Sutton) might’ve had two big catches in a row, like two catches over 20 yards.

“I hadn’t seen him out there in a while. And I was just like, ‘Is that14?’”

It was. The Courtland Sutton of old, treating gravity and cornerbacks with equal disdain, engine purring loud enough to wake the dead. Some cars are just too pretty to keep idling in the garage forever.”

this wasn’t where he said he trusted it though - I’ll have to keep looking. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My buckets are:

-Kelce/Waller

-Kittle/Andrews

- Whoever is left in the 10th round

That’s kind where I am, but I like the 10th rounders selectively. I’m a bit down on Fant (especially now with a “lower body injury” (making me flash back to Miles Sanders last preseason). I’m still high on Logan Thomas. If I miss him, I’m probably waiting for some ragtag combo of Jonnu Smith, Evan Engramx Hunter Henry, etc. and hoping whatever advantages I gained at QB/WR/RB by missing on an elite TE will help to offset my sucking at the position. Just like almost every year after Gates retired. Somehow I always managed to snag a share of Gates. :(   

 

[TripItUp]

I don't know...I just have a gut feeling going Fant / Thomas / Higbee later is a better play than Hock in the 5th. 

Just my gut as a Lions homer. 

You can throw Irv Smith and maybe even Jonnu Smith into that conversation as well.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You can throw Irv Smith and maybe even Jonnu Smith into that conversation as well.

I like Jonnu. Heck, at the ADP he & Henry are basically free, so yeah - agree they’re good late round targets. I suspect BB wants to get back to those winning ways with Gronk/Hernandez, only a little less murdery, ideally. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I like Jonnu. Heck, at the ADP he & Henry are basically free, so yeah - agree they’re good late round targets. I suspect BB wants to get back to those winning ways with Gronk/Hernandez, only a little less murdery, ideally. 

One would think that shelling out $87.5 million for Henry and Smith, NE would try to involve them in the offense.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One would think that shelling out $87.5 million for Henry and Smith, NE would try to involve them in the offense.

My thought also, yes.

Plus it plays to the strengths of both Cam (who’s arm may be diminished) and Jones, since TEs are typically very rookie friendly targets. 

 

[Payne]

Well, where would you draft Hock?  Say, you are with a bunch of like-minded people and he slides to the 6th or 7th?  Is he on your DND and why?  Players make plays... Hock is a talented dude.  You think he is just going to fall off a cliff with Goff at QB?  TyWill, St. Brown could be decent.  

No, I just like the value at other positions where Hock is being drafted. I think Higbee with Stafford can be had much later and produce close numbers. 

 

[gbill2004]

I think Zach Ertz and OJ Howard could be great values this season. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think Zach Ertz and OJ Howard could be great values this season. 

TB seems pretty crowded with Gronk, Howard & Brate. 

Ertz will potential siphon value from Goedert, but I don’t really think it’ll be enough to have stand-alone value unless Goedert gets hurt. 

 

[gbill2004]

TB seems pretty crowded with Gronk, Howard & Brate. 

Ertz will potential siphon value from Goedert, but I don’t really think it’ll be enough to have stand-alone value unless Goedert gets hurt. 

We can agree to disagree then. Howard had some nice productions and targets with Brady last season in the 4 games before getting injured. Brate is a blocker and Gronk is always banged up plus he isn't getting any younger. 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

We can agree to disagree then. Howard had some nice productions and targets with Brady last season in the 4 games before getting injured. Brate is a blocker and Gronk is always banged up plus he isn't getting any younger. 

I am grabbing Howard late everywhere I can, he's a great 2nd or 3rd TE. If he doesn't workout, then he will be an easy drop a few weeks into the season.

 

[gbill2004]

I am grabbing Howard late everywhere I can, he's a great 2nd or 3rd TE. If he doesn't workout, then he will be an easy drop a few weeks into the season.

Exactly. And he's still only 26 years old. Not like he's a washed up bum. Guy is in his prime. 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Exactly. And he's still only 26 years old. Not like he's a washed up bum. Guy is in his prime. 

and he was pretty decent last season in less than 4 games. 2TDS and 19 targets!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

We can agree to disagree then. Howard had some nice productions and targets with Brady last season in the 4 games before getting injured. Brate is a blocker and Gronk is always banged up plus he isn't getting any younger. 

