TE Jordan Matthews, CAR (2 Viewers)

[Milkman]

Lol well then he didn't struggle much did he? I mean his numbers on the field are elite. Jesus the naysayers are shook i tell ya.

 

[Brewtown]

Wake-Up Call: Why Matthews Fits the Mold

You may have heard the story by now about how Jordan Matthews broke down four Eagles’ game tapes before heading to Philly for his official visit. Chip Kelly said he was armed with a notebook for his interview with the coaches “and came in with questions for us.” Equally impressive to Kelly was the receiver’s recall when some of his own tape came on.

“Jordan Matthews could tell you the play that was being run before he ran it. We’d have the tape and he’d look at the screen and say, That is the Ole Miss game. I remember this. It’s 3rd and 13, here’s the play call. I ran a dig. You hit play and that’s exactly what happened,” he said.

Howie Roseman offered this anecdote: At the Senior Bowl, Matthews was actually requesting film on the guys that he was going against, and would get up before dawn to study it.

"This guy, the level of determination he has, his work ethic, it's going to rub off on everyone. He can do anything he wants as a person," said Roseman. "You leave meeting him, and he's as impressive a guy as I've ever met, really."

There was a wealth of talent at receiver in the 2014 draft class. Some say it was the deepest group ever. Choosing from such a stocked pool was largely about taste and fit. Kelly, as we're learning, puts a heavy emphasis on character make-up and intelligence. Matthews, a team captain who graduated from Vanderbilt with an economics degree in three-and-a-half years, appears to check those boxes.

On the field, the big attraction (other than the fact that, you know, he is the SEC's all-time leading receiver) was Matthews' ability to beat man coverage. Kelly explained that defenses play a ton of man against them, largely because that's the best way to get lined up quickly in response to the up-tempo. It was a priority, then, to find receivers that could excel against that defense.

"The one thing he does is catch the ball in traffic," said Kelly of Matthews. "He made an unbelievable amount of contested catches. You know, he's got such a wing span and will go up and get it, and can play both inside and outside."

The plan is to start Matthews off inside. The head coach likes the idea of having a 6-3, 217-pound wideout working in the slot.

"In a league where sometimes people put smaller guys in the slot, we wanted to put a bigger guy in there," said Kelly. "I think that match‑up, if you're a smaller DB is going to play in the slot and have to match up with a 217 pound guy that can run 4.46."

 

[Jrodicus]

People who repeated the 'drops' problem were just echoing what was written about him early in the scouting phase. Anyone who watched cutups of the kid knew his hands were not a concern, but an asset. Lazy scouting led to the Eagles getting a steal.

Still want to temper '14 expectations, '15+ is when the magic happens IMO.

His hands were bad compared to the rest of the WR class though... It's not lazy scouting, it's fact. What's lazy is just seeing what you want to see and continuously ignoring the facts.

via Peshek's WR Metrics

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play.

Drop%: Cooks - 4.69% // Matthews - 7.69% // Landry - 2.50% // Beckham - 6.45% // Robinson - 5.43% // Watkins - 4.49% // Evans - 4.29%

- There’s not a whole lot of bad to see in this group. Anything below 6 or 7% is just about normal for NCAA wide receivers.

- The biggest player to watch out for here is Jordan Matthews who has a slightly above-average drop rate of 7.69%. There were a few 50/50 drops that I hedged on Matthews’ side for. He could realistically be anywhere between 7-11%. If you’re watching Matthews intently, keep an eye on his hands.

- I only have 2 dropped balls for Landry all season, that’s incredible.

Seems like you left out a few people. From the same source:

Drop %: Benjamin - 9.68% // Lee - 12.31%

It's just a tad convenient that you listed all of the other players sampled with a lower drop rate but somehow didn't include the 2 guys with much higher drop rates. Interesting...

 

[werdnoynek]

People who repeated the 'drops' problem were just echoing what was written about him early in the scouting phase. Anyone who watched cutups of the kid knew his hands were not a concern, but an asset. Lazy scouting led to the Eagles getting a steal.

Still want to temper '14 expectations, '15+ is when the magic happens IMO.

His hands were bad compared to the rest of the WR class though... It's not lazy scouting, it's fact. What's lazy is just seeing what you want to see and continuously ignoring the facts.

via Peshek's WR Metrics

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play.

Drop%: Cooks - 4.69% // Matthews - 7.69% // Landry - 2.50% // Beckham - 6.45% // Robinson - 5.43% // Watkins - 4.49% // Evans - 4.29%

- There’s not a whole lot of bad to see in this group. Anything below 6 or 7% is just about normal for NCAA wide receivers.

