TE Jordan Matthews, CAR (1 Viewer)

[dhockster]

Khy, you don't go talking about what Matthews did vs good opponents and then say you like OBJ more in the same post. Matthews has 3 years of good production for the record.

Man, I swear people don't read what I write and just read names.

My entire point is that college production for a WR is irrelevant. That's been my whole point for the past two pages. Somehow nobody seems to get that. The only reason I'm using stats this whole time is to show that theres literally zero correlation between good college stats and good nfl stats. Talent is what matters in the NFL. I think OBJ is significantly more talented than Matthews and in just as good of a system if not better to suit his strengths. I've also made it vocal that I'm not even remotely as high on Foles and Kelly as most are around these boards. The Giants also attempted 60 more passes last season and might pass even more this season, which means there are a lot more balls to go around for OBJ. I really couldn't care less about statistics in the NCAA though, it's a bunch of 23 year olds beating up on 12 year olds as far as I see it. The talent gaps are so enormous it's just silly. When I watch college tape I look for position mechanics, athletic ability and mental understanding of the game. When I look at Matthews on tape I see all three of these traits as middle of the road. Where as to me OBJ has a great to elite rating to me in all 3 categories.

And just for note: I felt the same way long before the Giants drafted him, although I was really hoping they would take him if Evans didn't fall to them.

The Giants passed 60 more times for about 500 less yards than the Eagles. I assume that's because the Giants had to throw because they were behind so much. The Eagles threw more when they wanted to which is why they were

more efficient throwing the ball.

Based on the bolded, do you think you might have a little rooting bias against the Eagles and their players? I will be the first to admit I want Matthews to do well because I am an Eagles fan.

Nope, absolutely not. He wasn't even in my Top 10 WRs coming into the draft, actually not even Top 15. His landing spot definitely shot him up my boards some but not to where his ADP is... meanwhile I had OBJ as #3 on my personal boards before and after the draft. I don't like Matthews because... I just don't like Matthews. Has absolutely zero to do with the Eagles as a landing spot, if anything I'm actually higher on him now that he is an Eagle than I was before the draft when he could've went anywhere. Still doesn't change my opinion that I think his floor and his ceiling aren't that far from each other. I think he'll be a solid WR3/4 most of his career and post maybe 1-2 WR2 seasons along the way. But that's his ceiling to me, I really don't see him as a guy who will ever flirt with WR1 numbers regardless of his QB, system or team.

Fair enough. Just curious, why are you not high on Foles and Kelly?

 

[Khy]

Khy, you don't go talking about what Matthews did vs good opponents and then say you like OBJ more in the same post. Matthews has 3 years of good production for the record.

Man, I swear people don't read what I write and just read names.

My entire point is that college production for a WR is irrelevant. That's been my whole point for the past two pages. Somehow nobody seems to get that. The only reason I'm using stats this whole time is to show that theres literally zero correlation between good college stats and good nfl stats. Talent is what matters in the NFL. I think OBJ is significantly more talented than Matthews and in just as good of a system if not better to suit his strengths. I've also made it vocal that I'm not even remotely as high on Foles and Kelly as most are around these boards. The Giants also attempted 60 more passes last season and might pass even more this season, which means there are a lot more balls to go around for OBJ. I really couldn't care less about statistics in the NCAA though, it's a bunch of 23 year olds beating up on 12 year olds as far as I see it. The talent gaps are so enormous it's just silly. When I watch college tape I look for position mechanics, athletic ability and mental understanding of the game. When I look at Matthews on tape I see all three of these traits as middle of the road. Where as to me OBJ has a great to elite rating to me in all 3 categories.

And just for note: I felt the same way long before the Giants drafted him, although I was really hoping they would take him if Evans didn't fall to them.

The Giants passed 60 more times for about 500 less yards than the Eagles. I assume that's because the Giants had to throw because they were behind so much. The Eagles threw more when they wanted to which is why they were

more efficient throwing the ball.

Based on the bolded, do you think you might have a little rooting bias against the Eagles and their players? I will be the first to admit I want Matthews to do well because I am an Eagles fan.

Nope, absolutely not. He wasn't even in my Top 10 WRs coming into the draft, actually not even Top 15. His landing spot definitely shot him up my boards some but not to where his ADP is... meanwhile I had OBJ as #3 on my personal boards before and after the draft. I don't like Matthews because... I just don't like Matthews. Has absolutely zero to do with the Eagles as a landing spot, if anything I'm actually higher on him now that he is an Eagle than I was before the draft when he could've went anywhere. Still doesn't change my opinion that I think his floor and his ceiling aren't that far from each other. I think he'll be a solid WR3/4 most of his career and post maybe 1-2 WR2 seasons along the way. But that's his ceiling to me, I really don't see him as a guy who will ever flirt with WR1 numbers regardless of his QB, system or team.

Fair enough. Just curious, why are you not high on Foles and Kelly?

Because his season last year was so much of an outlier I think he's going to crash down to earth instead of just fall.

http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2014/06/11/nfl-quarterback-research-1978-2013-nick-foles-in-proper-context/

This is a wonderful article about how absolutely ridiculous Foles 2013 season was last year. As well as a very interesting stat on what to expect from him.

 

[Jrodicus]

Khy, you don't go talking about what Matthews did vs good opponents and then say you like OBJ more in the same post. Matthews has 3 years of good production for the record.

Man, I swear people don't read what I write and just read names.

My entire point is that college production for a WR is irrelevant. That's been my whole point for the past two pages. Somehow nobody seems to get that. The only reason I'm using stats this whole time is to show that theres literally zero correlation between good college stats and good nfl stats. Talent is what matters in the NFL. I think OBJ is significantly more talented than Matthews and in just as good of a system if not better to suit his strengths. I've also made it vocal that I'm not even remotely as high on Foles and Kelly as most are around these boards. The Giants also attempted 60 more passes last season and might pass even more this season, which means there are a lot more balls to go around for OBJ. I really couldn't care less about statistics in the NCAA though, it's a bunch of 23 year olds beating up on 12 year olds as far as I see it. The talent gaps are so enormous it's just silly. When I watch college tape I look for position mechanics, athletic ability and mental understanding of the game. When I look at Matthews on tape I see all three of these traits as middle of the road. Where as to me OBJ has a great to elite rating to me in all 3 categories.

And just for note: I felt the same way long before the Giants drafted him, although I was really hoping they would take him if Evans didn't fall to them.

The Giants passed 60 more times for about 500 less yards than the Eagles. I assume that's because the Giants had to throw because they were behind so much. The Eagles threw more when they wanted to which is why they were

more efficient throwing the ball.

Based on the bolded, do you think you might have a little rooting bias against the Eagles and their players? I will be the first to admit I want Matthews to do well because I am an Eagles fan.

Nope, absolutely not. He wasn't even in my Top 10 WRs coming into the draft, actually not even Top 15. His landing spot definitely shot him up my boards some but not to where his ADP is... meanwhile I had OBJ as #3 on my personal boards before and after the draft. I don't like Matthews because... I just don't like Matthews. Has absolutely zero to do with the Eagles as a landing spot, if anything I'm actually higher on him now that he is an Eagle than I was before the draft when he could've went anywhere. Still doesn't change my opinion that I think his floor and his ceiling aren't that far from each other. I think he'll be a solid WR3/4 most of his career and post maybe 1-2 WR2 seasons along the way. But that's his ceiling to me, I really don't see him as a guy who will ever flirt with WR1 numbers regardless of his QB, system or team.

Just curious - who were the 15 WRs you had ahead of him?

 

[Brewtown]

Didn't Sammy Watkins take a ton of screens last year too?

Yes.

Thanks. If someone can tell me the difference is, that would be great.

Watkins displays consistent clear ability to create separation vs man coverage and run the full route tree effectively

This running of a full route tree seems like a pretty basic skill for a WR that can be taught/learned (especially with someone of Matthews athletic ability and bloodline). You think Jerry Rice's cousin won't be able to run decent routes : )So, in your film study, you did not see the full route tree, and in your opinion he did not demonstrate this in college. Part of what we do in evaluating is predicting how talent translates to the NFL. Wouldn't any reasonable scout/man think that a very good athlete like Matthews would probably have no problem running the full route tree?

no, because he's not sudden enough to shake man coverage most of the time when he runs routes in college, except for a few hitch and go routes. He doesnt display quick twitch in his open field running either. It's not just about running the route the way it is drawn on paper, it is about having the footwork and subtle movements/changes of speed to create separation. if he isnt creating separation vs man in the SEC, it aint gonna get any easier on Sundays.

Ok, I get what you are saying and your point. There may be something to that (looking at his numbers - he had a lot of catches but did not excel in the red zone like you'd think a high target guy of his size would). Coverage gets tighter inside the 20's, and it looks like he did not perform as well as he did between the 20's.But he is still 6'3", runs a 4.4, and did decent in other events at the combine. He also produced well in the SEC with the routes he ran.

Not that Sundays are going to get any easier, but isn't the SEC the closest competition level to the NFL available?

He also didn't have Johnny Unitas as his QB at Vandy either...