I like the dude. It’s not personal against Howard. But Gronk is the TE1 there and as the year went on & Gronk got into better shape, his usage increased.

Howard has been dinged up already this preseason, which is more of the same for a dude who’s had all the tools except availability over the years. And coming off of An Achilles tear, I don’t know what to expect of him in terms of burst.  Not to mention the drops that plagued him in the last preseasons game (which Arians just commented on recently, saying it was “shaking off rust”) 

And Brate is also a frequent contributor at TE, and has been very reliable for the Bucs.

if Howard were the only dude in TB i’d be very high on him. Age, athleticism, skills - I just don’t see where the targets come from, especially considering TB’s trio of Uber talented WRs and now Gio Bernard, pass catching specialist RB. So not only is he competing for 4th best target share, he’s competing with 2 other TE & the RBs for it. 

If Gronk gets hurt I could see a path to relevance. Otherwise I don’t think Howard is roster-able in 12 team leagues. 

I won’t tell anyone to not draft him. He’s basically free. But he’s pretty unlikely to win anyone a game this year, much less a league. Gotta get target share to be relevant. I just don’t see how that’s possible for him on that team with so many weapons. 

good luck with him. Nothing personal - i agree to disagree about this player.

 

[TripItUp]

Hocks floor is one of the best at TE this year. 

I would feel more confident with this statement if Hock didn't have the injury history.

 

[gbill2004]

and he was pretty decent last season in less than 4 games. 2TDS and 19 targets!

Exactly. Not sure what's up with this Hot Sauce Guy. Maybe he missed out on Howard in his league...

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

There is definitely a lot to like about Noah Fant. He crossed the necessary threshold (for Top 5 potential) of ninety targets last year with 93. Had a Top Ten YAC. Superb athlete with good measurables.

Negatives holding him back from outperforming his ADP:

15.4% slot percentage for Fant ranked 55th. His 5.8% “wide” percentage ranked 94th.  His average depth of target of 7.1 yards? 67th. That was with Sutton out all year and as the second target behind a rookie WR.

Jeudy is poised to breakout and if Sutton returns to anything approaching his 2019 form, I’m not sure I see him increasing his market share. He’ll probably finish third on the Broncos for targets, and it’s rare for Top 5 TEs to not be a Top Two target on their own team. Long term outlook is fantastic, love the player.

Hock will likely see 35-45 more targets. Fant would have to be uber efficient and have 10+ TDs to reach Top 5. Those things could happen but thinking about range of outcomes it seems to be a low probability.

Hamler is going to he the slot in Denver. Way too much competition for targets

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

No, I just like the value at other positions where Hock is being drafted. I think Higbee with Stafford can be had much later and produce close numbers. 

Talented target hog on a bad team and likely to play from behind?  Higbee played more in the slot than Everett last year and was on the field significantly more.  Everyone seems to think Stafford and Higbee are going to have this magical chemistry and he will be a TE5, but I seriously don't see it.  What if his chemistry is better with Woods and Kupp and Higbee sees 2 balls a game?  What value are you getting in the 6th that you haven't gotten rounds 1-5, making Hockenson an easy DND.

 

[TripItUp]

Talented target hog on a bad team and likely to play from behind?  

That's never been healthy and has a downgrade at QB on a forecasted bad offense likely limiting redzone opportunities.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Exactly. Not sure what's up with this Hot Sauce Guy. Maybe he missed out on Howard in his league...

I just posted a long and detailed explanation of why I’m not a believer in Howard. 

Why attempt to project/assign some weird motive for why I am not on board with picking him?

Weird way to have a civilized discussion, friend. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hamler is going to he the slot in Denver. Way too much competition for targets

at the end of the day, that’s the issue with a lot of these fam favorite late TEs.

Targets.  

If they’re 4th or later in targets, and if they aren’t running enough routes to even be considered for a leading share of targets, they’re not going to be productive. 