- The biggest player to watch out for here is Jordan Matthews who has a slightly above-average drop rate of 7.69%. There were a few 50/50 drops that I hedged on Matthews’ side for. He could realistically be anywhere between 7-11%. If you’re watching Matthews intently, keep an eye on his hands.

- I only have 2 dropped balls for Landry all season, that’s incredible.

Seems like you left out a few people. From the same source:

Drop %: Benjamin - 9.68% // Lee - 12.31%

It's just a tad convenient that you listed all of the other players sampled with a lower drop rate but somehow didn't include the 2 guys with much higher drop rates. Interesting...

Thank you. I just threw in the other top two guys for comparison's sake and didn't really think twice about it.

Does Matthews drop rate change? It's still bad compared to the rest of the class... Peshek himself said it could be closer to 11%.

 

[Brewtown]

Does anyone recall who started this thread?

I believe that he also wrote an article...

 

[Jrodicus]

People who repeated the 'drops' problem were just echoing what was written about him early in the scouting phase. Anyone who watched cutups of the kid knew his hands were not a concern, but an asset. Lazy scouting led to the Eagles getting a steal.

Still want to temper '14 expectations, '15+ is when the magic happens IMO.

His hands were bad compared to the rest of the WR class though... It's not lazy scouting, it's fact. What's lazy is just seeing what you want to see and continuously ignoring the facts.

via Peshek's WR Metrics

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play.

Drop%: Cooks - 4.69% // Matthews - 7.69% // Landry - 2.50% // Beckham - 6.45% // Robinson - 5.43% // Watkins - 4.49% // Evans - 4.29%

- There’s not a whole lot of bad to see in this group. Anything below 6 or 7% is just about normal for NCAA wide receivers.

- The biggest player to watch out for here is Jordan Matthews who has a slightly above-average drop rate of 7.69%. There were a few 50/50 drops that I hedged on Matthews’ side for. He could realistically be anywhere between 7-11%. If you’re watching Matthews intently, keep an eye on his hands.

- I only have 2 dropped balls for Landry all season, that’s incredible.

Seems like you left out a few people. From the same source:

Drop %: Benjamin - 9.68% // Lee - 12.31%

It's just a tad convenient that you listed all of the other players sampled with a lower drop rate but somehow didn't include the 2 guys with much higher drop rates. Interesting...

Thank you. I just threw in the other top two guys for comparison's sake and didn't really think twice about it.

Does Matthews drop rate change? It's still bad compared to the rest of the class... Peshek himself said it could be closer to 11%.

Based on Peshek's analysis of drops, there were 6 WRs with a lower drop rate and 2 with a higher drop rate. That's not the rest of the class; that just puts him 7th out of 9 guys based on one person's analysis. How about Adams, Latimer, Moncrief, Bryant or the 21 WRs drafted that aren't on this list?

You're making an assertation, "It's still bad compared to the rest of the class," that is a huge jump considering that less than 1/3 of the WR draft class was even analyzed.

Peshek saying that Matthews' drop rate could be higher is also an admission of the subjectivity of this stat; ANY of the WRs COULD have a higher drop rate if someone else graded them.

Sure, Cooks, Evans, Watkins, and OBJ have a lower drop rate based on his analysis; they also were all 1st round draft picks. So what? Show us some stats about drop rates for guys taken in rounds 3-7 and maybe then you can honestly make the statment that Matthews hands are "bad compared to the rest of the class."

 

[Jrodicus]

Does anyone recall who started this thread?

I believe that he also wrote an article...

Yeah....

POSITIVES

Hands and Ball Skills: Matthews gets his head around early in the play and he can adjust to poorly thrown balls behind him with good body control. He’s a good natural hands catcher, and he’ll make catches at extension and by climbing the ladder. He has a very good catch radius. Matthews has made more than one catch with one hand while he’s being interfered with downfield. He can track the ball over his shoulder with ease. Getting his head around early in his routes creates quick, natural reactions on short and intermediate passes that are usually successful. It is important to point out at the Matthews is not immune from drops. High balls will sometimes glance off of his hands with disastrous results: (video)

 

[Amused to Death]

Didn't Terrell Owens usually have a high drop rate? He had a nice career.

We’re going to start off by looking at the wide receivers whose primary job is to catch the ball and make plays. So let’s see which wideouts have done the best (and worst) job in this regard over the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%

 

[werdnoynek]

Didn't Terrell Owens usually have a high drop rate? He had a nice career.

We’re going to start off by looking at the wide receivers whose primary job is to catch the ball and make plays. So let’s see which wideouts have done the best (and worst) job in this regard over the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%

Poor hands are poor hands. Are you trying to saying Matthews' poor hands mean he'll have a successful career?

