TE Jordan Matthews, CAR (2 Viewers)

[EBF]

The point I was trying to make with EBF is you don't dominate the SEC for two years as the only offensive weapon on an inferior team without being really good at something. So even though he's not going to agree that Matthews is an elite prospect maybe he could go back and try and figure out what Matthews is great at because it's pretty obvious there is something there.

Also EBF is one of the few posters on here open minded enough to change his mind on Matthews if he did indeed see something he may have missed before.

Everyone in college football is good and everyone in the NFL is REALLY good. The jump up is so high that you probably need to be one of the top 10-15 WRs on the planet to consistently dominate. I don't see Matthews being on par with those guys and I don't think that's a controversial opinion.

Doesn't mean he has no virtues.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Ok this is what I have heard from all the Jordan Matthews detractors in this thread.

Meh hands

WTF, meh hands.

He is in the argument for best hands in the entire class.

Objectively, that isn't corroborated by the numbers:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46136/349/peshek-wr-metrics-20

 

[Milkman]

The point I was trying to make with EBF is you don't dominate the SEC for two years as the only offensive weapon on an inferior team without being really good at something. So even though he's not going to agree that Matthews is an elite prospect maybe he could go back and try and figure out what Matthews is great at because it's pretty obvious there is something there.

Also EBF is one of the few posters on here open minded enough to change his mind on Matthews if he did indeed see something he may have missed before.

Everyone in college football is good and everyone in the NFL is REALLY good. The jump up is so high that you probably need to be one of the top 10-15 WRs on the planet to consistently dominate. I don't see Matthews being on par with those guys and I don't think that's a controversial opinion.

Doesn't mean he has no virtues.

Yeah i would agree with that. My point is there are guys who dominated college football (even the SEC) and have flopped in the NFL (nobody can deny that) but they didn't carry inferior teams. They were more part of powerhouse teams. One example would be Mike Williams for USC. Can you maybe give me a few guys that were really good in college football that have busted in the NFL that I can take a deeper look at their surrounding talent and percentage of offense they accounted for? I'll do the work just throw a list of the 5-10 most recent WR busts. If you don't mind.

 

[EBF]

The point I was trying to make with EBF is you don't dominate the SEC for two years as the only offensive weapon on an inferior team without being really good at something. So even though he's not going to agree that Matthews is an elite prospect maybe he could go back and try and figure out what Matthews is great at because it's pretty obvious there is something there.

Also EBF is one of the few posters on here open minded enough to change his mind on Matthews if he did indeed see something he may have missed before.

Everyone in college football is good and everyone in the NFL is REALLY good. The jump up is so high that you probably need to be one of the top 10-15 WRs on the planet to consistently dominate. I don't see Matthews being on par with those guys and I don't think that's a controversial opinion.

Doesn't mean he has no virtues.

Yeah i would agree with that. My point is there are guys who dominated college football (even the SEC) and have flopped in the NFL (nobody can deny that) but they didn't carry inferior teams. They were more part of powerhouse teams. One example would be Mike Williams for USC.Can you maybe give me a few guys that were really good in college football that have busted in the NFL that I can take a deeper look at their surrounding talent and percentage of offense they accounted for? I'll do the work just throw a list of the 5-10 most recent WR busts. If you don't mind.

Some guys who were also high picks who flopped. I left out injury busts like Ryan Broyles and Malcolm Kelly.

Donnie Avery

Earl Bennett

Vincent Brown

Mark Clayton

Mardy Gilyard

Derek Hagan

Jason Hill

Dwayne Jarrett

AJ Jenkins

Mario Manningham

Robert Meachem

Emmanuel Sanders

Devin Thomas

Rashaun Woods

I don't know how valuable the "% of offense" is going to be, as it should punish players with good supporting talent (i.e. those at USC, Florida, Alabama) and promote players with bad supporting talent (because their team has nobody else to make plays). Kind of like how Stevie Johnson has accounted for a high % of Buffalo's passing yards in recent seasons even though he isn't necessarily a better player than someone like Decker, Burleson, or M Austin.

 

[Milkman]

When you are the only threat on your team offensively teams are going to game plan around stopping you. Also when you catch 10 tds in a year but your team only throws like 20 td passes all year you have to value that differently than when a wr catches 12 TDs but the team threw 45 total. You get more targets but more attention to. I guess everybody is going to value that differently.

Two WRs from this year that are good examples of this are D. Adams and Matthews. Both caught nearly 50% of their teams TDS but Matthews accounted for nearly 50% of Vanderbilt's receiving yards. Where as Adams accounted for roughly 35% of his teams receiving yards vs inferior competition.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Anyone can gain weight. That makes no sense. There is no proof to that scientifically at all. He's probably drinking a Chip Kelly smoothie right now.

It is actually kind of incredible to me that people really believe this. If it's that simple, why isn't every WR in the NFL jacked up like TO or Andre? Seems pretty clear if you have any common sense or experience with sports that different people carry weight differently and have a different natural playing weights. You are not going to see Reggie Miller bulk up like Lebron or DeSean Jackson get ripped like Christine Michael. That's just not how this stuff works.

I also wonder where you think these gains are going to come from with a player who was in a major college football program for four years.

So with the right diet and exercise program he can't possibly gain 5 pounds? He doesn't need to anyway...http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/FsoPi3pnHUs/0.jpgLeBron bulked up, so did Michael. The Eagles account for players potential frames btw. I don't feel like finding the articles, but they measure wrist size to see what type of frame prospects have. That's data we don't have that the Eagles know 1st hand

 

[EBF]

When you are the only threat on your team offensively teams are going to game plan around stopping you. Also when you catch 10 tds in a year but your team only throws like 20 td passes all year you have to value that differently than when a wr catches 12 TDs but the team threw 45 total. You get more targets but more attention to. I guess everybody is going to value that differently.

Two WRs from this year that are good examples of this are D. Adams and Matthews. Both caught nearly 50% of their teams TDS but Matthews accounted for nearly 50% of Vanderbilt's receiving yards. Where as Adams accounted for roughly 35% of his teams receiving yards vs inferior competition.

I just see that particular statistic as being really prone to situational variables. For example, I'm guessing that Reggie Wayne didn't account for a huge percentage of Miami's passing offense. Was that because Reggie Wayne wasn't a great receiver or was that because his teammates were Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, Andre Johnson, and Santana Moss? When you play on a stacked team, there is less incentive to build the entire offense around you.

I think you see the same thing in the NFL. There are basically two different types of good situations for a WR:

1. Playing in a high-powered offense with a great QB (i.e. Warner Rams, Manning Colts, Manning Broncos, Cunningham Vikings, etc).

2. Playing on a crap team with no other weapons (i.e. AJ Green, Boldin rookie year, Stevie Johnson on the Bills, Garcon on the Redskins last year, etc).

It seems to me that a WR in the second type of situation should be expected to account for a high percentage of his team's passing offense. Not because he's great but because his team has nothing else. Without even looking at the stats, I'd guess that Garcon had a higher % of Washington's receiving yards last season than Demaryius Thomas did in Denver. I don't think that says anything about Garcon being > Thomas. It's just a matter of circumstance.

 

[Xue]

Anyone can gain weight. That makes no sense. There is no proof to that scientifically at all. He's probably drinking a Chip Kelly smoothie right now.

It is actually kind of incredible to me that people really believe this. If it's that simple, why isn't every WR in the NFL jacked up like TO or Andre? Seems pretty clear if you have any common sense or experience with sports that different people carry weight differently and have a different natural playing weights. You are not going to see Reggie Miller bulk up like Lebron or DeSean Jackson get ripped like Christine Michael. That's just not how this stuff works.

I also wonder where you think these gains are going to come from with a player who was in a major college football program for four years.