Someone mentioned Higbee’s usage & targets last year. I was high on Higbee until I looked into that a couple weeks ago. Dude was on the field a lot & was hardly targeted, so it’s really hard to get excited about him. I realize that now he’s considered the presumptive target hog with Everett gone, but what’s his place in the pecking order? After Woods, Kupp, the RBS, possibly their WR3 as well, whoever that shakes out to be. 

I want to believe in Higbee at his ADP, but I just don’t see a reason to get excited about him as compared to Jonu Smith, Engram, or 6-8 other dudes available 5-6 rounds later. 

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

It seems I might be in the minority of everyone on Hock, but I love him.  The only thing you can look for with TE is opportunity and in a PPR - Hock is the only guy in town.  

I can't see myself taking Higbee because he has done very little with the chances he has been given.  I read this article by Andrew Cooper: https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/AndrewCooper/110083/2021-nfl-draft-guide-ultimate-te-draft-guide-the-elite/ - thanks to this community discussing it earlier.  I thought it was a pretty compelling read.  I was open to waiting for a TE to drop, but I think you will be constantly chasing production from a platoon of TE's - scares me. 

Just read the whole series. Holy #### is that useful. Cooper clearly is aiming to be to late-round TEs what JJ Zachariason is to late-round QBs, and I gotta say, it's working. (Also love the constant shade thrown Gase's way). He's really developed a great process for evaluating the position. @Hot Sauce Guy was already nudging me off my early love for Fant, and Cooper has mostly convinced me (although I still may follow his strategy of making Fant my Yin). For the late-round fliers with upside, he makes a good case for Kmet, Engram and maybe one of the NE guys.

 

[TripItUp]

Well, lookee here...I must by psychic...per CBS 1 hour ago.

Some people just don't want to hear it...likely dynasty owners.

Lions' T.J. Hockenson: Managing shoulder injury

1 hr ago

Coach Dan Campbell revealed Tuesday that Hockenson is dealing with a AC joint issue in his shoulder, Chris Burke of The Athletic reports.

Hockenson has been dealing with the injury for the past couple weeks, though the nature of the issue was previously undisclosed. The 24-year-old is participating at practice this week, and there isn't much concern about him being ready for the Sept. 12 season opener aga

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just read the whole series. Holy #### is that useful.

it’s the best thing I’ve ever read about TEs. 

someone here shared it with me but I promised to not share it here as they draft with a bunch of people here. The timing of reading it was right as I was starting to doubt Higbee. Then I read that & wow was I blown away. I was just scratching the surface. 

cat’s out of the bag now. 

Ever since I read it, my late TE targets have flipped on their head. The common misconception is to evaluate talent.

Talent without targets is worthless in FF.  they need be among their team lead in targets and/or be on the field running routes a significant amount. That’s it. Nothing else really matters. They can be an athletic freak, it won’t make them a top 12 TE without catching the ball. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well, lookee here...I must by psychic...per CBS 1 hour ago.

Some people just don't want to hear it...likely dynasty owners.

He was reported as injured like 2 days back, but yeah - he’s already banged up. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Also, anyone want to make any wagers as to how Tonyan will fare this year?

he’s my candidate for biggest bust at his average draft position for 2021

There’s simply no chance he repeats his TD prowess with so few targets. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

He was reported as injured like 2 days back, but yeah - he’s already banged up. 

He was in a red jersey Monday. Went bs k to full contact yesterday. No biggie.

_______________

Here’s the thing on targets. They are earned. Anyone who doubts Hock should read an OTA or TC report. Pick any beat: Tim Twentyman, Mike O’Hara, Kyle Meinke, Justin Rigers, Chris Burke. If there’s a Goff mention, 80% chance it’s one of these 5 observations on ANY given day:

• still struggling this or that 
  
• Swift and/or Jamaal are impossible to cover 
  
• ARSB continues to build on his rapport, another outstanding practice 
  
• Hock - as we’ve often reported - is the only pass catcher Goff will throw to in tight coverage
  
• TJH made a spectacular play when he....
  

Day after day after day.

__________

Goff isn’t that good? Bad RZ offense? Try this: pick any year 2016-20, compare top 5 TEs with their QBs. 1-2 lousy ones every year. Bradford, QB15 Cam, bad Eli, bad year Carr, Mariota, Nate freaking Mullens.