I'm confused.

 

[dhockster]

Didn't Terrell Owens usually have a high drop rate? He had a nice career.

We’re going to start off by looking at the wide receivers whose primary job is to catch the ball and make plays. So let’s see which wideouts have done the best (and worst) job in this regard over the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%

Great post.

3 players on the worst drop rates are potential hall of famers: Owens, Moss, Marshall

3 players on the best drop rates are potential hall of famers: Fitzgerald, Wayne, Bouldin

Drop rates don't seem to be an indicator of whether you are a great receiver or not.

 

[dhockster]

People who repeated the 'drops' problem were just echoing what was written about him early in the scouting phase. Anyone who watched cutups of the kid knew his hands were not a concern, but an asset. Lazy scouting led to the Eagles getting a steal.

Still want to temper '14 expectations, '15+ is when the magic happens IMO.

His hands were bad compared to the rest of the WR class though... It's not lazy scouting, it's fact. What's lazy is just seeing what you want to see and continuously ignoring the facts.

via Peshek's WR Metrics

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play.

Drop%: Cooks - 4.69% // Matthews - 7.69% // Landry - 2.50% // Beckham - 6.45% // Robinson - 5.43% // Watkins - 4.49% // Evans - 4.29%

- There’s not a whole lot of bad to see in this group. Anything below 6 or 7% is just about normal for NCAA wide receivers.

- The biggest player to watch out for here is Jordan Matthews who has a slightly above-average drop rate of 7.69%. There were a few 50/50 drops that I hedged on Matthews’ side for. He could realistically be anywhere between 7-11%. If you’re watching Matthews intently, keep an eye on his hands.

- I only have 2 dropped balls for Landry all season, that’s incredible.

It is interesting what Peshak says in his summary Paragraph: "So much of a WR’s numbers depend on the quarterback, so we can’t always use stats as effectively as we do for other positions".

My guess is Vanderbilt's QB does not outshine all the other WR's QBs. Something to keep in mind.

 

[werdnoynek]

Didn't Terrell Owens usually have a high drop rate? He had a nice career.

We’re going to start off by looking at the wide receivers whose primary job is to catch the ball and make plays. So let’s see which wideouts have done the best (and worst) job in this regard over the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%

Great post.

3 players on the worst drop rates are potential hall of famers: Owens, Moss, Marshall

3 players on the best drop rates are potential hall of famers: Fitzgerald, Wayne, Bouldin

Drop rates don't seem to be an indicator of whether you are a great receiver or not.

Agreed...

All I'm saying is that Matthews' hands are not (in any way, shape, or form) elite. Statistics confirm this.

There are people in here who are so infatuated with Matthews that they continue to just look past some of these stats and continually hyperbolize his "gifts".

I'm not disputing there are some great receivers who have been successful with a high drop rate.

 

[Amused to Death]

Didn't Terrell Owens usually have a high drop rate? He had a nice career.

We’re going to start off by looking at the wide receivers whose primary job is to catch the ball and make plays. So let’s see which wideouts have done the best (and worst) job in this regard over the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%

Poor hands are poor hands. Are you trying to saying Matthews' poor hands mean he'll have a successful career?

I'm confused.

I'm saying a drop rate of 8% or so doesn't spell doom. Some of the best recent WRs have had far worse drop rates.

 

[werdnoynek]

People who repeated the 'drops' problem were just echoing what was written about him early in the scouting phase. Anyone who watched cutups of the kid knew his hands were not a concern, but an asset. Lazy scouting led to the Eagles getting a steal.

Still want to temper '14 expectations, '15+ is when the magic happens IMO.

His hands were bad compared to the rest of the WR class though... It's not lazy scouting, it's fact. What's lazy is just seeing what you want to see and continuously ignoring the facts.

via Peshek's WR Metrics

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play.

Drop%: Cooks - 4.69% // Matthews - 7.69% // Landry - 2.50% // Beckham - 6.45% // Robinson - 5.43% // Watkins - 4.49% // Evans - 4.29%

- There’s not a whole lot of bad to see in this group. Anything below 6 or 7% is just about normal for NCAA wide receivers.

- The biggest player to watch out for here is Jordan Matthews who has a slightly above-average drop rate of 7.69%. There were a few 50/50 drops that I hedged on Matthews’ side for. He could realistically be anywhere between 7-11%. If you’re watching Matthews intently, keep an eye on his hands.

- I only have 2 dropped balls for Landry all season, that’s incredible.

It is interesting what Peshak says in his summary Paragraph: "So much of a WR’s numbers depend on the quarterback, so we can’t always use stats as effectively as we do for other positions".

