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TE Jordan Matthews, CAR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
CentralPA
Footballguy
Are you talking pre-draft? 'Cause he just had over 2100 all purpose yards (over 1600 yards rushing) and 9 TDs. I wouldn't consider that poor.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Of course we're all going to do what we want to. Just trying to have the conversation.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Nothing is perfect. McCoy and others who had bad workouts will be a blindspot. I accept that. The NFL's avg is less than 50/50. I'm just trying to beat the market.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not sure how relevant guys like Rice and Bruce are today. That might sound silly since it wasn't that long ago that they were producing, but the league is constantly getting bigger, faster, and more explosive. You definitely see that at WR with a new breed dominating the position in recent years.Rhythmdoctor said:
Last year I looked closely at the workout numbers for the elite NFL WRs and was surprised by how uniform they are overall.
I'm not going to rewrite everything, so I'll just quote my old posts on that topic:
EBF said:I am discounting it because it doesn't seem to be that important. I took a closer look at WR combine numbers this offseason and was surprised to find that success at the position hinges on elite physical talent to an even greater degree than it does at RB. I've posted this in a few threads already, but it might be worth posting again.JohnnyU said:keep doubting WoodsMarvin Harrison didn't have good "physical traits" either. You are discounting the importance of Woods' burst in and out of his breaks. He may not have long speed, but he has plenty of burst when he runs his routes. He runs perfect routes and has strong hands. Keep doubting....
Here are the top receivers in the league right now and how they rate in terms of BMI/40/vertical/broad jump.
Andre Johnson - 29.5 (4.41 - 39" - 11'0")
Vincent Jackson - 28.9 (4.46 - 39" - 10'9")
Dez Bryant - 28.8 (4.52 - 38" - 11'1")
Victor Cruz - 28.3 (4.47 - 41.5" - 10'5")
Calvin Johnson - 28.3 (4.35 - 42.5" - 11'7")
Larry Fitzgerald - 28.3 - results not available
Hakeem Nicks - 28.3 (4.51, 36", ??)
Michael Crabtree - 28.1 - did not work out before the draft
Demaryius Thomas - 27.8 - did not work out before the draft
Julio Jones - 27.8 (4.34 - 38.5" - 11'3")
Brandon Marshall - 27.6 (4.52 - 37" - 10'0")
Roddy White - 27.2 (4.46 - 41" - 10'6")
Steve Smith - 27.2 (4.41 - 38.5" - 10'1")
Reggie Wayne - 26.9 (4.45 - 36" - ???)
Marques Colston - 26.9 (4.50 - 37" - 10'3")
Percy Harvin - 26.7 (4.39 - 37.5" - 10'1")
AJ Green - 26.0 (4.48 - 34.5" - 10'6")
There's a pretty narrow range of successful body types (26.0-29.5 BMI). What really stands out is that almost all of these guys had solid speed (they all ran 4.52 or better) and exceptional numbers in the jumping drills (the average vertical is about 37.5" and the average broad jump about 10'6"). For the sake of comparison, here's how Woods stacks up:
Robert Woods - 27.2 (4.51 - 33.5" - 9'9")
Everything there is average. With just average physical ability, he won't have any real edge over NFL corners.
Having said that, not every successful pro WR was a workout warrior. Anquan Boldin ran slow and had bad jump numbers. Even so, he still had an elite trait. 28.9 BMI, which is near the top of the list. Chad Johnson had bad numbers across the board. He's an example of a guy who clearly had explosiveness and speed on the field, but for whatever reason didn't test well. By and large though, all of the elite WR1 types to enter the league within the past decade also had very good workout numbers. The guys who don't quite stack up like Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson, and Mike Williams are more of your system-dependent WR2 types. And that's what I think Woods will be. He can be a solid complementary player, but right off the bat his numbers make it really unlikely that he's going to reach the top level. That's also how I feel about Hopkins and Patton, who have similar qualities.
I would argue that "size" is poorly understood by most football fans because they tend to isolate one of the two key variables (height or weight) without looking at the two as a whole, which is a lot more informative. Hence you get people arguing that Darren McFadden is "big" because he's 217 pounds or that Jordan Matthews has "prototypical size" because he's 6'3". If you look closer, you'll see that both players are quite light relative to their height.EBF said:
To answer your question, I would say prototypical size is guys like Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, and Larry Fitzgerald. They're not just tall. They also have great strength for their size. Physicality is extremely important in the NFL today. Especially with receivers. Here are the top 10 ppg receivers in my league from last season:
Gordon
Julio
Calvin
Demaryius
A Brown
AJ Green
Blackmon
Marshall
Bryant
Jeffery
There are a few different flavors in there, but in general you can see that size/strength are king. Even more so than sheer speed.
If you look at the top FF WRs of the past decade, you will see more of the same. Fitz, Andre, Calvin, Marshall, VJax, Boldin. Even Steve Smith is a really strong dude for his height. So while you do have some less than huge WRs like Chad Johnson and Reggie Wayne mixed in there, the big WRs dominate the scoring charts. The pattern is so clear that you can basically use it as a predictive tool. Someone made a thread last year asking which WR2/WR3 guys could become WR1s. This was my response:
You'll see that I hit Gordon, Blackmon, Jeffery, and Floyd. That's not because I have any special predictive powers. That's only because this stuff really isn't rocket science. Almost all of the dominant FF WRs in the game today fit the generic mold of "Highly-drafted big body with solid mobility for his size." And so if you're looking for the next breakout WRs, it stands to reason that you should focus primarily on players who fit into that mold.EBF said:
Going back to Matthews for a moment, the first thing I'd say is that being athletically parallel to AJ Green isn't necessarily such a great thing since Green is one of the worst elite NFL #1 WRs in terms of his athletic measurables. I think the typical cutoffs for a WR1 are around 4.52 in the 40, 34" in the vertical, and 10' in the broad jump. Green barely bested those marks. He does not thrive in the NFL because he's an elite height/weight/speed/explosiveness athlete. He thrives primarily because of intangibles like body control, hands, catch radius, and route fluidity. So when you say that a top WR prospect is physically parallel with AJ Green, it's actually sort of a back-handed compliment. It would be much better to have the physical talent of Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, or Vincent Jackson. Those guys are ELITE physical specimens. Green really is not. Neither is Matthews. Like Green, he's just barely above the cutoffs in most of the key drills. He does not have any one single special athletic trait.