So with the right diet and exercise program he can't possibly gain 5 pounds? He doesn't need to anyway...http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/FsoPi3pnHUs/0.jpgLeBron bulked up, so did Michael. The Eagles account for players potential frames btw. I don't feel like finding the articles, but they measure wrist size to see what type of frame prospects have. That's data we don't have that the Eagles know 1st hand

Matthews is 212. Dez Bryant is playing at 214 this season.

Eric Decker: 214

Jordy Nelson: 217

Alshon Jeffery: 216

Kenny Britt: 218

Pierre Garcon: 212

AJ Green: 207, but supposedly added 6-10 lbs.

His weight is good enough. No one ever said Decker, Nelson, or Jeffery should bulk up.

 

[EBF]

So with the right diet and exercise program he can't possibly gain 5 pounds? He doesn't need to anyway...http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/FsoPi3pnHUs/0.jpgLeBron bulked up, so did Michael. The Eagles account for players potential frames btw. I don't feel like finding the articles, but they measure wrist size to see what type of frame prospects have. That's data we don't have that the Eagles know 1st hand

Lebron came into the NBA out of high school. What did he look like at 22? Probably pretty close to what he looks like now, physically.

Michael was huge by the time he was tested at the combine.

Most of these guys come into the NFL as essentially finished products physically. There is always a big exception here and there like Ray Lewis or Clinton Portis, but that's not the norm. As I said earlier, you don't usually see players fundamentally change the nature of their physique after they get into the league. The slight speed backs like Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, and CJ Spiller are still slight. The big power backs like Trent Richardson, Michael Turner, and MJD are still big.

I'm more deterministic in how I look at body type. I don't think it's nearly as pliable as people make it out to be. Especially when you're talking about world class athletes who train for a living. I could get off the couch and probably gain some good muscle mass, but that's because I haven't been training hard for 4+ years to already maximize my physique.

People see things how they want to see them, so when there's a prospect they like who lacks bulk they just automatically play the "he'll bulk up" card without stopping to think about whether or not it's moot point since the same could theoretically be said about everyone in the league. Same exact thing happened in the Paul Richardson thread.

I've repeated this stuff countless times. By now it's either sunk in and you agree or you don't see it my way, so I'm not going to say any more about it.

 

[EBF]

Anyone can gain weight. That makes no sense. There is no proof to that scientifically at all. He's probably drinking a Chip Kelly smoothie right now.

It is actually kind of incredible to me that people really believe this. If it's that simple, why isn't every WR in the NFL jacked up like TO or Andre? Seems pretty clear if you have any common sense or experience with sports that different people carry weight differently and have a different natural playing weights. You are not going to see Reggie Miller bulk up like Lebron or DeSean Jackson get ripped like Christine Michael. That's just not how this stuff works.

I also wonder where you think these gains are going to come from with a player who was in a major college football program for four years.

So with the right diet and exercise program he can't possibly gain 5 pounds? He doesn't need to anyway...http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/FsoPi3pnHUs/0.jpgLeBron bulked up, so did Michael. The Eagles account for players potential frames btw. I don't feel like finding the articles, but they measure wrist size to see what type of frame prospects have. That's data we don't have that the Eagles know 1st hand

Matthews is 212. Dez Bryant is playing at 214 this season.

Eric Decker: 214

Jordy Nelson: 217

Alshon Jeffery: 216

Kenny Britt: 218

Pierre Garcon: 212

AJ Green: 207, but supposedly added 6-10 lbs.

His weight is good enough. No one ever said Decker, Nelson, or Jeffery should bulk up.

Weight without height doesn't really mean that much. Darren McFadden is 217 pounds. MJD is 207 pounds. Who runs harder?

Always better to look at the two variables as two pieces of one whole rather than as separate individuals.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Justin Hunter's BMI is like 6, and he couldn't tie Jordan Matthews cleats when it comes to playing vs SEC competition. Yet, somehow he has a better profile to you EBF? It's not that easy man. You ignore way too much data to try and break him down statistically. There's a reason why I post almost EVERYTHING I could quantify in post #201 and showed similar players who just so happen to be WR1's in FF, not just one or two patterns I found.

 

[Xue]

Anyone can gain weight. That makes no sense. There is no proof to that scientifically at all. He's probably drinking a Chip Kelly smoothie right now.

It is actually kind of incredible to me that people really believe this. If it's that simple, why isn't every WR in the NFL jacked up like TO or Andre? Seems pretty clear if you have any common sense or experience with sports that different people carry weight differently and have a different natural playing weights. You are not going to see Reggie Miller bulk up like Lebron or DeSean Jackson get ripped like Christine Michael. That's just not how this stuff works.

I also wonder where you think these gains are going to come from with a player who was in a major college football program for four years.

So with the right diet and exercise program he can't possibly gain 5 pounds? He doesn't need to anyway...http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/FsoPi3pnHUs/0.jpgLeBron bulked up, so did Michael. The Eagles account for players potential frames btw. I don't feel like finding the articles, but they measure wrist size to see what type of frame prospects have. That's data we don't have that the Eagles know 1st hand

Matthews is 212. Dez Bryant is playing at 214 this season.

Eric Decker: 214

Jordy Nelson: 217

Alshon Jeffery: 216

Kenny Britt: 218

Pierre Garcon: 212

AJ Green: 207, but supposedly added 6-10 lbs.

His weight is good enough. No one ever said Decker, Nelson, or Jeffery should bulk up.

Weight without height doesn't really mean that much. Darren McFadden is 217 pounds. MJD is 207 pounds. Who runs harder?

Always better to look at the two variables as two pieces of one whole rather than as separate individuals.

Then take out Garcon. The rest is 6'3"-6'4". His weight is fine.

 

[ShaHBucks]

So with the right diet and exercise program he can't possibly gain 5 pounds? He doesn't need to anyway...http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/FsoPi3pnHUs/0.jpg

LeBron bulked up, so did Michael. The Eagles account for players potential frames btw. I don't feel like finding the articles, but they measure wrist size to see what type of frame prospects have. That's data we don't have that the Eagles know 1st hand

Lebron came into the NBA out of high school. What did he look like at 22? Probably pretty close to what he looks like now, physically.

Michael was huge by the time he was tested at the combine.

Most of these guys come into the NFL as essentially finished products physically. There is always a big exception here and there like Ray Lewis or Clinton Portis, but that's not the norm. As I said earlier, you don't usually see players fundamentally change the nature of their physique after they get into the league. The slight speed backs like Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, and CJ Spiller are still slight. The big power backs like Trent Richardson, Michael Turner, and MJD are still big.

I'm more deterministic in how I look at body type. I don't think it's nearly as pliable as people make it out to be. Especially when you're talking about world class athletes who train for a living. I could get off the couch and probably gain some good muscle mass, but that's because I haven't been training hard for 4+ years to already maximize my physique.

People see things how they want to see them, so when there's a prospect they like who lacks bulk they just automatically play the "he'll bulk up" card without stopping to think about whether or not it's moot point since the same could theoretically be said about everyone in the league. Same exact thing happened in the Paul Richardson thread.

I've repeated this stuff countless times. By now it's either sunk in and you agree or you don't see it my way, so I'm not going to say any more about it.

I never said he needed to bulk up. He doesn't. I just said it's possible.

 

[Milkman]

When you are the only threat on your team offensively teams are going to game plan around stopping you. Also when you catch 10 tds in a year but your team only throws like 20 td passes all year you have to value that differently than when a wr catches 12 TDs but the team threw 45 total. You get more targets but more attention to. I guess everybody is going to value that differently.

Two WRs from this year that are good examples of this are D. Adams and Matthews. Both caught nearly 50% of their teams TDS but Matthews accounted for nearly 50% of Vanderbilt's receiving yards. Where as Adams accounted for roughly 35% of his teams receiving yards vs inferior competition.

I just see that particular statistic as being really prone to situational variables. For example, I'm guessing that Reggie Wayne didn't account for a huge percentage of Miami's passing offense. Was that because Reggie Wayne wasn't a great receiver or was that because his teammates were Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, Andre Johnson, and Santana Moss? When you play on a stacked team, there is less incentive to build the entire offense around you.