Olsen, Walker & Waller all put up a top 4 seasons 2016-19 with 3 TDs.

Always hurt? Legitimate concern. Like his best friend/mentor/college teammate Kittle, he only knows how to go balls to the wall. No plays off. Fearless. By the way, he played 16 games last year with a 77% snap share. He did deal with a couple injuries the second half of 2019. and he is a football player. So yep, velocity + mass, et al.

_______________

While many sites offer projections,  very few list targets. Two of the more respected guys in the business [Mike Clay & JJZ, both skew conservative] put Hock at 120+ off a 20% market share. I’m a random guy on the internet but IMO it will be closer to 23-24% (135-145.) 

Last year his market share was 18% - 101 targets. 350 targets departed Detroit since the end of last season.

As noted earlier, there are two paths to Top 5 TE 2003-2020: 

• 10+ TDs (5 times)
  
• 90 + targets (64 times)
  
• both 10 TDs and 90+ targets (19 times)
  
• 82% of Top 5 TEs had 100 + targets
  

______________…

Since 2012, a total of 28 tight ends have reached 115+ targets in a season. Only ONE of the 28 finished worse than TE5 in half-PPR, that being Dennis Pitta in 2016. Even a low-end T.J. Hockenson target projection is very likely to provide TE5 value as his stone-minimum floor.

_______________

tl; dr

Hock is good, so jot that down.

 

[[icon]]

Solid post Bobby

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He was in a red jersey Monday. Went bs k to full contact yesterday. No biggie.

_______________

Here’s the thing on targets. They are earned. Anyone who doubts Hock should read an OTA or TC report. Pick any beat: Tim Twentyman, Mike O’Hara, Kyle Meinke, Justin Rigers, Chris Burke. If there’s a Goff mention, 80% chance it’s one of these 5 observations on ANY given day:

• still struggling this or that 
  
• Swift and/or Jamaal are impossible to cover 
  
• ARSB continues to build on his rapport, another outstanding practice 
  
• Hock - as we’ve often reported - is the only pass catcher Goff will throw to in tight coverage
  
• TJH made a spectacular play when he....
  

Day after day after day.

__________

Goff isn’t that good? Bad RZ offense? Try this: pick any year 2016-20, compare top 5 TEs with their QBs. 1-2 lousy ones every year. Bradford, QB15 Cam, bad Eli, bad year Carr, Mariota, Nate freaking Mullens.

Olsen, Walker & Waller all put up a top 4 seasons 2016-19 with 3 TDs.

Always hurt? Legitimate concern. Like his best friend/mentor/college teammate Kittle, he only knows how to go balls to the wall. No plays off. Fearless. By the way, he played 16 games last year with a 77% snap share. He did deal with a couple injuries the second half of 2019. and he is a football player. So yep, velocity + mass, et al.

_______________

While many sites offer projections,  very few list targets. Two of the more respected guys in the business [Mike Clay & JJZ, both skew conservative] put Hock at 120+ off a 20% market share. I’m a random guy on the internet but IMO it will be closer to 23-24% (135-145.) 

Last year his market share was 18% - 101 targets. 350 targets departed Detroit since the end of last season.

As noted earlier, there are two paths to Top 5 TE 2003-2020: 

• 10+ TDs (5 times)
  
• 90 + targets (64 times)
  
• both 10 TDs and 90+ targets (19 times)
  
• 82% of Top 5 TEs had 100 + targets
  

______________…

Since 2012, a total of 28 tight ends have reached 115+ targets in a season. Only ONE of the 28 finished worse than TE5 in half-PPR, that being Dennis Pitta in 2016. Even a low-end T.J. Hockenson target projection is very likely to provide TE5 value as his stone-minimum floor.

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tl; dr

Hock is good, so jot that down.

I’m in on Hock if he falls to me at ADP. 

I like him because I can build up depth at 2 positions & then take him. 2 RB, 2 WR + Hock feels like a winning start. The trouble is that he’s likely to be the last KC the elite to go, so waiting on him is risky. 