Hey Bloom - word out of Philly is Matthews looks like the best WR that they have on Chip Kelly's roster ALREADY.... Sounds like the route tree is not a problem...You might want to begin the spin/damage control back-tracking on your opinion... While your at it - you may want to do the same with your evaluation of Sankey and the entire 2014 RB class.... All of your podcast buddies too...

 

[EBF]

this one line captures it all EBF, and is the reason so many believe this kid COULD be special:

Baldinger reiterated a point Eagles officials have made - you don't become the SEC's all-time leading receiver, playing for a Vanderbilt team that lacks other weapons, against defenses designed to stop you, without having a special drive.

It's nice that he has a good work ethic, but I'll take an ultra talented guy with a good work ethic over a modest talent with a good work ethic. On some level it just comes down to genetics. Lebron and Calvin didn't get where they are by out-working everyone.

 

[EBF]

this is what i don't understand. the guy has a history of producing and has undisputed IQ, football IQ, and work ethic. once again.....he has a well established history of production. now that he's in OTAs, he's getting more chatter, by a good margin, than any other rookie WR across the league.

yet, it keeps going back to "but BMI!! but arm length!! but vert!! but! but! but! let me find another measureable!"

do you want to be right, or do you want to get it right? me personally, i want to get it right. what has he done and what is he currently doing? producing (well, as much as you can "produce" in OTAs).

This all sounds nice, but honestly most of the people talking about BMI and workout numbers in this thread probably haven't spent much time looking at it. From my view, it's hard to take them seriously with regards to those specific topics when they really have no knowledge on the subject. I've never taken Dutch lessons. Therefore I don't talk to people from the Netherlands and try to correct how they speak. Likewise, I'd take people more seriously on the topic of workout numbers if they actually showed that they've done their homework on it. Most haven't and just dismiss it outright as witch doctor mumbo jumbo.

I'll say this about Matthews though. I think he's well-poised to have a solid rookie year. People mentioned how he looks like the best WR on the team in OTAs. Well...the only two other notable receivers on the roster are Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin, two guys who couldn't find a 1000 yard season if you spotted them 999. If Matthews is as polished as advertised then he should walk into a prominent role right away. The question is will he come in and be something like a Maclin or Mike Williams type of guy who does well right away, but doesn't have any real ceiling beyond just "good" or will he develop into a legitimate difference-maker? You can guess which way I lean. Really good situation for at least the next year though.

 

[Brewtown]

this is what i don't understand. the guy has a history of producing and has undisputed IQ, football IQ, and work ethic. once again.....he has a well established history of production. now that he's in OTAs, he's getting more chatter, by a good margin, than any other rookie WR across the league.

yet, it keeps going back to "but BMI!! but arm length!! but vert!! but! but! but! let me find another measureable!"

do you want to be right, or do you want to get it right? me personally, i want to get it right. what has he done and what is he currently doing? producing (well, as much as you can "produce" in OTAs).

This all sounds nice, but honestly most of the people talking about BMI and workout numbers in this thread probably haven't spent much time looking at it. From my view, it's hard to take them seriously with regards to those specific topics when they really have no knowledge on the subject. I've never taken Dutch lessons. Therefore I don't talk to people from the Netherlands and try to correct how they speak. Likewise, I'd take people more seriously on the topic of workout numbers if they actually showed that they've done their homework on it. Most haven't and just dismiss it outright as witch doctor mumbo jumbo.

I'll say this about Matthews though. I think he's well-poised to have a solid rookie year. People mentioned how he looks like the best WR on the team in OTAs. Well...the only two other notable receivers on the roster are Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin, two guys who couldn't find a 1000 yard season if you spotted them 999. If Matthews is as polished as advertised then he should walk into a prominent role right away. The question is will he come in and be something like a Maclin or Mike Williams type of guy who comes in and does well right away, but doesn't have any real ceiling beyond just "good" or will he develop into a legitimate difference-maker? You can guess which way I lean. Really good situation for at least the next year though.

BEEP - BEEP - BEEP...

You hear that sound???

 

[Milkman]

Lol

 

[Brewtown]

The fact that he has near-prototypical WR size only makes his work ethic more relevant. I have to assume he will add "man weight" in the next few years. Again, the only thing that doesn't pop is the tape but I'm moving forward with the assumption that the tape isn't telling the whole story with Matthews.

He doesn't have near prototypical size. He's built like Reggie Wayne or AJ Green, not Vincent Jackson or Andre Johnson. Not much weight for his height. I don't see him as a prime candidate to develop more since he was a four year college player and is 1+ years older than many of his draft peers.

I'll be surprised if he's a complete flop, but I'll be more surprised if he's ever more than WR2-WR3 in FF.

BEEP - BEEP - BEEP...

 

[cr8f]

this one line captures it all EBF, and is the reason so many believe this kid COULD be special:

Baldinger reiterated a point Eagles officials have made - you don't become the SEC's all-time leading receiver, playing for a Vanderbilt team that lacks other weapons, against defenses designed to stop you, without having a special drive.

It's nice that he has a good work ethic, but I'll take an ultra talented guy with a good work ethic over a modest talent with a good work ethic. On some level it just comes down to genetics. Lebron and Calvin didn't get where they are by out-working everyone.

If you're against him I like him even more.

 

[Milkman]

You guys are killing me tonight. We all hit or miss on players and it's way to early to claim any sort of victory yet.

 

[Brewtown]

You guys are killing me tonight. We all hit or miss on players and it's way to early to claim any sort of victory yet.

Apparently it's not to early to BEEP - BEEP - BEEP

 

[squistion]

this one line captures it all EBF, and is the reason so many believe this kid COULD be special:

Baldinger reiterated a point Eagles officials have made - you don't become the SEC's all-time leading receiver, playing for a Vanderbilt team that lacks other weapons, against defenses designed to stop you, without having a special drive.

It's nice that he has a good work ethic, but I'll take an ultra talented guy with a good work ethic over a modest talent with a good work ethic. On some level it just comes down to genetics. Lebron and Calvin didn't get where they are by out-working everyone.

If you're against him I like him even more.

I agree but it is hard to win a fantasy football argument with someone who is an expert on genetics.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Didn't Sammy Watkins take a ton of screens last year too?

Yes.

Thanks. If someone can tell me the difference is, that would be great.

Watkins displays consistent clear ability to create separation vs man coverage and run the full route tree effectively

This running of a full route tree seems like a pretty basic skill for a WR that can be taught/learned (especially with someone of Matthews athletic ability and bloodline). You think Jerry Rice's cousin won't be able to run decent routes : )So, in your film study, you did not see the full route tree, and in your opinion he did not demonstrate this in college. Part of what we do in evaluating is predicting how talent translates to the NFL. Wouldn't any reasonable scout/man think that a very good athlete like Matthews would probably have no problem running the full route tree?

no, because he's not sudden enough to shake man coverage most of the time when he runs routes in college, except for a few hitch and go routes. He doesnt display quick twitch in his open field running either. It's not just about running the route the way it is drawn on paper, it is about having the footwork and subtle movements/changes of speed to create separation. if he isnt creating separation vs man in the SEC, it aint gonna get any easier on Sundays.

Ok, I get what you are saying and your point. There may be something to that (looking at his numbers - he had a lot of catches but did not excel in the red zone like you'd think a high target guy of his size would). Coverage gets tighter inside the 20's, and it looks like he did not perform as well as he did between the 20's.But he is still 6'3", runs a 4.4, and did decent in other events at the combine. He also produced well in the SEC with the routes he ran.

Not that Sundays are going to get any easier, but isn't the SEC the closest competition level to the NFL available?

He also didn't have Johnny Unitas as his QB at Vandy either...

Hey Bloom - word out of Philly is Matthews looks like the best WR that they have on Chip Kelly's roster ALREADY.... Sounds like the route tree is not a problem...You might want to begin the spin/damage control back-tracking on your opinion... While your at it - you may want to do the same with your evaluation of Sankey and the entire 2014 RB class.... All of your podcast buddies too...

You might have missed the next tweet where Jimmy Kempski said Cooper and Maclin were probably taking it easy in June.

 

[WagesOfZin]

this one line captures it all EBF, and is the reason so many believe this kid COULD be special:

Baldinger reiterated a point Eagles officials have made - you don't become the SEC's all-time leading receiver, playing for a Vanderbilt team that lacks other weapons, against defenses designed to stop you, without having a special drive.

It's nice that he has a good work ethic, but I'll take an ultra talented guy with a good work ethic over a modest talent with a good work ethic. On some level it just comes down to genetics. Lebron and Calvin didn't get where they are by out-working everyone.

wate. wut?

 

[EBF]

this one line captures it all EBF, and is the reason so many believe this kid COULD be special:

Baldinger reiterated a point Eagles officials have made - you don't become the SEC's all-time leading receiver, playing for a Vanderbilt team that lacks other weapons, against defenses designed to stop you, without having a special drive.

It's nice that he has a good work ethic, but I'll take an ultra talented guy with a good work ethic over a modest talent with a good work ethic. On some level it just comes down to genetics. Lebron and Calvin didn't get where they are by out-working everyone.

wate. wut?

Is it complicated? Those guys were born with physical talents that even their peers at the highest levels of their sports can't match.