I think you see the same thing in the NFL. There are basically two different types of good situations for a WR:

1. Playing in a high-powered offense with a great QB (i.e. Warner Rams, Manning Colts, Manning Broncos, Cunningham Vikings, etc).

2. Playing on a crap team with no other weapons (i.e. AJ Green, Boldin rookie year, Stevie Johnson on the Bills, Garcon on the Redskins last year, etc).

It seems to me that a WR in the second type of situation should be expected to account for a high percentage of his team's passing offense. Not because he's great but because his team has nothing else. Without even looking at the stats, I'd guess that Garcon had a higher % of Washington's receiving yards last season than Demaryius Thomas did in Denver. I don't think that says anything about Garcon being > Thomas. It's just a matter of circumstance.

It's probably not as black and white as we want to make it but let me just take a look at that list of busts and see if any of them carried an offense. I can't do it for a couple days but I'll investigate the numbers and post what i find. QB they played with. Other WR on the the team. % of TD'S and passing yards.

Decker is a good example. Let's see if his numbers go up this year if he's the focal point of the Jets offense. I'm not saying your wrong but it seems like it could go both ways.

I mean if you're not a good wr then your numbers will still have a slight bump if you get a gazzion targets but can you have dominant record breaking numbers? A player that comes to mind in the pros is Greg Little. I have no idea how he did in college but i faintly remember him being targeted like 12-15 times one game and him dropping like 7 passes or something crazy like that.

 

[ShaHBucks]

This is how Bloom's article starts "Statistical models love Matthews numbers and level of competition, and his measureables make him look like a candidate to be a #1 receiver in the NFL." Even he knows you can't knock Matthews "on paper".

 

[EBF]

No offense to him, but I'm guessing I've spent more time looking at combine numbers over the years.

I get that it sounds condescending, but when you've invested the hours looking at this stuff and you're trying to have a conversation with people who haven't, it becomes problematic because they really and truly don't know what they're talking about. Matthews is a great example because I think if you saw his listed height weight of 6'3" 212, you'd probably agree that it's prototypical #1 WR size. In reality, that's a low weight for a player of that size. Far thinner than the likes of Fitzgerald, Andre, VJax, and Dez, the actual prototypical big-bodied #1 NFL WRs.

The mainstream media is really really bad at linking height and weight. So you get short skinny guys like Tavon Austin and De'Anthony Thomas compared to short thick guys like Darren Sproles and you get tall skinny guys like Jordan Matthews compared to receivers who are far thicker. Since this is all that's broadcasted on draft sites and TV, it soaks into the whole FF community and they all think the same way about it. When you put in the time to look at some things, it will change your interpretation a little bit. A lot of people haven't put in that time and it's hard to talk to them about this stuff and have a good conversation.

 

[EBF]

Justin Hunter's BMI is like 6, and he couldn't tie Jordan Matthews cleats when it comes to playing vs SEC competition. Yet, somehow he has a better profile to you EBF? It's not that easy man. You ignore way too much data to try and break him down statistically. There's a reason why I post almost EVERYTHING I could quantify in post #201 and showed similar players who just so happen to be WR1's in FF, not just one or two patterns I found.

Take a look at Hunter's height, 40 time, broad jump, and vertical leap.

Now look at those same results for Jordan Matthews.

Hunter is a FREAK athlete with exactly one huge glaring weakness. I never said he was an elite can't-miss prospect and I've never treated him as such. However, if that one big red flag doesn't torpedo his career, he has some legitimately scary athletic traits that will make any corner nervous. Matthews doesn't.

I would generally rather have a guy with 3-4 elite traits and one huge flaw than a guy who is a B or B- in everything. You see a parallel at RB with Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles. They are really, really light and skinny, but damn they can fly. That's enough to make up for their weakness. DeSean Jackson is similar at WR and Hunter has the potential to be a unique type of impact player in his own right. The weight is just something that drops him down from "elite lock" to "worthwhile gamble."

 

[EBF]

Anyone can gain weight. That makes no sense. There is no proof to that scientifically at all. He's probably drinking a Chip Kelly smoothie right now.

It is actually kind of incredible to me that people really believe this. If it's that simple, why isn't every WR in the NFL jacked up like TO or Andre? Seems pretty clear if you have any common sense or experience with sports that different people carry weight differently and have a different natural playing weights. You are not going to see Reggie Miller bulk up like Lebron or DeSean Jackson get ripped like Christine Michael. That's just not how this stuff works.

I also wonder where you think these gains are going to come from with a player who was in a major college football program for four years.

So with the right diet and exercise program he can't possibly gain 5 pounds? He doesn't need to anyway...http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/FsoPi3pnHUs/0.jpgLeBron bulked up, so did Michael. The Eagles account for players potential frames btw. I don't feel like finding the articles, but they measure wrist size to see what type of frame prospects have. That's data we don't have that the Eagles know 1st hand

Matthews is 212. Dez Bryant is playing at 214 this season.

Eric Decker: 214

Jordy Nelson: 217

Alshon Jeffery: 216

Kenny Britt: 218

Pierre Garcon: 212

AJ Green: 207, but supposedly added 6-10 lbs.

His weight is good enough. No one ever said Decker, Nelson, or Jeffery should bulk up.

Weight without height doesn't really mean that much. Darren McFadden is 217 pounds. MJD is 207 pounds. Who runs harder?

Always better to look at the two variables as two pieces of one whole rather than as separate individuals.

Then take out Garcon. The rest is 6'3"-6'4". His weight is fine.

This is a good example of why it's good to actually calculate the BMI instead of just making lazy estimates.

I have it as...

Garcon - 28.6

Nelson - 27.4

Britt - 27.3

Jeffery - 27.1

Decker - 27.0

Matthews - 26.4

Green - 26.0

A prototypical #1 WR will usually be between 27.5-29.0. That's where Dez, Demaryius, Gordon, Calvin, Fitzgerald, Andre, Crabtree, Boldin, Marshall, Cruz, and Julio fall. Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins are also in that range.

Of the receivers who are widely accepted to be elite NFL #1 targets, Green, Harvin, and Wayne are the only ones in the 26 BMI range. That's why I pointed out earlier that it's problematic to compare Matthews to Green in terms of having an ideal WR1 physique because Green himself doesn't have an ideal WR1 physique. The Matthews fans will look at that and say, "Well Green has still been successful and so will Matthews." Problem is that Harvin, Wayne, and Green were all recognized by the NFL as elite talents and selected in the first round. So if you don't have a prototypical WR1 frame and you aren't recognized as an elite prospect by the NFL draft then your odds of becoming a top flight WR1 are....well...not good.

The list of names thrown out above doesn't really do much to sway that, as all but Green are 27+ in BMI and it's a moot point because the likes of Decker and Jeffery aren't exactly proven as elite standalone NFL WR1s. I have never argued that Matthews can't become a solid system player. Only that his pedestrian physical attributes and non-first round draft slot indicate that he's highly unlikely to ever become a perennial dominator ala Marshall, Andre, Calvin, etc. If he's going to pan out, it will be as a Decker/Nelson type who thrives as a good player in a great system. It won't be as a great player.

 

[Xue]

Justin Hunter's BMI is like 6, and he couldn't tie Jordan Matthews cleats when it comes to playing vs SEC competition. Yet, somehow he has a better profile to you EBF? It's not that easy man. You ignore way too much data to try and break him down statistically. There's a reason why I post almost EVERYTHING I could quantify in post #201 and showed similar players who just so happen to be WR1's in FF, not just one or two patterns I found.

Take a look at Hunter's height, 40 time, broad jump, and vertical leap.

Now look at those same results for Jordan Matthews.

Hunter is a FREAK athlete with exactly one huge glaring weakness. I never said he was an elite can't-miss prospect and I've never treated him as such. However, if that one big red flag doesn't torpedo his career, he has some legitimately scary athletic traits that will make any corner nervous. Matthews doesn't.