But I also have pretty good contingency plans from rounds 9 ~>  

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

That's never been healthy and has a downgrade at QB on a forecasted bad offense likely limiting redzone opportunities.

Never been healthy?  Missed 4 games... are you avoiding guys like Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey?  I get it dude.  You hate Hockenson.  I think he can easily be in the top 3 and undoubtedly in top 5 as far as TEs go.  I've outlined why, after Hock and Andrews, it turns to a dart throw - Unfortunately, I include Pitts on that dart throw - though, he is the only plausible dart throw given opportunity I see happening. 

Well, lookee here...I must by psychic...per CBS 1 hour ago.

Some people just don't want to hear it...likely dynasty owners.

Guy is living in your head space rent free.  I think this is more of you trying to formulate any/every reason you're against Hockenson but he is cleared for practice and a very likely starter in Week 1.  Opportunity + Talent = Fantasy Production.  He is going to be given plenty of opportunity and I think his targets exceed what the Stafford-ran offense allotted him.  You want to talk about QB play and offensive talent.  You should do yourself a favor and compare Jared Goff v. Derek Carr stats.  They are strikingly similar and look at the numbers Waller has put up. 

You seem so high on Stafford - you should forego drafting a QB in the first 6 rounds... take Hockenson and grab Stafford in the 9th or 10th.  

 

[Anarchy99]

Exactly. Not sure what's up with this Hot Sauce Guy. Maybe he missed out on Howard in his league...

I'm with the Sauce that's Hot. It's not just the TE position. Gronk was getting his sea legs when he first came back and evolved as the season came on. They also added AB halfway through the year. Now they added Gio. There's only one football. Howard will likely be 6th on the team in targets and might struggle to see 50 targets. In normal sized leagues with limited roster space, I'd rather not burn a roster spot on an extra TE with a limited role.

 

[Ardbeg4ever]

As I Lions fan, Stafford is not good at throwing passes with touch to hit players in stride close to the line of scrimmage.  He is great at zipping intermediate and deep.  Even Calvin Johnson sort of gave Stafford a back-handed compliment on how mangled his fingers are.  Goff just may be better at that.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Unfortunately, I include Pitts on that dart throw - though, he is the only plausible dart throw given opportunity I see happening. 

The thing about Pitts is, he checks every box except experience. And with the stigma (warranted) of 1st year TEs, I get it. 

That said, he should be:

2nd on his team in targets. 

Among his team leaders in routes run 

A primary RZ target 

The only things he has working against him: 

Experience - he's a rookie TE  

ADP - late 4th - early 5th  

The 1st negative is somewhat mitigated by what we should know - that he will be lining up all over the field and isn't expected to do much, if any blocking. 

The second is what it is - it's a bit high for my tastes too, but he's the ultimate risk/reward player since he has league-winning upside. If he's an 80 reception,1K yard receiver with 8 TDs, he's going to be right there with Kelce value-wise. 

I'm not saying he's going to do that. I'm saying it's within the range of possible outcomes.  And that's why his ADP is so high. 

Again, I'm more likely to invest in Waller in the 2nd or Hock in the 5th, but I am significantly higher on Pitts than much of the FF community. I only wish his ADP reflected that generally negative outlook - seems weird that of all the bad stuff everyone says about him, his ADP just keeps on rising.  That's a bit of a disconnect. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Another late target for y'all:

“The Athletic's Stephen Holder expects Kylen Granson to be a "featured pass-catching tight end."

Granson is a fourth-round rookie, and as such he in unlikely to have a major role in the offense. Holder notes however, that Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox may have "significant blocking responsibilities--especially with left tackle Eric Fisher on the mend from an Achilles injury." He also notes that the rookie has already been heavily involved in training camp. Granson's potential role in the offense has been compared to Trey Burton's 2020 role, which came with a 34% snap share. The continued drumbeat on Granson makes him a very intriguing dynasty target. In 2021 though, Colts split snaps and blocking commitments will likely limit all three tight ends to bye week fill-in options and cheap DFS punt plays.”

I grabbed him late in my rookie draft - the buzz has been growing. Not a bad lottery ticket.