Hard work is important, but lots of people in the NFL and the NBA work hard and yet there's still only one Calvin and one Lebron. Why is that? Because nobody else in their sport was born with the same physical talent. Hard work + talent = success. Hard work + more talent = more success.

It's a deterministic view of things and lots of people want to believe that their destiny is entirely in their control, so I understand why it's not palatable for some. Still I think if you're being honest with yourself you'll see that hard work isn't what separates the likes of VJax/Andre/Dez from the likes of D Baldwin/K Walter/N Burleson.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

This thread has reached a ridiculousness of epic proportions. NO rookie can be fully judged until their 6th year in the league. Sometimes, only when a player is elite, you can find out sooner. But for players who make take time to develop, at least by year 6, most players are what they are. This is where I have to clarify - there are no absolutes. But for the most part a large % of players have established their talent tier no later than season 6 judging by NFL/fantasy standards.

Until page 9/10, this thread had some valid discussion points that help us all make our final conclusions on Jordan Matthews heading into the 2014 season and an entire NFL career.

It is going to be awesome when this argument is settled on the field, though.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Watkins didn't run a 4.39 at the combine. Plus you can't give him a pass on his jumps and then hammer Matthews for his. Watkins weight is nice but he's on the short side as well.

Watkins jumps are particularly concerning considering how much shorter he is than Matthews. Watkins is supposed to have other worldly explosive traits. I have a higher vert than Watkins. Lolololol

Right. Watkins ran a 4.43 40, not 4.39.

Yet, we're the one lacking common sense and knowledge of the the combine.

 

[EBF]

I use Draft Scout for all my measurements for the sake of consistency. They adjust the combine times and I take their word for it.

They have Watkins at 4.39, so there you have it.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I use Draft Scout for all my measurements for the sake of consistency. They adjust the combine times and I take their word for it.

They have Watkins at 4.39, so there you have it.

Happens. They have 40 combine listed in their notes, someone just typo'd it.

...choosing to let his 4.43 at the NFL Scouting Combine last month stand... (per nfldraftscout)

 

[EBF]

Not a typo. They adjust the official combine times. Most of their times skew a little faster.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Not a typo. They adjust the official combine times. Most of their times skew a little faster.

Its a draftscout writers typo.

 

[Milkman]

Lol oh boy.

 

[Khy]

Khy, you don't go talking about what Matthews did vs good opponents and then say you like OBJ more in the same post. Matthews has 3 years of good production for the record.

Man, I swear people don't read what I write and just read names.

My entire point is that college production for a WR is irrelevant. That's been my whole point for the past two pages. Somehow nobody seems to get that. The only reason I'm using stats this whole time is to show that theres literally zero correlation between good college stats and good nfl stats. Talent is what matters in the NFL. I think OBJ is significantly more talented than Matthews and in just as good of a system if not better to suit his strengths. I've also made it vocal that I'm not even remotely as high on Foles and Kelly as most are around these boards. The Giants also attempted 60 more passes last season and might pass even more this season, which means there are a lot more balls to go around for OBJ. I really couldn't care less about statistics in the NCAA though, it's a bunch of 23 year olds beating up on 12 year olds as far as I see it. The talent gaps are so enormous it's just silly. When I watch college tape I look for position mechanics, athletic ability and mental understanding of the game. When I look at Matthews on tape I see all three of these traits as middle of the road. Where as to me OBJ has a great to elite rating to me in all 3 categories.

And just for note: I felt the same way long before the Giants drafted him, although I was really hoping they would take him if Evans didn't fall to them.

The Giants passed 60 more times for about 500 less yards than the Eagles. I assume that's because the Giants had to throw because they were behind so much. The Eagles threw more when they wanted to which is why they were

more efficient throwing the ball.

Based on the bolded, do you think you might have a little rooting bias against the Eagles and their players? I will be the first to admit I want Matthews to do well because I am an Eagles fan.

Nope, absolutely not. He wasn't even in my Top 10 WRs coming into the draft, actually not even Top 15. His landing spot definitely shot him up my boards some but not to where his ADP is... meanwhile I had OBJ as #3 on my personal boards before and after the draft. I don't like Matthews because... I just don't like Matthews. Has absolutely zero to do with the Eagles as a landing spot, if anything I'm actually higher on him now that he is an Eagle than I was before the draft when he could've went anywhere. Still doesn't change my opinion that I think his floor and his ceiling aren't that far from each other. I think he'll be a solid WR3/4 most of his career and post maybe 1-2 WR2 seasons along the way. But that's his ceiling to me, I really don't see him as a guy who will ever flirt with WR1 numbers regardless of his QB, system or team.

Just curious - who were the 15 WRs you had ahead of him?

I'm not going to give you a whole list as a lot of guys in dynasty leagues I still have yet to draft in know my forum name. But here are a few I liked before and after the draft more than Matthews. These are mostly guys I've always seen Matthews going before that I think should go before Matthews instead: Cody Latimer, Martavis Bryant & Davante Adams. I think it's silly to be taking him before any of those guys. There's a few others whose ADPs are much much lower than these guys whom I'm not listing here but I'd rather have than Matthews. And as I said, these were 15 before the draft I liked more not after.

 

[Milkman]

I can see people making a case for taking Latimer and to a lesser extent Adams in front of Matthews. I wouldn't but I understand it's somewhat close but Martavis Bryant sucks ###. He's awful. Just because he is tall, can run fast, and can jump doesn't mean he can play the WR position. His hands are really bad. He can't catch the football.

 

[Khy]

I can see people making a case for taking Latimer and to a lesser extent Adams in front of Matthews. I wouldn't but I understand it's somewhat close but Martavis Bryant sucks ###. He's awful. Just because he is tall, can run fast, and can jump doesn't mean he can play the WR position. His hands are really bad. He can't catch the football.

Honestly, my thing with Bryant is he doesn't have to be a good route runner to be a big production guy in fantasy. His hands are a little inconsistent yeah, but there have been a lot of other guys who came out of school with the same marker and turned that around. Mainly, when you're that big and that fast, you get open just because of those two traits. He's like an even bigger Mike Wallace to me. And sure, Mike Wallace is no Calvin Johnson but I'll be damned if he didn't have a few WR1 seasons in Pittsburgh and I can see Bryant having the same type of career there... hopefully with less of an attitude about it.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I can see people making a case for taking Latimer and to a lesser extent Adams in front of Matthews. I wouldn't but I understand it's somewhat close but Martavis Bryant sucks ###. He's awful. Just because he is tall, can run fast, and can jump doesn't mean he can play the WR position. His hands are really bad. He can't catch the football.

He doesnt suck ###. He is super raw.

Part of his catch % issue is that all his passes are bombs, that adds a ton to the difficulty. He averaged 20 yards per catch.

Looking at the other deep guys, they say the same/similar thing about the drop issues (Mike Evans, Odell Beckham , Kelvin Benjamin) with all the top guys who get bombs and ypc.

 

[Milkman]

I don't think he's ever had more than six catches in a game. He declared for the draft because he was going to lose playing time as a "senior" to underclassmen. Yeah he's not good.

 

[Khy]

I don't think he's ever had more than six catches in a game. He declared for the draft because he was going to lose playing time as a "senior" to underclassmen. Yeah he's not good.

Source on that one?

Also, you clearly looked up his game logs and made up the arbitrary 6 reception total. He isn't a possession receiver, as I said... his comp to me is a bigger Mike Wallace. He'll catch 3-5 balls a game but those 3-5 balls can equate to the crazy lines we've seen Wallace get through his career. Stuff like 3/116/1 or 3/105/1 etc. typically a guy like him will see 6-8 targets in a game and be lucky to come down with 3 of them. But when the 3 of them add up to 100 yards and a TD I don't really care.

Mike Wallace was WR5 in 2010 with 60 receptions and WR9 in 2011 with 72 receptions. These are the kind of stat lines I can see Bryant getting.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I don't think he's ever had more than six catches in a game. He declared for the draft because he was going to lose playing time as a "senior" to underclassmen. Yeah he's not good.

He declared because he wanted to get his family out of where they were staying more or less. I saw it on an interview with him on YouTube.

 

[Khy]

I don't think he's ever had more than six catches in a game. He declared for the draft because he was going to lose playing time as a "senior" to underclassmen. Yeah he's not good.

He declared because he wanted to get his family out of where they were staying more or less. I saw it on an interview with him on YouTube.

Nah, he definitely did it cause he was going to be outplayed by underclassmen. And somehow he was a "senior" in quotes... as if it wouldn't have been his real senior year.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Just curious - who were the 15 WRs you had ahead of him?

I'm not going to give you a whole list as a lot of guys in dynasty leagues I still have yet to draft in know my forum name. But here are a few I liked before and after the draft more than Matthews. These are mostly guys I've always seen Matthews going before that I think should go before Matthews instead: Cody Latimer, Martavis Bryant & Davante Adams. I think it's silly to be taking him before any of those guys. There's a few others whose ADPs are much much lower than these guys whom I'm not listing here but I'd rather have than Matthews. And as I said, these were 15 before the draft I liked more not after.

When is your draft?

It's just sill to not have Latimer, Bryant and Adams ahaead of Matthews? I dont Mind the discussion but IMHO you most certainly are letting your rooting interests sway your opinion.