Now you could still make an argument that if his athletic gifts are on par with AJ Green and if AJ Green is an elite WR1 in the NFL then Matthews is plenty athletic to become an elite WR1 in the NFL. That's what raises the second big red flag against the idea of Matthews as a special talent: He wasn't drafted like one. If he's so good, why did the league let him fall all the way into the middle of the second round? Here are the current elite NFL WRs and their draft rounds:
Dez Bryant - 1
Larry Fitzgerald - 1
AJ Green - 1
Percy Harvin - 1
Andre Johnson - 1
Calvin Johnson - 1
Julio Jones - 1
Demaryius Thomas - 1
Reggie Wayne - 1
Roddy White - 1
Anquan Boldin - 2
Josh Gordon? - 2
Vincent Jackson - 2
Alshon Jeffery? - 2
Jordy Nelson - 2
Steve Smith - 3
Brandon Marshall - 4
Marques Colston - 7
Victor Cruz - UDFA
First off, there is a little bit of subjectivity here. For example, you might argue that someone like Randall Cobb or Antonio Brown should be on this list. You might argue that certain players like Jordy Nelson or Alshon Jeffery don't belong. This list might not be perfect, but I think it basically captures the population of active NFL WRs with elite talent (I'm including guys like Wayne and Roddy based on lifetime achievement). As you can see, first round picks account for a huge percentage of the elite receivers. Almost half. And if you look at a lot of the non-first round names, many of them had circumstantial things unrelated to their talent that probably contributed heavily to their low draft slots (V Jackson, Colston, and Cruz played at small schools, Gordon had severe character issues, and Marshall had character issues in addition to position uncertainty because he played some safety in college).
Point being, the league is pretty good at identifying elite WR prospects. It's rare for them to slip out of the 1st round. And when they do, there's often an obvious excuse. In the absence of character issues or the small school factor, very very few of these guys slip through the cracks.
So then how do you account for Matthews sliding to the mid 2nd round? Vanderbilt is not an elite program, but they compete in the SEC. Unlike Cruz, VJax, and Colston, he had every opportunity to show his talent on a huge stage. He doesn't have any character issues. He's not recovering from injury. There's basically nothing alarming in his profile, which can only mean that he slipped for the simple reason that teams didn't view him as a special prospect.
People have talked about guys like Reggie Wayne and AJ Green not being elite athletes. Well, somehow those guys looked special enough in college to convince a team to use a first round pick on them. So even though their athletic quantifiables might not be any better than Matthews's, they were still viewed as elite prospects. Matthews was not.
I would say that fact combined with his merely "solid" athletic traits makes him highly, highly unlikely to become a true WR1 in the NFL. I think there are basically two varieties of useful FF WRs. You have your elite #1 targets who would thrive in almost any situation (i.e. Marshall, Andre, Calvin). And you have your situation-dependent WR2-WR3 types who can occasionally elevate their FF numbers to WR1 levels when the conditions are perfect (i.e. Wallace, Garcon, Cobb). To me, the best you can hope for with Matthews is that he becomes that second type of player.
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EBF
Footballguy
As an aside, I can't tell you how many times I've heard people use a similar argument when defending a prospect with a thin frame. It's like they think he can just magically flip a switch to change his body type. That isn't how it works. There is a significant genetic component that determines how much muscle a person can carry on his frame. Hence why De'Anthony Thomas and Jonathan Stewart look so different even though they both came out of the same Oregon weight training program. One guy simply has a genetic tendency to carry a lot more muscle than the other.Rhythmdoctor said:
Moreover, if you want to argue that most men don't get their man weight until 25, then wouldn't it also be true for every other WR who has been to the combine and every defender who will be lining up against those guys? And if that's the case then shouldn't we also assume that whatever gains Matthews will make in size/strength will be offset by the gains that the defenders will be making?
All of the study that I've done looking at builds and measurables has used combine data. So Matthews isn't just small compared to what guys like Demaryius, VJax, and Dez look like as multi year NFL veterans. He's small compared to what they looked like at a similar stage of their development. Actually smaller on average since most elite WR prospects leave school after three years and he stayed for four. He's 1+ years older than Watkins, Evans, Robinson, and Beckham. Of all the highly-drafted 2014 WRs, he's probably one of the LEAST likely to bulk up significantly since he's actually already at a more advanced stage of his development.
Not trying to pick on you specifically, but this is literally one of the most common default arguments people fall back on when someone points out that one of the players they like is undersized. "Well, he can gain weight." Like it's just that simple. Body type is body type and with a player who's already been through 3-4 years of a major college football weight program, I'm usually inclined to believe that you what you see is what you get for the most part. Especially with a hard worker like Matthews who is already really strong in the weight room.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
EBF - I will agree with your point that if he does grow into his frame then it stands to reason others will grow their man weight as well. You got me there.
Regarding size, however, I do understand that size should be analyzed using both height and weight and I too have a BMI metric on my spreadsheet. Jordan Matthews falls within that 26-29.5 range that you mention in your quoted posts above. I have him at 26.5. I also show proven elite WRs below 26 such as Percy Harvin, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston and A.J. Green.
While size does seem to be a good indicator of future success, there are plenty examples of guys who don't fit the mold exactly. Also, some of the guys you point out on your list also fell to middle rounds like Josh Gordon, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Colston etc…
I sorta feel like you might be cherry picking various stats to prove your point that Matthews is destined to be a career mediocre WR. As much as we try, it's impossible to fit everyone into a finite set of parameters to predict future success. Cruz is "thick" but not tall. And we're really going to anoint Alshon already after just one promising season? A.J. Green is under 26 BMI and had mediocre metrics at the combine. I already pointed out a few of the elites who fell past round 1. Matthews didn't fall to the middle of the 2nd round, he was an early 2nd round pick in a WR deep draft. I believe the hit rate for 2nd round WRs is about 25% while the hit rate for 1st rounders is close to 50%. My point is that NFL teams miss about 1/2 the time on 1st round WRs and 25% of 2nd round WRs were "missed" too.
We will have to agree to disagree on Matthews. You are one of the few posters who I'm in agreement with nearly all of the time but I think Matthews is a hard player to project for many FFers, which is why he is such a polarizing player in FF. Ultimately, I think Matthews has great hands and a fierce work ethic and he is big enough to be an elite WR. Time will tell who is "right".
Good discussion nonetheless. All of this only helps us all refine our methodology and organize our thought process.
Regarding size, however, I do understand that size should be analyzed using both height and weight and I too have a BMI metric on my spreadsheet. Jordan Matthews falls within that 26-29.5 range that you mention in your quoted posts above. I have him at 26.5. I also show proven elite WRs below 26 such as Percy Harvin, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston and A.J. Green.