My guess is Vanderbilt's QB does not outshine all the other WR's QBs. Something to keep in mind.

Drops are drops though. If the QB gets the ball close to an elite receiver, they're going to catch it.

ETA: Most of the time.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

People who repeated the 'drops' problem were just echoing what was written about him early in the scouting phase. Anyone who watched cutups of the kid knew his hands were not a concern, but an asset. Lazy scouting led to the Eagles getting a steal.

Still want to temper '14 expectations, '15+ is when the magic happens IMO.

His hands were bad compared to the rest of the WR class though... It's not lazy scouting, it's fact. What's lazy is just seeing what you want to see and continuously ignoring the facts.

via Peshek's WR Metrics

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play.

Drop%: Cooks - 4.69% // Matthews - 7.69% // Landry - 2.50% // Beckham - 6.45% // Robinson - 5.43% // Watkins - 4.49% // Evans - 4.29%

- There’s not a whole lot of bad to see in this group. Anything below 6 or 7% is just about normal for NCAA wide receivers.

- The biggest player to watch out for here is Jordan Matthews who has a slightly above-average drop rate of 7.69%. There were a few 50/50 drops that I hedged on Matthews’ side for. He could realistically be anywhere between 7-11%. If you’re watching Matthews intently, keep an eye on his hands.

- I only have 2 dropped balls for Landry all season, that’s incredible.

It is interesting what Peshak says in his summary Paragraph: "So much of a WR’s numbers depend on the quarterback, so we can’t always use stats as effectively as we do for other positions".

My guess is Vanderbilt's QB does not outshine all the other WR's QBs. Something to keep in mind.

When in doubt, blame the other guy. Ultimately the author chose to publish his data, which is to say he thought it was meaningful enough to put his name on it.

 

[Milkman]

It's funny because all they are talking about is how Matthews has caught everything in camp so far. Not one word about drops like in Buffalo with Watkins or Detroit and Ebron.

 

[dhockster]

Drop rates could also be influenced by how effective a receiver is after the catch. By definition, a possession receiver needs to have a low drop rate because he is going to catch the ball and for the most part not have a high YAC. The Moss/TO/Marshall types have higher drop rates because they are probably concentrating not just on catching the ball but what they are going to do with it after the catch since they have the ability to do a lot with it after the catch.

Home run hitters have higher strikeout rates. Similar comparison.

Not saying that Matthews is a homerun hitter WR, but if he is, you can accept a higher drop rate and be happy.

 

[LawFitz]

Drop rates could also be influenced by how effective a receiver is after the catch. By definition, a possession receiver needs to have a low drop rate because he is going to catch the ball and for the most part not have a high YAC. The Moss/TO/Marshall types have higher drop rates because they are probably concentrating not just on catching the ball but what they are going to do with it after the catch since they have the ability to do a lot with it after the catch.

Home run hitters have higher strikeout rates. Similar comparison.

Not saying that Matthews is a homerun hitter WR, but if he is, you can accept a higher drop rate and be happy.

In 2-3 years time, Matthews is going to be a 6-3 225 lb all pro and we're going to be laughing about drop rates and BMI.

 

[Amused to Death]

Drop rates could also be influenced by how effective a receiver is after the catch. By definition, a possession receiver needs to have a low drop rate because he is going to catch the ball and for the most part not have a high YAC. The Moss/TO/Marshall types have higher drop rates because they are probably concentrating not just on catching the ball but what they are going to do with it after the catch since they have the ability to do a lot with it after the catch.

Home run hitters have higher strikeout rates. Similar comparison.

Not saying that Matthews is a homerun hitter WR, but if he is, you can accept a higher drop rate and be happy.

Looking over the lists of best and worst drop rates, its seems that stat is pretty meaningless when determining the league's best and worst receivers. Jason Avant is on the "best" list, yet he'd hardly be considered among the league's elite. Conversely, Wes Welker and Brandon Marshall both appear on the "worst" list.

Matthews has a drop rate around 8%, maybe as high as 10 or 11.

DeSean Jackson 12.95%

Terrell Owens 12.4%

Donald Driver 12.3%

Randy Moss 11.9%

Dwayne Bowe 11.6%

Brandon Marshall 11.6%

Michael Crabtree 11.3%

 

[Bigboy10182000]

3 players on the worst drop rates are potential hall of famers: Owens, Moss, Marshall

3 players on the best drop rates are potential hall of famers: Fitzgerald, Wayne, Bouldin

Drop rates don't seem to be an indicator of whether you are a great receiver or not.