 

[Milkman]

I don't think he's ever had more than six catches in a game. He declared for the draft because he was going to lose playing time as a "senior" to underclassmen. Yeah he's not good.

Source on that one?

Also, you clearly looked up his game logs and made up the arbitrary 6 reception total. He isn't a possession receiver, as I said... his comp to me is a bigger Mike Wallace. He'll catch 3-5 balls a game but those 3-5 balls can equate to the crazy lines we've seen Wallace get through his career. Stuff like 3/116/1 or 3/105/1 etc. typically a guy like him will see 6-8 targets in a game and be lucky to come down with 3 of them. But when the 3 of them add up to 100 yards and a TD I don't really care.

Mike Wallace was WR5 in 2010 with 60 receptions and WR9 in 2011 with 72 receptions. These are the kind of stat lines I can see Bryant getting.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/profiles/martavis-bryant?id=2543572

A lean, long-limbed, rangy, outside-the-numbers, big-play receiver, Bryant declared for the draft early with underclassmen nipping at his playing time late in the season.

Yeah I'll pass guys.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I don't think he's ever had more than six catches in a game. He declared for the draft because he was going to lose playing time as a "senior" to underclassmen. Yeah he's not good.

He declared because he wanted to get his family out of where they were staying more or less. I saw it on an interview with him on YouTube.

Nah, he definitely did it cause he was going to be outplayed by underclassmen. And somehow he was a "senior" in quotes... as if it wouldn't have been his real senior year.

He was a guy I really wanted the Eagles to get and I watched, read and posted a lot of information on him on this board. He reminds me of a less physical Vincent Jackson but he's going to take some time to produce IMO

As far as Latimer and Adams there's just too many mouths to feed in front of them for them to be relevant any time soon. They'll have a big game here and there but they will be on your bench of WW when they do IMO

**ETA** Judging by your posts you also seem to put almost zero value into a person's situation.

 

[Khy]

Just curious - who were the 15 WRs you had ahead of him?

I'm not going to give you a whole list as a lot of guys in dynasty leagues I still have yet to draft in know my forum name. But here are a few I liked before and after the draft more than Matthews. These are mostly guys I've always seen Matthews going before that I think should go before Matthews instead: Cody Latimer, Martavis Bryant & Davante Adams. I think it's silly to be taking him before any of those guys. There's a few others whose ADPs are much much lower than these guys whom I'm not listing here but I'd rather have than Matthews. And as I said, these were 15 before the draft I liked more not after.

When is your draft?

It's just sill to not have Latimer, Bryant and Adams ahaead of Matthews? I dont Mind the discussion but IMHO you most certainly are letting your rooting interests sway your opinion.

Says the guy with the Eagles avatar to the guy with the Giants avatar.

In all seriousness, it has literally nothing to do with his Eagles affiliation. I just don't think the kids that good. That's all there is too it. I also don't think he has as clear of a path to production as people seem to think. I've seen some crazy lofty projections for this guy and I'm not buying it. The Eagles reception productions went DeSean Jackson (82 rec), LeSean McCoy (52 rec), Riley Cooper (47 rec), Jason Avant (38 rec), Zach Ertz (36 rec) and Bent Celek (32 rec). Everyone else had less than 10 on the team. So Jackson is gone, fine. Avant is gone, fine. So there are now 120 receptions that need to be filled from last season. Well, Maclin is back and Cooper will be the WR2 now. So it stands to reason that Maclin or Cooper will see 70-80 receptions and the other will see 50-60. Meaning I see the max receptions he's likely to see is somewhere in the 25-40 range. And that's assuming that Ertz doesn't have the big year I think he's going to have. My guess on the breakdown this season will be something like this:

Maclin: 76 receptions

Cooper: 60 receptions

Ertz: 60 receptions

McCoy: 50 receptions

Celek: 30 receptions

Matthews: 25 receptions

And then we'll see about next season, gain I don't think he has what it takes to be an every year WR2/3. You know those guys who we look at and say "They do nothing great, but everything well" I look at Matthews and think "He does nothing good and every mediocre". Again I could be wrong, I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. Nobody can predict rookies 100% of the time. Yes Maclin's contract is up this season, Cooper is signed through 2017. And there's still next years draft to take into account as well. Yeah, I can see the path to a starting gig there. What I can't get behind is that the Eagles aren't a pass friendly offense under Kelly. They were 27th in passing attempts last season and I see no reason for them to have more this year. 508 attempts at Foles 64% comp rating is only 309 receptions to go around. Which means I'm probably even being lofty with my reception estimates above. You're saying I'm not taking into account situation and I think that's the problem you're having... I am taking into account. I don't see how and in what world the Eagles are a good situation for any WR. Nobody on this team is going to have a DeSean Jackson 16.2ypr style season. Just won't happen. And Foles isn't going to have a 13.5:1 TD ratio as it's essentially the best ratio of all time. I think Foles will be lucky to throw 30 TDs this year and I think he's going to throw significantly more INTs (somewhere around 10) compared to last season.

I'm not a biased Giants fan, I simply think if I'm going to own someone on this team it'll be Jeremy Maclin or LeSean McCoy, possibly Zach Ertz as a late round sleeper and I'll let everyone else fight for the remainder of the team. And in dynasty, I'd rather have guys after Matthews ADP than Matthews at his ADP, so I'll trade down and take a Cody Latimer over him.

 

[dhockster]

I don't think he's ever had more than six catches in a game. He declared for the draft because he was going to lose playing time as a "senior" to underclassmen. Yeah he's not good.

He declared because he wanted to get his family out of where they were staying more or less. I saw it on an interview with him on YouTube.

Nah, he definitely did it cause he was going to be outplayed by underclassmen. And somehow he was a "senior" in quotes... as if it wouldn't have been his real senior year.

He was a guy I really wanted the Eagles to get and I watched, read and posted a lot of information on him on this board. He reminds me of a less physical Vincent Jackson but he's going to take some time to produce IMO

As far as Latimer and Adams there's just too many mouths to feed in front of them for them to be relevant any time soon. They'll have a big game here and there but they will be on your bench of WW when they do IMO

**ETA** Judging by your posts you also seem to put almost zero value into a person's situation.

Ding DIng Ding...... Great answer.

Without Desean Jackson this year, I think teams are going to TRY to stop the Eagles run more by playing 8 in the box. As a result, I think the Eagles are going to pass more and all the Eagles receivers will benefit.

Because the Eagles don't have a true number 1 receiver, Matthews will get plenty of targets. I think he is going to be very productive.

Back in the day, you always tried to grab one of the Oiler run and shoot receivers. Jeffries, Givens, Duncan, it really didn't matter because you knew they were all going to be productive. I think the Eagles under Kelly will be

pretty similar.

 

[dhockster]

Just curious - who were the 15 WRs you had ahead of him?

I'm not going to give you a whole list as a lot of guys in dynasty leagues I still have yet to draft in know my forum name. But here are a few I liked before and after the draft more than Matthews. These are mostly guys I've always seen Matthews going before that I think should go before Matthews instead: Cody Latimer, Martavis Bryant & Davante Adams. I think it's silly to be taking him before any of those guys. There's a few others whose ADPs are much much lower than these guys whom I'm not listing here but I'd rather have than Matthews. And as I said, these were 15 before the draft I liked more not after.

When is your draft?

It's just sill to not have Latimer, Bryant and Adams ahaead of Matthews? I dont Mind the discussion but IMHO you most certainly are letting your rooting interests sway your opinion.

Says the guy with the Eagles avatar to the guy with the Giants avatar.

In all seriousness, it has literally nothing to do with his Eagles affiliation. I just don't think the kids that good. That's all there is too it. I also don't think he has as clear of a path to production as people seem to think. I've seen some crazy lofty projections for this guy and I'm not buying it. The Eagles reception productions went DeSean Jackson (82 rec), LeSean McCoy (52 rec), Riley Cooper (47 rec), Jason Avant (38 rec), Zach Ertz (36 rec) and Bent Celek (32 rec). Everyone else had less than 10 on the team. So Jackson is gone, fine. Avant is gone, fine. So there are now 120 receptions that need to be filled from last season. Well, Maclin is back and Cooper will be the WR2 now. So it stands to reason that Maclin or Cooper will see 70-80 receptions and the other will see 50-60. Meaning I see the max receptions he's likely to see is somewhere in the 25-40 range. And that's assuming that Ertz doesn't have the big year I think he's going to have. My guess on the breakdown this season will be something like this:

Maclin: 76 receptions

Cooper: 60 receptions

Ertz: 60 receptions

McCoy: 50 receptions

Celek: 30 receptions

Matthews: 25 receptions

And then we'll see about next season, gain I don't think he has what it takes to be an every year WR2/3. You know those guys who we look at and say "They do nothing great, but everything well" I look at Matthews and think "He does nothing good and every mediocre". Again I could be wrong, I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. Nobody can predict rookies 100% of the time. Yes Maclin's contract is up this season, Cooper is signed through 2017. And there's still next years draft to take into account as well. Yeah, I can see the path to a starting gig there. What I can't get behind is that the Eagles aren't a pass friendly offense under Kelly. They were 27th in passing attempts last season and I see no reason for them to have more this year. 508 attempts at Foles 64% comp rating is only 309 receptions to go around. Which means I'm probably even being lofty with my reception estimates above. You're saying I'm not taking into account situation and I think that's the problem you're having... I am taking into account. I don't see how and in what world the Eagles are a good situation for any WR. Nobody on this team is going to have a DeSean Jackson 16.2ypr style season. Just won't happen. And Foles isn't going to have a 13.5:1 TD ratio as it's essentially the best ratio of all time. I think Foles will be lucky to throw 30 TDs this year and I think he's going to throw significantly more INTs (somewhere around 10) compared to last season.