While size does seem to be a good indicator of future success, there are plenty examples of guys who don't fit the mold exactly. Also, some of the guys you point out on your list also fell to middle rounds like Josh Gordon, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Colston etc…
I sorta feel like you might be cherry picking various stats to prove your point that Matthews is destined to be a career mediocre WR. As much as we try, it's impossible to fit everyone into a finite set of parameters to predict future success. Cruz is "thick" but not tall. And we're really going to anoint Alshon already after just one promising season? A.J. Green is under 26 BMI and had mediocre metrics at the combine. I already pointed out a few of the elites who fell past round 1. Matthews didn't fall to the middle of the 2nd round, he was an early 2nd round pick in a WR deep draft. I believe the hit rate for 2nd round WRs is about 25% while the hit rate for 1st rounders is close to 50%. My point is that NFL teams miss about 1/2 the time on 1st round WRs and 25% of 2nd round WRs were "missed" too.
We will have to agree to disagree on Matthews. You are one of the few posters who I'm in agreement with nearly all of the time but I think Matthews is a hard player to project for many FFers, which is why he is such a polarizing player in FF. Ultimately, I think Matthews has great hands and a fierce work ethic and he is big enough to be an elite WR. Time will tell who is "right".
Good discussion nonetheless. All of this only helps us all refine our methodology and organize our thought process.
EBF
Footballguy
I think when a player falls in the draft you have to ask yourself if there's an obvious "excuse" for why he didn't go higher. I mentioned that in my post with regard to Gordon, Jackson, Marshall, and Colston. Colston played college football at Hosftra. Jackson played at Northern Colorado. I think one of the few factors that can push a top talent down a few rounds is playing at a small school. That's because it makes it harder for scouts to weigh the value of his success. Was he really that good or was it just the bad competition? That added layer of uncertainty probably hurt players like Jackson and Colston. I think if they'd played at an Alabama, USC, or Notre Dame type school then they probably would've gone higher. Gordon's "excuse" is easy to find as well. He was literally out of football for a year because his character issues were so severe and he still went 2nd round. That is actually a ringing endorsement of his talent. Marshall is probably the closest to a genuine faller. Still, there were some issues. He was a bit of a headcase, he went to Central Florida at a time when they were even less of a powerhouse, and he was a bit of a projection as a WR due to limited playing time there up until his senior season (he had 38 career catches going into his senior season and started 7 games at safety as a junior).
Matthews doesn't have an obvious "excuse" for his 2nd round draft slot, so I can only guess that it stems from lukewarm scouting evaluations. There's no character stuff, no Lattimore-like injury stuff, no small school question marks, and no position change. When you have the double whammy of a guy with non-elite physical tools who is also treated as a non-elite prospect by the NFL, it's probably a pretty strong sign that he's highly unlikely to possess elite potential. I think the best hope with him is that he becomes a "right player, right system" kind of guy and has some good seasons in that way ala Eric Decker, Mike Williams, and Mike Wallace.
EBF
Footballguy
If it was just about paper measurables, Mark Harrison would be an All-Pro.
If it was just about college stats, Mike Hass would be an All-Pro.
If it was just about draft slot, Troy Williamson would be an All-Pro.
All of these things work together (along with a few other variables) to tell a story. A 2nd round pick with below average (by NFL WR1 standards) physical tools does not strike me as a good bet for stardom. This shouldn't really be a controversial position. Matthews is a player where, for whatever reason, the people who like him seem to REALLY like him. Almost in a maniacal zealot sort of way. I don't see the same level of heat in discussions about other 2nd round WRs like Adams, Robinson, Hunter, Woods, and Richardson. For some reason Matthews is a touchy subject. The people who like him can't handle disagreement and almost seem to take it personally.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
This is a good post. It also makes my love of Davante Adams grow fonder since his "excuse" is that he played in a bad conference with questionable competition.
Like I said initially. The film on Matthews doesn't pop for me really either, aside from his hands. I think he makes some tremendous catches. I can't wait to see how he pans out in the NFL.
EBF
Footballguy
According to my numbers...
...the average "elite" WR looks approximately like this:EBF said:
BMI - 27.8
40 - 4.45
Vertical - 38.3"
Broad Jump - 10' 7.5"
Matthews looks like this:
BMI - 26.4
40 - 4.44
Vertical - 35.5"
Broad Jump - 10'
If you ranked him on the above list he would be....
- 17th out of 18 in BMI (bottom 11%)
- 6th out of 15 in the 40 (bottom 67%)
- 14th out of 15 in the vertical (bottom 13%)
- Tied for 13th out of 13 in the broad jump (bottom 15%)
I'm not going to go through and calculate the height for every player, but he would probably rank about 6th or 7th out of 18. So basically he is probably 1-1.5" taller than average and a hair faster than average. He's also really slender for a potential #1 WR and his 40 time should probably be viewed through that lens since he's not carrying as much weight as most of these guys. I tend to view speed and BMI as being inversely related in the sense that thinner players will tend to run faster times and heavier players will tend to run slower times. From that perspective, his 6th best 40 time as the 17th thickest player is perhaps even a little disappointing.
The jumps are flat out bad, ranking near the bottom of the sample and well below the averages.
Overall, it's probably pretty fair to say that his athleticism is well off the mark for an elite WR1. Thin frame. Average speed. Below average explosiveness. The only concrete positive is height. Plenty of these other players have that and more.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I think you can give him a pass on his jumps. I don't have his reach numbers right in front of me but at 6'3 where is actual hands are at his highest point is in the same spot as a lot of the 6'2 and shorter guys on the list. He's shown he's good at high pointing the ball to. I would rather have a 6'3 guy that jumped 35'5 than a 5'11 guy that jumped 39'5.
The fact is he's he fits in your parameters even if he is a little on the lower end. Couple that with some of the intangibles he brings plus his insane production in the SEC and there is a ton to like about this kid.
The fact is he's he fits in your parameters even if he is a little on the lower end. Couple that with some of the intangibles he brings plus his insane production in the SEC and there is a ton to like about this kid.
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EBF
Footballguy
He meets my arbitrary cutoffs, but he's well below average in terms of size and explosiveness. You can say that being tall will allow him to win jump balls despite the low vertical and broad, but that's not really the point of those drills. It's just to provide a gauge of fast-twitch explosiveness. It's not damning because a low jump impedes jump ball ability, but more so because it reflects sub par lower body explosiveness. And that has all kinds of consequences.
I'd also point out that guys like Calvin, Dez, VJax, and Julio are 6'2"+ and that didn't stop them from jumping well. Height does not have any negative effect on vertical leap that I'm aware of.