I would generally rather have a guy with 3-4 elite traits and one huge flaw than a guy who is a B or B- in everything. You see a parallel at RB with Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles. They are really, really light and skinny, but damn they can fly. That's enough to make up for their weakness. DeSean Jackson is similar at WR and Hunter has the potential to be a unique type of impact player in his own right. The weight is just something that drops him down from "elite lock" to "worthwhile gamble."

Justin Hunter's biggest weakness isn't his weight. ;-)

 

[ShaHBucks]

Justin Hunter's BMI is like 6, and he couldn't tie Jordan Matthews cleats when it comes to playing vs SEC competition. Yet, somehow he has a better profile to you EBF? It's not that easy man. You ignore way too much data to try and break him down statistically. There's a reason why I post almost EVERYTHING I could quantify in post #201 and showed similar players who just so happen to be WR1's in FF, not just one or two patterns I found.

Take a look at Hunter's height, 40 time, broad jump, and vertical leap.

Now look at those same results for Jordan Matthews.

Hunter is a FREAK athlete with exactly one huge glaring weakness. I never said he was an elite can't-miss prospect and I've never treated him as such. However, if that one big red flag doesn't torpedo his career, he has some legitimately scary athletic traits that will make any corner nervous. Matthews doesn't.

I would generally rather have a guy with 3-4 elite traits and one huge flaw than a guy who is a B or B- in everything. You see a parallel at RB with Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles. They are really, really light and skinny, but damn they can fly. That's enough to make up for their weakness. DeSean Jackson is similar at WR and Hunter has the potential to be a unique type of impact player in his own right. The weight is just something that drops him down from "elite lock" to "worthwhile gamble."

Then you have to look at actual on field results to see who did what with their natural resources.

Hunter and Matthew in 2012 vs SEC opponents:

G Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/GHunter 8 39 568 14.56 2 4.9 71.0Matthews 8 57 877 15.39 5 7.1 109.6One of Hunter's TDs was vs Kentucky. It's easy to see who actually worried opposing CBs more.

 

[ShaHBucks]

No offense to him, but I'm guessing I've spent more time looking at combine numbers over the years.

I get that it sounds condescending, but when you've invested the hours looking at this stuff and you're trying to have a conversation with people who haven't, it becomes problematic because they really and truly don't know what they're talking about. Matthews is a great example because I think if you saw his listed height weight of 6'3" 212, you'd probably agree that it's prototypical #1 WR size. In reality, that's a low weight for a player of that size. Far thinner than the likes of Fitzgerald, Andre, VJax, and Dez, the actual prototypical big-bodied #1 NFL WRs.

The mainstream media is really really bad at linking height and weight. So you get short skinny guys like Tavon Austin and De'Anthony Thomas compared to short thick guys like Darren Sproles and you get tall skinny guys like Jordan Matthews compared to receivers who are far thicker. Since this is all that's broadcasted on draft sites and TV, it soaks into the whole FF community and they all think the same way about it. When you put in the time to look at some things, it will change your interpretation a little bit. A lot of people haven't put in that time and it's hard to talk to them about this stuff and have a good conversation.

He was referencing others work most likely. Guys that, you know, built models, back tested them and ran regressions ect... I haven't read anyone who does good player models not all-in on Matthews. It's hardly debatable. He's what you consider a B athlete yourself. But he had A+ production. Average it out.

 

[LawFitz]

How much of Jordan Matthews falling out of the first round had to do with this being one of the deepest WR classes ever?

No way to prove it, but I think in most years, he'd have been a rd 1 selection. Using NFL draft position to differentiate WRs' prospects is dubious even within a single year. But it can be totally unfair when comparing between differing years if there's a large discrepancy in class depth.

 

[EBF]

college football ≠ pro football

Tim Tebow was a better college QB than Nick Foles. Who is better in the NFL?

Some things that work in college don't work in the NFL. Some traits that might only be marginally important in college might become crucial in the NFL.

Let's say you have a guy who can run by anyone in the world, but he'll always drop 10% of passes. We'll call him Player A. Now let's say you have another guy who never drops a pass. He can run by any college cornerback in the country, but he can only run by 80% of NFL corners. We'll call him Player B. In college Player B would be an absolute mega star. He'd be better than Player A because he'd get open as often and he'd drop fewer passes. However, in the NFL, his inability to get open against top competition would offset his hands. Suddenly Player B with his 10% drop rate, but 100% ability to get open would become the more productive player in that climate.

That isn't a specific argument against Matthews, but it shows some of the underlying ideas at work. Basically that the NFL is a different brand of football entirely compared with NCAA and the emphasizing/de-emphasizing of certain traits will influence how the players translate when making the jump. Hence why you can't just say, "Player A was a better college player than Player B. Therefore Player B will be better in the NFL." Stepfan Taylor was a better college running back than Christine Michael in certain respects. In the NFL, Michael looks a lot more viable. It is a different game altogether.

Likewise, I would take the elite athletic traits of Justin Hunter over the solid all-around game of Jordan Matthews for the NFL game. Matthews may have been more reliable and effective against amateur competition, but the lack of standout physical traits will probably become more of a problem against the higher caliber of defender found in the NFL. Meanwhile Hunter will still be faster and more explosive than just about everyone who lines up to stop him, even if he has some other deficiencies.

 

[EBF]

How much of Jordan Matthews falling out of the first round had to do with this being one of the deepest WR classes ever?

No way to prove it, but I think in most years, he'd have been a rd 1 selection. Using NFL draft position to differentiate WRs' prospects is dubious even within a single year. But it can be totally unfair when comparing between differing years if there's a large discrepancy in class depth.

Unlikely, IMO.

I think players go approximately where their talent dictates regardless of the strength of their position in a given draft class. Like I said elsewhere, when there are lots of elite WR prospects in a draft, lots of WRs go in the first round. When there are no elite WR prospects in a draft, very few WRs go in the first round.

Teams don't sit there at their pick and say, "Well, we need a WR. There's nobody worth this pick at the position, but we'll take on here anyway." Likewise, they don't sit there and say "Wow, there are a lot of good running backs in this draft. Well, since those other teams already took McFadden and Stewart, we probably shouldn't pick Chris Johnson here."

I think you could see a little bit of that effect at a position like QB where you can only have one guy on the field at a time. If you already have Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers, there's pretty much nothing that could get you to spend a first round pick on a QB. But WR isn't like QB. You can play 2, 3, 4, or even 5 WRs on the field at the same time. So if you're sitting on the board and Julio Jones is available, you don't pass on him just because you already have Roddy White.

Beyond that, Matthews wasn't even picked that close to the top 32. He was the 42nd pick in the draft. If anyone out there had him rated as a top 20-25 guy, you'd think they would've shown a little more urgency in moving up to get him. Most likely the correct answer is the simplest answer. He didn't fall because his position was deep. He fell because that's where teams had him rated.

 

[BuzzCagney]

How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?

college football

Don't all college football player's play college football?

Exactly. The corners Matthews faces on Sundays will probably be as good as the top 5-10% he faced in college.

What he did against the other 90-95% doesn't necessarily tell us much.

There are loads of guys in college sports who feast on mediocre competition, but can't raise their game when they get to the pro level.

According to this article Matthews acquitted himself well against Watkins against common opponents. So should Watkins be downgraded.

Comparing Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews ... - RotoViz

 

[EBF]

How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?

college football

Don't all college football player's play college football?

Exactly. The corners Matthews faces on Sundays will probably be as good as the top 5-10% he faced in college.

What he did against the other 90-95% doesn't necessarily tell us much.

There are loads of guys in college sports who feast on mediocre competition, but can't raise their game when they get to the pro level.

According to this article Matthews acquitted himself well against Watkins against common opponents. So should Watkins be downgraded.