I'm not a biased Giants fan, I simply think if I'm going to own someone on this team it'll be Jeremy Maclin or LeSean McCoy, possibly Zach Ertz as a late round sleeper and I'll let everyone else fight for the remainder of the team. And in dynasty, I'd rather have guys after Matthews ADP than Matthews at his ADP, so I'll trade down and take a Cody Latimer over him.

You do realize that Chip Kelly's offense is designed to take what the defense gives you. If they defend pass, you run. If they defend run, you pass. As I said above, with Jackson gone, the Eagles are not going to be able to stretch the field as much. As a result, I think other teams will try to defend the run more by playing tighter to the line. If this happens, Kelly will throw more. I agree with you that Foles and the Eagles will be less efficient in the passing game, but I think they will have more production from their passing game.

In a similar way, I see the Giants passing less this year because they won't be behind as much as they were last year. I say this taking into consideration that they hired a more passing friendly offensive coordinator.

 

[Khy]

Just curious - who were the 15 WRs you had ahead of him?

I'm not going to give you a whole list as a lot of guys in dynasty leagues I still have yet to draft in know my forum name. But here are a few I liked before and after the draft more than Matthews. These are mostly guys I've always seen Matthews going before that I think should go before Matthews instead: Cody Latimer, Martavis Bryant & Davante Adams. I think it's silly to be taking him before any of those guys. There's a few others whose ADPs are much much lower than these guys whom I'm not listing here but I'd rather have than Matthews. And as I said, these were 15 before the draft I liked more not after.

When is your draft?

It's just sill to not have Latimer, Bryant and Adams ahaead of Matthews? I dont Mind the discussion but IMHO you most certainly are letting your rooting interests sway your opinion.

Says the guy with the Eagles avatar to the guy with the Giants avatar.

In all seriousness, it has literally nothing to do with his Eagles affiliation. I just don't think the kids that good. That's all there is too it. I also don't think he has as clear of a path to production as people seem to think. I've seen some crazy lofty projections for this guy and I'm not buying it. The Eagles reception productions went DeSean Jackson (82 rec), LeSean McCoy (52 rec), Riley Cooper (47 rec), Jason Avant (38 rec), Zach Ertz (36 rec) and Bent Celek (32 rec). Everyone else had less than 10 on the team. So Jackson is gone, fine. Avant is gone, fine. So there are now 120 receptions that need to be filled from last season. Well, Maclin is back and Cooper will be the WR2 now. So it stands to reason that Maclin or Cooper will see 70-80 receptions and the other will see 50-60. Meaning I see the max receptions he's likely to see is somewhere in the 25-40 range. And that's assuming that Ertz doesn't have the big year I think he's going to have. My guess on the breakdown this season will be something like this:

Maclin: 76 receptions

Cooper: 60 receptions

Ertz: 60 receptions

McCoy: 50 receptions

Celek: 30 receptions

Matthews: 25 receptions

And then we'll see about next season, gain I don't think he has what it takes to be an every year WR2/3. You know those guys who we look at and say "They do nothing great, but everything well" I look at Matthews and think "He does nothing good and every mediocre". Again I could be wrong, I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. Nobody can predict rookies 100% of the time. Yes Maclin's contract is up this season, Cooper is signed through 2017. And there's still next years draft to take into account as well. Yeah, I can see the path to a starting gig there. What I can't get behind is that the Eagles aren't a pass friendly offense under Kelly. They were 27th in passing attempts last season and I see no reason for them to have more this year. 508 attempts at Foles 64% comp rating is only 309 receptions to go around. Which means I'm probably even being lofty with my reception estimates above. You're saying I'm not taking into account situation and I think that's the problem you're having... I am taking into account. I don't see how and in what world the Eagles are a good situation for any WR. Nobody on this team is going to have a DeSean Jackson 16.2ypr style season. Just won't happen. And Foles isn't going to have a 13.5:1 TD ratio as it's essentially the best ratio of all time. I think Foles will be lucky to throw 30 TDs this year and I think he's going to throw significantly more INTs (somewhere around 10) compared to last season.

I'm not a biased Giants fan, I simply think if I'm going to own someone on this team it'll be Jeremy Maclin or LeSean McCoy, possibly Zach Ertz as a late round sleeper and I'll let everyone else fight for the remainder of the team. And in dynasty, I'd rather have guys after Matthews ADP than Matthews at his ADP, so I'll trade down and take a Cody Latimer over him.

You do realize that Chip Kelly's offense is designed to take what the defense gives you. If they defend pass, you run. If they defend run, you pass. As I said above, with Jackson gone, the Eagles are not going to be able to stretch the field as much. As a result, I think other teams will try to defend the run more by playing tighter to the line. If this happens, Kelly will throw more. I agree with you that Foles and the Eagles will be less efficient in the passing game, but I think they will have more production from their passing game.

In a similar way, I see the Giants passing less this year because they won't be behind as much as they were last year. I say this taking into consideration that they hired a more passing friendly offensive coordinator.

No... I don't realize this because it's simply not the case? At Oregon his teams were all near the bottom in pass attempts and near the top in rushing attempts every year.

2007 - Passing Attempts - 61st :: Rushing Attempts - 6th :: # of Att: 413

2008 - Passing Attempts - 77th :: Rushing Attempts - 8th :: # of Att: 374

2009 - Passing Attempts - 89th :: Rushing Attempts - 18th :: # of Att: 338

2010 - Passing Attempts - 52nd :: Rushing Attempts - 8th :: # of Att: 395

2011 - Passing Attempts - 73rd :: Rushing Attempts - 6th :: # of Att: 386

2012 - Passing Attempts - 89th :: Rushing Attempts - 7th :: # of Att: 373

So no... he's really rather consistent in his tendencies. On average he was in the bottom half of passing attempts in college football year to year and he was usually in the top 10 of rushing attempts year to year. His offensive scheme lives and dies on the run. That didn't change last season in the NFL and it won't change anytime soon. Any coach can claim the shift based on what the defense is giving them, but they're usually lying. Some teams love to pass more than run and others love to run more than pass. Kelly is no exception. It's actually kind of funny, if you extrapolate his biggest passing attempt season (2007) at Oregon guess what number we get over the course of an NFL season? 508 attempts... kind of interesting how that's the exact same number I said above isn't it? Foles will be lucky to ever even creep into the 520's in attempts.

As for the Giants? They were one of the best defenses in football last season. They'll be better this year sure, but the reason they passed so much was the turnovers they had. They were one of the top teams in the league at defensive takeaways (tied for 7th with St Louis at 29) and yet they still had the one of the worst ratios in the league at -15. Only Houston was worse, but Houston's defense only had 11 defensive takeaways. It's highly unlikely they had 44 turnovers again this year by comparison Detroit was the next closest at 34 giveaways. In 2012 they only gave up the ball 21 times that's probably a more likely number this year. Hell even if they come in at the inbetween number of like 31 they'll be a lot more productive on offense than last season.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Just curious - who were the 15 WRs you had ahead of him?

I'm not going to give you a whole list as a lot of guys in dynasty leagues I still have yet to draft in know my forum name. But here are a few I liked before and after the draft more than Matthews. These are mostly guys I've always seen Matthews going before that I think should go before Matthews instead: Cody Latimer, Martavis Bryant & Davante Adams. I think it's silly to be taking him before any of those guys. There's a few others whose ADPs are much much lower than these guys whom I'm not listing here but I'd rather have than Matthews. And as I said, these were 15 before the draft I liked more not after.

When is your draft?

It's just sill to not have Latimer, Bryant and Adams ahaead of Matthews? I dont Mind the discussion but IMHO you most certainly are letting your rooting interests sway your opinion.

Says the guy with the Eagles avatar to the guy with the Giants avatar.