If you like Matthews, you like him. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and I usually recommend going with your gut. However, there's a difference between liking a player for what he is and liking him because you think he's something he's not. If I decide that I like Paul Richardson, it's not going to be because I think he's a hulking monstrosity with overwhelming strength (because clearly that's not accurate). It's going to be because, after weighing all the positives and negatives, I still believe that he can be successful. When you try to shoehorn Matthews into that ELITE WR1 group, I think it's a pretty big stretch. He simply is not a physical specimen and whether you like him or not, I don't see a lot of ambiguity in that.
Now, AJ Green is not an elite physical specimen either, but the league treated him like an elite prospect all the same. So clearly they saw something in the intangibles that screamed superstar even if the athletic parts on paper weren't that spectacular. If Matthews had been a top 15 or even a top 30 pick despite his numbers, I'd be more receptive to the idea that he has elite potential. Without the elite athletic traits OR the elite draft slot, it's a pretty big stretch to compare him to the best receivers in the game. Most of those guys simply have freakish athletic qualities, which is what makes them what they are. Matthews is more along the lines of "solid" and in a league filled with monsters that's not necessarily enough. Calvin, Andre, and Demaryius keep cornerbacks awake at night. With Matthews as their assignment, they will sleep easily.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
This. I think Matthews has a high floor and quite possibly the least risky play of all the 2nd round WRs. That was the only point I was trying to make as well. There's a lot of upside and not much downside to Matthews. He's a low risk high reward WR which makes him a great value in rookie drafts.
EBF
Footballguy
Well, I think he can fit the system there. I know after my last few posts it probably sounds like I totally hate him. That's not really the case. I don't like him and don't own him in any leagues, but I also think he's a player with few glaring weaknesses. Reasonably good route runner. Tall. Pretty good vertical speed. Not the best hands, but overall productive and effective. Not a combine freak, but solid everywhere. I don't think he belongs anywhere near a conversation of the top 10 WR talents in the NFL, but as for his chances of being a "right player, right scheme" kind of guy for a few years, I think that's a lot more realistic. If Philly is going to be a vertical passing team with Foles then that certainly plays into Matthews's biggest strength, which is his vertical ability.
He could be a good complementary piece in FF. I think first tier WRs are first tier WRs and situation doesn't matter all that much. They will be in your lineup every week regardless. With second and third tier guys, situation becomes a huge factor. It can turn them into weekly starters (i.e. Decker) or total crap (i.e. Mike Williams, Greg Jennings). This is something that Matthews has in his favor and probably part of the reason why he and Adams have a high ADP compared to other 2nd round WRs like Lee, Richardson, Robinson, and Latimer. Purely in a vacuum though, I'm not getting the "Wow I need this guy on my team" vibe from him.
He could be a good complementary piece in FF. I think first tier WRs are first tier WRs and situation doesn't matter all that much. They will be in your lineup every week regardless. With second and third tier guys, situation becomes a huge factor. It can turn them into weekly starters (i.e. Decker) or total crap (i.e. Mike Williams, Greg Jennings). This is something that Matthews has in his favor and probably part of the reason why he and Adams have a high ADP compared to other 2nd round WRs like Lee, Richardson, Robinson, and Latimer. Purely in a vacuum though, I'm not getting the "Wow I need this guy on my team" vibe from him.
karmarooster
Footballguy
A few things after enjoying that back and forth:
1) the "non-elite physical traits" argument is pretty tough here, because EBF is saying he falls toward the bottom of the spectrum of some of the most elite physical specimens in the NFL. That he doesn't quite match up to Megatron, DT, Julio should not be a huge negative. He still has good height, better than the likes of some "1b prototypical" WRs like Blackmon 6'1'' (210), Nicks 6'1'' (212) - albeit both of them are higher BMI and 1st round pedigrees - and similar to Justin Hunter (lower BMI) and Alshon Jeffery (virtually identical at combine size), identified above by you as a potential break-out candidates... because of their prototypical size.
In short I think you're pounding the drums here about his size when his size is clearly on the spectrum of "big enough to dominate." In any case, the only players who do fit that bill are consensus #1 and #2 in this draft class.
2) Instead of the size argument, the idea that Matthews may be a high-motor, overachiever holds more water. It fits with the 4-year player, at a non-football-factory, and his super-hard working mentality. This is kind of taking some positives and putting a negative spin on it, but it does more for the "he'll never be an elite WR" argument rather than "he's just not big enough" for me.
3) as to the "If he had any chance at being elite he would've been drafted in the 1st round" argument, it's well-known that this was one of the deepest WR drafts in a good bit. If Matthews were drafted in previous years, he could easily have gone ahead of Kendall Wright and AJ Jenkins (2012 1st round picks) or D.Hopkins (2013). His draft stock may have been deflated because so many teams knew they could wait and get a first round-talent in the second round.
4) the other variable here is Chip Kelly - we have little track record to work with, but it looks like his system can produce a fantasy WR1 (well, at least borderline WR1) even without being a prototypical-Megatron-DT-Julio autobot. DeSean himself was a 2nd round pick, and lacks ideal size (although he did have one elite trait coming out of the combine, true). Matthews looks to be in a crowd with Maclin and Cooper, but could easily be the hand-picked, smart, rugged, all-around worker that Kelly knows how to get the most out of. System-drive, sure, but what a system it is - one that takes a non-elite specimen like McCoy and makes him the gold standard.
1) the "non-elite physical traits" argument is pretty tough here, because EBF is saying he falls toward the bottom of the spectrum of some of the most elite physical specimens in the NFL. That he doesn't quite match up to Megatron, DT, Julio should not be a huge negative. He still has good height, better than the likes of some "1b prototypical" WRs like Blackmon 6'1'' (210), Nicks 6'1'' (212) - albeit both of them are higher BMI and 1st round pedigrees - and similar to Justin Hunter (lower BMI) and Alshon Jeffery (virtually identical at combine size), identified above by you as a potential break-out candidates... because of their prototypical size.
In short I think you're pounding the drums here about his size when his size is clearly on the spectrum of "big enough to dominate." In any case, the only players who do fit that bill are consensus #1 and #2 in this draft class.
2) Instead of the size argument, the idea that Matthews may be a high-motor, overachiever holds more water. It fits with the 4-year player, at a non-football-factory, and his super-hard working mentality. This is kind of taking some positives and putting a negative spin on it, but it does more for the "he'll never be an elite WR" argument rather than "he's just not big enough" for me.
3) as to the "If he had any chance at being elite he would've been drafted in the 1st round" argument, it's well-known that this was one of the deepest WR drafts in a good bit. If Matthews were drafted in previous years, he could easily have gone ahead of Kendall Wright and AJ Jenkins (2012 1st round picks) or D.Hopkins (2013). His draft stock may have been deflated because so many teams knew they could wait and get a first round-talent in the second round.