This should be enough to get rid of the drop rate argument, no?

 

[werdnoynek]

All this discussion about drop rates and being a successful receiver is great and all - I agree with all of it.

I'm just saying his hands are not elite. It may not matter whatsoever, but why do people continue to say they are?

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Not saying that Matthews is a homerun hitter WR, but if he is, you can accept a higher drop rate and be happy.

What if Matthews is a DE? Could we accept an even higher drop rate?

 

[Brewtown]

Didn't Terrell Owens usually have a high drop rate? He had a nice career.

We’re going to start off by looking at the wide receivers whose primary job is to catch the ball and make plays. So let’s see which wideouts have done the best (and worst) job in this regard over the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%

Poor hands are poor hands. Are you trying to saying Matthews' poor hands mean he'll have a successful career?

I'm confused.

As far as I'm concerned you are always confused!

 

[Jrodicus]

Didn't Terrell Owens usually have a high drop rate? He had a nice career.

Were going to start off by looking at the wide receivers whose primary job is to catch the ball and make plays. So lets see which wideouts have done the best (and worst) job in this regard over the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%

Great post.

3 players on the worst drop rates are potential hall of famers: Owens, Moss, Marshall

3 players on the best drop rates are potential hall of famers: Fitzgerald, Wayne, Bouldin

Drop rates don't seem to be an indicator of whether you are a great receiver or not.

Agreed...

All I'm saying is that Matthews' hands are not (in any way, shape, or form) elite. Statistics confirm this.

There are people in here who are so infatuated with Matthews that they continue to just look past some of these stats and continually hyperbolize his "gifts".

I'm not disputing there are some great receivers who have been successful with a high drop rate.

Who is saying that he has "elite hands"?

 

[John Paul]

Review of targets from A&M game in '13:

http://www.collegefootballmetrics.com/cfm-blog/2014/04/a-review-of-every-pass-target-for-jordan-matthews-vs-texas-am-2013/

Review of targets from Georgia game in '13:

http://www.collegefootballmetrics.com/cfm-blog/2014/04/a-review-of-every-pass-target-for-jordan-matthews-vs-georgia-2013/

Review of targets from Ole Miss in '13:

http://www.collegefootballmetrics.com/cfm-blog/2014/04/a-review-of-every-pass-target-for-jordan-matthews-vs-ole-miss-2013/

Video from Ole Miss:

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jordan-matthews-vs-ole-miss-2013/

Video from Houston in '13:

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jordan-matthews-vs-houston-2013/

Video from South Carolina in '13:

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jordan-matthews-vs-houston-2013/

His hands measure at 10.5" so they are huge, Mock Draftable puts that in the 96th percentile range. When I watch game cutups on him I see one-handed catches or catches with a defender draped on him. I don't question his hands. Non-issue for me, someone said they were bad, people read it and repeated it. I looked at the film and didn't see a problem. Not saying he never dropped a thing, but the accusation was unsubstantiated IMO. So go ahead and pass on an awesome situation in dynasty if you want to. I did not.

The hands are showing up in OTAs and in camp thus far, I'm confident they will show up in regular season games too. With all that being said, I am not targeting him in redraft. It's dynasty and keeper league where I want him on my roster.

 

[Sir Psycho]

Chris Wesseling ‏@ChrisWesseling 1m
Very interesting RT @ZBerm: Big day for Jordan Matthews. Not just lining up with 1s, but also playing on outside.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

Chris Wesseling ‏@ChrisWesseling 1m

Very interesting RT @ZBerm: Big day for Jordan Matthews. Not just lining up with 1s, but also playing on outside.

Very interesting.

 

[Milkman]

He's blowing up! Still need to temper expectations for this year. He's targets will be a on the low end his first year. It's just very crowded and he's a rookie. Still can't wait to snag this guy in my Dynasty league.

 

[werdnoynek]

Didn't Terrell Owens usually have a high drop rate? He had a nice career.

Were going to start off by looking at the wide receivers whose primary job is to catch the ball and make plays. So lets see which wideouts have done the best (and worst) job in this regard over the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%

Great post.

3 players on the worst drop rates are potential hall of famers: Owens, Moss, Marshall

3 players on the best drop rates are potential hall of famers: Fitzgerald, Wayne, Bouldin

Drop rates don't seem to be an indicator of whether you are a great receiver or not.

Agreed...

All I'm saying is that Matthews' hands are not (in any way, shape, or form) elite. Statistics confirm this.

There are people in here who are so infatuated with Matthews that they continue to just look past some of these stats and continually hyperbolize his "gifts".

I'm not disputing there are some great receivers who have been successful with a high drop rate.