Comparing Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews ... - RotoViz

Only breezed through that article, but right away I noticed that they tried to say that Watkins at 6'1" 211 is "almost identical physically" to Matthews at 6'3" 212. That's a perfect example of what I was just talking about with the height/weight interplay being poorly understood in the FF community. I didn't think Watkins had a very strong combine overall, but the one thing that impressed me was how heavy he was for his height and how fast he ran for a guy with such a high BMI.

Putting that aside, what does their performance against common opponents tell us when the overwhelming majority of those common opponents will never start a game in the NFL? Not much. Gauging draft value isn't about trying to measure who is best at beating the average college corner. It's about trying to measure who will be best at beating the average pro corner. Two very different challenges, as I was just talking about.

 

[BuzzCagney]

How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?

college football

Don't all college football player's play college football?

Exactly. The corners Matthews faces on Sundays will probably be as good as the top 5-10% he faced in college.

What he did against the other 90-95% doesn't necessarily tell us much.

There are loads of guys in college sports who feast on mediocre competition, but can't raise their game when they get to the pro level.

According to this article Matthews acquitted himself well against Watkins against common opponents. So should Watkins be downgraded.

Comparing Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews ... - RotoViz

Only breezed through that article, but right away I noticed that they tried to say that Watkins at 6'1" 211 is "almost identical physically" to Matthews at 6'3" 212. That's a perfect example of what I was just talking about with the height/weight interplay being poorly understood in the FF community. I didn't think Watkins had a very strong combine overall, but the one thing that impressed me was how heavy he was for his height and how fast he ran for a guy with such a high BMI.

Putting that aside, what does their performance against common opponents tell us when the overwhelming majority of those common opponents will never start a game in the NFL? Not much. Gauging draft value isn't about trying to measure who is best at beating the average college corner. It's about trying to measure who will be best at beating the average pro corner. Two very different challenges, as I was just talking about.

What surprised me was how weak in the bench press Watkins was with his superior BMI.

I was also surprised how such a superior athlete as Watkins didn't totally dominate weaker competition.

 

[Xue]

How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?

college football

Don't all college football player's play college football?

Exactly. The corners Matthews faces on Sundays will probably be as good as the top 5-10% he faced in college.

What he did against the other 90-95% doesn't necessarily tell us much.

There are loads of guys in college sports who feast on mediocre competition, but can't raise their game when they get to the pro level.

According to this article Matthews acquitted himself well against Watkins against common opponents. So should Watkins be downgraded.

Comparing Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews ... - RotoViz

Only breezed through that article, but right away I noticed that they tried to say that Watkins at 6'1" 211 is "almost identical physically" to Matthews at 6'3" 212. That's a perfect example of what I was just talking about with the height/weight interplay being poorly understood in the FF community. I didn't think Watkins had a very strong combine overall, but the one thing that impressed me was how heavy he was for his height and how fast he ran for a guy with such a high BMI.

Putting that aside, what does their performance against common opponents tell us when the overwhelming majority of those common opponents will never start a game in the NFL? Not much. Gauging draft value isn't about trying to measure who is best at beating the average college corner. It's about trying to measure who will be best at beating the average pro corner. Two very different challenges, as I was just talking about.

The average pro corner isn't that good.

 

[renesauz]

How much of Jordan Matthews falling out of the first round had to do with this being one of the deepest WR classes ever?

No way to prove it, but I think in most years, he'd have been a rd 1 selection. Using NFL draft position to differentiate WRs' prospects is dubious even within a single year. But it can be totally unfair when comparing between differing years if there's a large discrepancy in class depth.

Unlikely, IMO.

I think players go approximately where their talent dictates regardless of the strength of their position in a given draft class. Like I said elsewhere, when there are lots of elite WR prospects in a draft, lots of WRs go in the first round. When there are no elite WR prospects in a draft, very few WRs go in the first round.

Teams don't sit there at their pick and say, "Well, we need a WR. There's nobody worth this pick at the position, but we'll take on here anyway." Likewise, they don't sit there and say "Wow, there are a lot of good running backs in this draft. Well, since those other teams already took McFadden and Stewart, we probably shouldn't pick Chris Johnson here."

I think you could see a little bit of that effect at a position like QB where you can only have one guy on the field at a time. If you already have Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers, there's pretty much nothing that could get you to spend a first round pick on a QB. But WR isn't like QB. You can play 2, 3, 4, or even 5 WRs on the field at the same time. So if you're sitting on the board and Julio Jones is available, you don't pass on him just because you already have Roddy White.

Beyond that, Matthews wasn't even picked that close to the top 32. He was the 42nd pick in the draft. If anyone out there had him rated as a top 20-25 guy, you'd think they would've shown a little more urgency in moving up to get him. Most likely the correct answer is the simplest answer. He didn't fall because his position was deep. He fell because that's where teams had him rated.

I think you're only partly right here. A couple of extra top tier prospects doesn't generally make a big difference.

Problem is- we aren't talking about a "couple" of extra top tier prospects. We're talking about what is generally considered the deepest WR draft in...well...perhaps ever. And we aren't talking about a guy who fell to the bottom of round 2 either- but a guy who went in the top half of the second round. Using draft position as a negative point is ridiculous in this case, IMHO.

He's a little lighter than the prototypical elite #1- but he's not light years lighter, and several have pointed out that for his size, he's actually pretty strong. There isn't just one, but at least 3 or 4 RECENT elite WR's that are in similar height/weight/BMI ranges that you yourself have pointed out. His size/strength simply isn't far enough from the "ideal" to make a convincing argument that he couldn't become elite.

It's more than OK to believe in 5 or 6 guys from this draft more- I can't fault anyone for ranking him 6th or so in this class- but your argument that he can't be elite because of his BMI or draft slot is just ridiculous. I have a lot more respect for an argument of "he fails the eyeball test to me".

There are at least 7 or 8 WR's from this class with the potential to become very strong or elite fantasy wideouts- and there's no way 8 WR's go in the first in any year, let alone one where most of the draft (other than RB) was at least average in depth.

 

[EBF]

How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?

college football

Don't all college football player's play college football?

Exactly. The corners Matthews faces on Sundays will probably be as good as the top 5-10% he faced in college.

What he did against the other 90-95% doesn't necessarily tell us much.

There are loads of guys in college sports who feast on mediocre competition, but can't raise their game when they get to the pro level.

According to this article Matthews acquitted himself well against Watkins against common opponents. So should Watkins be downgraded.

Comparing Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews ... - RotoViz

Only breezed through that article, but right away I noticed that they tried to say that Watkins at 6'1" 211 is "almost identical physically" to Matthews at 6'3" 212. That's a perfect example of what I was just talking about with the height/weight interplay being poorly understood in the FF community. I didn't think Watkins had a very strong combine overall, but the one thing that impressed me was how heavy he was for his height and how fast he ran for a guy with such a high BMI.

Putting that aside, what does their performance against common opponents tell us when the overwhelming majority of those common opponents will never start a game in the NFL? Not much. Gauging draft value isn't about trying to measure who is best at beating the average college corner. It's about trying to measure who will be best at beating the average pro corner. Two very different challenges, as I was just talking about.

The average pro corner isn't that good.

Yea, I'm sure it's easy to go out there in the NFL and catch 80 passes every season.

 

[EBF]

I think you're only partly right here. A couple of extra top tier prospects doesn't generally make a big difference.
Problem is- we aren't talking about a "couple" of extra top tier prospects. We're talking about what is generally considered the deepest WR draft in...well...perhaps ever. And we aren't talking about a guy who fell to the bottom of round 2 either- but a guy who went in the top half of the second round. Using draft position as a negative point is ridiculous in this case, IMHO.

People are free to look at the facts and interpret them however they want. If that's the story that you find most credible after weighing all the information then so be it. Personally, I don't think several teams would pass on "top tier" prospects from picks 33-41. The 2001 WR class with Santana Moss, and Reggie Wayne put six WRs in the first round. Even despite that, Quincy Morgan went 33rd overall and Chad Johnson went 36th overall. That's 8 WRs in the first 36 picks. IMO teams draft based on talent far more so than they draft on positional scarcity. Hence why in a great year you can get 8 WRs in the first 36 picks and in a bad year you can get one or two.