4) the other variable here is Chip Kelly - we have little track record to work with, but it looks like his system can produce a fantasy WR1 (well, at least borderline WR1) even without being a prototypical-Megatron-DT-Julio autobot. DeSean himself was a 2nd round pick, and lacks ideal size (although he did have one elite trait coming out of the combine, true). Matthews looks to be in a crowd with Maclin and Cooper, but could easily be the hand-picked, smart, rugged, all-around worker that Kelly knows how to get the most out of. System-drive, sure, but what a system it is - one that takes a non-elite specimen like McCoy and makes him the gold standard.
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EBF
Footballguy
Size isn't the only argument. He also lacks explosiveness in general, as I mentioned with the jumps. His jumps are WELL below average for an elite WR prospect. People don't see those numbers as often as they see 40 times, so they might not be as equipped to quantify them. But being 3 inches below average in the vertical and 7.5 inches below the average in the broad jump is a BIG gap.
Hunter's weight is a negative for me. The thing about Hunter is that he compensates with a 4.36 40, a 39.5" vertical, and a Calvin-esque 11'4" broad jump. He's basically missing one ingredient to qualify for being an out-of-this-world elite WR1 prospect and that's weight. I view him as a litmus test for skinny WRs in the current NFL climate. Generally, I'm receptive to the idea that a player with one bad trait and 2-3 ELITE traits has a better chance to become a star than a player with all average traits. That's certainly how I view Hunter vs. Matthews. Plus we have already seen Hunter in the NFL and he has made some "wow" plays already, so there's that.
I don't buy the "strength of the draft" argument. I believe that a 1st round player is a first round player in any draft. In other words, Chris Johnson still went in the 1st round in 2008 even with all those other elite backs because he was just that good. On the other hand, no RBs went in the first round this year because none of them were that good. I don't buy the argument that a guy who went 42nd in his draft would have been a good bet to go top 32 in most drafts.
It makes some sense that scarcity impacts draft position, but likely to a very thin extent. When there are a lot of elite WR prospects, a lot of WRs go in the first round. When there are not a lot of elite WR prospects, not a lot of WRs go in the first round. Players go where their evaluations dictate they go and I think that's largely independent of the depth at their position in a given class. Or at least it's only affected by those things in extreme cases and/or to a very minor extent.
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werdnoynek
Footballguy
He worked his ### off to be meh in the NCAA. He's working his ### off right now to be meh in the NFL. Overrated is completely right.
It could also mean that he slipped to the second round simply because he was part of one of the deepest WR classes in recent memory. Any other year he likely goes in the 1st.EBF said:
I get where you're coming from, and tend to agree that he isn't an "elite" WR prospect in the mold of Johnson or Julio, but I'm not sure many are trying to make him out to be that.
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werdnoynek
Footballguy
IMO you could put him up against any of the first round guys taken in the last 5 years and probably the only guy I'd take him over would be DHB, He's comparable to Jenkins and Baldwin.
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identikit
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I looked at all drafts from 1993-2010. Here are the WR who have earned 36 or more AV according to PFR-
1 19 96WR Marvin Harrison 124
1 21 98WR Randy Moss 123
3 89 96WR Terrell Owens 119
1 30 01WR Reggie Wayne 115
2 33 94WR Isaac Bruce 102
1 6 99WR Torry Holt 100
3 74 01WR Steve Smith 94
1 4 03WR Andre Johnson 90
2 36 01WR Chad Johnson 88
4 98 97WR Derrick Mason 87
3 92 98WR Hines Ward 87
1 27 05WR Roddy White 81
2 43 96WR Mushin Muhammad 81
2 54 03WR Anquan Boldin 78
1 1 96WR Keyshawn Johnson 78
1 8 95WR Joey Galloway 78
7 213 99WR Donald Driver 76
1 24 96WR Eric Moulds 76
1 16 01WR Santana Moss 72
1 3 04WR Larry Fitzgerald 72
Out of these top 20 WR careers 9 of them were not 1st round picks.
1 8 00WR Plaxico Burress 69
5 135 96WR Joe Horn 69
1 21 94WR Johnnie Morton 69
2 61 05WR Vincent Jackson 68
1 18 96WR Eddie Kennison 68
4 119 06WR Brandon Marshall 67
1 7 96WR Terry Glenn 67
3 78 00WR Laveranues Coles 67
2 34 96WR Amani Toomer 66
1 2 07WR Calvin Johnson 65
7 252 06WR Marques Colston 64
3 90 95WR Antonio Freeman 64
2 52 06WR Greg Jennings 61
1 7 93WR Curtis Conway 61
3 80 00WR Darrell Jackson 57
2 52 01WR Chris Chambers 57
7 204 01WR TJ Houshmandzadeh 56
1 29 94WR Derrick Alexander 56
8 198 93WR Troy Brown 55
2 49 08WR DeSean Jackson 53
2 52 96WR WR Bobby Engram 53
2 65 02WR Deion Branch 52
1 16 93WR Sean Dawkins 48
1 13 04WR Lee Evans 48
1 25 06WR Santonio Holmes 47
2 30 94WR Darnay Scott 47
3 78 99WR Marty Booker 47
4 105 99WR Brandon Stokley 46
3 71 03WR Nate Burelson 46
4 108 04WR Jerrico Cotchery 45
2 47 95WR Frank Sanders 44
1 25 93WR OJ McDuffie 44
1 23 07WR Dwayne Bowe 43
1 7 97WR Ike Hilliard 43
2 53 99WR Peerless Price 43