Who is saying that he has "elite hands"?

Milkman was previously, I haven't been reading his posts lately but I'd hazard to guess he still is.

 

[Milkman]

His hands are elite.

 

[dhockster]

All this discussion about drop rates and being a successful receiver is great and all - I agree with all of it.

I'm just saying his hands are not elite. It may not matter whatsoever, but why do people continue to say they are?

You are not just saying his hands are not elite. You said he had poor hands. There is a difference.

I would hazard that he has pretty good hands but his drop % is elevated somewhat because a lot of the routes he ran in college were screens where he was thinking about where he had to go after the catch to make it a successful play.

I am not saying his hands are elite because I have no bloody idea how one backs that up based on only his college career.

 

[Milkman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y085m52_Hhw

Sticky hands.

 

[cdubz]

I don't have the links, but I have Peshak's drop % for 14 WRs in this rookie class - average was 7.86% and median was 7.82%.

So......he basically has average hands according to that metric.

Looking at last year's class:

Patterson 8.11%

Allen 4.76%

Hopkins 7.69%

Austin 4.2%

Hunter 12.24%

Wheaton 10.2%

So it appears from early returns that lower drop % is a good thing, but higher general athleticism might be able to overcome this to an extent.

 

[werdnoynek]

All this discussion about drop rates and being a successful receiver is great and all - I agree with all of it.

I'm just saying his hands are not elite. It may not matter whatsoever, but why do people continue to say they are?

You are not just saying his hands are not elite. You said he had poor hands. There is a difference.

I would hazard that he has pretty good hands but his drop % is elevated somewhat because a lot of the routes he ran in college were screens where he was thinking about where he had to go after the catch to make it a successful play.

I am not saying his hands are elite because I have no bloody idea how one backs that up based on only his college career.

I did say poor, which could also mean not elite.

I'll admit poor is probably a bit harsh. Pretty good? Ehh, I'll give him that on a good day. The hype is out of control in here, mainly because all that's being posted is the positive stuff... majority are Eagles fluff pieces. He had a few drops and struggled a bit last week Thursday... no mention of that in here.

I don't come away impressed with him when I watch him - his hands are only a small part of that. I'm going to be watching him intently this week. Hopefully he gets more than just a couple of series... given the current depth chart, it appears he will.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Jordan Matthews - WR - Eagles

Eagles second-round WR Jordan Matthews ran with the starting offense at practice Tuesday.

With Riley Cooper (foot) in a boot and Jeremy Maclin getting a rest day, Matthews saw his most significant first-team action of the summer. He didn't disappoint, according to reports. Matthews wasn't just lining up in the slot where he's been most of camp, but also worked on the outside. Coach Chip Kelly loves big receivers. Matthews (6'3/212) has some re-draft appeal in the late rounds.

Source: Zach Berman on Twitter

Aug 5 - 1:56 PM

 

[ShaHBucks]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

 

[cdubz]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

 

[dhockster]

All this discussion about drop rates and being a successful receiver is great and all - I agree with all of it.

I'm just saying his hands are not elite. It may not matter whatsoever, but why do people continue to say they are?

You are not just saying his hands are not elite. You said he had poor hands. There is a difference.

I would hazard that he has pretty good hands but his drop % is elevated somewhat because a lot of the routes he ran in college were screens where he was thinking about where he had to go after the catch to make it a successful play.

I am not saying his hands are elite because I have no bloody idea how one backs that up based on only his college career.

I did say poor, which could also mean not elite.

I'll admit poor is probably a bit harsh. Pretty good? Ehh, I'll give him that on a good day. The hype is out of control in here, mainly because all that's being posted is the positive stuff... majority are Eagles fluff pieces. He had a few drops and struggled a bit last week Thursday... no mention of that in here.

I don't come away impressed with him when I watch him - his hands are only a small part of that. I'm going to be watching him intently this week. Hopefully he gets more than just a couple of series... given the current depth chart, it appears he will.

Thanks for conceding something. Hey, if you have watched him and are not impressed, that's great. All this talk is subjective and we won't know one way or another until he actually plays. I am an Eagles fan so I have some built in

bias in wanting him to do well. In addition, I believe you should be rewarded for working hard, and he fits that trait as well. It's all good. I appreciate the information you have provided in this thread.

 

[werdnoynek]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Right. Anyway, his catch rate was 71.3% according to this:

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/2/4/5377546/2013-college-football-receiving-stats-targets-catches

It's definitely above average.

A couple of other things that stood out:

His target percentage: 43.9% - which is the highest in the NCAA that I can see. Impressive.

His yards per catch and real yards per target ( 13.2 and 8.9 respectively ) are both very low, but we all knew that already.