I don't think the deep WR class pushed Jordan Matthews down. I think Jordan Matthews pushed Jordan Matthews down.

Likewise, I don't think Lee/Adams/Robinson/Richardson/Latimer were "really" 1st round talents in the sense that they should have gone that high. They're promising players with some niggling little flaws that may or may not cripple their NFL value. In other words, pretty typical of the kind of receivers who usually go in the 2nd round.

 

[Brewtown]

I think you're only partly right here. A couple of extra top tier prospects doesn't generally make a big difference.

Problem is- we aren't talking about a "couple" of extra top tier prospects. We're talking about what is generally considered the deepest WR draft in...well...perhaps ever. And we aren't talking about a guy who fell to the bottom of round 2 either- but a guy who went in the top half of the second round. Using draft position as a negative point is ridiculous in this case, IMHO.

People are free to look at the facts and interpret them however they want. If that's the story that you find most credible after weighing all the information then so be it. Personally, I don't think several teams would pass on "top tier" prospects from picks 33-41. The 2001 WR class with Santana Moss, and Reggie Wayne put six WRs in the first round. Even despite that, Quincy Morgan went 33rd overall and Chad Johnson went 36th overall. That's 8 WRs in the first 36 picks. IMO teams draft based on talent far more so than they draft on positional scarcity. Hence why in a great year you can get 8 WRs in the first 36 picks and in a bad year you can get one or two.

I don't think the deep WR class pushed Jordan Matthews down. I think Jordan Matthews pushed Jordan Matthews down.

Likewise, I don't think Lee/Adams/Robinson/Richardson/Latimer were "really" 1st round talents in the sense that they should have gone that high. They're promising players with some niggling little flaws that may or may not cripple their NFL value. In other words, pretty typical of the kind of receivers who usually go in the 2nd round.

I disagree - supply and demand plays and played a big role. If NFL GMs use VBD (I think many do use this concept) they would realize that I don't need to take a WR high to get a fairly talented one. They could think that I'll just get one a little later who is also almost as good as what I could get in the first round and I'll focus on another position with my higher pick. There is no question in my mind that a guy like Donte Moncreif would have been a much higher selection in any other draft - guys with his size and speed don't grow on trees (except for this draft they almost did to an extent). This draft was so deep in terms of skill position talent that 1st round talents went in the second and third rounds. Lee, Latimer and Matthews have first round talent - just not in this draft...

Just look at how deep the rookie drafts are this year. The depth in this NFL Draft had to play a role in many NFL GM's minds this year!

 

[ShaHBucks]

I think you're only partly right here. A couple of extra top tier prospects doesn't generally make a big difference.

Problem is- we aren't talking about a "couple" of extra top tier prospects. We're talking about what is generally considered the deepest WR draft in...well...perhaps ever. And we aren't talking about a guy who fell to the bottom of round 2 either- but a guy who went in the top half of the second round. Using draft position as a negative point is ridiculous in this case, IMHO.

People are free to look at the facts and interpret them however they want. If that's the story that you find most credible after weighing all the information then so be it. Personally, I don't think several teams would pass on "top tier" prospects from picks 33-41. The 2001 WR class with Santana Moss, and Reggie Wayne put six WRs in the first round. Even despite that, Quincy Morgan went 33rd overall and Chad Johnson went 36th overall. That's 8 WRs in the first 36 picks. IMO teams draft based on talent far more so than they draft on positional scarcity. Hence why in a great year you can get 8 WRs in the first 36 picks and in a bad year you can get one or two.

I don't think the deep WR class pushed Jordan Matthews down. I think Jordan Matthews pushed Jordan Matthews down.

Likewise, I don't think Lee/Adams/Robinson/Richardson/Latimer were "really" 1st round talents in the sense that they should have gone that high. They're promising players with some niggling little flaws that may or may not cripple their NFL value. In other words, pretty typical of the kind of receivers who usually go in the 2nd round.

The NFL draft is very inefficient to begin with. He's going to be the best WR from this class. Wtf could he have possibly done to push himself down? The guy graduated from a great academic school, broke all the SEC recieving records and then shut everyone up that said he didn't have good speed at the combine. You're trying too hard here. You're blatantly ignoring the WRs I compared to Matthews. One of those guys went 4th overall (laugh now). Another I told you was the best WR from his class years ago. Pretty typical stuff from the NFL really. I'm not sweating it. He's going to be a stud.

 

[ShaHBucks]

college football ≠ pro football

Tim Tebow was a better college QB than Nick Foles. Who is better in the NFL?

Some things that work in college don't work in the NFL. Some traits that might only be marginally important in college might become crucial in the NFL.

Let's say you have a guy who can run by anyone in the world, but he'll always drop 10% of passes. We'll call him Player A. Now let's say you have another guy who never drops a pass. He can run by any college cornerback in the country, but he can only run by 80% of NFL corners. We'll call him Player B. In college Player B would be an absolute mega star. He'd be better than Player A because he'd get open as often and he'd drop fewer passes. However, in the NFL, his inability to get open against top competition would offset his hands. Suddenly Player B with his 10% drop rate, but 100% ability to get open would become the more productive player in that climate.

That isn't a specific argument against Matthews, but it shows some of the underlying ideas at work. Basically that the NFL is a different brand of football entirely compared with NCAA and the emphasizing/de-emphasizing of certain traits will influence how the players translate when making the jump. Hence why you can't just say, "Player A was a better college player than Player B. Therefore Player B will be better in the NFL." Stepfan Taylor was a better college running back than Christine Michael in certain respects. In the NFL, Michael looks a lot more viable. It is a different game altogether.

Likewise, I would take the elite athletic traits of Justin Hunter over the solid all-around game of Jordan Matthews for the NFL game. Matthews may have been more reliable and effective against amateur competition, but the lack of standout physical traits will probably become more of a problem against the higher caliber of defender found in the NFL. Meanwhile Hunter will still be faster and more explosive than just about everyone who lines up to stop him, even if he has some other deficiencies.

You're admitting that you don't know how college production translates to finding prospects with higher probability of NFL success. Some of us have a clue (I told you Stepfan Taylor stunk ), or follow those who do. Matthews is as good as it gets in that regard.

 

[Xue]

How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?

college football

Don't all college football player's play college football?

Exactly. The corners Matthews faces on Sundays will probably be as good as the top 5-10% he faced in college.

What he did against the other 90-95% doesn't necessarily tell us much.

There are loads of guys in college sports who feast on mediocre competition, but can't raise their game when they get to the pro level.

According to this article Matthews acquitted himself well against Watkins against common opponents. So should Watkins be downgraded.

Comparing Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews ... - RotoViz

Only breezed through that article, but right away I noticed that they tried to say that Watkins at 6'1" 211 is "almost identical physically" to Matthews at 6'3" 212. That's a perfect example of what I was just talking about with the height/weight interplay being poorly understood in the FF community. I didn't think Watkins had a very strong combine overall, but the one thing that impressed me was how heavy he was for his height and how fast he ran for a guy with such a high BMI.

Putting that aside, what does their performance against common opponents tell us when the overwhelming majority of those common opponents will never start a game in the NFL? Not much. Gauging draft value isn't about trying to measure who is best at beating the average college corner. It's about trying to measure who will be best at beating the average pro corner. Two very different challenges, as I was just talking about.

The average pro corner isn't that good.

Yea, I'm sure it's easy to go out there in the NFL and catch 80 passes every season.

Save me the sarcasm. I'm just stating the facts. If you look at PFF ratings, there are only about 5 "shutdown" corners, a few "good" ones, and the rest "break even" or are just plain terrible.