2 33 02WR Jabar Gaffney 42
1 7 04WR Roy Williams 42
2 36 08WR Jordy Nelson 41
2 62 02WR Antwaan Randle El 41
2 32 00WR Dennis Nothcutt 41
4 124 03WR Brandon Lloyd 41
1 3 05WR Braylon Edwards 41
1 10 95WR JJ Stokes 40
1 22 09WR Percy Harvin 39
1 13 02WR Donte Stallworth 39
1 20 02WR Javon Walker 39
3 84 09WR Mike Wallace 38
1 4 95WR Michael Westbrook 38
2 45 94WR Bert Emanuel 39
1 29 04WR Michael Jenkins 39
4 96 98WR Az-Zahir Hakim 38
1 17 94WR Charles Johnson 38
6 181 94WR Bill Schroeder 38
2 52 93WR Qadry Ismail 38
3 78 07WR James Jones 37
1 8 99WR David Boston 37
2 36 Antonio Bryant 37
2 50 04WR Devery Henderson 36
1 24 10WR Dez Bryant 36
1 29 09WR Hakeem Nicks 36
6 205 08WR Pierre Garcon 36
36 1st round 45 after the 1st round
1 19 96WR Marvin Harrison 124
1 21 98WR Randy Moss 123
1 30 01WR Reggie Wayne 115
1 6 99WR Torry Holt 100
1 4 03WR Andre Johnson 90
1 27 05WR Roddy White 81
1 1 96WR Keyshawn Johnson 78
1 24 96WR Eric Moulds 76
1 8 95WR Joey Galloway 78
1 16 01WR Santana Moss 72
1 3 04WR Larry Fitzgerald 72
1 8 00WR Plaxico Burress 69
1 21 94WR Johnnie Morton 69
1 18 96WR Eddie Kennison 68
1 7 96WR Terry Glenn 67
1 2 07WR Calvin Johnson 65
1 7 93WR Curtis Conway 61
1 29 94WR Derrick Alexander 56
1 16 93WR Sean Dawkins 48
1 13 04WR Lee Evans 48
1 25 06WR Santonio Holmes 47
1 25 93WR OJ McDuffie 44
1 23 07WR Dwayne Bowe 43
1 7 97WR Ike Hilliard 43
1 7 04WR Roy Williams 42
1 3 05WR Braylon Edwards 41
1 10 95WR JJ Stokes 40
1 22 09WR Percy Harvin 39
1 13 02WR Donte Stallworth 39
1 20 02WR Javon Walker 39
1 4 95WR Michael Westbrook 38
1 29 04WR Michael Jenkins 39
1 17 94WR Charles Johnson 38
1 8 99WR David Boston 37
1 24 10WR Dez Bryant 36
1 29 09WR Hakeem Nicks 36
36 1st round
2 33 94WR Isaac Bruce 102
2 36 01WR Chad Johnson 88
2 43 96WR Mushin Muhammad 81
2 54 03WR Anquan Boldin 78
2 61 05WR Vincent Jackson 68
2 34 96WR Amani Toomer 66
2 52 06WR Greg Jennings 61
2 52 01WR Chris Chambers 57
2 49 08WR DeSean Jackson 53
2 52 96WR WR Bobby Engram 53
2 65 02WR Deion Branch 52
2 30 94WR Darnay Scott 47
2 47 95WR Frank Sanders 44
2 53 99WR Peerless Price 43
2 33 02WR Jabar Gaffney 42
2 36 08WR Jordy Nelson 41
2 62 02WR Antwaan Randle El 41
2 32 00WR Dennis Nothcutt 41
2 45 94WR Bert Emanuel 39
2 52 93WR Qadry Ismail 38
2 36 Antonio Bryant 37
2 50 04WR Devery Henderson 36
22 2nd round
3 89 96WR Terrell Owens 119
3 74 01WR Steve Smith 94
3 92 98WR Hines Ward 87
3 78 00WR Laveranues Coles 67
3 90 95WR Antonio Freeman 64
3 80 00WR Darrell Jackson 57
3 78 99WR Marty Booker 47
3 71 03WR Nate Burelson 46
3 84 09WR Mike Wallace 38
3 78 07WR James Jones 37
10 3rd round
4 98 97WR Derrick Mason 87
4 119 06WR Brandon Marshall 67
4 105 99WR Brandon Stokley 46
4 108 04WR Jerrico Cotchery 45
4 124 03WR Brandon Lloyd 41
4 96 98WR Az-Zahir Hakim 38
6 4th round
5 135 96WR Joe Horn 69
1 5th round
6 181 94WR Bill Schroeder 38
6 205 08WR Pierre Garcon 36
2 6th round
7 213 99WR Donald Driver 76
7 252 06WR Marques Colston 64
7 204 01WR TJ Houshmandzadeh 56
8 198 93WR Troy Brown 55
4 7th(8th) round
1 19 96WR Marvin Harrison 124
1 21 98WR Randy Moss 123
3 89 96WR Terrell Owens 119
1 30 01WR Reggie Wayne 115
2 33 94WR Isaac Bruce 102
1 6 99WR Torry Holt 100
3 74 01WR Steve Smith 94
1 4 03WR Andre Johnson 90
2 36 01WR Chad Johnson 88
4 98 97WR Derrick Mason 87
3 92 98WR Hines Ward 87
1 27 05WR Roddy White 81
2 43 96WR Mushin Muhammad 81
2 54 03WR Anquan Boldin 78
1 1 96WR Keyshawn Johnson 78
1 8 95WR Joey Galloway 78
7 213 99WR Donald Driver 76
1 24 96WR Eric Moulds 76
1 16 01WR Santana Moss 72
1 3 04WR Larry Fitzgerald 72
Out of these top 20 WR careers 9 of them were not 1st round picks.
1 8 00WR Plaxico Burress 69
5 135 96WR Joe Horn 69
1 21 94WR Johnnie Morton 69
2 61 05WR Vincent Jackson 68
1 18 96WR Eddie Kennison 68
4 119 06WR Brandon Marshall 67
1 7 96WR Terry Glenn 67
3 78 00WR Laveranues Coles 67
2 34 96WR Amani Toomer 66
1 2 07WR Calvin Johnson 65
7 252 06WR Marques Colston 64
3 90 95WR Antonio Freeman 64
2 52 06WR Greg Jennings 61
1 7 93WR Curtis Conway 61
3 80 00WR Darrell Jackson 57
2 52 01WR Chris Chambers 57
7 204 01WR TJ Houshmandzadeh 56
1 29 94WR Derrick Alexander 56
8 198 93WR Troy Brown 55
2 49 08WR DeSean Jackson 53
2 52 96WR WR Bobby Engram 53
2 65 02WR Deion Branch 52
1 16 93WR Sean Dawkins 48
1 13 04WR Lee Evans 48
1 25 06WR Santonio Holmes 47
2 30 94WR Darnay Scott 47
3 78 99WR Marty Booker 47
4 105 99WR Brandon Stokley 46
3 71 03WR Nate Burelson 46
4 108 04WR Jerrico Cotchery 45
2 47 95WR Frank Sanders 44
1 25 93WR OJ McDuffie 44
1 23 07WR Dwayne Bowe 43
1 7 97WR Ike Hilliard 43
2 53 99WR Peerless Price 43
2 33 02WR Jabar Gaffney 42
1 7 04WR Roy Williams 42
2 36 08WR Jordy Nelson 41
2 62 02WR Antwaan Randle El 41
2 32 00WR Dennis Nothcutt 41
4 124 03WR Brandon Lloyd 41
1 3 05WR Braylon Edwards 41
1 10 95WR JJ Stokes 40
1 22 09WR Percy Harvin 39
1 13 02WR Donte Stallworth 39
1 20 02WR Javon Walker 39
3 84 09WR Mike Wallace 38
1 4 95WR Michael Westbrook 38
2 45 94WR Bert Emanuel 39
1 29 04WR Michael Jenkins 39
4 96 98WR Az-Zahir Hakim 38
1 17 94WR Charles Johnson 38
6 181 94WR Bill Schroeder 38
2 52 93WR Qadry Ismail 38
3 78 07WR James Jones 37
1 8 99WR David Boston 37
2 36 Antonio Bryant 37
2 50 04WR Devery Henderson 36
1 24 10WR Dez Bryant 36
1 29 09WR Hakeem Nicks 36
6 205 08WR Pierre Garcon 36
36 1st round 45 after the 1st round