There are some other interesting numbers like RYPR but I don't really like that "stat" much and don't really think it means much in this discussion.

ETA: Above is for 2013.

 

[ShaHBucks]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

 

[cdubz]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.

It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

 

[ShaHBucks]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

Because everyone from Larry Fitz on down drops passes. And there are stats that are proven to be more accurate in predicting WR success (much, much more accurate the Bloom too). Check the thread and you'll see some of them. I'm just saying his catch rate accounts for all of the typical excuses like QB play (Tebow was pretty accurate in college). It also clearly accounts for drops. He still dominated while being the lone weapon on his SEC team. I haven't looked at drop rates historically to know if it matters much. I haven't seen anyone do it, tbh, until now when trying to make a case against J. Matthews. I seen him make enough one handed catches and contested catches to not even question his hands. We'll see who's right soon.

What was his drop rate as a JR?

 

[cdubz]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

Because everyone from Larry Fitz on down drops passes. And there are stats that are proven to be more accurate in predicting WR success (much, much more accurate the Bloom too). Check the thread and you'll see some of them.I'm just saying his catch rate accounts for all of the typical excuses like QB play (Tebow was pretty accurate in college). It also clearly accounts for drops. He still dominated while being the lone weapon on his SEC team. I haven't looked at drop rates historically to know if it matters much. I haven't seen anyone do it, tbh, until now when trying to make a case against J. Matthews. I seen him make enough one handed catches and contested catches to not even question his hands. We'll see who's right soon.

What was his drop rate as a JR?

Did I ever say he is going to be a bust? I like him as a prospect. I think you might be taking this discussion of drop rate vs. catch rate a little too personally.

And if you look at the updated data I provided in this thread, I made the claim that his drop rate was roughly average relative to the full list of prospects Peshak charted this year and was in the same neighborhood as Patterson and Hopkins from last year.

Drop rate by itself is not a good barometer for whether a WR can play in the NFL or not. All else equal, which it rarely is, a lower drop rate is better for their prospects. I will also contend that drop rate is more informative than catch rate. Yes everyone drops passes, but that doesn't mean drop rate is a bad stat - it just means everyone will have non-zero values. Drop rate has the advantage of avoiding QB quality issues.

And to answer your question, that would require going back through every incompletion that he was targeted on as a Junior.

 

[Milkman]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.

It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

This isn't true because it's to subjective. A drop to one evaluator is not a drop to another. A couple swings either way and you have a wildly different drop rate. An example of this would be like this.

Jordan Matthews goes over the middle on a shallow crossing pattern. The QB throws a scorching pass a little high that hits him in the hands. Matthews dropped it. That's a drop in scouts eyes but in another scouts eyes that's on the QB. Could change Matthews drop rate from 7% to 6% on one play. If the QB had thrown it at a reasonable speed Matthews would have caught it. A good QB would have. What about if a defender is draped all over Matthews, doesn't get called for PI, and the ball hits Matthews in one of his hands? Drop? No drop? Could lower his drop rate to 5%.

This is why drop rates are meaningless in predicting future success. To subjective. Matthews has elite hands.

 

[ShaHBucks]

What about his catch rate? Drops are already factored into that.

Catch rate is effectively 1 - drop rate - uncatchable pass rate

Why pickup the uncatchable pass rate as well if you have the more relevant data of drop rate?

Drops are already factored into that. I'm not sure how how drop rate could be more relevant if it's apart of the catch rate equation. Drop rate is a stand alone statistic that is less effective on its own. There's more to playing WR then that.

I think I understand what you are saying originally, but this seems unresponsive to my point.It could be more effective on it's own because QB quality via uncatchable passes is ignored. If you have Tim Tebow vs. Peyton Manning throwing you the ball, you will have a lower catch rate with Tebow - but there shouldn't be much change in drop rate.

This is due to the nature of catch rate really being the aggregation of 2 things, the QB screwing up and WR screwing up. Drop rate focuses solely on WR screwups where as catch rate also absorbs the QB quality.

So why do you think that drop rate is less effective on its own?

Because everyone from Larry Fitz on down drops passes. And there are stats that are proven to be more accurate in predicting WR success (much, much more accurate the Bloom too). Check the thread and you'll see some of them.I'm just saying his catch rate accounts for all of the typical excuses like QB play (Tebow was pretty accurate in college). It also clearly accounts for drops. He still dominated while being the lone weapon on his SEC team. I haven't looked at drop rates historically to know if it matters much. I haven't seen anyone do it, tbh, until now when trying to make a case against J. Matthews. I seen him make enough one handed catches and contested catches to not even question his hands. We'll see who's right soon.