In all seriousness, it has literally nothing to do with his Eagles affiliation. I just don't think the kids that good. That's all there is too it. I also don't think he has as clear of a path to production as people seem to think. I've seen some crazy lofty projections for this guy and I'm not buying it. The Eagles reception productions went DeSean Jackson (82 rec), LeSean McCoy (52 rec), Riley Cooper (47 rec), Jason Avant (38 rec), Zach Ertz (36 rec) and Bent Celek (32 rec). Everyone else had less than 10 on the team. So Jackson is gone, fine. Avant is gone, fine. So there are now 120 receptions that need to be filled from last season. Well, Maclin is back and Cooper will be the WR2 now. So it stands to reason that Maclin or Cooper will see 70-80 receptions and the other will see 50-60. Meaning I see the max receptions he's likely to see is somewhere in the 25-40 range. And that's assuming that Ertz doesn't have the big year I think he's going to have. My guess on the breakdown this season will be something like this:

Maclin: 76 receptions

Cooper: 60 receptions

Ertz: 60 receptions

McCoy: 50 receptions

Celek: 30 receptions

Matthews: 25 receptions

And then we'll see about next season, gain I don't think he has what it takes to be an every year WR2/3. You know those guys who we look at and say "They do nothing great, but everything well" I look at Matthews and think "He does nothing good and every mediocre". Again I could be wrong, I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. Nobody can predict rookies 100% of the time. Yes Maclin's contract is up this season, Cooper is signed through 2017. And there's still next years draft to take into account as well. Yeah, I can see the path to a starting gig there. What I can't get behind is that the Eagles aren't a pass friendly offense under Kelly. They were 27th in passing attempts last season and I see no reason for them to have more this year. 508 attempts at Foles 64% comp rating is only 309 receptions to go around. Which means I'm probably even being lofty with my reception estimates above. You're saying I'm not taking into account situation and I think that's the problem you're having... I am taking into account. I don't see how and in what world the Eagles are a good situation for any WR. Nobody on this team is going to have a DeSean Jackson 16.2ypr style season. Just won't happen. And Foles isn't going to have a 13.5:1 TD ratio as it's essentially the best ratio of all time. I think Foles will be lucky to throw 30 TDs this year and I think he's going to throw significantly more INTs (somewhere around 10) compared to last season.

I'm not a biased Giants fan, I simply think if I'm going to own someone on this team it'll be Jeremy Maclin or LeSean McCoy, possibly Zach Ertz as a late round sleeper and I'll let everyone else fight for the remainder of the team. And in dynasty, I'd rather have guys after Matthews ADP than Matthews at his ADP, so I'll trade down and take a Cody Latimer over him.

I would like to also add that you dont seem like a forward thinker either. I don't mean this to be insulting since a ton of people seem to be doing the same thing with the Eagles or in fantasy in general. It's pretty much the same stuff over and over...last year this.....last year that....Foles wont do this....there's no Jackson....so lets use last years number to show future success. This isnt baseball. This was a rookie HC who came in with ONE offensive skill player that he selected and a back-up QB who didnt start a game or get meaningful snaps until week 5.

How many times do you see a QB with that type of success/ progress get scaled back or remain the same? Would you be shocked to see the eagles go from 27th in attemptes to top 5 or 10? The offense is designed to take what the defense is giving you...that helps a TON to have #25 back there and a progressing QB who just throws to who is open.

How does Matthews factor in? I'm sure you could go back to probably any Giants fan (or most fans) to see what they thought of Cooper just last year or a couple years ago for Maclin. We know right now that Matthews will be the slot WR and matched up against teams 3rd best DB, who he more then likely is bigger than, with a lot more space to work, will never see a double team with a QB who just throws to who is open and on a team that should run more plays then last year.

Who stands in his way for this year? Maclin, Cooper, Celek and Ertz. Sounds a little different than Cobb and Nelson or Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker, doesnt it?

How much SKILL did Marquis Colston have coming out of college? What he had was playing time, one a good offense, with no true #1 WR to take things from him. Am I saying he (Matthews) WILL be Colston? Right now I'm not, but could he be by season end? Yes.

Last year was last year...

**ETA**

I just saw that you went with Kelly's college numbers to rebuttle dhockster, unreal.

 

[Khy]

Just curious - who were the 15 WRs you had ahead of him?

I'm not going to give you a whole list as a lot of guys in dynasty leagues I still have yet to draft in know my forum name. But here are a few I liked before and after the draft more than Matthews. These are mostly guys I've always seen Matthews going before that I think should go before Matthews instead: Cody Latimer, Martavis Bryant & Davante Adams. I think it's silly to be taking him before any of those guys. There's a few others whose ADPs are much much lower than these guys whom I'm not listing here but I'd rather have than Matthews. And as I said, these were 15 before the draft I liked more not after.

When is your draft?

It's just sill to not have Latimer, Bryant and Adams ahaead of Matthews? I dont Mind the discussion but IMHO you most certainly are letting your rooting interests sway your opinion.

Says the guy with the Eagles avatar to the guy with the Giants avatar.

In all seriousness, it has literally nothing to do with his Eagles affiliation. I just don't think the kids that good. That's all there is too it. I also don't think he has as clear of a path to production as people seem to think. I've seen some crazy lofty projections for this guy and I'm not buying it. The Eagles reception productions went DeSean Jackson (82 rec), LeSean McCoy (52 rec), Riley Cooper (47 rec), Jason Avant (38 rec), Zach Ertz (36 rec) and Bent Celek (32 rec). Everyone else had less than 10 on the team. So Jackson is gone, fine. Avant is gone, fine. So there are now 120 receptions that need to be filled from last season. Well, Maclin is back and Cooper will be the WR2 now. So it stands to reason that Maclin or Cooper will see 70-80 receptions and the other will see 50-60. Meaning I see the max receptions he's likely to see is somewhere in the 25-40 range. And that's assuming that Ertz doesn't have the big year I think he's going to have. My guess on the breakdown this season will be something like this:

Maclin: 76 receptions

Cooper: 60 receptions

Ertz: 60 receptions

McCoy: 50 receptions

Celek: 30 receptions

Matthews: 25 receptions

And then we'll see about next season, gain I don't think he has what it takes to be an every year WR2/3. You know those guys who we look at and say "They do nothing great, but everything well" I look at Matthews and think "He does nothing good and every mediocre". Again I could be wrong, I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. Nobody can predict rookies 100% of the time. Yes Maclin's contract is up this season, Cooper is signed through 2017. And there's still next years draft to take into account as well. Yeah, I can see the path to a starting gig there. What I can't get behind is that the Eagles aren't a pass friendly offense under Kelly. They were 27th in passing attempts last season and I see no reason for them to have more this year. 508 attempts at Foles 64% comp rating is only 309 receptions to go around. Which means I'm probably even being lofty with my reception estimates above. You're saying I'm not taking into account situation and I think that's the problem you're having... I am taking into account. I don't see how and in what world the Eagles are a good situation for any WR. Nobody on this team is going to have a DeSean Jackson 16.2ypr style season. Just won't happen. And Foles isn't going to have a 13.5:1 TD ratio as it's essentially the best ratio of all time. I think Foles will be lucky to throw 30 TDs this year and I think he's going to throw significantly more INTs (somewhere around 10) compared to last season.

I'm not a biased Giants fan, I simply think if I'm going to own someone on this team it'll be Jeremy Maclin or LeSean McCoy, possibly Zach Ertz as a late round sleeper and I'll let everyone else fight for the remainder of the team. And in dynasty, I'd rather have guys after Matthews ADP than Matthews at his ADP, so I'll trade down and take a Cody Latimer over him.

I would like to also add that you dont seem like a forward thinker either. I don't mean this to be insulting since a ton of people seem to be doing the same thing with the Eagles or in fantasy in general. It's pretty much the same stuff over and over...last year this.....last year that....Foles wont do this....there's no Jackson....so lets use last years number to show future success. This isnt baseball. This was a rookie HC who came in with ONE offensive skill player that he selected and a back-up QB who didnt start a game or get meaningful snaps until week 5.

How many times do you see a QB with that type of success/ progress get scaled back or remain the same? Would you be shocked to see the eagles go from 27th in attemptes to top 5 or 10? The offense is designed to take what the defense is giving you...that helps a TON to have #25 back there and a progressing QB who just throws to who is open.

How does Matthews factor in? I'm sure you could go back to probably any Giants fan (or most fans) to see what they thought of Cooper just last year or a couple years ago for Maclin. We know right now that Matthews will be the slot WR and matched up against teams 3rd best DB, who he more then likely is bigger than, with a lot more space to work, will never see a double team with a QB who just throws to who is open and on a team that should run more plays then last year.

Who stands in his way for this year? Maclin, Cooper, Celek and Ertz. Sounds a little different than Cobb and Nelson or Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker, doesnt it?

How much SKILL did Marquis Colston have coming out of college? What he has was playing time, one a good offense, with no true #1 WR to take things from him. Am I saying he WILL be Colston? Right now I'm not, but could he be by season end? Yes.

Last year was last year...remember how the Jags were supposed to be the worst team in the NFL?

**ETA**

I just saw that you went with Kelly's college numbers to rebuttle dhockster, unreal.

Oh, I'm sorry... you're right trying to predict a coaches tendencies by using his ACTUAL numbers is unreal. I suppose I should just make up crap about how his offense is designed to take what the defense gives it (you know like every offense) and assume he'll throw the ball 600 times this year. Even though he's never ONCE eclipsed 510 attempts in a season, college or professionally in 7 years of coaching. Kelly saying his system shifts and changes to the defense is the same useless BS that Sean Payton shouts every off-season. But when push comes to shove they still throw the ball in the Top 3 every year and run the ball in the Bottom 5. Coaches don't change what they like, most are extremely stubborn in their ways. Kelly runs significantly more than he passes. To ignore his college numbers would just be ignorant.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Oh, I'm sorry... you're right trying to predict a coaches tendencies by using his ACTUAL numbers is unreal. I suppose I should just make up crap about how his offense is designed to take what the defense gives it (you know like every offense) and assume he'll throw the ball 600 times this year. watch some games too?!? Even though he's never ONCE eclipsed 510 attempts in a season, college or professionally in 7 years of coaching. Kelly saying his system shifts and changes to the defense is the same useless BS that Sean Payton shouts every off-season. But when push comes to shove they still throw the ball in the Top 3 every year and run the ball in the Bottom 5. Coaches don't change what they like, most are extremely stubborn in their ways. Kelly runs significantly more than he passes. To ignore his college numbers would just be ignorant.