1 19 96WR Marvin Harrison 124
1 21 98WR Randy Moss 123
1 30 01WR Reggie Wayne 115
1 6 99WR Torry Holt 100
1 4 03WR Andre Johnson 90
1 27 05WR Roddy White 81
1 1 96WR Keyshawn Johnson 78
1 24 96WR Eric Moulds 76
1 8 95WR Joey Galloway 78
1 16 01WR Santana Moss 72
1 3 04WR Larry Fitzgerald 72
1 8 00WR Plaxico Burress 69
1 21 94WR Johnnie Morton 69
1 18 96WR Eddie Kennison 68
1 7 96WR Terry Glenn 67
1 2 07WR Calvin Johnson 65
1 7 93WR Curtis Conway 61
1 29 94WR Derrick Alexander 56
1 16 93WR Sean Dawkins 48
1 13 04WR Lee Evans 48
1 25 06WR Santonio Holmes 47
1 25 93WR OJ McDuffie 44
1 23 07WR Dwayne Bowe 43
1 7 97WR Ike Hilliard 43
1 7 04WR Roy Williams 42
1 3 05WR Braylon Edwards 41
1 10 95WR JJ Stokes 40
1 22 09WR Percy Harvin 39
1 13 02WR Donte Stallworth 39
1 20 02WR Javon Walker 39
1 4 95WR Michael Westbrook 38
1 29 04WR Michael Jenkins 39
1 17 94WR Charles Johnson 38
1 8 99WR David Boston 37
1 24 10WR Dez Bryant 36
1 29 09WR Hakeem Nicks 36
36 1st round
2 33 94WR Isaac Bruce 102
2 36 01WR Chad Johnson 88
2 43 96WR Mushin Muhammad 81
2 54 03WR Anquan Boldin 78
2 61 05WR Vincent Jackson 68
2 34 96WR Amani Toomer 66
2 52 06WR Greg Jennings 61
2 52 01WR Chris Chambers 57
2 49 08WR DeSean Jackson 53
2 52 96WR WR Bobby Engram 53
2 65 02WR Deion Branch 52
2 30 94WR Darnay Scott 47
2 47 95WR Frank Sanders 44
2 53 99WR Peerless Price 43
2 33 02WR Jabar Gaffney 42
2 36 08WR Jordy Nelson 41
2 62 02WR Antwaan Randle El 41
2 32 00WR Dennis Nothcutt 41
2 45 94WR Bert Emanuel 39
2 52 93WR Qadry Ismail 38
2 36 Antonio Bryant 37
2 50 04WR Devery Henderson 36
22 2nd round
3 89 96WR Terrell Owens 119
3 74 01WR Steve Smith 94
3 92 98WR Hines Ward 87
3 78 00WR Laveranues Coles 67
3 90 95WR Antonio Freeman 64
3 80 00WR Darrell Jackson 57
3 78 99WR Marty Booker 47
3 71 03WR Nate Burelson 46
3 84 09WR Mike Wallace 38
3 78 07WR James Jones 37
10 3rd round
4 98 97WR Derrick Mason 87
4 119 06WR Brandon Marshall 67
4 105 99WR Brandon Stokley 46
4 108 04WR Jerrico Cotchery 45
4 124 03WR Brandon Lloyd 41
4 96 98WR Az-Zahir Hakim 38
6 4th round
5 135 96WR Joe Horn 69
1 5th round
6 181 94WR Bill Schroeder 38
6 205 08WR Pierre Garcon 36
2 6th round
7 213 99WR Donald Driver 76
7 252 06WR Marques Colston 64
7 204 01WR TJ Houshmandzadeh 56
8 198 93WR Troy Brown 55
4 7th(8th) round
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
But his BMI was like a trillion
LawFitz
Footballguy
I don't follow the logic of saying that Matthews growing into his man body is offset by defenders coming into the league with him growing into theirs. That makes zero sense.
A. We're comparing Matthews to other "elite" WR body types, many (most?) of whom have grown into their man bodies, not to the defensive players guarding him.
B. As the defenders in Matthews' draft class grow into fully developed men alongside Jordan, a new crop of not-fully-developed rookies will come into the league every year, phasing out older, fully developed vets from the league. The ratio of developed to underdeveloped man bodies among all NFL defenders will generally stay the same as Matthews matures.
It's like an all-time great quote... "Thing I like most about high school chicks, I keep getting older, they all stay the same age!"
A. We're comparing Matthews to other "elite" WR body types, many (most?) of whom have grown into their man bodies, not to the defensive players guarding him.
B. As the defenders in Matthews' draft class grow into fully developed men alongside Jordan, a new crop of not-fully-developed rookies will come into the league every year, phasing out older, fully developed vets from the league. The ratio of developed to underdeveloped man bodies among all NFL defenders will generally stay the same as Matthews matures.
It's like an all-time great quote... "Thing I like most about high school chicks, I keep getting older, they all stay the same age!"
EBF
Footballguy
There are a few problems with thinking that he's just going to magically fill out and have ideal size in the NFL.
1. Players are limited by their natural body type. DeSean Jackson isn't skinnier than Andre Johnson just because he doesn't lift as much. Different players have a different capacity to carry weight. If Matthews has been through four years of a college football weight training program and he's still thin relative to his peers then that's a pretty strong indication that his natural body type is on the lean side. In other words, he's never going to be a huge WR because he doesn't have the capacity to carry the weight. No amount of lifting or aging beyond this point is going to change that.
2. When I talk about Matthews being undersized, I'm not comparing him to what players like Andre Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, and Calvin Johnson weigh in the NFL. I'm comparing him to what they weighed at their own respective combines. You are saying that when Matthews gets into the NFL he's going to somehow get bigger and look like they do, but that's problematic because those guys were already far bigger at the same stage of their development (actually at an earlier stage for most since most elite WRs are younger than Matthews when they're measured at the combine). If you're assuming that Matthews is going to get significantly bigger, are you also assuming that none of those other receivers added weight after they got to the NFL?