What was his drop rate as a JR?

Did I ever say he is going to be a bust? I like him as a prospect. I think you might be taking this discussion of drop rate vs. catch rate a little too personally.

And if you look at the updated data I provided in this thread, I made the claim that his drop rate was roughly average relative to the full list of prospects Peshak charted this year and was in the same neighborhood as Patterson and Hopkins from last year.

Drop rate by itself is not a good barometer for whether a WR can play in the NFL or not. All else equal, which it rarely is, a lower drop rate is better for their prospects. I will also contend that drop rate is more informative than catch rate. Yes everyone drops passes, but that doesn't mean drop rate is a bad stat - it just means everyone will have non-zero values. Drop rate has the advantage of avoiding QB quality issues.

And to answer your question, that would require going back through every incompletion that he was targeted on as a Junior.

That wasn't directed at you. Sorry if you took it that way. I don't really care anymore. I lost my lust for debates here. It's simply a we'll see how big of a factor it is. Not much more to talk about here

 

[cloppbeast]

Didn't Terrell Owens usually have a high drop rate? He had a nice career.

We’re going to start off by looking at the wide receivers whose primary job is to catch the ball and make plays. So let’s see which wideouts have done the best (and worst) job in this regard over the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons.

6 Terrell Owens FA 18 145 12.41%

Great post.

3 players on the worst drop rates are potential hall of famers: Owens, Moss, Marshall

3 players on the best drop rates are potential hall of famers: Fitzgerald, Wayne, Bouldin

Drop rates don't seem to be an indicator of whether you are a great receiver or not.

Tell that to Limas Sweed.

Owens and Marshall make up for their drops by getting open and picking up yards after the catch, and they are very good at it. You have only pointed out that even HOFers have their warts. Unless you put a player in a class with Owens and Marshall, drops matter.

 

[Milkman]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000374457/article/lesean-mccoy-jordan-matthews-is-best-of-rookie-wrs

We have high expectations for the No. 42 overall draft pick, including leading the team in receiving yards. One of the biggest mistakes of the offseason was 31 teams allowing Chip Kelly to get his hands on a talent of Matthews' caliber.

I'm not sure that will happen this year but he seems to be really impressing fellow players on his team.

 

[WagesOfZin]

here's the thing. talk about catch rates and elite hands. talk about measureables. talk about whatever you want to regarding what he has done prior to being drafted by the eagles. none of it matters. all that matters is what he's doing right now...and right now he appears to be fitting right in at worst. at best, he appears to be excelling. granted he hasn't played anyone wearing a different jersey yet, but good gravy the guy looks like the real deal to this point. if you've already made up your mind that matthews is fool's gold, shame on you. you're trying to be right rather than get it right. if you're on the other end of the spectrum and you think he's the 2nd coming, well...hopefully you're right and reports to this point support your argument. let's see what he does in live action. i'm extremely optimistic at this point, but still keeping perspective.

bottom line, dude's stock is rising...deservedly. to deny such is foolish.

 

[Brewtown]

here's the thing. talk about catch rates and elite hands. talk about measureables. talk about whatever you want to regarding what he has done prior to being drafted by the eagles. none of it matters. all that matters is what he's doing right now...and right now he appears to be fitting right in at worst. at best, he appears to be excelling. granted he hasn't played anyone wearing a different jersey yet, but good gravy the guy looks like the real deal to this point. if you've already made up your mind that matthews is fool's gold, shame on you. you're trying to be right rather than get it right. if you're on the other end of the spectrum and you think he's the 2nd coming, well...hopefully you're right and reports to this point support your argument. let's see what he does in live action. i'm extremely optimistic at this point, but still keeping perspective.

bottom line, dude's stock is rising...deservedly. to deny such is foolish.

BLOOM???

 

[werdnoynek]

here's the thing. talk about catch rates and elite hands. talk about measureables. talk about whatever you want to regarding what he has done prior to being drafted by the eagles. none of it matters. all that matters is what he's doing right now...and right now he appears to be fitting right in at worst. at best, he appears to be excelling. granted he hasn't played anyone wearing a different jersey yet, but good gravy the guy looks like the real deal to this point. if you've already made up your mind that matthews is fool's gold, shame on you. you're trying to be right rather than get it right. if you're on the other end of the spectrum and you think he's the 2nd coming, well...hopefully you're right and reports to this point support your argument. let's see what he does in live action. i'm extremely optimistic at this point, but still keeping perspective.

bottom line, dude's stock is rising...deservedly. to deny such is foolish.

http://youtu.be/d29VsG35DQM