"He dominated in college because his college opponents weren't as good as his NFL opponents will be." You can use that argument for Cornerbacks as well.

 

[EBF]

The NFL draft is very inefficient to begin with. He's going to be the best WR from this class. Wtf could he have possibly done to push himself down?

Good question. I can't poll all 32 teams and ask them why none of them took him in the 1st, but that's what it is.

You're blatantly ignoring the WRs I compared to Matthews. One of those guys went 4th overall (laugh now). Another I told you was the best WR from his class years ago. Pretty typical stuff from the NFL really. I'm not sweating it. He's going to be a stud.

Okay, that settles it then.

 

[EBF]

How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?

college football

Don't all college football player's play college football?

Exactly. The corners Matthews faces on Sundays will probably be as good as the top 5-10% he faced in college.

What he did against the other 90-95% doesn't necessarily tell us much.

There are loads of guys in college sports who feast on mediocre competition, but can't raise their game when they get to the pro level.

According to this article Matthews acquitted himself well against Watkins against common opponents. So should Watkins be downgraded.

Comparing Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews ... - RotoViz

Only breezed through that article, but right away I noticed that they tried to say that Watkins at 6'1" 211 is "almost identical physically" to Matthews at 6'3" 212. That's a perfect example of what I was just talking about with the height/weight interplay being poorly understood in the FF community. I didn't think Watkins had a very strong combine overall, but the one thing that impressed me was how heavy he was for his height and how fast he ran for a guy with such a high BMI.

Putting that aside, what does their performance against common opponents tell us when the overwhelming majority of those common opponents will never start a game in the NFL? Not much. Gauging draft value isn't about trying to measure who is best at beating the average college corner. It's about trying to measure who will be best at beating the average pro corner. Two very different challenges, as I was just talking about.

The average pro corner isn't that good.

Yea, I'm sure it's easy to go out there in the NFL and catch 80 passes every season.

Save me the sarcasm. I'm just stating the facts. If you look at PFF ratings, there are only about 5 "shutdown" corners, a few "good" ones, and the rest "break even" or are just plain terrible.

"He dominated in college because his college opponents weren't as good as his NFL opponents will be." You can use that argument for Cornerbacks as well.

Yea, and those PFF statistics are all based on their performance covering NFL WRs.

Saying the "average pro corner isn't that good" is just mind-numbingly dumb. These are the best players in the world at their job.

The SEC is a good college league, but it's a far cry from the NFL in terms of average player quality. This really shouldn't be a controversial point.

 

[renesauz]

How did he consistently dominate in the SEC the last two years?

college football

Don't all college football player's play college football?

Exactly. The corners Matthews faces on Sundays will probably be as good as the top 5-10% he faced in college.

What he did against the other 90-95% doesn't necessarily tell us much.

There are loads of guys in college sports who feast on mediocre competition, but can't raise their game when they get to the pro level.

According to this article Matthews acquitted himself well against Watkins against common opponents. So should Watkins be downgraded.

Comparing Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews ... - RotoViz

Only breezed through that article, but right away I noticed that they tried to say that Watkins at 6'1" 211 is "almost identical physically" to Matthews at 6'3" 212. That's a perfect example of what I was just talking about with the height/weight interplay being poorly understood in the FF community. I didn't think Watkins had a very strong combine overall, but the one thing that impressed me was how heavy he was for his height and how fast he ran for a guy with such a high BMI.

Putting that aside, what does their performance against common opponents tell us when the overwhelming majority of those common opponents will never start a game in the NFL? Not much. Gauging draft value isn't about trying to measure who is best at beating the average college corner. It's about trying to measure who will be best at beating the average pro corner. Two very different challenges, as I was just talking about.

The average pro corner isn't that good.

Yea, I'm sure it's easy to go out there in the NFL and catch 80 passes every season.

Save me the sarcasm. I'm just stating the facts. If you look at PFF ratings, there are only about 5 "shutdown" corners, a few "good" ones, and the rest "break even" or are just plain terrible.

"He dominated in college because his college opponents weren't as good as his NFL opponents will be." You can use that argument for Cornerbacks as well.

Yea, and those PFF statistics are all based on their performance covering NFL WRs.

Saying the "average pro corner isn't that good" is just mind-numbingly dumb. These are the best players in the world at their job.

The SEC is a good college league, but it's a far cry from the NFL in terms of average player quality. This really shouldn't be a controversial point.

Well gee...why look at college production for ANYBODY then? Why bother having 50 scouts out watching players when you can just judge them all in shorts at the combine with 1/4 the staff? After all- college production is meaningless since they all suck???

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

The reason this thread gathers so much friction is because Matthews is truly on the cusp of what most here would project as an elite prospect. Matthews is within a range of metrics and college production that captures many recent elite and proven WRs. He's not a can't miss prospect like Julio and A.J. recently were but he's also not a boom/bust prospect. I think most of us agree Matthews has a high floor, maybe the highest floor in the 2014 class. He's faster than most thought but still not Julio Jones fast. He's tall but lean. His jumps are average. Since his metrics aren't chart toppers, we have to rely more on college production and intangibles.

For me, ultimately I think he's a very high floor WR with good-great upside. I love his college production where he accounted for nearly 50% of all his team's receiving stats. I love his intelligence and work ethic. At pick 6+ in rookie PPRs, he's the perfect WR to draft. He went to a great team for fantasy purposes, assuming Chip remains the coach for a few years and I can't see Matthews being irrelevant in the NFL. His work ethic alone should give him a solid foundation to be a reliable journeyman at worst.

If you examine all the criteria objectively, you realize he excelled at the most important thing (actual games) in a tough conference, he is above average (at worst) to low-level elite in metrics and has a reputation for being a workaholic. It seems obvious that Matthews has nothing but upside with a high floor (minimal risk).

 

[EBF]

After all- college production is meaningless since they all suck???

On its own, it has limited predictive value.

The main variables for me are:

- college production

- draft position

- measurables

- eyeball test

Matthews really only looks special in one of those categories. High draft slot, but not an elite draft slot. Modest workout numbers. IMO looks just solid in the eyeball test. Certainly doesn't pop off the screen like a freak. I think the odds of him becoming an elite pro WR based on his generic traits are pretty low, so it's the pro-Matthews crowd that's stretching here. You like him? Fine. Don't expect everyone to agree with you.

I don't see why you need to get so touchy about it. I like Allen Robinson, but I'm not in his thread trying to tell everyone he's AJ Green just because he has a few similarities. Like I said, for whatever reason, Matthews is a player who inspires a very fiery response in his supporters. He already has a 7 page thread going strong here. Meanwhile there's comparatively little hysteria over Adams, Robinson, Landry, Richardson, and Lee.

 

[Milkman]

Lol at anybody getting mad.

Anyway his measureables are elite to. You kind of moved the goal post on us EBF but he fell in the lower end for your cut off on BMI. He's 6'3 212 pounds and he ran a 4.6. His jumps aren't off the charts but they are above average. Add his work ethic and situation and he's an elite prospect.

 

[renesauz]

After all- college production is meaningless since they all suck???

On its own, it has limited predictive value.

The main variables for me are:

- college production

- draft position

- measurables

- eyeball test

Matthews really only looks special in one of those categories. High draft slot, but not an elite draft slot. Modest workout numbers. IMO looks just solid in the eyeball test. Certainly doesn't pop off the screen like a freak. I think the odds of him becoming an elite pro WR based on his generic traits are pretty low, so it's the pro-Matthews crowd that's stretching here. You like him? Fine. Don't expect everyone to agree with you.

I don't see why you need to get so touchy about it. I like Allen Robinson, but I'm not in his thread trying to tell everyone he's AJ Green just because he has a few similarities. Like I said, for whatever reason, Matthews is a player who inspires a very fiery response in his supporters. He already has a 7 page thread going strong here. Meanwhile there's comparatively little hysteria over Adams, Robinson, Landry, Richardson, and Lee.