Are you one of these guys that's still waiting for a QB that "can run the Kelly offense" too?

Ignorant could also be one looking at a totally different game (college versus the NFL) and trying to draw parrallels, no?

Holy smokes.

**ETA**

Had to fix something in there.

 

[Jrodicus]

Khy, you don't go talking about what Matthews did vs good opponents and then say you like OBJ more in the same post. Matthews has 3 years of good production for the record.

Man, I swear people don't read what I write and just read names.

My entire point is that college production for a WR is irrelevant. That's been my whole point for the past two pages. Somehow nobody seems to get that. The only reason I'm using stats this whole time is to show that theres literally zero correlation between good college stats and good nfl stats. Talent is what matters in the NFL. I think OBJ is significantly more talented than Matthews and in just as good of a system if not better to suit his strengths. I've also made it vocal that I'm not even remotely as high on Foles and Kelly as most are around these boards. The Giants also attempted 60 more passes last season and might pass even more this season, which means there are a lot more balls to go around for OBJ. I really couldn't care less about statistics in the NCAA though, it's a bunch of 23 year olds beating up on 12 year olds as far as I see it. The talent gaps are so enormous it's just silly. When I watch college tape I look for position mechanics, athletic ability and mental understanding of the game. When I look at Matthews on tape I see all three of these traits as middle of the road. Where as to me OBJ has a great to elite rating to me in all 3 categories.

And just for note: I felt the same way long before the Giants drafted him, although I was really hoping they would take him if Evans didn't fall to them.

The Giants passed 60 more times for about 500 less yards than the Eagles. I assume that's because the Giants had to throw because they were behind so much. The Eagles threw more when they wanted to which is why they were

more efficient throwing the ball.

Based on the bolded, do you think you might have a little rooting bias against the Eagles and their players? I will be the first to admit I want Matthews to do well because I am an Eagles fan.

Nope, absolutely not. He wasn't even in my Top 10 WRs coming into the draft, actually not even Top 15. His landing spot definitely shot him up my boards some but not to where his ADP is... meanwhile I had OBJ as #3 on my personal boards before and after the draft. I don't like Matthews because... I just don't like Matthews. Has absolutely zero to do with the Eagles as a landing spot, if anything I'm actually higher on him now that he is an Eagle than I was before the draft when he could've went anywhere. Still doesn't change my opinion that I think his floor and his ceiling aren't that far from each other. I think he'll be a solid WR3/4 most of his career and post maybe 1-2 WR2 seasons along the way. But that's his ceiling to me, I really don't see him as a guy who will ever flirt with WR1 numbers regardless of his QB, system or team.

Just curious - who were the 15 WRs you had ahead of him?

I'm not going to give you a whole list as a lot of guys in dynasty leagues I still have yet to draft in know my forum name. But here are a few I liked before and after the draft more than Matthews. These are mostly guys I've always seen Matthews going before that I think should go before Matthews instead: Cody Latimer, Martavis Bryant & Davante Adams. I think it's silly to be taking him before any of those guys. There's a few others whose ADPs are much much lower than these guys whom I'm not listing here but I'd rather have than Matthews. And as I said, these were 15 before the draft I liked more not after.

Fair enough. But, since this was your pre-draft ranking, not your current ranking, I don't know if you'd have a lot to worry about (if your rankings have changed dramatically as you have insinuted).

I can see Latimer and Adams. A lot of people are in love with Bryant so I can understand that as well. But not even being in your top 15 pre-draft?

Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Lee, OBJ, Adams, Robinson, Benjamin, Moncrief, Latimer...I can see having those 10 guys ahead of him.

You like Bryant...ok, that makes 11. But 4 more guys?

Landry, Richardson, and Abbrederis? There's 3 more guys that were getting hype. But ahead of Matthews? I like Landry, but I'm not taking him ahead of Matthews.

Assuming you had those 3 guys, that still leaves at least 1 more ahead of Matthews. Herron? Janis? TJ Jones?

I get not wanting to follow the herd, but not even in your top 15? Holy cow. The lowest I saw him pre-draft by any "expert" was WR12. You may have literally been lower on Matthews than anyone else in the fantasy football community.

 

[dhockster]

You do realize that Chip Kelly's offense is designed to take what the defense gives you. If they defend pass, you run. If they defend run, you pass. As I said above, with Jackson gone, the Eagles are not going to be able to stretch the field as much. As a result, I think other teams will try to defend the run more by playing tighter to the line. If this happens, Kelly will throw more. I agree with you that Foles and the Eagles will be less efficient in the passing game, but I think they will have more production from their passing game.

In a similar way, I see the Giants passing less this year because they won't be behind as much as they were last year. I say this taking into consideration that they hired a more passing friendly offensive coordinator.

No... I don't realize this because it's simply not the case? At Oregon his teams were all near the bottom in pass attempts and near the top in rushing attempts every year.

2007 - Passing Attempts - 61st :: Rushing Attempts - 6th :: # of Att: 413

2008 - Passing Attempts - 77th :: Rushing Attempts - 8th :: # of Att: 374

2009 - Passing Attempts - 89th :: Rushing Attempts - 18th :: # of Att: 338

2010 - Passing Attempts - 52nd :: Rushing Attempts - 8th :: # of Att: 395

2011 - Passing Attempts - 73rd :: Rushing Attempts - 6th :: # of Att: 386

2012 - Passing Attempts - 89th :: Rushing Attempts - 7th :: # of Att: 373

So no... he's really rather consistent in his tendencies. On average he was in the bottom half of passing attempts in college football year to year and he was usually in the top 10 of rushing attempts year to year. His offensive scheme lives and dies on the run. That didn't change last season in the NFL and it won't change anytime soon. Any coach can claim the shift based on what the defense is giving them, but they're usually lying. Some teams love to pass more than run and others love to run more than pass. Kelly is no exception. It's actually kind of funny, if you extrapolate his biggest passing attempt season (2007) at Oregon guess what number we get over the course of an NFL season? 508 attempts... kind of interesting how that's the exact same number I said above isn't it? Foles will be lucky to ever even creep into the 520's in attempts.

As for the Giants? They were one of the best defenses in football last season. They'll be better this year sure, but the reason they passed so much was the turnovers they had. They were one of the top teams in the league at defensive takeaways (tied for 7th with St Louis at 29) and yet they still had the one of the worst ratios in the league at -15. Only Houston was worse, but Houston's defense only had 11 defensive takeaways. It's highly unlikely they had 44 turnovers again this year by comparison Detroit was the next closest at 34 giveaways. In 2012 they only gave up the ball 21 times that's probably a more likely number this year. Hell even if they come in at the inbetween number of like 31 they'll be a lot more productive on offense than last season.

I stand corrected.... Great research.

Just for my information, I went back and looked at where Kelly finished in yards/attempt in passing:

2007: 62nd

2008: 53rd

2009: 74th

2010: 26th

2011: 24th

2012: 43rd

2013: (with Eagles) 2nd (behind Broncos)

So even though he passes less then he runs, he is generally efficient when he passes.

Based on that, Eagles receivers are probably slightly more desirable in Non-PPR leagues than they are in PPR leagues

 

[Khy]

Oh, I'm sorry... you're right trying to predict a coaches tendencies by using his ACTUAL numbers is unreal. I suppose I should just make up crap about how his offense is designed to take what the defense gives it (you know like every offense) and assume he'll throw the ball 600 times this year. watch some games too?!? Even though he's never ONCE eclipsed 510 attempts in a season, college or professionally in 7 years of coaching. Kelly saying his system shifts and changes to the defense is the same useless BS that Sean Payton shouts every off-season. But when push comes to shove they still throw the ball in the Top 3 every year and run the ball in the Bottom 5. Coaches don't change what they like, most are extremely stubborn in their ways. Kelly runs significantly more than he passes. To ignore his college numbers would just be ignorant.

Are you one of these guys that's still waiting for a QB that "can run the Kelly offense" too?

Ignorant could also be one looking at a totally different game (college versus the NFL) and trying to draw parrallels, no?

Holy smokes.

**ETA**

Had to fix something in there.

Chip is a 2nd year NFL coach, you have no choice but to look at his tendencies in college where the majority of his resume is and try to draw conclusions from that. Is it possible he lets Foles take 550-600 attempts this season? Sure. But his history shows up you'll be lucky if Foles eclipsed 510 attempts as it'd be something a Chip Kelly QB hasn't done since he became the OC in Oregon back in 2007. So we can make 'guesses' based on literally nothing but thin air, faeries and dreams. Or you know, we can make educated guesses based on actual numbers that show Chip's clear tendencies to have a significantly higher runass ratio than you're saying he will going forward.