I can think of a small handful of notable exceptions, but when you look around the league you should see that most of the players who started their careers as featherweights are still featherweights all these years later (i.e. Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, CJ Spiller). Meanwhile most of the players with elite size/strength already had elite size/strength when they were measured at the combine (i.e. Calvin, VJax, Dez, Graham). Thinking someone is going to come into the league and transform his body type is pretty naive and self-serving. If you like Matthews you should like him because you believe he can succeed with his current body type and playing style, not because you think he's going to become a different person when he joins the NFL. Unlikely. Especially unlikely in his case since he was a 4 year college player and he already has excellent weight room strength, suggesting that he may be close to maxed out.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I don't disagree with a lot of your post, but the bolded is pure conjecture on your part, IMO. I believe most men don't physically mature until age 25-28. I like Jordan with or without the extra 5-10 lbs that his fully mature man-body might bring, but to conclude that he's already hit his physical limit as a rookie is extremely far-fetched.
But all that aside, I was really only arguing with your point that his contemporary defenders growing with him into men themselves would offset any physical gains he might make. That's simply false per my reasoning above.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah Matthews is already very strong for his weight. He's 6'3 212 pounds. I don't think it's a stretch to say he's going to fill out a small amount. Say 5 pounds. That's 6'3 217. I'll take that any day. He is not going to add 10-20 pounds though. Which is fine. He's plenty big enough.
EBF
Footballguy
Okay, so then every other WR will also gain weight until 25-28, making him still light relative to the average. Doesn't change anything.
I would say it's more than conjecture to assume that a guy who has been lifting weights constantly for four years is pretty close to his maxed out body type.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Correct. That is absolutely not true, Even for guys in their late 30's and 40's.EBF said:
LawFitz
Footballguy
Well it certainly would do wonders for your beloved BMI stat if he matures to 6'3" 222. But again, I don't want to argue that point really. Matthews will probably put 5-10 lbs on before age 28. Or he may not. Everyone is unique.EBF said:
My only real point was to counter your stance that even if he does, it won't matter b/c all the 2014 rookie defenders will have grown as well. That argument doesn't work, and you haven't countered that point yet. At all.
EBF
Footballguy
There's not much to say about that. I look at previous successful WRs and use their measurements to get an idea of what a successful NFL WR looks like on paper. Compared to the elite group, Matthews lacks explosiveness and is really light at the same stage of his development. Saying that he's just going to get bigger or more explosive as he matures doesn't really work as an argument because all of the measurements are based on what these players looked like as rookies. So as far as how he compares to the current crop of elite NFL receivers, there are some parts missing that prevent him from being considered a great "on paper" athlete. The idea that he's magically going to bulk up and catch up with the rest of the pack is, IMO, just an example of people seeing things the way they want to see them instead of taking things for what they actually are. Like I said before, most players arrive in the league with the same essential body type that they're going to have throughout their career. Unless there's some extenuating circumstance like a basketball player just starting to play football and focus his weight routine on bulking up, there's pretty much no real reason to expect someone's body type to change after he gets to the NFL. So Matthews as a thin-ish receiver will likely always be that relative to his peers. That has an impact on how he stacks up as an athlete.
I think I've basically been repeating this point in various forms for my last 4-5 posts in this thread.
I think I've basically been repeating this point in various forms for my last 4-5 posts in this thread.
jurb26
Footballguy
It's also total conjuncture that Mathews needs to put on weight at all to be an elite player. I don't like Mathews all that much, see earlier in this very thread, but there is nothing inherently wrong with his size. Could he stand to gain a few lbs? Perhaps so, I'm not totally sure. For a guy who's already got problems separating vs. coverage I'm not sure that's a sound plan. Plenty of guys with a frame similar to Mathews have been successful in the NFL. Many who are much smaller or thinner or whatever you want to call it have also had success.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
I think that's the point though. Because he doesn't do well with separating adding, a few pound could really help him out in boxing out DB's and using his body. The guys his size who are successful usually have more lateral quicks or are excellent route runners which he lacks in both.
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Matthews is not going to get pushed around in the NFL. He's not too skinny or injury prone (Justin Hunter is though). His 21 reps shows great core strength. AJ Green is built just as wiry/sturdy. Matthews is a little bigger.
Anyone can gain weight. That makes no sense. There is no proof to that scientifically at all. He's probably drinking a Chip Kelly smoothie right now.
Nothing but good new from Eagles practices btw.
Anyone can gain weight. That makes no sense. There is no proof to that scientifically at all. He's probably drinking a Chip Kelly smoothie right now.
Nothing but good new from Eagles practices btw.
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EBF
Footballguy
It is actually kind of incredible to me that people really believe this. If it's that simple, why isn't every WR in the NFL jacked up like TO or Andre? Seems pretty clear if you have any common sense or experience with sports that different people carry weight differently and have a different natural playing weights. You are not going to see Reggie Miller bulk up like Lebron or DeSean Jackson get ripped like Christine Michael. That's just not how this stuff works.
I also wonder where you think these gains are going to come from with a player who was in a major college football program for four years.
Milkman
Footballguy
Ok this is what I have heard from all the Jordan Matthews detractors in this thread.
Meh hands
just ok route runner
can't separate
Not big enough
Slow
Nearly every play he made in college was blocked perfectly
Yet in the last two years, as the only weapon on his team with a meh QB, he has
206 receptions
2800 yards
15 rec TD
How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?
Meh hands
just ok route runner
can't separate
Not big enough
Slow
Nearly every play he made in college was blocked perfectly
Yet in the last two years, as the only weapon on his team with a meh QB, he has
206 receptions
2800 yards
15 rec TD
How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?
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EBF
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
He just ran a 4.46 40 at the combine but people still call him slow here in this forum too.
EBF
Footballguy
Objectively, that isn't corroborated by the numbers:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46136/349/peshek-wr-metrics-20
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
BuzzCagney
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
The point I was trying to make with EBF is you don't dominate the SEC for two years as the only offensive weapon on an inferior team without being really good at something. So even though he's not going to agree that Matthews is an elite prospect maybe he could go back and try and figure out what Matthews is great at because it's pretty obvious there is something there.
Also EBF is one of the few posters on here open minded enough to change his mind on Matthews if he did indeed see something he may have missed before.
Also EBF is one of the few posters on here open minded enough to change his mind on Matthews if he did indeed see something he may have missed before.
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EBF
Footballguy
Exactly. The corners Matthews faces on Sundays will probably be as good as the top 5-10% he faced in college.
What he did against the other 90-95% doesn't necessarily tell us much.
There are loads of guys in college sports who feast on mediocre competition, but can't raise their game when they get to the pro level.