I'm not touchy about it at all. As I said earlier, I have no issue with putting him as low as WR7 in this gifted draft class. I also have no issue with calling him "just solid" in the eyeball test. Where I've questioned you is the arguments you've made regarding size (when he is in the ballpark size wise) and draft position.

The truth is that he is elite in at least one of your four variables here- college production. He is borderline elite (at worst) in a second- draft position (assuming you consider a normal year's late 1st to be elite). Throw in scores of above average in your other two variables (other than the specific measurable of size) and consider his elite work ethic, and I find your argument that he can't be elite less than convincing. I don't personally consider him to be an elite prospect on the order of Megatron or Julio when they came out, or even Watkins and Evans this year, but I do think he has an extremely high floor and a non-zero chance of hitting that elite status as a player. I have him at #3 in the class.

 

[EBF]

I'm not touchy about it at all. As I said earlier, I have no issue with putting him as low as WR7 in this gifted draft class. I also have no issue with calling him "just solid" in the eyeball test. Where I've questioned you is the arguments you've made regarding size (when he is in the ballpark size wise) and draft position.

The truth is that he is elite in at least one of your four variables here- college production. He is borderline elite (at worst) in a second- draft position (assuming you consider a normal year's late 1st to be elite). Throw in scores of above average in your other two variables (other than the specific measurable of size) and consider his elite work ethic, and I find your argument that he can't be elite less than convincing. I don't personally consider him to be an elite prospect on the order of Megatron or Julio when they came out, or even Watkins and Evans this year, but I do think he has an extremely high floor and a non-zero chance of hitting that elite status as a player. I have him at #3 in the class.

Okay, we just see it a little differently. I already spent plenty of time in this thread explaining that "elite" WRs usually don't fall out of the first round and when they do it's usually because of an obvious excuse (which Matthews lacks). I also showed what the typical "elite" WR1 looks like from a physical tools standpoint and why he doesn't really stack up with the averages. I don't see it as a slight on him to say he isn't elite when most of the variables indicate that he isn't. I actually see it as the most honest objective assessment.

IMO most of the people arguing that he has legitimate star potential are banking too heavily on the college production variable and the idea that he has "prototypical" WR1 tools (which I believe is not true, for reasons that I explained at length earlier). Really don't have much more to say about it at this point.

 

[Milkman]

Carolina should have drafted him in the 1st instead of Benjamin. They are going to regret that decision. .....

 

[dhockster]

I'm not touchy about it at all. As I said earlier, I have no issue with putting him as low as WR7 in this gifted draft class. I also have no issue with calling him "just solid" in the eyeball test. Where I've questioned you is the arguments you've made regarding size (when he is in the ballpark size wise) and draft position.

The truth is that he is elite in at least one of your four variables here- college production. He is borderline elite (at worst) in a second- draft position (assuming you consider a normal year's late 1st to be elite). Throw in scores of above average in your other two variables (other than the specific measurable of size) and consider his elite work ethic, and I find your argument that he can't be elite less than convincing. I don't personally consider him to be an elite prospect on the order of Megatron or Julio when they came out, or even Watkins and Evans this year, but I do think he has an extremely high floor and a non-zero chance of hitting that elite status as a player. I have him at #3 in the class.

Okay, we just see it a little differently. I already spent plenty of time in this thread explaining that "elite" WRs usually don't fall out of the first round and when they do it's usually because of an obvious excuse (which Matthews lacks). I also showed what the typical "elite" WR1 looks like from a physical tools standpoint and why he doesn't really stack up with the averages. I don't see it as a slight on him to say he isn't elite when most of the variables indicate that he isn't. I actually see it as the most honest objective assessment.

IMO most of the people arguing that he has legitimate star potential are banking too heavily on the college production variable and the idea that he has "prototypical" WR1 tools (which I believe is not true, for reasons that I explained at length earlier). Really don't have much more to say about it at this point.

I would be curious about how many of the elite receivers in the NFL besides having the physical tools also were students of the game and non-stop workers. Jerry Rice was obviously one who took great talent and added to it by continually working to get better at his game. Randy Moss had the great talent, but didn't necessarily always work to be better.

I ask that question because I think whatever issues Matthews runs into in the NFL from being covered by more physically dominant corners, he is smart enough, and works hard enough that he has a good chance to overcome, on some level how they defend him. Will that make him elite? Maybe not, but at a minimum, I think he will be a highly productive NFL receiver.

Do you give any weight to his smarts and his work ethic being able to take him higher than just his physical attributes would?

 

[ShaHBucks]

After all- college production is meaningless since they all suck???

On its own, it has limited predictive value.

The main variables for me are:

- college production

- draft position

- measurables

- eyeball test

Matthews really only looks special in one of those categories. High draft slot, but not an elite draft slot. Modest workout numbers. IMO looks just solid in the eyeball test. Certainly doesn't pop off the screen like a freak. I think the odds of him becoming an elite pro WR based on his generic traits are pretty low, so it's the pro-Matthews crowd that's stretching here. You like him? Fine. Don't expect everyone to agree with you.

I don't see why you need to get so touchy about it. I like Allen Robinson, but I'm not in his thread trying to tell everyone he's AJ Green just because he has a few similarities. Like I said, for whatever reason, Matthews is a player who inspires a very fiery response in his supporters. He already has a 7 page thread going strong here. Meanwhile there's comparatively little hysteria over Adams, Robinson, Landry, Richardson, and Lee.

No one called them overrated

 

[WagesOfZin]

The reason this thread gathers so much friction is because Matthews is truly on the cusp of what most here would project as an elite prospect. Matthews is within a range of metrics and college production that captures many recent elite and proven WRs. He's not a can't miss prospect like Julio and A.J. recently were but he's also not a boom/bust prospect. I think most of us agree Matthews has a high floor, maybe the highest floor in the 2014 class. He's faster than most thought but still not Julio Jones fast. He's tall but lean. His jumps are average. Since his metrics aren't chart toppers, we have to rely more on college production and intangibles.

For me, ultimately I think he's a very high floor WR with good-great upside. I love his college production where he accounted for nearly 50% of all his team's receiving stats. I love his intelligence and work ethic. At pick 6+ in rookie PPRs, he's the perfect WR to draft. He went to a great team for fantasy purposes, assuming Chip remains the coach for a few years and I can't see Matthews being irrelevant in the NFL. His work ethic alone should give him a solid foundation to be a reliable journeyman at worst.

If you examine all the criteria objectively, you realize he excelled at the most important thing (actual games) in a tough conference, he is above average (at worst) to low-level elite in metrics and has a reputation for being a workaholic. It seems obvious that Matthews has nothing but upside with a high floor (minimal risk).

great post.

 

[VaTerp]

Carolina should have drafted him in the 1st instead of Benjamin. They are going to regret that decision. .....

I'm obviously on the side that thinks Matthews is somewhat overrated and also happen to be a lifelong FSU fan.

But I'd have to agree with this. I'm not very high on Benjamin's pro potential and think Matthews is a much safer pick who also offers some upside. How much upside, of course, is the crux of this debate.

 

[EBF]

Do you give any weight to his smarts and his work ethic being able to take him higher than just his physical attributes would?

I think it matters some, but not much.

I don't think Demaryius, VJax, Andre, Calvin, Marshall, and Dez got where they are because they work harder than everyone else. They are simply more talented (primarily physically) than the other WRs in football. Even a guy like Fitzgerald who has a reputation as a gym rat is still just a prototypical #1 with rare physical tools. Take those away and he wouldn't be a Pro Bowl type of guy. To make a basketball analogy, you can't become Lebron James on hard work alone. You also have to be born 6'8" 240 with the freaky speed, quickness, and explosiveness.

Same deal in football. When everyone is working pretty hard, it will be the guys with the most talent who achieve the most success.

 

[Milkman]

The word I'm hearing out of camp is that Matthews looks big and fast. He is apparently not lost with the playbook either.