This isn't about me talking about "last year" this and "last year" that. It's simply fact, since 2007 when Kelly landed a position to make decisions like the runass ratio of his team, his QB has never exceeded 510 attempts. Which in the NFL is going to be in the bottom 4th of the league every year. And until a Kelly QB does so, it's just a random rumor with zero leg to stand on. Similar to the Andre Johnson to NE rumors.

 

[ShaHBucks]

No... I don't realize this because it's simply not the case? At Oregon his teams were all near the bottom in pass attempts and near the top in rushing attempts every year.

2007 - Passing Attempts - 61st :: Rushing Attempts - 6th :: # of Att: 413

2008 - Passing Attempts - 77th :: Rushing Attempts - 8th :: # of Att: 374

2009 - Passing Attempts - 89th :: Rushing Attempts - 18th :: # of Att: 338

2010 - Passing Attempts - 52nd :: Rushing Attempts - 8th :: # of Att: 395

2011 - Passing Attempts - 73rd :: Rushing Attempts - 6th :: # of Att: 386

2012 - Passing Attempts - 89th :: Rushing Attempts - 7th :: # of Att: 373

So no... he's really rather consistent in his tendencies. On average he was in the bottom half of passing attempts in college football year to year and he was usually in the top 10 of rushing attempts year to year. His offensive scheme lives and dies on the run. That didn't change last season in the NFL and it won't change anytime soon. Any coach can claim the shift based on what the defense is giving them, but they're usually lying. Some teams love to pass more than run and others love to run more than pass. Kelly is no exception. It's actually kind of funny, if you extrapolate his biggest passing attempt season (2007) at Oregon guess what number we get over the course of an NFL season? 508 attempts... kind of interesting how that's the exact same number I said above isn't it? Foles will be lucky to ever even creep into the 520's in attempts.

Most of those games in college were blowouts where Oregon would just run out the clock. Chip is actually the guy who practices his theory. I watched/studied this offense as much as I could and don't think Chip has any tendencies. That's the beauty of a option offense.

I agree that Matthews has competition right now. I've used my higher picks on Sankey and Cooks because they are in spots to take of early statistically. In the long run Matthews is more talented than Cooper and Maclin. Just look at the receivers that played ahead of Alshon his rookie season. It happens. But in the end talent wins out (you don't think he's a talent so that really means nothing). I think there will be a chance to buy Matthews after this season (though I thing missing the boat is possible too) so I'm not chasing him as much as it'll seem. Almost all of my teams luckly have Foles/Cooper so I'd rather diversify anyway.

I wouldn't look too much into the contracts. Maclin is on a one year deal and Cooper can easily be cut.

Matthew does seen to be booked in the slot to start the season. I did a post in Riley Cooper's thread outlining the target distribution in games Foles played majority of the snaps. To be brief, he spread the ball last season like elite QBs have the tendency too. I can't recall off hand but Avant seen somewhere between 4-6 targets a game in that span. He was just horrible from a production standpoint. Whoever is open will get the rock. It's a equal opportunity thing.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Oh, I'm sorry... you're right trying to predict a coaches tendencies by using his ACTUAL numbers is unreal. I suppose I should just make up crap about how his offense is designed to take what the defense gives it (you know like every offense) and assume he'll throw the ball 600 times this year. watch some games too?!? Even though he's never ONCE eclipsed 510 attempts in a season, college or professionally in 7 years of coaching. Kelly saying his system shifts and changes to the defense is the same useless BS that Sean Payton shouts every off-season. But when push comes to shove they still throw the ball in the Top 3 every year and run the ball in the Bottom 5. Coaches don't change what they like, most are extremely stubborn in their ways. Kelly runs significantly more than he passes. To ignore his college numbers would just be ignorant.

Are you one of these guys that's still waiting for a QB that "can run the Kelly offense" too?

Ignorant could also be one looking at a totally different game (college versus the NFL) and trying to draw parrallels, no?

Holy smokes.

**ETA**

Had to fix something in there.

Chip is a 2nd year NFL coach, you have no choice but to look at his tendencies in college where the majority of his resume is and try to draw conclusions from that. Is it possible he lets Foles take 550-600 attempts this season? Sure. But his history shows up you'll be lucky if Foles eclipsed 510 attempts as it'd be something a Chip Kelly QB hasn't done since he became the OC in Oregon back in 2007. So we can make 'guesses' based on literally nothing but thin air, faeries and dreams. Or you know, we can make educated guesses based on actual numbers that show Chip's clear tendencies to have a significantly higher runass ratio than you're saying he will going forward.

This isn't about me talking about "last year" this and "last year" that. It's simply fact, since 2007 when Kelly landed a position to make decisions like the runass ratio of his team, his QB has never exceeded 510 attempts. Which in the NFL is going to be in the bottom 4th of the league every year. And until a Kelly QB does so, it's just a random rumor with zero leg to stand on. Similar to the Andre Johnson to NE rumors.

His history suggests he also wants a running QB as well, no? You call them educated guesses but you leave out MANY key parts.

You lean WAY too heavy on previous years.

You also don't factor in a players situation at all.

Both (IMHO) are VERY big FFB no-no's

 

[Khy]

Oh, I'm sorry... you're right trying to predict a coaches tendencies by using his ACTUAL numbers is unreal. I suppose I should just make up crap about how his offense is designed to take what the defense gives it (you know like every offense) and assume he'll throw the ball 600 times this year. watch some games too?!? Even though he's never ONCE eclipsed 510 attempts in a season, college or professionally in 7 years of coaching. Kelly saying his system shifts and changes to the defense is the same useless BS that Sean Payton shouts every off-season. But when push comes to shove they still throw the ball in the Top 3 every year and run the ball in the Bottom 5. Coaches don't change what they like, most are extremely stubborn in their ways. Kelly runs significantly more than he passes. To ignore his college numbers would just be ignorant.

Are you one of these guys that's still waiting for a QB that "can run the Kelly offense" too?

Ignorant could also be one looking at a totally different game (college versus the NFL) and trying to draw parrallels, no?

Holy smokes.

**ETA**

Had to fix something in there.

Chip is a 2nd year NFL coach, you have no choice but to look at his tendencies in college where the majority of his resume is and try to draw conclusions from that. Is it possible he lets Foles take 550-600 attempts this season? Sure. But his history shows up you'll be lucky if Foles eclipsed 510 attempts as it'd be something a Chip Kelly QB hasn't done since he became the OC in Oregon back in 2007. So we can make 'guesses' based on literally nothing but thin air, faeries and dreams. Or you know, we can make educated guesses based on actual numbers that show Chip's clear tendencies to have a significantly higher runass ratio than you're saying he will going forward.

This isn't about me talking about "last year" this and "last year" that. It's simply fact, since 2007 when Kelly landed a position to make decisions like the runass ratio of his team, his QB has never exceeded 510 attempts. Which in the NFL is going to be in the bottom 4th of the league every year. And until a Kelly QB does so, it's just a random rumor with zero leg to stand on. Similar to the Andre Johnson to NE rumors.

His history suggests he also wants a running QB as well, no? You call them educated guesses but you leave out MANY key parts.

You lean WAY too heavy on previous years.

You also don't factor in a players situation at all.

Both (IMHO) are VERY big FFB no-no's

I've explained several times the reason why I don't think Matthews is in nearly as good a situation as you do. Whether I'm wrong or right, continually ignoring what I'm saying and telling me I'm not factoring situation at all doesn't help the conversation. But I'll say it again, I actually weigh situation a ton but.... I do not think that Matthews has the talent to take advantage of a situation where I see him only getting 20-25 receptions this season. And next season is hard to predict as if Maclin has a good year they'll resign him again. And even if he doesn't and Matthews get the #2 job behind Cooper next year? I still don't think he's that good of a player and he'll be at best a WR3 behind Cooper in 2015.

And yes, I'm weighing heavily on previous years. Again, I don't know how many times I can say that Kelly has never had a QB pass a lot in a season. It's not even like there's one interesting outlier where Kelly had a college QB throw the for 38 attempts per game or anything. The most a QB in his system every threw for is 31.75. I mean jesus, Foles only averaged 28.36 attempts per game in his starts last season. Where are you still pulling this crazy thing out of your head that he'll average more than 32 attempts a game? He simply won't he had 2 games where he threw for over 32 attempts, one he passed for 34 attempts the other 48. Past that his other starts: 25, 31, 29, 28, 26, 22, 26, 26. Those won't lead to a bunch of production. Sorry it just won't, tell me I'm leaning to heavily on previous years all you want. It still doesn't make you right.

 

[WagesOfZin]

regardless of what happens, i think it's blatantly obvious this thread is going to be chock full of "SEE!?!??!!" for a long time to come.

 

[Khy]

regardless of what happens, i think it's blatantly obvious this thread is going to be chock full of "SEE!?!??!!" for a long time to come.

You mean like every thread on these forums about a specific player? There's only two sides and one has to be right

 

[ShaHBucks]

Riley Cooper being pimped! You guys know I somewhere smiling.